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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Two interesting comments from Nicola Sturgeon (from the Guardian live blog):

    Sturgeon says it was not inevitable that Brexit had to be this chaotic.

    She says, if Scotland were to vote for independence, the process of separating from England would not have to be like Brexit.


    On the first: No, darling, it didn't, and if your MPs had voted for the orderly version available under Theresa May then it wouldn't have been.

    On the second: She's not stupid, she can see the risk of Scottish voters realising that Scottish independence would be even messier than Brexit.

    No it would be worse as Scotland sends more exports to England than the UK does to the EU
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    This is where I caution Tories and the big poll leads. If they are to be believed places like Stoke are in play, but really, like really...I just don't see it. Yes they voted Leave, yes they have been failed by decades of Labour run councils, but the closure of the mines and the pottery works still scar the place and to vote Tory is just a massive massive leap for many...much much bigger than sticking two fingers up at the establishment over Brexit.
    Stoke already has a Tory MP and 18 Tory councillors
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Why would a political party do that - if you are clever enough to fake such a video you can release it without attaching your name to it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    Hmm... perhaps we could erect a border around Stoke and let them Brexit and issue their own passports? ;)

    A local said: "Voting Brexit was the first time they ‘won’ in their lives… They may not know what it means but they know they were on the winning side."

    I suspect that whether Brexit happens or not, they will continue to be neglected for exactly the same reasons they were neglected before.
    That sense of 'we won' is what will lead many to vote Tory or BXP as the only options to actually see through that 'win' and not ignore it, and them.
    Basically this is 2017 with a bit more LD instead of Lab but, crucially, a bucket load of former Lab and usual non voters voting for Brexit. It will completely flood the usual mood music and results
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Rises in wages ahead of inflation since brexit have been largely completely ignored by the commentariat.

    Is it just possible they have been noticed just a teansy little bit in places like Stoke?
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    This is where I caution Tories and the big poll leads. If they are to be believed places like Stoke are in play, but really, like really...I just don't see it. Yes they voted Leave, yes they have been failed by decades of Labour run councils, but the closure of the mines and the pottery works still scar the place and to vote Tory is just a massive massive leap for many...much much bigger than sticking two fingers up at the establishment over Brexit.
    Stoke already has a Tory MP and 18 Tory councillors
    I meant the whole of Stoke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited November 2019
    f
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    “He will deliver Brexit” = all the important issues are kicked into an alarmingly short transition period at the end of which we will relive this year as Groundhog Day;

    “A points system” = sounds good until you ask Tories what it means in practice; they can’t answer but it is likely to mean that things continue very much as they are;

    “Raise the minimum wage” = let’s wait and see. Within recent memory Tories argued that the minimum wage would lead to all sorts of so far unseen economic catastrophes.
  • HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    Not good.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    Hmm... perhaps we could erect a border around Stoke and let them Brexit and issue their own passports? ;)

    A local said: "Voting Brexit was the first time they ‘won’ in their lives… They may not know what it means but they know they were on the winning side."

    I suspect that whether Brexit happens or not, they will continue to be neglected for exactly the same reasons they were neglected before.
    I'd be loathe to lose a darting super power like Stoke. Phil the P, Adrian Jackpot, its too big a wrench.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
  • eristdoof said:

    Banterman said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197086429395988482

    Not sure this is a good line of campaigning..

    A mug of tea and a bacon bap would be more of a vote winner.
    Its 2019 does anyone still drink that tepid brown water abomination they call tea?

    My generation and those that the LDs are targetting are far more likely to drink coffee.
    Nah, tea is still hugely popular. And rightly so. Far more refreshing than the brown sludge served in any coffee chain.
    I much prefer tea to coffee when I have control of the production process, but paying someone to make tea for you is increasingly risky.
    Only me can make tea as I like it. A single estate darjeeling brewed for exactly four minutes in a cup that has been WARMED before the water is put in. No milk of course
    Sounds great.
    I'm sure though many English would dispute that this is "proper tea".

    Which reminds me of my favourite anarchist joke!

    Google obliges as always:

    https://www.indy100.com/article/tea-or-coffee-a-map-of-the-world-according-to-who-prefers-which-of-each-drink--Wkg7X39yAfZ

    Though I do remember reading that coffee now outsold tea in Britain - possibly by price or weight or some other non-intuitive measure. Certainly coffee shops vastly outnumber teashops now, which is odd if people prefer tea at home.
    Coffee is the devil's brew - it produces terrible mood swings, leads to physical dependency, is dehydrating and gives you bad breath. Its spread is slowly killing off the proper serving of tea - now made with lukewarm water from a coffee machine which has cooled even more by the time you manage to get the bag in - because they can't even put the fucking bag in for you! Or at a conference where the hot water urn previously had coffee in it and your tea has a stale coffee taste - a particularly common problem in the US, home of all awful cultural trends that eventually assail us too. Coffee is JUST WRONG!
    It is a standard trope on American television that coffee is so powerful a stimulant as to induce tremors, and is dangerous to children. American electricity is too weak and feeble to boil a kettle, so they can't make tea which requires boiling water, whereas merely hot will do for coffee. They should get Elon Musk to look into the problem.
    You shouldn't make coffee with hot water. You need to use steam for a proper brew.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems.
    "Winning" a debate (for either party) is not equal to: I'll vote for them
  • On the LD manifesto:

    How does one administer a “frequent flier tax”? Does one have to put in their NI details every time they book a flight?
  • HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems.
    "Winning" a debate (for either party) is not equal to: I'll vote for them
    I think this is a very fair point.

    However, I am expecting some brown trouser moments in the next two weeks, especially if the Lib Dems remain invisible.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited November 2019

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    Hmm... perhaps we could erect a border around Stoke and let them Brexit and issue their own passports? ;)

    A local said: "Voting Brexit was the first time they ‘won’ in their lives… They may not know what it means but they know they were on the winning side."

    I suspect that whether Brexit happens or not, they will continue to be neglected for exactly the same reasons they were neglected before.
    That sense of 'we won' is what will lead many to vote Tory or BXP as the only options to actually see through that 'win' and not ignore it, and them.
    Basically this is 2017 with a bit more LD instead of Lab but, crucially, a bucket load of former Lab and usual non voters voting for Brexit. It will completely flood the usual mood music and results
    Given that Leavers frequently warn us about backlash and violence if we fail to Brexit, I wonder what the backlash will be like when we DO Brexit and nothing improves?

    All this high-falutin talk of sovereignty will go out the window if jobs and economy go south and it will not even matter if Brexit is the cause. If the expected, overdue recession comes in post-Brexit, the two will be linked in people's minds.

    As I keep saying on here - perception is everything. Most people lack time for the facts.
  • Dawn Butler has just been Ferrari'ed....

    Dawn Butler: “Now I can tell you that in 2007 I had around 3,000 or so rough sleepers in Brent.”

    Nick Ferrari: “But what I find incredible is, Dawn Butler you say 3,000 people sleep rough in Brent, well the last figures that we have for 2017, is that there were 4,751 people sleeping rough in the whole of England… of whom 3,000 were in Brent? Are you sure you have got your figures right.”

    Dawn Butler: No, no I said in 2006 or 7 there was around that figure… I know when we get to talk about numbers it is quite exciting for you, and… and you’re very good at that so I can…

    Apparently the official number for Brent is 248.

    Confusing homelessness and rough sleeping I think.
  • On the LD manifesto:

    How does one administer a “frequent flier tax”? Does one have to put in their NI details every time they book a flight?

    Does the government not already collect all passenger info for security purposes?
  • IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, in a victory for unblemished nostalgia - the rerelease of a 15 year old game has won the golden joystick award.

    PC Game of the Year - World of Warcraft Classic

    For any PB boardgamers, if you think you are up to one of the best games on the market right now, I’d recommend Great Western Trail (up to 4 players). Or this year’s game of the year, Wingspan, about the unlikely boardgaming subject of birds (up to 5 players).
    Aargh, wingspan is out-of-stock. Looks good.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    LDs gunning for the stoner vote
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    The best anti-Tory outcome is that in Labour held seats (except Don Valley), non-Tories Vote Labour and in pretty much every other seat they vote for the Remain Alliance LibDem/Green/PC.
  • LDs gunning for the stoner vote

    I fully expect Labour will announce a halfway house fudge on this. Medical Cannabis from state owned dispensaries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    Not good.
    No perfectly fine, Boris consolidates his core and as there was no LD there Corbyn just got LDs, as soon as Swinson is in the next debate LDs will switch to her
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    This is where I caution Tories and the big poll leads. If they are to be believed places like Stoke are in play, but really, like really...I just don't see it. Yes they voted Leave, yes they have been failed by decades of Labour run councils, but the closure of the mines and the pottery works still scar the place and to vote Tory is just a massive massive leap for many...much much bigger than sticking two fingers up at the establishment over Brexit.
    Stoke already has a Tory MP and 18 Tory councillors
    I meant the whole of Stoke.
    Those 18 Tory councillors are found across Stoke
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Rises in wages ahead of inflation since brexit have been largely completely ignored by the commentariat.

    Is it just possible they have been noticed just a teansy little bit in places like Stoke?
    It will
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Are you smoking what we're smoking?

    There will also be a levy on the sale of cannabis to over-18s, with the money raised going to fund community policing and youth services.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50486538
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, in a victory for unblemished nostalgia - the rerelease of a 15 year old game has won the golden joystick award.

    PC Game of the Year - World of Warcraft Classic

    For any PB boardgamers, if you think you are up to one of the best games on the market right now, I’d recommend Great Western Trail (up to 4 players). Or this year’s game of the year, Wingspan, about the unlikely boardgaming subject of birds (up to 5 players).
    Wingspan is, indeed, excellent. I would also recommend Tapestry and Ragusa for those of a ludological bent.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic, in a victory for unblemished nostalgia - the rerelease of a 15 year old game has won the golden joystick award.

    PC Game of the Year - World of Warcraft Classic

    For any PB boardgamers, if you think you are up to one of the best games on the market right now, I’d recommend Great Western Trail (up to 4 players). Or this year’s game of the year, Wingspan, about the unlikely boardgaming subject of birds (up to 5 players).
    Aargh, wingspan is out-of-stock. Looks good.
    Try theworks.com shop there via Quidco and you get 17% cash back
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    Hmm... perhaps we could erect a border around Stoke and let them Brexit and issue their own passports? ;)

    A local said: "Voting Brexit was the first time they ‘won’ in their lives… They may not know what it means but they know they were on the winning side."

    I suspect that whether Brexit happens or not, they will continue to be neglected for exactly the same reasons they were neglected before.
    That sense of 'we won' is what will lead many to vote Tory or BXP as the only options to actually see through that 'win' and not ignore it, and them.
    Basically this is 2017 with a bit more LD instead of Lab but, crucially, a bucket load of former Lab and usual non voters voting for Brexit. It will completely flood the usual mood music and results
    Given that Leavers frequently warn us about backlash and violence if we fail to Brexit, I wonder what the backlash will be like when we DO Brexit and nothing improves?

    All this high-falutin talk of sovereignty will go out the window if jobs and economy go south and it will not even matter if Brexit is the cause. If the expected, overdue recession comes in post-Brexit, the two will be linked in people's minds.

    As I keep saying on here - perception is everything. Most people lack time for the facts.
    As I posted below, its not beyond the bounds of possibility brexit has already worked for some.

    Wages have been rising and inflation falling for a while now. We can have a debate about why that is, but as you said yourself, perception is everything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    IanB2 said:

    f

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    “He will deliver Brexit” = all the important issues are kicked into an alarmingly short transition period at the end of which we will relive this year as Groundhog Day;

    “A points system” = sounds good until you ask Tories what it means in practice; they can’t answer but it is likely to mean that things continue very much as they are;

    “Raise the minimum wage” = let’s wait and see. Within recent memory Tories argued that the minimum wage would lead to all sorts of so far unseen economic catastrophes.
    Stoke voters do not want the transition period extended, they want to end free movement.

    A points system by definition ends free movement
  • On the LD manifesto:

    How does one administer a “frequent flier tax”? Does one have to put in their NI details every time they book a flight?

    Does the government not already collect all passenger info for security purposes?
    Collecting API is presumably different to having to calculate how many flights you’ve been on in a year though - would this be calculated at time of booking and if so how the hell are you going to interface this with airline booking platforms? Or are you going to get a nice little letter from the taxman at year end? What if your company pays - do you get hit with a bigger holiday bill because your company sent you to Germany for a conference in the same year, say? Is that fair? How many flights are we talking to tip you onto the tax list?

    It just strikes me as being one of those ideas that sounds very clever but actually would be nightmarish to administer and operate fairly.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Labour have no chance of a majority and need everything to go right to be the biggest party . But even if they’re not the biggest party they have others they can work with . The Tories have zero allies and only a majority will do .

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.
  • The other thing with the Tory twitter stuff, it means another day not focusing on just how unaffordable / unrealistic / down right dangerous Marxist McDonnell's plans are.

    It was only a couple of days ago he was talking about delisting companies, he is happy to put 200 ISPS out of business, tank BT stock....all effecting everybody with a pension.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Not really.

    It will see the Tories hold more seats from the LDs.


    Swinson is in the next debate so the LD vote will then go to her after not Corbyn
  • eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    “They tell me that I’m in the cultural quarter of The Potteries. The bloody cultural quarter. Where do they think we are, bloody France? If I want to put tables outside and be continental, I have to pay bloody council £500 a year or summat. £500 a year? Might be worth it if we had summer all year but in Hanley it lasts only three weeks at most…”

    genuine chuckle at that

    great read cheers
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited November 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    Are you smoking what we're smoking?

    There will also be a levy on the sale of cannabis to over-18s, with the money raised going to fund community policing and youth services.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50486538

    I mean, current evidence suggests weed is no more dangerous than booze or tobacco or sugar. Why not legalise and tax it? Less crime, more revenue, less over policing of poor people and young men of colour. Not to mention people who are high are more laid back than most drunks. In Colorado the revenue has been great, and due to the federal laws preventing banks taking drug money, all taxes get paid in cash so the local government can't sit on it so they reinvest it in local infrastructure. All good.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Fair enough. Now timeline it. It is currently 2019. I assume Boris will win a workable majority and be in office until 2024. When may we expect this points system please?

    And can you guarantee there will be no reference to nationality (or supranational entity, eg EU or commonwealth)?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    The other thing with the Tory twitter stuff, it means another day not focusing on just how unaffordable / unrealistic / down right dangerous Marxist McDonnell's plans are.

    It was only a couple of days ago he was talking about delisting companies, he is happy to put 200 ISPS out of business, tank BT stock....all effecting everybody with a pension.

    All covered on the news but this is the BBC you are talking about, hardly pro Tory.

    The Tories will hit Labour again after their manifesto launch
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Great policy on cannabis from the Lib Dems .

    About time too. Current drugs laws aren’t fit for purpose .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    He has changed his story about that song more times than I have been delivered Lib Dem propaganda.

    At one point he claimed it was written by Guy Chambers, but it was written with a guy called Ray Heffernan and he bought Ray out of the right to it. He has claimed it is for everybody, or for his aunt and uncle, etc.
  • In the interests of historical accuracy, I consulted Ian Mortimer's The Time Traveller's Guide to Restoration Britain, which I can heartily recommend, and found that the first coffee house here opened in 1650, in Oxford. By the late 1650s, coffee houses near the Royal Exchange start offering Chinese tea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance of a majority and need everything to go right to be the biggest party . But even if they’re not the biggest party they have others they can work with . The Tories have zero allies and only a majority will do .

    The Brexit Party if they win an MP would work with the Tories, as might the DUP or UUP or even the Alliance Party, though the former prefer No Deal and the latter the Deal.

    The LDs will refuse to work with Corbyn
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Here is a thought: hung parliament is the result, hegotiatiuons begin and in the end only way out is for another person to be PM. That might be a relief to the majority of the electorate.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    HYUFD said:

    Two interesting comments from Nicola Sturgeon (from the Guardian live blog):

    Sturgeon says it was not inevitable that Brexit had to be this chaotic.

    She says, if Scotland were to vote for independence, the process of separating from England would not have to be like Brexit.


    On the first: No, darling, it didn't, and if your MPs had voted for the orderly version available under Theresa May then it wouldn't have been.

    On the second: She's not stupid, she can see the risk of Scottish voters realising that Scottish independence would be even messier than Brexit.

    No it would be worse as Scotland sends more exports to England than the UK does to the EU
    On the other hand, as more of Scotland's physical exports (by value) go to the EU than the rest of the UK, staying in the EU CU/SM would be making the best of a bad situation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
    There is a Genesis song from the 80s also called "Mama".

    Pause.

    Damn, I am a sad (rude word)... :(
  • rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
  • eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/

    Hmm... perhaps we could erect a border around Stoke and let them Brexit and issue their own passports? ;)

    A local said: "Voting Brexit was the first time they ‘won’ in their lives… They may not know what it means but they know they were on the winning side."

    I suspect that whether Brexit happens or not, they will continue to be neglected for exactly the same reasons they were neglected before.
    That sense of 'we won' is what will lead many to vote Tory or BXP as the only options to actually see through that 'win' and not ignore it, and them.
    Basically this is 2017 with a bit more LD instead of Lab but, crucially, a bucket load of former Lab and usual non voters voting for Brexit. It will completely flood the usual mood music and results
    Given that Leavers frequently warn us about backlash and violence if we fail to Brexit, I wonder what the backlash will be like when we DO Brexit and nothing improves?

    All this high-falutin talk of sovereignty will go out the window if jobs and economy go south and it will not even matter if Brexit is the cause. If the expected, overdue recession comes in post-Brexit, the two will be linked in people's minds.

    As I keep saying on here - perception is everything. Most people lack time for the facts.
    Remainers are the ones more likely to predict violence, whether or not we leave.

    If we leave the EU
    Protests in which members of the public are badly injured
    Remainers - Likely 70 Not likely 31
    Leavers - Likely 32 Not likely 69
    Violence directed towards Members of Parliament
    Remainers - Likely 69 Not likely 32
    Leavers - Likely 35 Not likely 66

    If we don't leave the EU
    Protests in which members of the public are badly injured
    Remainers - Likely 54 Not likely 46
    Leavers - Likely 54 Not likely 46
    Violence directed towards Members of Parliament
    Remainers - Likely 61 Not likely 39
    Leavers - Likely 54 Not likely 46

    https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/1708631/Copy-of-England-16-Oct-AH.pdf
  • rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
    Political debate is not improved by fanning the flames of racism with fake news.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Fair enough. Now timeline it. It is currently 2019. I assume Boris will win a workable majority and be in office until 2024. When may we expect this points system please?

    And can you guarantee there will be no reference to nationality (or supranational entity, eg EU or commonwealth)?
    The transition period and free movement ends December 2020 so by 2021
  • kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    A friend rather ruined that song for me with his alternative lyrics that very definitely would not have been about his mother.

    As for what he did to Cher's Believe, you really wouldn't like to know.
  • viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
    There is a Genesis song from the 80s also called "Mama".

    Pause.

    Damn, I am a sad (rude word)... :(
    Freddie Mercury...

    "Mama, just killed a man
    Put a gun against his head
    Pulled my trigger, now he's dead

    Mama, life had just begun
    But now I've gone and thrown it all away

    Mama, ooh
    Didn't mean to make you cry
    If I'm not back again this time tomorrow
    Carry on, carry on
    As if nothing really matters"
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019
    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    Looks like they're attacking the soft-left Labour flank.
  • Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    I have to say, the cannabis policy makes perfect sense for Labour, who want to get as many of the yuff down the polling station.

    But Lib Dems less so. They are trying to pitch to middle class parents, many of which are obviously very concerned about drugs messing up their kids futures.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Fair enough. Now timeline it. It is currently 2019. I assume Boris will win a workable majority and be in office until 2024. When may we expect this points system please?

    And can you guarantee there will be no reference to nationality (or supranational entity, eg EU or commonwealth)?
    The transition period and free movement ends December 2020 so by 2021
    A direct answer. Thank you.
  • TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
    Mamma mia let me go
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    I have to say, the cannabis policy makes perfect sense for Labour, who want to get as many of the yuff down the polling station.

    But Lib Dems less so. They are trying to pitch to middle class parents, many of which are obviously very concerned about drugs messing up their kids futures.
    Frquent flyer tax? hmmmnnn...
  • There is no mistaking the Liberal Democrats' central appeal to voters. The words "STOP BREXIT" appear in large capital letters on the front of the manifesto.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Not really.

    It will see the Tories hold more seats from the LDs.


    Swinson is in the next debate so the LD vote will then go to her after not Corbyn
    I think you are being over confident. Last night was a shambles and did neither leader any favours.

    I am far from convinced Boris will achieve a working majority but of course I hope he does as to me defenestrating Corbyn is the most important issue, not brexit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Time for a change of trousers at Urquhart towers ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Two interesting comments from Nicola Sturgeon (from the Guardian live blog):

    Sturgeon says it was not inevitable that Brexit had to be this chaotic.

    She says, if Scotland were to vote for independence, the process of separating from England would not have to be like Brexit.


    On the first: No, darling, it didn't, and if your MPs had voted for the orderly version available under Theresa May then it wouldn't have been.

    On the second: She's not stupid, she can see the risk of Scottish voters realising that Scottish independence would be even messier than Brexit.

    No it would be worse as Scotland sends more exports to England than the UK does to the EU
    On the other hand, as more of Scotland's physical exports (by value) go to the EU than the rest of the UK, staying in the EU CU/SM would be making the best of a bad situation.
    60% of Scottish exports to to rUK, just 18% to the EU and it would have to negotiate to join the SM and Customs Union anyway after the UK has left them

    https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication
  • HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance of a majority and need everything to go right to be the biggest party . But even if they’re not the biggest party they have others they can work with . The Tories have zero allies and only a majority will do .

    The Brexit Party if they win an MP would work with the Tories, as might the DUP or UUP or even the Alliance Party, though the former prefer No Deal and the latter the Deal.

    The LDs will refuse to work with Corbyn
    I suspect if push comes to shove Swinson will prop up a Labour government, at least until a second referendum is delivered. Same with Nicola for IndyRef2.

    My reasoning? I don’t think either will want another election. They will be worried about the squeeze that could occur in such circumstances.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    I have to say, the cannabis policy makes perfect sense for Labour, who want to get as many of the yuff down the polling station.

    But Lib Dems less so. They are trying to pitch to middle class parents, many of which are obviously very concerned about drugs messing up their kids futures.
    Frquent flyer tax? hmmmnnn...
    Yeah that't not going to go down well either with your stereotypical Surrey type who works hard, gets paid well from which they like to enjoy 3 foreign holidays a year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Time for a change of trousers at Urquhart towers ?
    Some PB Tories really do need to man up, if they want to be of help do some canvassing or leafleting rather than bedwetting on here
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    I have to say, the cannabis policy makes perfect sense for Labour, who want to get as many of the yuff down the polling station.

    But Lib Dems less so. They are trying to pitch to middle class parents, many of which are obviously very concerned about drugs messing up their kids futures.
    I think more people just don't find weed that scary. My grandparents keep telling me how much they want to try it, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of my cousin gets them some for Christmas...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    I have to say, the cannabis policy makes perfect sense for Labour, who want to get as many of the yuff down the polling station.

    But Lib Dems less so. They are trying to pitch to middle class parents, many of which are obviously very concerned about drugs messing up their kids futures.
    By giving them a criminal record for smoking pot or taking E.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
    Oh well that's okay then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    There is no mistaking the Liberal Democrats' central appeal to voters. The words "STOP BREXIT" appear in large capital letters on the front of the manifesto.

    And on the ballot paper as a strapline, in most constituencies
  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Time for a change of trousers at Urquhart towers ?
    Absolutely.....


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Not really.

    It will see the Tories hold more seats from the LDs.


    Swinson is in the next debate so the LD vote will then go to her after not Corbyn
    I think you are being over confident. Last night was a shambles and did neither leader any favours.

    I am far from convinced Boris will achieve a working majority but of course I hope he does as to me defenestrating Corbyn is the most important issue, not brexit
    No I am not being over confident but if you spend your time thinking you will lose you probably will and committing to deliver Brexit is vital to deliver the coalition to beat Corbyn anyway
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Ooh, I just got my Green Party addressed Freepost, first sign of the election at my house
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Fair enough. Now timeline it. It is currently 2019. I assume Boris will win a workable majority and be in office until 2024. When may we expect this points system please?

    And can you guarantee there will be no reference to nationality (or supranational entity, eg EU or commonwealth)?
    The transition period ends December 2020 so by 2021
    We already have a points system for non-EU migration. The problem is that the real world is complex. (Which is why the US has an incredibly complex, but largely effective, immigration system.)

    1. Does your points system also cover spouses and children of British citizens? What about other close family members?

    2. What about non-immigrant visas? So, if you aren't planning on staying in the UK but are coming to run your firm's British office for a couple of years, is that part of the points system?

    3. What about specific needs in the economy? In Australia, for example, there are also quotas for specific jobs. So, you might meet none of the points requirements to enter Australia, but there are 25 spaces for bricklayers, and you're one?

    4. What about student visas? Or working holiday visas? Do they become points based too?

    5. What about countries where we have reciprocal arrangements, like Ireland. Do they become part of the points system?

    Even Australia, long lauded for its points system, only gets around 30-40% of its immigrants through it.
  • Are we not missing the big news from last night? Which is surely does Jose Mourinho's tired old trick of sticking 5 at the back and parking the bus have anything to offer in the era of gegenpressing?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    Looks like they're attacking the soft-left Labour flank.
    Yes, but I don't see how that wins them seats. Picking up vote share for the sake of it seems pretty pointless. Seems like a bad move that runs the risk of either soft Labour voters flooding back to Corbyn last minute, or the messaging getting confused so that left wing voters think they're too right wing, and vice versa.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance of a majority and need everything to go right to be the biggest party . But even if they’re not the biggest party they have others they can work with . The Tories have zero allies and only a majority will do .

    The Brexit Party if they win an MP would work with the Tories, as might the DUP or UUP or even the Alliance Party, though the former prefer No Deal and the latter the Deal.

    The LDs will refuse to work with Corbyn
    I suspect if push comes to shove Swinson will prop up a Labour government, at least until a second referendum is delivered. Same with Nicola for IndyRef2.

    My reasoning? I don’t think either will want another election. They will be worried about the squeeze that could occur in such circumstances.
    Unless Swinson positively votes for a Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM if he leads the largest party still and she holds the balance of power, she can still vote for an EUref2 amendment of course
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Time for a change of trousers at Urquhart towers ?
    I understand the fretting after 2017 but its a double figure poll lead almost everywhere and a debate that had no clear winner, if they don't mess up the manifesto then they are in a strong position. May messed up the debates and the manifesto so already things are looking 1 better!
  • Are we not missing the big news from last night? Which is surely does Jose Mourinho's tired old trick of sticking 5 at the back and parking the bus have anything to offer in the era of gegenpressing?

    I know Amazon Prime tv shows aren't up to the standard of Netflix or HBO, but seems a bit of an extreme plot twist for their Spurs show.
  • viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
    There is a Genesis song from the 80s also called "Mama".

    Pause.

    Damn, I am a sad (rude word)... :(
    If we want to go even sadder, we can also include the Spice Girls hit of the same name.
  • HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance of a majority and need everything to go right to be the biggest party . But even if they’re not the biggest party they have others they can work with . The Tories have zero allies and only a majority will do .

    The Brexit Party if they win an MP would work with the Tories, as might the DUP or UUP or even the Alliance Party, though the former prefer No Deal and the latter the Deal.

    The LDs will refuse to work with Corbyn
    I suspect if push comes to shove Swinson will prop up a Labour government, at least until a second referendum is delivered. Same with Nicola for IndyRef2.

    My reasoning? I don’t think either will want another election. They will be worried about the squeeze that could occur in such circumstances.
    Cash limits... can they AFFORD another one so soon. Empty coffers etc...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Fair enough. Now timeline it. It is currently 2019. I assume Boris will win a workable majority and be in office until 2024. When may we expect this points system please?

    And can you guarantee there will be no reference to nationality (or supranational entity, eg EU or commonwealth)?
    The transition period and free movement ends December 2020 so by 2021
    A direct answer. Thank you.
    Thanks
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
    Which is a civil offence against a person. Boris Johnson could sue, and could claim his lost earnings. (PB lawyers, please correct me if I'm wrong.)
  • Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    There is a danger that if the polls tighten those flirting with the lib dems will vote for Boris to stop Corbyn aided by their drug policy which is not going to be popular with many conservatives
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
    Mamma mia let me go
    Bismillah, no, we will not let you go...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    A letter written to the Times newspaper by Buckingham Palace has cast doubt on when the Duke of York first met convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The 2011 letter says they met in the early 1990s, not in 1999 as Prince Andrew said in his BBC interview.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50487104
  • rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
    Oh well that's okay then.
    What's the alternative?

    I'm not OK with censors telling us what politicians can and can't say. That is the preserve of dictators not a free society.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    It won't change any minds but UnHerd's report on Stoke is a fascinating read

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/stoke-the-city-that-britain-forgot/


    An interesting read, thanks for the link.

    Hands up who among PB Tories thinks that Bozo will actually show any interest in Stoke once he has his majority?
    He will deliver Brexit and replace free movement with a points system and raise the minimum wage as Stoke voters want
    Fair enough. Now timeline it. It is currently 2019. I assume Boris will win a workable majority and be in office until 2024. When may we expect this points system please?

    And can you guarantee there will be no reference to nationality (or supranational entity, eg EU or commonwealth)?
    The transition period ends December 2020 so by 2021
    We already have a points system for non-EU migration. The problem is that the real world is complex. (Which is why the US has an incredibly complex, but largely effective, immigration system.)

    1. Does your points system also cover spouses and children of British citizens? What about other close family members?

    2. What about non-immigrant visas? So, if you aren't planning on staying in the UK but are coming to run your firm's British office for a couple of years, is that part of the points system?

    3. What about specific needs in the economy? In Australia, for example, there are also quotas for specific jobs. So, you might meet none of the points requirements to enter Australia, but there are 25 spaces for bricklayers, and you're one?

    4. What about student visas? Or working holiday visas? Do they become points based too?

    5. What about countries where we have reciprocal arrangements, like Ireland. Do they become part of the points system?

    Even Australia, long lauded for its points system, only gets around 30-40% of its immigrants through it.
    It is something that has triggered me for a long time. 50% of immigration is non-EU and the government has had complete control over it and yet what has it done? Nothing. Because they know that immigration is largely a good thing for the economy, but it is much better to blame "Europe" when joe public goes swivel eyed over the subject
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Not really.

    It will see the Tories hold more seats from the LDs.


    Swinson is in the next debate so the LD vote will then go to her after not Corbyn
    I think you are being over confident. Last night was a shambles and did neither leader any favours.

    I am far from convinced Boris will achieve a working majority but of course I hope he does as to me defenestrating Corbyn is the most important issue, not brexit
    You are stuck in a town on the N Wales coast with only the sea in front of you. HY, on the other hand, should have a splendid view from the top of his very lofty ivory tower......

    :D:D
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited November 2019
    Most middle class voters have tried cannabis , much of the Lib Dem voter base is likely to have gone to university and many people would be quite happy for it to be legalized .

    All this faux outrage from some in here is laughable.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
    Oh well that's okay then.
    What's the alternative?

    I'm not OK with censors telling us what politicians can and can't say. That is the preserve of dictators not a free society.
    And yet you're happy for them to be prosecuted for libel?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour have no chance of a majority and need everything to go right to be the biggest party . But even if they’re not the biggest party they have others they can work with . The Tories have zero allies and only a majority will do .

    The Brexit Party if they win an MP would work with the Tories, as might the DUP or UUP or even the Alliance Party, though the former prefer No Deal and the latter the Deal.

    The LDs will refuse to work with Corbyn
    I suspect if push comes to shove Swinson will prop up a Labour government, at least until a second referendum is delivered. Same with Nicola for IndyRef2.

    My reasoning? I don’t think either will want another election. They will be worried about the squeeze that could occur in such circumstances.
    Unless Swinson positively votes for a Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM if he leads the largest party still and she holds the balance of power, she can still vote for an EUref2 amendment of course
    Oh god the very thought of yet more of the perpetual second referendum amendments and perpetual parliamentary melodrama is enough to make one dream of a Corbyn ministry. The very worst possible scenario is another minority Tory government faffing about and being held to ransom.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Not really.

    It will see the Tories hold more seats from the LDs.


    Swinson is in the next debate so the LD vote will then go to her after not Corbyn
    I think you are being over confident. Last night was a shambles and did neither leader any favours.

    I am far from convinced Boris will achieve a working majority but of course I hope he does as to me defenestrating Corbyn is the most important issue, not brexit
    No I am not being over confident but if you spend your time thinking you will lose you probably will and committing to deliver Brexit is vital to deliver the coalition to beat Corbyn anyway
    Yes - don't think. It would ruin the Tory chances. Just commit to the cause. It's evangelical.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    74% of Leavers thought Boris won the debate, 72% of Remainers thought Corbyn won
    That isn't great for the Tories....because the Tories ideally need Corbyn to tank and Remain vote to split between Labour and Lib Dems. If Labour start to squeeze Lib Dem further and become the Remain party vote, get to 35% that is terrible news for Tories / majority / Brexit.
    Not really.

    It will see the Tories hold more seats from the LDs.


    Swinson is in the next debate so the LD vote will then go to her after not Corbyn
    I think you are being over confident. Last night was a shambles and did neither leader any favours.

    I am far from convinced Boris will achieve a working majority but of course I hope he does as to me defenestrating Corbyn is the most important issue, not brexit
    You are stuck in a town on the N Wales coast with only the sea in front of you. HY, on the other hand, should have a splendid view from the top of his very lofty ivory tower......

    :D:D
    Sea to the front and the mountains to the rear. A beautiful part of the UK
  • rcs1000 said:

    No it does not.

    Nobody should ever have the role regulating election material and we must have absolute free speech. Regulating election material is the preserve of dictators not free societies. Imagine the squealing there'd be if a government-appointed body was censoring material the Opposition was pointing out. Imagine if a government-appointed censor was telling Jeremy Corbyn he can't say the Tories are putting the NHS up for sale . . . because they're not.
    What about if a political party used a deep fake in an advert to show Boris Johnson advocating killing Muslims for fun?
    Surely then they can and should be done for libel afterwards.
    Oh well that's okay then.
    What's the alternative?

    I'm not OK with censors telling us what politicians can and can't say. That is the preserve of dictators not a free society.
    And yet you're happy for them to be prosecuted for libel?
    Assuming some nutters do not take it as a relaxing of the law and go out and kill someone.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Robbie Williams is from Stoke, I believe. A member of the original Take That but people perhaps know him best for his massive solo hit, "Angels".

    "And through it all she offered me protection, a lot of love and affection ..."

    It was apparently about his mother. Not his wife or girlfriend, not any sort of romantic partner, his mother. Unusual for a pop song.

    Mama oooh-ooh-ooh-oooh
    There is a Genesis song from the 80s also called "Mama".

    Pause.

    Damn, I am a sad (rude word)... :(
    If we want to go even sadder, we can also include the Spice Girls hit of the same name.
    I wouldn't worry: there is no depth of sadness regarding popular music that I have not already plumbed... :(
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Endillion said:

    Are the Lib Dems actively trying to drive Tory Remainers in the South back to Johnson?

    There is a danger that if the polls tighten those flirting with the lib dems will vote for Boris to stop Corbyn aided by their drug policy which is not going to be popular with many conservatives
    Correct. There is also the feeling, whatever they say, the libs will work with Corbyn
This discussion has been closed.