Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.
I think the exact opposite! This election is the most interesting one that I can remember... but it's also the first GE in which I've been a campaigner rather than an observer so that might have something to do with it. Putting leaflets through doors excites me much more than reading opinion polls or watching leader debates/interviews do.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
Yes, the mythical "doorstep" always appears to confirm the view of the journalist/activist/politician talking about it.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
Now they have something to compare it to. I think Sunil posted earlier about polls swinging one way then the opposite in elections - 2010 understate labour, 2015 overstate labour, 2017 understate labour - is it going to swing the other way again?
Well quite a few polls in the last 48 hrs have seen Corbyn narrowing the gap on the leadership ratings, which is what we saw in 2017.
There is a fantastic photo, by the way, of Boris shearing a sheep at the telegraph webpage at the moment. I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up. My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
Even the BBC seems to be enjoying it:
Mr Johnson said the Tories had high ambitions in Wales, including resolving the long delays at the Brynglas Tunnels along the M4 at Newport. He said the tunnels were blocked "like the nostrils of the Welsh dragon", adding his party would be the "Vicks inhaler". The visit to Wales began in Powys with a bid to court the farming vote at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair in Llanelwedd, joking how Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would "fleece the entire country".
I've been very wary of making predictions this election because, like Manuel and Jon Snow, I know nothing.
But here's one.
I think there's a much higher than usual probability of a black swan event, one that will do serious damage to one of the party campaigns. Two reasons for this.
First, there is essentially no debate on policies. Partly it's that the Conservatives and Labour are so far apart that you genuinely can't have a cut-and-thrust debate that doesn't just devolve to "heartless Tories"/"unaffordable Marxists", but it's also that the Conservative manifesto, in particular, is so amazingly policy-light that there really isn't anything to report on.
This means that any single incident, a Jennifer's Ear or a Gillian Duffy, has the potential to seize the headlines for days on end - because there really isn't anything else happening. If something of substance does happen, the affected party will find it hard to move back to their "grid"... because the grid is either empty (for the Conservatives) or fantasyland (for Labour). "Hey guys, ok you've had your fun, how about reporting on our social care proposals tomorrow?" "But... you don't have any."
Second, the potential for unearthing something troublesome about a candidate is so much greater than previously. Every party is aware that problems can lie in candidates' Twitter or Facebook post histories, yet every day, it seems, another dodgy post is unearthed. Now apply that to all the other open-source intelligence out there. Can a party be sure that there isn't a YouTube video from 2008 with a candidate saying something outrageous? Or that a bit of automated analysis on networks of directors in the Companies House open data won't reveal some Russian money?
This isn't new: it's the sort of thing Bellingcat does superbly. If the parties have not been awake to this, they should have been. I find it difficult to believe that neither the parties, nor any single newspaper, nor the massed ranks of Corbynista partisans, are looking in this direction.
By definition you can't predict black swans. But I would not be at all surprised to see one.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
She might lose her seat...
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
YES got 38.8% in 2014 on Turnout of 91% In 2015 the SNP Candidate won with 40.3% on Turnout of 81.9% (the highest in the whole UK) In 2017 the SNP Candidate lost with 30.3% on Turnout of 78.8%
35% is almost certainly enough for Swinson to hold.
I hope she hangs on. It would be nice to see if she grows up
There is a fantastic photo, by the way, of Boris shearing a sheep at the telegraph webpage at the moment. I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up. My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
IMO his biggest attraction for many people (particularly apoliticals) is that he appears to not take himself at all seriously. And his main strength is also his main weakness. Because it is that very same thing - more precisely the sense that he takes nothing seriously - which turns off many other people, the more thoughtful types.
Serious question - is it so awful for a country to have a leader who is not ideological?
He does have a habit of hinting at some bombshell poll, which ends up being a big of a damp squib.
They've only recently been a bit of a set of damp squibs because they've consistently reported much the same thing. When you put their findings in the context of the 2017 result, they look a lot more interesting.
There is a fantastic photo, by the way, of Boris shearing a sheep at the telegraph webpage at the moment. I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up. My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
IMO his biggest attraction for many people (particularly apoliticals) is that he appears to not take himself at all seriously. And his main strength is also his main weakness. Because it is that very same thing - more precisely the sense that he takes nothing seriously - which turns off many other people, the more thoughtful types.
Serious question - is it so awful for a country to have a leader who is not ideological?
It would be nice to have one that believed in something, anything, other than his own entitlement to sit in the chair.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
He was the one I liked the least in the Brown government. And then he lost his seat and gave a decent and generous concession speech, and he turned almost instantly into a human. It wasn't the strictly effect for me (oh, the inanity) but an interview I heard with him on the radio a couple of weeks after. Came across as totally normal. Why can't politicians do this while they're in office? I think they spend so much time in the Westminster bubble that they think the constant baiting of the opposition is a normal way to behave, rather than making you appear a jerk.
I think perhaps because it is feared it will be taken as a sign of weakness? Like you the Strictly thing held no interest for me at all. But I saw glimpses of his human side and willingness to appear normal whilst he was still in office and certainly my view of him was confirmed once he had lost his seat. I was particularly impressed hearing him talk about his very acute speech impediment and how he overcame it on an ongoing basis.
Mr Johnson said the Tories had high ambitions in Wales, including resolving the long delays at the Brynglas Tunnels along the M4 at Newport. He said the tunnels were blocked "like the nostrils of the Welsh dragon", adding his party would be the "Vicks inhaler". The visit to Wales began in Powys with a bid to court the farming vote at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair in Llanelwedd, joking how Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would "fleece the entire country".
Boris is the sort of d*ckhead every group of mates has; you roll your eyes but secretly love him.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
The affection for politicians past and disdain for the present batch always reminds me of the conversation about art between M. Danglars & The Count of Monte Cristo
“If you will permit me, I shall be happy to show you my picture gallery, composed entirely of works by the ancient masters—warranted as such. Not a modern picture among them. I cannot endure the modern school of painting.”
“You are perfectly right in objecting to them, for this one great fault—that they have not yet had time to become old.”
Yes, "X was better back then" is usually bollox, regardless of what "X" is. Films, music, painting, TV, fashion, pubs, buildings, "things", whatever.
But politics? That might just be an exception to the rule. It does seem particularly crass and dumbed down atm.
Mr Johnson said the Tories had high ambitions in Wales, including resolving the long delays at the Brynglas Tunnels along the M4 at Newport. He said the tunnels were blocked "like the nostrils of the Welsh dragon", adding his party would be the "Vicks inhaler". The visit to Wales began in Powys with a bid to court the farming vote at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair in Llanelwedd, joking how Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would "fleece the entire country".
Boris is the sort of d*ckhead every group of mates has; you roll your eyes but secretly love him.
Even when he doesn't stand his round. And goes off with your girlfriend.
Who would be acting leader, as Tom Watson has gone?
Corbyn. As Blair did in 2007, and as virtually all Labour leaders did prior to Brown, other than when they died in office.
On which basis, and on the principle that Theresa May was adjudged by Betfair to have stood down only when Boris Johnson took over, is 1.34 on Corbyn surviving to 2020 free money?
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
Newsnight think they are going to need a double-decker outrage bus when Boris gets elected?
Newsnight tradition innit. Paul Mason IIRC who is about as Marxist as you can get (who tim tried to persuade us was middle of the road,) now another hard leftie joins the list./
What's that noise? The sound of people running away from Labour Party if another Corbynite is elected. The Tory lead currently is a shocking indictment of this weak, incompetent, non engaging leadership cult that is ideological, dogmatic, backward, class and conflict -ridden.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
But there's the rub - I only see Ed Balls returning to front line politics if and when Labour becomes re-electable. Keir Starmer as leader would be a meaningful move in such a direction, but I imagine the membership will instead opt for an out and out leftie to succeed Corbyn.
Does anyone know what the Tory poll lead would be if all the Labour waverers firmed up behind Corbyn *and* there was a 2-3% swing from LD to Labour?
I expect Tory backsliding to be virtually negligible but I could easily see the above happening.
Would 40% of the population back Labour this time? In the absence of a Tory dementia tax, a free pass for the Labour manifesto, the exposure of weakness suffered by May, the chaos engendered by the terrible attacks during GE2017 that gave at least specious credibility to Corbyn's argument that the police were underfunded? So far - thank God - the perfect storm that boosted him so much last time just hasn't materialised so far.
And every day Boris and the Tories maintain a big lead means more postal votes locking that lead in as a partial insurance against a last-minute tightening.
Look, I'm trying to be optimistic, ok? I'll even throw in one extra bonus of a winter campaign: it blunts the edge Labour has in the ground game, since canvassing's just no fun in this weather...
Damn! A Welsh poll due in eleven minutes and I have to go and pick the kids up. I will be VERY disappointed if I return and the political landscape is still largely intact...
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
Newsnight think they are going to need a double-decker outrage bus when Boris gets elected?
Newsnight tradition innit. Paul Mason IIRC who is about as Marxist as you can get (who tim tried to persuade us was middle of the road,) now another hard leftie joins the list./
Damn! A Welsh poll due in eleven minutes and I have to go and pick the kids up. I will be VERY disappointed if I return and the political landscape is still largely intact...
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
The affection for politicians past and disdain for the present batch always reminds me of the conversation about art between M. Danglars & The Count of Monte Cristo
“If you will permit me, I shall be happy to show you my picture gallery, composed entirely of works by the ancient masters—warranted as such. Not a modern picture among them. I cannot endure the modern school of painting.”
“You are perfectly right in objecting to them, for this one great fault—that they have not yet had time to become old.”
Yes, "X was better back then" is usually bollox, regardless of what "X" is. Films, music, painting, TV, fashion, pubs, buildings, "things", whatever.
But politics? That might just be an exception to the rule. It does seem particularly crass and dumbed down atm.
Maybe, but I seem to remember PB people speaking fondly for Brown/Blair/Kennedy when EdM/Clegg led their parties
It’s easier to express liking for people who can’t do anything wrong now, while ignoring the things they did wrong then. They can’t let you down.
I was wondering if OGH is going to downplay the Tory chances to push up his chances of winning the bet. He is in a privileged position
That is a post that could be very badly misinterpreted and probably not something you want to be saying. On a betting site it is a far more offensive suggestion than many of the more lurid swearing posts we sometimes indulge in on here.
In fairness to her, she's the only Continuity Corbyn (CoCo?) candidate I can see actually doing reasonably well. She has at least something in the way of gravitas that is totally lacking from the likes of Rayner, Pidcock, Butler etc.
In this country gravitas is not required to be an electorally successful leader of a big political party. Such is about to be confirmed beyond all doubt 17 days from now.
Hmm, you're right that "gravitas" isn't quite the word I'm looking for. "Substance" isn't much better. "Presence"?
Alternatively, is it perhaps the case that the major party leader with the most of [whatever the right word is] is currently ahead in the polls?
Are we listing New Order album titles?
Well, if we allow Joy Division, how about "New Dawn Fades"...?
He was the one I liked the least in the Brown government. And then he lost his seat and gave a decent and generous concession speech, and he turned almost instantly into a human. It wasn't the strictly effect for me (oh, the inanity) but an interview I heard with him on the radio a couple of weeks after. Came across as totally normal. Why can't politicians do this while they're in office? I think they spend so much time in the Westminster bubble that they think the constant baiting of the opposition is a normal way to behave, rather than making you appear a jerk.
I think perhaps because it is feared it will be taken as a sign of weakness? Like you the Strictly thing held no interest for me at all. But I saw glimpses of his human side and willingness to appear normal whilst he was still in office and certainly my view of him was confirmed once he had lost his seat. I was particularly impressed hearing him talk about his very acute speech impediment and how he overcame it on an ongoing basis.
Been listening to Ed Millibands 'Reasons to be Cheerful' podcasts while on the bike, treadmill & so on at the gym. Comes across as a rather gentle, but thoughtful and self-deprecating chap, who nevertheless learns from mistakes and thinks about what he's doing. Labour could do a lot worse than go back to him.
The affection for politicians past and disdain for the present batch always reminds me of the conversation about art between M. Danglars & The Count of Monte Cristo
“If you will permit me, I shall be happy to show you my picture gallery, composed entirely of works by the ancient masters—warranted as such. Not a modern picture among them. I cannot endure the modern school of painting.”
“You are perfectly right in objecting to them, for this one great fault—that they have not yet had time to become old.”
Touch of class there, Iam! Not just a pretty face, but a man of letters too.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
I really don't understand that. I always found him a very human and sympathetic figure. But obviously you know the party better. I just think it is a shame.
To be clear, I am not and have never been a member of the Labour Party. My posts contain no inside knowledge.
If Labour have gained that with the WASPI announcement, it will encourage Labour to promise even more giveaways. Worrying for the Tories, but it's still a 7 point lead, and I reckon they would have snapped your arm off if you'd offered that at the start of the campaign.
Who would be acting leader, as Tom Watson has gone?
Corbyn. As Blair did in 2007, and as virtually all Labour leaders did prior to Brown, other than when they died in office.
On which basis, and on the principle that Theresa May was adjudged by Betfair to have stood down only when Boris Johnson took over, is 1.34 on Corbyn surviving to 2020 free money?
I would review the rules very carefully but it looks a good price to me, if it's as you've said.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
I really don't understand that. I always found him a very human and sympathetic figure. But obviously you know the party better. I just think it is a shame.
To be clear, I am not and have never been a member of the Labour Party. My posts contain no inside knowledge.
Does anyone know what the Tory poll lead would be if all the Labour waverers firmed up behind Corbyn *and* there was a 2-3% swing from LD to Labour?
I expect Tory backsliding to be virtually negligible but I could easily see the above happening.
Would 40% of the population back Labour this time? In the absence of a Tory dementia tax, a free pass for the Labour manifesto, the exposure of weakness suffered by May, the chaos engendered by the terrible attacks during GE2017 that gave at least specious credibility to Corbyn's argument that the police were underfunded? So far - thank God - the perfect storm that boosted him so much last time just hasn't materialised so far.
And every day Boris and the Tories maintain a big lead means more postal votes locking that lead in as a partial insurance against a last-minute tightening.
Look, I'm trying to be optimistic, ok? I'll even throw in one extra bonus of a winter campaign: it blunts the edge Labour has in the ground game, since canvassing's just no fun in this weather...
"And every day Boris and the Tories maintain a big lead means more postal votes locking that lead in as a partial insurance against a last-minute tightening." Indeed so ... which reminds me, I'm still waiting to see those immaculately manicured, purple varnished finger nails feature when inserting Smithsonian postal votes into a Bedford pillar box.
“ Just three weeks ago, there was a fifteen-point gap between the two men on a ‘best Prime Minister’ question. Now, that gap has shrunk to just five points.”
If Labour have gained that with the WASPI announcement, it will encourage Labour to promise even more giveaways. Worrying for the Tories, but it's still a 7 point lead, and I reckon they would have snapped your arm off if you'd offered that at the start of the campaign.
Survation 1 day of 3 was including BJ QT Car Crash ICM 2 days of 3 was including BJ QT Car Crash Waits for first poll entirely after BJ QT Car Crash
40% / 37% ENTIRELY Possible with COMRES Still double fig leads with most pollsters though
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Comments
Mr Johnson said the Tories had high ambitions in Wales, including resolving the long delays at the Brynglas Tunnels along the M4 at Newport. He said the tunnels were blocked "like the nostrils of the Welsh dragon", adding his party would be the "Vicks inhaler". The visit to Wales began in Powys with a bid to court the farming vote at the Royal Welsh Winter Fair in Llanelwedd, joking how Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would "fleece the entire country".
But here's one.
I think there's a much higher than usual probability of a black swan event, one that will do serious damage to one of the party campaigns. Two reasons for this.
First, there is essentially no debate on policies. Partly it's that the Conservatives and Labour are so far apart that you genuinely can't have a cut-and-thrust debate that doesn't just devolve to "heartless Tories"/"unaffordable Marxists", but it's also that the Conservative manifesto, in particular, is so amazingly policy-light that there really isn't anything to report on.
This means that any single incident, a Jennifer's Ear or a Gillian Duffy, has the potential to seize the headlines for days on end - because there really isn't anything else happening. If something of substance does happen, the affected party will find it hard to move back to their "grid"... because the grid is either empty (for the Conservatives) or fantasyland (for Labour). "Hey guys, ok you've had your fun, how about reporting on our social care proposals tomorrow?" "But... you don't have any."
Second, the potential for unearthing something troublesome about a candidate is so much greater than previously. Every party is aware that problems can lie in candidates' Twitter or Facebook post histories, yet every day, it seems, another dodgy post is unearthed. Now apply that to all the other open-source intelligence out there. Can a party be sure that there isn't a YouTube video from 2008 with a candidate saying something outrageous? Or that a bit of automated analysis on networks of directors in the Companies House open data won't reveal some Russian money?
This isn't new: it's the sort of thing Bellingcat does superbly. If the parties have not been awake to this, they should have been. I find it difficult to believe that neither the parties, nor any single newspaper, nor the massed ranks of Corbynista partisans, are looking in this direction.
By definition you can't predict black swans. But I would not be at all surprised to see one.
I expect Tory backsliding to be virtually negligible but I could easily see the above happening.
https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/skys-lewis-goodall-to-join-bbc-newsnight-as-policy-editor/
There were posts late last week saying fieldwork for it had finished.
But politics? That might just be an exception to the rule. It does seem particularly crass and dumbed down atm.
Cuz he's a legend.....
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1198987000080154625
Just the same as people thinking their football team is going to win (or that the referee is biased against their team!)
And every day Boris and the Tories maintain a big lead means more postal votes locking that lead in as a partial insurance against a last-minute tightening.
Look, I'm trying to be optimistic, ok? I'll even throw in one extra bonus of a winter campaign: it blunts the edge Labour has in the ground game, since canvassing's just no fun in this weather...
10 minutes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-50546115
We definitely don't want a fence-sitter I'm with you on that one.
Con 41
Lab 34
Lib 13
Brex 4
Oh dear.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)
via @ICMResearch, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov
It’s easier to express liking for people who can’t do anything wrong now, while ignoring the things they did wrong then. They can’t let you down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsT_PvMR4j4
SNP surge in Wales shock.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/03/can-voters-outside-scotland-vote-snp
On the slide big time.
People starting to see through the clown?
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)
via
@ICMResearch
, 22 - 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 Nov
Hey I rather like that - Hats off me.
Indeed so ... which reminds me, I'm still waiting to see those immaculately manicured, purple varnished finger nails feature when inserting Smithsonian postal votes into a Bedford pillar box.
Which would be in line with an 11.4% Tory lead nationwide.
ICM 2 days of 3 was including BJ QT Car Crash
Waits for first poll entirely after BJ QT Car Crash
40% / 37% ENTIRELY Possible with COMRES
Still double fig leads with most pollsters though