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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We could be just 18 days away from the next LAB leadership contest

The Friday afternoon’s following general elections almost always see at least one party leader stepping down. Given Corbyn has indicated that he will go if LAB register a fourth successive general election defeat then just 18 days from today a party leadership race could begin.

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camel

First? or second? Or third?

Like Houghton and Sunderland South.

Roll on the 12th.

camel

There's a deficit of BAME candidates here.

The next BAME leader of a major political party will be either Chukka or Rishi Sunak. Labour, as always, are late to tjhe diversity party.

Piddy will have to suffice. 18/1 on Skybet, whocih is the value tip of the day. Everyone else has her on at 10s.

PeterMannion

3rd

Like Becky Bibbly-Bobbly

eek

Surely Keir Starmer's raison d'être is Brexit. A tory majority makes that reason disappear which opens up an interesting set of options.

Nigel_Foremain

Long-Bailey would be continuity stupidity. Confusing that she has a hyphenated name, as it is the sort of affectation one normally sees with low born Tories with chips on their shoulders like Rees-Mogg .

Richard_Nabavi

Not a strong field, is it?

MarqueeMark

Kier Royale, Rebecca Long-Drop, Laura Pillock.... They can all have a go and Boris will see them all off.

Search in vain for Hard-Hat Man standing by a hand-crafted banner saying they ❤ any of them......

Endillion

Lovely stuff.

Worth noting that there are a whole bunch of interesting interplays between this market, and the wider GE (as well as the "Corbyn to leave office by..." market). For example, I reckon Pidcock becomes more likely, the longer the Corbyn era goes on. If Labour go down to a heavy defeat in two weeks then a) she might lose her seat, b) there is less appetite for a continuity candidate and c) potentially fewer left-wing MPs to put her on the ballot.

I don't really get this idea that it'll likely be a woman because the party establishment wants one. Surely the Labour party is now set up, for better or worse, as heavily member-led and outright rejects attempts to impose top-down requirements such as this? If the members want, say, Barry Gardiner, they'll pick Barry Gardiner.

Casino_Royale

Emily Thornberry or Ed Balls (not in Parliament, obvs) would be the best picks.

Alphabet_Soup

Who will the three-quid Tory trolls rally behind next time? It worked so well in 2015 they must be feeling quietly confident.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Who would be acting leader, as Tom Watson has gone?

Fysics_Teacher

Endillion said:

Lovely stuff.

Worth noting that there are a whole bunch of interesting interplays between this market, and the wider GE (as well as the "Corbyn to leave office by..." market). For example, I reckon Pidcock becomes more likely, the longer the Corbyn era goes on. If Labour go down to a heavy defeat in two weeks then a) she might lose her seat, b) there is less appetite for a continuity candidate and c) potentially fewer left-wing MPs to put her on the ballot.

I don't really get this idea that it'll likely be a woman because the party establishment wants one. Surely the Labour party is now set up, for better or worse, as heavily member-led and outright rejects attempts to impose top-down requirements such as this? If the members want, say, Barry Gardiner, they'll pick Barry Gardiner.

In 2016 the Tories had an all women short list, although in the end the election itself was cancelled.

wooliedyed

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Who would be acting leader, as Tom Watson has gone?

NEC pick

alex_

Has Thornberry been deliberately keeping her head down this campaign, or is she under serious pressure in her seat?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

wooliedyed said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Who would be acting leader, as Tom Watson has gone?

NEC pick

Christ.

Burgon it is, then.

Sunil_Prasannan

MarqueeMark said:

Kier Royale, Rebecca Long-Drop, Laura Pillock.... They can all have a go and Boris will see them all off.

Search in vain for Hard-Hat Man standing by a hand-crafted banner saying they ❤ any of them......

Rebecca Long-Barrier!

madmacs

Endillion said:

Lovely stuff.

Worth noting that there are a whole bunch of interesting interplays between this market, and the wider GE (as well as the "Corbyn to leave office by..." market). For example, I reckon Pidcock becomes more likely, the longer the Corbyn era goes on. If Labour go down to a heavy defeat in two weeks then a) she might lose her seat, b) there is less appetite for a continuity candidate and c) potentially fewer left-wing MPs to put her on the ballot.

I don't really get this idea that it'll likely be a woman because the party establishment wants one. Surely the Labour party is now set up, for better or worse, as heavily member-led and outright rejects attempts to impose top-down requirements such as this? If the members want, say, Barry Gardiner, they'll pick Barry Gardiner.

Not sure about c. A lot of Labour "moderates" are standing down or may lose. Relacements for the moderates or defectors are from my reading of Labour List, suported by Momentum. I would suggest that after the GE the parliamentary party will be more Corbynite even if not led by Corbyn.

llef

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

SunnyJim

Is there still a sizable rump of moderate Labour MP's who would look to split away if another hard-left leader was elected?

Anorak

Alphabet_Soup said:

Who will the three-quid Tory trolls rally behind next time? It worked so well in 2015 they must be feeling quietly confident.

Not sure the membership needs any help this time around. A bunch happy with JC despite his dismal popularity and dodgy associates (past and present) is not going to vote with their heads.

IanB2

It’ll have to be a woman, no question.

Beyond that it depends on how badly they lose, and what the assumed reasons settle on being during the aftermath. That the likes of Pidcock are even in the betting indicates that they aren’t overwhelmed with talent.

camel

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Kier Royale, Rebecca Long-Drop, Laura Pillock.... They can all have a go and Boris will see them all off.

Search in vain for Hard-Hat Man standing by a hand-crafted banner saying they ❤ any of them......

Rebecca Long-Barrier!

Rebecca Long-Drop. One for Priti Patel and other hang 'em types there.

Mexicanpete

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Tories ten points ahead?

MarqueeMark

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Kier Royale, Rebecca Long-Drop, Laura Pillock.... They can all have a go and Boris will see them all off.

Search in vain for Hard-Hat Man standing by a hand-crafted banner saying they ❤ any of them......

Rebecca Long-Barrier!

Rebecca Long-Train-Running

MaxPB

alex_ said:

Has Thornberry been deliberately keeping her head down this campaign, or is she under serious pressure in her seat?

I seriously doubt that Labour will lose Islington South and Finsbury. If they do then they might finish under 150 seats nationally, it would be a proper disaster.

Stark_Dawning

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

Alistair

Please do not talk about the next Lab Leader market. It is too painful.

TOPPING

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

Plus he's a *** so would cut off at the knees the Lab AS attack.

geoffw

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

camel

SunnyJim said:

Is there still a sizable rump of moderate Labour MP's who would look to split away if another hard-left leader was elected?

I could imagine one or two defecting to the LibDems. Sit tight for 5 years then chicken run.

kinabalu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUk8E2U4pgc

MarqueeMark

New leader depends on whether Labour wants to become a Party of Rejoin - or accepts we are out and gone from the EU. And it may well be there are two distinct camps within "Labour".

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

Please do not talk about the next Lab Leader market. It is too painful.

Yep - we should move onto Iowa State polling instead.

MarqueeMark

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Brexit ripping up the valleys?

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Not a strong field, is it?

They all look rubbish because they are up against that Titan Richard Burgon.

I also have Diane Abbott in my portfolio at 100/1 so if it has to be a woman then it is has to be her.

camel

kinabalu said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUk8E2U4pgc

Piddy was educated at MMU. Having just watched her maiden speech, I imagine she will do her Masters at East Anglia, Lancaster, York, or one of the other Pat Glass universities.

I'll get my coat.

Casino_Royale

Nigel_Foremain said:

Long-Bailey would be continuity stupidity. Confusing that she has a hyphenated name, as it is the sort of affectation one normally sees with low born Tories with chips on their shoulders like Rees-Mogg .

Rebecca Wrong-Daily.

She also seems to be almost entirely humourless, and looks serious even when she does force a ‘smile’, which must be the socialist ideology that humour is somehow bourgeois.

Artist

Corbyn will stay in place regardless of an election defeat and usher in a successor. Delaying his resignation would let the dust settle on the election result and avoid members making a knee jerk switch towards a moderate candidate. Also Brexit would be less of an issue after the withdrawal agreement has been passed, which would take some of the sting out of Starmer's hopes as well.

MarqueeMark

Labour’s Shadow Housing Minister, Sarah Jones, was all over the shop about WASPI women on Politics Live today.

Labour getting WASPI stung?

Casino_Royale

Mexicanpete said:

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Tories ten points ahead?

It better not be the vanguard of a new Corbogasm.

There’s a special place in hell for poll rampers.

Pulpstar

kinabalu said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUk8E2U4pgc

The way Pidcock looks now compared to then shows how unhealthy being an MP can be if you're not careful.

IanB2

FPT:

MikeL said:

Con Maj was 1.47 at 4am this morning.

It's now 1.41.

That's not passage of time - one morning is trivial vs total length of time to go.

Surely there must be some inside info somewhere?

A thoughtful look at the MRP indicates that there is at least a chance of another balanced parliament, whereas a traditional reading of the national VI has been suggesting that there isn’t. And of course there is always YouGov’s analysis of their own data.

Casino_Royale

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

My book likes this.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Artist said:

Corbyn will stay in place regardless of election result and usher in a successor. Delaying his resignation would let the dust settle on the election result and avoid members making a knee jerk switch towards a moderate candidate. Also Brexit will be less of an issue after the withdrawal agreement has been passed, which would take some of the sting out of Starmer's hopes as well.

Isn't the EHRC report due in January? I can't imagine a Shami style 'nothing to see here' this time.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Long-Bailey would be continuity stupidity. Confusing that she has a hyphenated name, as it is the sort of affectation one normally sees with low born Tories with chips on their shoulders like Rees-Mogg .

Rebecca Wrong-Daily.

She also seems to be almost entirely humourless, and looks serious even when she does force a ‘smile’, which must be the socialist ideology that humour is somehow bourgeois.

Comrades!
Surely wanting to become Leader, nay, even PM, is bourgeois reactionary ideology?

PeterMannion

Garry Bardiner cruelly overlooked in favour of his brother?

Richard_Nabavi

MarqueeMark said:

Labour’s Shadow Housing Minister, Sarah Jones, was all over the shop about WASPI women on Politics Live today.

Labour getting WASPI stung?

You have to admire their ingenuity. Faced with the seemingly intractable problem of how to make their manifesto look even more absurd, they came up with a brilliant solution - blowing nearly three times the total annual adult social care budget on a bung to the undeserving.

Theuniondivvie

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Awan-Scully is the biggest political fan dancer going. While recent Welsh polls have been pretty shit for Lab I don't think they've particularly come out of the blue or deserved his hype.

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

FPT:

MikeL said:

Con Maj was 1.47 at 4am this morning.

It's now 1.41.

That's not passage of time - one morning is trivial vs total length of time to go.

Surely there must be some inside info somewhere?

A thoughtful look at the MRP indicates that there is at least a chance of another balanced parliament, whereas a traditional reading of the national VI has been suggesting that there isn’t. And of course there is always YouGov’s analysis of their own data.

Sometimes the market just herds for no real reason. So it could be nothing. Or it could be punters sensing no major fallout from the Tory manifesto, other than it’s a bit boring and not quite as profligate as trailed, and so firming up their positions.

DougSeal

MarqueeMark said:

New leader depends on whether Labour wants to become a Party of Rejoin - or accepts we are out and gone from the EU. And it may well be there are two distinct camps within "Labour".

A “Party of Rejoin” by definition would accept we have left the EU. Otherwise it would not be so described.

Given the imminent and inevitably catastrophic effects of Brexit all parties will, if they have any sense, become Rejoin parties to a greater or lesser extent before the end of the next Parliament.

Casino_Royale

I think I’m going to be Group-Captain Shitmypants for the next 17 days.

Cookie

TOPPING said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

Plus he's a *** so would cut off at the knees the Lab AS attack.

Alas, EdM was terrible. He was the only Labour leader since Neil Kinnock to see the Conservatives actually win a majority. The bacon sandwich and the Ed Stone were amusing because they were emblematic of the way he was viewed. We only remember him fondly because his successor so wildly redefined the bounds of 'terrible'.
Not that I wouldn't have him back in a shot, mind. Let's go back to the days when the labour party at least tried not to bankrupt the country.

GIN1138

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Are we going to get our first KABOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM of the campaign?

Fenster

Artist said:

Corbyn will stay in place regardless of an election defeat and usher in a successor. Delaying his resignation would let the dust settle on the election result and avoid members making a knee jerk switch towards a moderate candidate. Also Brexit would be less of an issue after the withdrawal agreement has been passed, which would take some of the sting out of Starmer's hopes as well.

If he loses to a 100-majority I would advise him to stay in place and argue that Labour only lost because they weren't left-wing enough.

DougSeal

Artist said:

Corbyn will stay in place regardless of an election defeat and usher in a successor. Delaying his resignation would let the dust settle on the election result and avoid members making a knee jerk switch towards a moderate candidate. Also Brexit would be less of an issue after the withdrawal agreement has been passed, which would take some of the sting out of Starmer's hopes as well.

After the next election we won’t be having any more elections, or political parties save for the Tories.

Endillion

Casino_Royale said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Long-Bailey would be continuity stupidity. Confusing that she has a hyphenated name, as it is the sort of affectation one normally sees with low born Tories with chips on their shoulders like Rees-Mogg .

Rebecca Wrong-Daily.

She also seems to be almost entirely humourless, and looks serious even when she does force a ‘smile’, which must be the socialist ideology that humour is somehow bourgeois.

Er, Rebecca Prolongs-Ceilidh.

In fairness to her, she's the only Continuity Corbyn (CoCo?) candidate I can see actually doing reasonably well. She has at least something in the way of gravitas that is totally lacking from the likes of Rayner, Pidcock, Butler etc.

Penddu2

I have not heard any whispers from the poll, but based on some feedback from the streets:
Corbyn is strongly disliked - but Tories still toxic in much of Wales. Brexit Party not getting anywhere. Plaid doing well in places but not widely. LDs disappearing without a trace.

Expect Welsh polls to show repeat of 2017.... but on the other hand Scully did say Blimey again....

Casino_Royale

I will vote for any party (including Corbyn) that passes a law banning poll ramping.

Sunil_Prasannan

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

The rightwing smear against Ed Miliband angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration

Cookie

Penddu2 said:

I have not heard any whispers from the poll, but based on some feedback from the streets:
Corbyn is strongly disliked - but Tories still toxic in much of Wales. Brexit Party not getting anywhere. Plaid doing well in places but not widely. LDs disappearing without a trace.

Expect Welsh polls to show repeat of 2017.... but on the other hand Scully did say Blimey again....

I have taken the plunge and wagered £5 on PC winning Ronddha. If Labour are collapsing, it will be in places like the valleys that it collapses the most. In most valleys seats they can bear this easily, as voters aren't going to switch to the Cons (or indeed the LDs) - but where PC has a presence there might be a target to switch to. 15-1 on Betfair if you agree with my logic! To be clear, I don't expect this to happen, but I don't think it's as unlikely as the odds suggest.

Foxy

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

PeterMannion

Casino_Royale said:

I will vote for any party (including Corbyn) that passes a law banning poll ramping.

What about roll pamping?

timmo

What about Dawn Butler..she is very popular within the party

Penddu2

Cookie said:

Penddu2 said:

I have not heard any whispers from the poll, but based on some feedback from the streets:
Corbyn is strongly disliked - but Tories still toxic in much of Wales. Brexit Party not getting anywhere. Plaid doing well in places but not widely. LDs disappearing without a trace.

Expect Welsh polls to show repeat of 2017.... but on the other hand Scully did say Blimey again....

I have taken the plunge and wagered £5 on PC winning Ronddha. If Labour are collapsing, it will be in places like the valleys that it collapses the most. In most valleys seats they can bear this easily, as voters aren't going to switch to the Cons (or indeed the LDs) - but where PC has a presence there might be a target to switch to. 15-1 on Betfair if you agree with my logic! To be clear, I don't expect this to happen, but I don't think it's as unlikely as the odds suggest.

They might win Rhondda....but Ronddha not so much....

Philip_Thompson

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Doesn't he post something like that every time?

Anorak

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

Because he's been so vocal about it over the last few years??!?

More spine in an amoeba.

OnlyLivingBoy

Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.

timmo

Philip_Thompson said:

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Doesn't he post something like that every time?

What time release?

GIN1138

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

It's his fault Labour got saddled with Corbyn in the first place.

MarqueeMark

Penddu2 said:

I have not heard any whispers from the poll, but based on some feedback from the streets:
Corbyn is strongly disliked - but Tories still toxic in much of Wales. Brexit Party not getting anywhere. Plaid doing well in places but not widely. LDs disappearing without a trace.

Expect Welsh polls to show repeat of 2017.... but on the other hand Scully did say Blimey again....

Tory toxicity in swathes of Wales at least is a given - but does Boris as Mr. Brexit overcome that to some extent?

Streeter

MarqueeMark said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Kier Royale, Rebecca Long-Drop, Laura Pillock.... They can all have a go and Boris will see them all off.

Search in vain for Hard-Hat Man standing by a hand-crafted banner saying they ❤ any of them......

Rebecca Long-Barrier!

Rebecca Long-Train-Running

Calling your political opponents stupid names. How childishly Trumpian of you. Well done.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

I will vote for any party (including Corbyn) that passes a law banning poll ramping.

Just wait until you see the shock results of today’s poll of opinion on poll ramping...

GIN1138

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.

All the excitement is being saved for election night...

Alphabet_Soup

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

RobD

GIN1138 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.

All the excitement is being saved for election night...

BONG..... "and we are predicting that Labour are the largest party".

brokenwheel

Philip_Thompson said:

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Doesn't he post something like that every time?

Pretty much.

But reading waaaaay too much between the lines, this combo is interesting;

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198908525415731200

Then after having seen it,

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198936594457255937

GIN1138

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.

All the excitement is being saved for election night...

BONG..... "and we are predicting that Labour are the largest party".

That would be a bong

Jason

Alphabet_Soup said:

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

I for one would welcome him back. His comedic value was utterly priceless.

Philip_Thompson

brokenwheel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Doesn't he post something like that every time?

Pretty much.

But reading waaaaay too much between the lines, this combo is interesting;

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198908525415731200

Then after having seen it,

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198936594457255937

Don't forget BXP were on 15% at the last Welsh poll IIRC and they're likely to only be on 4-5% now so that is 10% needs to go somewhere.

llef

more teasing from Roger.... (Awan Scully)

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198976772718694400

The next Welsh Political Barometer poll, by @YouGov for @ITVWales and @cardiffuni , will be published by @ITVWales and on my blog (http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/ …) at 5pm today.

This is one that will certainly be worth the wait...

IanB2

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.

It’s funny, but you are right. John Harris has an article along these lines in today’s Guardian. I’ve been an election addict ever since my schooldays, and even after retiring from long service as a councillor still got fired up enough by a GE to follow it very closely. In 2017 I’d be sure to catch BBCDP every day, and followed every twist and turn. This time, I’m interested, but it’s the first election where I have been happy to let many election programmes go by. Like many, I suspect, I don’t see any election outcome that is going to rescue our country from the slow spiral of relative decline that we have embarked upon. And the dishonesty, cynicism and puerility of most politicians is switching me off as never before.

Endillion

madmacs said:

Endillion said:

Lovely stuff.

Worth noting that there are a whole bunch of interesting interplays between this market, and the wider GE (as well as the "Corbyn to leave office by..." market). For example, I reckon Pidcock becomes more likely, the longer the Corbyn era goes on. If Labour go down to a heavy defeat in two weeks then a) she might lose her seat, b) there is less appetite for a continuity candidate and c) potentially fewer left-wing MPs to put her on the ballot.

I don't really get this idea that it'll likely be a woman because the party establishment wants one. Surely the Labour party is now set up, for better or worse, as heavily member-led and outright rejects attempts to impose top-down requirements such as this? If the members want, say, Barry Gardiner, they'll pick Barry Gardiner.

Not sure about c. A lot of Labour "moderates" are standing down or may lose. Relacements for the moderates or defectors are from my reading of Labour List, suported by Momentum. I would suggest that after the GE the parliamentary party will be more Corbynite even if not led by Corbyn.

My understanding was that Momentum had not done as well as expected in getting their candidates selected, and a decent chunk in winnable seats were perceived moderates. Of course, "winnable" is a moving target...

Either way, unless there was a rule change I missed, the left bloc need to make some gains just to get one name on the ballot.

geoffw

Would be a double whammy if Awan-Scully confirms Nigel Marriott's tweet.

rottenborough

Alphabet_Soup said:

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

Funnily enough, I am on Ed at 250/1

camel

Alphabet_Soup said:

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

This is the same EdM who, with Cooper, Eagle and Balls to choose from, judged that Alan 'the abacus' Johnson would be the best choice for Shadow Chancellor?

I think Corbyn and McDonnell have caused an outbreak of rose-tinted nostalgia if not amnesia regarding EdM.

MikeL

Isn't fieldwork for Welsh poll usually not very up to date - so unlikely to be more recent than latest national polls.

So in a way whatever it says doesn't really give new info re national picture.

However, maybe like Scotland, if Con doing very well it's important as quite a few key marginals.

algarkirk

Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.

The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.

If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.

If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.

I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.

SunnyJim

Streeter said:

Calling your political opponents stupid names. How childishly Trumpian of you. Well done.

Yeah, what a Bozo.

StevenWhaley

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Christ, this election is boring. We need some kind of rogue poll, spectacular gaffe, black swan style event to liven things up.

I think the exact opposite! This election is the most interesting one that I can remember... but it's also the first GE in which I've been a campaigner rather than an observer so that might have something to do with it. Putting leaflets through doors excites me much more than reading opinion polls or watching leader debates/interviews do.

El_Capitano

Alphabet_Soup said:

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

Possibly. Lune Aqueduct (on the Lancaster Canal) and Wigwell Aqueduct (on the Cromford) are probably longer. Edstone's lovely though.

Wulfrun_Phil

Long Bailey is still very good value.

Techniques of Kremlinology tell us that. She has been stuck on like a limpet to Corbyn's side and is given the honour of introducing the Great Leader at every key event.

She is clearly the one favoured to succeed within the inner circle and will therefore be the one pushed by Momentum.

Philip_Thompson

algarkirk said:

Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.

The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.

If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.

If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.

I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.

You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.

Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.

geoffw

Never used it, but "Uber loses licence in London" doesn't seem good.

viewcode

Casino_Royale said:

I think I’m going to be Group-Captain Shitmypants for the next 17 days.

How much good news do you want before you unclench?

Pause.

I really need to rephrase that...

Alphabet_Soup

El_Capitano said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

Possibly. Lune Aqueduct (on the Lancaster Canal) and Wigwell Aqueduct (on the Cromford) are probably longer. Edstone's lovely though.

Sorry - I forgot to include "cast iron"! The Lune is scary - great views but much more exposed.

Endillion

Alphabet_Soup said:

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

There was the Ed stone too, but yes he would be the best of a poor bunch in my opinion.

Good at sorting out the anti-semitism issue too.

It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.

I'm pretty sure that if he did come back, it would take me about a month to decide he was essentially a Marxist again. It would be an interesting experiment in perceptions, I guess.

Casino_Royale

brokenwheel said:

Philip_Thompson said:

llef said:

the welsh opinion poll to be released today is supposed to be "interesting"

"It’s just one poll... but blimey. #welshpoliticalbarometer"

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198942191105822720

Doesn't he post something like that every time?

Pretty much.

But reading waaaaay too much between the lines, this combo is interesting;

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198908525415731200

Then after having seen it,

https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198936594457255937

Nob.

TheWhiteRabbit

My gut instinct will be someone very different who is equally committed to Corbyn's key principles (possibly excepting Brexit). In order to be very different, therefore, I think they would have to be younger, a woman and/or non-white.

Fenster

We had an unscientific poll on our Ystrad Mynach Facebook group (6000 strong) a week ago, and around 300 people voted as follows:

Labour - 148 votes
Tory - 53 votes
Brexit - 35 votes
Undecided - 32 votes
Plaid - 16 votes

Ystrad Mynach is in the Caerphilly constituency so an unassailable Labour seat but I would guess a lot of the FB groupers would've been reluctant to go against Labour in a non-secret ballot. Some of the Labourites are quite narky, like to call people class traitors etc.

squareroot2

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Labour could do worse then get Ed Miliband back. Brexit, and all the horror it has reaped and has yet to reap, has rather recast him in the role of greatest prime minister Britain never had. It was only a bacon sandwich that thwarted him last time. Next time he only has to watch what he eats and make mincemeat of Boris in the process.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

The rightwing smear against Ed Miliband angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration

The bacon buttie pic was just epic.... there is even a Wikipedia page about it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Miliband_bacon_sandwich_photograph

that said Ed M is a hell of a lot better than any of the others that might succeed Corbyn.