Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
The last paragraph seems like excellent analysis. I'm in no doubt that he would if he could. Johnson and the ERG are mutually disloyal.
Johnson would need a majority of 60+ though, which I consider unlikely.
I can beli But it would be fun to see some of the egregious figures not rewarded with Cabinet places.
It's a similar problem to what a non-Corbynite Labour leader might face, assuming they could win the membership. The hard core of awkward squad members that Corbyn used to inhabit may well be much larger now, even if the membership turns away from them (which at present does not appear likely).
Depends whether a new intake of MPs, with all the ministerial possibilities their future might throw them, would die in a ditch, having brexited, for a more brexity form of brexit,
I cannot believe that a new MP, elected on the back of a 60+ majority PM, wouldimmediately stab that PM in the back to side with brexithardmansteve Baker and his acolytes.
Most of them you're probably right. But some key decisions on Europe will be further down the line, Baker and his mates will not be any more amenable to anything looking like compromise, and at least some of the new intake will, like the membership, be fully behind them in that. 60 is comfortable for most business, but Boris would be wary and not upset the ERG crowd I think.
Indeed. Why and how would a man on the clapham omnibus consider 50+ BXP seats to be nonsense?
Well at least some of them will know how FPTP works - that's why 50+ is even there a fringe view - but it really is a very useful poll for showing how weird we are here.
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales.
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
Indeed. Why and how would a man on the clapham omnibus consider 50+ BXP seats to be nonsense?
Was it a fever dream, or was there a focus group member earlier in the week who thought Farage was a Lib-Dem?
Yes. Not the first time I've heard that, although the only other time it was when Farron was LD leader, so I think that explains it - I hope just as a name mix-up.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales.
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
However it appears in this scenario that they'd hold Aberdeen South, the very much ex cionstituency of Ross 'SNP gain' Thomson. What's the opposite of an incumbency bonus?
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
If Labour are going to be releasing their manifesto on Thursday shouldn't the LDs get theirs out first? Get at least some airtime and hopefully, for them, make it seem like Labour's copies theirs in inferior fashion.
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales.
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
Is Welsh older than Latin?
Latin is only spoken in Latin America...not in Europe..
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
We all know that the LibDems will have rejoin in their 2024 manifesto, if we've left, but I can see Labour having a commitment to a much softer Brexit in 2024 (or whenever it happens).
The Tories will be harder to predict but if we have a FTA then it'll be the status quo on offer. If we've left with no deal the FTA will still be on the table. The thing is that when we start the negotiations for the FTA all of the things that the Tories don't like about the EU will be back on the table (Fishing rights, Freedom of Movement, paying into the budget etc).
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
The Tories are a party led by someone who intends to remain PM and do whatever it takes to do so. At the moment his only chance of remaining PM is to adopt the position he has. There is no reason to think this will remain the case. A hard Brexit is not a good candidate for staying popular for long afterwards. If Boris had not fronted the Leave campaign the probability is that a chap called David Cameron, 2 years junior to Boris, would be PM now and one day they would be looking for a younger replacement.
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales.
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
Is Welsh older than Latin?
Latin is only spoken in Latin America...not in Europe..
The only country* with Latin as the official Language is the Holy See.
How do you get to see the Election Maps graphics in full?
If you click on it you get one page with only a part of each graphic.
Click on the graphic again, and you should see one individually. I think there should be a left/right arrow on the side of the screen to scroll through them.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
The Tories are a party led by someone who intends to remain PM and do whatever it takes to do so. At the moment his only chance of remaining PM is to adopt the position he has. There is no reason to think this will remain the case. A hard Brexit is not a good candidate for staying popular for long afterwards. If Boris had not fronted the Leave campaign the probability is that a chap called David Cameron, 2 years junior to Boris, would be PM now and one day they would be looking for a yonger replacement.
To me it really depends on how deep the Tory penetration is into the Northern and Midland leave labour areas. If they go Tory in sizeable numbers then Boris will need to govern to keep this "new" coalition of voters together. This means he can not agree to fom, current fishing quotas, because these voters want a hardish brexit.
I see lots of hardball next year between the 2 sides, Boris not taking up the option of extending the transistion and then maybe a limited fudge deal or no deal.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales.
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
Is Welsh older than Latin?
Latin is only spoken in Latin America...not in Europe..
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales.
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
How do you get to see the Election Maps graphics in full?
If you click on it you get one page with only a part of each graphic.
Click on the graphic again, and you should see one individually. I think there should be a left/right arrow on the side of the screen to scroll through them.
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
Yes, Yes, No and Yes.
Boris would be doing what he'd planned in the first place, Lose the referendum and make a One-Nation Conservative pitch to replace Cameron. He'd not be as tainted as he is now. (although the bus would still come around to haunt him).
JC is/was never going anywhere.
going back to 2015 the SNP would still be the third largest party and Farron would still be leader of the Lib Dems
He would be sulking about losing the referendum but still pushing for another one
It doesn't matter whether a queen's speech gets through or not, now that an election before five years are up can only be called by FTPA methods or by repealing the FTPA. There's little point in having a vote on the queen's speech. Lose it and that's just another vote that the government has lost. They can still write bills for each part of the programme they announced in it.
Not really. Both languages descend from Proto Indo-European, and all questions like this beg all sorts of questions like "what do you define as the point when one language in the chain of descent becomes another?"
Though the Brythonic group of languages (of which Welsh is part) is probably about 4,000 years old, Welsh probably became a distinct language only by about 500 AD. By comparison, Latin broke away from other members of the Italic group of languages, with easily read inscriptions, around 500 BC. In Latin's first thousand years, the ethnic group speaking Latin produced an empire (including Wales) which was governed largely in Latin, virtually all the literature we now call Classical Latin (Virgil, Caesar, etc) and the translation of the Christian and Jewish sacred books known as the Vulgate which became the basis of the dominant liturgical, academic and administrative language through most of Europe till about 1500 AD.
Ironically, the natives in Latin-governed Wales probably didn't speak a language we'd call Welsh today. Under Roman occupation, though, the language they did speak - an early ancestor of Welsh - would have been broadly the same as the language the natives spoke at the time in most of England and southern Scotland.
As you probably know, just about the earliest surviving bit of Welsh literature - the Book of Aneiryn - describes a battle around 600 AD at what's probably Catterick between followers of the Brythonic Mynyddawg Mwynfawr, king of Manaw Gododdin (Edinburgh) and invading Angles. The Angles won.
Not really. Both languages descend from Proto Indo-European, and all questions like this beg all sorts of questions like "what do you define as the point when one language in the chain of descent becomes another?"
It's the question of when a dialect becomes a new language.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
It seems to me that Westminster is just an offshoot of a dating website So many MPs are having affairs either with other MPs or members of their staff. Family splits happen all the time. There are some exceptions but in the main both Male and female MPs seem to have a sex addiction issue.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
It seems to me that Westminster is just an offshoot of a dating website So many MPs are having affairs either with other MPs or members of their staff. Family splits happen all the time. There are some exceptions but in the main both Male and female MPs seem to have a sex addiction issue.
Is that why they spend so much time screwing the country?
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
Yes, Yes, No and Yes.
Boris would be doing what he'd planned in the first place, Lose the referendum and make a One-Nation Conservative pitch to replace Cameron. He'd not be as tainted as he is now. (although the bus would still come around to haunt him).
JC is/was never going anywhere.
going back to 2015 the SNP would still be the third largest party and Farron would still be leader of the Lib Dems
He would be sulking about losing the referendum but still pushing for another one
Of course, all this presupposes Cameron would not have called, and won, a general election in 2017 or 2018. Given the size of his majority and pressure from the SNP plus the overwhelming temptation to capitalise on Labour’s implosion under Corbyn I think that would be a bold assumption.
Interesting header. I think there are also potentially big differences depending on the exact size of the majority - certainly as far as the future relationship with the EU is concerned. In rough terms, the larger the majority the less aligned the future relationship
Other way round I'd have thought, although it's a huge question for, oddly enough, the LibDems. If there is a small Tory majority, and with Brexit already having happened, would they help Boris see off the nuttier ERGers to get a sensible trade deal? If, as in the last parliament, they persist in simply joining Labour to be obstructive to anything the PM tries to do, then that hands the ERG a loaded pistol and they'll be able to make it as loose an arrangement as possible. (I'm taking it as a given that the SNP and Labour will be purely obstructive, irrespective of the national interest).
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
Doesn’t it rather depend on who these new potential Tory MPs are?
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
He will try and thread the needle between remaining resolutely EU-sceptic enough for his own backbenches, and the EU-centric enough to avoid any short-term shock to the economy. I do genuinely believe he sees a UK-US FTA as a way out, although I think even with a 150 majority he'll struggle to see it through.
My guess is that he will end up being a poor Prime Minister. He will be all short term tactics, and no long term strategy. He'll splurge cash, and leave the country in greater hock than before, and this will of course worsen the trade deficit. At some point - probably before the end of the next Parliament - this will come home to haunt him.
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
The Tories are a party led by someone who intends to remain PM and do whatever it takes to do so. At the moment his only chance of remaining PM is to adopt the position he has. There is no reason to think this will remain the case. A hard Brexit is not a good candidate for staying popular for long afterwards. If Boris had not fronted the Leave campaign the probability is that a chap called David Cameron, 2 years junior to Boris, would be PM now and one day they would be looking for a yonger replacement.
To me it really depends on how deep the Tory penetration is into the Northern and Midland leave labour areas. If they go Tory in sizeable numbers then Boris will need to govern to keep this "new" coalition of voters together. This means he can not agree to fom, current fishing quotas, because these voters want a hardish brexit.
I see lots of hardball next year between the 2 sides, Boris not taking up the option of extending the transistion and then maybe a limited fudge deal or no deal.
To win in 2024 Boris needs to work out in advance what people will think after Brexit, not now. Politics has neither gratitude nor consistency.
Not really. Both languages descend from Proto Indo-European, and all questions like this beg all sorts of questions like "what do you define as the point when one language in the chain of descent becomes another?"
Though the Brythonic group of languages (of which Welsh is part) is probably about 4,000 years old, Welsh probably became a distinct language only by about 500 AD. By comparison, Latin broke away from other members of the Italic group of languages, with easily read inscriptions, around 500 BC. In Latin's first thousand years, the ethnic group speaking Latin produced an empire (including Wales) which was governed largely in Latin, virtually all the literature we now call Classical Latin (Virgil, Caesar, etc) and the translation of the Christian and Jewish sacred books known as the Vulgate which became the basis of the dominant liturgical, academic and administrative language through most of Europe till about 1500 AD.
Ironically, the natives in Latin-governed Wales probably didn't speak a language we'd call Welsh today. Under Roman occupation, though, the language they did speak - an early ancestor of Welsh - would have been broadly the same as the language the natives spoke at the time in most of England and southern Scotland.
As you probably know, just about the earliest surviving bit of Welsh literature - the Book of Aneiryn - describes a battle around 600 AD at what's probably Catterick between followers of the Brythonic Mynyddawg Mwynfawr, king of Manaw Gododdin (Edinburgh) and invading Angles. The Angles won.
Thank you for that. You flatter me in the last paragraph: I’m a Physics teacher after all. Would the relationship between ancient Welsh and the modern version be similar to that between Ancient Greek and modern, or is it more direct?
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
I couldn't see Nick Clegg overthrowing Tim Farron! And how would the LDs have overtaken the SNP to become the third largest party?
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
The Welsh language is the oldest language in Europe and at one time was spoken in what is now England as well as in Wales. There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle. There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
Is Welsh older than Latin?
Latin is only spoken in Latin America...not in Europe..
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
I couldn't see Nick Clegg overthrowing Tim Farron! And how would the LDs have overtaken the SNP to become the third largest party?
Nick Clegg to have defected to the SNP as their first English MP. He stood in as leader after they got fed up with Robertson and his successor Eck found himself in trouble with the rozzers.
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
Yes, Yes, No and Yes.
Boris would be doing what he'd planned in the first place, Lose the referendum and make a One-Nation Conservative pitch to replace Cameron. He'd not be as tainted as he is now. (although the bus would still come around to haunt him).
JC is/was never going anywhere.
going back to 2015 the SNP would still be the third largest party and Farron would still be leader of the Lib Dems
He would be sulking about losing the referendum but still pushing for another one
Of course, all this presupposes Cameron would not have called, and won, a general election in 2017 or 2018. Given the size of his majority and pressure from the SNP plus the overwhelming temptation to capitalise on Labour’s implosion under Corbyn I think that would be a bold assumption.
I think Cameron would have stood aside. Given benign economic conditions, I think GO would be PM and the taps would have been loosened up a bit.
I think Yvette would be LOTO and the centre ground would have been closed up squeezing the LDs into oblivion.
Nigel would be around, causing GO terrible problems on his right flank.
Not really. Both languages descend from Proto Indo-European, and all questions like this beg all sorts of questions like "what do you define as the point when one language in the chain of descent becomes another?"
It's the question of when a dialect becomes a new language.
Looking forward to seeing a Tory rolling up their sleeves and getting out to speak to me on my doorstep. There's a first time for everything.
A sole Tory canvasser, who turned out to be Tory candidate, dropped by leafletting on the Isle of Wight, while visiting family. Not an unpleasant encounter, but a little disappointed to meet an extended family of Remainers. I got the impression from him that he wasn't keen on Brexit himself, but rather considered it an unpleasant duty. Maybe he was just tailoring his pitch to the audience.
My guess is that he will end up being a poor Prime Minister. He will be all short term tactics, and no long term strategy. He'll splurge cash, and leave the country in greater hock than before, and this will of course worsen the trade deficit. At some point - probably before the end of the next Parliament - this will come home to haunt him.
It doesn't particularly matter whether he's a good prime minister or not just whether he's a lucky one.
In the first year or so John Major was quite lucky to be facing Neil Kinnock but afterwards he was unlucky to keep having ministers suffering from sleaze allegation.
Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher were both Lucky PMs because opponents went their way for most of their time as PM and events tended to help. (Iraq excepted).
Brown was unlucky to get in as PM just before economic collapse.
You can argue that they all made their own luck (good or bad).
As for Boris, I think that he's getting quite lucky at the moment but there is always the chance of a major economic shock coming (No-Deal followed by recession). Certainly when it comes to Europe he's been quite lucky at the moment.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
He will try and thread the needle between remaining resolutely EU-sceptic enough for his own backbenches, and the EU-centric enough to avoid any short-term shock to the economy. I do genuinely believe he sees a UK-US FTA as a way out, although I think even with a 150 majority he'll struggle to see it through.
My guess is that he will end up being a poor Prime Minister. He will be all short term tactics, and no long term strategy. He'll splurge cash, and leave the country in greater hock than before, and this will of course worsen the trade deficit. At some point - probably before the end of the next Parliament - this will come home to haunt him.
Don't forget he's splurging the cash [at limited targets] now before an election. Cameron before both elections he fought chose targets to splurge cash at, as did May. Even Osborne at every budget even when there was no election found a bauble or two to splurge on. Debt-to-GDP is falling now so there is room to splurge a bit more.
Doesn't mean post-election splurging will continue though. If the spending commitments are met but spending on other areas is kept under control then that should be OK.
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
Not really. Both languages descend from Proto Indo-European, and all questions like this beg all sorts of questions like "what do you define as the point when one language in the chain of descent becomes another?"
Though the Brythonic group of languages (of which Welsh is part) is probably about 4,000 years old, Welsh probably became a distinct language only by about 500 AD. By comparison, Latin broke away from other members of the Italic group of languages, with easily read inscriptions, around 500 BC. In Latin's first thousand years, the ethnic group speaking Latin produced an empire (including Wales) which was governed largely in Latin, virtually all the literature we now call Classical Latin (Virgil, Caesar, etc) and the translation of the Christian and Jewish sacred books known as the Vulgate which became the basis of the dominant liturgical, academic and administrative language through most of Europe till about 1500 AD.
Ironically, the natives in Latin-governed Wales probably didn't speak a language we'd call Welsh today. Under Roman occupation, though, the language they did speak - an early ancestor of Welsh - would have been broadly the same as the language the natives spoke at the time in most of England and southern Scotland.
As you probably know, just about the earliest surviving bit of Welsh literature - the Book of Aneiryn - describes a battle around 600 AD at what's probably Catterick between followers of the Brythonic Mynyddawg Mwynfawr, king of Manaw Gododdin (Edinburgh) and invading Angles. The Angles won.
Thank you for that. You flatter me in the last paragraph: I’m a Physics teacher after all. Would the relationship between ancient Welsh and the modern version be similar to that between Ancient Greek and modern, or is it more direct?
I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
Yes indeed. We're all wary of polling and models now, since it seems impossible to tell beforehand which might be right, and though gut feel can be very wrong too and I do think it will be relatively close, even with inefficient voting and tactical voting it feels strange to see the vote share difference increase, yet seats go down as a result of tweaks.
Because they have a methological change. Their model based in Electoral Calculus, shows a change because EC have now modelled for tactical voting.
I think it's a bit of wishful thinking as 6.5 million tactical votes are already factored in from 2017. How much more tactical voting do they think their will be?
The Polling Industry hereby wishes it to be known that continuing large Conservative poll leads are Very Bad For Business as no-one is commissioning. Therefore, we will amend our methodologies on a random basis to make it look like things are getting much closer.
Any link between these polls and the final result is purely coincidental.
Not really. Both languages descend from Proto Indo-European, and all questions like this beg all sorts of questions like "what do you define as the point when one language in the chain of descent becomes another?"
Though the Brythonic group of languages (of which Welsh is part) is probably about 4,000 years old, Welsh probably became a distinct language only by about 500 AD. By comparison, Latin broke away from other members of the Italic group of languages, with easily read inscriptions, around 500 BC. In Latin's first thousand years, the ethnic group speaking Latin produced an empire (including Wales) which was governed largely in Latin, virtually all the literature we now call Classical Latin (Virgil, Caesar, etc) and the translation of the Christian and Jewish sacred books known as the Vulgate which became the basis of the dominant liturgical, academic and administrative language through most of Europe till about 1500 AD.
Ironically, the natives in Latin-governed Wales probably didn't speak a language we'd call Welsh today. Under Roman occupation, though, the language they did speak - an early ancestor of Welsh - would have been broadly the same as the language the natives spoke at the time in most of England and southern Scotland.
As you probably know, just about the earliest surviving bit of Welsh literature - the Book of Aneiryn - describes a battle around 600 AD at what's probably Catterick between followers of the Brythonic Mynyddawg Mwynfawr, king of Manaw Gododdin (Edinburgh) and invading Angles. The Angles won.
Thank you for that. You flatter me in the last paragraph: I’m a Physics teacher after all. Would the relationship between ancient Welsh and the modern version be similar to that between Ancient Greek and modern, or is it more direct?
Basque is older, surely
Nobody knows how old either Basque or Welsh are. One is Indo-European, one is of uncertain origin.
Wouldn’t it be more useful to agree both are very old and leave it at that?
Edit - btw, I see the Tories are really going to town trying to get your vote;
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
Given the huge variation in them, that’s not a valid question. Polls with leads of eight and sixteen can’t both be ‘spot on.’
Okay, rephrase:
Do you think the polls with large leads are likely to be more close to the truth than those showing small leads?
Maybe, but the follow up is whether we think that truth, if it is the truth, will remain the truth, or if small leads will be where things end up. For now I'll say yes, Tories to lead by 3-5% in the end, but I'll take stock next week.
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
At this moment, what can we say about the polls? (Other than that they’re hard workers and Johnson will deport them all when he gets returned to power.)
1) They all show comfortable Tory leads. Even the worst suggest the Tories are around eight points ahead, which would if accurate surely be enough for at least a small overall majority.
2) They all show the Tories and Labour rising slightly, but not significantly.
3) They all show a very high number of Don’t Knows.
For my money, the third is the one that should give everyone pause. Why are there don’t knows? Obviously because neither leader is fit to run a whelk stall. Yet one will be PM on 13th December unless something very strange happens. I think therefore a lot of voters will make up their minds only when actually in the booth.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
I would therefore say I think the Tories are likely to if anything surprise on the upside this time, and that we should look for a few shocks particularly in the North of England and in Wales due to low turnout.
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
Given the huge variation in them, that’s not a valid question. Polls with leads of eight and sixteen can’t both be ‘spot on.’
It depends on what happens with the don't knows, and what the pollsters are doing with them. I think that the Tories are overstated and Labour understated in some of the larger Tory lead polls. I also think that there are a lot of Labour voters who dislike JC who will go back to voting Labour who are currently saying don't know.
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
Given the huge variation in them, that’s not a valid question. Polls with leads of eight and sixteen can’t both be ‘spot on.’
It depends on what happens with the don't knows, and what the pollsters are doing with them. I think that the Tories are overstated and Labour understated in some of the larger Tory lead polls. I also think that there are a lot of Labour voters who dislike JC who will go back to voting Labour who are currently saying don't know.
I have for some time been of the opinion that, to any poll, one can subtract 2 from the LibDems, 1 from Con and add 3 to Labour.
Like you, I have absolutely no evidence to back up my thesis. It just feels right. And requires no spreadsheet work whatsoever.
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
Given the huge variation in them, that’s not a valid question. Polls with leads of eight and sixteen can’t both be ‘spot on.’
It depends on what happens with the don't knows, and what the pollsters are doing with them. I think that the Tories are overstated and Labour understated in some of the larger Tory lead polls. I also think that there are a lot of Labour voters who dislike JC who will go back to voting Labour who are currently saying don't know.
The question is, will they vote at all? Turnout is the killer punch.
I have been saying for two years the next election will be won by who pisses off their supporters the least. At the moment Corbyn is pissing off a large chunk of his supporters with skill, energy and enthusiasm. Johnson is trying to shore up his base. At the moment, therefore, Labour would appear to be in the worse position.
That’s not to say it’s carved in stone (TM EICINPM) but three and a half weeks before an election I think the Tories should be happier than Labour.
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
Given the huge variation in them, that’s not a valid question. Polls with leads of eight and sixteen can’t both be ‘spot on.’
I think either is a big enough lead for a Tory majority.
My most profitable bit of betting in 2017 was my reverse ferret after the exit poll. I had backed a modest Tory majority, but went quickly from a red to a green position on a hung parliament. The gap before markets caught up was over an hour long. Referendum night was similar.
My most profitable constituency bets were on Labour defences against Tories, and Tory defences against Lib Dems. I thought these out of line with the seat number projections. I think they are again.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
1) If they believe him;
2) Do you think he will agree to refund those repayments already made as well? Otherwise it would lead to some bickering...
And recent DNA studies indicate that the Welsh, Irish & Basques are closely related...
I assume Breton also?
I dont know about the DNA - but Breton arrived from South West England as locals fled from Anglo-Saxon invaders. It is not native to Bretagne where it presumably replaced the local Gaulish language..
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
Indeed, Boris will go into the election after next if he wins this won either with a Canada style FTA agreed with the EU or with one still being negotiated but having left the transition period, otherwise the Brexit Party might overtake the Tories again.
We will only rejoin the EU or even the EEA under a Labour or LD led government, especially the latter
The question Labour waverers will have, is more of the same from the last 9 years less or more of a risk than something different under Corbyn?
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
The only conclusion he came to was that supporting leave was best for his career he never imagined it would win but would leave him as the anti Eu conservative to take over from Cameron. No principles no morals Johnson.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
Not just the students. Lots of parents of recent graduates too.
Zero interest on student debt and higher starting point on repayment would be a good start. Abolishing by a reduction in the higher rate threshold better still.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
It was not so much the writing of the articles as the suggestion he might easily have chosen the other one
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
As with 2017, it all depends on whether they actually turn out. This time, near christmas, I don't expect them to do so. Some of the shine has come off JC and I think it'll make a difference. It'll probably be closer to the long term average than last time.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
Not just the students. Lots of parents of recent graduates too.
Zero interest on student debt and higher starting point on repayment would be a good start. Abolishing by a reduction in the higher rate threshold better still.
The Tories would be stupid if they don't have a proposal to sort that mess out. So I don't expect anything.
Comments
There is an area of Northern England which was called the Gododdin and poetry exists in Welsh from that area.There is even a fragment of such poetry to be found on a stone sign as you travel south from Newcastle.
There are signs that the language is gaining in strength,Aldous Harding is quoted as being a learner.
https://imgur.com/8lMo9q1
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
Will 0.5x get tactical voting wrong?
Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
But Survation has been an outlier in 2015 and 2017 and got both within MOE.
They did get the EU Elections wrong, however.
The Tories will be harder to predict but if we have a FTA then it'll be the status quo on offer. If we've left with no deal the FTA will still be on the table. The thing is that when we start the negotiations for the FTA all of the things that the Tories don't like about the EU will be back on the table (Fishing rights, Freedom of Movement, paying into the budget etc).
If you click on it you get one page with only a part of each graphic.
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
I see lots of hardball next year between the 2 sides, Boris not taking up the option of extending the transistion and then maybe a limited fudge deal or no deal.
Yes
No
Yes
Boris would be doing what he'd planned in the first place, Lose the referendum and make a One-Nation Conservative pitch to replace Cameron. He'd not be as tainted as he is now. (although the bus would still come around to haunt him).
JC is/was never going anywhere.
going back to 2015 the SNP would still be the third largest party and Farron would still be leader of the Lib Dems
He would be sulking about losing the referendum but still pushing for another one
Though the Brythonic group of languages (of which Welsh is part) is probably about 4,000 years old, Welsh probably became a distinct language only by about 500 AD. By comparison, Latin broke away from other members of the Italic group of languages, with easily read inscriptions, around 500 BC. In Latin's first thousand years, the ethnic group speaking Latin produced an empire (including Wales) which was governed largely in Latin, virtually all the literature we now call Classical Latin (Virgil, Caesar, etc) and the translation of the Christian and Jewish sacred books known as the Vulgate which became the basis of the dominant liturgical, academic and administrative language through most of Europe till about 1500 AD.
Ironically, the natives in Latin-governed Wales probably didn't speak a language we'd call Welsh today. Under Roman occupation, though, the language they did speak - an early ancestor of Welsh - would have been broadly the same as the language the natives spoke at the time in most of England and southern Scotland.
As you probably know, just about the earliest surviving bit of Welsh literature - the Book of Aneiryn - describes a battle around 600 AD at what's probably Catterick between followers of the Brythonic Mynyddawg Mwynfawr, king of Manaw Gododdin (Edinburgh) and invading Angles. The Angles won.
So many MPs are having affairs either with other MPs or members of their staff. Family splits happen all the time.
There are some exceptions but in the main both Male and female MPs seem to have a sex addiction issue.
So basically, she’s unpopular because she’s done Jack while an MP?
It's going to be quiet on here for an hour while PB's Britannia Unchained mob go for a lie down.
He will try and thread the needle between remaining resolutely EU-sceptic enough for his own backbenches, and the EU-centric enough to avoid any short-term shock to the economy. I do genuinely believe he sees a UK-US FTA as a way out, although I think even with a 150 majority he'll struggle to see it through.
My guess is that he will end up being a poor Prime Minister. He will be all short term tactics, and no long term strategy. He'll splurge cash, and leave the country in greater hock than before, and this will of course worsen the trade deficit. At some point - probably before the end of the next Parliament - this will come home to haunt him.
Would the relationship between ancient Welsh and the modern version be similar to that between Ancient Greek and modern, or is it more direct?
I think Yvette would be LOTO and the centre ground would have been closed up squeezing the LDs into oblivion.
Nigel would be around, causing GO terrible problems on his right flank.
In the first year or so John Major was quite lucky to be facing Neil Kinnock but afterwards he was unlucky to keep having ministers suffering from sleaze allegation.
Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher were both Lucky PMs because opponents went their way for most of their time as PM and events tended to help. (Iraq excepted).
Brown was unlucky to get in as PM just before economic collapse.
You can argue that they all made their own luck (good or bad).
As for Boris, I think that he's getting quite lucky at the moment but there is always the chance of a major economic shock coming (No-Deal followed by recession). Certainly when it comes to Europe he's been quite lucky at the moment.
Doesn't mean post-election splurging will continue though. If the spending commitments are met but spending on other areas is kept under control then that should be OK.
'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister.
'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7693451/HARRY-COLE-Exclusive-club-ex-Prime-Ministers-rocked-rift.html
Any link between these polls and the final result is purely coincidental.
Wouldn’t it be more useful to agree both are very old and leave it at that?
Edit - btw, I see the Tories are really going to town trying to get your vote;
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/15/conservatives-reopen-railway-lines-closed-1960s-beeching-cuts/
Do you think the polls with large leads are likely to be more close to the truth than those showing small leads?
1) They all show comfortable Tory leads. Even the worst suggest the Tories are around eight points ahead, which would if accurate surely be enough for at least a small overall majority.
2) They all show the Tories and Labour rising slightly, but not significantly.
3) They all show a very high number of Don’t Knows.
For my money, the third is the one that should give everyone pause. Why are there don’t knows? Obviously because neither leader is fit to run a whelk stall. Yet one will be PM on 13th December unless something very strange happens. I think therefore a lot of voters will make up their minds only when actually in the booth.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
I would therefore say I think the Tories are likely to if anything surprise on the upside this time, and that we should look for a few shocks particularly in the North of England and in Wales due to low turnout.
It’s also highly offensive to scum.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Like you, I have absolutely no evidence to back up my thesis. It just feels right. And requires no spreadsheet work whatsoever.
I have been saying for two years the next election will be won by who pisses off their supporters the least. At the moment Corbyn is pissing off a large chunk of his supporters with skill, energy and enthusiasm. Johnson is trying to shore up his base. At the moment, therefore, Labour would appear to be in the worse position.
That’s not to say it’s carved in stone (TM EICINPM) but three and a half weeks before an election I think the Tories should be happier than Labour.
My most profitable bit of betting in 2017 was my reverse ferret after the exit poll. I had backed a modest Tory majority, but went quickly from a red to a green position on a hung parliament. The gap before markets caught up was over an hour long. Referendum night was similar.
My most profitable constituency bets were on Labour defences against Tories, and Tory defences against Lib Dems. I thought these out of line with the seat number projections. I think they are again.
2) Do you think he will agree to refund those repayments already made as well? Otherwise it would lead to some bickering...
We will only rejoin the EU or even the EEA under a Labour or LD led government, especially the latter
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
Who knows what will happen this time.
Zero interest on student debt and higher starting point on repayment would be a good start. Abolishing by a reduction in the higher rate threshold better still.