With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?
On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
In complete contrast to current the current herd.
There are a few posters here now who are so prolific and tribal that you have to wonder why they are doing it. It's certainly not for the betting, nor the debate, since they never engage in any meaningful way.
It's tempting to speculate that they too are rewarded in cash or kind, although it may just be they just find gratification in what they perceive as furthering the interests of The Tribe.
It's why paid astroturfing is dumb in politics, since enthusiastic amateurs are perfectly willing to support the messaging for free.
But personally I'm here to seek smug self satisfaction.
I don't think anybody here is a paid shill, it's just that people have hobbyhorses and here they get to ride them. Additionally, some posters are extraordinarily wealthy and don't need payment. I think there is a preponderance of former or current party members or activists, far more than the general public. Although I'm fairly sure me and @Sunil_Prasannan post here as part of the eternal journey towards the final battle between Star Wars and Star Trek fans...
...known as the Star Wars Star Trek Wars Trek[1]
I thank you.
[1] Yes, this joke is from "Futurama"
I suspect in the past we have had some. Previous elections we definitely had some newish posters who were totally on message at all times and would time and time again link to stuff that nobody would just stumble across by chance.
People asking why. Well at one point we had even the PM reading this site, and definitely MPs / journalists do (the number of times talking points / jokes have been ripped off is more than chance). If you can link to something that gets traction and repeated by a mainstream journalist etc, job done.
Now however there is the likes of theCanary for that, and we know Team Corbyn coordinates directly with these kind of sites and a select number of mainstream journalists.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
More broadly, I'm not convinced by the "it'll all be different once the old farts die off" narrative. It assumes that people's opinions and priorities become set in stone by the age of 25 and will never change as they themselves get older.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
More broadly, I'm not convinced by the "it'll all be different once the old farts die off" narrative. It assumes that people's opinions and priorities become set in stone by the age of 25 and will never change as they themselves get older.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
1997 was after a historic 18 Tory years in power, not matched by any party for over a century. The Tory achievement after 1979 was getting to 1997 and still in power not the result which in any case was still a defeat by the centre not the left
Local intelligence: the Tories will have to have a total meltdown not to take North Norfolk off the Lib Dems. Their vote here is based on the merits of the retiring incumbent, it is (I believe) the oldest constituency in the land, it's strongly Leave and the Tories have picked a local candidate.
Apparently you can get 7/2 on the Conservatives with William Hill. I'm (almost) tempted to sign up for an account just to stick a few hundred quid on at those odds. It looks very much like free money.
How much do you think incumbency is worth? a few percentage points? And with the Lib Dem vote rising nationwide, and the Conservative vote falling, and the Brexit Party standing, it doesn't feel like a Con gain to me. No local knowledge here for me, though, so happy to defer if you know of canvass returns telling a different story.
The squeeze on BXP in the polls looks about right. It's relatively marginal. It'll either help the Conservatives a little by taking never-Tory voters from Labour or it'll make no difference at all. Certainly not in this part of the world.
Incumbency can be very important, especially for the Libs - that goes back decades. The Clement Freud example immediately springs to mind. Lamb's majority was only 3,500 - his replacement will doubtless fight hard (they're currently in command of the district council,) but this is a Parliamentary election, in a seat that's old and strongly in favour of Brexit. The Conservatives should win with room to spare.
There is no squeeze available on TBP compared to 2017, because they/Ukip didn't stand there in 2017. TBP will take more votes off the Conservatives.
Local intelligence: the Tories will have to have a total meltdown not to take North Norfolk off the Lib Dems. Their vote here is based on the merits of the retiring incumbent, it is (I believe) the oldest constituency in the land, it's strongly Leave and the Tories have picked a local candidate.
Apparently you can get 7/2 on the Conservatives with William Hill. I'm (almost) tempted to sign up for an account just to stick a few hundred quid on at those odds. It looks very much like free money.
How much do you think incumbency is worth? a few percentage points? And with the Lib Dem vote rising nationwide, and the Conservative vote falling, and the Brexit Party standing, it doesn't feel like a Con gain to me. No local knowledge here for me, though, so happy to defer if you know of canvass returns telling a different story.
Re North Norfolk mentioned earlier. It will be close imo, Lamb had a big personal vote (quite rightly, excellent fellow) but there is significant LD council presence too. Certainly Holt the main market town will be solidly Tory as will second home centres like Blakeney but Cromer/Sheringham likely to be LD. I wouldn't want to lump on but it may well be the only con gain from LD.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Nicely put. There's a little Easter egg in the Times back catalogue for future historians. Almost the first thing Neil Kinnock did on losing in 1992 was get a letter off to the Times warning of the risk of going into the ERM at the wrong rate. It seemed an arcane point at the time, and I didn't even understand it when I read it. All became clear a few months later.
Don't ever believe the Tories are the ones who understand economics.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
Local intelligence: the Tories will have to have a total meltdown not to take North Norfolk off the Lib Dems. Their vote here is based on the merits of the retiring incumbent, it is (I believe) the oldest constituency in the land, it's strongly Leave and the Tories have picked a local candidate.
Apparently you can get 7/2 on the Conservatives with William Hill. I'm (almost) tempted to sign up for an account just to stick a few hundred quid on at those odds. It looks very much like free money.
How much do you think incumbency is worth? a few percentage points? And with the Lib Dem vote rising nationwide, and the Conservative vote falling, and the Brexit Party standing, it doesn't feel like a Con gain to me. No local knowledge here for me, though, so happy to defer if you know of canvass returns telling a different story.
The squeeze on BXP in the polls looks about right. It's relatively marginal. It'll either help the Conservatives a little by taking never-Tory voters from Labour or it'll make no difference at all. Certainly not in this part of the world.
Incumbency can be very important, especially for the Libs - that goes back decades. The Clement Freud example immediately springs to mind. Lamb's majority was only 3,500 - his replacement will doubtless fight hard (they're currently in command of the district council,) but this is a Parliamentary election, in a seat that's old and strongly in favour of Brexit. The Conservatives should win with room to spare.
There is no squeeze available on TBP compared to 2017, because they/Ukip didn't stand there in 2017. TBP will take more votes off the Conservatives.
My fault for being unclear: I was just making a general point about the Brexit Party. They might go through some sort of revival over the course of the campaign, but right now they look like roadkill. And certainty not strong enough to allow the Liberal Democrats to hang on with a substantially reduced share of the vote in this particular neck of the woods.
People around here liked Lamb and he indicated willingness to defy the whip and vote through the Deal. They're not getting any of that from his nominated replacement. Nothing is certain in life, but the Conservatives should be odds-on already. The race here is theirs to lose.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. .
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?
On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
In complete contrast to current the current herd.
There are a few posters here now who are so prolific and tribal that you have to wonder why they are doing it. It's certainly not for the betting, nor the debate, since they never engage in any meaningful way.
It's tempting to speculate that they too are rewarded in cash or kind, although it may just be they just find gratification in what they perceive as furthering the interests of The Tribe.
It's why paid astroturfing is dumb in politics, since enthusiastic amateurs are perfectly willing to support the messaging for free.
But personally I'm here to seek smug self satisfaction.
I don't think anybody here is a paid shill, it's just that people have hobbyhorses and here they get to ride them. Additionally, some posters are extraordinarily wealthy and don't need payment. I think there is a preponderance of former or current party members or activists, far more than the general public. Although I'm fairly sure me and @Sunil_Prasannan post here as part of the eternal journey towards the final battle between Star Wars and Star Trek fans...
...known as the Star Wars Star Trek Wars Trek[1]
I thank you.
[1] Yes, this joke is from "Futurama"
I suspect in the past we have had some. Previous elections we definitely had some newish posters who were totally on message at all times and would time and time again link to stuff that nobody would just stumble across by chance...
Fair point. Perhaps I should have said "they do happen, but they don't last long"
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Boris has made quite clear he will block indyref2 if he wins a majority and he still looks reasonable in comparison to the Spanish governments crackdown on Catalan nationalists. The Boris Deal also avoids No Deal which is the only circumstance Yes leads in most of the polls.
So if Boris wins the Union is secure for years and indeed it is not impossible to see the LDs start to win back SNP seats in rural and suburban central belt Scotland in the Holyrood 2021 elections depriving the SNP of their majority with the Greens, indeed YouGov last week had a swing from the SNP to the LDs.
Only if Corbyn wins and enables indyref2 for SNP support is the Union under threat in the next few years, though No would still probably win
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. .
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
Did it? Where's the evidence for that?
The economy grew by 3% a year, from 1993-97, unemployment dropped, and the trade deficit became a small surplus.
I wonder what Plato would have thought of PM Johnson?
On the evidence of her posts on this Site, Plato didn't have any thoughts of her own. She confined herself largely to reposting right-wing propaganda, presumably for payment in cash or kind.
In complete contrast to current the current herd.
There are a few posters here now who are so prolific and tribal that you have to wonder why they are doing it. It's certainly not for the betting, nor the debate, since they never engage in any meaningful way.
It's tempting to speculate that they too are rewarded in cash or kind, although it may just be they just find gratification in what they perceive as furthering the interests of The Tribe.
It's why paid astroturfing is dumb in politics, since enthusiastic amateurs are perfectly willing to support the messaging for free.
But personally I'm here to seek smug self satisfaction.
I don't think anybody here is a paid shill, it's just that people have hobbyhorses and here they get to ride them.
Yes, and a few people post with Absolute Certainty. This is an election which is still anything but.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. .
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
Did it? Where's the evidence for that?
The economy grew by 3% a year, from 1993-97, unemployment dropped, and the trade deficit became a small surplus.
But what would have happened had we not joined in the first place, or if the ERM had worked?
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
Greta Thunberg clones
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
I disagree with that, it was clear party and government split on what would be right policy.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. .
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
Did it? Where's the evidence for that?
The economy grew by 3% a year, from 1993-97, unemployment dropped, and the trade deficit became a small surplus.
But what would have happened had we not joined in the first place, or if the ERM had worked?
Had we not joined, in 1990, I expect that the recession of 1990-92 would have been milder, as interest rates would have been cut faster.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Boris has made quite clear he will block indyref2 if he wins a majority and he still looks reasonable in comparison to the Spanish governments crackdown on Catalan nationalists. The Boris Deal also avoids No Deal which is the only circumstance Yes leads in most of the polls.
So if Boris wins the Union is secure for years and indeed it is not impossible to see the LDs start to win back SNP seats in rural and suburban central belt Scotland in the Holyrood 2021 elections depriving the SNP of their majority with the Greens, indeed YouGov last week had a swing from the SNP to the LDs.
Only if Corbyn wins and enables indyref2 for SNP support is the Union under threat in the next few years, though No would still probably win
'We wont let you have a referendum even though we'd probably win it', part 148.
It's entertaining that many of the subscribers to the above pov are almost precisely those who endlessly whined about Labour cowardice in not enabling BJ's GE at the time of his choosing. As I constantly & no doubt tediously say, there are always rich pickings on here for collectors of human hypocrisy.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
More broadly, I'm not convinced by the "it'll all be different once the old farts die off" narrative. It assumes that people's opinions and priorities become set in stone by the age of 25 and will never change as they themselves get older.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
Johnson has some way to go before he beats Goderich (1827-28) as worst PM.
The disputed EM PM was Robert Banks Jenkinson, 2nd Earl of Liverpool (1812-27). The argument is whether his mother was born in India of purely English descent, or whether she was mixed race. My personal view is that she probably wasn't but I could easily be wrong.
Agree with most of the predictions above but I think the UUP could take North Down, they got 50% of the vote in 2005 when Hermon was last a UUP candidate.
I also think the Alliance will take Belfast South from the DUP though as you say the SDLP also have a chance having held the seat until 2017.
Don't bet on Bradshaw. The tactical voters have seen the Greens endorse Hanna and SF withdraw. They will go with Hanna to eject the DUP. She is also widely seen as semi-detached from the more conservative / Catholic / nationalist wing of the SDLP, unlike the last candidate, which will be a net positive for her candidacy versus 2017. She has a left profile. By contrast, Bradshaw is a former Tory. Do not bet on Bradshaw at current odds.
My fault for being unclear: I was just making a general point about the Brexit Party. They might go through some sort of revival over the course of the campaign, but right now they look like roadkill. And certainty not strong enough to allow the Liberal Democrats to hang on with a substantially reduced share of the vote in this particular neck of the woods.
People around here liked Lamb and he indicated willingness to defy the whip and vote through the Deal. They're not getting any of that from his nominated replacement. Nothing is certain in life, but the Conservatives should be odds-on already. The race here is theirs to lose.
I'm just not buying it. I'm trying to quantify the incumbency effect. This suggests you shouldn't be putting it at over 3 percentage points without good reason: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/may/04/incumbency-effect-impact-mps So if we take 3pp from the Lib Dems, and add them ALL to the Conservatives (which I think it's extremely dubious, but let's just for the sake of argument) that's 45.4-44.7 to the Lib Dems. Now remove 12% of the Tory vote for TBP, that's 5.4pp, and 1% of the Lib Dem vote, that's 44.9-39.3 to the Lib Dems. Next you'll want to factor in national swing. This is partially accounted for already with the Conservative to Brexit Party and Lib Dem to Brexit Party swing detailed above. I'll leave that exercise to you, but you have a 5.6pp gap to make up, and you have 10pp of Labour vote to use. Even if you think half of those Labour voters will turn Conservative and none of them go Lib Dem (we're getting into the realms of fantasy politics here), it still isn't enough. So you're relying on fictional swings, a Brexit Party effect that isn't borne out in polling at all (i.e. hurting the Lib Dems more than Conservatives), or a huge Lib Dem to Tory swing that goes way beyond normal incumbency effects and isn't borne out in the national polling (which shows a swing going the other way). The only thing that can make your prediction realistic is if you have constituency level polling or canvassing that proves something out of the ordinary is going on. If TBP steps aside, I'd revisit this narrative, but otherwise, save your money.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
And the real news is even worse for you!
And in real news Mark, a party that can’t even count ferry’s reckon they are best for counting penny’s 😁
Agree with most of the predictions above but I think the UUP could take North Down, they got 50% of the vote in 2005 when Hermon was last a UUP candidate.
I also think the Alliance will take Belfast South from the DUP though as you say the SDLP also have a chance having held the seat until 2017.
Don't bet on Bradshaw. The tactical voters have seen the Greens endorse Hanna and SF withdraw. They will go with Hanna to eject the DUP. She is also widely seen as semi-detached from the more conservative / Catholic / nationalist wing of the SDLP, unlike the last candidate, which will be a net positive for her candidacy versus 2017. She has a left profile. By contrast, Bradshaw is a former Tory. Do not bet on Bradshaw at current odds.
Moderate Unionists will vote for Bradshaw as will non sectarian voters, Belfast South is the Alliance's top target this time
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
But wasn’t he defacto leader during Derby’s administrations?
No, absolutely not. Leaving aside the fact the parliamentary party didn't trust him, unlike Derby he didn't have the money to be a successful leader until he was well into his sixties.
He was leader of the Commons, Chancellor of the Excheuqer and the architect of the Second Reform Act, but on all other matters he had to defer to Derby (and did even on spending matters).
I'm sorry,i can't think of North Norfolk without going "ah-haah". It's a tic.
Holt is the sort of place Partridge loves, full of mustard cord wearing Tory oafs
Poor Holt, it doesn't deserve this abuse. It's lovely. So there.
It is.
Are you sure Holt is rock solid tory? Whenever I've been there have been a plethora of arty types and two men walking hand-in-hand down the high st. I'm not even sure the Gresham's teachers would vote blue?
Burnham Market, on the other hand ... but then it falls into North-West Norfolk.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more der voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
More broadly, I'm not convinced by the "it'll all be different once the old farts die off" narrative. It assumes that people's opinions and priorities become set in stone by the age of 25 and will never change as they themselves get older.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
The Conservatives have pretty much guaranteed another 1997 for themselves through the way they have handled Brexit. They have alienated generations. The only question is when.
The only election that matters for now is on Dec 12th. Imagine how things would have turned out if John Major had lost in 92. We might have been spared Blair.
Great comparison. The Clown winning now is just going to reap a far greater storm in the future. Tories ought to pray for a modest beating now to escape a vegetative state in the foreseeable.
Had Kinnock won in 1992 it would have been an economic disaster for the country...
That's true. We might have joined the ERM at the wrong rate, wasted billions instead of a controlled devaluation, then crashed out chaotically and scaring people to within an inch of their lives.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
That plus huge tax rises too hammering the economy, more strikes and rising inflation
A good Guardian article describing how the economic and social changes which led to Brexit (which is of course no solution to them) exist across Europe:
“The city provides financiers, lawyers, designers, artists, culture, everything required to be a modern international hub. It has a monopoly on the high-end services that command the highest prices, and the rest of Italy has to pay those prices. In fashion it sits on top of a long global chain that has low-paid garment workers in Vietnam at the bottom. The problem is that this miracle in Milan only really involves the million or so people at its very heart. The city has shaken off the industrial hinterland that made it great in the 20th century. In the end this creates a problem of dignity for other places...
The idea that Britain should become the European Singapore is really no different, and no less idiotic than saying it should become Milan, or London.
An interesting article, thank you.
I liked the last line - “A city in a region, a region in a country.”
I'm sorry,i can't think of North Norfolk without going "ah-haah". It's a tic.
Holt is the sort of place Partridge loves, full of mustard cord wearing Tory oafs
Poor Holt, it doesn't deserve this abuse. It's lovely. So there.
It is.
Are you sure Holt is rock solid tory? Whenever I've been there have been a plethora of arty types and two men walking hand-in-hand down the high st. I'm not even sure the Gresham's teachers would vote blue?
Burnham Market, on the other hand ... but then it falls into North-West Norfolk.
Holt council seat is as blue as blue can be
Greshams is a pretendy public school. Not all that. Proper boys went to Norwich School (on the assisted places scheme)
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
If the polls as they stand are borne out the SW will be even worse for lab than usual and outside bristol they might get next to no seats, but even then Exeter would i think hold out.
Did it? I'm happy my point stands without having access to Lucas' bank balance, her earnings place her in a category well above the average and if she spaffs it all up the wall on pictures of trees that were felled before their time and scented candles it changes nothing of her hypocrisy. I'll take the socratic method from ancient Greeks, not net trolls
What is the point though?
That if you are a Green politician you should not fly?
Or if you do fly you should not be a Green politician?
Well, I don't think it is unreasonable to ask how often Lucas is flying? And whether those flights are really necessary?
Lucas is one of the most judgemental figures in modern politics, so I am not impressed with her response ("let's not sit in judgment on each other")
Clearly, it is hypocritical when touring rock stars take a heavily Green stance. Or Lewis Hamilton.
Their entire lifestyle (which after all is nothing very vital) is based around taking lots of international flights for themselves and their entourage.
Basically, you can't advocate vegetarianism if you are a prominent cannibal.
So that fits in with the Ghandian instruction to "be the change you want to see" but I think it's fair to say that we would have seen a lot less social and political progress if we'd insisted that the advocates for change were morally pure on the change they were advocating for. I'm just listening to a podcast on the History of England which has reached the 13th century and Simon de Montfort was not exactly without hypocrisy when it came to the abuse of Executive power - but where would we be without him?
Insisting on personal purity is simply a way to try and block progress. It would be different if there were rules that restricted flights that she was hypocritically breaking, but there aren't, so it isn't.
A good Guardian article describing how the economic and social changes which led to Brexit (which is of course no solution to them) exist across Europe:
“The city provides financiers, lawyers, designers, artists, culture, everything required to be a modern international hub. It has a monopoly on the high-end services that command the highest prices, and the rest of Italy has to pay those prices. In fashion it sits on top of a long global chain that has low-paid garment workers in Vietnam at the bottom. The problem is that this miracle in Milan only really involves the million or so people at its very heart. The city has shaken off the industrial hinterland that made it great in the 20th century. In the end this creates a problem of dignity for other places...
The idea that Britain should become the European Singapore is really no different, and no less idiotic than saying it should become Milan, or London.
An interesting article, thank you.
I liked the last line - “A city in a region, a region in a country.”
This is likely a global trend, and we’ve yet to develop the politics to address, rather than protest about it.
I'm sorry,i can't think of North Norfolk without going "ah-haah". It's a tic.
Holt is the sort of place Partridge loves, full of mustard cord wearing Tory oafs
Poor Holt, it doesn't deserve this abuse. It's lovely. So there.
It is.
Are you sure Holt is rock solid tory? Whenever I've been there have been a plethora of arty types and two men walking hand-in-hand down the high st. I'm not even sure the Gresham's teachers would vote blue?
Burnham Market, on the other hand ... but then it falls into North-West Norfolk.
Holt council seat is as blue as blue can be
I hate to correct your certainty (see my post below) but this is quite simply totally and utterly untrue! Are you Dominic Cummings?
Election of District Councillors 02nd May 2019 Holt
Baker, Duncan Charles CONS . 851 Elected Perry-Warnes, Georgina LIBDEM 805 Elected Swift, Lindon Ainsely LIBDEM 791 Prior, Margaret Ann CONS 548
Cons total votes: 1,399 LibDem total votes: 1,596
Like I said, there's a very arty dimension to Holt which is far from true blue.
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
If the polls as they stand are borne out the SW will be even worse for lab than usual and outside bristol they might get next to no seats, but even then Exeter would i think hold out.
It should do but tories within 5% in 2010. If the night is as bad for labour as I suspect it's the sort of shock that might pay off. I'm only going to risk buttons though
"There'll be no trolley service because of strike action" will become the signature tune of Britain's nationalised railways.
Where I live, the signature tune of regular train users is "Under State mismanagement, this line was saved only because Peter Parker lived here. Now we have five times as many trains, on average three times the size, as in Parker's day, slicing journey times by 35% over Parker's time. And a new station on a new line, with even more daily trains, just 15 minutes away. And they're mostly full"
It's only two years since Mason used our line to get to a lucrative speaking engagement that wouldn't have been possible when trains were run by bureaucrats. Oddly, he forgot to include his nonsensical untruths in the speech he gave here.
No it’s worse than that. Someone on course for such a landslide gets complacent, like a team believing they are two up when scores 0.0, they get defensive and run the clock down.
Kwasi fulfils a similar role for the tories as The Constant Gardiner does for Labour. Everybody, even those on their own side, think they are a useless twat and are therefore expendable cannon fodder to be sent out to be pegged by Sophy R's strap on.
Your postings can be quite disgusting sometimes, but I laughed at that one.....
I'm sorry,i can't think of North Norfolk without going "ah-haah". It's a tic.
Holt is the sort of place Partridge loves, full of mustard cord wearing Tory oafs
Poor Holt, it doesn't deserve this abuse. It's lovely. So there.
It is.
Are you sure Holt is rock solid tory? Whenever I've been there have been a plethora of arty types and two men walking hand-in-hand down the high st. I'm not even sure the Gresham's teachers would vote blue?
Burnham Market, on the other hand ... but then it falls into North-West Norfolk.
Holt council seat is as blue as blue can be
I hate to correct your certainty (see my post below) but this is quite simply totally and utterly untrue! Are you Dominic Cummings?
Election of District Councillors 02nd May 2019 Holt
Baker, Duncan Charles CONS . 851 Elected Perry-Warnes, Georgina LIBDEM 805 Elected Swift, Lindon Ainsely LIBDEM 791 Prior, Margaret Ann CONS 548
Cons total votes: 1,399 LibDem total votes: 1,596
Like I said, there's a very arty dimension to Holt which is far from true blue.
Buhhhhhhhh! I hadn't looked tbf, I thought it was way more solid. I used to live in Briston (about 7 miles from Holt) but my link there ended in 2013 when I moved back to the city P.s. I'm glad to say I'm not gollum
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
I'm sorry,i can't think of North Norfolk without going "ah-haah". It's a tic.
Holt is the sort of place Partridge loves, full of mustard cord wearing Tory oafs
Poor Holt, it doesn't deserve this abuse. It's lovely. So there.
It is.
Are you sure Holt is rock solid tory? Whenever I've been there have been a plethora of arty types and two men walking hand-in-hand down the high st. I'm not even sure the Gresham's teachers would vote blue?
Burnham Market, on the other hand ... but then it falls into North-West Norfolk.
Holt council seat is as blue as blue can be
I hate to correct your certainty (see my post below) but this is quite simply totally and utterly untrue! Are you Dominic Cummings?
Election of District Councillors 02nd May 2019 Holt
Baker, Duncan Charles CONS . 851 Elected Perry-Warnes, Georgina LIBDEM 805 Elected Swift, Lindon Ainsely LIBDEM 791 Prior, Margaret Ann CONS 548
Cons total votes: 1,399 LibDem total votes: 1,596
Like I said, there's a very arty dimension to Holt which is far from true blue.
Buhhhhhhhh! I hadn't looked tbf, I thought it was way more solid. I used to live in Briston (about 7 miles from Holt) but my link there ended in 2013 when I moved back to the city P.s. I'm glad to say I'm not gollum
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
Remainers won’t be lectured to over the Union, given that most Leavers don’t give two hoots for that .
If you voted Brexit then clearly you couldn’t care less about the Union. Apparently Leavers knew what they were voting for so they can own the end of the Union.
And all this Global Britain guff is going to look pathetic when Scotland leaves . Brexiters voted to trash the UK so cut the whining and take responsibility for your vote !
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
More utter bollocks. Predicting something and wishing for it are not the same thing. I want neither Brexit nor Scottish independence, but the former, particularly in the manner likely to be imposed, makes the latter considerably more likely.
And recognising the democratic inevitability of another referendum at some point is not the same as conceding it - though if the campaign against independence is led by PM Johnson, its success is that bit more likely.
Kwasi fulfils a similar role for the tories as The Constant Gardiner does for Labour. Everybody, even those on their own side, think they are a useless twat and are therefore expendable cannon fodder to be sent out to be pegged by Sophy R's strap on.
Your postings can be quite disgusting sometimes, but I laughed at that one.....
I think Kwasi is beyond useless you have to wonder if he’s double agent. It’s important to keep an attack going, control the headline and narrative giving it legs. K comes along and pulls rug from under it.
So I disagree with Ace on this occasion. If you think someone is out of form, you don’t send them out there to lose on the battlefield and cost you momentum.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
Remainers won’t be lectured to over the Union, given that most Leavers don’t give two hoots for that .
If you voted Brexit then clearly you couldn’t care less about the Union. Apparently Leavers knew what they were voting for so they can own the end of the Union.
And all this Global Britain guff is going to look pathetic when Scotland leaves . Brexiters voted to trash the UK so cut the whining and take responsibility for your vote !
Except the SNP are polling below the 2015 vote they got even before the 2016 Brexit vote.
Indeed it now seems pro EU Unionist Scots are increasingly voting LD not just SNP
So, when will Lab and Con decide that FPTP has had its day?
Labour in England might warm to PR if they find themselves losing in 2024 and 2029, and they conclude that they can never win again without help from the LDs. Neither of the entrenched large parties will embrace change unless the power balance between them is skewed so hopelessly for so long that they're forced into it.
Of course, Scotland will probably be long gone by this point.
Russia professor admits murder after woman's arms found in bag https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50365124 Students described him as both a talented lecturer who spoke French and did impressions of Napoleon and as a "freak" who called his lover "Josephine" and asked to be addressed as "Sire", AFP reported. He was also a member of France's Institute of Social Science, Economics and Politics (Issep), which on Saturday said it had removed him from his position on its scientific committee...
The Speaker’s role is to speak for the Commons. John Bercow did that. We now have the ridiculous position where Leavers, having supposedly campaigned for parliamentary sovereignty, now angrily support the government’s supposed right to steamroller the Commons because it is inconvenient for them.
And the even more ridiculous lip-quivering denunciations of such parliamentary shenanigans by those who were more than happy for parliament to be subverted permanently by a largely appointed supranational political entity. So forgive everyone for taking it with a small bucket of salt.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
More utter bollocks. Predicting something and wishing for it are not the same thing. I want neither Brexit nor Scottish independence, but the former, particularly in the manner likely to be imposed, makes the latter considerably more likely.
And recognising the democratic inevitability of another referendum at some point is not the same as conceding it - though if the campaign against independence is led by PM Johnson, its success is that bit more likely.
Most diehard Remainers crying about the threat to the Union could not give a toss about the Union in 2014 when the UK was still in the EU and before the EU referendum and the Leave vote. They only care about it now as a way of using Scottish and Northern Irish votes to keep England and Wales in the EU
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
Remainers won’t be lectured to over the Union, given that most Leavers don’t give two hoots for that .
If you voted Brexit then clearly you couldn’t care less about the Union. Apparently Leavers knew what they were voting for so they can own the end of the Union.
And all this Global Britain guff is going to look pathetic when Scotland leaves . Brexiters voted to trash the UK so cut the whining and take responsibility for your vote !
Except the SNP are polling below the 2015 vote they got even before the 2016 Brexit vote.
Indeed it now seems pro EU Unionist Scots are increasingly voting LD not just SNP
The Conservatives are polling below the 1955 general election vote, too
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
More utter bollocks. Predicting something and wishing for it are not the same thing. I want neither Brexit nor Scottish independence, but the former, particularly in the manner likely to be imposed, makes the latter considerably more likely.
And recognising the democratic inevitability of another referendum at some point is not the same as conceding it - though if the campaign against independence is led by PM Johnson, its success is that bit more likely.
Most diehard Remainers crying about the threat to the Union could not give a toss about the Union in 2014 when the UK was still in the EU and before the EU referendum and the Leave vote. They only care about it now as a way of using Scottish votes to keep England in the EU
Either you’re a remarkable mass mindreader, or burbling nonsense.
The Speaker’s role is to speak for the Commons. John Bercow did that. We now have the ridiculous position where Leavers, having supposedly campaigned for parliamentary sovereignty, now angrily support the government’s supposed right to steamroller the Commons because it is inconvenient for them.
And the even more ridiculous lip-quivering denunciations of such parliamentary shenanigans by those who were more than happy for parliament to be subverted permanently by a largely appointed supranational political entity. So forgive everyone for taking it with a small bucket of salt.
So, when will Lab and Con decide that FPTP has had its day?
Labour in England might warm to PR if they find themselves losing in 2024 and 2029, and they conclude that they can never win again without help from the LDs. Neither of the entrenched large parties will embrace change unless the power balance between them is skewed so hopelessly for so long that they're forced into it.
Of course, Scotland will probably be long gone by this point.
It is easier for Corbynites to win under FPTP rather than have to share power with the LDs under PR. It would take a heavy Labour defeat in December for them to consider it
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
I'm a Remainer in Scotland who flirted with the idea of Scottish Independence as a means to maintain EU membership, but seeing the grief being caused by the border in Ireland has put an end to that dalliance.
Crashing out of the ERM turned out very well for this country, although the government deserved no credit, as it was the very opposite of their policy.
Not as well as staying out in the first place would have been. The only silver lining in the whole thing was that it was the man who, as Chancellor, had pushed so hard for us to join the ERM, who ended up being the one carrying the can when it all went wrong. Still no consolation for all those who suffered as a result of his mismanagement though.
I prefer not to carry a monitor and keyboard around. Your solution only works if you work in one place.
Yeah, I'll personally stick with my laptop. But he worked out of two offices and his home, so it was a case of only needing to carry his phone and using monitors and keyboards that stayed put. I can see a future for Google Glass-like hardware, a lightweight and portable display that doesn't end up looking tiny like a phone screen does. Not sure how to overcome the need to carry a keyboard, though.
How about one of these? G
(edit, link not working properly) Google roll-up keyboard.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
I know your particular shade on the political spectrum revels in the delusion that they're being banned from saying stuff, but you are in fact allowed to say 'the Scots' and indeed 'them', just as anyone else is free to comment on that use. I hope this is a weight off your mind.
I've lived in Glasgow for over 25 years and I might occasionally use the term 'Glaswegians' (not wanting to presume my status in this context) but I wouldn't refer to 'them' in a million years.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
Remainers won’t be lectured to over the Union, given that most Leavers don’t give two hoots for that .
If you voted Brexit then clearly you couldn’t care less about the Union. Apparently Leavers knew what they were voting for so they can own the end of the Union.
And all this Global Britain guff is going to look pathetic when Scotland leaves . Brexiters voted to trash the UK so cut the whining and take responsibility for your vote !
Except the SNP are polling below the 2015 vote they got even before the 2016 Brexit vote.
Indeed it now seems pro EU Unionist Scots are increasingly voting LD not just SNP
The Conservatives are polling below the 1955 general election vote, too
How wealthy is Caroline Lucas? Genuine question, I have no clue.
She earns an MP salary and has access to 'expenses'. Shes much wealthier than the average Joe
So you don't know either?
I don't know her net wealth, I know she is much income wealthier than the average person on the basis of her having much more income than the average person
So you made a comment predicated on something you don't know, and now you're shifting the goalposts to save your argument.
Ok, cheers, that panned out exactly as I expected.
Did it? I'm happy my point stands without having access to Lucas' bank balance, her earnings place her in a category well above the average and if she spaffs it all up the wall on pictures of trees that were felled before their time and scented candles it changes nothing of her hypocrisy. I'll take the socratic method from ancient Greeks, not net trolls
I find the argument that nobody is allowed to campaign to change a system if they themselves take advantage of that system to be bogus. Sure, take fewer flights, drive a smaller car, use public transport or offset as an individual - that is your choice. However the system is as it is and small individual actions such as Greta's in crossing the ocean in a sailing boat are praiseworthy but only governments and big business can make decisions which will have a real effect. You seem to be saying that if someone takes a flight their arguments can be ignored - even if the arguments are valid.
The main lesson from Greta’s crossing was how utterly impractical any alternative to flying is if you want to be physically there. She really should have Skyped.
I’m sure she would have got a lot more publicity, if she’d turned up on a video link and castigated every hypocrite there for going to an exposed-paid jolly with a massive carbon footprint, when other ways of doing these things have been around for a couple of decades now.
(Yes I know in-person conferences have their uses, but one specifically about climate change could easily have been done using the latest technology across a number of worldwide venues.)
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
You don’t speak for Scots or Scotland.
Who said I did? However I can speak as a Scot, something you'll never be able to do, except in the unlikely event of you upping sticks to Auchterarder.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
More utter bollocks. Predicting something and wishing for it are not the same thing. I want neither Brexit nor Scottish independence, but the former, particularly in the manner likely to be imposed, makes the latter considerably more likely.
And recognising the democratic inevitability of another referendum at some point is not the same as conceding it - though if the campaign against independence is led by PM Johnson, its success is that bit more likely.
Remain fans (is it not in this very thread?) have been openly advocating an SNP vote in Scotland. So apparently Leavers voting for an outcome that is considered to enhance the SNP's electoral prospects is 'putting the union in danger', and this is wrong, but Remainers can flat out endorse the SNP, and this is fine. And now in this thread they're accusing Scots who don't vote as their pawns of having no balls. The hypocrisy is grotesque.
The Speaker’s role is to speak for the Commons. John Bercow did that. We now have the ridiculous position where Leavers, having supposedly campaigned for parliamentary sovereignty, now angrily support the government’s supposed right to steamroller the Commons because it is inconvenient for them.
And the even more ridiculous lip-quivering denunciations of such parliamentary shenanigans by those who were more than happy for parliament to be subverted permanently by a largely appointed supranational political entity. So forgive everyone for taking it with a small bucket of salt.
Are we still talking about Scotland?
More of that independence neutrality coming to the fore there I see. [/sarcasm]
How wealthy is Caroline Lucas? Genuine question, I have no clue.
She earns an MP salary and has access to 'expenses'. Shes much wealthier than the average Joe
So you don't know either?
I don't know her net wealth, I know she is much income wealthier than the average person on the basis of her having much more income than the average person
So you made a comment predicated on something you don't know, and now you're shifting the goalposts to save your argument.
Ok, cheers, that panned out exactly as I expected.
Did it? I'm happy my point stands without having access to Lucas' bank balance, her earnings place her in a category well above the average and if she spaffs it all up the wall on pictures of trees that were felled before their time and scented candles it changes nothing of her hypocrisy. I'll take the socratic method from ancient Greeks, not net trolls
You seem to be saying that if someone takes a flight their arguments can be ignored - even if the arguments are valid.
The main lesson from Greta’s crossing was how utterly impractical any alternative to flying is if you want to be physically there. She really should have Skyped.
I’m sure she would have got a lot more publicity, if she’d turned up on a video link and castigated every hypocrite there for going to an exposed-paid jolly with a massive carbon footprint, when other ways of doing these things have been around for a couple of decades now.
(Yes I know in-person conferences have their uses, but one specifically about climate change could easily have been done using the latest technology across a number of worldwide venues.)
It is particularly ironic as the main conference has now been moved to Madrid, leaving her on the wrong side of the Atlantic.
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
Exeter is just the sort of seat they’d hold onto.
Demographics, dear boy.
My eldest daughter is at Exeter Uni. She tells me that most of her friends will vote Labour because they think Corbyn will abolish tuition fees and they won't have to pay back their student loans. Aww bless.
With or without Brexit, Scotland will be independent shortly. The political divergence is now too huge and too sustained. Pro Union Scots should vote SLD on the remote chance that defeating Brexit keeps the Union on life support a bit longer.
Yes, one would have thought INDSCOT is coming quite soon now. Dragged out of the EU on Hard Brexit terms by a right wing Tory government headed by a vacuous Eton poshboy. Surely a slam dunk. If this does NOT lead to independence I would have to begin to suspect that the Scots are all mouth and no whatevers about the matter.
Now you're trying to actually goad them into it? Utterly deranged remainia.
There are other contenders, but that’s perhaps the silliest post of the morning.
Vaguely interesting that someone who afaicr lives in Scotland considers the Scots to be 'them'. We obviously haven't been inclusive enough.
Not being Scottish, and the original post referring to 'the Scots', what other terminology would I use? Bizarre observation.
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
More utter bollocks. Predicting something and wishing for it are not the same thing. I want neither Brexit nor Scottish independence, but the former, particularly in the manner likely to be imposed, makes the latter considerably more likely.
And recognising the democratic inevitability of another referendum at some point is not the same as conceding it - though if the campaign against independence is led by PM Johnson, its success is that bit more likely.
Remain fans (is it not in this very thread?) have been openly advocating an SNP vote in Scotland. So apparently Leavers voting for an outcome that is considered to enhance the SNP's electoral prospects is 'putting the union in danger', and this is wrong, but Remainers can flat out endorse the SNP, and this is fine. And now in this thread they're accusing Scots who don't vote as their pawns of having no balls. The hypocrisy is grotesque.
Exactly, most Leavers will vote for the Tories who oppose indyref2 yet most Remainers will vote Labour or SNP or Green who back indyref2 (though LDs are the honourable exception in also opposing indyref2)
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
Exeter is just the sort of seat they’d hold onto Demographics, dear boy.
My eldest daughter is at Exeter Uni. She tells me that most of her friends will vote Labour because they think Corbyn will abolish tuition fees and they won't have to pay back their student loans. Aww bless.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
..
Complete nonsense about smartphones. I use a phone for calls and text and a laptop for other things - and that is common practice amongst people I know. I am entirely with you that the poverty threshold evolves, but not such that a smartphone is an essential.
All that shows is that you are (probably) over 50.
You can get a smartphone for under £100. Makes more economic sense than buying a phone and a laptop.
Ever tried working a spreadsheet on a smartphone?
You can get a cheap monitor and keyboard and use a phone as a replacement for a computer. I've seen the CTO of a finance company working in exactly that way in recent years, was fascinating to see it in action. Not what I would choose to do, but it worked for him.
Samsung Dex it’s called, and it’s quite impressive, I’m working on a rollout at the moment. It needs a top end phone (S9 minimum) but for hot-desking for remote workers, or for an exec who likes to travel light, it’s a good solution.
Microsoft also tried it with Nokia phones a couple of years ago, but their phone o/s ended up dead.
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
Exeter is just the sort of seat they’d hold onto.
Demographics, dear boy.
My eldest daughter is at Exeter Uni. She tells me that most of her friends will vote Labour because they think Corbyn will abolish tuition fees and they won't have to pay back their student loans. Aww bless.
I'm sure there will be plenty of totally inncocent slips of the tongue from Corbyn which imply that will happen.
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
Exeter is just the sort of seat they’d hold onto.
Demographics, dear boy.
My eldest daughter is at Exeter Uni. She tells me that most of her friends will vote Labour because they think Corbyn will abolish tuition fees and they won't have to pay back their student loans. Aww bless.
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
Exeter is just the sort of seat they’d hold onto.
Demographics, dear boy.
My eldest daughter is at Exeter Uni. She tells me that most of her friends will vote Labour because they think Corbyn will abolish tuition fees and they won't have to pay back their student loans. Aww bless.
Of course, Labour won't have to cancel their loans to save them the money.
You only have to pay them back in the first place when you're earning enough to do so.
Living off benefits because you, along with most of the rest of the population, is unemployed because the Government has done a Venezuela to the economy doesn't count.
If there is one question the Leader of the Greens needs to have a good answer for, it is this.
(She should have talked about offsetting).
Quite. Plus how it is justified that she wants to make it harder and prohibitively expensive for people with much less wealth than her to travel for equally valid reasons. Air travel for the elite only, a staple of green politics
How wealthy is Caroline Lucas? Genuine question, I have no clue.
Well 10 years of Westminster Pension Pot plus the post-expenses salary, plus 10 years of Euro Parliament Pension plus the MEP expenses for a decade.
Those 2 together should be around a million, plus the 200k+ pension pot we all have from a fully paid up UK Basic Pension. (Using multiple of 35-40, which is what you currently get for cashing a Final Salary pension in).
Suspect that CL is fairly clean on Parliamentary expenses, probably also compared to the average MEP whilst she was there.
Plus whatever she has accumulated from property and savings over 20 years of politics plus 15 years previsouly.
Plus whatever you make off the back of a PhD in Tudor Chick Lit.
£2-3 million?
Not as loaded as say Diane Abbott, but probably a 1-5 per-center.
Minus donations and other she has spent, which may be zero or may be substantial.
Call me mad but I'm going to have a nibble on Bradshaw losing Exeter
Exeter is just the sort of seat they’d hold onto.
Demographics, dear boy.
My eldest daughter is at Exeter Uni. She tells me that most of her friends will vote Labour because they think Corbyn will abolish tuition fees and they won't have to pay back their student loans. Aww bless.
Given that the ONS is now adding over £10bn per year to government borrowing for bad student loan debt its clear that a large part of student loans will never be repaid.
So giving students the enormous debt in the first place and so making them more susceptible to voting Labour wasn't a clever thing for the Conservatives to have done.
Comments
People asking why. Well at one point we had even the PM reading this site, and definitely MPs / journalists do (the number of times talking points / jokes have been ripped off is more than chance). If you can link to something that gets traction and repeated by a mainstream journalist etc, job done.
Now however there is the likes of theCanary for that, and we know Team Corbyn coordinates directly with these kind of sites and a select number of mainstream journalists.
Imagine if that had happened! We dodged a bullet there, eh?
TBP will take more votes off the Conservatives.
Also, what happened to the Times Russia report?
Don't ever believe the Tories are the ones who understand economics.
People around here liked Lamb and he indicated willingness to defy the whip and vote through the Deal. They're not getting any of that from his nominated replacement. Nothing is certain in life, but the Conservatives should be odds-on already. The race here is theirs to lose.
So if Boris wins the Union is secure for years and indeed it is not impossible to see the LDs start to win back SNP seats in rural and suburban central belt Scotland in the Holyrood 2021 elections depriving the SNP of their majority with the Greens, indeed YouGov last week had a swing from the SNP to the LDs.
Only if Corbyn wins and enables indyref2 for SNP support is the Union under threat in the next few years, though No would still probably win
It's entertaining that many of the subscribers to the above pov are almost precisely those who endlessly whined about Labour cowardice in not enabling BJ's GE at the time of his choosing. As I constantly & no doubt tediously say, there are always rich pickings on here for collectors of human hypocrisy.
Johnson has some way to go before he beats Goderich (1827-28) as worst PM.
The disputed EM PM was Robert Banks Jenkinson, 2nd Earl of Liverpool (1812-27). The argument is whether his mother was born in India of purely English descent, or whether she was mixed race. My personal view is that she probably wasn't but I could easily be wrong.
I'm trying to quantify the incumbency effect. This suggests you shouldn't be putting it at over 3 percentage points without good reason: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/may/04/incumbency-effect-impact-mps
So if we take 3pp from the Lib Dems, and add them ALL to the Conservatives (which I think it's extremely dubious, but let's just for the sake of argument) that's 45.4-44.7 to the Lib Dems.
Now remove 12% of the Tory vote for TBP, that's 5.4pp, and 1% of the Lib Dem vote, that's 44.9-39.3 to the Lib Dems.
Next you'll want to factor in national swing. This is partially accounted for already with the Conservative to Brexit Party and Lib Dem to Brexit Party swing detailed above. I'll leave that exercise to you, but you have a 5.6pp gap to make up, and you have 10pp of Labour vote to use. Even if you think half of those Labour voters will turn Conservative and none of them go Lib Dem (we're getting into the realms of fantasy politics here), it still isn't enough.
So you're relying on fictional swings, a Brexit Party effect that isn't borne out in polling at all (i.e. hurting the Lib Dems more than Conservatives), or a huge Lib Dem to Tory swing that goes way beyond normal incumbency effects and isn't borne out in the national polling (which shows a swing going the other way).
The only thing that can make your prediction realistic is if you have constituency level polling or canvassing that proves something out of the ordinary is going on. If TBP steps aside, I'd revisit this narrative, but otherwise, save your money.
RIP
https://twitter.com/Iblogtoglasgow/status/1193507910074163201?s=20
He was leader of the Commons, Chancellor of the Excheuqer and the architect of the Second Reform Act, but on all other matters he had to defer to Derby (and did even on spending matters).
Are you sure Holt is rock solid tory? Whenever I've been there have been a plethora of arty types and two men walking hand-in-hand down the high st. I'm not even sure the Gresham's teachers would vote blue?
Burnham Market, on the other hand ... but then it falls into North-West Norfolk.
I liked the last line - “A city in a region, a region in a country.”
Greshams is a pretendy public school. Not all that. Proper boys went to Norwich School (on the assisted places scheme)
Insisting on personal purity is simply a way to try and block progress. It would be different if there were rules that restricted flights that she was hypocritically breaking, but there aren't, so it isn't.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/10/michael-bloomberg-2020-poll-068484
But I liked the description of him as “basically Biden’s super PAC”.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10104
Election of District Councillors 02nd May 2019
Holt
Baker, Duncan Charles CONS . 851 Elected
Perry-Warnes, Georgina LIBDEM 805 Elected
Swift, Lindon Ainsely LIBDEM 791
Prior, Margaret Ann CONS 548
Cons total votes: 1,399
LibDem total votes: 1,596
Like I said, there's a very arty dimension to Holt which is far from true blue.
QED.
Source: https://www.north-norfolk.gov.uk/media/5016/declaration-of-results-district-council-elections.pdf
It's only two years since Mason used our line to get to a lucrative speaking engagement that wouldn't have been possible when trains were run by bureaucrats. Oddly, he forgot to include his nonsensical untruths in the speech he gave here.
P.s. I'm glad to say I'm not gollum
The marriage of convenience between the remainiac faction and Scottish nationalism is truly gobsmacking. The Scots (am I allowed to say that?) are expected to march lemming-like toward the UK exit door, either as a last roll of the dice to stay in the EU, or to fulfill remainers' revenge fantasies if we leave. All this after accusing leavers of 'putting the union in danger'.
Good one! Made me chuckle.
Demographics, dear boy.
If you voted Brexit then clearly you couldn’t care less about the Union. Apparently Leavers knew what they were voting for so they can own the end of the Union.
And all this Global Britain guff is going to look pathetic when Scotland leaves . Brexiters voted to trash the UK so cut the whining and take responsibility for your vote !
Predicting something and wishing for it are not the same thing.
I want neither Brexit nor Scottish independence, but the former, particularly in the manner likely to be imposed, makes the latter considerably more likely.
And recognising the democratic inevitability of another referendum at some point is not the same as conceding it - though if the campaign against independence is led by PM Johnson, its success is that bit more likely.
So I disagree with Ace on this occasion. If you think someone is out of form, you don’t send them out there to lose on the battlefield and cost you momentum.
Indeed it now seems pro EU Unionist Scots are increasingly voting LD not just SNP
Of course, Scotland will probably be long gone by this point.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50365124
Students described him as both a talented lecturer who spoke French and did impressions of Napoleon and as a "freak" who called his lover "Josephine" and asked to be addressed as "Sire", AFP reported.
He was also a member of France's Institute of Social Science, Economics and Politics (Issep), which on Saturday said it had removed him from his position on its scientific committee...
I wonder which ?
(edit, link not working properly) Google roll-up keyboard.
Good afternoon, everybody.
I've lived in Glasgow for over 25 years and I might occasionally use the term 'Glaswegians' (not wanting to presume my status in this context) but I wouldn't refer to 'them' in a million years.
(Yes I know in-person conferences have their uses, but one specifically about climate change could easily have been done using the latest technology across a number of worldwide venues.)
However I can speak as a Scot, something you'll never be able to do, except in the unlikely event of you upping sticks to Auchterarder.
Microsoft also tried it with Nokia phones a couple of years ago, but their phone o/s ended up dead.
You only have to pay them back in the first place when you're earning enough to do so.
Living off benefits because you, along with most of the rest of the population, is unemployed because the Government has done a Venezuela to the economy doesn't count.
Those 2 together should be around a million, plus the 200k+ pension pot we all have from a fully paid up UK Basic Pension. (Using multiple of 35-40, which is what you currently get for cashing a Final Salary pension in).
Suspect that CL is fairly clean on Parliamentary expenses, probably also compared to the average MEP whilst she was there.
Plus whatever she has accumulated from property and savings over 20 years of politics plus 15 years previsouly.
Plus whatever you make off the back of a PhD in Tudor Chick Lit.
£2-3 million?
Not as loaded as say Diane Abbott, but probably a 1-5 per-center.
Minus donations and other she has spent, which may be zero or may be substantial.
So giving students the enormous debt in the first place and so making them more susceptible to voting Labour wasn't a clever thing for the Conservatives to have done.