Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine what type of Brexit we get, if we get Brexit
As the late United States President, LBJ once said “Politics is the ability to count”. Currently the polls and the betting markets have a Conservative Majority as the most likely outcome, but these are fallible; the manifestoes are not out yet and the nation may not be comfortable with the idea of a large Tory Majority Gov’t.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I had to reset pwd too.
It's rather like what was said in Feb 74; whoever won or didn't win the election, you who called it lost!
On the whole I agree the pulpstar's broad analysis. We've had a lot of rebellions, and admirably people going indy or defecting to back up their words, unlike those who constantly moan about things but never act any differently, but the aftermath of a GE will not see that happen. I believe Stephen Lloyd, for instance, is being clear he would not commit to backing any deal this time.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1196002387087020033?s=20
https://twitter.com/snpwatch/status/1196081355949518860?s=20
I think there're a couple of layers in the upper reaches.
A big Tory majority allows Boris to really tough-it-out with the EU. I actually think he wants a reasonably soft sort of trade deal, but I'm sure he wants a deal. A slimmer overall majority makes him more vulnerable to delay tactics from the EU. I don't think realistically that'll happen unless the margins are wafer thin.
The middle bands might be changed by the Tories just sitting back and saying to the LDs - no deal unless you agree to the deal. The LDs are apparently 'anything but Leave', however they'll go for 'Leave with a deal' over no-deal any day.
Corbyn and co may or may not wibble some sort of crap along the way. Who cares.
In which case possibly Workington being the first to change hands, Lab to Con, since it declared around 0045 last time, swang to Tories last time, and has a sub 4k majority. Which may well explain why it was chosen to be a big deal at the start of the campaign.
On the other hand, pass probation and they might be in line for the big bucks (eventually). According to former employees, at this point employees are summoned to the finance director Adam Franks’ office and offered a stake in Bloom’s syndicate, which pays out winnings twice a year. It’s a multi-million pound pot, and pay-outs are rumoured to range from less than £100 to more than £500,000.
These select Starlizard staff don’t need to pay to join – the winnings are doled out like a bonus. A ‘bonus’ bonus – as winnings generated through gambling are tax exempt from tax under UK law.
https://thetab.com/2016/02/10/the-best-football-gambler-in-the-world-is-hiring-73680
Someone should suggest such a market to BF.
But last Sunday, at the nation’s historic home of free speech, two police officers told Roland Parsons he could no longer show his slogans and ordered him to remove them.
The 72-year-old former engineer has now vowed to go to court to challenge their actions. "
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693963/Christian-banned-displaying-banner-proclaiming-beliefs-vows-challenge-court.html
*as long as they don’t upset The Lizard.
First enter Wales
Then change it to... to Wales
Then for fun change it to ... in Wales
I Gymru
yng Ngymru
(In case you can’t be bothered!)
For more fun click on the speak icon on the Welsh side.
First enter Green.....
Then enter The Green (political) party... you need to enter (political) to get the right meaning of party...but then drop it
Info for Barnesian model.
BXP are not standing in 58 non Conservative seats.
18 are in Northern Ireland so park those.
That leaves 40 in England, Scotland and Wales.
I don't have list but it was posted at some point over recent days.
However to be quick - there are three marginal Lab seats where it may well make a substantial difference - Dudley North, Canterbury and Bristol North West.
I'm curious about your tactical voting assumptions. In particular given the Greens managed 2.3% here last time after the candidate withdrew from campaigning and endorsed Labour ... being squeezed down from 4 to 1 seems implausible. However I appreciate that could be rounding.
Could you please share your figures to 1 decimal point?
I think that the 295-312 zone is a stasis zone where no side is necessarily stronger to overcome another. Could still lead to an accidental no deal.
(Julie Elliott seems to have been invisible since elected - I'm not convinced she's got Sunderland's best interests at heart)
Conversely, if Boris gets a large majority, then he'll have the numbers, and more importantly the political capital, to do what Theresa May couldn't do and tell the ERG nutjobs to get stuffed. Some of them may again go through the lobbies with Corbyn and the SNP to try to kibosh things, but with a large majority that can be ridden out.
I have a number of concerns with it - the biggest being that I think that only in 1997 and 2001 was tactical voting such a big thing - but I think I understand the broad thrust of concept.
Oh, British polls...
So anything up to and including 325 Tory MPs pays out as NOM.
In 1919 while at Versailles, knowing his telephone line was open and anyone could be listening, Lloyd George would only speak to London if his private secretary Thomas Jones (who was also a Welsh speaker) was on the other end.
St Andrews students are probably more likely to be Conservative than students at any others in the country. There's probably a reasonable sized Brexit vote.
Conservative Leavers may have lent their vote to the LDs last time around, and they're not that far behind. Conservative Remainers may fear Corbyn more than Brexit.
On the other hand, the LDs can probably squeeze the Labour Unionist vote a little.
For the record, I suspect not, but it's certainly possible.
Which reminds me of this... https://xkcd.com/257/
Johnson would need a majority of 60+ though, which I consider unlikely.
(As it happens, it was nothing to do with autocorrect, I just buggered it up.)
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1196099148317106176
Will be interesting to see if this prediction is close.
I have reservations about us going back to Blairite majorities. Governments probably do best when they need to keep themselves focused and united to carry the day. It's not hard to imagine a Boris government getting lazy and self-indulgent is it?
But what I am crystal clear on is that the last 2 years since the 2017 election have been a disaster for the UK and its governance. The absurd levels of uncertainty and delays in the implementation of their instructions have caused economic damage and deep division in the country. We definitely need a government that can deliver its program and allow us to move on.
Edit - probably some of them still use Italian though.
But it would be fun to see some of the egregious figures not rewarded with Cabinet places.
It's a similar problem to what a non-Corbynite Labour leader might face, assuming they could win the membership. The hard core of awkward squad members that Corbyn used to inhabit may well be much larger now, even if the membership turns away from them (which at present does not appear likely).
I doubt Andrea Jenkyns advertised her brand of Euroscepticism before becoming an MP. Laura Trott in Sevenoaks looks interesting:
https://order-order.com/2019/11/08/former-cameron-adviser-seeking-ultra-safe-seat-predicted-corbyn-will-win-election/
Which means Johnson's hopes of a majority essentially are in a split Remain vote in England.
We saw those constituency polls last night, with the Lib Dems surging. I suspect that will continue and the votes in London will harmonise around the Lib Dems.
So if we presume two of those seats are gained by the Lib Dems (Canterbury is currently Labour - and will either be a Lib Dem gain in which case it's net zero for Remain or a Tory gain, which is a loss), that leaves Johnson probably -7 (if we assume 5 of the Scottish seats are lost, which seems likely).
So he needs to gain 7 seats to stand still. To have a notional majority he needs to gain another 3 on top of that, so he needs to make 10 net gains, by my calculation.
On current polling that looks pretty certain - but if things start to narrow it becomes more and more difficult.
It was a pleasure to hear Aaron Ramsey being interviewed in Welsh the other night ( he also did an interview in Italian)... and he is from Cardiff not Gwynedd.....
I think it's a bit of wishful thinking as 6.5 million tactical votes are already factored in from 2017. How much more tactical voting do they think their will be?
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1196095168845352960
I cannot believe that a new MP, elected on the back of a 60+ majority PM, wouldimmediately stab that PM in the back to side with brexithardmansteve Baker and his acolytes.
Have you updated your graph?