It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.
Possibly. Lune Aqueduct (on the Lancaster Canal) and Wigwell Aqueduct (on the Cromford) are probably longer. Edstone's lovely though.
Sorry - I forgot to include "cast iron"! The Lune is scary - great views but much more exposed.
I've never done the Lune - one for the list! My list of "scary places I've been on the waterways" are so far limited to the Trent tideway, and the Severn on amber-touching-red with 30mph+ crosswinds...
This is an odd one (from John Rentaul but I had to trim the tweet). The Tory party is now more popular (or, more accurately, less unpopular) than all others and much the same as it’s leader.
Weren’t Cameron and May usually more popular than the party, and wasn’t the party much lower down? All from memory so might be talking rubbish.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
That would be the same Jo Swinson who is has her party consistently polling at around 15% compared to 7% or so of her two predecessors?
If a party wins an absolute majority on the basis of a manifesto commitment it can do what the hell it wants. The fact she is doing twice as well as Cable or Farron is down to the fact that she had put clear blue water between her and Corbyn on the issue.
And what do you expect a party standing nationally to do? Say “oh, we’ll make a lovely coalition partner for someone”? Given our experience of coalition, and given the options would be between Marxist anti semitism and Fascist isolationist xenophobia, that would have been the fastest route to oblivion. We’re not as high as we were in the summer but we are a damn sight higher than we have been at an election for a decade.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
She might lose her seat...
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
That would be the same Jo Swinson who is has her party consistently polling at around 15% compared to 7% or so of her two predecessors?
If a party wins an absolute majority on the basis of a manifesto commitment it can do what the hell it wants. The fact she is doing twice as well as Cable or Farron is down to the fact that she had put clear blue water between her and Corbyn on the issue.
And what do you expect a party standing nationally to do? Say “oh, we’ll make a lovely coalition partner for someone”? Given our experience of coalition, and given the options would be between Marxist anti semitism and Fascist isolationist xenophobia, that would have been the fastest route to oblivion. We’re not as high as we were in the summer but we are a damn sight higher than we have been at an election for a decade.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
She might lose her seat...
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
YES got 38.8% in 2014 on Turnout of 91% In 2015 the SNP Candidate won with 40.3% on Turnout of 81.9% (the highest in the whole UK) In 2017 the SNP Candidate lost with 30.3% on Turnout of 78.8%
35% is almost certainly enough for Swinson to hold.
In fairness to her, she's the only Continuity Corbyn (CoCo?) candidate I can see actually doing reasonably well. She has at least something in the way of gravitas that is totally lacking from the likes of Rayner, Pidcock, Butler etc.
In this country gravitas is not required to be an electorally successful leader of a big political party. Such is about to be confirmed beyond all doubt 17 days from now.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
That would be the same Jo Swinson who is has her party consistently polling at around 15% compared to 7% or so of her two predecessors?
If a party wins an absolute majority on the basis of a manifesto commitment it can do what the hell it wants. The fact she is doing twice as well as Cable or Farron is down to the fact that she had put clear blue water between her and Corbyn on the issue.
And what do you expect a party standing nationally to do? Say “oh, we’ll make a lovely coalition partner for someone”? Given our experience of coalition, and given the options would be between Marxist anti semitism and Fascist isolationist xenophobia, that would have been the fastest route to oblivion. We’re not as high as we were in the summer but we are a damn sight higher than we have been at an election for a decade.
I would volunteer that you're as high as a kite
It’s that kind of incisive, thoughtful, witty retort that keeps me coming back here.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
She might lose her seat...
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
YES got 38.8% in 2014 on Turnout of 91% In 2015 the SNP Candidate won with 40.3% on Turnout of 81.9% (the highest in the whole UK) In 2017 the SNP Candidate lost with 30.3% on Turnout of 78.8%
35% is almost certainly enough for Swinson to hold.
I hope she hangs on. It would be nice to see if she grows up
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
That would be the same Jo Swinson who is has her party consistently polling at around 15% compared to 7% or so of her two predecessors?
If a party wins an absolute majority on the basis of a manifesto commitment it can do what the hell it wants. The fact she is doing twice as well as Cable or Farron is down to the fact that she had put clear blue water between her and Corbyn on the issue.
And what do you expect a party standing nationally to do? Say “oh, we’ll make a lovely coalition partner for someone”? Given our experience of coalition, and given the options would be between Marxist anti semitism and Fascist isolationist xenophobia, that would have been the fastest route to oblivion. We’re not as high as we were in the summer but we are a damn sight higher than we have been at an election for a decade.
I would volunteer that you're as high as a kite
It’s that kind of incisive, thoughtful, witty retort that keeps me coming back here.
It would be a profound relief to have Ed back. Not sure I'd vote for him, but at least I wouldn't be quaking in my carpet slippers. And Edstone is England's longest aqueduct. Not many people know that.
Possibly. Lune Aqueduct (on the Lancaster Canal) and Wigwell Aqueduct (on the Cromford) are probably longer. Edstone's lovely though.
Sorry - I forgot to include "cast iron"! The Lune is scary - great views but much more exposed.
I've never done the Lune - one for the list! My list of "scary places I've been on the waterways" are so far limited to the Trent tideway, and the Severn on amber-touching-red with 30mph+ crosswinds...
Beyond that it depends on how badly they lose, and what the assumed reasons settle on being during the aftermath. That the likes of Pidcock are even in the betting indicates that they aren’t overwhelmed with talent.
I reckon that's also a big reason why Swinson got it for the LDs.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
If I was a Tory, I would consider myself to be lucky beyond belief to be facing any of those listed. Anglea Eagle? Come on, please.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
She might lose her seat...
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
YES got 38.8% in 2014 on Turnout of 91% In 2015 the SNP Candidate won with 40.3% on Turnout of 81.9% (the highest in the whole UK) In 2017 the SNP Candidate lost with 30.3% on Turnout of 78.8%
35% is almost certainly enough for Swinson to hold.
Yes, it is worth nothing that Jo Swinson, in 2015, achieved the impossible.
She raised the total LibDem vote count in her constituency. In an election where the LDs lost almost two thirds of their votes nationwide, she went from 18,551 to 19,926 votes. That was far and away the best LibDem performance of the night.
She then increased her vote total again in 2017, taking the seat easily as the SNP fell back.
So, while she might lose this time around, she's clearly a doughty campaigner and locally popular.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
I did suggest that was the risk of letting all those no-mark MPs join up to the LibDems just to get their Westminster pay-offs. Anything under 20 MPs will now look rather shabby.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Been listening to Ed Millibands 'Reasons to be Cheerful' podcasts while on the bike, treadmill & so on at the gym. Comes across as a rather gentle, but thoughtful and self-deprecating chap, who nevertheless learns from mistakes and thinks about what he's doing. Labour could do a lot worse than go back to him.
Been listening to Ed Millibands 'Reasons to be Cheerful' podcasts while on the bike, treadmill & so on at the gym. Comes across as a rather gentle, but thoughtful and self-deprecating chap, who nevertheless learns from mistakes and thinks about what he's doing. Labour could do a lot worse than go back to him.
Yes I agree, I don't think there would be another Edstone...
I have not heard any whispers from the poll, but based on some feedback from the streets: Corbyn is strongly disliked - but Tories still toxic in much of Wales. Brexit Party not getting anywhere. Plaid doing well in places but not widely. LDs disappearing without a trace.
Expect Welsh polls to show repeat of 2017.... but on the other hand Scully did say Blimey again....
I have taken the plunge and wagered £5 on PC winning Ronddha. If Labour are collapsing, it will be in places like the valleys that it collapses the most. In most valleys seats they can bear this easily, as voters aren't going to switch to the Cons (or indeed the LDs) - but where PC has a presence there might be a target to switch to. 15-1 on Betfair if you agree with my logic! To be clear, I don't expect this to happen, but I don't think it's as unlikely as the odds suggest.
They might win Rhondda....but Ronddha not so much....
Sorry - had several goes at getting the consonants in the right order and quantity and clearly failed.
I'm pretty sure that if he did come back, it would take me about a month to decide he was essentially a Marxist again. It would be an interesting experiment in perceptions, I guess.
If Ed is a Marxist, we definitely need a new word for Marxist.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
I did suggest that was the risk of letting all those no-mark MPs join up to the LibDems just to get their Westminster pay-offs. Anything under 20 MPs will now look rather shabby.
I think you're suffering a bit from recency bias.
In just 13 years ('97-'10) in the post WW2 period did the LDs get more than about twenty seats in a General Election. To get back to that level within four years of being almost completely wiped out is objectively a pretty good achievement.
In fairness to her, she's the only Continuity Corbyn (CoCo?) candidate I can see actually doing reasonably well. She has at least something in the way of gravitas that is totally lacking from the likes of Rayner, Pidcock, Butler etc.
In this country gravitas is not required to be an electorally successful leader of a big political party. Such is about to be confirmed beyond all doubt 17 days from now.
Hmm, you're right that "gravitas" isn't quite the word I'm looking for. "Substance" isn't much better. "Presence"?
Alternatively, is it perhaps the case that the major party leader with the most of [whatever the right word is] is currently ahead in the polls?
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
She might lose her seat...
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
YES got 38.8% in 2014 on Turnout of 91% In 2015 the SNP Candidate won with 40.3% on Turnout of 81.9% (the highest in the whole UK) In 2017 the SNP Candidate lost with 30.3% on Turnout of 78.8%
35% is almost certainly enough for Swinson to hold.
Yes, it is worth nothing that Jo Swinson, in 2015, achieved the impossible.
She raised the total LibDem vote count in her constituency. In an election where the LDs lost almost two thirds of their votes nationwide, she went from 18,551 to 19,926 votes. That was far and away the best LibDem performance of the night.
She then increased her vote total again in 2017, taking the seat easily as the SNP fell back.
So, while she might lose this time around, she's clearly a doughty campaigner and locally popular.
In the face of much mockery I tipped Swinson as a good value bet for holding her seat in 2015 as she would clearly be the beneficiary of Unionist tactical voting.
Of course the irony is that 19,926 votes was a two and a half percentage points lower than her 2010 score.
Is there a reason why Thornberry is so low? She's good at the dispatch box, ardent Remainer, but good friends with the Corbyn wing. I think if she got McDonnell on side, she'd win it easy.
Is there a reason why Thornberry is so low? She's good at the dispatch box, ardent Remainer, but good friends with the Corbyn wing. I think if she got McDonnell on side, she'd win it easy.
That would be the same Jo Swinson who is has her party consistently polling at around 15% compared to 7% or so of her two predecessors?
If a party wins an absolute majority on the basis of a manifesto commitment it can do what the hell it wants. The fact she is doing twice as well as Cable or Farron is down to the fact that she had put clear blue water between her and Corbyn on the issue.
And what do you expect a party standing nationally to do? Say “oh, we’ll make a lovely coalition partner for someone”? Given our experience of coalition, and given the options would be between Marxist anti semitism and Fascist isolationist xenophobia, that would have been the fastest route to oblivion. We’re not as high as we were in the summer but we are a damn sight higher than we have been at an election for a decade.
No Swinson fan, me, but I do think this "lol" at her saying she can be PM is silly. The LDs stand in every seat, she is a rank outsider, sure, but nevertheless a contender. And with the choice of Johnson or Corbyn being so polarizing, and with Farage on the scene, it was not utterly impossible for something wild to happen. It probably is now, but it certainly wasn't when the GE was called.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Do you still get pre-sight of these polls these days? Obviously not asking for any hints as I know the rules but just wondered out of interest if you already know what is in the two polls?
I'm pretty sure that if he did come back, it would take me about a month to decide he was essentially a Marxist again. It would be an interesting experiment in perceptions, I guess.
If Ed is a Marxist, we definitely need a new word for Marxist.
Yes I'd love to see what his real kitchen looks like.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Political intellectuals like the Cooper-Balls and the Eagles are out of fashion in Labour.
The problem for Labour is not that the membership is mad, it's that there are no moderates who can chart out a way ahead that doesn't look like surrender to Toryism. And they're all lightweight figures themselves.
The only Labour MP who is capable of sticking it to the Tories without being a Corbyn apologist is Jess Phillips, but there's no sign that she has the answers.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
Cooper has some attractive features, but she is a quitter, not a fighter.
After all, if she had not gone on holiday and left Corby to campaign, Corby might never have won the Labour leadership contest.
I don't think Cooper has the fighting qualities for what lies ahead.
There is a fantastic photo, by the way, of Boris shearing a sheep at the telegraph webpage at the moment. I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up. My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
I really don't understand that. I always found him a very human and sympathetic figure. But obviously you know the party better. I just think it is a shame.
Do you still get pre-sight of these polls these days? Obviously not asking for any hints as I know the rules but just wondered out of interest if you already know what is in the two polls?
Some not all.
Most pollsters do tell me when there is a poll due even if they do not give the details of what the poll shows.
In fairness to her, she's the only Continuity Corbyn (CoCo?) candidate I can see actually doing reasonably well. She has at least something in the way of gravitas that is totally lacking from the likes of Rayner, Pidcock, Butler etc.
In this country gravitas is not required to be an electorally successful leader of a big political party. Such is about to be confirmed beyond all doubt 17 days from now.
Hmm, you're right that "gravitas" isn't quite the word I'm looking for. "Substance" isn't much better. "Presence"?
Alternatively, is it perhaps the case that the major party leader with the most of [whatever the right word is] is currently ahead in the polls?
"Bottom" is traditionally used, though more so in the blue team, perhaps.
There is a fantastic photo, by the way, of Boris shearing a sheep at the telegraph webpage at the moment. I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up. My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
Given who has won the Nobel Peace Prize they might have a point.
The problem for Labour is not that the membership is mad, it's that there are no moderates who can chart out a way ahead that doesn't look like surrender to Toryism. And they're all lightweight figures themselves.
The only Labour MP who is capable of sticking it to the Tories without being a Corbyn apologist is Jess Phillips, but there's no sign that she has the answers.
The moderates' self-exclusion from the Shadow Cabinet shot themselves in the foot. They've all missed their chance to project themselves as a future leader. You need to be on the front bench for that.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
I really don't understand that. I always found him a very human and sympathetic figure. But obviously you know the party better. I just think it is a shame.
He was the one I liked the least in the Brown government. And then he lost his seat and gave a decent and generous concession speech, and he turned almost instantly into a human. It wasn't the strictly effect for me (oh, the inanity) but an interview I heard with him on the radio a couple of weeks after. Came across as totally normal. Why can't politicians do this while they're in office? I think they spend so much time in the Westminster bubble that they think the constant baiting of the opposition is a normal way to behave, rather than making you appear a jerk.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
Cooper has some attractive features, but she is a quitter, not a fighter.
After all, if she had not gone on holiday and left Corby to campaign, Corby might never have won the Labour leadership contest.
I don't think Cooper has the fighting qualities for what lies ahead.
Besides, even Tom Watson does not.
Johnson is looking at a decade in Downing Street, the way things look at the moment.
I suspect Labour will need to go through another longest suicide note election after this one before sense is returned.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
I really don't understand that. I always found him a very human and sympathetic figure. But obviously you know the party better. I just think it is a shame.
Wasn't he mixed up with all that Damien McBride nastiness?
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
I really don't understand that. I always found him a very human and sympathetic figure. But obviously you know the party better. I just think it is a shame.
Wasn't he mixed up with all that Damien McBride nastiness?
I think that was more Tom Watson, though nothing stuck.
Been listening to Ed Millibands 'Reasons to be Cheerful' podcasts while on the bike, treadmill & so on at the gym. Comes across as a rather gentle, but thoughtful and self-deprecating chap, who nevertheless learns from mistakes and thinks about what he's doing. Labour could do a lot worse than go back to him.
The affection for politicians past and disdain for the present batch always reminds me of the conversation about art between M. Danglars & The Count of Monte Cristo
“If you will permit me, I shall be happy to show you my picture gallery, composed entirely of works by the ancient masters—warranted as such. Not a modern picture among them. I cannot endure the modern school of painting.”
“You are perfectly right in objecting to them, for this one great fault—that they have not yet had time to become old.”
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
Cooper has some attractive features, but she is a quitter, not a fighter.
After all, if she had not gone on holiday and left Corby to campaign, Corby might never have won the Labour leadership contest.
I don't think Cooper has the fighting qualities for what lies ahead.
Besides, even Tom Watson does not.
Johnson is looking at a decade in Downing Street, the way things look at the moment.
I suspect Labour will need to go through another longest suicide note election after this one before sense is returned.
Is the manifesto sufficiently in line with what the members want, that there won't be room to argue afterwards that it wasn't socialist enough, or similar?
Whatever the generally accepted reason for defeat is, will have major ramifications on the subject in the thread header.
I suspect Labour will need to go through another longest suicide note election after this one before sense is returned.
The election after this one is the one that worries me.
We could potentially be 14 years in to a Tory government and if Labour have got rid of their moderates and stopped talking about the EU they could come back with an even more radical manifesto and be in with a shout.
We've already had the chat in our house about bringing forward retirement plans abroad to avoid any stops on QROPS, or wider capital controls, in the event of the prospect of 2024 hard Labour win.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
I suspect Labour will need to go through another longest suicide note election after this one before sense is returned.
The election after this one is the one that worries me.
We could potentially be 14 years in to a Tory government and if Labour have got rid of their moderates and stopped talking about the EU they could come back with an even more radical manifesto and be in with a shout.
We've already had the chat in our house about bringing forward retirement plans abroad to avoid any stops on QROPS, or wider capital controls, in the event of the prospect of 2024 hard Labour win.
If Labour don't come to their senses and put someone sensible in I think 2023/2024 is more likely to see the Lib-Dems replace Labour as the official Opposition.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
You're assuming Jo Swinson keeps her seat and remains as leader of the Liberal Democrats - and becomes serious herself.
Jo "I will become next Prime Minister and revoke Article 50 without another referendum" Swinson is anything but serious. The Lib Dems could end this General Election with fewer MPs than it had going into the election thanks to her.
I did suggest that was the risk of letting all those no-mark MPs join up to the LibDems just to get their Westminster pay-offs. Anything under 20 MPs will now look rather shabby.
I did love the story about the horror the no-mark MP who referred to people as having a "funny tinge" when she realised after doing a Chicken Run that she was no long entitled to a pay-off should she lose [or when she loses]. Oh dear, what a shame!
Been listening to Ed Millibands 'Reasons to be Cheerful' podcasts while on the bike, treadmill & so on at the gym. Comes across as a rather gentle, but thoughtful and self-deprecating chap, who nevertheless learns from mistakes and thinks about what he's doing. Labour could do a lot worse than go back to him.
The affection for politicians past and disdain for the present batch always reminds me of the conversation about art between M. Danglars & The Count of Monte Cristo
“If you will permit me, I shall be happy to show you my picture gallery, composed entirely of works by the ancient masters—warranted as such. Not a modern picture among them. I cannot endure the modern school of painting.”
“You are perfectly right in objecting to them, for this one great fault—that they have not yet had time to become old.”
Touch of class there, Iam! Not just a pretty face, but a man of letters too.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
If you ever need confirmation of Goodall's pro labour bias you have it here and it has been going on for weeks
I tend to think most of us on PB are more informed than him. He always says 'my instinct is...' and then describes exactly what all the polls imply with an added caveat that Labour are bound to improve because thats what happened in 2017 and people can't actually like the Tories.
Labour’s Shadow Housing Minister, Sarah Jones, was all over the shop about WASPI women on Politics Live today.
Labour getting WASPI stung?
Its a stupid promise TBF
It'a also a promise that could never be fulfilled. The economic damage wreaked by Corbyn will make that certain. I'm not even sure the women affected really believe it's possible.
Apparently Alister Campbell is doorknocking for Lib Dems and Labour in different seats depending on the Labour candidates. He says there are an awful people of all persuasions who are not certain. Perhaps we should ban all polls or just ignore them, they could be misleading everyone. Remember they are not to be taken as accurate, always a margin of error, and really only point to trends. The single one I check on is the large scale constituency exit poll at 22.00 on polling day.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
There is a fantastic photo, by the way, of Boris shearing a sheep at the telegraph webpage at the moment. I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up. My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
IMO his biggest attraction for many people (particularly apoliticals) is that he appears to not take himself at all seriously. And his main strength is also his main weakness. Because it is that very same thing - more precisely the sense that he takes nothing seriously - which turns off many other people, the more thoughtful types.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
I know it is very unlikely now but if her hubby ever decided to get back into Parliament I think he would also bring a lot of support back to Labour.
Ed Balls used to be one of those politicians people took an instinctive dislike to, so unless Strictly has changed that, which it might have done, I'm not sure he is the king across the water.
Ah, but that was before Corbyn and Pals showed just how good the politicians of Ed Ball's era actually were.
In fairness to her, she's the only Continuity Corbyn (CoCo?) candidate I can see actually doing reasonably well. She has at least something in the way of gravitas that is totally lacking from the likes of Rayner, Pidcock, Butler etc.
In this country gravitas is not required to be an electorally successful leader of a big political party. Such is about to be confirmed beyond all doubt 17 days from now.
Hmm, you're right that "gravitas" isn't quite the word I'm looking for. "Substance" isn't much better. "Presence"?
Alternatively, is it perhaps the case that the major party leader with the most of [whatever the right word is] is currently ahead in the polls?
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
And the IPPR he worked for is a left wing think tank and he is very much a labour supporter
Playing the man and not the ball again.
PS - Am fairly certain one of the PM’s SPADs worked for the IPPR.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
Now they have something to compare it to. I think Sunil posted earlier about polls swinging one way then the opposite in elections - 2010 understate labour, 2015 overstate labour, 2017 understate labour - is it going to swing the other way again?
Apparently Alister Campbell is doorknocking for Lib Dems and Labour in different seats depending on the Labour candidates. He says there are an awful people of all persuasions who are not certain. Perhaps we should ban all polls or just ignore them, they could be misleading everyone. Remember they are not to be taken as accurate, always a margin of error, and really only point to trends. The single one I check on is the large scale constituency exit poll at 22.00 on polling day.
Isn't the 'uncertainty' thing, well, uncertain? How many people say they are uncertain when really they have already made up their minds? Shy Tories and indeed shy Labour now. Campbell is one of the 'all to play for' mongers, like Abbott, so the more his claims about uncertains, the more I disbelieve him.
Last time they managed to elect as leader the candidate Labour's enemies had paid £3 to join and vote for in order to help destroy the party.
The question really is will they do something similar again, or will they ask: Who does Boris and Tories fear as the next leader.
If they appoint RL-B or LP then I think it won't be long before Jo Swinson is the leader of the serious opposition. Dawn Butler and Richard Burgon are unthinkable as candidates for a serious party.
If I were a Tory I would fear, in this order, Angela Eagle Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer and John McDonnell. John McDonnell is a bit special in that he is an extremist but very good on the media.
I expect Momentum and co will act according to form and find a way of finally destroying the Labour party.
I think Kier Starmer is pretty useless. I'm not that impressed by Angela Eagle. Hilary Benn is a kindly uncle figure, not a leader. John McDonnell is dangerously articulate for a man of his views. Yvette Cooper I rate, but she's also sunk without trace in the last four years.
I was with you entirely until the last sentence. Cooper was leading the opposition (if not actually Leader of the Opposition) pretty effectively throughout the anti-No-Deal/anti-Brexit incident. While she has no chance of becoming leader, I think she's one of the few Labour MPs (maybe all MPs) whose reputation has been enhanced recently.
Cooper would, by a country mile, be the best leader Labour could elect. Therefore a virtual certainty to be discarded. I've even forgiven her for HIPS - a typical half-baked civil service brainwave that a minister should have resisted but all too often doesn't.
Cooper has some attractive features, but she is a quitter, not a fighter.
After all, if she had not gone on holiday and left Corby to campaign, Corby might never have won the Labour leadership contest.
I don't think Cooper has the fighting qualities for what lies ahead.
Besides, even Tom Watson does not.
Are you still predicting meltdown for PC? Going by the polls they seem to be doing fine.
He's been seemingly pushing this line for a few weeks now. I find for a journalist he projects what he wants to happen far too often without really understanding how the polls work.
He's right though when you look at the cross tabs. The undecideds skew towards people who voted Labour last time.
And if turnout is high because people consider this an important election, then that should favour Labour and prove him correct.
How's that for a poster NOT posting what they want to happen?
Comments
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1198935529242402816
Khan: Even better, I'll ban them altogether.
Weren’t Cameron and May usually more popular than the party, and wasn’t the party much lower down? All from memory so might be talking rubbish.
If a party wins an absolute majority on the basis of a manifesto commitment it can do what the hell it wants. The fact she is doing twice as well as Cable or Farron is down to the fact that she had put clear blue water between her and Corbyn on the issue.
And what do you expect a party standing nationally to do? Say “oh, we’ll make a lovely coalition partner for someone”? Given our experience of coalition, and given the options would be between Marxist anti semitism and Fascist isolationist xenophobia, that would have been the fastest route to oblivion. We’re not as high as we were in the summer but we are a damn sight higher than we have been at an election for a decade.
But don't forget that (a) she was 10 points clear of the SNP in 2017; (b) the LDs are up more than the SNP in Scotland; and (c) her seat was more than 70% remain, which makes it one of the remainiest in the whole country.
While she could lose, party leaders tend to get a boost, and the nature of Scottish politics is that she probably only needs 35-37% to hold the seat. I'd probably need odds of 6-1 or more to want to bet on her losing.
In 2015 the SNP Candidate won with 40.3% on Turnout of 81.9% (the highest in the whole UK)
In 2017 the SNP Candidate lost with 30.3% on Turnout of 78.8%
35% is almost certainly enough for Swinson to hold.
I tipped Labour to win Edinburgh South during the 2015 SNP landslide.
How fucking good am I?
She raised the total LibDem vote count in her constituency. In an election where the LDs lost almost two thirds of their votes nationwide, she went from 18,551 to 19,926 votes. That was far and away the best LibDem performance of the night.
She then increased her vote total again in 2017, taking the seat easily as the SNP fell back.
So, while she might lose this time around, she's clearly a doughty campaigner and locally popular.
In just 13 years ('97-'10) in the post WW2 period did the LDs get more than about twenty seats in a General Election. To get back to that level within four years of being almost completely wiped out is objectively a pretty good achievement.
Alternatively, is it perhaps the case that the major party leader with the most of [whatever the right word is] is currently ahead in the polls?
Of course the irony is that 19,926 votes was a two and a half percentage points lower than her 2010 score.
Sad to see.
Brexiteers can have fun with tactical voting too.
There is a wall of money waiting to back the Tories.
Of gravitas he has almost none.
He's similar to somebody like Freddie Starr in this regard.
The only Labour MP who is capable of sticking it to the Tories without being a Corbyn apologist is Jess Phillips, but there's no sign that she has the answers.
After all, if she had not gone on holiday and left Corby to campaign, Corby might never have won the Labour leadership contest.
I don't think Cooper has the fighting qualities for what lies ahead.
Besides, even Tom Watson does not.
I can think of no other political party leader who can get away with stuff like this. Ed Miliband attempts to eat a bacon sandwich and gets pilloried. Boris adopts a strange squatting position while waving an electric clipper ineptly towards a sheep while shepherds look on in concern and the paper which is his main cheerleader publishes it, confident that it is a good look and that people will think better of him as a result. And it works - they do. Not everyone - for the Rogers of this world he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and they'd find a reason to vilify him - but a truly surprising number of people lap it up.
My theory is it's that he appears to be enjoying himself. He reminds me of MacMillan in that respect (though obviously that was long before my time) - he campaigns with enthusiasm and energy and joy, and people respond on a visceral level.
Most pollsters do tell me when there is a poll due even if they do not give the details of what the poll shows.
@roger_scully
·
1h
The next Welsh Political Barometer poll, by @YouGov
for @ITVWales
and @cardiffuni
, will be published by @ITVWales
and on my blog (http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/) at 5pm today.
This is one that will certainly be worth the wait...
I suspect Labour will need to go through another longest suicide note election after this one before sense is returned.
“If you will permit me, I shall be happy to show you my picture gallery, composed entirely of works by the ancient masters—warranted as such. Not a modern picture among them. I cannot endure the modern school of painting.”
“You are perfectly right in objecting to them, for this one great fault—that they have not yet had time to become old.”
It was just knee jerk and not thought out in a desperate attempt to add a few more votes to labour
Whatever the generally accepted reason for defeat is, will have major ramifications on the subject in the thread header.
We could potentially be 14 years in to a Tory government and if Labour have got rid of their moderates and stopped talking about the EU they could come back with an even more radical manifesto and be in with a shout.
We've already had the chat in our house about bringing forward retirement plans abroad to avoid any stops on QROPS, or wider capital controls, in the event of the prospect of 2024 hard Labour win.
It would be nice to return some accountability to this country. Fat chance though.
He knows how the polls works from his stint at the IPPR.
I’ve seen his presentations on the polls, he knows what he is talking about, back in late 2016 he did some polling analysis saying that at the next GE Labour leave voters wouldn’t back the Tories saying they wanted a different type of Brexit to Tory Leavers, that they didn’t want Singapore on the Thames.
He was right then.
But surely we should expect better from a journalist with a major news organisation.
PS - Am fairly certain one of the PM’s SPADs worked for the IPPR.
NB Before anyone panics, that's just a thought!
How's that for a poster NOT posting what they want to happen?