I just found out from my brother that him and his wife are now seriously looking at property abroad and working out the economics of emigrating. They are more religious than me so get exposed to more anti-Semitism, but it is seriously depressing. Say they don't feel truly safe long term in the UK.
Unfortunately I think there will be quite a lot of Jewish considering their options if Labour did somehow get in as rightly or wrongly they don't think they'll be safe here anymore.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Yes, but how much are you prepared to pay for it?
I’m expecting the wealth tax on Sean to pay for it, silly.
Too bad, he'll have squirreled the dosh away and the bill will come back to you.
Tbh, I'm ok with this ICM. In a week where Labour got a lot of coverage they only closed to within 7 points. With a huge, huge giveaway manifesto. It also shows just how important this election is and hopefully breaks any last remnant of complacency out of the party.
This doesn't feel like 2017. It feels like 2015.
It feels like 1983 and don't get like football commentators. Labour is not "within" 7 points of the Tories, it is 7 points behind. "Within" means less or fewer i.e. 6 or less.
With a bit of leave alliance tv should expect less?
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
How good were nationalised industries at customer service and responding to technological change in the market last time round?
And how regular were strikes when the unionised workforces of those industries didn’t get what they wanted in that year’s round of pay and benefits negotiations?
There's no need for the Tories to panic on the basis of a poll with MOE changes. However, so far CCHQ have done far too little to scrutinise some of Labour's proposals which are easy targets. CCHQ should up its game pronto.
That is a very good point. The same happened in 2017, because nobody took Labour's manifesto seriously. I've not really heard any proper scrutiny and criticism of Labour's manifeso from the Tories, nor indeed from the media. Now, if the polls do start tightening, I would expect that to change consdierably. Let's be honest here, as a blueprint for the economy, Labour's manifesto is catastrophic, and I think even Labour voters would privately have some sympathy with that viewpoint.
But still. As over reactions go on the back of a single nationwide poll, it's really revealing. If the Tories start panicking nationally, then they will do Labour's job for them. A loss of confidence is fatal - just ask Theresa may.
**HOLD YOUR FUCKING NERVE, TORIES**
Mind you some bits of the Tory attack just doesn’t work like previous, you realise how embarrassingly ludicrous “strong and stable with Boris, chaos and bankruptcy with labour” sounds from a party whose flagship policy is brexit that was only got over the line by that whopping lie on the side of their leave campaign bus?
You could accept the 2015 attack strategy from Osborne, but this crew have a trust issue hampering the attack?
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
I agree Labours worst policy by miles IMO
One of the most poplar on the doorstep is Lab ruling out increase in Pension age beyond 66 Especially when you show voters IDS think tank want it raised to 75
No bribes for keep Corbyn outers its a disgrace
Don’t we need higher pension age for good reason though? Is there such thing as good policy that throws reasoning to the wind?
"Good Reason"
Protecting rich Tory donors from paying tax is not in most peoples good reason column TBF
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Yes, but how much are you prepared to pay for it?
I’m expecting the wealth tax on Sean to pay for it, silly.
Too bad, he'll have squirreled the dosh away and the bill will come back to you.
If so, he has some fast learning about the world of investment to do.
Probably the money but the question is how many people actually believe Labour will give them the money on top of all their other spending commitments...
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Simple put a X in the right box and you will receive free superfast Broadband
Amusing Tory launch venue yesterday had no Broadband.
Tories repeating all same basic errors as 2017.
Number one error terrible Manifesto no policies people support
Instead of paying the fee to the broadband provider you pay double the fee in tax hikes...wonderful.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Yes, but how much are you prepared to pay for it?
I’m expecting the wealth tax on Sean to pay for it, silly.
Too bad, he'll have squirreled the dosh away and the bill will come back to you.
If so, he has some fast learning about the world of investment to do.
Probably the money but the question is how many people actually believe Labour will give them the money on top of all their other spending commitments...
Don’t they have to win at the Supreme Court though? The high court judgement didn’t sound promising for the WASPIs.
Warning: Don't die owning shares directly in a US company.
If you do it is nigh on impossible for the executors to sell and recover the money.
I spent 3 years trying - eventually the deceased got classed as a missing shareholder, the State of Delaware took over the shares and I got the money from the State of Delaware.
It's an unbelievable process requiring a medallion stamp - and it is just about impossible to get one.
Does this apply to shares held via a platform e.g. H&L?
Sorry, don't know.
I think it would probably depend whose name is on the share register.
Probably the money but the question is how many people actually believe Labour will give them the money on top of all their other spending commitments...
This is one pledge they’d have to honour , the extent of the nationalization stuff not happening won’t be such a problem .
I don;t see the tories getting a manifesto boost, the manifesto was a bit ho hum To be honest.
I don't think anyone is expecting one. More that Labour's manifesto and debates bounce should start to deflate next week... But Con are in for a big wobble this week for sure.
Mega Polling Saturday is likely to be pretty hair-raising. Large whiskys all round for #PBTories on Saturday evening.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
Boris's ideas seem to be based round undoing his predecessors' cuts. For instance, that figure of 20,000 coppers has a familiar ring to it.
It's sensible enough. The public finances are now recovered to a reasonable extent, so there is some scope to spend more without going mad. After all, compared with Labour there's £58bn available just on one utterly bonkers pledge from Saturday.
Insofar as I can see, Labour's additional spending totals for the next five-year Parliament amount to £415bn in general public spending increases, £650bn to finance the national investment fund and national investment bank, an additional £58bn to throw at the old bats, and an indeterminate number on top of that for the renationalisations. In crude terms, that works out at £225bn per year not counting the costs of renationalising almost all the major service providers sold off since 1979.
If they get the chance to try it they'll bankrupt the country. The only satisfaction of having to live through that apocalypse will be watching everybody who voted for it getting everything that's coming to them.
Warning: Don't die owning shares directly in a US company.
If you do it is nigh on impossible for the executors to sell and recover the money.
I spent 3 years trying - eventually the deceased got classed as a missing shareholder, the State of Delaware took over the shares and I got the money from the State of Delaware.
It's an unbelievable process requiring a medallion stamp - and it is just about impossible to get one.
Does this apply to shares held via a platform e.g. H&L?
Sorry, don't know.
I think it would probably depend whose name is on the share register.
HL is the registered owner. The question is how much trouble HL would go to to recover funds for a dead client.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
I know how to do that. But would foreign shares owned by a UK citizen be safe from, say, a Corbynite wealth tax?
I had been planning on dealing with this problem in the event of a hard left Labour looking likely to win the election after this one.
My pension would have been QROP's and we would have bought a place in Portugal.
The house would have been sold and the proceeds moved overseas with a small place kept here.
And I would have retired early.
However,
In the event of Labour actually forming a government this time then there isn't that much you can do other than protect yourself from currency effects either by unhedged foreign equity/bond exposure which benefit from a weakening pound.
Any domestic bounce; FTSE100 from foreign currency earnings benefiting from a weak £, or FTSE250 from the cancelling of Brexit will in all likelihood be more than cancelled out by share grabs and general fearfulness in the markets.
Holding cash isn't a great idea in a fiscally incontinent environment.
Gold would probably do well but who wants that as anything more than 5-10% of a portfolio.
Property would in the main be insulated from currency and inflation but brings it's own issues having a huge treasury target on its back.
In short, if you have built anything, saved and been prudent then you are there to be rinsed while you remain in the UK. Not that Labour would let you leave without rinsing you first.
Economically and financially the UK would be knocked back in to the stone age by Corbyn.
Last three ICM polls have had Tory leads of 7, 8, 10. They've regularly been bottom of the heap.
One observation. At start of campaign it looked like Lab and Libdem would neatly share anti Tory share hence Tory landslide a la 1980’s. This very much could happen, awfully good value betting op because there is still no way that double digit Lib Dem figure will lend Labour the tactical where they need it, in fact the libdem share will leap as labour give them the tactical where they need it, so labour libdem close on numbers is still the bet to make.
And the big question. What are Opiniyum and ICM doing differently from each other?
The range of recent Tory leads - 7 points to 19 points - is obviously well beyond anything that can be explained by sampling error.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
That is my fear as well. It could turn out to be the most effective but also deeply immoral and irresponsible policy pledge in modern UK history. Attacking it is tricky as a significant part of the electorate (and political class) are innumerate. I would suggest the following: 1. Give some commitment to help the poorest worst affected once all the legal process is complete. 2. Compare the sums with other potential expenditure so the scale is made as clear as possible. 3. Unfair to majority of taxpayers and saddling young with debt. 4. Unfair to men. 5. LDs need to really weigh in on this!
The trouble is that the size of bribe is huge, Chavez has nothing on these bastards.
Unfortunately any tightening of the polls means my preferred Lib Dem vote may be a luxury I don't have.
Don’t be silly this place is full of false ‘worried’ Torys wanting a 100 majority so they tell you corbyn is going to win. Corbyn will be 180 max so no worries you can vote as you want.
Probably the money but the question is how many people actually believe Labour will give them the money on top of all their other spending commitments...
This is one pledge they’d have to honour , the extent of the nationalization stuff not happening won’t be such a problem .
A £50bn spending pledge that didn't even get put into the Labour manifesto... Labour must think the Waspi women came down in the last shower...
I've just backed 300-309 Tory seats at 25 and 310-319 Tory Seats at 12.5, both on the Betfair Exchange.
It’s possible Boris might get back to David Cameron’s 2015 result all over again, a wafer thin majority of 10, which would be a sort of poetic justice.
It would teach a lesson to all politicians that you can never game the electorate.
I assume this is accurate but understood letter from ex Esher MP Ian Taylor to the constituency voters telling voters to put their X for the Lib Dem!
I don't think there has been a letter (at least not received by me yet).The voters of Esher and Walton are not going to vote LD if faced with a Corbyn Government.Taylor always was a berk.
Stop fucking ramping labour no chance he is going to crash and burn.
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
Now, you see, everyone told me I was talking nonsense but I was right. The march of the robots has started in earnest. All Corbyn had to do is repeat "NHS" often enough and the homing beacons started to activate. He's going to be Prime Minister by Christmas. Watch.
I fear you’re right.
Fuck this, I’m going down to the pool to have a beer
Weak weak watery response. I wish Seant would come back and properly abuse me for my post 🙁.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
Boris's ideas seem to be based round undoing his predecessors' cuts. For instance, that figure of 20,000 coppers has a familiar ring to it.
It's sensible enough. The public finances are now recovered to a reasonable extent, so there is some scope to spend more without going mad. After all, compared with Labour there's £58bn available just on one utterly bonkers pledge from Saturday.
Insofar as I can see, Labour's additional spending totals for the next five-year Parliament amount to £415bn in general public spending increases, £650bn to finance the national investment fund and national investment bank, an additional £58bn to throw at the old bats, and an indeterminate number on top of that for the renationalisations. In crude terms, that works out at £225bn per year not counting the costs of renationalising almost all the major service providers sold off since 1979.
If they get the chance to try it they'll bankrupt the country. The only satisfaction of having to live through that apocalypse will be watching everybody who voted for it getting everything that's coming to them.
It’s almost Khmer Rouge like. They literally blew up the bank and destroyed money. And yes Cambodia suffered horribly but the Khmer Rouge thought Cambodia was an awful place full of kulaks anyway, so if they suffered that was OK
Corbyn and Milne and McDonnell hate Britain. It will please them if their mad plans eviscerate the nation.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
Simple put a X in the right box and you will receive free superfast Broadband
Amusing Tory launch venue yesterday had no Broadband.
Tories repeating all same basic errors as 2017.
Number one error terrible Manifesto no policies people support
Instead of paying the fee to the broadband provider you pay double the fee in tax hikes...wonderful.
Probably the money but the question is how many people actually believe Labour will give them the money on top of all their other spending commitments...
This is one pledge they’d have to honour , the extent of the nationalization stuff not happening won’t be such a problem .
As far as the waspi promise is concerned if the Supreme Court confirms the ruling against the waspi women than any payment for perceived harm would be illegal and would have an immediate judicial review
The whole issue depends on the Supreme Court, no matter which government is in power
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
Boris's ideas seem to be based round undoing his predecessors' cuts. For instance, that figure of 20,000 coppers has a familiar ring to it.
It's sensible enough. The public finances are now recovered to a reasonable extent, so there is some scope to spend more without going mad. After all, compared with Labour there's £58bn available just on one utterly bonkers pledge from Saturday.
Insofar as I can see, Labour's additional spending totals for the next five-year Parliament amount to £415bn in general public spending increases, £650bn to finance the national investment fund and national investment bank, an additional £58bn to throw at the old bats, and an indeterminate number on top of that for the renationalisations. In crude terms, that works out at £225bn per year not counting the costs of renationalising almost all the major service providers sold off since 1979.
If they get the chance to try it they'll bankrupt the country. The only satisfaction of having to live through that apocalypse will be watching everybody who voted for it getting everything that's coming to them.
It’s almost Khmer Rouge like. They literally blew up the bank and destroyed money. And yes Cambodia suffered horribly but the Khmer Rouge thought Cambodia was an awful place full of kulaks anyway, so if they suffered that was OK
Corbyn and Milne and McDonnell hate Britain. It will please them if their mad plans eviscerate the nation.
Brexit is the original mad plan. Just as well you never voted for it, eh?
The UUP might take a seat or two. They probably won't though.
"Mildly interesting"? The UUP's stance means that the only parties likely to be prepared to have anything to do with the Tories if Johnson gets more seats than Labour are Brexit (who may well get no seats at all) - and the LibDems. You'll recall that the Ms Foster confirmed yesterday that Johnson had burned his boats with the DUP (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/arlene-foster-and-dup-on-jeremy-corbyn-and-election-1-6391635)
Johnson's party may win a real majority, and the LDs may not get enough seats to swing things. But with the sexpest's support vote beginning to crumble, it's certainly possible the current UKIP Lite shower will merely get a plurality.
So both Johnson and Corbyn may end up walking the plank before NYE.
The question that may arise on a hung parliament will Boris agree a referendum to keep his job
Not a worry. Boris is home and dry already, and with a big, big majority. It is particularly helpful to him that the BBC are doctoring footage to help him over the line. First the 3 year old footage of Boris at the Cenotaph to cover up his faux pas and now editing out the QT audience laughing at Boris.
Interesting ITV poll in Wales with Labour down a whopping 11 percentage points on 2017.
If that was the choice, but it’s not labour are struggling and the best thing any sane labour voter is to vote to ensure corbyn is removed and the left put in cold storage for another 40 years.
I do have a horrible feeling that Labour have hit the jackpot with the Waspi pledge. I did as soon as I heard it and the size of the sums payable to individuals. I offered some ideas on countering it below but I'm not sure they will work. Some husbands and partners may be swayed as well so this policy could add above a million votes. Tricky.
The question that may arise on a hung parliament will Boris agree a referendum to keep his job
He’d agree anything to keep his job.
We’ve already seen that with the extension to Jan 2020 and the customs border down the Irish Sea.
Next?
To be fair to Big G, big g is right. Boris already said the same to Farage in their negotiation, because next day Farage said he’s standing down to avoid another referendum.
Well hung = Boris deal v remain ref in March or later.
Tbh, I'm ok with this ICM. In a week where Labour got a lot of coverage they only closed to within 7 points. With a huge, huge giveaway manifesto. It also shows just how important this election is and hopefully breaks any last remnant of complacency out of the party.
This doesn't feel like 2017. It feels like 2015.
It feels like 1983 and don't get like football commentators. Labour is not "within" 7 points of the Tories, it is 7 points behind. "Within" means less or fewer i.e. 6 or less.
Labour were as high as 36% and 37% during the 1983 campaign as you can see here:
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
Thanks for instilling some sanity into the situation. The ICM poll gave the Tories 41%. Just how much higher do its supporters expect it to go ... 42%, 43% even but almost certainly no higher than that. The real problem is the extent to which Labour has won support from the other parties, notably from the LibDems as Steven Whaley correctly points out.
HL is the registered owner. The question is how much trouble HL would go to to recover funds for a dead client.
I don't know for certain, but I think it would be very straightforward: as soon as you had probate, they would simply sell the foreign shares and return the money to the executors. I've been an executor where shares with HL were part of the estate and it wasn't a problem at all. I don't think the fact that the shares were non-UK would make any difference to this.
Still, I would check with them before investing significant sums in non-UK quoted assets.
The nurses pledge is really blowing up in Bozos face .
If you’re going to attack Corbyn on his pledges then at least have your flagship one which stands up to scrutiny .
Otherwise you blunt your own attacks . The public think its 50,000 new nurses , to then be told 18,000 of those aren’t new but existing staff staying on complete demolishes your argument .
I've just backed 300-309 Tory seats at 25 and 310-319 Tory Seats at 12.5, both on the Betfair Exchange.
It’s possible Boris might get back to David Cameron’s 2015 result all over again, a wafer thin majority of 10, which would be a sort of poetic justice.
It would teach a lesson to all politicians that you can never game the electorate.
I'm still hoping he scores a majority of 1 less than Cameron. Itd drive him mad.
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
Now, you see, everyone told me I was talking nonsense but I was right. The march of the robots has started in earnest. All Corbyn had to do is repeat "NHS" often enough and the homing beacons started to activate. He's going to be Prime Minister by Christmas. Watch.
Do you not think you’re over reacting a bit. Labour have a mountain to climb.
Nope. Labour are 7% behind in the ICM. They get to within 5% on polling day and the likelihood of a Hung Parliament climbs substantially. If there's a Hung Parliament then Corbyn become Prime Minister: the Tories have no allies left to prop them up.
If this turns into a consistent trend (which it will) then, given that Labour have over a fortnight to close that remaining small gap, then the chances of a Hung Parliament are in excess of 50%.
I said when this all started that there would probably be a wafer-thin Conservative majority or a Hung Parliament and that's where we are heading at speed. And if it's a Hung Parliament then it's almost as good for Labour as an outright win. The SNP and the Lib Dems would sell their grannies to the Pedigree Chum factory in exchange for their referendums: they'll let Corbyn do whatever else he wants if he agrees to them.
And then the last, desperate hope is that Scotland votes to go, though even that may not be enough to save us from bankruptcy. As I've also said, the only satisfaction to be had from living through that nightmare is at least it might finally teach some people a lesson.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
How good were nationalised industries at customer service and responding to technological change in the market last time round?
And how regular were strikes when the unionised workforces of those industries didn’t get what they wanted in that year’s round of pay and benefits negotiations?
6 months to get a BT line, rip off train tickets with passengers in carriages that belonged in a museum & trains that were never on time...I thought it was only Tories that did nostalgia..
If that was the choice, but it’s not labour are struggling and the best thing any sane labour voter is to vote to ensure corbyn is removed and the left put in cold storage for another 40 years.
But they won't. 50:50 chance of a Corbyn Government.
I do have a horrible feeling that Labour have hit the jackpot with the Waspi pledge. I did as soon as I heard it and the size of the sums payable to individuals. I offered some ideas on countering it below but I'm not sure they will work. Some husbands and partners may be swayed as well so this policy could add above a million votes. Tricky.
If it's that easy to bribe people, the Tories should just offer everyone who votes Conservative £1000, boosted to £5000 in marginal seats. What's the difference?
Did anyone see the Nicki Morgan car crash on GMB regarding the nurse pledge ! Luckily for the Tories I don’t think many people watch that although it has already got 1.4 million you tube views since this morning .
The UUP might take a seat or two. They probably won't though.
"Mildly interesting"? The UUP's stance means that the only parties likely to be prepared to have anything to do with the Tories if Johnson gets more seats than Labour are Brexit (who may well get no seats at all) - and the LibDems. You'll recall that the Ms Foster confirmed yesterday that Johnson had burned his boats with the DUP (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/arlene-foster-and-dup-on-jeremy-corbyn-and-election-1-6391635)
Johnson's party may win a real majority, and the LDs may not get enough seats to swing things. But with the sexpest's support vote beginning to crumble, it's certainly possible the current UKIP Lite shower will merely get a plurality.
So both Johnson and Corbyn may end up walking the plank before NYE.
I don't see where in that link Foster is saying Johnson had burned his boats. Not that the New European is a neutral source.
It doesn't take much to get Conservatives to panic does it? Luckily, for our own sanity, we Lib Dems are a hardier breed and, frankly, that ICM poll is worse for us than for the Conservatives yet we're not flapping and wailing.
I don’t care about the fucking Conservatives, or sodding Boris Johnson, or the effing Lib Dems, for that matter. I care about my country not being destroyed by sinister Marxist terrorist sympathisers.
Has anyone sat down and really considered the chaos that would ensue from a Corbyn government? Capital flight. A sterling collapse. Interest rates soaring. Recession beckoning. On top of that you’d then have ANOTHER Brexit referendum, producing MORE instability, and not resolving anything, just making it all worse. Add to that a Scottish indyref2, Ulster in turmoil...
May the Lord God help us.
Now, you see, everyone told me I was talking nonsense but I was right. The march of the robots has started in earnest. All Corbyn had to do is repeat "NHS" often enough and the homing beacons started to activate. He's going to be Prime Minister by Christmas. Watch.
As I've also said, the only satisfaction to be had from living through that nightmare is at least it might finally teach some people a lesson.
Recognise that you’re really taking about Brexit, and your predictions might very well all be spot on.
And then the last, desperate hope is that Scotland votes to go, though even that may not be enough to save us from bankruptcy. As I've also said, the only satisfaction to be had from living through that nightmare is at least it might finally teach some people a lesson.
There should still be enough voters kicking around from the 1970s who know how the story will end with this type of Labour.
If there aren't then the younger voters who put Corbyn in to No.10 will hopefully caution future generations once memories start fading.
Brexit is an irrelevance compared to the damage Labour would do.
HL is the registered owner. The question is how much trouble HL would go to to recover funds for a dead client.
I don't know for certain, but I think it would be very straightforward: as soon as you had probate, they would simply sell the foreign shares and return the money to the executors. I've been an executor where shares with HL were part of the estate and it wasn't a problem at all. I don't think the fact that the shares were non-UK would make any difference to this.
Still, I would check with them before investing significant sums in non-UK quoted assets.
I do have a horrible feeling that Labour have hit the jackpot with the Waspi pledge. I did as soon as I heard it and the size of the sums payable to individuals. I offered some ideas on countering it below but I'm not sure they will work. Some husbands and partners may be swayed as well so this policy could add above a million votes. Tricky.
The crucial thing is as follows: will most voters see it as a horrific spending spurge of epic proportions or merely the righting of a wrong, akin to the whole mis-sold pension stuff they see regular adverts about? If the latter then it could be Jezza's reverse dementia-tax moment.
I just found out from my brother that him and his wife are now seriously looking at property abroad and working out the economics of emigrating. They are more religious than me so get exposed to more anti-Semitism, but it is seriously depressing. Say they don't feel truly safe long term in the UK.
Will they cancel those plans if the next YouGov looks good for Boris?
It's ironic that the commentariat wanted there to be a big problem with the Joker film but there wasn't, and now there's a controversy over the London gangster film Blue Story instead.
The nurses pledge is really blowing up in Bozos face .
If you’re going to attack Corbyn on his pledges then at least have your flagship one which stands up to scrutiny .
Otherwise you blunt your own attacks . The public think its 50,000 new nurses , to then be told 18,000 of those aren’t new but existing staff staying on complete demolishes your argument .
Hearing them explain, on R4 this morning, that a nurse who has thought about leaving but stayed on would ‘count’ towards their promised figure of “new nurses” was pretty pitiful.
The nurses pledge is really blowing up in Bozos face .
If you’re going to attack Corbyn on his pledges then at least have your flagship one which stands up to scrutiny .
Otherwise you blunt your own attacks . The public think its 50,000 new nurses , to then be told 18,000 of those aren’t new but existing staff staying on complete demolishes your argument .
Only if the public are innumerate morons. I don't think that little of the public.
Why are 18,000 more experienced nurses supposed to be inferior to 18,000 new inexperienced nurses?
Where do you get the free fibre broadband from if 1) it hasn’t been “built” yet 2) all the existing ISPs quit the market?
You don’t. You’d get slower roll-out of a worse service, and all the money would go into higher wages for the staff and increased subsidy from the Treasury (to keep the cost at zero).
That would create a very strong disincentive for new customers or investing in a better service.
In the event the Tories do get a majority, I suspect reviewing and amending the boundaries will come quite high up the priority list this time.
If the Tories do get a majority then the first item on the agenda should be giving the SNP their referendum next year, and the second should be a commission to formulate a replacement for the Barnett formula. Just to make sure the result goes the right way this time.
Scottish independence is worth more to the security of England than tinkering with the boundaries. That can wait until after the next census if they want to make sure it's being done right.
Tories look quite sticky in the 40s. Labour probably need to be in the 35-40% vote percentage band to make it a hung parliament. At 6.8 on Betfair this is a much better bet than laying the Tories for an overall majority IMO. Of course there is a small chance Lab go above 40 like last time but it’s hard to see them being below 30% so that just leaves the 30-35 and 35-40 bands as realistic (the latter offering much better value).
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
How good were nationalised industries at customer service and responding to technological change in the market last time round?
And how regular were strikes when the unionised workforces of those industries didn’t get what they wanted in that year’s round of pay and benefits negotiations?
6 months to get a BT line, rip off train tickets with passengers in carriages that belonged in a museum & trains that were never on time...I thought it was only Tories that did nostalgia..
And then the last, desperate hope is that Scotland votes to go, though even that may not be enough to save us from bankruptcy. As I've also said, the only satisfaction to be had from living through that nightmare is at least it might finally teach some people a lesson.
There should still be enough voters kicking around from the 1970s who know how the story will end with this type of Labour.
If there aren't then the younger voters who put Corbyn in to No.10 will hopefully caution future generations once memories start fading.
Brexit is an irrelevance compared to the damage Labour would do.
Corbyn is a thousand times worse than Harold Wilson. We never got to experience Michael Foot.
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
I see SeanT is having his usual mid election break down . There is no way the British public will vote commie corbyn into power . They didn’t even vote crappy Ed in , despite “The day the polls turned”
Relax Boris will get his majority
Whereabouts does SeanT post these days? I had rather hoped against hope that he might put in the odd occasional guest appearance on PB.com during this campaign ... always assuming he's not currently banned.
He vanished without a trace. No one's heard a word from him for many months.
This WASPI stuff is going to end up like those fuckin ambulance chasers isn't it.
Everyone claims they can't stand them but off there'll be a cohort of 50s women sneakily voting Corbyn in the privacy of the ballot box hoping to get their hands on 30 odd grand.
Personally I’d quite like some free broadband
How good were nationalised industries at customer service and responding to technological change in the market last time round?
And how regular were strikes when the unionised workforces of those industries didn’t get what they wanted in that year’s round of pay and benefits negotiations?
6 months to get a BT line, rip off train tickets with passengers in carriages that belonged in a museum & trains that were never on time...I thought it was only Tories that did nostalgia..
I’m looking forward to the Amazon and Netflix strikes when the new closed shop of union muscle in British Broadband will cut the servers so they can increase their pay and benefits package nationwide.
Comments
I've just backed 300-309 Tory seats at 25 and 310-319 Tory Seats at 12.5, both on the Betfair Exchange.
Fuck that.
And how regular were strikes when the unionised workforces of those industries didn’t get what they wanted in that year’s round of pay and benefits negotiations?
Protecting rich Tory donors from paying tax is not in most peoples good reason column TBF
I think it would probably depend whose name is on the share register.
Mega Polling Saturday is likely to be pretty hair-raising. Large whiskys all round for #PBTories on Saturday evening.
If they get the chance to try it they'll bankrupt the country. The only satisfaction of having to live through that apocalypse will be watching everybody who voted for it getting everything that's coming to them.
My pension would have been QROP's and we would have bought a place in Portugal.
The house would have been sold and the proceeds moved overseas with a small place kept here.
And I would have retired early.
However,
In the event of Labour actually forming a government this time then there isn't that much you can do other than protect yourself from currency effects either by unhedged foreign equity/bond exposure which benefit from a weakening pound.
Any domestic bounce; FTSE100 from foreign currency earnings benefiting from a weak £, or FTSE250 from the cancelling of Brexit will in all likelihood be more than cancelled out by share grabs and general fearfulness in the markets.
Holding cash isn't a great idea in a fiscally incontinent environment.
Gold would probably do well but who wants that as anything more than 5-10% of a portfolio.
Property would in the main be insulated from currency and inflation but brings it's own issues having a huge treasury target on its back.
In short, if you have built anything, saved and been prudent then you are there to be rinsed while you remain in the UK. Not that Labour would let you leave without rinsing you first.
Economically and financially the UK would be knocked back in to the stone age by Corbyn.
We’ve already seen that with the extension to Jan 2020 and the customs border down the Irish Sea.
Next?
It would teach a lesson to all politicians that you can never game the electorate.
"People dont expect something for nothing"
No empathy, no idea how that sounds when she was responsible for stealing the money in the first place.
The woman has no clues.
A better answer would be the WASPIs want to continue inequality between the sexes. They are not Women Against State Pension Inequality at all
7 points is the 3rd biggest lead ICM has given the Tories since GE2017. The others were 8 and 10.
Stop fucking ramping labour no chance he is going to crash and burn.
Corbyn and Milne and McDonnell hate Britain. It will please them if their mad plans eviscerate the nation.
The whole issue depends on the Supreme Court, no matter which government is in power
The UUP's stance means that the only parties likely to be prepared to have anything to do with the Tories if Johnson gets more seats than Labour are Brexit (who may well get no seats at all) - and the LibDems. You'll recall that the Ms Foster confirmed yesterday that Johnson had burned his boats with the DUP (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/arlene-foster-and-dup-on-jeremy-corbyn-and-election-1-6391635)
Now the LDs have hinted that they might offer the Tories some - probably intermittent and temporary - support if and only if they offer a referendum. And probably only if they fire Johnson (https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-21/lib-dem-deputy-ed-davey-expects-boris-johnson-to-lead-a-minority-government-writes-robert-peston/)
Johnson's party may win a real majority, and the LDs may not get enough seats to swing things. But with the sexpest's support vote beginning to crumble, it's certainly possible the current UKIP Lite shower will merely get a plurality.
So both Johnson and Corbyn may end up walking the plank before NYE.
Interesting ITV poll in Wales with Labour down a whopping 11 percentage points on 2017.
If that was the choice, but it’s not labour are struggling and the best thing any sane labour voter is to vote to ensure corbyn is removed and the left put in cold storage for another 40 years.
Well hung = Boris deal v remain ref in March or later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election#1983
Still, I would check with them before investing significant sums in non-UK quoted assets.
If you’re going to attack Corbyn on his pledges then at least have your flagship one which stands up to scrutiny .
Otherwise you blunt your own attacks . The public think its 50,000 new nurses , to then be told 18,000 of those aren’t new but existing staff staying on complete demolishes your argument .
If this turns into a consistent trend (which it will) then, given that Labour have over a fortnight to close that remaining small gap, then the chances of a Hung Parliament are in excess of 50%.
I said when this all started that there would probably be a wafer-thin Conservative majority or a Hung Parliament and that's where we are heading at speed. And if it's a Hung Parliament then it's almost as good for Labour as an outright win. The SNP and the Lib Dems would sell their grannies to the Pedigree Chum factory in exchange for their referendums: they'll let Corbyn do whatever else he wants if he agrees to them.
And then the last, desperate hope is that Scotland votes to go, though even that may not be enough to save us from bankruptcy. As I've also said, the only satisfaction to be had from living through that nightmare is at least it might finally teach some people a lesson.
Opposing that fate is worth a mountain of lesser policies.
The lead in that should be well in double figures.
Panic over
Have I mentioned the Beasts team is "quietly confident" of Lab Hold in Bolsover BTW
6 months to get a BT line, rip off train tickets with passengers in carriages that belonged in a museum & trains that were never on time...I thought it was only Tories that did nostalgia..
A short 3-4 week election campaign is much better the governing party.
If there aren't then the younger voters who put Corbyn in to No.10 will hopefully caution future generations once memories start fading.
Brexit is an irrelevance compared to the damage Labour would do.
Adding Survation and ICM gives
Con Lab LD BXP Green PC SNP Total
England 316 191 25 0 1 0 0 533
Wales 16 20 1 0 0 4 0 40
Scotland 8 1 5 0 0 0 45 59
TOTAL 340 212 31 0 1 4 45 632
Tory majority of 30.
Tories reduce by two in England (Rother Valley and Scunthorpe stay in Labour column) but increase by two in Scotland based on latest Scottish poll.
The impact of the latest Welsh poll is not yet available but I suspect it won't be positive for the Tories.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
I cannot see Ed Davey or the SNP going along with quite such a confiscatory McDonnell budget. There would be significant attenuation.
Get some policies
Yes, you might well be right.
It's ironic that the commentariat wanted there to be a big problem with the Joker film but there wasn't, and now there's a controversy over the London gangster film Blue Story instead.
Hearing them explain, on R4 this morning, that a nurse who has thought about leaving but stayed on would ‘count’ towards their promised figure of “new nurses” was pretty pitiful.
Why are 18,000 more experienced nurses supposed to be inferior to 18,000 new inexperienced nurses?
That would create a very strong disincentive for new customers or investing in a better service.
Scottish independence is worth more to the security of England than tinkering with the boundaries. That can wait until after the next census if they want to make sure it's being done right.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/northern-s-pacer-trains-are-even-late-to-scrapyard-6wlr03xzb
It will be a regular event.
Amazon and Netflix strikes. Popular.