There we have it. The remain vote heading for the LibDems. Our clear position vs Labour's confused position should keep that moving even further in our direction.
And no of course I'm not predicting a Brexit or LibDem majority. But the Garage challenge today keeps Brexit front and centre in this election.
Some very poorly informed people have been gaslit most recently by the Tories about the need to get Brexit done and just leave. My pub conversations with voters are always this - they don't want lengthy negotiations and payments to the EU they want out. Now.
Farage shines a light on things the Tories have tried to game for themselves and it will spectacularly backfire. The Battle for Brexit is still to be won - for Proper Brexit. A Brexit Party vote isn't a vote for remain when you are a Labour leaver or a Tory hard brexiteer. It's what you already did in the Euros and what you have been conditioned to do.
The notion that this will be a two party rerun of 2017 really is wishful thinking
You might be expected to be expert in wishful thinking but obviously you're not
Don’t get me wrong, our system works well for us and we should try and defend it; but the US does have a legitimate grievance in that precisely because it’s healthcare system is so poorly designed it pays more than it’s fair share of development costs. The rest of the world gets a free ride off the US inability to manage healthcare well.
That's true, we are getting a good deal relative to the US. But the answer is for them to start being sensible with their pricing not for us to changes ours.
What should the price be for a new drug? The UK thinks it should be related to the benefits generated.
Pharma companies think it should be 'what the market will bear' and with the US system, there is almost no upper limit.
There is no proper market in the US system. The NHS uses its buying power to drive down prices as any sensibe organisation in a marketplace should - in the US Medicare etc are legally forbidden from doing the same. That is not a free market restriction.
The size of the NHS market is helpful to getting a better price but not the primary reason. The main reason is the cost-effectiveness methods used by NICE combined with the ability for price discrimination globally which requires secrecy.
We have a process where we set a cap currently and we can walk away without the drug if the price is too high that it blows the cost-effectiveness. We do, often. But a deal is often agreed because the price can be reduced in secrecy and Pharma is happier to come down to open up the market rather than have nothing at all.
Remove the secrecy, then the price is now a global price and there is no way pharma will budge for us when we represent less than 5% of global sales. The NHS loses its credible walking away strategy. We pay more or we don't get it.
I agree it would be ludicrous for any government to rip up this system. It would be the first red line in any negotiation for me.
That’s overly simplistic - the recommended outcome is public (and often leaks to the DM anyway). In Europe prices are often set based on the U.K. as a “reference price”
That’s why the US is so keen to shift us because we drag the global market down...
I'd say this is fairly neutral for the Conservatives. Nigel Farage's endorsement was always going to be something of a Greek gift, likely to scare away as many as it provided. And it allows the Conservatives to appear to triangulate a bit, papering over their extremism. The downside is that the detail of the withdrawal agreement is going to be looked at more, which is unlikely to be promising ground for the Conservatives. So probably a wash, I'd say.
If I were a Conservative strategist I'd think "meh".
Agree. As you say, it allows Tories to present as the middle position; between Brexit extreme leave, LD extreme remain and Labour extremely confused and just extreme. Current odds on Tory majority too long. Now gone back to below 50%. This isn't 2017. To continue the Greek theme, Aristotle would approve of being 'a mean between two extremes'.
Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....
What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?
It wouldn't.
I suspect if the Tories were 10 short of a majority, it would get over the line. If theh were 20 short, it would drag on for years.
The only person on the opposition benches who will help "Brexit get over the line" is Caroline Flint. With a fresh 5 year term in front of them every single other Labour MP will follow the Labour whip 100%.
The Tories need 321 MPs to get Brexit through.
650 - 7 Sinn Fein = 643/2 = 321.5 winning post, Flint being included as a Tory for this purpose means the Tories need 321.
Such a vote would be 318-317 as the Tories have 2 speakers and 2 tellers.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
Yes.
How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
“Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
What happened to the traditionalists’ ‘keep calm & carry on’ ? And the non traditionalists won’t be bothered anyway.
Could we not just put off the whole ‘official mourning’ thing until after the election ?
There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.
Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.
Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....
What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?
It wouldn't.
I suspect if the Tories were 10 short of a majority, it would get over the line. If theh were 20 short, it would drag on for years.
The only person on the opposition benches who will help "Brexit get over the line" is Caroline Flint. With a fresh 5 year term in front of them every single other Labour MP will follow the Labour whip 100%.
The Tories need 321 MPs to get Brexit through.
650 - 7 Sinn Fein = 643/2 = 321.5 winning post, Flint being included as a Tory for this purpose means the Tories need 321.
Such a vote would be 318-317 as the Tories have 2 speakers and 2 tellers.
I thought there were four speakers/tellers in total?
I think people may be under estimating how great the messaging of A ) willing to work with the Tories B ) only if they drop the terrible deal
It's gentle to the ear of the potential Con/BXP switcher. It makes the Con/BXP switcher feel enlightened, encouraged in. Not haranguaged.
It also worked on Lab/BXP switchers as well by rejecting Tory Brexit.
The problem is Tory voters support the deal, and Farage doesn't have any good arguments for why it is bad.
You are trying to look at substance and reality.
I'm telling you that the WAB doesn't get Brexit done. I mean look at this, there is another deadline after we have passed the WAB, I don't think we are really out of Europe. We haven't Brexited at all!
Is the revoke option still available post WAB?
No, once we’ve left, we’ve left - even if we’re still arguing about the future relationship. Going back in would mean rejoining.
This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.
"Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."
But if Boris gets Brexit 'done' on 31st Jan there will still be at least 2 more years of Brexit. The only way to get Brexit finished straightaway is to Revoke (Swinson).
You mean because of the need to negotiate an FTA? The EU has been negotiating trade deals on our behalf for decades, constantly, and on multiple fronts. How much of that were you aware of?
Don’t get me wrong, our system works well for us and we should try and defend it; but the US does have a legitimate grievance in that precisely because it’s healthcare system is so poorly designed it pays more than it’s fair share of development costs. The rest of the world gets a free ride off the US inability to manage healthcare well.
That's true, we are getting a good deal relative to the US. But the answer is for them to start being sensible with their pricing not for us to changes ours.
What should the price be for a new drug? The UK thinks it should be related to the benefits generated.
Pharma companies think it should be 'what the market will bear' and with the US system, there is almost no upper limit.
There is no proper market in the US system. The NHS uses its buying power to drive down prices as any sensibe organisation in a marketplace should - in the US Medicare etc are legally forbidden from doing the same. That is not a free market restriction.
The size of the NHS market is helpful to getting a better price but not the primary reason. The main reason is the cost-effectiveness methods used by NICE combined with the ability for price discrimination globally which requires secrecy.
We have a process where we set a cap currently and we can walk away without the drug if the price is too high that it blows the cost-effectiveness. We do, often. But a deal is often agreed because the price can be reduced in secrecy and Pharma is happier to come down to open up the market rather than have nothing at all.
Remove the secrecy, then the price is now a global price and there is no way pharma will budge for us when we represent less than 5% of global sales. The NHS loses its credible walking away strategy. We pay more or we don't get it.
I agree it would be ludicrous for any government to rip up this system. It would be the first red line in any negotiation for me.
That’s overly simplistic - the recommended outcome is public (and often leaks to the DM anyway). In Europe prices are often set based on the U.K. as a “reference price”
That’s why the US is so keen to shift us because we drag the global market down...
The thought occurs to me that the Tory party strategists really want these next 40 days to go as quickly and unobtrusively as possible. They are right now where they want to finish. Pushing 40%. More than 10% ahead of Labour. With TBP under 10%.
The flaw is that I anticipate that the election in going to take roughly 40 days from now. And pretty much anything can happen in that time.
There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.
Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.
Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
We have had in just 2 days Corbyn shouting about his perception of the sell out of NHS, Trump making an intervention, and Farage wanting a no deal walk out brexit
It will be interesting to see if this moves the polls this weekend and to what extent
I am not blowing hot and cold after various twists and turns. This is a GE and many factors will play into the minds of voters and how they manifest themselves will become more apparent as we get much nearer election day
Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....
What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?
It wouldn't.
I suspect if the Tories were 10 short of a majority, it would get over the line. If theh were 20 short, it would drag on for years.
The only person on the opposition benches who will help "Brexit get over the line" is Caroline Flint. With a fresh 5 year term in front of them every single other Labour MP will follow the Labour whip 100%.
The Tories need 321 MPs to get Brexit through.
650 - 7 Sinn Fein = 643/2 = 321.5 winning post, Flint being included as a Tory for this purpose means the Tories need 321.
Such a vote would be 318-317 as the Tories have 2 speakers and 2 tellers.
I think there are a handful of Labour MPs who are too committed to the deal at this point. They would have enough thrown their way.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
I’m expecting Betfair to pay out once Parliament actually gets dissolved for the election, which should happen next week. Until the dissolution, the election is not 100% confirmed and could theoretically not happen.
Betfair can't pay out until polling day because they will be taking money out of layers' accounts (and backers of other dates).
In practice, you can green up early and leave the odd penny on the table.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
Yes.
How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
“Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
The "whole" nation won't be in a sad mood.
Most Tory voting oldies would be, them telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off and staying at home on the 12th to watch endless hagiographies might have a significant effect.
Cheap generics still have to be licensed. So you as a thrusting entrepreneur see the markup on madeupname, and build a factory and get FDA approval. While you are doing this, the existing maker drops the price to remove your profit. You go bust because you now cannot pay for your shiny new factory, and the existing maker can jack the price back up. And because you know that will happen, you do not bother in the first place.
That is a bit of a caricature of what the chap who went to jail was doing. @Charles will know more about how it really works.
This is the problem. FIrstly you shouldn't need a shiny new factory, cheaper generics that exist globally and are using the same chemical formulation (since it's not patented) as brands should be able to get FDA approval quickly and cheaply.
Why are NICE and the EUs drugs agency capable of clearing cheap generics but the FDA aren't?
A proper free trade deal would work against "Big Pharma" abusing the system this way. IIRC for aircraft parts there is an expedited system so that is a part is recognised in Europe it can easily gain recognition in the USA too and vice versa. If the FDA block was removed by a liberated trade deal so that British pharmaceuticals could export more easily without FDA rigmarole then we could step in and break the corruptly abused US system.
We keep hearing this about labour, but their conference had even more extreme policies and the parliamentary candidates are increasingly corbynites. So no.
If anything what we have seen recently is jezza been sidelined for the more extremist McDonnell being defacto leader.
It a fair point with the additional consideration that Corbyn is very unlikely to get a majority (certainly not of Corbynites, and almost certainly not of Labour MPs) and would therefore be additionally constrained by MPs from other parties.
Bozo will remain in command of the Tories so long as they think he is a winner.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
I’m expecting Betfair to pay out once Parliament actually gets dissolved for the election, which should happen next week. Until the dissolution, the election is not 100% confirmed and could theoretically not happen.
Thx
Actually BF says 'Year of Next UK Election - Rules: This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or this market will be made void on the morning of 01/01/2023 if an election has not taken place.'
I expect Farage to be offered something juicy to back off a bit. As Nigel is a self-serving fuckwit - as are a great many politicians - this may well work.
We wont find out about it until next year, after which, despite the wailing, it will be too late.
I'd expect the Labour vote to go up and the LibDem to come down as voters begin to think how they will actually vote in their constituency.
This is the tactical vote effect which reduces the overall LD share as LDs are contenders in far fewer seats than Labour.
I think that's right. What we don't know is how far voters are intelligently assessing the local chances. The poll has 46% of voters in the Lab/LD/Green pool (cf. my earlier post in response to Foxy's graph). If half of them are essentially mobile between all three parties (as the graph suggests) AND that half correctly assess the constituency position, then this is a competitive election. If they don't, then it isn't.
Incidentally, in my constituency (Surrey SW), we've just had three large LD leaflets so far, and one Tory "survey" (ostensibly not seeking votes, the usual "we just want to ask what you think" thing).
I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.
MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
Yes.
How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
“Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
What happened to the traditionalists’ ‘keep calm & carry on’ ? And the non traditionalists won’t be bothered anyway.
Could we not just put off the whole ‘official mourning’ thing until after the election ?
A conspiracy theorist would ask if the whole thing could happen and be kept private for a few weeks, until the new year? Christmas message already recorded, that sort of thing.
In practice, that might be possible for the DoE, but no way for HMQ, too many activities depend on her.
At some point, probably in the next decade (remember her mum made it to 101), it’s going to happen. I’m not a royalist fanboy, but I imagine the reaction when it does happen will be like nothing else we’ve ever seen. It will overshadow absolutely everything else for weeks on end.
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
Neither
He will assume any persona he thinks will advance him personally.
If Corbyn came back again from a second massive gap, he would become untouchable. His supporters in the party would be absolutely vindicated and take over every local party and the national apparatus. Any MP that fought with him would be deselected. No poll could ever ve used against him again.
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
He isnt the later. If he was he would have died in a ditch rather than comprise.to get a deal. He is whatever is required to further his career, which is means more the former than the later.
If Corbyn came back again from a second massive gap, he would become untouchable. His supporters in the party would be absolutely vindicated and take over every local party and the national apparatus. Any MP that fought with him would be deselected. No poll could ever ve used against him again.
Ironically for Labour to be saved from himself it needs to be soundly beaten
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
Yes.
How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
“Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
What happened to the traditionalists’ ‘keep calm & carry on’ ? And the non traditionalists won’t be bothered anyway.
Could we not just put off the whole ‘official mourning’ thing until after the election ?
A conspiracy theorist would ask if the whole thing could happen and be kept private for a few weeks, until the new year? Christmas message already recorded, that sort of thing.
In practice, that might be possible for the DoE, but no way for HMQ, too many activities depend on her.
At some point, probably in the next decade (remember her mum made it to 101), it’s going to happen. I’m not a royalist fanboy, but I imagine the reaction when it does happen will be like nothing else we’ve ever seen. It will overshadow absolutely everything else for weeks on end.
Perhaps - but in any event I expect HMQ’s sense of duty will prevail, and she’ll hold out for a few more years yet.
Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....
What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?
It wouldn't.
I suspect if the Tories were 10 short of a majority, it would get over the line. If theh were 20 short, it would drag on for years.
The only person on the opposition benches who will help "Brexit get over the line" is Caroline Flint. With a fresh 5 year term in front of them every single other Labour MP will follow the Labour whip 100%.
The Tories need 321 MPs to get Brexit through.
650 - 7 Sinn Fein = 643/2 = 321.5 winning post, Flint being included as a Tory for this purpose means the Tories need 321.
Such a vote would be 318-317 as the Tories have 2 speakers and 2 tellers.
I thought there were four speakers/tellers in total?
4 speakers: the speaker and 3 deputies. 4 tellers: 2 aye and 2 nay
But the 2 tellers and 1 or 2 deputy speakers must be elected as Tories. So even if they don't vote they must be elected first.
If Corbyn came back again from a second massive gap, he would become untouchable. His supporters in the party would be absolutely vindicated and take over every local party and the national apparatus. Any MP that fought with him would be deselected. No poll could ever ve used against him again.
Ironically for Labour to be saved from himself it needs to be soundly beaten
This is a once in a generation election for this reason. If the head banger hard leftist bollocks to billionaires version of the labour party does well again, there is no return for your southam observer types for many many years (if ever).
The thought occurs to me that the Tory party strategists really want these next 40 days to go as quickly and unobtrusively as possible. They are right now where they want to finish. Pushing 40%. More than 10% ahead of Labour. With TBP under 10%.
The flaw is that I anticipate that the election in going to take roughly 40 days from now. And pretty much anything can happen in that time.
Not least opposition parties getting plenty of airtime to take chunks out of everything he says and put forward their own plans. Throughout the leadership campaign and as prime minister at the centre of the Brexit negotiations, Boris has been all over the telly waaay more than his opponents. That'll change now.
I'd be amazed if the Con-Lab gap isn't well below ten points before polling day.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
I’m expecting Betfair to pay out once Parliament actually gets dissolved for the election, which should happen next week. Until the dissolution, the election is not 100% confirmed and could theoretically not happen.
Betfair can't pay out until polling day because they will be taking money out of layers' accounts (and backers of other dates).
In practice, you can green up early and leave the odd penny on the table.
ISTR they settled at the dissolution last time. I guess we’ll all find out next week!
(I’m sure they’d rather give me the winnings on the election date now, so I can give it back to them in election outcome bets, but those holding on for the Queen’s passing leading to a postponement into January would undoubtedly disagree!).
Edit: No, you’re right. Market says it settles on the morning of Election Day. Damn.
The thought occurs to me that the Tory party strategists really want these next 40 days to go as quickly and unobtrusively as possible. They are right now where they want to finish. Pushing 40%. More than 10% ahead of Labour. With TBP under 10%.
The flaw is that I anticipate that the election in going to take roughly 40 days from now. And pretty much anything can happen in that time.
Not least opposition parties getting plenty of airtime to take chunks out of everything he says and put forward their own plans. Throughout the leadership campaign and as prime minister at the centre of the Brexit negotiations, Boris has been all over the telly waaay more than his opponents. That'll change now.
I'd be amazed if the Con-Lab gap isn't well below ten points before polling day.
"Not least opposition parties getting plenty of airtime to take chunks out of everything he says and put forward their own plans."
There will be no downside to the opposition parties as they do this.
Or do they pay more for TV adverts, donations to Congressmen, and overall corruption within their totally failed healthcare system? Don't forget the drug companies here don't pay a penny to MPs, don't pay a penny to take doctors on holidays, don't pay a penny on TV advertising so all we are paying for is the drugs themselves.
It costs about $1.4bn to develop a new drug (ignore the higher capitalised number that the industry cites). This takes into account the cost of failures.
You need to generate an economic return on that spending - based on a 15% ROIC target that means you need an annual income of about $200m.
The average drug generates - at peak - a product contribution margin of about 60%, out of which you need to fund sales & marketing (15%) and G&A (7%) leaving about a 38% pre-tax margin and a 30% post tax margin.
Hence you need about $700m in revenues for a drug to generate an economic return & cover the cost of failed research.
The 200th largest drug globally last year had sales of c $750m. (Obviously a lot of slack is made up by larger ones - Humira has revenues of $20bn or so).
It’s worth bearing in mind that virtually no one pays the list price in the US (discounts of 60-70% are common) and some of the most egregious abuses have been stopped. But there is scope to cut further and they should - orphan pricing is out of control in my view.
Democrats appear to be waking up to the fact that Warren’s (and Sander’s) signature policy is a likely millstone:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/01/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-063701 At Dos Amigos that’s what Kirk Goodman, 30, who was visiting from Brooklyn, asked Warren about. He told her he’d recently read that her Medicare for All plan cost four times as much as all her other proposals combined. “I’ll tell you what, hold on and wait for two or three more days,” Warren said. “Sometime soon, ok, and let’s talk about that.”
It’s not just voters in New Hampshire and Iowa who are concerned about Warren’s position on health care. Across the Democratic Party, there are fears about carrying the freight of Medicare for All into a general election against Trump. Sen. Sherrod Brown recently said it was a “terrible mistake” and could lead the Democratic nominee to lose his home state of Ohio next year....
Given the overwhelming popularity (3/4 of the whole electorate) of the public option (which would in any event make the prospect of universal state healthcare more possible in the long run), Democrats would be crazy not to adopt it as their platform.
We keep hearing this about labour, but their conference had even more extreme policies and the parliamentary candidates are increasingly corbynites. So no.
If anything what we have seen recently is jezza been sidelined for the more extremist McDonnell being defacto leader.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
Yes.
How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
“Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
What happened to the traditionalists’ ‘keep calm & carry on’ ? And the non traditionalists won’t be bothered anyway.
Could we not just put off the whole ‘official mourning’ thing until after the election ?
A conspiracy theorist would ask if the whole thing could happen and be kept private for a few weeks, until the new year? Christmas message already recorded, that sort of thing.
In practice, that might be possible for the DoE, but no way for HMQ, too many activities depend on her.
At some point, probably in the next decade (remember her mum made it to 101), it’s going to happen. I’m not a royalist fanboy, but I imagine the reaction when it does happen will be like nothing else we’ve ever seen. It will overshadow absolutely everything else for weeks on end.
The mourning will be huge and genuine, but I am guessing it will be a sideshow compared to the "why do we have monarchs and who is this Charles person anyway" shitstorm which will be immediately unleashed.
The thought occurs to me that the Tory party strategists really want these next 40 days to go as quickly and unobtrusively as possible. They are right now where they want to finish. Pushing 40%. More than 10% ahead of Labour. With TBP under 10%.
The flaw is that I anticipate that the election in going to take roughly 40 days from now. And pretty much anything can happen in that time.
Not least opposition parties getting plenty of airtime to take chunks out of everything he says and put forward their own plans. Throughout the leadership campaign and as prime minister at the centre of the Brexit negotiations, Boris has been all over the telly waaay more than his opponents. That'll change now.
I'd be amazed if the Con-Lab gap isn't well below ten points before polling day.
I can't see any of the Tory vote going Labour, the Tories are currently polling at around 2015 to 2017 levels, in 2017 they were polling over 45% to begin with which was not realistic anyway and the dementia tax gaffe ensured that.
The only movement I can see is Labour to LD and Green or LD and Green to Labour or Brexit Party to Tories or Tories to Brexit Party
When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.
Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.
Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.
Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
If Corbyn came back again from a second massive gap, he would become untouchable. His supporters in the party would be absolutely vindicated and take over every local party and the national apparatus. Any MP that fought with him would be deselected. No poll could ever ve used against him again.
Ironically for Labour to be saved from himself it needs to be soundly beaten
This is a once in a generation election for this reason. If the head banger hard leftist bollocks to billionaires version of the labour party does well again, there is no return for your southam observer types for many many years (if ever).
I think the thing which beats Corbyn will be age, at some point. Clearly if he's in power he'll have a few years. But if not - especially if the next parliament looks more stable - I can't see him hanging around for long, on the basis he won't be fighting an election in 2024*.
I'd have been even more certain if more of the reselection votes had gone against opponents, so I guess he may want to do more to cement the next generation. Or he may feel he's gone as far as he can.
(By the way.. if the FTPA survives, surely there'll be an amendment to move the next election to the summer - I assume 2024? Can't see us sticking with a series of December polls!)
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
Neither
He will assume any persona he thinks will advance him personally.
Given the likely profile of Conservative MPs after the election, could BJ reverse ferret back to liberal conservatism even if he wanted to? Besides, as Ronald Reagan put it, "You gotta dance with the one that brung ya".
What is interesting and totally unpredictable is just how wide a marginal the pollsters are getting various vote shares e.g. Lib dems somewhere between 14 and 24%.
If Corbyn came back again from a second massive gap, he would become untouchable. His supporters in the party would be absolutely vindicated and take over every local party and the national apparatus. Any MP that fought with him would be deselected. No poll could ever ve used against him again.
Ironically for Labour to be saved from himself it needs to be soundly beaten
This is a once in a generation election for this reason. If the head banger hard leftist bollocks to billionaires version of the labour party does well again, there is no return for your southam observer types for many many years (if ever).
I think the thing which beats Corbyn will be age, at some point. Clearly if he's in power he'll have a few years. But if not - especially if the next parliament looks more stable - I can't see him hanging around for long, on the basis he won't be fighting an election in 2024*.
I'd have been even more certain if more of the reselection votes had gone against opponents, so I guess he may want to do more to cement the next generation. Or he may feel he's gone as far as he can.
(By the way.. if the FTPA survives, surely there'll be an amendment to move the next election to the summer - I assume 2024? Can't see us sticking with a series of December polls!)
Corbyn in a way is the least of the problem. He is a simpleton who believes socialism is a better system and who hasnt changed his opinion on anything in 40 years, but as labour insiders have said there are now truly evil people in position of power within labour..the marxists and communist entrists, the antisemites, etc.
A Brexit candidate in a seat like Banff & Buchan will probably sink the Tories. Otherwise I think they might just be able to hold it and similar seats.
Yeah, I think the biggest effect from a betting purpose would be making every NE scotland seat an odds on Tory loss.
The Brexit Party were included in the poll from Panelbase which saw the Tories hold both their Aberdeenshire seats
If the WA is implemented we will of course have left the EU. Legally. The Tories problem is that thanks to their efforts most normals don't know what "leave" or "European Union" mean.
"Get Brexit Done" is translated to people as Brexit be over. Free movement to be over. Monies paid to stop. Etc. And none of that is true. It only just gets started - and the "we'll get an amazing trade deal" has been demolished up front by Trump.
Farage will point all of this out. Show how even after we eventually stop being tied to the EU it'll be awful. And all the brexiteers that Johnson's leadership campaign sang siren songs to will say "bollocks to this"
Farage doesn't care about the Tory party. He isn't a Tory. Farage wants the Brexit of his dreams. He's been fighting for years. He isn't going to stop fighting now and acquiesce.
When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.
Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
The problem Remainers have is they made themselves believe that Leavers were idiot plebs that would swallow anything that could make them angry from the right and were incapable of thinking for themselves. They based their tactics on it and it has backfired spectacularly.
There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.
Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.
Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
No it won’t because that won’t be enough time, so we’ll need to extend it before July 2020. The main difference between Johnson’s deal and May’s is that Johnson’s gives the EU more leverage to use against us at the end of transition.
If the WA is implemented we will of course have left the EU. Legally. The Tories problem is that thanks to their efforts most normals don't know what "leave" or "European Union" mean.
"Get Brexit Done" is translated to people as Brexit be over. Free movement to be over. Monies paid to stop. Etc. And none of that is true. It only just gets started - and the "we'll get an amazing trade deal" has been demolished up front by Trump.
Farage will point all of this out. Show how even after we eventually stop being tied to the EU it'll be awful. And all the brexiteers that Johnson's leadership campaign sang siren songs to will say "bollocks to this"
Farage doesn't care about the Tory party. He isn't a Tory. Farage wants the Brexit of his dreams. He's been fighting for years. He isn't going to stop fighting now and acquiesce.
This is the Brexit of Farage's dreams. He is doing this for his own political relevance and advancement, not ideological reasons.
When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.
Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
The problem Remainers have is they made themselves believe that Leavers were idiot plebs that would swallow anything that could make them angry from the right and were incapable of thinking for themselves. They based their tactics on it and it has backfired spectacularly.
Bingo! I wrote here that this wouldn't work as "we leavers aren't idiots" and basically got a reply of "leavers are idiots".
Never a good idea to fall for your own stereotypes. It should have been obvious that Remainers blocking Brexit and frustrating Boris would drive Leavers into supporting Boris. Oops!
A Brexit candidate in a seat like Banff & Buchan will probably sink the Tories. Otherwise I think they might just be able to hold it and similar seats.
Yeah, I think the biggest effect from a betting purpose would be making every NE scotland seat an odds on Tory loss.
The Brexit Party were included in the poll from Panelbase which saw the Tories hold both their Aberdeenshire seats
I think applying universal swing in NE Scotland is a quick way to the poorhouse.
The thought occurs to me that the Tory party strategists really want these next 40 days to go as quickly and unobtrusively as possible. They are right now where they want to finish. Pushing 40%. More than 10% ahead of Labour. With TBP under 10%.
The flaw is that I anticipate that the election in going to take roughly 40 days from now. And pretty much anything can happen in that time.
Not least opposition parties getting plenty of airtime to take chunks out of everything he says and put forward their own plans. Throughout the leadership campaign and as prime minister at the centre of the Brexit negotiations, Boris has been all over the telly waaay more than his opponents. That'll change now.
I'd be amazed if the Con-Lab gap isn't well below ten points before polling day.
I won't be at all surprised if it is at that level. Labour seem to be in a very bad place. But its possible, there's no denying that.
If Corbyn came back again from a second massive gap, he would become untouchable. His supporters in the party would be absolutely vindicated and take over every local party and the national apparatus. Any MP that fought with him would be deselected. No poll could ever ve used against him again.
Ironically for Labour to be saved from himself it needs to be soundly beaten
This is a once in a generation election for this reason. If the head banger hard leftist bollocks to billionaires version of the labour party does well again, there is no return for your southam observer types for many many years (if ever).
I think the thing which beats Corbyn will be age, at some point. Clearly if he's in power he'll have a few years. But if not - especially if the next parliament looks more stable - I can't see him hanging around for long, on the basis he won't be fighting an election in 2024*.
I'd have been even more certain if more of the reselection votes had gone against opponents, so I guess he may want to do more to cement the next generation. Or he may feel he's gone as far as he can.
(By the way.. if the FTPA survives, surely there'll be an amendment to move the next election to the summer - I assume 2024? Can't see us sticking with a series of December polls!)
Corbyn in a way is the least of the problem. He is a simpleton who believes socialism is a better system and who hasnt changed his opinion on anything in 40 years, but as labour insiders have said there are now truly evil people in position of power within labour..the marxists and communist entrists, the antisemites, etc.
Agreed. But I think the signs are that at a constituency level it's not as embedded as he might have hoped. If Margaret Hodge can survive a leftist coup, all is not lost for Lab centrists. In any case, I think an ambitious younger leftie would work harder and find it easier to be inclusive. Corbyn's too much of a purist, with zero f*cks given as to whether he or his platform are electable.
What is interesting and totally unpredictable is just how wide a marginal the pollsters are getting various vote shares e.g. Lib dems somewhere between 14 and 24%.
There’s definitely an opportunity to make money betting on this election - if only we knew how.
Sadly I’m flat out at work for the next few weeks, and won’t have much time to study the form, so to speak. Some constituency level polling would definitely be useful though.
I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.
Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.
Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
No it won’t because that won’t be enough time, so we’ll need to extend it before July 2020. The main difference between Johnson’s deal and May’s is that Johnson’s gives the EU more leverage to use against us at the end of transition.
At most it can be extended until 2022 and if Boris wins a majority he is PM until 2024 which means 2 years of a Canada style FTA or else No Deal minimum
Utter rubbish. Labour MPs only distrust Corbyn because they don't think he can win. If he gets a majority they'll be far more in thrall to him than the Tories would be to Johnson.
William Hague famously said that election campaigns rarely have any effect on the end result. Polls taken at the start of the campaign are invariably little different to those at the end.
That changed dramaticaly in 2017. My theory is that voters were distracted by a single issue but the campaign turned up all sorts of things that hadn't been thought about. Notably the character of the leaders.
My guess is that this one will be the same but more so. Brexit is everything at the moment. Every vox pop referes to nothing else. The character of the potential PM's have hardly been looked at though normally they are crucial.
If they got equal with Labour I imagine they could overtake them but I suppose they won't even get close. Are they even considered a major party nowadays?
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
The question then would be: who is the real Johnson? The liberal conservative of London days, or the rabid nationalist brexiteering lunatic of recent weeks.
Neither. Simply an empty vessel for achieving his personal ambitions. It is a game to him.
Btw The Lib Dems are mispriced in Hendon. They probably won't win it but they shouldn't be 50-1 with them being 7-4 in neighbouring Finchley.
You're correct that that's inconsistent, given how similar the seats are, but I'd argue that they're more mispriced in Finchley than Hendon. Luciana Berger is not enough to swing a seat with no track record of voting Lib Dem, even at locals.
When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.
Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
I'm sorry, but since your...visitation last night by the familiar of He Below All, I keep getting the soundtrack to "The Omen" in my head...
I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
If we had stuck to his strategy the Tories would still be third behind Labour and the Brexit Party rather than heading for a big majority as they are with Panelbase today
I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
I’m expecting Betfair to pay out once Parliament actually gets dissolved for the election, which should happen next week. Until the dissolution, the election is not 100% confirmed and could theoretically not happen.
Thx
Actually BF says 'Year of Next UK Election - Rules: This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or this market will be made void on the morning of 01/01/2023 if an election has not taken place.'
There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.
Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.
Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
No it won’t because that won’t be enough time, so we’ll need to extend it before July 2020. The main difference between Johnson’s deal and May’s is that Johnson’s gives the EU more leverage to use against us at the end of transition.
At most it can be extended until 2022 and if Boris wins a majority he is PM until 2024 which means 2 years of a Canada style FTA or else No Deal minimum
Yeah, yeah. And he’d go to prison rather than extend Article 50...
I'd expect the Labour vote to go up and the LibDem to come down as voters begin to think how they will actually vote in their constituency.
This is the tactical vote effect which reduces the overall LD share as LDs are contenders in far fewer seats than Labour.
I think that's right. What we don't know is how far voters are intelligently assessing the local chances. The poll has 46% of voters in the Lab/LD/Green pool (cf. my earlier post in response to Foxy's graph). If half of them are essentially mobile between all three parties (as the graph suggests) AND that half correctly assess the constituency position, then this is a competitive election. If they don't, then it isn't.
Incidentally, in my constituency (Surrey SW), we've just had three large LD leaflets so far, and one Tory "survey" (ostensibly not seeking votes, the usual "we just want to ask what you think" thing).
I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.
MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.
The LDs have more activists than seats, so there's a lot of work on long shots, building them up for the future. If it weren't for the incumbency of J Hunt this would be a Tory-LD marginal, and there has to be a good chance he'll throw the towel in before the 2024 election.
If we had stuck to his strategy the Tories would still be third behind Labour and the Brexit Party rather than heading for a big majority as they are with Panelbase today
Looking at how few Labour Leavers there are left in that graphic, it is hard to believe those Brexit Party supporters aren't former Labour Leave voters.
Comments
That’s why the US is so keen to shift us because we drag the global market down...
With a fresh 5 year term in front of them every single other Labour MP will follow the Labour whip 100%.
The Tories need 321 MPs to get Brexit through.
650 - 7 Sinn Fein = 643/2 = 321.5 winning post, Flint being included as a Tory for this purpose means the Tories need 321.
Such a vote would be 318-317 as the Tories have 2 speakers and 2 tellers.
Could we not just put off the whole ‘official mourning’ thing until after the election ?
Its facile.
In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
The flaw is that I anticipate that the election in going to take roughly 40 days from now. And pretty much anything can happen in that time.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1190244183799402496
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1190244795018559488
It will be interesting to see if this moves the polls this weekend and to what extent
I am not blowing hot and cold after various twists and turns. This is a GE and many factors will play into the minds of voters and how they manifest themselves will become more apparent as we get much nearer election day
In practice, you can green up early and leave the odd penny on the table.
Amazing.
This must happen
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1190082659126525952?s=19
Discuss.
My safe Tory seat is currently held by a Brexiteer.
Do I vote Lib Dem, or BXP?
Why are NICE and the EUs drugs agency capable of clearing cheap generics but the FDA aren't?
A proper free trade deal would work against "Big Pharma" abusing the system this way. IIRC for aircraft parts there is an expedited system so that is a part is recognised in Europe it can easily gain recognition in the USA too and vice versa. If the FDA block was removed by a liberated trade deal so that British pharmaceuticals could export more easily without FDA rigmarole then we could step in and break the corruptly abused US system.
If anything what we have seen recently is jezza been sidelined for the more extremist McDonnell being defacto leader.
Bozo will remain in command of the Tories so long as they think he is a winner.
Oh well, some Christmas spending money I guess.
We wont find out about it until next year, after which, despite the wailing, it will be too late.
MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.
In practice, that might be possible for the DoE, but no way for HMQ, too many activities depend on her.
At some point, probably in the next decade (remember her mum made it to 101), it’s going to happen. I’m not a royalist fanboy, but I imagine the reaction when it does happen will be like nothing else we’ve ever seen. It will overshadow absolutely everything else for weeks on end.
He will assume any persona he thinks will advance him personally.
A badly edited précis, rather.
My model has 54/18/16/10/1
Clear Tory win.
4 tellers: 2 aye and 2 nay
But the 2 tellers and 1 or 2 deputy speakers must be elected as Tories. So even if they don't vote they must be elected first.
In other words..come on punk make my day
I'd be amazed if the Con-Lab gap isn't well below ten points before polling day.
(I’m sure they’d rather give me the winnings on the election date now, so I can give it back to them in election outcome bets, but those holding on for the Queen’s passing leading to a postponement into January would undoubtedly disagree!).
Edit: No, you’re right. Market says it settles on the morning of Election Day. Damn.
There will be no downside to the opposition parties as they do this.
You need to generate an economic return on that spending - based on a 15% ROIC target that means you need an annual income of about $200m.
The average drug generates - at peak - a product contribution margin of about 60%, out of which you need to fund sales & marketing (15%) and G&A (7%) leaving about a 38% pre-tax margin and a 30% post tax margin.
Hence you need about $700m in revenues for a drug to generate an economic return & cover the cost of failed research.
The 200th largest drug globally last year had sales of c $750m. (Obviously a lot of slack is made up by larger ones - Humira has revenues of $20bn or so).
It’s worth bearing in mind that virtually no one pays the list price in the US (discounts of 60-70% are common) and some of the most egregious abuses have been stopped. But there is scope to cut further and they should - orphan pricing is out of control in my view.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/01/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-063701
At Dos Amigos that’s what Kirk Goodman, 30, who was visiting from Brooklyn, asked Warren about. He told her he’d recently read that her Medicare for All plan cost four times as much as all her other proposals combined. “I’ll tell you what, hold on and wait for two or three more days,” Warren said. “Sometime soon, ok, and let’s talk about that.”
It’s not just voters in New Hampshire and Iowa who are concerned about Warren’s position on health care. Across the Democratic Party, there are fears about carrying the freight of Medicare for All into a general election against Trump. Sen. Sherrod Brown recently said it was a “terrible mistake” and could lead the Democratic nominee to lose his home state of Ohio next year....
Given the overwhelming popularity (3/4 of the whole electorate) of the public option (which would in any event make the prospect of universal state healthcare more possible in the long run), Democrats would be crazy not to adopt it as their platform.
The only movement I can see is Labour to LD and Green or LD and Green to Labour or Brexit Party to Tories or Tories to Brexit Party
Conservative £36 Bishop Auckland @ 5-6
Conservative £30 Newcastle Under Lyme @ 7-20
Conservative £30 Beaconsfield @ 17-20
Conservative £20 Cities of London & Westminster @ 13-10
Labour £20.10 Streatham @ 6-4
Labour £20 Hartlepool @ 10-11
Lib Dems £10 Hendon @ 60-1
Lib Dems £30 St Albans @ 5-6
1-5 5/4
6-10 9/4
11-15 5/1
When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.
Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
I'd have been even more certain if more of the reselection votes had gone against opponents, so I guess he may want to do more to cement the next generation. Or he may feel he's gone as far as he can.
(By the way.. if the FTPA survives, surely there'll be an amendment to move the next election to the summer - I assume 2024? Can't see us sticking with a series of December polls!)
"Get Brexit Done" is translated to people as Brexit be over. Free movement to be over. Monies paid to stop. Etc. And none of that is true. It only just gets started - and the "we'll get an amazing trade deal" has been demolished up front by Trump.
Farage will point all of this out. Show how even after we eventually stop being tied to the EU it'll be awful. And all the brexiteers that Johnson's leadership campaign sang siren songs to will say "bollocks to this"
Farage doesn't care about the Tory party. He isn't a Tory. Farage wants the Brexit of his dreams. He's been fighting for years. He isn't going to stop fighting now and acquiesce.
Tories 383
Labour 189
LDs 21
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=40&LAB=29&LIB=14&Brexit=9&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Never a good idea to fall for your own stereotypes. It should have been obvious that Remainers blocking Brexit and frustrating Boris would drive Leavers into supporting Boris. Oops!
Looking at the Labour leave seats like Wigan, St Helens North, Leigh etc the Tory+UKIP vote went down whiel Labour's surged.
Sadly I’m flat out at work for the next few weeks, and won’t have much time to study the form, so to speak. Some constituency level polling would definitely be useful though.
That changed dramaticaly in 2017. My theory is that voters were distracted by a single issue but the campaign turned up all sorts of things that hadn't been thought about. Notably the character of the leaders.
My guess is that this one will be the same but more so. Brexit is everything at the moment. Every vox pop referes to nothing else. The character of the potential PM's have hardly been looked at though normally they are crucial.
If they got equal with Labour I imagine they could overtake them but I suppose they won't even get close. Are they even considered a major party nowadays?