I was wondering if OGH is going to downplay the Tory chances to push up his chances of winning the bet. He is in a privileged position
That is a post that could be very badly misinterpreted and probably not something you want to be saying. On a betting site it is a far more offensive suggestion than many of the more lurid swearing posts we sometimes indulge in on here.
We were just talking about confirmation bias though and by its very nature, and the article earlier, OGH believes turnout will be up. I’m certainly not looking to get a ban but I would find it difficult to not write about what I thought would happen and anything supporting that. To be fair the site has a broad range of writers, and OGH is clear about the bet made in the piece. Apologies for any offence caused.
Interesting that the 9-point Labour increase is being accompanied by a 10-point narrowing of the gap between Corbyn and Johnson to just 5 points in Wales. Mike has often suggested that leader ratings are a good leading indicator for poll performance.
The two polls bear out what I was seeing on the ground in Portsmouth - a definite change in mood since my last visit, with Labour waverers firming up and some LibDems coming over.
Agree. We need a leader to lead. To make decisions and show by example.
We definitely don't want a fence-sitter I'm with you on that one.
Except, of course, where the fence splits the country in two. In that case, the wise leader will clench his buttocks and hold station. It's what Mandela, for example, would have done.
“ Just three weeks ago, there was a fifteen-point gap between the two men on a ‘best Prime Minister’ question. Now, that gap has shrunk to just five points.”
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Agreed. As I said on here last night there should have been *something* shiny and new in the Tory manifesto. The total lack of any retail offer was a massive anti climax.
If polling is to be believed then low turnout and Labour closing the gap are pretty much entirely contradictory positions.
I was thinking the same thing - you can’t have undecided voters breaking for labour but not voting.
I said the same thing earlier - higher turnout should benefit Labour if the undecideds are Labour-inclined, not lower turnout.
I agree. I think we'll see high turnout in the marginals - of the 200-odd people I talked to, only ONE was planning not to vote, though have a dozen others were hazy enough to make me doubt whether they would.
Some ludicrous over reactions here to a single poll. Let's see the trend first over the next week. If it's 4 or 5% gap consistently over half a dozen polls, then yes, panic stations for the Tories.
“ Just three weeks ago, there was a fifteen-point gap between the two men on a ‘best Prime Minister’ question. Now, that gap has shrunk to just five points.”
#CalledIt
A 5% lead *in Wales* sounds pretty good for Johnson to me, That would be like a lead of 20 -25% nationally.
Jesus Christ. My country is about to commit suicide.
No we did that in 2016 when the country voted Leave.
In 2019 we’re merely choosing the method of suicide.
Not really. If that’s your logic, we unwittingly decide to commit suicide when we joined the EEC, Brexit made this decision irreversible, now we find out how we die.
“ Just three weeks ago, there was a fifteen-point gap between the two men on a ‘best Prime Minister’ question. Now, that gap has shrunk to just five points.”
#CalledIt
A 5% lead *in Wales* sounds pretty good for Johnson to me, That would be like a lead of 20 -25% nationally.
Look at the trend and it is a 6% deficit in Wales.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
You think the Con manifesto would have that much of an effect just a few hours later?
I think this is mainly down to the debates. And I suspect it'll start to fade out next week.
“ Just three weeks ago, there was a fifteen-point gap between the two men on a ‘best Prime Minister’ question. Now, that gap has shrunk to just five points.”
#CalledIt
A 5% lead *in Wales* sounds pretty good for Johnson to me, That would be like a lead of 20 -25% nationally.
Look at the trend and it is a 6% deficit in Wales.
Agree. We need a leader to lead. To make decisions and show by example.
We definitely don't want a fence-sitter I'm with you on that one.
Except, of course, where the fence splits the country in two. In that case, the wise leader will clench his buttocks and hold station. It's what Mandela, for example, would have done.
Referendum: "Do you want to continue with apartheid in South Africa?"
Yes I agree Mandela would have been non-committal.
And much of the fieldwork for both these polls seems to have been before the Conservative manifesto appeared, so beware of jumping to causes from uncertain effects.
“ Just three weeks ago, there was a fifteen-point gap between the two men on a ‘best Prime Minister’ question. Now, that gap has shrunk to just five points.”
#CalledIt
A 5% lead *in Wales* sounds pretty good for Johnson to me, That would be like a lead of 20 -25% nationally.
The Tories will be delighted with a much closer poll. They won't be delighted if all the pollsters show a much closer poll.
Bit worrying that Labour surging in Wales with yougov, wonder if that is mirrored in England too.
Don't forget that's comparing with 3 weeks ago.
In the past 3 weeks we have already seen a Labour rise in UK polls. Labour is consistently polling around 30% now instead of around 24% - so this line is rather in trend with that.
Suggests that the BXP had hoovered up a lot of Labour leavers in Wales, who have gone back to Labour in those Tory seats where Farage has stood down. Megalolz.
Alternatively it could be just noise, like the 19 point Tory lead with Opinium all of, ooh, three days ago...
ICMs last four polls had Tory leads of 6, 7, 8 and 10, so back to 7 may well be just noise.
The thing to worry the Tories is if ICM are the ones getting it right.
Yes, various pollsters have said that they are uncertain whether their weighting methods are right for this election, given the apparent change in party allegiances.
If Jezza is winning back the working classes with his manifesto then Boris desperately needs to hold on to those Remain seats the Lib Dems are aiming to wrench from his grasp. Perhaps a Remain/Boris-Deal referendum will put Swinson back in her box.
Ah, fuck it - a 7 point lead in the immediate wake of the largest bribe in British political history isn't actually that bad. It should help shock the complacency out off any Tory waverers thinking it's safe to head off to the LDs or BXP.
Suggests that the BXP had hoovered up a lot of Labour leavers in Wales, who have gone back to Labour in those Tory seats where Farage has stood down. Megalolz.
That wouldn't be terrible for the Tories, if that's whats happened as those are err Tory seats.
Just when I was complaining about things getting boring... My view is that the Tories must be close to their ceiling, whereas Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems and Greens a bit more and they have some 2017 supporters sitting on the sidelines who can still come back if they don't just sit it out. I still think the Tories will win a small majority but something like Con 41 and Lab 36 with a hung parliament looks entirely plausible. The Tory non-manifesto was driven I assume by a desire not to distract from Get Brexit Done but has made them look out of ideas, never a good look. Anyway, nice for things to get interesting. PB Tories, wear your brown pants.
Ah, fuck it - a 7 point lead in the immediate wake of the largest bribe in British political history isn't actually that bad. It should help shock the complacency out off any Tory waverers thinking it's safe to head off to the LDs or BXP.
Yep we dont need policies of our own Corbyn being a Cunt will win it!!!
I think we've reached the point in the election camapaign where normally sensible people start losing their sense of reason. Crikey, this is ONE poll. You're doing Labour's work for them.
On topic. If the top candidates in terms of doing the job well and trusted by large swathes of the electorate emerge to be male, and the leading ladies reveal themselves no where ready yet or even in same league at this moment, what sort of blinkered, twisted and juvenile establishment would insist it has to be a female leader.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
True but Lewis Goodall's wider point is not because he's choosing to focus only on one side of the argument rather than the bigger picture. The other side of the argument is that those who do already say they will vote Labour are less firmed up than Conservative voters, so there is also more potential for Labour to lose some of their support.
In any balanced view, you would come to the conclusion that the larger proportion of Labour undecideds is probably cancelled out by the lower proportion of nailed on Labour decideds.
That's true, but keep in mind that pollsters generally adjust for turnout certainty. The big leads we've been seeing have been partly driven by lower Labour certainty to vote. If that's changing, that alone will affect the poll.
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
I said yesterday the Lib Dems were in trouble.They are going to get massively squeezed now as voters realise they have got to make a choice as to whether they want a Marxist as PM or not.
Just when I was complaining about things getting boring... My view is that the Tories must be close to their ceiling, whereas Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems and Greens a bit more and they have some 2017 supporters sitting on the sidelines who can still come back if they don't just sit it out. I still think the Tories will win a small majority but something like Con 41 and Lab 36 with a hung parliament looks entirely plausible. The Tory non-manifesto was driven I assume by a desire not to distract from Get Brexit Done but has made them look out of ideas, never a good look. Anyway, nice for things to get interesting. PB Tories, wear your brown pants.
Get Brexit done, for what? is the obvious question.
Alternatively it could be just noise, like the 19 point Tory lead with Opinium all of, ooh, three days ago...
ICMs last four polls had Tory leads of 6, 7, 8 and 10, so back to 7 may well be just noise.
The thing to worry the Tories is if ICM are the ones getting it right.
Good point. What distinguishes ICM in terms of methodology?
No idea - but of the main polling companies - they were the one that most overestimated the Tory lead in 2017. Whether they've gone too far the other way, or guessed right about what they did wrong, remains to be seen.
Serious question. How does one shift money out of the country? How does one wall it off, safely away from Corbyn’s evil grasp?
On a related note I couldn't help but laugh at the utility companies 'moving' themselves offshore to protect against nationalisation.
How do they reckon that works again? Can't exactly chuck a Nuclear Power station into a wheelbarrow and take it to France.
No but you can sue the UK government in foreign courts for compensation.
The fact that international companies would even remotely contemplate moving legal ownership of assets out of the UK, let alone actually doing it, is truly terrifying - we used to be one of the countries regarded as safest for legal protections.
Ah, fuck it - a 7 point lead in the immediate wake of the largest bribe in British political history isn't actually that bad. It should help shock the complacency out off any Tory waverers thinking it's safe to head off to the LDs or BXP.
Yep we dont need policies of our own Corbyn being a Cunt will win it!!!
If Jezza is winning back the working classes with his manifesto then Boris desperately needs to hold on to those Remain seats the Lib Dems are aiming to wrench from his grasp. Perhaps a Remain/Boris-Deal referendum will put Swinson back in her box.
RELAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAX
I have given myself time to assess it, and I think the Tory Manifesto is extremely smart manifesto and politics for a party 10 years in government. It’s called thin on detail and substance, but it pulls all leavers of leavers coalition, bobbies on beat, doctor appointments, 350M more a week for NHS, immigration.
The Tories are three nil up in polls very much into second half, last thing they need is to pick fights, give anything away to opposition, just cruise in to comfortable win now.
If anyone wants to say it’s dirty and dishonest to try and get five years around just one issue without detail on everything else you will be doing I would answer: “stop your babbling, twerp. this is politics and good politics to get away with that, others have in the past, you should too if you had the chance, unless you clearly too weak and principled for realpolitik.”
I reckon the Tories winning 4 seats in Wales from Labour and retaking Brecon and Radnor from the Liberals on the strength of that Welsh poll would suit Boris fine.
Meanwhile on the spreads, Sporting have suspended their GE Seats market ... quelle surprise, whilst Spreadex have Tory seats up 4.5 on the day at a new campaign high mid-spread of 351 seats, with Labour languishing at a mid-price of 203, down 3.5 seats on the day!
No good comes from these TV debates for the government IMO (at the moment its the Tories that suffer as they are the governing party but if/when Labour is ever in government they'll suffer similarly during election debates)
I think most of it is froth and churn though - that certainly seemed to be the case in 2010 and 2015. I suspect we'll see this post debate swing to Labour stalling and fading out next week but this week Con are going to have a big wobble.
Referendum: "Do you want to continue with apartheid in South Africa?"
Yes I agree Mandela would have been non-committal.
Er, not sure that "Do you want to Remain in the EU in all but name or do you want to Remain in the EU?" is quite the same sort of question!
Leaders lead. They give guidance on important matters and especially on the most important issue facing the country they hope to become the, er, leader of.
That Welsh poll is a bit of a shock because the Brexit Party were quite strong there . The ICM will have nerves jangling at Tory HQ but it’s just one poll.
But anything under ten points given the Opinium horror show will be very welcome by Labour . I think the Waspi announcement will help Labour , I expect even some Leavers who were effected might be moved by that .
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
Serious question. How does one shift money out of the country? How does one wall it off, safely away from Corbyn’s evil grasp?
On a related note I couldn't help but laugh at the utility companies 'moving' themselves offshore to protect against nationalisation.
How do they reckon that works again? Can't exactly chuck a Nuclear Power station into a wheelbarrow and take it to France.
No but you can sue the UK government in foreign courts for compensation.
The fact that international companies would even remotely contemplate moving legal ownership of assets out of the UK, let alone actually doing it, is truly terrifying - we used to be one of the countries regarded as safest for legal protections.
Yes, it was amazingly unremarked at the time. A horrifying straw in the wind, and no one blinked.
Serious question. How does one shift money out of the country? How does one wall it off, safely away from Corbyn’s evil grasp?
On a related note I couldn't help but laugh at the utility companies 'moving' themselves offshore to protect against nationalisation.
How do they reckon that works again? Can't exactly chuck a Nuclear Power station into a wheelbarrow and take it to France.
No but you can sue the UK government in foreign courts for compensation.
The fact that international companies would even remotely contemplate moving legal ownership of assets out of the UK, let alone actually doing it, is truly terrifying - we used to be one of the countries regarded as safest for legal protections.
They were certainly quick off the mark, almost as if these were their Brexit plans, suitably relabelled.
Although I advocated it at the time, Boris's minimalist manifesto looks to have been a catastrophic blunder. It's made the Tories look like they only have to turn up and that Jezza is the only one who cares. What a debacle.
Could be, yes. Might be a bad look for the Cons that Labour have all the ideas.
They seem to have only one idea: throw zillions of pounds of non-existent money at all real and imagined problems.
Comments
The two polls bear out what I was seeing on the ground in Portsmouth - a definite change in mood since my last visit, with Labour waverers firming up and some LibDems coming over.
In 2019 we’re merely choosing the method of suicide.
The Tories over reacted to T May’s mistake.
But we always knew this would be a wobbly week
We need to see where we are at the weekend
Has Boris blown it?
I think this is mainly down to the debates. And I suspect it'll start to fade out next week.
The Welsh poll is in line with an 11.4% Tory Lead. That is same as Survation and ahead of Panelbase and ComRes.
ICM is a worrying outlier but so far its the only poll under a double-digit lead.
Yes I agree Mandela would have been non-committal.
Bit worrying that Labour surging in Wales with yougov, wonder if that is mirrored in England too.
Looks like they may have a point!
The Welsh changes look more decisive, and it seems to be visceral support for Labour feeding through.
The thing to worry the Tories is if ICM are the ones getting it right.
38 / 32 Happy to give FU a lift to the country of his choice
In the past 3 weeks we have already seen a Labour rise in UK polls. Labour is consistently polling around 30% now instead of around 24% - so this line is rather in trend with that.
I’ll wait for Survation
Even as a day polls turned expert I am unsure.
I advised Tories need some policies.
They ignored my advice.
BTW I still think Tories are between 8 and 11 ahead ATM
Brown trouser time for Johnson.
How do they reckon that works again? Can't exactly chuck a Nuclear Power station into a wheelbarrow and take it to France.
My view is that the Tories must be close to their ceiling, whereas Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems and Greens a bit more and they have some 2017 supporters sitting on the sidelines who can still come back if they don't just sit it out.
I still think the Tories will win a small majority but something like Con 41 and Lab 36 with a hung parliament looks entirely plausible. The Tory non-manifesto was driven I assume by a desire not to distract from Get Brexit Done but has made them look out of ideas, never a good look. Anyway, nice for things to get interesting. PB Tories, wear your brown pants.
18 days from Labour Party RIP.
So much for meritocracy 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
On BlueBlue's point re canvassing, I think that even Momentum's strongest critics wouldn't say they were shy of a bit of cold weather. I offer m'learned friend my 3 hours in Portsmouth in the rain and the dark as an example.
And then again, It's Only One Poll.
The fact that international companies would even remotely contemplate moving legal ownership of assets out of the UK, let alone actually doing it, is truly terrifying - we used to be one of the countries regarded as safest for legal protections.
I have given myself time to assess it, and I think the Tory Manifesto is extremely smart manifesto and politics for a party 10 years in government. It’s called thin on detail and substance, but it pulls all leavers of leavers coalition, bobbies on beat, doctor appointments, 350M more a week for NHS, immigration.
The Tories are three nil up in polls very much into second half, last thing they need is to pick fights, give anything away to opposition, just cruise in to comfortable win now.
If anyone wants to say it’s dirty and dishonest to try and get five years around just one issue without detail on everything else you will be doing I would answer: “stop your babbling, twerp. this is politics and good politics to get away with that, others have in the past, you should too if you had the chance, unless you clearly too weak and principled for realpolitik.”
I think most of it is froth and churn though - that certainly seemed to be the case in 2010 and 2015. I suspect we'll see this post debate swing to Labour stalling and fading out next week but this week Con are going to have a big wobble.
But anything under ten points given the Opinium horror show will be very welcome by Labour . I think the Waspi announcement will help Labour , I expect even some Leavers who were effected might be moved by that .
Out from 1.06 to 1.07.
And a high turnout too. Because the stakes couldn’t be higher.