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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

SystemSystem Posts: 12,602
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

The betdata.io chart shows the last five days on the Betfair exchange and as can be seen there was almost no movement. The Tories are still rated by punters as having a 65% chance of securing a majority.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited November 2019
    First like, sadly, Johnson despite everything.

    Though I have the feeling this is creeping back to hung parliament territory rather than Conservative majority. The Banter Heuristic dictates that the balance of power after 12 December should be exactly the same as it is at present.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,105
    never thought it would
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,225
    edited November 2019
    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    The candidate opposed abortion and same sex marriage
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,225
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,225
    El_Capitano said:

    First like, sadly, Johnson despite everything.

    Though I have the feeling this is creeping back to hung parliament territory rather than Conservative majority. The Banter Heuristic dictates that the balance of power after 12 December should be exactly the same as it is at present.

    There needs to be clear movement from the Tories to Labour or the LDs by polling day for that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,225
    The debate changes little, it needs a big win by one candidate to really move voting intention polls significantly and that did not happen
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    Flello is a thug in hock to the haulage industry. A less likely Lib Dem it's hard to imagine, and he should never have been selected in the first place.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    The candidate opposed abortion and same sex marriage

    And having been a labour MP had the voting record to show that he held those views the implication that he was deselected for being a Roman Catholic is somewhat misleading.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    BladeRunner was set today. Amazing how Philip K Dick’s visions have endured so well. He captured the banality and emptiness of the future like no other science fiction writer.

    Effinger. Gibson.
    Is Effinger as good as Neuromancer trilogy Gibson, or only as good as the subsequent stuff?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    The candidate opposed abortion and same sex marriage

    And having been a labour MP had the voting record to show that he held those views the implication that he was deselected for being a Roman Catholic is somewhat misleading.
    The idea that any political Party would deselect someone for being a Catholic is absurd.

    Who is this cretin?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,902
    El_Capitano said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    Flello is a thug in hock to the haulage industry. A less likely Lib Dem it's hard to imagine, and he should never have been selected in the first place.
    This happens every election time to all mainstream parties.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20

    17 year olds can register.

    In Scotland 14 year olds can register.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,830
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20


    If they are in University owned registration the head of the household (i.e. the University) has a legal duty to register them.

    Equally a university probably has enough duty of care to auto-register 17 year olds (18 year olds are a slightly different matter).

    Either way registring them does not mean they vote - it just means they don't accidently miss out on their right to vote.

    It's almost like the sun doesn't want people voting.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    El_Capitano said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    Flello is a thug in hock to the haulage industry. A less likely Lib Dem it's hard to imagine, and he should never have been selected in the first place.
    Pretty disgraceful headline from the Tablet. More accurate would have been "Lib Dems deselect homophobe as election candidate".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,279
    Good morning

    Shambles is my conclusion of the debate last night.

    Leaders, shambles, Julie Etchingham, shambles, ITV, shambles, format, shambles, and Sky after, shambles and unwatchable

    I switched off the media, played classical music, had a cup of tea, and drifted off to sleep before rising at 4.30 am to take my daughter and son in law to Manchester Airport

    If last night is anything to go by I recommend switching off the media for all further debates for peace of mind
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,902
    I wonder if the risk to the Tories over the manifesto is now the other way.

    If they’re not careful they’ll make it so short, meaningless and anodyne it will raise questions about their real vision and programme for Government.

    They should learn from GE2017 but also not overreact.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20

    Usual Sun bollocks
  • eekeek Posts: 30,830
    HYUFD said:

    The debate changes little, it needs a big win by one candidate to really move voting intention polls significantly and that did not happen

    Yep - the only thing that will change things was always going to be an actual news story or a manifesto screw up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,902
    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    kamski said:

    El_Capitano said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    Flello is a thug in hock to the haulage industry. A less likely Lib Dem it's hard to imagine, and he should never have been selected in the first place.
    Pretty disgraceful headline from the Tablet. More accurate would have been "Lib Dems deselect homophobe as election candidate".
    I thought that issues such as abortion, marriage etc were a matter of individual conscience, not party policy. Deselection seems a draconian measure in the circumstances.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20


    If they are in University owned registration the head of the household (i.e. the University) has a legal duty to register them.

    Equally a university probably has enough duty of care to auto-register 17 year olds (18 year olds are a slightly different matter).

    Either way registring them does not mean they vote - it just means they don't accidently miss out on their right to vote.

    It's almost like the sun doesn't want people voting.
    The Sun is designed to suppress working class votes. It is targeted at people who are disposed towards Labour on economic issues and its main message is that all politicians are crooks and Labour is only interested in 'luvvies'. It is the only paper for which a majority of its readers did not vote in 2017.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,738
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good morning

    Shambles is my conclusion of the debate last night.

    Leaders, shambles, Julie Etchingham, shambles, ITV, shambles, format, shambles, and Sky after, shambles and unwatchable

    I switched off the media, played classical music, had a cup of tea, and drifted off to sleep before rising at 4.30 am to take my daughter and son in law to Manchester Airport

    If last night is anything to go by I recommend switching off the media for all further debates for peace of mind

    I agree with the 40% who thought it was interesting, and the 50-65% who thought both candidates did well. I agree with others that more space to debate would have been good, but there is a limit to what ITV audiences are used to bothering with, so it's a balance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    The candidate opposed abortion and same sex marriage

    Same as 2 of the Tory defectors then.

    Liberal my arse
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,036
    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    bigjohnowls said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20

    Usual Sun bollocks
    Given you can register to vote from age 16 (but not actually vote until 18) what's the problem? Getting more people on the register is a good thing for future polls - I assume the councils will be competent enough to not issue polling cards/put on list of eligible voters for 12 December people who are not 18 at that date.

    Agree, complete non-story.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20


    If they are in University owned registration the head of the household (i.e. the University) has a legal duty to register them.

    Equally a university probably has enough duty of care to auto-register 17 year olds (18 year olds are a slightly different matter).

    Either way registring them does not mean they vote - it just means they don't accidently miss out on their right to vote.

    It's almost like the sun doesn't want people voting.
    I thought the head of the household rule was abolished years ago and now we had individual registration?

    Either way so long as there's no fraud I couldn't care less. Just hope this doesn't mess up anyone who had registered individually by e.g. changing their postal vote preference etc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,673
    edited November 2019
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    BladeRunner was set today. Amazing how Philip K Dick’s visions have endured so well. He captured the banality and emptiness of the future like no other science fiction writer.

    Effinger. Gibson.
    Is Effinger as good as Neuromancer trilogy Gibson, or only as good as the subsequent stuff?
    Effinger was very prolific but his best work is his Marîd Audran trilogy which is as thematically prophetic as Gibson's Sprawl trilogy but just slightly lacks Gibson's cuspidate prose.

    It's easier to desire and pursue the attention of tens of millions of total strangers than it is to accept the love and loyalty of the people closest to us

    Gibson could have been writing about Boris in Idoru.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,738
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    The candidate opposed abortion and same sex marriage

    And having been a labour MP had the voting record to show that he held those views the implication that he was deselected for being a Roman Catholic is somewhat misleading.
    At a personal level I was surprised by this - Rob was a very good, unaggressive colleague and I wasn't aware of his religious views - he never wore them on his sleeve. I didn't know he'd joined the LibDems.

    Abortion and same sex marriage are traditionally seen as personal choice issues, and although I disagree with him on both, I'm surprised it's led to disavowal by the party.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    edited November 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    10% max. IMO

    "We will put a bit of the money back we cut from schools budgets"

    Winner
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,738
    El_Capitano said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    Flello is a thug in hock to the haulage industry. A less likely Lib Dem it's hard to imagine, and he should never have been selected in the first place.
    Er, how do you define "thug"?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,279
    NickPalmer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good morning

    Shambles is my conclusion of the debate last night.

    Leaders, shambles, Julie Etchingham, shambles, ITV, shambles, format, shambles, and Sky after, shambles and unwatchable

    I switched off the media, played classical music, had a cup of tea, and drifted off to sleep before rising at 4.30 am to take my daughter and son in law to Manchester Airport

    If last night is anything to go by I recommend switching off the media for all further debates for peace of mind

    I agree with the 40% who thought it was interesting, and the 50-65% who thought both candidates did well. I agree with others that more space to debate would have been good, but there is a limit to what ITV audiences are used to bothering with, so it's a balance.
    The problem was the inability for either leader to make their case and time was wasted on opinions on Andrew and the Royal Family together with unnecessary trivia


  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    PeterC said:

    kamski said:

    El_Capitano said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    Flello is a thug in hock to the haulage industry. A less likely Lib Dem it's hard to imagine, and he should never have been selected in the first place.
    Pretty disgraceful headline from the Tablet. More accurate would have been "Lib Dems deselect homophobe as election candidate".
    I thought that issues such as abortion, marriage etc were a matter of individual conscience, not party policy. Deselection seems a draconian measure in the circumstances.
    Equal marriage has been Libdem policy since 2010.

    And if you want to deny some people human rights because of their sexual orientation than of course you shouldn't be a Libdem candidate.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,183
    Lord Ashcroft poll tables
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Election-Survey-1-Full-tables-1.xls
    contains great detail but non-standard approach attempting to gauge the strength of opinions and likelihood to vote for particular parties. I am struck by the almost identical likelihood profiles of ABC1 and C2DE voters regarding Conservative and Labour. Class on this categorization is not a thing at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,225
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1196916639469576192?s=20

    The candidate opposed abortion and same sex marriage

    And having been a labour MP had the voting record to show that he held those views the implication that he was deselected for being a Roman Catholic is somewhat misleading.
    He supported the Roman Catholic line on social issues, so on that basis he was
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
    Different forms? Each form in my school had a different patterned tie.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Daily Mail piling in on Airmiles Andy today. An indirect message to Megan and Harry on their legal case perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,225
    geoffw said:

    Lord Ashcroft poll tables
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Election-Survey-1-Full-tables-1.xls
    contains great detail but non-standard approach attempting to gauge the strength of opinions and likelihood to vote for particular parties. I am struck by the almost identical likelihood profiles of ABC1 and C2DE voters regarding Conservative and Labour. Class on this categorization is not a thing at all.

    The real class divide is now between LD and Brexit Party voters, not Tory and Labour voters, that is more an age divide
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Over in America I now see the Republicans are trashing two of the witnesses that they themselves asked to be called after they didn't give the answers they wanted.

    Yesterday was a very, very bad day for Trump and the Republicans.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20


    If they are in University owned registration the head of the household (i.e. the University) has a legal duty to register them.

    Equally a university probably has enough duty of care to auto-register 17 year olds (18 year olds are a slightly different matter).

    Either way registring them does not mean they vote - it just means they don't accidently miss out on their right to vote.

    It's almost like the sun doesn't want people voting.
    They've admitted they made a mistake, but obviously you know better, so clearly they didn't.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,019
    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    Core vote strategy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,082
    I hadn't realised until seeing the BBC's "Fact Check" that Johnson didn't realise the DUP were against his deal.

    I think this finally solves the age-old riddle about whether he is really a fool, or just a wise man pretending to be a fool.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,995
    tlg86 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    Core vote strategy.
    Sorry libdemmers but Swinson really is coming across as insufferably irritating so far in this campaign.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    tlg86 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    Core vote strategy.
    Indeed, but not sure the whole' look how cosmopolitan and sophisticated and enlightened I am with my breakfast' path is too fruitful to the mainstream.

    she needs a bacon buttie or two.. (in political terms).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,517
    LDs, much bertter at barcharts than Photoshop (or keeping up with what's current in twitter memology).

    https://twitter.com/naebD/status/1196924235958161413?s=20
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,517
    Alistair said:

    Over in America I now see the Republicans are trashing two of the witnesses that they themselves asked to be called after they didn't give the answers they wanted.

    Yesterday was a very, very bad day for Trump and the Republicans.

    https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1196996976950333446?s=20
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,203
    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    European coffee plantations? That's a new one on me.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    " thought that Johnson’s big mistake was to repeatedly talk over the moderator and never stick to the time limits. "

    He pulled the same trick in his speech on Monday to the CBI, where the head honcho had to tell him to shut up.

    Johnson's progress round the country in this election seems an object lesson in pissing the electorate off (see almost any trip to a hospital, for example)

    Not denying that Corbyn is doing badly - but that's his policies people are rejecting. Johnson is piling up totally pointless examples of stupidly bad manners.
    They'll all come to roost eventually.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,830
    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20


    If they are in University owned registration the head of the household (i.e. the University) has a legal duty to register them.

    Equally a university probably has enough duty of care to auto-register 17 year olds (18 year olds are a slightly different matter).

    Either way registring them does not mean they vote - it just means they don't accidently miss out on their right to vote.

    It's almost like the sun doesn't want people voting.
    They've admitted they made a mistake, but obviously you know better, so clearly they didn't.
    Having read the article it seems the council automatically registered them - I think it comes down to head of household rules - I know were I not to list my wife and children on the form I was personally subject to a fine.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Utterly off-topic, but this is one of the finest game reviews I've ever read. Quietly savage.

    https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2019/11/18/garfield-kart-furious-racing-review/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    Flanner said:

    " thought that Johnson’s big mistake was to repeatedly talk over the moderator and never stick to the time limits. "

    He pulled the same trick in his speech on Monday to the CBI, where the head honcho had to tell him to shut up.

    Johnson's progress round the country in this election seems an object lesson in pissing the electorate off (see almost any trip to a hospital, for example)

    Not denying that Corbyn is doing badly - but that's his policies people are rejecting. Johnson is piling up totally pointless examples of stupidly bad manners.
    They'll all come to roost eventually.

    Having interacted with a lot of their alumni in a range of environments I have come to the conclusion that talking over other people is the main skill learned at elite private schools.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
    The different ties may mean different houses, years or prefectorial status.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    Over in America I now see the Republicans are trashing two of the witnesses that they themselves asked to be called after they didn't give the answers they wanted.

    Yesterday was a very, very bad day for Trump and the Republicans.

    https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1196996976950333446?s=20
    But will it matter? What can Trump do to damage his core vote that will change things? Other than being caught defecating on The Flag?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
    The different ties may mean different houses, years or prefectorial status.
    Why does only Swinson get the oversized full goggles, rather than safety specs the others have?

    Also, Davey(?) and the other guy having a cavaliar attitude to safety, or the woman in the back row being over-careful wearing eye protection?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Selebian said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197058280704684034?s=20

    Usual Sun bollocks
    Given you can register to vote from age 16 (but not actually vote until 18) what's the problem? Getting more people on the register is a good thing for future polls - I assume the councils will be competent enough to not issue polling cards/put on list of eligible voters for 12 December people who are not 18 at that date.

    Agree, complete non-story.
    The problem is it’s against the law

    But, of course, Twitter account names generate more outrage
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,734
    SandyRentool said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    European coffee plantations? That's a new one on me.
    There are many things the continentals might justifiably be said to do well. Breakfast is not one of them.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    Casino_Royale said:

    I wonder if the risk to the Tories over the manifesto is now the other way.

    If they’re not careful they’ll make it so short, meaningless and anodyne it will raise questions about their real vision and programme for Government.

    They should learn from GE2017 but also not overreact.

    There was something on radio this morning about a new Tory policy for victim/media (essentially public?) access to parole board hearings. This is presumably in response to the upset caused by the Worboys decision.

    You could argue it was an example of a government in command of the detail of governance, or flailing around for something to do in the absence of a vision for the future.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,517
    Anorak said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    Over in America I now see the Republicans are trashing two of the witnesses that they themselves asked to be called after they didn't give the answers they wanted.

    Yesterday was a very, very bad day for Trump and the Republicans.

    https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1196996976950333446?s=20
    But will it matter? What can Trump do to damage his core vote that will change things? Other than being caught defecating on The Flag?
    And even then...
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,641
    Even Obama ain't lefty enough for the Guardian now...
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/20/thanks-obama-but-these-patronising-lectures-are-getting-old
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I think the LDs would have been best served with a bruiser as a leader attacking both Labour and Tories as unfit to govern. To go beyond gaining a few extra seats they need the threat of Corbyn to recede as many will only vote Tory to stop him. Unfortunately I suspect that too many of their activists still have an outmoded "we are part radical anti-tories and therefore political cousins with Labour" mindset. Labour has changed fundamentally and they have not reacted! I fear they have missed their chance. Until there is a reasonable alternative to the Tories we are in a very bad place.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,548
    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good morning

    Shambles is my conclusion of the debate last night.

    Leaders, shambles, Julie Etchingham, shambles, ITV, shambles, format, shambles, and Sky after, shambles and unwatchable

    I switched off the media, played classical music, had a cup of tea, and drifted off to sleep before rising at 4.30 am to take my daughter and son in law to Manchester Airport

    If last night is anything to go by I recommend switching off the media for all further debates for peace of mind

    I recommend Porterhouse Blue on youtube. I watched episode 1 last night after 5 minutes of sheer boredom with the debate. I later took the view that the scene where the college welcomes the new master in a bizarre latin ceremony probably made more sense than anything offered by Porky or Albert (although, no doubt, the latin would have made Porky feel at home). I believe episode 2 is where the college is blown up by inflated condoms ...... which would seem even more like home to Porky.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,713
    Apparently the debate was watched by 6.7 million and the leaders interviews by 2.46 million .

    I think that’s pretty good .
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,036
    Selebian said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
    The different ties may mean different houses, years or prefectorial status.
    Why does only Swinson get the oversized full goggles, rather than safety specs the others have?

    Also, Davey(?) and the other guy having a cavaliar attitude to safety, or the woman in the back row being over-careful wearing eye protection?
    I once drove friends to distraction when they were choosing a school, by pointing out the absurd safety practices on view. Normally because the photographer had got pupils togged up for nothing more dangerous than breathing. There was one where a girl was wearing lab coat, goggles and gloves, but was resting her bare arm on the bench. I suppose it is better than never taking precautions but they end up thinking a lab coat is a magic talisman rather than being aware of any real hazards.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    I watched Frankenstein Created Woman and the Wales match instead. Guess I missed nothing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,990
    nunu2 said:

    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1

    May came across as a bossy middle class woman.

    The type of person who many working class people have been a victim of.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Given that nothing happened, we have to take that as a wasted opportunity don't we?
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Cookie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    European coffee plantations? That's a new one on me.
    There are many things the continentals might justifiably be said to do well. Breakfast is not one of them.
    Depends where you get it. The Bayerischer Hof in Munich does the best breakfast buffet I have ever found anywhere.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    tlg86 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    Core vote strategy.
    This could be a sign that the Lib Dems think they are making more ground in Labour areas than Tory areas. After all if there is no danger of the Tories winning the seat then there is no harm in remain voters swapping Red for Yellow.

    Meanwhile the middle class Southern vote and it's fear of Corbyn PM means the Tories are proving very hard to unseat.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Selebian said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
    The different ties may mean different houses, years or prefectorial status.
    Why does only Swinson get the oversized full goggles, rather than safety specs the others have?

    Also, Davey(?) and the other guy having a cavaliar attitude to safety, or the woman in the back row being over-careful wearing eye protection?
    Probably the safety specs are their own (and possibly even prescription - mine were many years ago) whilst the goggles are generic and kept as spares for visitors.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Anorak said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    Over in America I now see the Republicans are trashing two of the witnesses that they themselves asked to be called after they didn't give the answers they wanted.

    Yesterday was a very, very bad day for Trump and the Republicans.

    https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1196996976950333446?s=20
    But will it matter? What can Trump do to damage his core vote that will change things? Other than being caught defecating on The Flag?
    No, that won't do it. He has already crapped all over the country.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    Banterman said:

    Daily Mail piling in on Airmiles Andy today. An indirect message to Megan and Harry on their legal case perhaps?

    Whoever has been advising the minor royals have screwed up quite, err, royally in the past couple of months.
    Airmiles is probably going to end up with the Edward VIII treatment, and the Sussexes need to work out what is their mission in life - suing a newspaper isn't the way to go about it, just makes it more likely that all the non-reported stories start to come out of the woodwork.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,219
    another_richard said:

    nunu2 said:

    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1

    May came across as a bossy middle class woman.

    The type of person who many working class people have been a victim of.
    Maggie was the ultimate in bossy middle-class woman, and she didn't do too badly with that demographic.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    NorthofStoke said:

    I think the LDs would have been best served with a bruiser as a leader attacking both Labour and Tories as unfit to govern. To go beyond gaining a few extra seats they need the threat of Corbyn to recede as many will only vote Tory to stop him. Unfortunately I suspect that too many of their activists still have an outmoded "we are part radical anti-tories and therefore political cousins with Labour" mindset. Labour has changed fundamentally and they have not reacted! I fear they have missed their chance. Until there is a reasonable alternative to the Tories we are in a very bad place.

    The only upside I can see of a Johnson majority would be the defenestration of Corbyn and Labour moving back to the centre, forcing a similar response from the party that was once known as Conservative.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    alb1on said:

    Selebian said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    If this is the best the LDs can do in terms of a narrative changer then the election doesn’t look that great for them:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50480498

    It looks like Jo Swinson is doing the lighted splint in oxygen or hydrogen experiment, and thus setting out to save the planet. More importantly, why do the two girls at the front have differently-patterned ties?
    The different ties may mean different houses, years or prefectorial status.
    Why does only Swinson get the oversized full goggles, rather than safety specs the others have?

    Also, Davey(?) and the other guy having a cavaliar attitude to safety, or the woman in the back row being over-careful wearing eye protection?
    Probably the safety specs are their own (and possibly even prescription - mine were many years ago) whilst the goggles are generic and kept as spares for visitors.
    I think @DecrepiterJohnL needs some of those prescription safety specs. That's a pipette, not a splint.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,990
    Stark_Dawning said:

    another_richard said:

    nunu2 said:

    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1

    May came across as a bossy middle class woman.

    The type of person who many working class people have been a victim of.
    Maggie was the ultimate in bossy middle-class woman, and she didn't do too badly with that demographic.
    Maggie helped the working class buy their homes and bossed posh blokes and foreigners around.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,731
    The need for caffeine during impeachment hearings....
    https://twitter.com/colinjones/status/1196843762523262977
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Stark_Dawning said:

    another_richard said:

    nunu2 said:

    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1

    May came across as a bossy middle class woman.

    The type of person who many working class people have been a victim of.
    Maggie was the ultimate in bossy middle-class woman, and she didn't do too badly with that demographic.
    Not the ultimate. That honour belongs to Flick Drummond, the former Portsmouth Conservative MP and now PPC for Meon Valley. As anyone will tell you who lived in Winchester in the 90s (where Drummond held court), the Queen avoided the area because she did not want to have to curtsey to Drummond.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,783
    Mr. Sandpit, that's all true, but it seems the Cambridges are being rather more sure-footed.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Sandpit said:

    Banterman said:

    Daily Mail piling in on Airmiles Andy today. An indirect message to Megan and Harry on their legal case perhaps?

    Whoever has been advising the minor royals have screwed up quite, err, royally in the past couple of months.
    Airmiles is probably going to end up with the Edward VIII treatment, and the Sussexes need to work out what is their mission in life - suing a newspaper isn't the way to go about it, just makes it more likely that all the non-reported stories start to come out of the woodwork.
    And Megan is likely to have some interesting moments in her past having been around Hollywood for many years.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    another_richard said:

    nunu2 said:

    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1

    May came across as a bossy middle class woman.

    The type of person who many working class people have been a victim of.
    I suspect many working class people (particularly women) have been the victims of many bossy/bullying working class men.

    I guess the one thing the so-called "working-class" can say of prep-school and grammar school educated Mr. Corbyn is he definitely ain't one of them!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,731
    alb1on said:

    Anorak said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    Over in America I now see the Republicans are trashing two of the witnesses that they themselves asked to be called after they didn't give the answers they wanted.

    Yesterday was a very, very bad day for Trump and the Republicans.

    https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1196996976950333446?s=20
    But will it matter? What can Trump do to damage his core vote that will change things? Other than being caught defecating on The Flag?
    No, that won't do it. He has already crapped all over the country.
    The Republican party is the party of Trump now, and nothing he might do will change that.
    Other than get roundly defeated next year.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    Banterman said:

    Daily Mail piling in on Airmiles Andy today. An indirect message to Megan and Harry on their legal case perhaps?

    Whoever has been advising the minor royals have screwed up quite, err, royally in the past couple of months.
    Airmiles is probably going to end up with the Edward VIII treatment, and the Sussexes need to work out what is their mission in life - suing a newspaper isn't the way to go about it, just makes it more likely that all the non-reported stories start to come out of the woodwork.
    Seems tough on the Bahamas.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Even Obama ain't lefty enough for the Guardian now...
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/20/thanks-obama-but-these-patronising-lectures-are-getting-old

    I mean, was he ever a lefty? I never considered him particularly left, but he wasn't McCain or Romney, so he was the best on offer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    Banterman said:

    Sandpit said:

    Banterman said:

    Daily Mail piling in on Airmiles Andy today. An indirect message to Megan and Harry on their legal case perhaps?

    Whoever has been advising the minor royals have screwed up quite, err, royally in the past couple of months.
    Airmiles is probably going to end up with the Edward VIII treatment, and the Sussexes need to work out what is their mission in life - suing a newspaper isn't the way to go about it, just makes it more likely that all the non-reported stories start to come out of the woodwork.
    And Megan is likely to have some interesting moments in her past having been around Hollywood for many years.
    I've heard several older Hollywood stories about her, and a couple more recent ones of a different nature. I won't get Mike in trouble by saying any more than that.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    148grss said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Even Obama ain't lefty enough for the Guardian now...
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/20/thanks-obama-but-these-patronising-lectures-are-getting-old

    I mean, was he ever a lefty? I never considered him particularly left, but he wasn't McCain or Romney, so he was the best on offer.
    He was very successful and intelligent, so definitely not a lefty. Probably a sensible centrist, but def not a lefty.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 694
    Brom said:

    tlg86 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    Core vote strategy.
    This could be a sign that the Lib Dems think they are making more ground in Labour areas than Tory areas. After all if there is no danger of the Tories winning the seat then there is no harm in remain voters swapping Red for Yellow.

    Meanwhile the middle class Southern vote and it's fear of Corbyn PM means the Tories are proving very hard to unseat.
    The Lib Dem core vote strategy may not be stupid. Remember the 6 million petition for revoke. They will not win the election with it but can build a large base that they can then use as a springboard. If Brexit is a failure this may lead them to become the Government.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Theuniondivvie said:

    LDs, much bertter at barcharts than Photoshop (or keeping up with what's current in twitter memology).

    https://twitter.com/naebD/status/1196924235958161413?s=20

    Why did they make her head so freakishly large?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,036
    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Not for Ed Miliband it wasn't.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,019
    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Ed Miliband says hello.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Assuming she could eat the bacon bap without having about a thousand photos of her taken and then the very worst one selected and used relentlessly to pretend she doesn't know how to eat.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Its 2019 does anyone still drink that tepid brown water abomination they call tea?

    My generation and those that the LDs are targetting are far more likely to drink coffee.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Its 2019 does anyone still drink that tepid brown water abomination they call tea?

    My generation and those that the LDs are targetting are far more likely to drink coffee.
    Never touch the stuff. Tea all the way.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Assuming she could eat the bacon bap without having about a thousand photos of her taken and then the very worst one selected and used relentlessly to pretend she doesn't know how to eat.
    Didn't she already have an awkward marshmallow moment a couple of weeks ago?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,105
    nunu2 said:

    It's kind of counterintuitive but the white working classes kind of seem to warm to Boris in a way they didn"t for May?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1197093476061646849/photo/1

    ...only because of Brexit...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    https://twitter.com/josie1964/status/1196409656522018818

    :smiley:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,487
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Its 2019 does anyone still drink that tepid brown water abomination they call tea?

    My generation and those that the LDs are targetting are far more likely to drink coffee.
    Nah, tea is still hugely popular. And rightly so. Far more refreshing than the brown sludge served in any coffee chain.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    TrèsDifficile said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Banterman said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Assuming she could eat the bacon bap without having about a thousand photos of her taken and then the very worst one selected and used relentlessly to pretend she doesn't know how to eat.
    Didn't she already have an awkward marshmallow moment a couple of weeks ago?
    Is that a euphemism?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    Fenster said:

    https://twitter.com/josie1964/status/1196409656522018818

    :smiley:

    Ha ha brilliant.
This discussion has been closed.

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