on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Led by Corbyn. TINA. Forget anything that Swinson has said about not putting JC into office, that's for the consumption of Tory-LD floating voters and will be cast aside as soon as the polling stations close.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
Well, probably. But that does require Swinson and many of her MPs to have been fast asleep during the Coalition years. I suspect the penalty at the ballot box for enabling Corbyn from this point would be greater than for the tuition fees debacle.
Lib Dems will not support Corbyn or Johnson in coalition or confidence and supply. The membership and defections from both Tory and Lab parliamentary parties will prevent that.
A hung parliament would be headed to new elections in the spring with new Lab and possibly Con leaderships.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
I don't particularly want the Union to collapse either, but I approach the situation from the anti-Labour perspective so I can certainly appreciate the upside. Indeed, when it comes to the choice between rescuing England from the Far Left or keeping free movement across the Tweed it's a total no-brainer.
Every Labour defeat come election night is to be celebrated, and that absolutely includes victories by the SNP. Scottish independence is a disaster for the Scottish unionists and the demented Trots but a win for everybody else under current circumstances.
If Labour were a spent rump of half-a-dozen Liverpudlian militants and the main opposition were a bunch of social democrats then things might be very different, but that is not the reality in which we live. It must be kept away from power until it comes to its senses or is replaced. All else, including Brexit and the territorial integrity of the UK, is secondary.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
We thought that of Johnson.
We thought wrong.
Some may of thought that of Johnson. Some thought wrong. Weirdly they want to stick with him, doubling down on their mistake. No! Chuck the unlawful, divisive bugger out before we commit to five years of this chaos.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
The why is easier than the when. When Disraeli was Prime Minister the choice was truly with the House of Commons and was essentially separate from elections even if elections did affect the result. Gladstone was roundly condemned for speaking in a seat he was not the candidate in. That was the beginning of the rot - so blame Gladstone !
The then national situation still stands with most local councils - I am the candidate at local elections and it is me they vote for - or not - not the Leader of Council. Of course those who want elected mayors had other ideas and maybe like you I don't think they were better ones.
Umm, in Disraeli's time the choice was with the queen. That's why two of his three Victorian successors were peers.
Attlee and Churchill both remained after election defeats, as did Home (for a time) and Wilson. Really, the tradition, such as it is, started with Heath but it wasn't even then always followed - Kinnock 1987 springs to mind. Howard could probably have stayed on in 2005 had he wanted to.
I thought Heath didn’t go willingly? The Tories can and have got rid of underperforming leaders in a fairly ruthless fashion (Thatcher, IDS, and May) but the only Labour leader I can think of who was forced out was Blair.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
We thought that of Johnson.
We thought wrong.
Some may of thought that of Johnson. Some thought wrong. Weirdly they want to stick with him, doubling down on their mistake. No! Chuck the unlawful, divisive bugger out before we commit to five years of this chaos.
Some thought that of Corbyn. Some thought wrong. Unfortunately we can’t get rid of him because of the way he dominates Labour’s membership...
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
It could be Labour Leavers who are realising that a vote for the Brexit Party is a wasted vote and that if they want to stop Johnson they have to vote Labour in this election.
Money is starting to appear on the Betfair constituency markets, and it is worth sniffing around as there are some good opportunities, in particular on some almost certain Tory holds at odds up to 1.1 (for example IOW). There's also some money left at 1.01 on a 2019 GE, for anyone with a large undeployed balance.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
The why is easier than the when. When Disraeli was Prime Minister the choice was truly with the House of Commons and was essentially separate from elections even if elections did affect the result. Gladstone was roundly condemned for speaking in a seat he was not the candidate in. That was the beginning of the rot - so blame Gladstone !
The then national situation still stands with most local councils - I am the candidate at local elections and it is me they vote for - or not - not the Leader of Council. Of course those who want elected mayors had other ideas and maybe like you I don't think they were better ones.
Umm, in Disraeli's time the choice was with the queen. That's why two of his three Victorian successors were peers.
Attlee and Churchill both remained after election defeats, as did Home (for a time) and Wilson. Really, the tradition, such as it is, started with Heath but it wasn't even then always followed - Kinnock 1987 springs to mind. Howard could probably have stayed on in 2005 had he wanted to.
I thought Heath didn’t go willingly? The Tories can and have got rid of underperforming leaders in a fairly ruthless fashion (Thatcher, IDS, and May) but the only Labour leader I can think of who was forced out was Blair.
Some Labour leaders needed to stick around longer. Yes, I am looking at you Ed!
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
I’m hoping for a re-alignment of the centre-right post-independence. I would love it if centre-right activists and supporters from the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories pooled resources and built a new, powerful party to lead the country, or at least keep social democrats under scrutiny.
(What the new party call ourselves is a detail, albeit an interesting one.)
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
The why is easier than the when. When Disraeli was Prime Minister the choice was truly with the House of Commons and was essentially separate from elections even if elections did affect the result. Gladstone was roundly condemned for speaking in a seat he was not the candidate in. That was the beginning of the rot - so blame Gladstone !
The then national situation still stands with most local councils - I am the candidate at local elections and it is me they vote for - or not - not the Leader of Council. Of course those who want elected mayors had other ideas and maybe like you I don't think they were better ones.
Umm, in Disraeli's time the choice was with the queen. That's why two of his three Victorian successors were peers.
Attlee and Churchill both remained after election defeats, as did Home (for a time) and Wilson. Really, the tradition, such as it is, started with Heath but it wasn't even then always followed - Kinnock 1987 springs to mind. Howard could probably have stayed on in 2005 had he wanted to.
I thought Heath didn’t go willingly? The Tories can and have got rid of underperforming leaders in a fairly ruthless fashion (Thatcher, IDS, and May) but the only Labour leader I can think of who was forced out was Blair.
That’s why it started the tradition of removing leaders.
In the case of Foot and Miliband, they both jumped before being pushed. Possibly Kinnock as well.
TBH though I think expectations are the key. Kinnock wasn’t expected to win in 1987 but he ran a good campaign and strengthened Labour considerably, so he stayed. Heath threw away a majority for no good reason and clearly didn’t have a clue how to get it back, so he was removed. Miliband lost when he and everyone else expected him to win.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
Less a purge, more self-immolation. The Europhile headbangers knew exactly what they were doing, playing wth petrol and matches.
On the GE it does appear that the Tory vote is consolidating around the 40% mark and with a bit more squeeze on TBP to come looks pretty likely to match May's figures or thereby. The question is whether Labour will be able to consolidate the anti-Tory vote again in the way that they did in 2017. At the moment this looks very unlikely but a few more predictions of a Tory landslide, as in 2017, might well help them once again.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
Across most of Britain it is pretty clear which party is the challenger to the Tories, so a split opposition can be quite effective.
At the moment it looks like Con 350 seats to me, with gains in Wales, NE, NW, W Mids, E Mids, counterbalanced by losses in SE, SW, EE and London.
It will be a different Tory parliamentary party, culturally dominated by wealthy southerners, but largely consisting of rookie Northerners. Imagine a party of Esther McVeys.
FWIW I'm pretty sure the Conservatives will advance slightly in the East, although they hold almost all the seats here already so the net gain would only be about 2 or 3.
Still, if this is as close as I think it might be, every one will count.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Led by Corbyn. TINA. Forget anything that Swinson has said about not putting JC into office, that's for the consumption of Tory-LD floating voters and will be cast aside as soon as the polling stations close.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
Well, probably. But that does require Swinson and many of her MPs to have been fast asleep during the Coalition years. I suspect the penalty at the ballot box for enabling Corbyn from this point would be greater than for the tuition fees debacle.
Lib Dems will not support Corbyn or Johnson in coalition or confidence and supply. The membership and defections from both Tory and Lab parliamentary parties will prevent that.
A hung parliament would be headed to new elections in the spring with new Lab and possibly Con leaderships.
What makes you think Corbyn would step down in those circumstances? We have already seen that the PLP can’t get rid of him.
Enjoyable article, thanks GreenMachine! A bit depressing from this side of the Irish Sea to hear that the sectarian votes on both sides still sound as if they've got a solid grip.
I suspect (without knowing much about it) that change may come more through generational evolution within the DUP and Sinn Fein (as to some extent seems to have happened with SF) is more likely to achieve a change than the growth of newer parties. Or is that a misreading of the outlook?
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The b
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
Good morning
I am far from convinced the Scots will vote for independence.
The idea that the Scots will break away from their main market and install a Berwick to Carlisle border is far from certain but there will be many thousands more issues to enable a divorce of our 400 year old relationship
Additionally on a yes vote where does Scotland end up. I assume the Scots would want to join Brussels without a vacant period, but has anyone even found out if the EU would support Scotland thereby encouraging separarist movements across Europe.
I respect the SNP for many good things it has undertaken and maybe another referendum will be held someday, but unlikely before 2022. A lot of things will happen between now and then and for this pro union supporter I would far rather see a federal arrangement with Scotland as a sensible compromise.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Give me Brown over any of this in a heartbeat.
Here is a wild prediction.
Johnson would be a better PM than May or Brown.
Interesting use of "prediction" and "would be"!
He is PM. And, spoiler alert, he's rubbish.
Indeed.
May and Brown were dire, but breaking the law and lying to the monarch were beyond even their ultra-dud talents.
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
It could be Labour Leavers who are realising that a vote for the Brexit Party is a wasted vote and that if they want to stop Johnson they have to vote Labour in this election.
It's probably a case of Labour voters switching from Don't Know to Labour.
The last four polls average Con 40%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 16%, TBP 8%.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
We thought that of Johnson.
We thought wrong.
Some may of thought that of Johnson. Some thought wrong. Weirdly they want to stick with him, doubling down on their mistake. No! Chuck the unlawful, divisive bugger out before we commit to five years of this chaos.
Some thought that of Corbyn. Some thought wrong. Unfortunately we can’t get rid of him because of the way he dominates Labour’s membership...
I am not so sure that Corbyn does dominate the membership. Even Owen Who got nearly 40% against him. An electoral disaster and Remainer backlash will see him off.
Who will replace him? My contention is that defeated leaders get little influence in their succession. It is very likely to be a winner from a different faction, probably female and pro-EU. My money is on Jess Phillips, though Angela Rayner is also possible.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20-25 a bottle -ish.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
We thought that of Johnson.
We thought wrong.
Some may of thought that of Johnson. Some thought wrong. Weirdly they want to stick with him, doubling down on their mistake. No! Chuck the unlawful, divisive bugger out before we commit to five years of this chaos.
Some thought that of Corbyn. Some thought wrong. Unfortunately we can’t get rid of him because of the way he dominates Labour’s membership...
I am not so sure that Corbyn does dominate the membership. Even Owen Who got nearly 40% against him. An electoral disaster and Remainer backlash will see him off.
Yes, but we’re discussing the issues if he gets to Downing Street. That wouldn’t be possible with an electoral disaster.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
We thought that of Johnson.
We thought wrong.
Some may of thought that of Johnson. Some thought wrong. Weirdly they want to stick with him, doubling down on their mistake. No! Chuck the unlawful, divisive bugger out before we commit to five years of this chaos.
Some thought that of Corbyn. Some thought wrong. Unfortunately we can’t get rid of him because of the way he dominates Labour’s membership...
I am not so sure that Corbyn does dominate the membership. Even Owen Who got nearly 40% against him. An electoral disaster and Remainer backlash will see him off.
Who will replace him? My contention is that defeated leaders get little influence in their succession. It is very likely to be a winner from a different faction, probably female and pro-EU. My money is on Jess Phillips, though Angela Rayner is also possible.
I like both Jess Phillips and Angela Rayner. Either would be fascinating against Boris.
I saw your comment last night (thanks), and the weight of evidence is that you are incorrect.
Although the Auld Alliance was going through a quiet phase at the time of Agincourt, it was hardly void. The weight of evidence is that it is highly likely that individual Scottish knights, and even possibly a modest Scottish unit, fought under French royal command at Agincourt. Certainly, in the aftermath of the defeat, the Scots sent approx 15,000 troops to France to assist their allies, initially very successfully.
So “we” is nonsense. Although not as nonsensical as when Scots say “we” in reference to the Armada, where Scots support for the Spanish is well-documented. Not that the BBC and other diddies care for inconveniences like historical fact.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20 a bottle -ish, or a little more.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
It’s just as well SeanT’s not here to recommend something on that budget...
I saw your comment last night (thanks), and the weight of evidence is that you are incorrect.
Although the Auld Alliance was going through a quiet phase at the time of Agincourt, it was hardly void. The weight of evidence is that it is highly likely that individual Scottish knights, and even possibly a modest Scottish unit, fought under French royal command at Agincourt. Certainly, in the aftermath of the defeat, the Scots sent approx 15,000 troops to France to assist their allies, initially very successfully.
So “we” is nonsense. Although not as nonsensical as when Scots say “we” in reference to the Armada, where Scots support for the Spanish is well-documented. Not that the BBC and other diddies care for inconveniences like historical fact.
So what you are saying is that an independent Scotland would be a security risk?
If Labour get into Downing Street, it is almost certain it will not be as a majority, but at the head of a rainbow coalition of Labour, SNP, LibDems and Plaid Cymru.
The price for the SNP joining that coalition will be a second referendum. The SNP think "do it now" because Brexit gives them a greater chance of independence. Being dragged out the EU against the wishes of the Scots gives them the moral highground, the extra impetus to deliver what they could not in 2014. But propping up a Labour Govt. risks killing their Golden Goose of Brexit happening. So - huh?
The price for the LibDems joining that coalition will be doing all it can to overtun Brexit. They would claim that as the LibDems having delivered it. But to do that, they will have to work with the SNP which is working for an independent Scotland.
So how do the LibDems get away in Scotland with not being seen as at least collaborators with those who will end the Union? How do they sell themselves as a Unionist Party? Again - huh?
Why will the SCons not be seen as the sole Unionist party to vote for on 12th December?
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
You are right, of course. Who was I thinking of? I know the record is four.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20 a bottle -ish, or a little more.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
It’s just as well SeanT’s not here to recommend something on that budget...
Heh. Yep.
It isn't quite the sale of half a million books :-), though a good piece of advice.
I know what I pay for champagne or prosecco that I like, and it does not include half the price for the label. Unless I am flying business and it is included.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Exept, don't be surprised to find that conservative green politics and social democratic values is exactly what Boris delivers.....
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The b
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
Good morning
I am far from convinced the Scots will vote for independence.
The idea that the Scots will break away from their main market and install a Berwick to Carlisle border is far from certain but there will be many thousands more issues to enable a divorce of our 400 year old relationship
Additionally on a yes vote where does Scotland end up. I assume the Scots would want to join Brussels without a vacant period, but has anyone even found out if the EU would support Scotland thereby encouraging separarist movements across Europe.
I respect the SNP for many good things it has undertaken and maybe another referendum will be held someday, but unlikely before 2022. A lot of things will happen between now and then and for this pro union supporter I would far rather see a federal arrangement with Scotland as a sensible compromise.
Scots have to have more powers to be fair
52 Yes 48 No and Boris says that's not good enough for separation is my forecast!
I saw your comment last night (thanks), and the weight of evidence is that you are incorrect.
Although the Auld Alliance was going through a quiet phase at the time of Agincourt, it was hardly void. The weight of evidence is that it is highly likely that individual Scottish knights, and even possibly a modest Scottish unit, fought under French royal command at Agincourt. Certainly, in the aftermath of the defeat, the Scots sent approx 15,000 troops to France to assist their allies, initially very successfully.
So “we” is nonsense. Although not as nonsensical as when Scots say “we” in reference to the Armada, where Scots support for the Spanish is well-documented. Not that the BBC and other diddies care for inconveniences like historical fact.
Although it didn’t end terribly well for the Scots:
David is right on one point though - James I served in France under Henry V and later under Bedford. It was part of his captivity in England from 1406-24. That was very useful for Henry, as it meant any Scottish soldiers he captured could be dragged before their king, convicted of treason and beheaded.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20-25 a bottle -ish.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
I am not a fan of fizzy wine, but Mrs Foxy is, and rather liked this one:
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20 a bottle -ish, or a little more.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
It’s just as well SeanT’s not here to recommend something on that budget...
Heh. Yep.
It isn't quite the sale of half a million books :-), though a good piece of advice.
I know what I pay for champagne or prosecco that I like, and it does not include half the price for the label. Unless I am flying business and it is included.
Budget amended to £25 a bottle !
Three Choirs from Gloucestershire is a bit cheaper but very good.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
You are right, of course. Who was I thinking of? I know the record is four.
Comment deleted.
On checking, the record holder is obvious, as is why he got muddled with Disraeli although neither would I think be flattered by that. It was of course Gladstone - 1868-74, 1880-85, 1885-86 and 1892-94.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Exept, don't be surprised to find that conservative green politics and social democratic values is exactly what Boris delivers.....
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20 a bottle -ish, or a little more.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
It’s just as well SeanT’s not here to recommend something on that budget...
Heh. Yep.
It isn't quite the sale of half a million books :-), though a good piece of advice.
I know what I pay for champagne or prosecco that I like, and it does not include half the price for the label. Unless I am flying business and it is included.
Budget amended to £25 a bottle !
Three Choirs from Gloucestershire is a bit cheaper but very good.
Bloody hard to get hold of outside Glos though. Annoyingly, because it is very good.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
You are right, of course. Who was I thinking of? I know the record is four.
Comment deleted.
On checking, the record holder is obvious, as is why he got muddled with Disraeli although neither would I think be flattered by that. It was of course Gladstone - 1868-74, 1880-85, 1885-86 and 1892-94.
I saw your comment last night (thanks), and the weight of evidence is that you are incorrect.
Although the Auld Alliance was going through a quiet phase at the time of Agincourt, it was hardly void. The weight of evidence is that it is highly likely that individual Scottish knights, and even possibly a modest Scottish unit, fought under French royal command at Agincourt. Certainly, in the aftermath of the defeat, the Scots sent approx 15,000 troops to France to assist their allies, initially very successfully.
So “we” is nonsense. Although not as nonsensical as when Scots say “we” in reference to the Armada, where Scots support for the Spanish is well-documented. Not that the BBC and other diddies care for inconveniences like historical fact.
Didn't the Auld Alliance effectively end with John Knox and the Scottish Reformation?
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
I’m hoping for a re-alignment of the centre-right post-independence. I would love it if centre-right activists and supporters from the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories pooled resources and built a new, powerful party to lead the country, or at least keep social democrats under scrutiny.
(What the new party call ourselves is a detail, albeit an interesting one.)
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20-25 a bottle -ish.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
‘Overcame’ is more than a little optimistic.
We still carry the debt from that debacle and the two largest parties are now vying to heap Pelion upon Ossa in Johnson’s case, and in Corbyn's to rewrite the economic textbooks in red crayon.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Exept, don't be surprised to find that conservative green politics and social democratic values is exactly what Boris delivers.....
Ssshhh don’t tell Pritti, Raab and the headbangers.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20-25 a bottle -ish.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20-25 a bottle -ish.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
The Wine Society's entry level champagne is £22 and excellent. Plus two bottle discount for a case.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The b
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
SNIP
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
Good morning
I am far from convinced the Scots will vote for independence.
The idea that the Scots will break away from their main market and install a Berwick to Carlisle border is far from certain but there will be many thousands more issues to enable a divorce of our 400 year old relationship
Additionally on a yes vote where does Scotland end up. I assume the Scots would want to join Brussels without a vacant period, but has anyone even found out if the EU would support Scotland thereby encouraging separarist movements across Europe.
I respect the SNP for many good things it has undertaken and maybe another referendum will be held someday, but unlikely before 2022. A lot of things will happen between now and then and for this pro union supporter I would far rather see a federal arrangement with Scotland as a sensible compromise.
Scots have to have more powers to be fair
52 Yes 48 No and Boris says that's not good enough for separation is my forecast!
His arse , we are not slaves to be told what we can and cannot do by a fat lying buffoon
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20 a bottle -ish, or a little more.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
It’s just as well SeanT’s not here to recommend something on that budget...
Heh. Yep.
It isn't quite the sale of half a million books :-), though a good piece of advice.
I know what I pay for champagne or prosecco that I like, and it does not include half the price for the label. Unless I am flying business and it is included.
Budget amended to £25 a bottle !
Three Choirs from Gloucestershire is a bit cheaper but very good.
Bloody hard to get hold of outside Glos though. Annoyingly, because it is very good.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20 a bottle -ish, or a little more.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
It’s just as well SeanT’s not here to recommend something on that budget...
Heh. Yep.
It isn't quite the sale of half a million books :-), though a good piece of advice.
I know what I pay for champagne or prosecco that I like, and it does not include half the price for the label. Unless I am flying business and it is included.
Budget amended to £25 a bottle !
Three Choirs from Gloucestershire is a bit cheaper but very good.
Bloody hard to get hold of outside Glos though. Annoyingly, because it is very good.
Thanks Green Machine On Foyle, is Eastwood well positioned for DUP switchers ? He got criticized for being a pallbearer at an IRA funeral (probably unfairly given it was a friend of his) and his views on abortion and Brexit would be at odds with the DUP's base. And he isn't up against Martin McGuinness. In fact from a Brexit perspective, a Brexiteer is better off with the Shinners than the SDLP !
Can't see SLAB surviving Scottish independence. For one, they're largely currently kept going by support of the unions and rUK Labour membership fees. Post independence that money dries up.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Exept, don't be surprised to find that conservative green politics and social democratic values is exactly what Boris delivers.....
Ssshhh don’t tell Pritti, Raab and the headbangers.
Weird interview with Priti on the BBC the other day. Seemed to be projecting increased immigration. Just not from Europe.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
I don't dispute that there are areas of society that life can and should be improved upon. My main point is that a lot of energy being wasted on angst about things that haven't happened yet and might never happen.
We would have used food banks had they been available then. We did receive some charitable assistance in that we were housed for a few nights in a shelter when things got really bad but that type of help was quite rare in them days.
Green Machine Why do you think the SF vote will be split in South Belfast. Are you thinking that some will vote for a candidate other than Hanna, or that they will just stay at home. I would have thought that given SF have endorsed Hanna and there is a good chance of beating a DUPer that SF voters wouldn't be split, but interested in your take.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite liteor both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
I’m hoping for a re-alignment of the centre-right post-independence. I would love it if centre-right activists and supporters from the SNP, Lib Dems and Tories pooled resources and built a new, powerful party to lead the country, or at least keep social democrats under scrutiny.
(What the new party call ourselves is a detail, albeit an interesting one.)
I would be same.
You astonish me Malcolm. I never realised there was any kind of political view with you could actually concur. What's more it turns out to be broadly similar to my own. This means that in theory at least we could become members of the same Party.
This is not a relationship I had ever envisaged but maybe we could work on it.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
I grew up in the Seventies too. We didn't have homeless people sleeping in every city centre doorway then.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Led by Corbyn. TINA. Forget anything that Swinson has said about not putting JC into office, that's for the consumption of Tory-LD floating voters and will be cast aside as soon as the polling stations close.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
Well, probably. But that does require Swinson and many of her MPs to have been fast asleep during the Coalition years. I suspect the penalty at the ballot box for enabling Corbyn from this point would be greater than for the tuition fees debacle.
Lib Dems will not support Corbyn or Johnson in coalition or confidence and supply. The membership and defections from both Tory and Lab parliamentary parties will prevent that.
A hung parliament would be headed to new elections in the spring with new Lab and possibly Con leaderships.
Presumably they will have to accept (*) someone as PM or we would crash out no deal on Jan 31? That person may have to be Corbyn. Are they being clear enough on that with members, supporters and voters or lining up another broken promises meme?
Accept = not bring down as opposed to actively support through coalition or c&s
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
My thoughts on where to put your X.
1. Worst option Boris Johnson with a majority
2. Second worst option a Jeremy Corbyn majority
3. Best option anything that prevents one and two.
4. So In Scotland SNP
5. In NI anyone who who has the best chance of beating the DUP
6. In England the party who has the best chance of beating the Tories because Corbyn can't win a majority and without one he would no longer be leader
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
I want to believe this, but it just isn't going to happen, at least not under FPTP. You vote once for a minority party, then once you see how far behind the party is in your constituency, you end up voting for one of the top two, or possibly the third party, ever after.
10 years ago, the greens might have gained 10-15% if there had been any kind of PR, but in 2010 they go just 1 voice out of 650 in parliament. In the 80s many of the new voters hoped the Alliance would "break the mould" but got around 20-30 MPs. This time around, the LDs will still have less MPs than the SNP, even if they have a fantastic election.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Exept, don't be surprised to find that conservative green politics and social democratic values is exactly what Boris delivers.....
Ssshhh don’t tell Pritti, Raab and the headbangers.
Weird interview with Priti on the BBC the other day. Seemed to be projecting increased immigration. Just not from Europe.
That is what a (small but real) block of leave voters voted for. Impossible to satisfy all the leave promises and the reason a big majority Tory govt probably leads to eventual Corbynism.
The anti-Corbynites are perversely better served by a Labour tight coalition govt where he is either forced to step down or impotent.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
I don't dispute that there are areas of society that life can and should be improved upon. My main point is that a lot of energy being wasted on angst about things that haven't happened yet and might never happen.
We would have used food banks had they been available then. We did receive some charitable assistance in that we were housed for a few nights in a shelter when things got really bad but that type of help was quite rare in them days.
Your comment “Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. ” seemed a tad dismissive.
All analysis of Brexit say we will be worse off. The pie will shrink. In my experience the poorest alway suffer most when that happens. That’s what’s on offer at this election.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
My thoughts on where to put your X.
1. Worst option Boris Johnson with a majority
2. Second worst option a Jeremy Corbyn majority
3. Best option anything that prevents one and two.
4. So In Scotland SNP
5. In NI anyone who who has the best chance of beating the DUP
6. In England the party who has the best chance of beating the Tories because Corbyn can't win a majority and without one he would no longer be leader
History would show that a Jeremy Corbyn majority would be the worst option imaginable.
Those who don't think so have insufficient imagination.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The b
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
SNIP
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
Good morning
I am far from convinced the Scots will vote for independence.
The idea that the Scots will break away from their main market and install a Berwick to Carlisle border is far from certain but there will be many thousands more issues to enable a divorce of our 400 year old relationship
Additionally on a yes vote where does Scotland end up. I assume the Scots would want to join Brussels without a vacant period, but has anyone even found out if the EU would support Scotland thereby encouraging separarist movements across Europe.
I respect the SNP for many good things it has undertaken and maybe another referendum will be held someday, but unlikely before 2022. A lot of things will happen between now and then and for this pro union supporter I would far rather see a federal arrangement with Scotland as a sensible compromise.
Scots have to have more powers to be fair
52 Yes 48 No and Boris says that's not good enough for separation is my forecast!
His arse , we are not slaves to be told what we can and cannot do by a fat lying buffoon
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
A 'thumping Tory majority' would be an elective dictatorship and no mistake!
I dont like the idea of anyone with a thumping majority, a view I've held from long before the current leaderships came about. At the very least I think it leads to slipping into bad behaviours, and it can be much worse. But I dislike it being termed elective dictatorship as though it's not merely undesirable but illegitimate in some way.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
I think not understanding how lucky and fortunate we are is a poor reflection on us but also bad for mental health. It definitely shouldnt stop us striving for better and fairer but some context, understanding and less hyperbole from all sides would be very much welcome and help us towards finding more common ground and solutions.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
My thoughts on where to put your X.
1. Worst option Boris Johnson with a majority
2. Second worst option a Jeremy Corbyn majority
3. Best option anything that prevents one and two.
4. So In Scotland SNP
5. In NI anyone who who has the best chance of beating the DUP
6. In England the party who has the best chance of beating the Tories because Corbyn can't win a majority and without one he would no longer be leader
I'm at the stage where I'd be prepared to settle for a very narrow Johnson victory. Something like 1992 or narrower. The kind that will make his life for the next 5 years hell and lead to his eventual thumping in a Labour landslide under an electable moderate leader.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
Have been looking at the tables for last night's YouGov, and they're largely as one would expect with one or two caveats.
+ The 2017 Labour vote appears much softer than that for the Tories and Lib Dems + The net churn between Con and LD voters is roughly zero - actually, the published data are marginally in favour of the Tories. The Lib Dem upturn is effectively the product of Labour defections + Labour is doing very well in the 18-24 age group, 25-49 is a statistical tie, the over 50s break strongly for the Tories and they dominate with pensioners + The Lib Dems do best amongst the middle age groups, and are not that far short of a plurality amongst Remainers (unsurprisingly, their support amongst Leavers is close to zero) + Social class has become a much weaker predictor of voting intention: the main difference between the ABC1 and C2DE groups is now seen in the levels of backing for the smaller parties + The regional sub-samples are too small to be worth much comment, though FWIW they show Con and Lab as level pegging in the North of England and something not too far away from a rule of doubles in Scotland (Lab x2 = Con, Con x2 = SNP.) There are no separate figures for Wales.
There are all sorts of interesting questions tacked into the back of the VI survey, which I won't cover exhaustively but contain crumbs of comfort for both main parties. There's significant support for renationalisation and for soaking the rich on the one hand; on the other more of those surveyed thought Corbyn was extreme than said the same of Johnson, more people thought that their taxes would go up under Labour, and more thought a recession likely under Labour.
Labour needs Boris to stuff up in the debates, a conveniently-timed NHS Winter crisis and a mass return of the tribal loyalty vote to get them through this election. If the Conservatives can keep the focus on delivering Brexit and economic competence then they may just be able to pull this off.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
Imagine Scotland has been occupied by the French and there are elections to the National Assembly. Can you not see the attraction of voting for candidates who will refuse to legitimise the Occupation by not taking up their seats? There are bigger issues than Brexit for some people and Irish Nationalists will be content that their government in Dublin is representing them in the Brexit negotiations.
Abstentionism can make sense, but northern Ireland does have and has at times voted for nationalist alternatives, it's not like that community has always in a unified way decided upon abstentionism.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
I don't buy this "Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky". There might be people who earn a basic income who get sky, but if you are struggling to pay for food for the kids or pay the rent, you don't buy sky tv. Even if you have a subscription and then get laid off, the after a couple of months of not paying it gets cut off.
As for mobiles. If you are trying to find a way to get soe kind of work for 8 hours tomorrow, you have to be contactable by mobile phone. And a non-smartphone on pay as you go has not been expensive for a long time. So having no phone makes you poorer.
If I am reading this correctly the DUP are likely to be a slightly larger bloc in the next Parliament than this one. Boris will be praying he does not need their aid.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
David, get real. We have 35 SNP politicians who are derided and ignored and Scotland is treated like crap. What difference do you think 7 NI catholic MP's would make under same circumstances.
Some crucial votes would have been swung by 7 other mps being there.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
A 'thumping Tory majority' would be an elective dictatorship and no mistake!
I dont like the idea of anyone with a thumping majority, a view I've held from long before the current leaderships came about. At the very least I think it leads to slipping into bad behaviours, and it can be much worse. But I dislike it being termed elective dictatorship as though it's not merely undesirable but illegitimate in some way.
Well. I wouldnt say it is illegitimate but it very much is illegitimate in "some way"!
The system shouldnt reward someone with so much power on a clear minority of the votes. We should have some protection in place from a tyrannical PM - not saying Johnson is or will become one but parliament being completely sovereign yet capable of giving huge majorities on 30% of the vote is a valid legitimacy problem.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Doesn't the idea of having a mendacious amoral mini-me Trump as PM repulse you? It does me. For all the inadequacies of previous PMs we have never had one with the faults of Johnson. Whatever else the PM does he or she sets the tone and Johnson would do to us what Trump has done to the US and our reputation internationally will be trashed.
A good Guardian article describing how the economic and social changes which led to Brexit (which is of course no solution to them) exist across Europe:
“The city provides financiers, lawyers, designers, artists, culture, everything required to be a modern international hub. It has a monopoly on the high-end services that command the highest prices, and the rest of Italy has to pay those prices. In fashion it sits on top of a long global chain that has low-paid garment workers in Vietnam at the bottom. The problem is that this miracle in Milan only really involves the million or so people at its very heart. The city has shaken off the industrial hinterland that made it great in the 20th century. In the end this creates a problem of dignity for other places...
The idea that Britain should become the European Singapore is really no different, and no less idiotic than saying it should become Milan, or London.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
I grew up in the Seventies too. We didn't have homeless people sleeping in every city centre doorway then.
If I am reading this correctly the DUP are likely to be a slightly larger bloc in the next Parliament than this one. Boris will be praying he does not need their aid.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
David, get real. We have 35 SNP politicians who are derided and ignored and Scotland is treated like crap. What difference do you think 7 NI catholic MP's would make under same circumstances.
Some crucial votes would have been swung by 7 other mps being there.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
I disagree, we don’t know.
We have no idea what a Labour administration would look like.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale?
Have been looking at the tables for last night's YouGov, and they're largely as one would expect with one or two caveats.
+ The 2017 Labour vote appears much softer than that for the Tories and Lib Dems + The net churn between Con and LD voters is roughly zero - actually, the published data are marginally in favour of the Tories. The Lib Dem upturn is effectively the product of Labour defections + Labour is doing very well in the 18-24 age group, 25-49 is a statistical tie, the over 50s break strongly for the Tories and they dominate with pensioners + The Lib Dems do best amongst the middle age groups, and are not that far short of a plurality amongst Remainers (unsurprisingly, their support amongst Leavers is close to zero) + Social class has become a much weaker predictor of voting intention: the main difference between the ABC1 and C2DE groups is now seen in the levels of backing for the smaller parties + The regional sub-samples are too small to be worth much comment, though FWIW they show Con and Lab as level pegging in the North of England and something not too far away from a rule of doubles in Scotland (Lab x2 = Con, Con x2 = SNP.) There are no separate figures for Wales.
There are all sorts of interesting questions tacked into the back of the VI survey, which I won't cover exhaustively but contain crumbs of comfort for both main parties. There's significant support for renationalisation and for soaking the rich on the one hand; on the other more of those surveyed thought Corbyn was extreme than said the same of Johnson, more people thought that their taxes would go up under Labour, and more thought a recession likely under Labour.
Labour needs Boris to stuff up in the debates, a conveniently-timed NHS Winter crisis and a mass return of the tribal loyalty vote to get them through this election. If the Conservatives can keep the focus on delivering Brexit and economic competence then they may just be able to pull this off.
25-49 is a statistical tie - that is really bad news for Labour....
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
As Stuart says, Lib Dems will do nothing with Tory ( I want to be English ) Swinson and useless Willie as leaders
The (I want to be english) bit is new - what's behind that?
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
I don't buy this "Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky". There might be people who earn a basic income who get sky, but if you are struggling to pay for food for the kids or pay the rent, you don't buy sky tv. Even if you have a subscription and then get laid off, the after a couple of months of not paying it gets cut off.
As for mobiles. If you are trying to find a way to get soe kind of work for 8 hours tomorrow, you have to be contactable by mobile phone. And a non-smartphone on pay as you go has not been expensive for a long time. So having no phone makes you poorer.
One of the problems here is the definition of poverty. In day to day language terms you are right, very few will have Sky.
In official statistic terms we declare 20% of the UK population as in poverty, quite a few of those will have sky and a reasonable share a TV pay subscription service of some flavour.
The 20% of the UK population we declare are in poverty would also nearly all be in the top 20% richest if we looked at the world population!
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Doesn't the idea of having a mendacious amoral mini-me Trump as PM repulse you? It does me. For all the inadequacies of previous PMs we have never had one with the faults of Johnson. Whatever else the PM does he or she sets the tone and Johnson would do to us what Trump has done to the US and our reputation internationally will be trashed.
Not as much as the idea of Jeremy Corbyn being PM repulses me. And, we've had worse PM's than Johnson.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
That generation is not obsessed with Israel and the Middle East. Labour will start representing them when the leadership begins to understand that.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Led by Corbyn. TINA. Forget anything that Swinson has said about not putting JC into office, that's for the consumption of Tory-LD floating voters and will be cast aside as soon as the polling stations close.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
Well, probably. But that does require Swinson and many of her MPs to have been fast asleep during the Coalition years. I suspect the penalty at the ballot box for enabling Corbyn from this point would be greater than for the tuition fees debacle.
Lib Dems will not support Corbyn or Johnson in coalition or confidence and supply. The membership and defections from both Tory and Lab parliamentary parties will prevent that.
A hung parliament would be headed to new elections in the spring with new Lab and possibly Con leaderships.
Where no deal might be on the table? The LDs would really allow that?
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
My thoughts on where to put your X.
1. Worst option Boris Johnson with a majority
2. Second worst option a Jeremy Corbyn majority
3. Best option anything that prevents one and two.
4. So In Scotland SNP
5. In NI anyone who who has the best chance of beating the DUP
6. In England the party who has the best chance of beating the Tories because Corbyn can't win a majority and without one he would no longer be leader
History would show that a Jeremy Corbyn majority would be the worst option imaginable.
Those who don't think so have insufficient imagination.
Perhaps they are not just diehard tory supporters?
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
I grew up in the Seventies too. We didn't have homeless people sleeping in every city centre doorway then.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Doesn't the idea of having a mendacious amoral mini-me Trump as PM repulse you? It does me. For all the inadequacies of previous PMs we have never had one with the faults of Johnson. Whatever else the PM does he or she sets the tone and Johnson would do to us what Trump has done to the US and our reputation internationally will be trashed.
Not as much as the idea of Jeremy Corbyn being PM repulses me. And, we've had worse PM's than Johnson.
As far as I’m aware, no other Prime Minister has tried to suspend democracy to force through a policy that no one voted for that would have caused short term chaos and profound and long lasting effects. Boris Johnson is by some distance the worst Prime Minister Britain has ever had.
All this doom and gloom! I'm actually hopeful for the future. Sure, the next few years will be utter shite, but every year will bring a new crop of young voters, all energised by the likes of Thunberg and XR. They will vote differently to us, and we will see a big change. Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems are all old hat, out of touch and singing the same old tunes. Their days are numbered. They either evolve or die, and I don't see much evidence of evolution in them at the minute.
TBH I'd say Labour is representing that generation, Labours problem ultimately is with those over 45 or more specifically over 60. I'm not saying this should happen but if you take away the over 60's Labour would get an easy majority. It is not the young coming through that is their problem but the older voters. It is a promising sign for Labours future but the boomer generation has a large say still.
You have to appeal to the electorate that is. Not the electorate that you want.
More broadly, I'm not convinced by the "it'll all be different once the old farts die off" narrative. It assumes that people's opinions and priorities become set in stone by the age of 25 and will never change as they themselves get older.
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
Hearing lib dems.have pulled all resource out of two Harrow seats to focus on getting Dorothy elected in Watford. They also really think Sutton and Cheam.in serious play and Mole valley(Paul Beresfords)
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
A 'thumping Tory majority' would be an elective dictatorship and no mistake!
I dont like the idea of anyone with a thumping majority, a y.
Well. I wouldnt say it is illegitimate but it very much is illegitimate in "some way"!
The system shouldnt reward someone with so much power on a clear minority of the votes. We should have some protection in place from a tyrannical PM - not saying Johnson is or will become one but parliament being completely sovereign yet capable of giving huge majorities on 30% of the vote is a valid legitimacy problem.
Its why i support some form of pr. But use if the term dictatorship is just too strong for me because it implies much more than a voting system too easily giving one faction a large majority.
Lots of people dislike Johnson (I'm not his biggest fan) but if he does win, lets give him a chance. The country needs to stop stressing about things that haven't happened yet because that is the main cause of the division we have. Same with Brexit, let's see what actually happens.
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
Things might be better for you, but people are definitely using food banks today. So perhaps you could channel your experience towards compassion and understanding. The variation of wealth today is vast.
I grew up in the Seventies too. We didn't have homeless people sleeping in every city centre doorway then.
In the Eighties and Nineties we did.
Not to the extent that we do in Leicester now.
In London I would say the Nineties were worst but we are back to similar having seemingly solved "street" homelessness in the Noughties.
Enough Sunday ranting, it’s a horrible situation. All irrelevant anyway. Unless something happens Boris will win big. The left is split. We’ll have 5/10 years of right wing populism laced with ideological nonsense. It will do a lot of harm.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Exept, don't be surprised to find that conservative green politics and social democratic values is exactly what Boris delivers.....
The party of hard right English nationalism, of Rees Mogg, Francois, Bridgen, Raab and Patel, of Singapore on Thames and cuddling up to Donald Trump is not going to deliver anything remotely resembling social democracy.
Comments
A hung parliament would be headed to new elections in the spring with new Lab and possibly Con leaderships.
Every Labour defeat come election night is to be celebrated, and that absolutely includes victories by the SNP. Scottish independence is a disaster for the Scottish unionists and the demented Trots but a win for everybody else under current circumstances.
If Labour were a spent rump of half-a-dozen Liverpudlian militants and the main opposition were a bunch of social democrats then things might be very different, but that is not the reality in which we live. It must be kept away from power until it comes to its senses or is replaced. All else, including Brexit and the territorial integrity of the UK, is secondary.
The Tories can and have got rid of underperforming leaders in a fairly ruthless fashion (Thatcher, IDS, and May) but the only Labour leader I can think of who was forced out was Blair.
(What the new party call ourselves is a detail, albeit an interesting one.)
In the case of Foot and Miliband, they both jumped before being pushed. Possibly Kinnock as well.
TBH though I think expectations are the key. Kinnock wasn’t expected to win in 1987 but he ran a good campaign and strengthened Labour considerably, so he stayed. Heath threw away a majority for no good reason and clearly didn’t have a clue how to get it back, so he was removed. Miliband lost when he and everyone else expected him to win.
Still, if this is as close as I think it might be, every one will count.
I suspect (without knowing much about it) that change may come more through generational evolution within the DUP and Sinn Fein (as to some extent seems to have happened with SF) is more likely to achieve a change than the growth of newer parties. Or is that a misreading of the outlook?
I am far from convinced the Scots will vote for independence.
The idea that the Scots will break away from their main market and install a Berwick to Carlisle border is far from certain but there will be many thousands more issues to enable a divorce of our 400 year old relationship
Additionally on a yes vote where does Scotland end up. I assume the Scots would want to join Brussels without a vacant period, but has anyone even found out if the EU would support Scotland thereby encouraging separarist movements across Europe.
I respect the SNP for many good things it has undertaken and maybe another referendum will be held someday, but unlikely before 2022. A lot of things will happen between now and then and for this pro union supporter I would far rather see a federal arrangement with Scotland as a sensible compromise.
Scots have to have more powers to be fair
May and Brown were dire, but breaking the law and lying to the monarch were beyond even their ultra-dud talents.
The last four polls average Con 40%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 16%, TBP 8%.
Eventually politics will be forced to reinvent some new more moderate force to pick up the pieces. It will take time. My hunch is something centred around conservative green politics and social democratic values.
Who will replace him? My contention is that defeated leaders get little influence in their succession. It is very likely to be a winner from a different faction, probably female and pro-EU. My money is on Jess Phillips, though Angela Rayner is also possible.
I need to send a case of champagne to a company that did well on an arrangment recently - recommended something of which I was doubtful and succeeded.
Guess the budget is £20-25 a bottle -ish.
Can anyone recommend something tasty and not a mass-looking label. English Sparkling would be a great alternative, but I am not quite up for £35-40 a bottle, which I may need for that.
Recommendations welcome.
Cheers.
I saw your comment last night (thanks), and the weight of evidence is that you are incorrect.
Although the Auld Alliance was going through a quiet phase at the time of Agincourt, it was hardly void. The weight of evidence is that it is highly likely that individual Scottish knights, and even possibly a modest Scottish unit, fought under French royal command at Agincourt. Certainly, in the aftermath of the defeat, the Scots sent approx 15,000 troops to France to assist their allies, initially very successfully.
So “we” is nonsense. Although not as nonsensical as when Scots say “we” in reference to the Armada, where Scots support for the Spanish is well-documented. Not that the BBC and other diddies care for inconveniences like historical fact.
If Labour get into Downing Street, it is almost certain it will not be as a majority, but at the head of a rainbow coalition of Labour, SNP, LibDems and Plaid Cymru.
The price for the SNP joining that coalition will be a second referendum. The SNP think "do it now" because Brexit gives them a greater chance of independence. Being dragged out the EU against the wishes of the Scots gives them the moral highground, the extra impetus to deliver what they could not in 2014. But propping up a Labour Govt. risks killing their Golden Goose of Brexit happening. So - huh?
The price for the LibDems joining that coalition will be doing all it can to overtun Brexit. They would claim that as the LibDems having delivered it. But to do that, they will have to work with the SNP which is working for an independent Scotland.
So how do the LibDems get away in Scotland with not being seen as at least collaborators with those who will end the Union? How do they sell themselves as a Unionist Party? Again - huh?
Why will the SCons not be seen as the sole Unionist party to vote for on 12th December?
It isn't quite the sale of half a million books :-), though a good piece of advice.
I know what I pay for champagne or prosecco that I like, and it does not include half the price for the label. Unless I am flying business and it is included.
Budget amended to £25 a bottle !
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Verneuil
David is right on one point though - James I served in France under Henry V and later under Bedford. It was part of his captivity in England from 1406-24. That was very useful for Henry, as it meant any Scottish soldiers he captured could be dragged before their king, convicted of treason and beheaded.
https://www.majestic.co.uk/sparkling-wines/chapel-down-brut-23289
We still carry the debt from that debacle and the two largest parties are now vying to heap Pelion upon Ossa in Johnson’s case, and in Corbyn's to rewrite the economic textbooks in red crayon.
https://www.laithwaites.co.uk/product/White-PRD+Sparkling+Wine/Fili+Prosecco-NV/2631517
I've seen Three Choirs wines in Majestic, too.
https://www.waitrosecellar.com/all-wines/popular-regions/three-choirs-vineyards-classic-cuve
On Foyle, is Eastwood well positioned for DUP switchers ? He got criticized for being a pallbearer at an IRA funeral (probably unfairly given it was a friend of his) and his views on abortion and Brexit would be at odds with the DUP's base. And he isn't up against Martin McGuinness. In fact from a Brexit perspective, a Brexiteer is better off with the Shinners than the SDLP !
If it is as bad as some are saying then it is inevitable that a party that has a policy of renewing closer ties with Europe will be elected.
When I grew up in the 70s, I experienced real poverty. We didn't have food banks - we went hungry. The generation before had it even tougher after the war.
Most people experiencing 'poverty' today have Sky, mobiles, the latest trainers. When I was part of a one parent family in the 70s, I wore shoes with elastic bands and we didn't have a TV. When we did get one, you had to put 50p in it to watch it and when that ran out it switched itself off.
Yes, there are lots things that could be better now. But things are miles better now than they have been in even the fairly recent past, and even then I don't recall the whinging and whining that we have to put up with these days.
We would have used food banks had they been available then. We did receive some charitable assistance in that we were housed for a few nights in a shelter when things got really bad but that type of help was quite rare in them days.
Why do you think the SF vote will be split in South Belfast. Are you thinking that some will vote for a candidate other than Hanna, or that they will just stay at home. I would have thought that given SF have endorsed Hanna and there is a good chance of beating a DUPer that SF voters wouldn't be split, but interested in your take.
This is not a relationship I had ever envisaged but maybe we could work on it.
Accept = not bring down as opposed to actively support through coalition or c&s
1. Worst option Boris Johnson with a majority
2. Second worst option a Jeremy Corbyn majority
3. Best option anything that prevents one and two.
4. So In Scotland SNP
5. In NI anyone who who has the best chance of beating the DUP
6. In England the party who has the best chance of beating the Tories because Corbyn can't win a majority and without one he would no longer be leader
10 years ago, the greens might have gained 10-15% if there had been any kind of PR, but in 2010 they go just 1 voice out of 650 in parliament. In the 80s many of the new voters hoped the Alliance would "break the mould" but got around 20-30 MPs. This time around, the LDs will still have less MPs than the SNP, even if they have a fantastic election.
The anti-Corbynites are perversely better served by a Labour tight coalition govt where he is either forced to step down or impotent.
All analysis of Brexit say we will be worse off. The pie will shrink. In my experience the poorest alway suffer most when that happens. That’s what’s on offer at this election.
Those who don't think so have insufficient imagination.
The trouble is, you can't play the GE like this.
+ The 2017 Labour vote appears much softer than that for the Tories and Lib Dems
+ The net churn between Con and LD voters is roughly zero - actually, the published data are marginally in favour of the Tories. The Lib Dem upturn is effectively the product of Labour defections
+ Labour is doing very well in the 18-24 age group, 25-49 is a statistical tie, the over 50s break strongly for the Tories and they dominate with pensioners
+ The Lib Dems do best amongst the middle age groups, and are not that far short of a plurality amongst Remainers (unsurprisingly, their support amongst Leavers is close to zero)
+ Social class has become a much weaker predictor of voting intention: the main difference between the ABC1 and C2DE groups is now seen in the levels of backing for the smaller parties
+ The regional sub-samples are too small to be worth much comment, though FWIW they show Con and Lab as level pegging in the North of England and something not too far away from a rule of doubles in Scotland (Lab x2 = Con, Con x2 = SNP.) There are no separate figures for Wales.
There are all sorts of interesting questions tacked into the back of the VI survey, which I won't cover exhaustively but contain crumbs of comfort for both main parties. There's significant support for renationalisation and for soaking the rich on the one hand; on the other more of those surveyed thought Corbyn was extreme than said the same of Johnson, more people thought that their taxes would go up under Labour, and more thought a recession likely under Labour.
Labour needs Boris to stuff up in the debates, a conveniently-timed NHS Winter crisis and a mass return of the tribal loyalty vote to get them through this election. If the Conservatives can keep the focus on delivering Brexit and economic competence then they may just be able to pull this off.
There might be people who earn a basic income who get sky, but if you are struggling to pay for food for the kids or pay the rent, you don't buy sky tv. Even if you have a subscription and then get laid off, the after a couple of months of not paying it gets cut off.
As for mobiles. If you are trying to find a way to get soe kind of work for 8 hours tomorrow, you have to be contactable by mobile phone. And a non-smartphone on pay as you go has not been expensive for a long time. So having no phone makes you poorer.
The system shouldnt reward someone with so much power on a clear minority of the votes. We should have some protection in place from a tyrannical PM - not saying Johnson is or will become one but parliament being completely sovereign yet capable of giving huge majorities on 30% of the vote is a valid legitimacy problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/nov/10/how-europes-cities-stole-continents-wealth
“It was big cities like Milan, not nation states, which benefited most from the great wave of integration that came with the European single market,” Camagni says.
“The city provides financiers, lawyers, designers, artists, culture, everything required to be a modern international hub. It has a monopoly on the high-end services that command the highest prices, and the rest of Italy has to pay those prices. In fashion it sits on top of a long global chain that has low-paid garment workers in Vietnam at the bottom. The problem is that this miracle in Milan only really involves the million or so people at its very heart. The city has shaken off the industrial hinterland that made it great in the 20th century. In the end this creates a problem of dignity for other places...
The idea that Britain should become the European Singapore is really no different, and no less idiotic than saying it should become Milan, or London.
In official statistic terms we declare 20% of the UK population as in poverty, quite a few of those will have sky and a reasonable share a TV pay subscription service of some flavour.
The 20% of the UK population we declare are in poverty would also nearly all be in the top 20% richest if we looked at the world population!
The main generational challenge to the Right isn't the inevitable match of tens of millions of Greta Thunberg clones. It's the failure to enable home ownership. Get the houses built, enough of them and in the right locations to make them affordable for the young, and you solve the problem.
If anything brings about the Revolution, it will be a combination of inertia and Nimbyism.
They also really think Sutton and Cheam.in serious play and Mole valley(Paul Beresfords)