The Scottish National Gallery of Modern Art should put on an exhibition of Lib Dem literature, with focus on the art of the bar chart. These are the works of highly creative fantasists. Post-surreal.
Or maybe a science and technology museum, focussing on the arithmetical, graphical and statistical crimes?
The Lib Dems lost their deposit in Edinburgh South at UK GE 2017: just 2.9% of the vote.
Looking forward to seeing a Tory rolling up their sleeves and getting out to speak to me on my doorstep. There's a first time for everything.
A sole Tory canvasser, who turned out to be Tory candidate, dropped by leafletting on the Isle of Wight, while visiting family. Not an unpleasant encounter, but a little disappointed to meet an extended family of Remainers. I got the impression from him that he wasn't keen on Brexit himself, but rather considered it an unpleasant duty. Maybe he was just tailoring his pitch to the audience.
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
The two polls with the eight point leads need to be adjusted for the BP not standing in over half the seats . So I think they’d show closer to a 10 point lead .
I’d ignore the Delta Poll that looks very dodgy .
The gender differential hasn’t been backed by any other poll and the very low Lib Dem figure looks like an outlier .
I’d factor in a better ground game for Labour as was shown from their last election at about 3% points .
Also the Lib Dems are more likely to underpoll than over on the day with around 2% moving back to Labour .
Although Momentum is much maligned it’s crucial for Labour , without them they wouldn’t have won Peterborough and they will be key in marginal seats .
In terms of the polls themselves I think the Tories have a healthy lead but the BP standing down is likely to distort their lead which will be inflated by increased majorities in many areas they were going to win anyway .
The question Labour waverers will have, is more of the same from the last 9 years less or more of a risk than something different under Corbyn?
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
Who knows what will happen this time.
That decision was an utter disaster for the country, so one can only hope they've learned their lesson this time and will choose a Tory majority to provide strong government.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
The Tories are a party led by someone who intends to remain PM and do whatever it takes to do so. At the moment his only chance of remaining PM is to adopt the position he has. There is no reason to think this will remain the case. A hard Brexit is not a good candidate for staying popular for long afterwards. If Boris had not fronted the Leave campaign the probability is that a chap called David Cameron, 2 years junior to Boris, would be PM now and one day they would be looking for a yonger replacement.
To me it really depends on how deep the Tory penetration is into the Northern and Midland leave labour areas. If they go Tory in sizeable numbers then Boris will need to govern to keep this "new" coalition of voters together. This means he can not agree to fom, current fishing quotas, because these voters want a hardish brexit.
I see lots of hardball next year between the 2 sides, Boris not taking up the option of extending the transistion and then maybe a limited fudge deal or no deal.
While I think that's true of FoM, fishing quotas affect a tiny, tiny proportion of the population, and the biggest chunk of them are in Scotland. (Not only that, but two of the biggest five purchasers of British fishing licenses are North American firms, and the last thing the new government will want to do is pick a fight there.)
The question Labour waverers will have, is more of the same from the last 9 years less or more of a risk than something different under Corbyn?
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
Who knows what will happen this time.
That decision was an utter disaster for the country, so one can only hope they've learned their lesson this time and will choose a Tory majority to provide strong government.
With a massive majority, Johnson will deliver more of the same. And these voters know it.
The question Labour waverers will have, is more of the same from the last 9 years less or more of a risk than something different under Corbyn?
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
Who knows what will happen this time.
That decision was an utter disaster for the country, so one can only hope they've learned their lesson this time and will choose a Tory majority to provide strong government.
Who in their right mind wants a strong, right wing, Tory government?
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
The two polls with the eight point leads need to be adjusted for the BP not standing in over half the seats . So I think they’d show closer to a 10 point lead .
I’d ignore the Delta Poll that looks very dodgy .
The gender differential hasn’t been backed by any other poll and the very low Lib Dem figure looks like an outlier .
I’d factor in a better ground game for Labour as was shown from their last election at about 3% points .
Also the Lib Dems are more likely to underpoll than over on the day with around 2% moving back to Labour .
Although Momentum is much maligned it’s crucial for Labour , without them they wouldn’t have won Peterborough and they will be key in marginal seats .
In terms of the polls themselves I think the Tories have a healthy lead but the BP standing down is likely to distort their lead which will be inflated by increased majorities in many areas they were going to win anyway .
The BP standing will take enough Leavers votes from Labour to help the Tories win seats like Workington and Vale of Clywd they otherwise might not have won, much as the LDs will take enough Remainers votes from Labour to help the Tories win some London marginals like Kensington and Enfield Southgate they lost in 2017.
Labour's ground game is also overestimated, much of their data is not that scientific and Momentum turn off many swing voters, Momentum are good at getting out Labour's core vote not much more than that.
I wonder if the surge in Lib Dem vote in London seats (we need to see others) is because of Swinson's very clear "anti-Corbyn" pitch. She's made it very clear she won't support Corbyn - and I wonder if that will appeal to Tory Remainers who hate Corbyn but also hate Brexit.
A few seats go to the Lib Dems - and Johnson's strategy quickly runs into trouble.
The question Labour waverers will have, is more of the same from the last 9 years less or more of a risk than something different under Corbyn?
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
Who knows what will happen this time.
That decision was an utter disaster for the country, so one can only hope they've learned their lesson this time and will choose a Tory majority to provide strong government.
With a massive majority, Johnson will deliver more of the same. And these voters know it.
And without one, they still won't get their Labour freebies, but will get years more paralysis and drift, plus dependence on unreliable minor parties. I think voters will choose to avoid that fate this time around.
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
The two polls with the eight point leads need to be adjusted for the BP not standing in over half the seats . So I think they’d show closer to a 10 point lead .
I’d ignore the Delta Poll that looks very dodgy .
The gender differential hasn’t been backed by any other poll and the very low Lib Dem figure looks like an outlier .
I’d factor in a better ground game for Labour as was shown from their last election at about 3% points .
Also the Lib Dems are more likely to underpoll than over on the day with around 2% moving back to Labour .
Although Momentum is much maligned it’s crucial for Labour , without them they wouldn’t have won Peterborough and they will be key in marginal seats .
In terms of the polls themselves I think the Tories have a healthy lead but the BP standing down is likely to distort their lead which will be inflated by increased majorities in many areas they were going to win anyway .
The BP standing will take enough Leavers votes from Labour to help the Tories win seats like Workington and Vale of Clywd they otherwise might not have won, much as the LDs will take enough Remainers votes from Labour to help the Tories win some London marginals like Kensington and Enfield Southgate they lost in 2017.
Labour's ground game is also overestimated, much of their data is not that scientific and Momentum turn off many swing voters, Momentum are good at getting out Labour's core vote not much more than that.
Where do you think they got that last minute boost from . Most of the pollsters bar Survation under estimated Labour turnout , how do you think the ICM poll with a 12 point Tory lead got it so wrong . It wasn’t movement from other parties alone , Labour found around 3% extra voters on the day .
The Tories are hot favourites for a good majority , however don’t underestimate Momentum .
Could the Conservatives sneak through in Fife North East?
St Andrews students are probably more likely to be Conservative than students at any others in the country. There's probably a reasonable sized Brexit vote.
Conservative Leavers may have lent their vote to the LDs last time around, and they're not that far behind. Conservative Remainers may fear Corbyn more than Brexit.
On the other hand, the LDs can probably squeeze the Labour Unionist vote a little.
For the record, I suspect not, but it's certainly possible.
Definitely seems a recipe for an SNP hold if the unionist vote splits from last time.
My thought exactly. I’d love it if the SCons poured resources into North East Fife. But they won’t.
1. They hate the SNP more than they love power. 2. They can’t. All their money and activists are desperately needed in better prospects.
I struggle to understand how the Con lead over every other party increases, and yet their total seat number drops.
Yes indeed. We're all wary of polling and models now, since it seems impossible to tell beforehand which might be right, and though gut feel can be very wrong too and I do think it will be relatively close, even with inefficient voting and tactical voting it feels strange to see the vote share difference increase, yet seats go down as a result of tweaks.
Because they have a methological change. Their model based in Electoral Calculus, shows a change because EC have now modelled for tactical voting.
I think it's a bit of wishful thinking as 6.5 million tactical votes are already factored in from 2017. How much more tactical voting do they think their will be?
The Polling Industry hereby wishes it to be known that continuing large Conservative poll leads are Very Bad For Business as no-one is commissioning. Therefore, we will amend our methodologies on a random basis to make it look like things are getting much closer.
Any link between these polls and the final result is purely coincidental.
This model shows a very large Tory majority indeed.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
The Tories are a party led by someone who intends to remain PM and do whatever it takes to do so. At the moment his only chance of remaining PM is to adopt the position he has. There is no reason to think this will remain the case. A hard Brexit is not a good candidate for staying popular for long afterwards. If Boris had not fronted the Leave campaign the probability is that a chap called David Cameron, 2 years junior to Boris, would be PM now and one day they would be looking for a yonger replacement.
To me it really depends on how deep the Tory penetration is into the Northern and Midland leave labour areas. If they go Tory in sizeable numbers then Boris will need to govern to keep this "new" coalition of voters together. This means he can not agree to fom, current fishing quotas, because these voters want a hardish brexit.
I see lots of hardball next year between the 2 sides, Boris not taking up the option of extending the transistion and then maybe a limited fudge deal or no deal.
While I think that's true of FoM, fishing quotas affect a tiny, tiny proportion of the population, and the biggest chunk of them are in Scotland. (Not only that, but two of the biggest five purchasers of British fishing licenses are North American firms, and the last thing the new government will want to do is pick a fight there.)
Fishing quotas were always something of a red herring, but with FoM the world's your oyster.
We haven't explored (in detail) yet what a large Tory majority might mean for the final Brexit deal.
Personally, I think it may allow Johnson to compromise more with the EU (who will also know he has the votes for an 'alternative economic model' too, and thus be able to drive a slightly better bargain) and a closer Brexit overall.
I think the risk of No Deal is far greater with a Tory majority of 10. It's just it will happen in December 2020 rather than January 2020.
By my calculation, depending on where these new voter registrations are, it could make quite a lot of difference.
If 500,000 people have registered to vote (is this the figure I saw?) and I assume even half of them are new voters, that's 250,000/650 = 384 people more per constituency.
It doesn't sound a lot but bearing in mind some of the margins, it could make a lot of difference.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
He will try and thread the needle between remaining resolutely EU-sceptic enough for his own backbenches, and the EU-centric enough to avoid any short-term shock to the economy. I do genuinely believe he sees a UK-US FTA as a way out, although I think even with a 150 majority he'll struggle to see it through.
My guess is that he will end up being a poor Prime Minister. He will be all short term tactics, and no long term strategy. He'll splurge cash, and leave the country in greater hock than before, and this will of course worsen the trade deficit. At some point - probably before the end of the next Parliament - this will come home to haunt him.
Don't forget he's splurging the cash [at limited targets] now before an election. Cameron before both elections he fought chose targets to splurge cash at, as did May. Even Osborne at every budget even when there was no election found a bauble or two to splurge on. Debt-to-GDP is falling now so there is room to splurge a bit more.
Doesn't mean post-election splurging will continue though. If the spending commitments are met but spending on other areas is kept under control then that should be OK.
There's fiscal loosening equivalent to 1.6% of GDP next year. Outside of the aftermath of the the Global Financial Crisis, that's the biggest fiscal stimulus since the Second World War.
Now, it may turn out to be brilliant timing, if the world tips into recession and he's basically turned the taps in advance. But it may also have the opposite effect, increasing our foreign indebtedness before a slowdown. We shall see. I'm more pessimistic than you.
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
The two polls with the eight point leads need to be adjusted for the BP not standing in over half the seats . So I think they’d show closer to a 10 point lead .
I’d ignore the Delta Poll that looks very dodgy .
The gender differential hasn’t been backed by any other poll and the very low Lib Dem figure looks like an outlier .
I’d factor in a better ground game for Labour as was shown from their last election at about 3% points .
Also the Lib Dems are more likely to underpoll than over on the day with around 2% moving back to Labour .
Although Momentum is much maligned it’s crucial for Labour , without them they wouldn’t have won Peterborough and they will be key in marginal seats .
In terms of the polls themselves I think the Tories have a healthy lead but the BP standing down is likely to distort their lead which will be inflated by increased majorities in many areas they were going to win anyway .
The BP standing will take enough Leavers votes from Labour to help the Tories win seats like Workington and Vale of Clywd they otherwise might not have won, much as the LDs will take enough Remainers votes from Labour to help the Tories win some London marginals like Kensington and Enfield Southgate they lost in 2017.
Labour's ground game is also overestimated, much of their data is not that scientific and Momentum turn off many swing voters, Momentum are good at getting out Labour's core vote not much more than that.
Where do you think they got that last minute boost from . Most of the pollsters bar Survation under estimated Labour turnout , how do you think the ICM poll with a 12 point Tory lead got it so wrong . It wasn’t movement from other parties alone , Labour found around 3% extra voters on the day .
The Tories are hot favourites for a good majority , however don’t underestimate Momentum .
Survation's final poll had Tories 41% Labour 40%, it ended up Tories 43.5% and Labour 41% in GB, so Survation actually underestimated the Tories more than Labour.
Looking forward to seeing a Tory rolling up their sleeves and getting out to speak to me on my doorstep. There's a first time for everything.
A sole Tory canvasser, who turned out to be Tory candidate, dropped by leafletting on the Isle of Wight, while visiting family. Not an unpleasant encounter, but a little disappointed to meet an extended family of Remainers. I got the impression from him that he wasn't keen on Brexit himself, but rather considered it an unpleasant duty. Maybe he was just tailoring his pitch to the audience.
Was obviously feeling well mannered - he's a firm brexiteer.
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
Bad for the LDs though, but I think an underestimate. The LD vote will be quite efficient imo and gain Labour tactical votes.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
He was a pro-EU, pro-business Mayor of London. I voted for him. I feel I was conned. Chances are those that vote for him in future will feel the same.
Do people here have a sense of how they think the polls are doing? Completely wrong? Almost spot on?
The two polls with the eight point leads need to be adjusted for the BP not standing in over half the seats . So I think they’d show closer to a 10 point lead .
I’d ignore the Delta Poll that looks very dodgy .
The gender differential hasn’t been backed by any other poll and the very low Lib Dem figure looks like an outlier .
I’d factor in a better ground game for Labour as was shown from their last election at about 3% points .
Also the Lib Dems are more likely to underpoll than over on the day with around 2% moving back to Labour .
Although Momentum is much maligned it’s crucial for Labour , without them they wouldn’t have won Peterborough and they will be key in marginal seats .
In terms of the polls themselves I think the Tories have a healthy lead but the BP standing down is likely to distort their lead which will be inflated by increased majorities in many areas they were going to win anyway .
The BP standing will take enough Leavers votes from Labour to help the Tories win seats like Workington and Vale of Clywd they otherwise might not have won, much as the LDs will take enough Remainers votes from Labour to help the Tories win some London marginals like Kensington and Enfield Southgate they lost in 2017.
Labour's ground game is also overestimated, much of their data is not that scientific and Momentum turn off many swing voters, Momentum are good at getting out Labour's core vote not much more than that.
Where do you think they got that last minute boost from . Most of the pollsters bar Survation under estimated Labour turnout , how do you think the ICM poll with a 12 point Tory lead got it so wrong . It wasn’t movement from other parties alone , Labour found around 3% extra voters on the day .
The Tories are hot favourites for a good majority , however don’t underestimate Momentum .
Survation's final poll had Tories 41% Labour 40%, it ended up Tories 43.5% and Labour 41% in GB, so Survation actually underestimated the Tories more than Labour.
Within MOE though, they got it right.
They also got 2015 right
And the EU referendum
They got the EU Elections wrong
But they have a decent track record - and Damian from Survation (based on Twitter) seems sceptical about the latest polls.
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
Bad for the LDs though, but I think an underestimate. The LD vote will be quite efficient imo and gain Labour tactical votes.
The main takeaway here is that the opposition vote is becoming more efficient - in his model at least.
The question Labour waverers will have, is more of the same from the last 9 years less or more of a risk than something different under Corbyn?
In 2017, against all odds (it seemed at the time), they decided they'd rather a socialist with big policies (at the time) than Theresa May promising to get Brexit done.
Who knows what will happen this time.
That decision was an utter disaster for the country, so one can only hope they've learned their lesson this time and will choose a Tory majority to provide strong government.
With a massive majority, Johnson will deliver more of the same. And these voters know it.
And without one, they still won't get their Labour freebies, but will get years more paralysis and drift, plus dependence on unreliable minor parties. I think voters will choose to avoid that fate this time around.
Choosing the better bet of two idiots is not a choice, neither deserve a majority, they need each other as any symbiotic relationship needs the other. Time to break free and leave the two failed discredited parties and their leaders behind.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
It was not so much the writing of the articles as the suggestion he might easily have chosen the other one
Many individual voters were split 52/48 in their minds, just as the aggregate was. That's why a significant number of Remainers (not the die-hard variety) will vote for Johnson to keep Corbyn out. They (we) may have voted Remain on the day but they won't gamble their impaired prosperity in the hope of revocation, if the downside is Venezuela.
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
YouGov today has the Tories up to 27% in Scotland with the SNP on 43%, that would see the Tories hold 8 seats in Scotland not 3.
YouGov also has the Tories just 1% behind Labour in London on 38% to 39% and in the North on 37% to 38%.
Interesting article thank you. But Brexit is not only or much about the act of legally leaving. IMHO we can in fact place on one side as being close to zero the chance of leaving the EU without a deal. There is no parliament or government however constituted which will in fact countenance it following this election.
Which means that there are only two options in the short term, depending on the result of the election: Ref2 (and then IMO remain) or Boris's deal. But for all the huffing and puffing the deal only gets us to the transition period, promised by Boris to be over by December 2020, but obviously that is untrue and can be ignored.
At the moment we legally leave absolutely everything changes. We can only have left if Boris has won the GE. If he wins he will only have two aims: to remain PM and win in 2024. At the moment we can have no idea what will be involved in the best plan for winning in 2024, but a hardish Brexit does not look a likely candidate. As Boris is at heart a Remainer I think there is a long way to travel once we are into the transition. And this will last I should think into 2022. For all we know the best plan by then to win in 2024 will be EFTA or rejoin.
We will never rejoin or even go for EFTA under the Tories. At best they extend the transition in pursuit of a bare bones FTA. At worse we crash out in a year. The Tories are a populist anti EU party and will remain so for decades. Oh, and I really hope Johnson isn't a Remainer, if he is then he truly is the most evil politician to have held high office in recent years.
Indeed, Boris will go into the election after next if he wins this won either with a Canada style FTA agreed with the EU or with one still being negotiated but having left the transition period, otherwise the Brexit Party might overtake the Tories again.
We will only rejoin the EU or even the EEA under a Labour or LD led government, especially the latter
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
It was not so much the writing of the articles as the suggestion he might easily have chosen the other one
Many individual voters were split 52/48 in their minds, just as the aggregate was. That's why a significant number of Remainers (not the die-hard variety) will vote for Johnson to keep Corbyn out. They (we) may have voted Remain on the day but they won't gamble their impaired prosperity in the hope of revocation, if the downside is Venezuela.
Why do you see this as a binary choice . Corbyn is going to lose and lose badly, worse than 83. So people are free to vote how they want. There is no way labour will win.
Why didn't he just say "I've never screwed any of Epstein's girls" instead of saying "I was busy in Woking that day."?
The whole thing was totally unbelievable. The no sweating, quick google search shows bullshit, the I never wear those sort of clothes, quick google search shows bullshit, etc etc etc. I have no idea where the bar is in a club I used to visit fairly often.
Who is long term friends with somebody, regularly goes to their homes and has never ever been upstairs. Or goes to stay 4 days with a convicted paedo to just tell them I won't be speaking to you anymore (after not speaking to them for 4 years), when you are royalty and get a hotel room anywhere in the world.
The real curveball in the election is Labour City seats . We’ve often heard they can run up big majorities in those which can effect their voter efficiency .
However we could be seeing a double skew in national polls .
Labours majorities are eaten into by the Lib Dems but they still hold the vast majority of those seats , and the Tories high Leave seats get bigger majorities because of the BP standing down .
So what you end up with is an increased Tory national share but nothing much changes in a vast swathe of seats . For this reason the point at which the Tories end up with a majority needs a bigger lead than normal .
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
Why didn't he just say "I've never screwed any of Epstein's girls" instead of saying "I was busy in Woking that day."?
The whole thing was totally unbelievable. The no sweating, quick google search shows bullshit, the I never wear those sort of clothes, quick google search shows bullshit, etc etc etc. I have no idea where the bar is in a club I used to visit fairly often.
Who is long term friends with somebody, regularly goes to their homes and has never ever been upstairs. Or goes to stay 4 days with a convicted paedo to just tell them I won't be speaking to you anymore (after not speaking to them for 4 years), when you are royalty and get a hotel room anywhere in the world.
My sense of this story is that most people don't care and it won't make much difference to anything, even if Twitter and the Chatterati are captivated.
The most common reactions I've detected is 'we've always known Prince Andrew is a prat', 'it's got nothing to do with the Queen', and 'anyway, what time is The Crown out?'.
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
YouGov today has the Tories up to 27% in Scotland with the SNP on 43%, that would see the Tories hold 8 seats in Scotland not 3.
YouGov also has the Tories just 1% behind Labour in London on 38% to 39% and in the North on 37% to 38%.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
Why didn't he just say "I've never screwed any of Epstein's girls" instead of saying "I was busy in Woking that day."?
The whole thing was totally unbelievable. The no sweating, quick google search shows bullshit, the I never wear those sort of clothes, quick google search shows bullshit, etc etc etc. I have no idea where the bar is in a club I used to visit fairly often.
Who is long term friends with somebody, regularly goes to their homes and has never ever been upstairs. Or goes to stay 4 days with a convicted paedo to just tell them I won't be speaking to you anymore (after not speaking to them for 4 years), when you are royalty and get a hotel room anywhere in the world.
My sense of this story is that most people don't care and it won't make much difference to anything, even if Twitter and the Chatterati are captivated.
The most common reactions I've detected is 'we've always known Prince Andrew is a prat', 'it's got nothing to do with the Queen', and 'anyway, what time is The Crown out?'.
Next.
Yes, you are probably right, its a bit like finding out Boris bonks around. No shit.
I was just commenting that it was incredible the story he tried to tell.
We haven't explored (in detail) yet what a large Tory majority might mean for the final Brexit deal.
Personally, I think it may allow Johnson to compromise more with the EU (who will also know he has the votes for an 'alternative economic model' too, and thus be able to drive a slightly better bargain) and a closer Brexit overall.
I think the risk of No Deal is far greater with a Tory majority of 10. It's just it will happen in December 2020 rather than January 2020.
There's more articles to be written on this for sure.
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
I think there's a lot of value in backing SCon holds, which you've spotted too and called out earlier today.
The market is still pricing it like the politics were in October.
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
It was not so much the writing of the articles as the suggestion he might easily have chosen the other one
Many individual voters were split 52/48 in their minds, just as the aggregate was. That's why a significant number of Remainers (not the die-hard variety) will vote for Johnson to keep Corbyn out. They (we) may have voted Remain on the day but they won't gamble their impaired prosperity in the hope of revocation, if the downside is Venezuela.
Why do you see this as a binary choice . Corbyn is going to lose and lose badly, worse than 83. So people are free to vote how they want. There is no way labour will win.
Corbyn is going to lose badly because many Remainers will cut their losses and vote Tory. What's the point in thinking "Corbyn can't win this one, but if I vote LD we might just get a hung parliament and then we can carry on with this crippling indecision."
The real curveball in the election is Labour City seats . We’ve often heard they can run up big majorities in those which can effect their voter efficiency .
However we could be seeing a double skew in national polls .
Labours majorities are eaten into by the Lib Dems but they still hold the vast majority of those seats , and the Tories high Leave seats get bigger majorities because of the BP standing down .
So what you end up with is an increased Tory national share but nothing much changes in a vast swathe of seats . For this reason the point at which the Tories end up with a majority needs a bigger lead than normal .
But YouGov found the opposite. That seats under 10k majority, Tories were doing even better than the headline figure.
However, I think you are sort of right, but if the Tories do win by 12%, they will have a decent majority. If I had a model telling me otherwise, I would be turning off and on again, to see if it fixed it.
The best part about Prince Andrew (For the Tories) is he has totally skewed attention away from the election, an Epstein sized dead cat on the table right now. Attention elsewhere = Good for the leaders.
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
As an exercise.
1.) No. Boris is seen as yesterday's man, a failure and too mistrusted after the loss of the 2016 referendum to be given a ministerial job. Now loathed by remained Britain and something of a figure of fun, in the early years following the referendum he attempted to make mischief from the backbenches as a Brexiteer tribune, but has since lost support as its fresher leading lights (Rees-Mogg, Baker, Patel) begin to see their own ambitions as being thwarted by Boris' hogging of the headlines. Instead Penny Mordaunt - a Brexiteer who is reconciled to the result but has promised to act like Thatcher and handbag the EU into reforms, using the rise of Salvini and others as leverage, pulls off a shock win against George Osborne in the Tory leadership contest.
2.) Yes. Labour MPs tried to pull off a coup after suffering disastrous results in the Copeland and Stoke by-elections in early 2017 and the subsequent locals. However, Yvette Cooper was defeated by the narrowest of margins. Corbyn survived, and his polling improved, resulting in better results in 2018 and some gains. However, this stalled in 2019, and there is talk of replacing him before the election with a 'compromise candidate'. But despite the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer and Tom Watson, in summer 2019, the John McDonnell rallies support, and unwilling to fight and lose another leadership election. Labour MPs back off, despite the coming EHRC report due in January - when a number of Labour MPs are planning to resign and start a new independent grouping.
3.) The Lib Dems quietly ditched Tim Farron in 2018 after failing to improve their polling, with Ed Davey now the leader having returned to parliament at the 2015 Richmond by-election. With Corbyn's Labour and Cameron's governement both unpopular the party is performing strongly in the polls - and there's talk of defectors or taking advantage of a seemingly inevitable Labour split.
4.) Nigel Farage is now one of Fox News and Breitbart's top paid commentators - with his show 'Last Orders with Farage' achieving record ratings in a late night slot thanks to its boozy take on the news and the banter between Farage and frequent guest Steve Hilton.
The best part about Prince Andrew (For the Tories) is he has totally skewed attention away from the election, an Epstein sized dead cat on the table right now.
Yes and no. It has wiped out Jezza, I hate NATO, open the borders, I am neither leave nor remain interview from this morning.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
The best part about Prince Andrew (For the Tories) is he has totally skewed attention away from the election, an Epstein sized dead cat on the table right now. Attention elsewhere = Good for the leaders.
Prince Andrew must owe Boris Johnson, like, a thousand favours.
18-30s did vote last time in greater numbers, but what killed the Tories from getting a majority is they lost their big leads among the middle aged middle class when they detonated the dementia tax plan.
The real curveball in the election is Labour City seats . We’ve often heard they can run up big majorities in those which can effect their voter efficiency .
However we could be seeing a double skew in national polls .
Labours majorities are eaten into by the Lib Dems but they still hold the vast majority of those seats , and the Tories high Leave seats get bigger majorities because of the BP standing down .
So what you end up with is an increased Tory national share but nothing much changes in a vast swathe of seats . For this reason the point at which the Tories end up with a majority needs a bigger lead than normal .
If the Brexit Party take enough votes in Labour Leave seats the Tories take many of them with little extra voteshare, in London Labour marginals like Kensington polling shows the LDs taking enough Labour votes for the Tories to win
The best part about Prince Andrew (For the Tories) is he has totally skewed attention away from the election, an Epstein sized dead cat on the table right now. Attention elsewhere = Good for the leaders.
Prince Andrew must owe Boris Johnson, like, a thousand favours.
Hmmm... That raises some interesting possibilities
Why didn't he just say "I've never screwed any of Epstein's girls" instead of saying "I was busy in Woking that day."?
The whole thing was totally unbelievable. The no sweating, quick google search shows bullshit, the I never wear those sort of clothes, quick google search shows bullshit, etc etc etc. I have no idea where the bar is in a club I used to visit fairly often.
Who is long term friends with somebody, regularly goes to their homes and has never ever been upstairs. Or goes to stay 4 days with a convicted paedo to just tell them I won't be speaking to you anymore (after not speaking to them for 4 years), when you are royalty and get a hotel room anywhere in the world.
My sense of this story is that most people don't care and it won't make much difference to anything, even if Twitter and the Chatterati are captivated.
The most common reactions I've detected is 'we've always known Prince Andrew is a prat', 'it's got nothing to do with the Queen', and 'anyway, what time is The Crown out?'.
Next.
Yes, you are probably right, its a bit like finding out Boris bonks around. No shit.
I was just commenting that it was incredible the story he tried to tell.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
Your experience matches mine.
But my experience also is that whilst they're luke warm on Corbyn at best, they really hate Johnson and the Tories. Like, really hate them.
I believe they're motivated to vote tactically where it matters - or more likely, they just won't bother to vote. Sadly.
Yesterday's polls have improved the Tory lead in the rolling average, as you would expect, but still lagging behind 2017...
Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 25 days ahead of GE19 = 12.8% Average Tory lead 25 days ahead of GE17 = 18.2%
The trend is totally different though for the Tories. Last time they were at 50% and heading down, while Labour picked up. This time they have been gaining, and widened the leader even with Labour gaining.
The best part about Prince Andrew (For the Tories) is he has totally skewed attention away from the election, an Epstein sized dead cat on the table right now.
Yes and no. It has wiped out Jezza, I hate NATO, open the borders, I am neither leave nor remain interview from this morning.
Didn't Boris speak up for Prince Andrew over the Epstein business?
Maybe I'm wrong and it was Andrew speaking up for Boris over the Acuri business. I find it hard to keep up sometimes.
Since when is holding 3 Scottish seats particularly bad for SCON when SLAB lose all but 1?
Because I wasn't commenting on SLAB? I said it was a particualrly bad SCON result, not particularly bad for SCON compared to anyone else - some recent predictions have been quite bullish for SCON so down to three would be bad, that doesn't speak to SLAB at all. Are you searching for things to get worked up about?
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
Your experience matches mine.
But my experience also is that whilst they're luke warm on Corbyn at best, they really hate Johnson and the Tories. Like, really hate them.
I believe they're motivated to vote tactically where it matters - or more likely, they just won't bother to vote. Sadly.
Why would young people vote Tory when they load them with £40-£50k of student debt, but continue to bung all the oldies every perk under the sun?
It's not hard to figure out. This dog will eventually bark (probably the next election rather than this one).
Why didn't he just say "I've never screwed any of Epstein's girls" instead of saying "I was busy in Woking that day."?
The whole thing was totally unbelievable. The no sweating, quick google search shows bullshit, the I never wear those sort of clothes, quick google search shows bullshit, etc etc etc. I have no idea where the bar is in a club I used to visit fairly often.
Who is long term friends with somebody, regularly goes to their homes and has never ever been upstairs. Or goes to stay 4 days with a convicted paedo to just tell them I won't be speaking to you anymore (after not speaking to them for 4 years), when you are royalty and get a hotel room anywhere in the world.
My sense of this story is that most people don't care and it won't make much difference to anything, even if Twitter and the Chatterati are captivated.
The most common reactions I've detected is 'we've always known Prince Andrew is a prat', 'it's got nothing to do with the Queen', and 'anyway, what time is The Crown out?'.
Next.
Yes, you are probably right, its a bit like finding out Boris bonks around. No shit.
I was just commenting that it was incredible the story he tried to tell.
Fair enough.
I could talk about episode 2 of the Mandalorian instead if you like :-)
That is some forecast! Only 3 Scottish Tory Holds, but the astonishing thing is that one of the three predicted holds is Aberdeen South! Current best Con price there is a tasty 2/1.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
YouGov today has the Tories up to 27% in Scotland with the SNP on 43%, that would see the Tories hold 8 seats in Scotland not 3.
YouGov also has the Tories just 1% behind Labour in London on 38% to 39% and in the North on 37% to 38%.
The Sunday Times reported today that SCons estimates of holds has gone up from about three last month to about eight now.
So that chimes.
Indeed, while Stirling; Gordon; Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock; Ochil and South Perthshire and Angus look likely SNP gains and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine; Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk look likely Tory holds, Dunfries and Galloway, Aberdeen South, Banff and Buchan, Renfrewshire East and Moray look neck and neck between the Tories and SNP, even now leaning Tory http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
Yes, it'll be massively popular.
And totally unrealistic....given all the other spending promised. But in for a 100 billion, in for a trillion.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
Your experience matches mine.
But my experience also is that whilst they're luke warm on Corbyn at best, they really hate Johnson and the Tories. Like, really hate them.
I believe they're motivated to vote tactically where it matters - or more likely, they just won't bother to vote. Sadly.
Why would young people vote Tory when they load them with £40-£50k of student debt, but continue to bung all the oldies every perk under the sun?
It's not hard to figure out. This dog will eventually bark (probably the next election rather than this one).
My point is that they hate the Tories but they don't bother to come out to vote!
If Jezza promised to cancel student debt, be interesting what the 50% of kids who don't go to uni think about having to pay much higher taxes to fund this.
I'm also a bit confused about this idea - as of now - Corbyn's appeal to the young has died. "It doesn't feel like last time" many say.
But at this time in the last election (being at a university campus at the time, I had a good insight, I would like to think) it felt exactly the same, utterly hopeless.
It wasn't until the manifesto launched, that things started to change.
Now it may well be different this time - but it's really too early to conclude much, I think.
If Jezza promised to cancel student debt, be interesting what the 50% of kids who don't go to uni think about having to pay much higher taxes to fund this.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
Your experience matches mine.
But my experience also is that whilst they're luke warm on Corbyn at best, they really hate Johnson and the Tories. Like, really hate them.
I believe they're motivated to vote tactically where it matters - or more likely, they just won't bother to vote. Sadly.
Why would young people vote Tory when they load them with £40-£50k of student debt, but continue to bung all the oldies every perk under the sun?
It's not hard to figure out. This dog will eventually bark (probably the next election rather than this one).
My point is that they hate the Tories but they don't bother to come out to vote!
Because they are also unenthused by the alternative, Corbyn, or feel their vote will make no difference elsewhere?
18-30s did vote last time in greater numbers, but what killed the Tories from getting a majority is they lost their big leads among the middle aged middle class when they detonated the dementia tax plan.
Yes, even Ed Miliband won 18-35s, it was the 40-50 vote going Labour that lost the Tories their majority, Boris has now got the Tories leading with that middle aged group again which could be crucial
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
Yes, it'll be massively popular.
And totally unrealistic....given all the other spending promised. But in for a 100 billion, in for a trillion.
Why would a plan being totally unrealistic stop Corbyn? Why should he change the habits of 55 years merely to annoy a group of people whose votes he is grubbing, er, campaigning for?
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
At risk of being a pedant, with a handful of exceptions born at exactly the same instant as you, everyone in the country, indeed, the planet, is 'above and below your age.'
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
If people between 18 and 30 could be bothered to vote, I think they'd swing this election.
My experience, which I appreciate is anecdotal, is that outside Labour held seats this group is swinging to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This means paradoxically it is inflating the Labour vote share and not the number of seats.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
Your experience matches mine.
But my experience also is that whilst they're luke warm on Corbyn at best, they really hate Johnson and the Tories. Like, really hate them.
I believe they're motivated to vote tactically where it matters - or more likely, they just won't bother to vote. Sadly.
Why would young people vote Tory when they load them with £40-£50k of student debt, but continue to bung all the oldies every perk under the sun?
It's not hard to figure out. This dog will eventually bark (probably the next election rather than this one).
My point is that they hate the Tories but they don't bother to come out to vote!
Because they are also unenthused by the alternative, Corbyn, or feel their vote will make no difference elsewhere?
Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.
So we will see what happens this time.
I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.
If Jezza promised to cancel student debt, be interesting what the 50% of kids who don't go to uni think about having to pay much higher taxes to fund this.
That's what other policies are there to handle.
Free everything for everybody and only working half a week....all paid for by a handful of billionaires.
In a counterfactual, where Remain won, Cameron would have stood down recently in advance of the May 2020 election, having promised not to run full term.
I wonder if Boris would be PM.
I wonder if Jeremy would be LOTO.
I wonder if Nick would have been leader of the 3rd largest party in the Commons.
I wonder of Nigel would have been around.
As an exercise.
1.) No. Boris is seen as yesterday's man, a failure and too mistrusted after the loss of the 2016 referendum to be given a ministerial job. Now loathed by remained Britain and something of a figure of fun, in the early years following the referendum he attempted to make mischief from the backbenches as a Brexiteer tribune, but has since lost support as its fresher leading lights (Rees-Mogg, Baker, Patel) begin to see their own ambitions as being thwarted by Boris' hogging of the headlines. Instead Penny Mordaunt - a Brexiteer who is reconciled to the result but has promised to act like Thatcher and handbag the EU into reforms, using the rise of Salvini and others as leverage, pulls off a shock win against George Osborne in the Tory leadership contest.
2.) Yes. Labour MPs tried to pull off a coup after suffering disastrous results in the Copeland and Stoke by-elections in early 2017 and the subsequent locals. However, Yvette Cooper was defeated by the narrowest of margins. Corbyn survived, and his polling improved, resulting in better results in 2018 and some gains. However, this stalled in 2019, and there is talk of replacing him before the election with a 'compromise candidate'. But despite the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer and Tom Watson, in summer 2019, the John McDonnell rallies support, and unwilling to fight and lose another leadership election. Labour MPs back off, despite the coming EHRC report due in January - when a number of Labour MPs are planning to resign and start a new independent grouping.
3.) The Lib Dems quietly ditched Tim Farron in 2018 after failing to improve their polling, with Ed Davey now the leader having returned to parliament at the 2015 Richmond by-election. With Corbyn's Labour and Cameron's governement both unpopular the party is performing strongly in the polls - and there's talk of defectors or taking advantage of a seemingly inevitable Labour split.
4.) Nigel Farage is now one of Fox News and Breitbart's top paid commentators - with his show 'Last Orders with Farage' achieving record ratings in a late night slot thanks to its boozy take on the news and the banter between Farage and frequent guest Steve Hilton.
MJW you are the king of the counterfactual. Fabulous stuff. I could well imagine Ms M as the heir to Mrs T.
'Gathering last weekend for the traditional Remembrance Day commemorations, I hear things were rather tense among the former premiers as they met for a cup of coffee at the Foreign Office beforehand. 'John Major basically blanked David Cameron and Theresa May and would only talk to his fellow anti-Brexit chums Tony Blair and Gordon Brown,' says my mole. 'The three of them were huddled together whispering and ignoring everyone else.'
After helping to contribute to Boris Johnson's Supreme Court humiliation in September, Sir John has even less time for the current Prime Minister. 'Major has made no secret of the fact that he loathes Johnson because of Brexit and just scowled at him.
In fact, things got so bad that it was left to Theresa May to try to initiate some small talk, and everyone was clearly relieved as the clock ticked towards 11am and they could troop to the Cenotaph for the wreath-laying.'
One always has to remember that when he acts like the Gary Linker of the ex-PMs club.
John Major used to be my favourite living ex PM, he has now plummeted down the rankings behind Cameron, May, even Blair for me, though he just pips Brown still
I don't think Johnson is anything in particular. He did, after all, write two impassioned articles - one in favour of staying and one in favour of leaving.
I don't know why people think this proves so much. It is good practice to set out the pros and cons of each side of a big decision on paper, regardless of how strongly you feel to one side or the other. I would advocate it in business and personal life. It is actually one of the few things that made me think better of Boris's seriousness, even though he came to the wrong conclusion. If only he was that thoughtful in all the rest of his decisions.
It was not so much the writing of the articles as the suggestion he might easily have chosen the other one
Many individual voters were split 52/48 in their minds, just as the aggregate was. That's why a significant number of Remainers (not the die-hard variety) will vote for Johnson to keep Corbyn out. They (we) may have voted Remain on the day but they won't gamble their impaired prosperity in the hope of revocation, if the downside is Venezuela.
Why do you see this as a binary choice . Corbyn is going to lose and lose badly, worse than 83. So people are free to vote how they want. There is no way labour will win.
Corbyn is going to lose badly because many Remainers will cut their losses and vote Tory. What's the point in thinking "Corbyn can't win this one, but if I vote LD we might just get a hung parliament and then we can carry on with this crippling indecision."
Corbyn is going to lose. Every body else can vote for who they want and so what I’d rather have both of the sidelined and years of stable crippling indecision than either with a majority, you are just using the fear of labour to advance the prospects of a liar and hypocrite.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
Yes, it'll be massively popular.
And totally unrealistic....given all the other spending promised. But in for a 100 billion, in for a trillion.
Why would a plan being totally unrealistic stop Corbyn? Why should he change the habits of 55 years merely to annoy a group of people whose votes he is grubbing, er, campaigning for?
Fair point, although you would hope it would get to a point where most people will think hmmm I don't think this is all actually possible.
I think it has to be nailed on (especially the polling over the weekend) that Labour promise to cancel student debt, medical weed, and massive council house building..and more. They are going to through every freebie possible and hope enough of it sticks.
I think it has to be nailed on (especially the polling over the weekend) that Labour promise to cancel student debt, medical weed, and massive council house building..and more. They are going to through every freebie possible and hope enough of it sticks.
That therefore begs the question - how do these undecideds split? Are they more likely to vote Tory or Labour or third party? Well, my instinct, which could be entirely wrong, is that they are probably slightly more Tory than Labour. Equally, however, I think fear of Corbyn will ultimately drive Tory waverers back to the blue camp, while Corbyn is currently doing little or nothing for disillusioned Labour voters.
The Labour vote has always been more tribal that any other, I suspect that there will be a large number of wavering Labour voters who will go back to Labour.
The question rattling around my head is how will the 18-35 vote hold up for Labour. There's certainly not the same kind of Messiah vibe around JC at this election (unlink 2017)
Expect the under 35s vote to return with a vengeance if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat with a plan to wipe out student debt.
Yes, it'll be massively popular.
And totally unrealistic....given all the other spending promised. But in for a 100 billion, in for a trillion.
Why would a plan being totally unrealistic stop Corbyn? Why should he change the habits of 55 years merely to annoy a group of people whose votes he is grubbing, er, campaigning for?
Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.
So we will see what happens this time.
I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.
How will they pay for it?
Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?
Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?
How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?
Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?
I think you're right, it's what they'll say.
But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.
What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...
Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.
So we will see what happens this time.
I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.
How will they pay for it?
Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?
Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?
How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?
Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?
I think you're right, it's what they'll say.
But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.
What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...
I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.
A notable distinction between 2017 and 2019 is the publicity given to polls in the MSM. Last time there was a constant meme about the coming 'Tory landslide', a factor which helped to galvanise Labour's comeback. Polls are of course once again meat and drink to the small (and very distinguished) membership of the PB community, but there is much less wider discussion of the same 'Tory landslide' which most of them again appear to portend.
Mr. Doethur, masterclass in driving by Verstappen today.
Anyway, I'm off.
Lecllerc won it for him - held Hamilton up all through S2 then have Max the wave past right at the start of the straight. If Hamilton held on to his undercut gain it would have been identical with roles reversed (until the WWE safety care nonsense)
I think it has to be nailed on (especially the polling over the weekend) that Labour promise to cancel student debt, medical weed, and massive council house building..and more. They are going to through every freebie possible and hope enough of it sticks.
Are the IFS still doing their costings?
There were going to, but they started to look at Labour's offering and found there aren't enough zeros on their calculators to add it all up.
A notable distinction between 2017 and 2019 is the publicity given to polls in the MSM. Last time there was a constant meme about the coming 'Tory landslide', a factor which helped to galvanise Labour's comeback. Polls are of course meat and drink to the small (and very distinguished) members of the PB community, but there is much less wider discussion of the same 'Tory landslide' which most of them again appear to portend.
There is a point, and we may be past it, where Labour promises so much to so many that the vast majority stops listening.
There is a danger, picked up in the Stoke / Bolton / West Brom focus group, where people went of course it is horseshit, they will never pay for all that, but arrhh f##k it, why not, even if we only get half of all the sweeties, what's the worst that could happen, we aren't going to become a communist country.
When politicians talk this massive numbers, the general public just see it all as "a lot" and nothing more really. £1bn, £10bn or £100bn it all blurs into the same.
Well they were enthused last time. But only when the manifesto came out.
So we will see what happens this time.
I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.
How will they pay for it?
Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?
Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?
How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?
Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?
I think you're right, it's what they'll say.
But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.
What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...
I am a big fan of just having an extra 0.5% on income tax for graduates, or whatever level meets the requirement for university funding.
I paid for my own degree whilst working full time.
Comments
The Scottish National Gallery of Modern Art should put on an exhibition of Lib Dem literature, with focus on the art of the bar chart. These are the works of highly creative fantasists. Post-surreal.
Or maybe a science and technology museum, focussing on the arithmetical, graphical and statistical crimes?
The Lib Dems lost their deposit in Edinburgh South at UK GE 2017: just 2.9% of the vote.
Best prices - Edinburgh South
Lab 2/7
SNP 3/1
Con 50/1
LD 50/1
I’d ignore the Delta Poll that looks very dodgy .
The gender differential hasn’t been backed by any other poll and the very low Lib Dem figure looks like an outlier .
I’d factor in a better ground game for Labour as was shown from their last election at about 3% points .
Also the Lib Dems are more likely to underpoll than over on the day with around 2% moving back to Labour .
Although Momentum is much maligned it’s crucial for Labour , without them they wouldn’t have won Peterborough and they will be key in marginal seats .
In terms of the polls themselves I think the Tories have a healthy lead but the BP standing down is likely to distort their lead which will be inflated by increased majorities in many areas they were going to win anyway .
Labour's ground game is also overestimated, much of their data is not that scientific and Momentum turn off many swing voters, Momentum are good at getting out Labour's core vote not much more than that.
A few seats go to the Lib Dems - and Johnson's strategy quickly runs into trouble.
(The other two SCon survivors would be DCT and neighbouring Berwickshire et al. Which will shock no-one.)
The Tories are hot favourites for a good majority , however don’t underestimate Momentum .
1. They hate the SNP more than they love power.
2. They can’t. All their money and activists are desperately needed in better prospects.
Not a bad track record as well.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LTossup/status/1195844405300793344
We haven't explored (in detail) yet what a large Tory majority might mean for the final Brexit deal.
Personally, I think it may allow Johnson to compromise more with the EU (who will also know he has the votes for an 'alternative economic model' too, and thus be able to drive a slightly better bargain) and a closer Brexit overall.
I think the risk of No Deal is far greater with a Tory majority of 10. It's just it will happen in December 2020 rather than January 2020.
By my calculation, depending on where these new voter registrations are, it could make quite a lot of difference.
If 500,000 people have registered to vote (is this the figure I saw?) and I assume even half of them are new voters, that's 250,000/650 = 384 people more per constituency.
It doesn't sound a lot but bearing in mind some of the margins, it could make a lot of difference.
I honestly believe, if the young (people above and below my age) could all be bothered to vote, they'd swing this election.
Now, it may turn out to be brilliant timing, if the world tips into recession and he's basically turned the taps in advance. But it may also have the opposite effect, increasing our foreign indebtedness before a slowdown. We shall see. I'm more pessimistic than you.
They also got 2015 right
And the EU referendum
They got the EU Elections wrong
But they have a decent track record - and Damian from Survation (based on Twitter) seems sceptical about the latest polls.
I was polled by YouGov tonight.
YouGov also has the Tories just 1% behind Labour in London on 38% to 39% and in the North on 37% to 38%.
In the South the Tories have a huge 53% to 21% lead over the second placed LDs and in the Midlands and Wales the Tories also have a big lead on 50% with Labour second on 30%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4eowzxp8kz/TheSundayTimes_VI_Results_191115_noGEXMAS_w.pdf
. Corbyn is going to lose and lose badly, worse than 83. So people are free to vote how they want. There is no way labour will win.
Who is long term friends with somebody, regularly goes to their homes and has never ever been upstairs. Or goes to stay 4 days with a convicted paedo to just tell them I won't be speaking to you anymore (after not speaking to them for 4 years), when you are royalty and get a hotel room anywhere in the world.
However we could be seeing a double skew in national polls .
Labours majorities are eaten into by the Lib Dems but they still hold the vast majority of those seats , and the Tories high Leave seats get bigger majorities because of the BP standing down .
So what you end up with is an increased Tory national share but nothing much changes in a vast swathe of seats . For this reason the point at which the Tories end up with a majority needs a bigger lead than normal .
Moreover, the goalposts move as you age. When I was 21, people over 25 seemed ancient. Now I'm 36, I consider everyone below about 40 to be young. Should I get to 50, no doubt I will say you're not middle aged until 55.
I think you're going to have to be more specific here. Which demographic are you talking about?
The most common reactions I've detected is 'we've always known Prince Andrew is a prat', 'it's got nothing to do with the Queen', and 'anyway, what time is The Crown out?'.
Next.
So that chimes.
I was just commenting that it was incredible the story he tried to tell.
The market is still pricing it like the politics were in October.
However, I think you are sort of right, but if the Tories do win by 12%, they will have a decent majority. If I had a model telling me otherwise, I would be turning off and on again, to see if it fixed it.
Unusual ending to the race.
One always has to remember that when he acts like the Gary Linker of the ex-PMs club.
1.) No. Boris is seen as yesterday's man, a failure and too mistrusted after the loss of the 2016 referendum to be given a ministerial job. Now loathed by remained Britain and something of a figure of fun, in the early years following the referendum he attempted to make mischief from the backbenches as a Brexiteer tribune, but has since lost support as its fresher leading lights (Rees-Mogg, Baker, Patel) begin to see their own ambitions as being thwarted by Boris' hogging of the headlines. Instead Penny Mordaunt - a Brexiteer who is reconciled to the result but has promised to act like Thatcher and handbag the EU into reforms, using the rise of Salvini and others as leverage, pulls off a shock win against George Osborne in the Tory leadership contest.
2.) Yes. Labour MPs tried to pull off a coup after suffering disastrous results in the Copeland and Stoke by-elections in early 2017 and the subsequent locals. However, Yvette Cooper was defeated by the narrowest of margins. Corbyn survived, and his polling improved, resulting in better results in 2018 and some gains. However, this stalled in 2019, and there is talk of replacing him before the election with a 'compromise candidate'. But despite the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer and Tom Watson, in summer 2019, the John McDonnell rallies support, and unwilling to fight and lose another leadership election. Labour MPs back off, despite the coming EHRC report due in January - when a number of Labour MPs are planning to resign and start a new independent grouping.
3.) The Lib Dems quietly ditched Tim Farron in 2018 after failing to improve their polling, with Ed Davey now the leader having returned to parliament at the 2015 Richmond by-election. With Corbyn's Labour and Cameron's governement both unpopular the party is performing strongly in the polls - and there's talk of defectors or taking advantage of a seemingly inevitable Labour split.
4.) Nigel Farage is now one of Fox News and Breitbart's top paid commentators - with his show 'Last Orders with Farage' achieving record ratings in a late night slot thanks to its boozy take on the news and the banter between Farage and frequent guest Steve Hilton.
It might swing a very few marginals like Canterbury, or Exeter (for a given value of 'marginal') or Cardiff Central, but there are only a small number of seats where their influence would be decisive.
Average Tory lead (last 6 polls) 25 days ahead of GE19 = 12.8%
Average Tory lead 25 days ahead of GE17 = 18.2%
But my experience also is that whilst they're luke warm on Corbyn at best, they really hate Johnson and the Tories. Like, really hate them.
I believe they're motivated to vote tactically where it matters - or more likely, they just won't bother to vote. Sadly.
Maybe I'm wrong and it was Andrew speaking up for Boris over the Acuri business. I find it hard to keep up sometimes.
You've gone nuts
It's not hard to figure out. This dog will eventually bark (probably the next election rather than this one).
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp
But at this time in the last election (being at a university campus at the time, I had a good insight, I would like to think) it felt exactly the same, utterly hopeless.
It wasn't until the manifesto launched, that things started to change.
Now it may well be different this time - but it's really too early to conclude much, I think.
So we will see what happens this time.
I predict Labour will pledge to wipe out all student debt.
Ironic that a race where everybody else seemed to crash was won by a man not so long ago known as Max the Crash'em.
Anyway, I'm off.
Will it only be student loan debt, or all student debt?
Will it include maintenance loans, or only tuition fees?
How far back will it go? Does mine from 20-odd years ago get wiped as well?
Will those who have paid it off, or part paid it off, get their payments refunded?
I think you're right, it's what they'll say.
But unless they can answer those questions, you should not assume it is what they'll do. All they will be looking for is a cheap(!) headline, not getting to grips with the appalling mess that is HE funding.
What we really need is a proper inquiry into academic and student funding, not led by a disgraced former oil exec and self-confessed perjurer, that comes up with a proper and sustainable system. The odds of this happening especially given the current distraction therapy of Brexit and the chaos of the current government are remote. As they are on transport, power generation, broadband...
When politicians talk this massive numbers, the general public just see it all as "a lot" and nothing more really. £1bn, £10bn or £100bn it all blurs into the same.
You can shove your 0.5% ..........