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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The number of Tory MPs elected on December 12th will determine

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  • nunu2 said:

    He's Bernie/Corbyn supporter but his model was very spon on in 2017? So I dont know. Private pensions
    More likely to shaft those under 35 - and the old don’t vote Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,260
    nico67 said:

    I think the Lib Dems need to ditch the Jo Swinson for PM literature as it’s likely to be met with derision .

    It can actually put people off . There’s a line crossed when voters start laughing at your literature. I like the Lib Dems but the PM line needs to be dropped .


    Some of us have been taking the piss out of it for a couple of weeks now....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    On the day the MRP was published for the first time during GE2017 there was also an ICM poll showing the Tories 12% ahead.
    It's hard to overstate how skeptical people where of the MRP estimate.

    Myself and Mr Meeks both came to the chin strokingly smug conclusion that whilst the MRP approach was interesting and would be valuableint he future it would need several electoral cycles before it was correctly calibrated.

    So many prime betting opportunities lost.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,185

    There is a reasonable middle ground between - "everyone thinks the same" and "everyone thinks differently".

    I think it is reasonable to talk about a general feeling among a large enough number of people to affect the outcome - and I do feel that in 2017 there was a swing to Labour for the purpose of denying Theresa May a majority.
    I'd agree that large numbers of voters may have thought this individually and voted accordingly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    eristdoof said:

    I don't buy this collective motivation for voting such as "people didn't want Theresa May to have a majority given the more they saw (or didn't) of her, the more they distrusted her = hung Parliament"

    In 2017, 32 million people voted all with individual reasons for how they voted.
    That's true, and while I think it reasonable enough to identify broad trends which may apply more than other factors, my gut feeling is the 'people didn't want May to have a majority' theory of why 2017 went the way it did is expecting a bit too much from the public in terms of collectively acting just the right way to almost, but not quite, get a majority, as an amorphous intent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353

    It will be dull (Corbyn) and incoherent (Boris). It will also be so divorced from reality as to describe an alternate universe where up is down and black is white.

    And we will all wonder how we deserve these two half-wits as choices for Leader
    Sadly we won't wonder how we deserve it, I think we know why we deserve it - because we keep rewarding them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,165

    Is the ELBOW chart based on GB or UK polling?
    GB I assume but Sunil will be able to confirm it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    According to Wiki the first YouGov MRP for GE17 was conducted 23-29 May and first issued, I believe, on 30 May 2017. So just 9 days before the election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model

    We'll need to wait until 3 December if they replicate those timescales, this time.
    A you gov bod tweeted it would be two weeks before the election.

    No, I cannot find that tweet right now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,165

    According to Wiki the first YouGov MRP for GE17 was conducted 23-29 May and first issued, I believe, on 30 May 2017. So just 9 days before the election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#YouGov_model

    We'll need to wait until 3 December if they replicate those timescales, this time.
    I hope they release it earlier this time.
  • Airbus have already committed to North Wales. Not an issue, neither do I see Holyhead as an issue
    With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.

    I am only saying no deal becomes more likely with a substantial majority and a stubborn EU. I do not want no deal but all conservative mps have signed the pledge to no deal if a deal is not agreed

    I have pretty well resigned myself to a Tory majority. The effect on both Holyhead and Fishguard is likely to be dramatic. Both places are shitholes and with even more unemployment if either loses Stenna you may just as well turn off the lights and leave now. I am worried as Fishguard is not far from me. I think you should be concerned too, about the effect of a hard or no brexit on the economy of Ynys Mon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,260
    edited November 2019
    I expect in the debate that Boris will announce half a dozen of the policies Labour was going to unveil in its Manifesto launch on Thursday. Plus he will cut interest on student loans to -1%. And a load of other mental shit. All in Latin.

    Corbyn will have lost his voice. He will squeak through it like he is on helium. After six minutes, he will lose it big style. There will be punches thrown at the camera man. He will scream that come the revolution, he will make this guy his personal foot-stool. The medics will come on and sedate him.

    Boris will spend the rest of the show chatting, whilst making a cup of tea.
  • Is that VAT exemption and EU rule or can it be changed by HMG if they so choose?
    Not sure. But remember at the moment the exemption means that schools don't have to charge VAT, but they can't recover the VAT they incur on expenditure on supplies. In practice that pushes up education costs in the private sector a little bit.

    If they did charge VAT you or I would pay 20% on top, but the school would get some VAT back, so the cost of education wouldn't increase 20%. We could look at making education a zero-rated supply (so they charge 0% VAT and get the VAT they spend back) but I don't think you could do that under the EU VAT Directive. Not 100% sure though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,139
    nunu2 said:

    He's Bernie/Corbyn supporter but his model was very spon on in 2017? So I dont know. Private pensions
    If they were to bring back an optional defined benefit state second pension, SERPS for the 21st Century, then I think that could be a lot more popular than most rubbish company pension schemes (though also fabulously expensive for the government).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353

    I expect in the debate that Boris will announce half a dozen of the policies Labour was going to unveil in its Manifesto launch on Thursday. Plus he will cut interest on student loans to -1%. And a load of other mental shit. All in Latin.

    Corbyn will have lost his voice. He will squeak through it like he is on helium. After six minutes, he will lose it big style. There will be punches thrown at the camera man. He will scream that come the revolution, he will make this guy his personal foot-stool. The medics will come on and sedate him.

    Boris will spend the rest of the show chatting, whilst making a cup of tea.

    Well it would make for more interesting television.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,185

    Not sure. But remember at the moment the exemption means that schools don't have to charge VAT, but they can't recover the VAT they incur on expenditure on supplies. In practice that pushes up education costs in the private sector a little bit.

    If they did charge VAT you or I would pay 20% on top, but the school would get some VAT back, so the cost of education wouldn't increase 20%. We could look at making education a zero-rated supply (so they charge 0% VAT and get the VAT they spend back) but I don't think you could do that under the EU VAT Directive. Not 100% sure though.
    I wouldn't pay 20% on top because a) I have no children and b) if I did I wouldn't send them to private school.
  • I wouldn't pay 20% on top because a) I have no children and b) if I did I wouldn't send them to private school.
    I knew you'd say that. In my defence, that includes further education, which plenty of people pay for
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope they release it earlier this time.
    They need the full named list for each constituency plus at least a weeks worth of interviews and I believe they want two weeks.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope they release it earlier this time.
    They need the full named list for each constituency plus at least a weeks worth of interviews and I believe they want two weeks.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,139

    I expect in the debate that Boris will announce half a dozen of the policies Labour was going to unveil in its Manifesto launch on Thursday. Plus he will cut interest on student loans to -1%. And a load of other mental shit. All in Latin.

    Corbyn will have lost his voice. He will squeak through it like he is on helium. After six minutes, he will lose it big style. There will be punches thrown at the camera man. He will scream that come the revolution, he will make this guy his personal foot-stool. The medics will come on and sedate him.

    Boris will spend the rest of the show chatting, whilst making a cup of tea.

    One of the advantages of a head-to-head for Johnson is that it will give Corbyn more time to get into his ranty stride.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,806
    Pretty sure it's been updated at it now shows a couple of blue dots at 45% which weren't there before.

    However updated it must have forgotten to update the text to 17th November,
  • It will be interesting to see if there is the enthusiasm for these dates as there was in 2015.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,260
    Seriously kicking off in Hong Kong tonight.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    edited November 2019

    Seriously kicking off in Hong Kong tonight.

    The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Pretty sure it's been updated at it now shows a couple of blue dots at 45% which weren't there before.

    However updated it must have forgotten to update the text to 17th November,
    If you see the full details you can see it was updated today, so I think that must be right
  • If you see the full details you can see it was updated today, so I think that must be right
    Looking at their trend line, I wonder what “seriously underwhelming” looks like for the LibDems? Less than 20? Would be bit in historical terms but might feel like failure.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,139
    Gabs3 said:

    The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.
    We thought that helping them to become rich would make them more democratic like us - but it hasn't.

    Not a clue what we should do now.
  • valleyboy said:

    With respect Big_G you appear to have your fingers in your ears and be saying na-na-na-na-nah loudly to block out the reality of what a potential exit on WTO terms would mean.
    I am only saying no deal becomes more likely with a substantial majority and a stubborn EU. I do not want no deal but all conservative mps have signed the pledge to no deal if a deal is not agreed

    I have pretty well resigned myself to a Tory majority. The effect on both Holyhead and Fishguard is likely to be dramatic. Both places are shitholes and with even more unemployment if either loses Stenna you may just as well turn off the lights and leave now. I am worried as Fishguard is not far from me. I think you should be concerned too, about the effect of a hard or no brexit on the economy of Ynys Mon.

    Holyhead will always be a busy seaport to Ireland. No one seriously thinks the Irish sea ferries will disappear
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,139

    Looking at their trend line, I wonder what “seriously underwhelming” looks like for the LibDems? Less than 20? Would be bit in historical terms but might feel like failure.
    They went into the election with 21 MPs. If they come out of the election with fewer then it's quite ropey, particularly as that would likely be combined with all the MPs who defected to them losing their seats. Hardly likely to encourage any future defections.
  • They went into the election with 21 MPs. If they come out of the election with fewer then it's quite ropey, particularly as that would likely be combined with all the MPs who defected to them losing their seats. Hardly likely to encourage any future defections.
    But to be fair to them the “real” line is the 12 from last time isn’t it? Their electoral coalition is now different and they are sort of starting from scratch. But that won’t matter to perceptions and I suspect you’re right. On the numbers we are seeing, I don’t see how they can be seen as anything but losers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Gabs3 said:

    The Chinese government is terrible. In a moral world everyone would boycott them but the powers that be put money over people every time.
    Or give them a free pass because whatever their faults, they aren't Jewish.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,139

    But to be fair to them the “real” line is the 12 from last time isn’t it? Their electoral coalition is now different and they are sort of starting from scratch. But that won’t matter to perceptions and I suspect you’re right. On the numbers we are seeing, I don’t see how they can be seen as anything but losers.
    Their starting point is 12, but after the renaissance they've had this year a modest step forward from 12 would be underwhelming - and would make it hard for them to have an impact.

    At one point I thought they had a decent chance of becoming the third party in seats again - which would have given them more questions at PMQs, and generally greater Parliamentary prominence. A modest step forward doesn't seem to match up to the opportunities that should be available given the tumultuous year that we've had.
  • Is the ELBOW chart based on GB or UK polling?
    Only Survation is UK. All other pollsters do GB polling.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,977
    Will there be a post debate poll.

    And if so can people put aside their personal views and be objective .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    nico67 said:

    Will there be a post debate poll.

    And if so can people put aside their personal views and be objective .

    Of course people can. Which people? The general public? Me? You?
This discussion has been closed.