I have been following the comments on nurses and fail to understand the focus on what a 50k increase means. Surely the more important question is the plan to achieve such an increase. Boris' vague mumblings on the topic remind me of my old marketing departments attempts to fix a spreadsheet to produce a business plan which did not look utterly ludicrous. I have no problem with aspiring to achieve a huge increase in nurses but the numbers do not add up.
There are not enough training places. There are not enough lecturers available to rapidly increase places. The introduction of tuition fees has made nurse training less attractive. After Brexit we will be less well placed to recruit abroad. EU nurses are now going home rather than increasing in numbers. Trained nurses can get better pay elsewhere (such as managing care homes, which is what my sister does).
Unfortunately, whilst the aspiration may be genuine, either Boris is a complete idiot or a pathological liar to suggest it is credible.
I do wonder if Johnson and the media have built Corbyn up to be apparently so bad that literally anything he does is seen as an improvement. I wonder if this is backfiring.
'''Who knew that bunging millions of people tens of thousands in public money could buy their vote? '''
Sp what are the tories going to do? nothing?
The Waspi move is genius though. The people receiving it don't think of it as a bribe, the sums are huge it may convert enough target voters to change the result. I think a million extra votes are heading to Corbyn unless something clever is done to change sentiment.
The conservatives should make it clear they waspi women are taking the money out of their own kids' pockets.
It won't work. Firstly the stick bangers want their money now. Secondly their kids get compensation in the form of inheritance. Fuck everybody else's.
The apparent success of this bribe, particularly if it does get Labour into power in the end, is deeply ironic. It's proof of that notorious claim by Thatcher that there's no such thing as society. Folk care about 1. themselves, 2. their immediate family, and at the very most 3. close friends, in that order. Everyone is in it for themselves. It's the L'Oreal theory of politics: people will always vote in the first instance to help themselves to other people's money, "because I'm worth it."
Labour's offer only ceases to appeal if the people actually think they're going to be made to cough up for their own bribes. Otherwise they will work. The old bats think they're going to get oodles of free money, so of course they're going to vote for it. If enough other voters think the same then Labour wins. It's that simple.
I agree. The rational and moral arguments will have a marginal effect. There are two possible counters attacks that might work.
1. A more reasonable but still substantial counter offer. Making that and not looking weak and irresponsible is difficult. What they could do is offer to set up a review with independent highly regarded people (get them named publicly) and agree to pay the levels of compensation recommended. 2. An effective operation fear. God knows there is enough ammunition! Best to enrol lots of outsiders to add weight. People have got to realise that they stand a good chance of unemployment, homelessness and the destruction of (even public sector) pensions if the madmen take over.
I do wonder if Johnson and the media have built Corbyn up to be apparently so bad that literally anything he does is seen as an improvement. I wonder if this is backfiring.
Nothing would be effective against this combination of massive bribery and voter credulity. It may be that we simply have to accept that the Momentum mob are going to get their turn running the country. Either everybody else who's paying attention is wrong and it'll work brilliantly, or we'll be completely fucked.
Following the latter eventuality, the surviving fraction of the population that hasn't emigrated or perished as a result might finally have learned not to be so silly in future.
I do wonder if Johnson and the media have built Corbyn up to be apparently so bad that literally anything he does is seen as an improvement. I wonder if this is backfiring.
They need to concentrate on the detail of the policies, there is so much dangerous crap in the LP manifesto but it needs pointing out.
IMO the gold standard is the average of all polls published over the last 7 days. These are the current figures: Con 42.5%, Lab 30.2%, LD 15.0%, BRX 3.8%, SNP 3.6%, Grn 3.2%
I do wonder if Johnson and the media have built Corbyn up to be apparently so bad that literally anything he does is seen as an improvement. I wonder if this is backfiring.
They need to concentrate on the detail of the policies, there is so much dangerous crap in the LP manifesto but it needs pointing out.
It won't work. The robots hear "NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS" and all go flooding back, and a great load of floating voters read that they're going to get free money and free internet and free ponies and everything else and follow suit. Hardly anyone gives a gnat's wotsit about detail. They've convinced themselves that they're going to get stuff and someone else will pay for it. Nothing more need be said.
I do wonder if Johnson and the media have built Corbyn up to be apparently so bad that literally anything he does is seen as an improvement. I wonder if this is backfiring.
They need to concentrate on the detail of the policies, there is so much dangerous crap in the LP manifesto but it needs pointing out.
The problem is they have little to offer in return, which is why they've kept quiet about the WASPI proposal and why their manifesto was so barebones. They know they can't do it.
Their hope - and it may well still be right - is that barebones proposals will be enough to get them over the line.
That nurses thing was an absolute own goal though. 20,000 more nurses would have sounded fine...
IMO the gold standard is the average of all polls published over the last 7 days. These are the current figures:
Con 42.5% Lab 30.2% LD 15.0% BRX 3.8% SNP 3.6% Grn 3.2%
Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, if you'd done this in 2017 you wouldn't have been any closer to the true result.
Quite. Give it time. The Corbyn surge is well underway, it's just taken marginally longer to get going than last time.
You're one of the few non-Labourites to believe it will happen again, which I find very interesting.
The youth vote is also going to have a potentially huge impact, if they all vote. And they have a lot of reasons to, they may well treat it as a second referendum.
Their hope - and it may well still be right - is that barebones proposals will be enough to get them over the line.
No it's not right. Prudence versus free everything will crash and burn. People want free everything. As soon as they've fully convinced themselves that it really can be done and someone else really will pay for it, they'll switch sides.
Scrub what I said earlier about 50:50 Tory maj vs Hung Parliament. It's 50:50 on whether Labour will be the largest party or win the election outright.
IMO the gold standard is the average of all polls published over the last 7 days. These are the current figures:
Con 42.5% Lab 30.2% LD 15.0% BRX 3.8% SNP 3.6% Grn 3.2%
Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, if you'd done this in 2017 you wouldn't have been any closer to the true result.
Quite. Give it time. The Corbyn surge is well underway, it's just taken marginally longer to get going than last time.
You're basing that on one poll from ICM? Before that the Labour shares were 30, 30, 30, 28.
It was one poll last time that started this all, be interesting to see what Survation says.
The interesting thing is the Tory vote dropping in Survation and ICM, within MOE of course - but I wonder if the Tory lead will drop into the 30s shortly. Then they're in real trouble, because at that point Labour has the votes to overtake them (in theory).
I do wonder if Johnson and the media have built Corbyn up to be apparently so bad that literally anything he does is seen as an improvement. I wonder if this is backfiring.
They need to concentrate on the detail of the policies, there is so much dangerous crap in the LP manifesto but it needs pointing out.
It won't work. The robots hear "NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS" and all go flooding back, and a great load of floating voters read that they're going to get free money and free internet and free ponies and everything else and follow suit. Hardly anyone gives a gnat's wotsit about detail. They've convinced themselves that they're going to get stuff and someone else will pay for it. Nothing more need be said.
Although I agreed with some of what you've said tonight and I do think the Waspi issue is dangerous and difficult to counter effectively, you are being a tad too pessimistic! Feelings against Corbyn and what he stands for run deep but the key message that must be rammed home is that Labour are a clear an present danger to the living standards of almost everyone. High mortgage rates, big tax increases, huge rise in unemployment and a crashed economy with public services in ruin.
IMO the gold standard is the average of all polls published over the last 7 days. These are the current figures:
Con 42.5% Lab 30.2% LD 15.0% BRX 3.8% SNP 3.6% Grn 3.2%
Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, if you'd done this in 2017 you wouldn't have been any closer to the true result.
Quite. Give it time. The Corbyn surge is well underway, it's just taken marginally longer to get going than last time.
You're basing that on one poll from ICM? Before that the Labour shares were 30, 30, 30, 28.
It was one poll last time that started this all, be interesting to see what Survation says.
The interesting thing is the Tory vote dropping in Survation and ICM, within MOE of course - but I wonder if the Tory lead will drop into the 30s shortly. Then they're in real trouble, because at that point Labour has the votes to overtake them (in theory).
Comments
There are not enough training places.
There are not enough lecturers available to rapidly increase places.
The introduction of tuition fees has made nurse training less attractive.
After Brexit we will be less well placed to recruit abroad.
EU nurses are now going home rather than increasing in numbers.
Trained nurses can get better pay elsewhere (such as managing care homes, which is what my sister does).
Unfortunately, whilst the aspiration may be genuine, either Boris is a complete idiot or a pathological liar to suggest it is credible.
Oh, and BTW, who gives a flying fuck about any of this bollocks?
Raab was heard to be complaining about Lib Dems being bussed in. My man on the spot says they were hardly shock troops, more like R4 listeners.
Raab's Tory predecessor in Esher and Walton, Ian Taylor has also called on people to vote Lib Dem today.
1. A more reasonable but still substantial counter offer. Making that and not looking weak and irresponsible is difficult. What they could do is offer to set up a review with independent highly regarded people (get them named publicly) and agree to pay the levels of compensation recommended.
2. An effective operation fear. God knows there is enough ammunition! Best to enrol lots of outsiders to add weight. People have got to realise that they stand a good chance of unemployment, homelessness and the destruction of (even public sector) pensions if the madmen take over.
Following the latter eventuality, the surviving fraction of the population that hasn't emigrated or perished as a result might finally have learned not to be so silly in future.
Con 42.5%, Lab 30.2%, LD 15.0%, BRX 3.8%, SNP 3.6%, Grn 3.2%
Their hope - and it may well still be right - is that barebones proposals will be enough to get them over the line.
That nurses thing was an absolute own goal though. 20,000 more nurses would have sounded fine...
The youth vote is also going to have a potentially huge impact, if they all vote. And they have a lot of reasons to, they may well treat it as a second referendum.
Scrub what I said earlier about 50:50 Tory maj vs Hung Parliament. It's 50:50 on whether Labour will be the largest party or win the election outright.
The interesting thing is the Tory vote dropping in Survation and ICM, within MOE of course - but I wonder if the Tory lead will drop into the 30s shortly. Then they're in real trouble, because at that point Labour has the votes to overtake them (in theory).
Either that or it's the massive Tory majority of PBTory dreams evaporating before their eyes.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing