politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?
A lot has happened since the 2017 election and the Northern Ireland Executive has been out of office for 3 years now, What will we see this in the election!?
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I dont see how they could unless the tories lack a majority but still have enough to pass a deal and defeat a VONC without the dup. At which point the latter can say they will oppose on Brexit issues but since the tories are safe on brexit they might as well get some dosh from them, and the tories wo t want every vote to be as tight as a Brexit vote so fork up.
So tories around 319-324 depending on SDLP numbers can see a DUP arrangement. Less than that and the DUP are critical to survival and would demand the tories drop their deal.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly, so not only may not be working on public it might prove an own goal.
Good news is there are moderate trustworthy think tanks and media who will calculate the manifestos and eye boggling spending commitments from both sides, so we will get some semblance of truth and whether manifesto costs balance in the next couple of weeks. The other thing to watch out for is how experts relate the fine details to what happened in the past when government thought it good idea to splurge. Too much splurge too quickly can have side effects, overheating economy, inflation, boom bust.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
Sadly it’s unlikely to get better any time soon, especially with social media advertising and targeting.
Ironically, the best chance of getting it sorted out is that the US election next year is a complete and utter sh!t-show, leading to cross-party support for bringing Facebook and Google down a peg or two.
The regular TV networks also need to up their game, the reduction of everything to 10-second soundbites and clickbait headlines is not informing people in any meaningful way.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
Sadly it’s unlikely to get better any time soon, especially with social media advertising and targeting.
Ironically, the best chance of getting it sorted out is that the US election next year is a complete and utter sh!t-show, leading to cross-party support for bringing Facebook and Google down a peg or two.
The regular TV networks also need to up their game, the reduction of everything to 10-second soundbites and clickbait headlines is not informing people in any meaningful way.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
"Badly let slip "by cameron is a bit harsh. In the 2010-2015 government, the LDs pulled their support for the boundary changes because the toriies scuppered the House of Lord's reform. In his 2015-2016 window the plan was to bring in the boundary reforms later in the 5 year parliament. The following 4 years he was no longer in politics.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
I am not so sure on the boundary changes given where the Tory majority is likely to come from. You’d be asking a lot of newly-elected MPs in midlands and northern seats to vote themselves out of a job.
I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Just a detail for folk furth of the Tweed, but the long delay in the implementation of the boundary changes was the work of one Ms Ruth Davidson. She knew it’d heavily assist the SNP.
With Captain Ruth out the way, and zero leadership worth the name in Scotchland, the buffoons in London with sail blithely into yet another self-made storm.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
Mr. Machine, I'll have a look and perhaps back the SDLP for Foyle (depending on odds). I'm mostly staying out of betting on the General Election, but this seems a bit less related to Boris Johnson buggering anything up.
Of course, if people like their tips ill-informed, I've backed all three Premier League matches to be draws today (individually, and with a mini-accumulator). They're all about 3.5, or were yesterday evening.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
Yes voting against Corbyn is a must, its not a vote for Boris, just to stop Corbyn. Least worst alternative..
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
Yes voting against Corbyn is a must, its not a vote for Boris, just to stop Corbyn. Least worst alternative..
TBH, I'm not sure about that. Corbyn's not as personally flawed as Boris, and he definitely doesn't appear as selfish.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
If I am reading this correctly the DUP are likely to be a slightly larger bloc in the next Parliament than this one. Boris will be praying he does not need their aid.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
Yes voting against Corbyn is a must, its not a vote for Boris, just to stop Corbyn. Least worst alternative..
TBH, I'm not sure about that. Corbyn's not as personally flawed as Boris, and he definitely doesn't appear as selfish.
I would disagree with both those statements. And that is not said in any starry-eyed admiration of the current encumbrance of Downing Street.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
A 'thumping Tory majority' would be an elective dictatorship and no mistake!
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
Yes voting against Corbyn is a must, its not a vote for Boris, just to stop Corbyn. Least worst alternative..
TBH, I'm not sure about that. Corbyn's not as personally flawed as Boris, and he definitely doesn't appear as selfish.
The fact that Corbyn is still Labour leader shows that he is every bit as selfish as Johnson. I would say he is less personally ambitious in that he’d be happy for any anti-Semitic member of the far left to be in charge, but that is different.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
I keep thinking of the Claudius strategy - "let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out."
Perhaps we need to through a few years of Johnson/Nero with a majority before people come to their senses.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Give me Brown over any of this in a heartbeat.
Agreed. And I never, ever thought I would say that.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
I have no special insight, but I wondered about that too.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
A 'thumping Tory majority' would be an elective dictatorship and no mistake!
That's why getting rid of Bojo the Clown needs to be part of it.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yep, I agree. The one small consolation of the coming years - and I can say this as someone who will be largely shielded from them on a personal level - is that Johnson and the Tories will own them entirely. There will be no doubt about who to blame.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
They're all spineless, gutless cowards. If Corbyn gets a majority they'll all apologise profusely for ever having doubts, and meekly follow him into the division lobbies every chance they get.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
Yes, the priority has to be stopping more of this, but given Corbyn is worse we can't. That option is not on offer. Even as part of a coalition he would be far more divisive and dangerous than Johnson.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
You are being very generous to a cabinet that contains the likes of Patel, Williamson, Hancock and Truss. I take the point on the Labour front bench, but I see nothing on the Tory one to indicate it is any better.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
I disagree, we don’t know.
We have no idea what a Labour administration would look like. As with any election, it’s the risk of change vs. the problems we have. Since we know for sure that this government Is utterly chaotic, engages in Machiavellian bullshit and will act unlawfully to force its will, it has to go.
The only question is what we replace it with and how you mitigate the risks.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
As a general rule, governments lose elections rather than oppositions win them.
I predict a low turnout though, not so much weather, but Bored of Brexit which may make things unpredictable.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Give me Brown over any of this in a heartbeat.
Here is a wild prediction.
Johnson would be a better PM than May or Brown.
Since he has acted unlawfully, he has already failed that test.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
"Mickey Brady (S.F) is hugely popular and very well liked in this part of the country and there’s not too much to say other than he’ll be getting a very nice wage for at least another few years."
Good article but a small a correction needed here. Sinn Fein MPs do NOT get the MP's salary or pension. Only MPs taking their seats are entitled to that. They do get office expenses for constituency staff (for local casework) etc. They also get some expenses to travel to London and some claim accommodation allowance. So they aren't averse to taking a cheque from the Westminster oppressors, but aren't actually getting the salary.
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
You are being very generous to a cabinet that contains the likes of Patel, Williamson, Hancock and Truss. I take the point on the Labour front bench, but I see nothing on the Tory one to indicate it is any better.
You are mistaken. I am not being generous to the Tory front bench. I am being extremely realistic about how utterly shit the Labour front bench is.
Mr. Machine, I'll have a look and perhaps back the SDLP for Foyle (depending on odds). I'm mostly staying out of betting on the General Election, but this seems a bit less related to Boris Johnson buggering anything up.
Of course, if people like their tips ill-informed, I've backed all three Premier League matches to be draws today (individually, and with a mini-accumulator). They're all about 3.5, or were yesterday evening.
Home wins for Liverpool and Wolves. A dull game at Old Trafford, and probably a draw.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Venezuela. Argentina. Greece.
Thanks Robert, so there is no hope! Nice way to start a Sunday.
On the GE it does appear that the Tory vote is consolidating around the 40% mark and with a bit more squeeze on TBP to come looks pretty likely to match May's figures or thereby. The question is whether Labour will be able to consolidate the anti-Tory vote again in the way that they did in 2017. At the moment this looks very unlikely but a few more predictions of a Tory landslide, as in 2017, might well help them once again.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
I disagree, we don’t know.
We have no idea what a Labour administration would look like.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale?
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in the event of an outright win. I can't remember the exact numbers, but cutting down the numbers of undersized urban and Welsh seats should be worth an extra two or three dozen on their notional majority going into the 2024 election under such circumstances.
As far as what would happen in the event of the Tories falling just short again, I agree that another attempt to make a deal with the DUP seems most improbable. The Tories have managed to unite around Boris Johnson's WA and any attempt to tweak it *again* would simply open all the old wounds. They'd have to accept the inevitable, I think, and hand the keys to No 10 to the wobbly Remain alliance.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
aren't you spreading most of it...
Mysticrose was obviously not around in 1997 or 2001 to see the Labour campaigns back then.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
I disagree, we don’t know.
We have no idea what a Labour administration would look like.
Would you be interested in this bridge I have for sale?
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay? Let’s get the hell out of here.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
You are right, of course. Who was I thinking of? I know the record is four.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
aren't you spreading most of it...
Mysticrose was obviously not around in 1997 or 2001 to see the Labour campaigns back then.
Ah 2001. That famous Labour pledge 'We will never introduce top-up fees and have legislated to prevent them.'
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in the event of an outright win. I can't remember the exact numbers, but cutting down the numbers of undersized urban and Welsh seats should be worth an extra two or three dozen on their notional majority going into the 2024 election under such circumstances.
As far as what would happen in the event of the Tories falling just short again, I agree that another attempt to make a deal with the DUP seems most improbable. The Tories have managed to unite around Boris Johnson's WA and any attempt to tweak it *again* would simply open all the old wounds. They'd have to accept the inevitable, I think, and hand the keys to No 10 to the wobbly Remain alliance.
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
I genuinely dread the years to come. Labour’s enablement of Johnson with all the anger and chaos that will deliver is genuinely unforgiveable. In any other time, that video of him incoherently lying at the meeting in Northern Ireland would have been the end, even before you throw in the dodgy Russian money and the Arcuri case, but because of Corbyn Labour it doesn’t matter. Johnson can say and do as he wishes. He knows he cannot lose. Of course, the lies, the incompetence and the sleaze will all come back to bite over the next few years, but it will be too late and the country will suffer hugely as a result. Labour members’ selfish self-indulgence will reap a terrible price.
The future is indeed bleak, but we have come back from worse. Unfortunately it still has to get worse before it gets better. People have to relearn the consequences of populism, inflated promises and ideological bullshit. But then it will get better.
Yes we have come back from worse. We overcame the disastrous administration of Gordon Brown and its financial consequences.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
Yes voting against Corbyn is a must, its not a vote for Boris, just to stop Corbyn. Least worst alternative..
Both cheeks of the same arse , luckily we have a party with real politicians to vote for.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
As Stuart says, Lib Dems will do nothing with Tory ( I want to be English ) Swinson and useless Willie as leaders
On the GE it does appear that the Tory vote is consolidating around the 40% mark and with a bit more squeeze on TBP to come looks pretty likely to match May's figures or thereby. The question is whether Labour will be able to consolidate the anti-Tory vote again in the way that they did in 2017. At the moment this looks very unlikely but a few more predictions of a Tory landslide, as in 2017, might well help them once again.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
Across most of Britain it is pretty clear which party is the challenger to the Tories, so a split opposition can be quite effective.
At the moment it looks like Con 350 seats to me, with gains in Wales, NE, NW, W Mids, E Mids, counterbalanced by losses in SE, SW, EE and London.
It will be a different Tory parliamentary party, culturally dominated by wealthy southerners, but largely consisting of rookie Northerners. Imagine a party of Esther McVeys.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
Was he? I make it twice: 1868 and 1874-80.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
You are right, of course. Who was I thinking of? I know the record is four.
I think the record for most defeats in a general election as party leader is five, by Disraeli's predecessor Lord Derby. But that's an awkward one because (contra Wiki) in every election from 1846 to 1865 the Protectionists/Conservatives were always the largest single party but the other groups that ultimately coalesced into the Liberal party United to keep them out of power.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
The why is easier than the when. When Disraeli was Prime Minister the choice was truly with the House of Commons and was essentially separate from elections even if elections did affect the result. Gladstone was roundly condemned for speaking in a seat he was not the candidate in. That was the beginning of the rot - so blame Gladstone !
The then national situation still stands with most local councils - I am the candidate at local elections and it is me they vote for - or not - not the Leader of Council. Of course those who want elected mayors had other ideas and maybe like you I don't think they were better ones.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in the event of an outright win. I can't remember the exact numbers, but cutting down the numbers of undersized urban and Welsh seats should be worth an extra two or three dozen on their notional majority going into the 2024 election under such circumstances.
As far as what would happen in the event of the Tories falling just short again, I agree that another attempt to make a deal with the DUP seems most improbable. The Tories have managed to unite around Boris Johnson's WA and any attempt to tweak it *again* would simply open all the old wounds. They'd have to accept the inevitable, I think, and hand the keys to No 10 to the wobbly Remain alliance.
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Led by Corbyn. TINA. Forget anything that Swinson has said about not putting JC into office, that's for the consumption of Tory-LD floating voters and will be cast aside as soon as the polling stations close.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
As Stuart says, Lib Dems will do nothing with Tory ( I want to be English ) Swinson and useless Willie as leaders
If they stood in England, the SNP would possibly win seats.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
If I am reading this correctly the DUP are likely to be a slightly larger bloc in the next Parliament than this one. Boris will be praying he does not need their aid.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
David, get real. We have 35 SNP politicians who are derided and ignored and Scotland is treated like crap. What difference do you think 7 NI catholic MP's would make under same circumstances.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
Vote Labour: not yet conclusively proven as worse than what we have right now. Although all available evidence points to being much worse.
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
We have seen the divisive chaos of a Boris administration. The priority has to be against more of that.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
We do not know iwhat a Corbyn led administration would look like. One dependent on the votes of Benn, Cooper, Hartman, Miliband (etc) to get anything through,
Yes, we do. It would be almost exactly like the one we have now, but even more incoherent because the average IQ would be much lower. For Benn, Cooper (if she survives) I raise you Hammond, Clarke and Gauke.
I disagree, we don’t know.
We have no idea what a Labour administration would look like. As with any election, it’s the risk of change vs. the problems we have. Since we know for sure that this government Is utterly chaotic, engages in Machiavellian bullshit and will act unlawfully to force its will, it has to go.
The only question is what we replace it with and how you mitigate the risks.
We already know that the Executive, who have a lot of power without Parliament, would be a bunch of terrorist-supporting racist throwbacks to the 1970s. That outweighs everything else by some considerable margin.
If Boris Johnson messes up (or should then be when he messes up?) he’ll be quickly replaced with someone intelligent and sensible. The same can’t be said of Corbyn.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
Lib Dems would be much worse , desperate choices for anyone in England but would have to be Corbyn , he is likely to be crap but we already know Boris is really crap so lesser of two evils and most likely to get NOM so best choice.
When (and perhaps more importantly why) did Prime Ministers start stepping down after one electoral defeat? The first PM from an ethnic minority was after all PM four times.
The why is easier than the when. When Disraeli was Prime Minister the choice was truly with the House of Commons and was essentially separate from elections even if elections did affect the result. Gladstone was roundly condemned for speaking in a seat he was not the candidate in. That was the beginning of the rot - so blame Gladstone !
The then national situation still stands with most local councils - I am the candidate at local elections and it is me they vote for - or not - not the Leader of Council. Of course those who want elected mayors had other ideas and maybe like you I don't think they were better ones.
Umm, in Disraeli's time the choice was with the queen. That's why two of his three Victorian successors were peers.
Attlee and Churchill both remained after election defeats, as did Home (for a time) and Wilson. Really, the tradition, such as it is, started with Heath but it wasn't even then always followed - Kinnock 1987 springs to mind. Howard could probably have stayed on in 2005 had he wanted to.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
True. And this has been well-noted by Scots, who are about to punish both the Labour and the Conservative & Unionist parties.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Labour will only have a chance of bouncing back in Scotland after independence IMO.
Same with the Tories.
Unionism seems to
I do not want the UK to break-up, but that’s because I’m English and on the left! I envy the choice that the Scots have. I can see Labour staying Labour post-independence, but what would the Tories call themselves? Conservatives without the Unionist bit?
After Scottish independence, Scottish Unionism would disappear apart from a lunatic fringe, as it did in the Irish Free State. I would expect the SNP to split into at least two parties, probably on urban vs rural lines, with the SLDs and SCons being absorbed in the latter, SLAB in the former.
Labour’s report of Tory spending plans is fake news. Tory report of labour’s spending plans is fake news. And such campaigning is awfully close to remains project fear that bombed so spectacularly,
This is one of the worst elections of my lifetime for fake news and ridiculous press coverage.
It's very depressing.
The best approach is to ignore the promises and predictions and judge the parties on what they have done. Do you want more of current administration, the most chaotic in living memory, one not afraid to act unlawfully to force its will?
The racist liar who waves the Union Jack will always beat the racist liar who doesn’t.
You don’t have to vote for him, regardless of whether he wins this time. Important in this election to register a vote against, it will be useful in the difficult years to come.
So who can we vote for, given Corbyn has all Johnson's faults and quite a few all of his own?
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
Lib Dems would be much worse , desperate choices for anyone in England but would have to be Corbyn , he is likely to be crap but we already know Boris is really crap so lesser of two evils and most likely to get NOM so best choice.
He's not the lesser of two evils Malc. That would be the equivalent of saying Scotland being nuked would be better than being part of the UK, because we haven't tried that yet and it might not be as bad.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
Imagine Scotland has been occupied by the French and there are elections to the National Assembly. Can you not see the attraction of voting for candidates who will refuse to legitimise the Occupation by not taking up their seats? There are bigger issues than Brexit for some people and Irish Nationalists will be content that their government in Dublin is representing them in the Brexit negotiations.
On the GE it does appear that the Tory vote is consolidating around the 40% mark and with a bit more squeeze on TBP to come looks pretty likely to match May's figures or thereby. The question is whether Labour will be able to consolidate the anti-Tory vote again in the way that they did in 2017. At the moment this looks very unlikely but a few more predictions of a Tory landslide, as in 2017, might well help them once again.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
Across most of Britain it is pretty clear which party is the challenger to the Tories, so a split opposition can be quite effective.
At the moment it looks like Con 350 seats to me, with gains in Wales, NE, NW, W Mids, E Mids, counterbalanced by losses in SE, SW, EE and London.
It will be a different Tory parliamentary party, culturally dominated by wealthy southerners, but largely consisting of rookie Northerners. Imagine a party of Esther McVeys.
on the topic of NI and the DUP in particular, have the Tories (No 10 in particular) burned their bridges irrevocably in the event of a NOM Con win? or will we see another attempt to build a condfidence and supply based on a steady supply if cash and vague promises.
I think another C&S agreement between the Tories and the DUP is very unlikely with the distinct cooling of relations on both sides, certainly for as long as Boris remains PM. The numbers just happened to work almost perfectly last time. It would be surprising if this were to be the case again, but you never know. I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
Boundary reform will (or certainly ought to) be the number 2 Tory priority in the event of an outright win. I can't remember the exact numbers, but cutting down the numbers of undersized urban and Welsh seats should be worth an extra two or three dozen on their notional majority going into the 2024 election under such circumstances.
As far as what would happen in the event of the Tories falling just short again, I agree that another attempt to make a deal with the DUP seems most improbable. The Tories have managed to unite around Boris Johnson's WA and any attempt to tweak it *again* would simply open all the old wounds. They'd have to accept the inevitable, I think, and hand the keys to No 10 to the wobbly Remain alliance.
A wobbly Remain alliance, indeed. Led by whom, exactly? Not Corbyn. Also not anyone who isn't leader of the Labour party, barring a complete electoral meltdown. And Corbyn isn't going anywhere - why should he? He's still extremely popular among the members, and that's unlikely to change even if he loses 50+ seats.
Led by Corbyn. TINA. Forget anything that Swinson has said about not putting JC into office, that's for the consumption of Tory-LD floating voters and will be cast aside as soon as the polling stations close.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
Well, probably. But that does require Swinson and many of her MPs to have been fast asleep during the Coalition years. I suspect the penalty at the ballot box for enabling Corbyn from this point would be greater than for the tuition fees debacle.
On the GE it does appear that the Tory vote is consolidating around the 40% mark and with a bit more squeeze on TBP to come looks pretty likely to match May's figures or thereby. The question is whether Labour will be able to consolidate the anti-Tory vote again in the way that they did in 2017. At the moment this looks very unlikely but a few more predictions of a Tory landslide, as in 2017, might well help them once again.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
Across most of Britain it is pretty clear which party is the challenger to the Tories, so a split opposition can be quite effective.
At the moment it looks like Con 350 seats to me, with gains in Wales, NE, NW, W Mids, E Mids, counterbalanced by losses in SE, SW, EE and London.
It will be a different Tory parliamentary party, culturally dominated by wealthy southerners, but largely consisting of rookie Northerners. Imagine a party of Esther McVeys.
Vote Labour in England if in a Lab held seat (and the candidate is not an Anti-semitic Trot), vote LD or Remain Alliance everywhere else. It really is that simple. SNP in Scotland obviously.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
Vote Labour: not yet conclusively proven as worse than what we have right now. Although all available evidence points to being much worse.
Screw it, I'm convinced.
It’s a weak offer, but far better and more sane than rewarding Boris with a majority in the hope that things will improve.
Your current house is flooded, water is pouring through the roof the landlord smashed up and you want to stay?
If the alternative is to move into a house rigged with explosives, with no handles on the doors and an unstable weirdo toying with the detonator switch, yes.
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
You don’t get one by staying and we don’t know for sure what the alternative is, even if you worry about it. So you have to move.
I'm afraid we come back again to the fact that despite your claims we do know what the alternative is. And it's still worse.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
I prefer to accept some risk, over the cast iron certainty over this mad situation continuing or worsening with a majority. Risks you can mitigate.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
On the GE it does appear that the Tory vote is consolidating around the 40% mark and with a bit more squeeze on TBP to come looks pretty likely to match May's figures or thereby. The question is whether Labour will be able to consolidate the anti-Tory vote again in the way that they did in 2017. At the moment this looks very unlikely but a few more predictions of a Tory landslide, as in 2017, might well help them once again.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
One interesting feature of recent polls is the BXP down, but Tories not up much. Churn or now DNV?
Across most of Britain it is pretty clear which party is the challenger to the Tories, so a split opposition can be quite effective.
At the moment it looks like Con 350 seats to me, with gains in Wales, NE, NW, W Mids, E Mids, counterbalanced by losses in SE, SW, EE and London.
It will be a different Tory parliamentary party, culturally dominated by wealthy southerners, but largely consisting of rookie Northerners. Imagine a party of Esther McVeys.
Vote Labour in England if in a Lab held seat (and the candidate is not an Anti-semitic Trot), vote LD or Remain Alliance everywhere else. It really is that simple. SNP in Scotland obviously.
Well quite, you should also vote Lab/Lib in England when they are clearly positioned to defeat the Tory. No point voting Liberal in Hastings. No point voting Labour in Richmond Park.
Comments
I would imagine that the Tories, armed with any sort of majority to their name, will make the implementation of the long overdue boundary changes, badly allowed let slip by Cameron, one of their top priorities.
So tories around 319-324 depending on SDLP numbers can see a DUP arrangement. Less than that and the DUP are critical to survival and would demand the tories drop their deal.
Good news is there are moderate trustworthy think tanks and media who will calculate the manifestos and eye boggling spending commitments from both sides, so we will get some semblance of truth and whether manifesto costs balance in the next couple of weeks. The other thing to watch out for is how experts relate the fine details to what happened in the past when government thought it good idea to splurge. Too much splurge too quickly can have side effects, overheating economy, inflation, boom bust.
It's very depressing.
Ironically, the best chance of getting it sorted out is that the US election next year is a complete and utter sh!t-show, leading to cross-party support for bringing Facebook and Google down a peg or two.
The regular TV networks also need to up their game, the reduction of everything to 10-second soundbites and clickbait headlines is not informing people in any meaningful way.
In the 2010-2015 government, the LDs pulled their support for the boundary changes because the toriies scuppered the House of Lord's reform. In his 2015-2016 window the plan was to bring in the boundary reforms later in the 5 year parliament. The following 4 years he was no longer in politics.
With Captain Ruth out the way, and zero leadership worth the name in Scotchland, the buffoons in London with sail blithely into yet another self-made storm.
Mr. Machine, I'll have a look and perhaps back the SDLP for Foyle (depending on odds). I'm mostly staying out of betting on the General Election, but this seems a bit less related to Boris Johnson buggering anything up.
Of course, if people like their tips ill-informed, I've backed all three Premier League matches to be draws today (individually, and with a mini-accumulator). They're all about 3.5, or were yesterday evening.
The Liberal Democrats? I'd do that with pleasure, but they're not standing.
Neither will get anywhere near the post of FM until and unless they make a sharp turn:
- Labour would need to veer back towards genuine, caring social democracy, lead by pleasant, likeable personalities;
- the Conservative & Unionists have an even bigger task, uncoupling from the mendacious gang in London, dropping the loony flag-waving act, and rolling their sleeves up and coming up with some thought-through, popular policies on eg. housing, transport and infrastructure.
Both tasks look daunting, and I just cannot see the necessary strong, principled future leader in either party. This is fantastic news for the SLDs in the medium term. Once they ditch the hopeless Swinson and Rennie, they have a golden opportunity to give Unionism the decent, respectable leadership it so desperately needs.
Given your serious concerns about the risks of a Corbyn administration, you should probably looking to vote in such a way to create a minority/coalition government that mitigates those risks.
That's why I've said the best option is a thumping Tory majority with the Cabinet losing their seats. Problem is, while theoretically possible the chances of it happening are the same as the chances of Colin Graves having a lucid moment.
I find it bizarre that so many NI Catholics are content to vote for those that don't take their seats. Surely Brexit and the NI backstop arrangements have shown the price to be paid for that. These people need a voice but with their MPs not sitting and the NI Assembly in the deep freeze they are denied one.
Perhaps we need to through a few years of Johnson/Nero with a majority before people come to their senses.
Johnson would be a better PM than May or Brown.
Unionism seems to be driving certain Scottish social democrats and conservatives quite literally bonkers. Only the process of Scotland becoming a normal country is likely to regain the loonies their sanity.
If the Union survives another decade - a big if - the SLDs will take over the leadership of Unionism for the remainder of the period.
If the Union is dissolved, I expect a powerful bounce for both Labour and Tories. The SNP are not going to have much fun after the initial post-independence GE. And I for one certainly won’t be hanging about to help them.
We have no idea what a Labour administration would look like. As with any election, it’s the risk of change vs. the problems we have. Since we know for sure that this government Is utterly chaotic, engages in Machiavellian bullshit and will act unlawfully to force its will, it has to go.
The only question is what we replace it with and how you mitigate the risks.
I predict a low turnout though, not so much weather, but Bored of Brexit which may make things unpredictable.
Good article but a small a correction needed here. Sinn Fein MPs do NOT get the MP's salary or pension. Only MPs taking their seats are entitled to that. They do get office expenses for constituency staff (for local casework) etc. They also get some expenses to travel to London and some claim accommodation allowance. So they aren't averse to taking a cheque from the Westminster oppressors, but aren't actually getting the salary.
The problem is that when you look at that anti-Tory vote it is very heavily remainer and Corbyn has spent the last 2 years irritating that group beyond measure with his equivocation and incoherence. Some are also genuinely disgusted at his antisemitism.
I think this time the anti-Tory vote is going to be much more split with consequential gains for the Tories. I can just about see Labour getting to 35% but I am struggling to see how they get beyond that. A 2-3% swing should be enough for a modest majority. It could of course get much worse than that for Labour.
As far as what would happen in the event of the Tories falling just short again, I agree that another attempt to make a deal with the DUP seems most improbable. The Tories have managed to unite around Boris Johnson's WA and any attempt to tweak it *again* would simply open all the old wounds. They'd have to accept the inevitable, I think, and hand the keys to No 10 to the wobbly Remain alliance.
(There is also some dispute as to whether he was the first EM PM, btw.)
What I want is a decent house in good repair - but that's not currently on offer.
He is PM. And, spoiler alert, he's rubbish.
Across most of Britain it is pretty clear which party is the challenger to the Tories, so a split opposition can be quite effective.
At the moment it looks like Con 350 seats to me, with gains in Wales, NE, NW, W Mids, E Mids, counterbalanced by losses in SE, SW, EE and London.
It will be a different Tory parliamentary party, culturally dominated by wealthy southerners, but largely consisting of rookie Northerners. Imagine a party of Esther McVeys.
The then national situation still stands with most local councils - I am the candidate at local elections and it is me they vote for - or not - not the Leader of Council. Of course those who want elected mayors had other ideas and maybe like you I don't think they were better ones.
Corbyn himself won't stand aside and his supporters won't entertain the suggestion. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority then he'll be Prime Minister by Christmas.
You may not *like* that - I certainly don't - but it remains a fact.
Screw it, I'm convinced.
If Boris Johnson messes up (or should then be when he messes up?) he’ll be quickly replaced with someone intelligent and sensible. The same can’t be said of Corbyn.
Attlee and Churchill both remained after election defeats, as did Home (for a time) and Wilson. Really, the tradition, such as it is, started with Heath but it wasn't even then always followed - Kinnock 1987 springs to mind. Howard could probably have stayed on in 2005 had he wanted to.
Specifically, many of the risks people talk about associated with Corbyn minority are mitigated by parliamentary arithmetic, both inside and outside the PLP. We know for a fact that isn’t the case on the Tory benches post Boris’s purge.
https://stv.tv/amp/1442242-rob-johns-polls-show-everything-to-play-for-in-scotland/?__twitter_impression=true
We thought wrong.