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  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    you think
  • Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    They already did win an actual referendum.
    ... but obviously believe that was a one-off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    I’m expecting Betfair to pay out once Parliament actually gets dissolved for the election, which should happen next week. Until the dissolution, the election is not 100% confirmed and could theoretically not happen.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,695
    SandyRentool said: "Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead."

    Tories won`t have a double-digit lead now we know tht BXP are going to be major players.
  • I'd say this is fairly neutral for the Conservatives. Nigel Farage's endorsement was always going to be something of a Greek gift, likely to scare away as many as it provided. And it allows the Conservatives to appear to triangulate a bit, papering over their extremism. The downside is that the detail of the withdrawal agreement is going to be looked at more, which is unlikely to be promising ground for the Conservatives. So probably a wash, I'd say.

    If I were a Conservative strategist I'd think "meh".
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
    Well, yes, but that was equally true of Theresa May's deal. You are making the mistake of looking at the facts.
    I would have voted for May's deal in a hearbeat, but from an arch Brexiteer perspective, there was a case (a mistaken one in my view, but a logical case) we would have been stuck in the backstop and not be able to sign FTAs. Now even that argument has gone.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    At the end of the day if the Libs are in 20 and the BXP are on 10 then 4 times out of 5 the Tories will get a majority. If Farage won't have a pact then Boris with the help of the media will begin the squeeze. It will be difficult but its doable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
    You really think Farage wants to spend the campaign debating the relative merits of the WA? I don't. I doubt he's even read it. This is pure ego.
    No, one advantage Farage has over the likes of Johnson is that he has a better understanding of how the EU actually works. He will be able to take apart Johnson's claims about 'getting Brexit done'.

    This is why Farage was well ahead of the pack when it came to the first extension. He could see it coming a mile off, and was able to prepare his strategy in advance, while the other parties were left flat-footed.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    Scott_P said:
    I'd expect the Labour vote to go up and the LibDem to come down as voters begin to think how they will actually vote in their constituency.

    This is the tactical vote effect which reduces the overall LD share as LDs are contenders in far fewer seats than Labour.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    They already did win an actual referendum.
    ... but obviously believe that was a one-off.
    Or believe it should be until the result is implemented.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    As I expected Farage is going for it. Good. He can win Hartlepool for starters.

    Nice to see Farage portraying the choice as starkly as he has done - neatly fitting my own narrative I'm sowing in this election:

    It's a simple choice. If you want Brexit vote for the Brexit Party. If you want to stop Brexit vote for the Liberal Democrats. If you want confusion and chaos and delay vote Labour or Tory.

    Both Labour and Tories have a totally confused position on Brexit. Tories portraying years of protracted negotiations as "get it done". Labour promising a whole new deal in 3 months (it'll be Johnson's deal plus a Customs Union and restoration of May's UK-wide permanent backstop) then a referendum which they'll decide later. Essentially if you're a voter you have to hope your Labour or Tory MP breaks their whip to deliver remain/leave...

    Are you suggesting BXP or LibDems could win an OM?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
    You really think Farage wants to spend the campaign debating the relative merits of the WA? I don't. I doubt he's even read it. This is pure ego.
    BoZo is going to have to defend his crap deal on two fronts now. That should keep it interesting, and the BXP have a slick media operation, even if poor at ground level.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,965

    Completely Off Topic but in real life just been getting the kids ready for school when heard a loud commotion upstairs - went up to check what was going on and found a black crow flapping around in our bedroom banging into the wardrobe and windows and walls.

    I'm not superstitious but that was freaky - to make it more freaky and apparently more portentous the window was closed. I've checked every other window too, they're all closed. No chimney. I've got absolutely no idea how on earth a black crow has suddenly and without any open windows appeared in my bedroom . . .

    Managed to get it out by opening the window and it eventually found its way out but even without being superstitious that is strange and put me on edge, still got no idea where it came from . . .

    When you joined the party and signed that...special contract, did you think it would be just baby-eating and jumble sales? There is so, so much more... :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZmixJmXSyc

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,718
    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    You mean, other than the actual actual referendum that Leave won?

    As I recall, this was exactly the charge levelled against the remain parties carefully adding up vote shares for Remain parties after the Euro elections. They still couldn't win without cheating.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    Might be a cash opportunity here if the markets start to go silly and overestimate BXP, or even Labour, seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    I'd say this is fairly neutral for the Conservatives. Nigel Farage's endorsement was always going to be something of a Greek gift, likely to scare away as many as it provided. And it allows the Conservatives to appear to triangulate a bit, papering over their extremism. The downside is that the detail of the withdrawal agreement is going to be looked at more, which is unlikely to be promising ground for the Conservatives. So probably a wash, I'd say.

    If I were a Conservative strategist I'd think "meh".

    I agree. It also allows them to sell their deal as more moderate than it actually is now which will attract some of those not that interested in Brexit. If they didn't have someone on their outside that would be much more difficult.
  • TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    As I expected Farage is going for it. Good. He can win Hartlepool for starters.

    Nice to see Farage portraying the choice as starkly as he has done - neatly fitting my own narrative I'm sowing in this election:

    It's a simple choice. If you want Brexit vote for the Brexit Party. If you want to stop Brexit vote for the Liberal Democrats. If you want confusion and chaos and delay vote Labour or Tory.

    Both Labour and Tories have a totally confused position on Brexit. Tories portraying years of protracted negotiations as "get it done". Labour promising a whole new deal in 3 months (it'll be Johnson's deal plus a Customs Union and restoration of May's UK-wide permanent backstop) then a referendum which they'll decide later. Essentially if you're a voter you have to hope your Labour or Tory MP breaks their whip to deliver remain/leave...

    I'd be surprised if that narrative cut through. First of all, revoking would unleash years, if not decades, of follow-on recriminations. Most people would know that and fear it. Second, most people also realise voting Farage would lead to another hung parliament with the associated stalemate.

    The past 12-months, I believe, has been quite educational for the UK population on how politics in this country works and the need for a strong majority government. If people have forgotten that, they will now remember it. I doubt they would believe such an obviously bogus line of thought.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
    You really think Farage wants to spend the campaign debating the relative merits of the WA? I don't. I doubt he's even read it. This is pure ego.
    Of course it is ego. Farage is a lying charlatan.

    He's struggled badly when the Conservatives elected an equally proficient lying charlatan.

    But this is a good angle for him to lie and bluster about it all.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
    Argue that with Farage.
    Why? Who cares what he thinks?
    Gabs was arguing with me against the Farage position. But I don't have a dog in this fight between Johnson and Farage.

  • ...
    Tories and Labour are largely wasting their time if they go for direct switchers, and it's notable than only 25% of Tories are willing to even consider voting LibDem, which shows the ceiling of Swinson's approach of attacking Labour to get Tory switchers.
    ...

    I think you need to be careful on that - the figures date from May/June, and a lot has changed since then. In particular, a lot has changed to make Tory -> LibDem switching more likely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    Would have been better for the Tories if the Brexit Party had stood down in certain selected seats (especially standing aside in Scotland). But nowhere near as bad for them as if Farage had announced "we are putting up no candidates and urging everyone to vote Conservative".....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    As I expected Farage is going for it. Good. He can win Hartlepool for starters.

    Nice to see Farage portraying the choice as starkly as he has done - neatly fitting my own narrative I'm sowing in this election:

    It's a simple choice. If you want Brexit vote for the Brexit Party. If you want to stop Brexit vote for the Liberal Democrats. If you want confusion and chaos and delay vote Labour or Tory.

    Both Labour and Tories have a totally confused position on Brexit. Tories portraying years of protracted negotiations as "get it done". Labour promising a whole new deal in 3 months (it'll be Johnson's deal plus a Customs Union and restoration of May's UK-wide permanent backstop) then a referendum which they'll decide later. Essentially if you're a voter you have to hope your Labour or Tory MP breaks their whip to deliver remain/leave...

    Is this post satire? There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,718
    Foxy said:

    Endillion said:

    egg said:

    egg said:



    But you agree Farage is charismatic?
    And that Boris as a character will always be under attack and divisive?
    And that his deal is far from perfect?

    Farage is a charismatic outsider, good for protest votes, not so relevant to genera elections.

    Boris is a character who will be under attack and divisive sure, all Prime Ministers are and all transformative ones even moreso. Boris is also charismatic and finds ways to neuter attacks and be less divisive than otherwise you'd expect - a skill Blair and Cameron both had too.

    His deal is far from perfect but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. It is much better than nothing and much better than May's fatally flawed deal.
    However you can’t argue against Farage is right, Boris and Cummings wrong in that health care in UK is no where near the best in the world when comparing us like with like to similar countries. People go abroad for dentistry, like Madonna to US to have babies, Because it’s an outdated model of provision in 2020s. There’s always fund raising on local news to send a kid to Spain, or US or Czechoslovakia for the treatment they need. Going abroad for treatment is cheaper than staying home on NHS. Why shouldn’t it be changed and privatised?

    Before any Tory voter rush to defend second best for UK citizens, you will be defending something that isn’t likely to survive next five years without big shakeup .
    You're confusing a bunch of issues:

    - Having better treatment available for those who can pay does not necessarily mean that those who can't will also receive better treatment
    - Private treatment in other countries may be better than the NHS and cheaper than UK private care, and therefore attractive to some individuals
    - Some treatment is not available on the NHS because NICE has ruled it inefficient. Other countries offering it does not mean than NICE has made a mistake. People going abroad in search of therapies that they read about online, but which UK doctors won't prescribe for whatever reason, is not an indicator that our healthcare is worse than elsewhere

    The big issue with UK healthcare relative to Europe is, as I understand it, to do with how well our cancer survival rates compare with other European countries. Infant mortality rates also don't look good.
    By and large mortality rates reflect social inequality rather than a healthcare system. If your target is to reduce those, then spend on social reform, housing and other public health measures rather than pharma.
    Yes, but it's about relativities. The issue is why our stats compare poorly against countries who also have high levels of social inequality, and who spend relatively less on healthcare.
  • 500 "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists"
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    No way can Bozo accept this offer .

    And of course Farage can blame the Tories if they don’t get a majority. And if Bozo did try and do some deal then Tories who want a deal will jump ship .

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The next question is will his BBC out riders pull through for him. Will they plaster Nige all through their political coverage or are they solid for Boris?
  • TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    To be fair to Betfair, in theory the date could push in to January if a really extreme event happened. Though I’m not sure of how the Gvt could change the date without Parliament in place, given that this route puts a date in law. Civil Contingencies Act I guess.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?

    Yes, I agree, I don't think it will make much difference and might even help the Tories a bit. For the moment, Boris has most of the nuttier no-dealer types (who might vote either BXP or Tory) sewn up. I don't think that will last, but it will last long enough for this election.
    What percentage of electorate do you think are nuttier no-dealer types? Serious question and "nuttier" is a movable feast
    I think there are two types of people who say (or said before Boris got his deal agreed with the EU) that they'd be happy with no deal. The majority had reached this point out of frustration: they didn't prefer no deal, but they had convinced themselves that it wouldn't be very bad. Of course they were wrong on that, but you can see how they got there, given their frustration.

    There is however a minority, notably some of the spartan ERG-er types, who genuinely think that we should have no truck with EU regulation at all. These aren't very numerous but they are dedicated, ruthless and well-organised. They will be throwing rocks when Boris starts having to make compromises to get an FTA, and they'll probably drag some of the former sort with them when they lay in to the FTA on the argument that 'we didn't leave the EU only to sign right back into EU regulation again'.

    I can't look into Nigel Farage's mind, but based on things he's said in the past I don't think he is an extremist no-dealer. However, I do think he'll be prominent in the rock-throwing.
    I agree with your take on numbers, not many but vociferous. However I hope that shouting very loudly, like that prat outside Parliament, will be counter productive.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
    You really think Farage wants to spend the campaign debating the relative merits of the WA? I don't. I doubt he's even read it. This is pure ego.
    No, one advantage Farage has over the likes of Johnson is that he has a better understanding of how the EU actually works. He will be able to take apart Johnson's claims about 'getting Brexit done'.

    This is why Farage was well ahead of the pack when it came to the first extension. He could see it coming a mile off, and was able to prepare his strategy in advance, while the other parties were left flat-footed.
    You can be the greatest debater in the world but if you don't have any good arguments you won't win. Once the Boris deal passes parliament, Brexit will be done. Future negotiations over international trade deals are just that, and apply to staying in the EU too.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,869
    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    Are you Richard Burgon in disguise?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Johnson won't accept this offer and nor should he.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    glw said:

    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    Are you Richard Burgon in disguise?
    Ooh - harsh!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251

    500 "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists"
    ....signing up to lose their deposits?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I think people may be under estimating how great the messaging of
    A ) willing to work with the Tories
    B ) only if they drop the terrible deal

    It's gentle to the ear of the potential Con/BXP switcher. It makes the Con/BXP switcher feel enlightened, encouraged in. Not haranguaged.

    It also worked on Lab/BXP switchers as well by rejecting Tory Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    Foxy said:

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
    You really think Farage wants to spend the campaign debating the relative merits of the WA? I don't. I doubt he's even read it. This is pure ego.
    BoZo is going to have to defend his crap deal on two fronts now. That should keep it interesting, and the BXP have a slick media operation, even if poor at ground level.
    Boris's Deal occupies the Goldilocks zone - not too hot, not too cold.....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    They already did win an actual referendum.
    ... but obviously believe that was a one-off.
    you can only win one out of one.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson won't accept this offer and nor should he.

    Presumably the bigger danger is that some Tory candidates will

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I hate turning politics into twelve dimensional chess but this is a really smart angle. Giving the Conservatives a chance to change their minds on the WAB makes Farage and the BXP look reasonable and not extreme. Even though they are totally extreme and not at all reasonable.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,718
    This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.

    "Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Alistair said:

    I think people may be under estimating how great the messaging of
    A ) willing to work with the Tories
    B ) only if they drop the terrible deal

    It's gentle to the ear of the potential Con/BXP switcher. It makes the Con/BXP switcher feel enlightened, encouraged in. Not haranguaged.

    It also worked on Lab/BXP switchers as well by rejecting Tory Brexit.

    The problem is Tory voters support the deal, and Farage doesn't have any good arguments for why it is bad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson won't accept this offer and nor should he.

    Presumably the bigger danger is that some Tory candidates will

    Much like Boris moving seat this isn't going to happen. That's disaster level event for Con if that happens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    Endillion said:

    This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.

    "Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."

    +1000
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,758
    timmo said:

    This still comes down to the ongoing feud between Farage and Cummings..

    Good point. Fucking Cummings is probably quite high up NF's to-do list.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 359

    Boris's Deal occupies the Goldilocks zone - not too hot, not too cold.....

    Or Goldilocks in reverse: too hot for some, too cold for everyone else?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson won't accept this offer and nor should he.

    Presumably the bigger danger is that some Tory candidates will

    They won't be a Tory candidate for long if they make noises in that direction.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,038
    Brom said:



    Is this post satire? There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.

    There is, but it's quite subtle. If trade negotiations break down, the question is whether to revert to No Deal. Boris doesn't want to rule that out, as he sees it as a negotiating lever, but as we've seen it can come very close to reality. Voters who are in favour of leaving with a deal but not of leaving without one are taking a risk of ending up with no deal. Conversely, people who want no deal probably, but not certainly, won't get it.
  • TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    Has Her Majesty pledged to die in a ditch? I thought that was the other one.

    To be serious, HMQ was looking very frail at the State Opening of Parliament. Still, it was worth it for the Queen's Speech.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    edited November 2019

    I agree with your take on numbers, not many but vociferous. However I hope that shouting very loudly, like that prat outside Parliament, will be counter productive.

    The crunch is going to come next year. There is no way on this earth that we're going to get an FTA with the EU without accepting a whole bunch of EU regulation. Under the Boris Withdrawal Agreement, we no longer have the backstop as a fall-back option, so our negotiating position will be extremely weak and it'll be 'sign up to our regulation or trash your economy' again.

    In practice this will be a hollow argument, because we'll be following EU regulations de facto even if we crash out on WTO terms. The EU is a regulatory super-power, right on our borders, accounting for a huge chunk of our trade. There is absolutely no way we can ignore that. However, in political terms signing up to all that regulation is going to cause the mother of all rows in the Conservative Party (again!).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    “Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Endillion said:



    Yes, but it's about relativities. The issue is why our stats compare poorly against countries who also have high levels of social inequality, and who spend relatively less on healthcare.

    The relatively poor cancer rates versus our peers are why Cameron brought in his 'Cancer Drugs Fund' in 2010 which basically sidestepped the NICE process. Lo and behold, the fund massively overspent for negligible benefit and was brought back into the NICE fold after reform.

    Unless we are prepared to pay massively over the odds for new cancer medicines that often only give an extra couple of weeks at the end of life, then we might have to accept slightly poorer cancer outcomes unfortunately.

    The more cost-effective strategy is to try and catch cancer earlier before it has had chance to progress. The NHS are investing heavily into this.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gabs2 said:

    Alistair said:

    I think people may be under estimating how great the messaging of
    A ) willing to work with the Tories
    B ) only if they drop the terrible deal

    It's gentle to the ear of the potential Con/BXP switcher. It makes the Con/BXP switcher feel enlightened, encouraged in. Not haranguaged.

    It also worked on Lab/BXP switchers as well by rejecting Tory Brexit.

    The problem is Tory voters support the deal, and Farage doesn't have any good arguments for why it is bad.
    You are trying to look at substance and reality.

    I'm telling you that the WAB doesn't get Brexit done. I mean look at this, there is another deadline after we have passed the WAB, I don't think we are really out of Europe. We haven't Brexited at all!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,293
    edited November 2019

    I'd say this is fairly neutral for the Conservatives. Nigel Farage's endorsement was always going to be something of a Greek gift, likely to scare away as many as it provided. And it allows the Conservatives to appear to triangulate a bit, papering over their extremism. The downside is that the detail of the withdrawal agreement is going to be looked at more, which is unlikely to be promising ground for the Conservatives. So probably a wash, I'd say.

    If I were a Conservative strategist I'd think "meh".

    I agree it's not all one-way traffic, but there must be a significant downside in frustrated Brexiteers having an alternative. And if Farage stands in most seats and gets significant airtime, the "Boris is a lightweight sell-out whose deal is no better than May's" spiel will be suboptimal compared to non-stop, sunlit uplands, "great new deal".

    Of course BJ won't agree to Farage's terms to trash his own deal. But he must be hoping NF backs down. 30 seats with a <1pc margin being tossed up in the air by BXP candidates is a dangerous battle ground.
  • Endillion said:

    This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.

    "Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."

    Well quite.

    The idea that any one thing has only negative or only positive results is nonsense. It generates possibilities and opportunities, and how the Tories deal with it will be interesting.

  • TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    The bigger problem is the Duke of Edinburgh surely - whose health seems to be fairly precarious now.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,965

    Stocky said:

    Farage is trying to deny Tories of a majority and win a few BXP seats - in hope that this enables the formation a coalition in government.

    In essence, he hasn`t moderated his ambitions, and is running a real risk that this will put Corbyn in Downing Street and mark the end of the Brexit project.

    I have a theory, which is probably bollocks, that Farage, from the time he first left the Tory Party, is and always has been a pro-Labour agent-provocateur.
    The counter theory is that Doug Carswell was a Tory mole in Ukip (see eg the Arron Banks book). Not that Nigel Farage doesn't have a long and glorious history of falling out with anyone who blocks his limelight.
    What, Douglas Carswell? Co-author and friend of Daniel Hannan? The one that denied UKIP funding granted when he was its only MP? The one who had access to the [redacted] when the [redacted] went to [redacted]? That Douglas Carswell? I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked... :)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Endillion said:

    This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.

    "Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."

    good shout
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    Endillion said:

    This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.

    "Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."

    Except that’s a Big Lie. Ratifying the deal won’t get Brexit done. It will just be the start of it.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I just watched Farage on TV, I would never vote for him but he is more likeable than BJ IMO..

    I think Farage also has a better understanding of Leave voters who were not Tories as well and where the Tories are wasting their time.

    Farage and TBP are deploying a very good media strategy as well. They are drip dripping information, that keeps them in the picture.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019

    Endillion said:



    Yes, but it's about relativities. The issue is why our stats compare poorly against countries who also have high levels of social inequality, and who spend relatively less on healthcare.

    The relatively poor cancer rates versus our peers are why Cameron brought in his 'Cancer Drugs Fund' in 2010 which basically sidestepped the NICE process. Lo and behold, the fund massively overspent for negligible benefit and was brought back into the NICE fold after reform.

    Unless we are prepared to pay massively over the odds for new cancer medicines that often only give an extra couple of weeks at the end of life, then we might have to accept slightly poorer cancer outcomes unfortunately.

    The more cost-effective strategy is to try and catch cancer earlier before it has had chance to progress. The NHS are investing heavily into this.
    Also cancer survival rates are really easy to game (accidentally, what I'm saying is they are a poor measure without a lot of effort to 'fix' them) .

    If a doctor detects in you an untreatable cancer that will kill you in 5 years that means you have a survival time of 5 years.

    If I that same untreatable cancer wasn't detected until 4 and a half years later so you had 6 months to live your survival time is 6 months.

    Nothing has changed but the 'survival rate' looks vastly worse in scenario 2.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,735

    I'd say this is fairly neutral for the Conservatives. Nigel Farage's endorsement was always going to be something of a Greek gift, likely to scare away as many as it provided. And it allows the Conservatives to appear to triangulate a bit, papering over their extremism. The downside is that the detail of the withdrawal agreement is going to be looked at more, which is unlikely to be promising ground for the Conservatives. So probably a wash, I'd say.

    If I were a Conservative strategist I'd think "meh".

    Agree. As you say, it allows Tories to present as the middle position; between Brexit extreme leave, LD extreme remain and Labour extremely confused and just extreme. Current odds on Tory majority too long. Now gone back to below 50%. This isn't 2017. To continue the Greek theme, Aristotle would approve of being 'a mean between two extremes'.

  • nico67 said:

    No way can Bozo accept this offer .

    And of course Farage can blame the Tories if they don’t get a majority. And if Bozo did try and do some deal then Tories who want a deal will jump ship .

    Boris needs to reject Farage comprehensively and that the deal stands and we are out at the end of January
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    This thing from Farage has moved the market significantly. Tory majority was 1.9 yesterday. It's 2.4 now.

    Go Nige!
    :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    “Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
    That's what I was thinking. If the worst happened, I can't see how we vote before January.

    And let's face it, at her age, any serious health issue can be terminal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,758
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    “Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
    The "whole" nation won't be in a sad mood.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 359
    Brom said:

    There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.

    Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.

    Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.

    Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Vote Farage get.....Corb.......er.......Swinson. Maybe.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,038
    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'd expect the Labour vote to go up and the LibDem to come down as voters begin to think how they will actually vote in their constituency.

    This is the tactical vote effect which reduces the overall LD share as LDs are contenders in far fewer seats than Labour.
    I think that's right. What we don't know is how far voters are intelligently assessing the local chances. The poll has 46% of voters in the Lab/LD/Green pool (cf. my earlier post in response to Foxy's graph). If half of them are essentially mobile between all three parties (as the graph suggests) AND that half correctly assess the constituency position, then this is a competitive election. If they don't, then it isn't.

    Incidentally, in my constituency (Surrey SW), we've just had three large LD leaflets so far, and one Tory "survey" (ostensibly not seeking votes, the usual "we just want to ask what you think" thing).
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    The bigger problem is the Duke of Edinburgh surely - whose health seems to be fairly precarious now.
    I dont think his health is precarous. Instead of using a shotgun to kill various animals he now uses a machine gun! He cannot miss. :smiley:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kinabalu said:

    This thing from Farage has moved the market significantly. Tory majority was 1.9 yesterday. It's 2.4 now.

    Go Nige!
    :smile:

    These Tory majority odds seem far more appealing. Evens before the campaign has even started was too short IMO.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,965
    Dura_Ace said:

    timmo said:

    This still comes down to the ongoing feud between Farage and Cummings..

    Good point. Fucking Cummings is probably quite high up NF's to-do list.
    "Fucking Cummings up", not "Fucking Cummings". Unless you've been writing some really weird fan-fiction... :)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,014

    I agree with your take on numbers, not many but vociferous. However I hope that shouting very loudly, like that prat outside Parliament, will be counter productive.

    The crunch is going to come next year. There is no way on this earth that we're going to get an FTA with the EU without accepting a whole bunch of EU regulation. Under the Boris Withdrawal Agreement, we no longer have the backstop as a fall-back option, so our negotiating position will be extremely weak and it'll be 'sign up to our regulation or trash your economy' again.

    In practice this will be a hollow argument, because we'll be following EU regulations de facto even if we crash out on WTO terms. The EU is a regulatory super-power, right on our borders, accounting for a huge chunk of our trade. There is absolutely no way we can ignore that. However, in political terms signing up to all that regulation is going to cause the mother of all rows in the Conservative Party (again!).
    A very good post.

    It beggars belief that anyone thought it sensible to put this out to a plebiscite...


  • Is this post satire? There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.
    There is, but it's quite subtle. If trade negotiations break down, the question is whether to revert to No Deal. Boris doesn't want to rule that out, as he sees it as a negotiating lever, but as we've seen it can come very close to reality. Voters who are in favour of leaving with a deal but not of leaving without one are taking a risk of ending up with no deal. Conversely, people who want no deal probably, but not certainly, won't get it.



    Any small leverage No Deal might once have created has now gone following the decision to betray the DUP and give Dublin what it wanted. It was the right decision, but it makes the UK (GB) position even weaker.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,545
    edited November 2019
    The only way Farage has any impact is if he persuades enough people to look at the detail of the proposal Johnson brought back. That is something that hasn’t happened yet. Details are not popular in these days of TLDR though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Flanner said:

    HYUFD said:



    No, Boris will make Ashcroft US Ambassador most likely

    Even by Johnson's standard of derangedly bad judgement, making Farage or Ashcroft Ambassador would be doolally.

    The Ambassador would be expected to serve across the next US election, after which there's an outside chance Trump will have been impeached and an evens chance a "Socialist" (in British: social democrat) Democrat President will have won. In any case, the next 15 months in the US is going to be politically febrile.

    Whoever's in No 10, we'll need a professional, managerialist, diplomat running the Washington Embassy ESPECIALLY if by 2021 the US President is on the opposite ideological side from the UK PM.

    Corbyn/Swinson and Warren or Johnson and Trump can do all the chumming they like: Our Man (or Woman) in Washington has to be able to command the respect of all Their Men in Federal departments and agencies before, during and after the 2020 election.

    As every journalist (the one professional skill there's a case Johnson may posses) will tell you.

    It’s going to be career diplomat. Don’t worry
  • I really don't think that those Conservatives who were attracted to Farage in the Euros would go near him now. HYUFD's analysis was right. Boris has reunited the Conservative party on the whole. Some Tories will leak to the LibDems but not to Farage who has shown himself up as a charlatan.

    Farage will however harm the Labour party.

    I don't think the Brexit Party could have just stood in 20 to 40 seats because of the rules for debates etc so this was always going to happen. I know a lot of people who voted Brexit in May, not many who will be voting Brexit next month.

    A different point not mentioned so far, to what extent will any debates happen. In May and June TV stations need the debates to fill airtime. Will they really want to break into the pre-Christmas Celebrity Bakeoff on Ice Roadkill Jungle Challenge for a non-debate that no sane person will dream of watching ?
  • So clearly nige doesn't want brexit, he wants the big cash for doing the speaking circuit rallying against the elite blocking brexit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,917
    BXP No deal
    CON Deal (Singapore Brexit)
    LAB Referendum (EEA Brexit)
    LD Revoke

    That’s your choice.


  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I agree with your take on numbers, not many but vociferous. However I hope that shouting very loudly, like that prat outside Parliament, will be counter productive.

    The crunch is going to come next year. There is no way on this earth that we're going to get an FTA with the EU without accepting a whole bunch of EU regulation. Under the Boris Withdrawal Agreement, we no longer have the backstop as a fall-back option, so our negotiating position will be extremely weak and it'll be 'sign up to our regulation or trash your economy' again.

    In practice this will be a hollow argument, because we'll be following EU regulations de facto even if we crash out on WTO terms. The EU is a regulatory super-power, right on our borders, accounting for a huge chunk of our trade. There is absolutely no way we can ignore that. However, in political terms signing up to all that regulation is going to cause the mother of all rows in the Conservative Party (again!).
    Not sure I'm with you on that but it's definitely tomorrows problem, provided Brexit gets done today..
  • Scott_P said:
    Another poll with the tories on 40%...i just cant see it. Boris and brexit are just too devisive.
  • Jonathan said:

    BXP No deal
    CON Deal (Singapore Brexit)
    LAB Referendum (EEA Brexit)
    LD Revoke

    That’s your choice.

    You think the LibDems might get a majority?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,014
    Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....

    What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s not clear whether an alliance would really help the Tories in Labour v Tory marginals , most of their voters have returned back to the party on the back of Johnson’s deal .

    It might be better to have the BP standing if they take more Labour Leavers than Tories. However the BP standing in other areas could help the Lib Dems .

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    Yes.
    How much would the GE be put back if (God forbid) HM the Q were to keel over before 12th December?
    “Operation London Bridge” in the middle of an election campaign would the the worst nightmare for an awful lot of civil servants. From memory it’s something like 10 days of official mourning, which of course would put the election in the middle of Christmas - and with the whole nation in a sad mood telling any and all campaigning politicians to f*** off.
    That's what I was thinking. If the worst happened, I can't see how we vote before January.

    And let's face it, at her age, any serious health issue can be terminal.
    In theory yes, but what would be the practicalities, and by what mechanism could the date be changed with Parliament dissolved?

    The PM likely has extensive powers under the Civil Contingencies Act, but he’d need to consult with the King, and be seen to reschedule the election is a way that can’t be portrayed as partisan.

    On the positive side, there’s a pretty good chance of Jeremy Corbyn putting his foot in it, in a spectacular way. He’s not one for protocol, or deference to Royalty.
  • tyson said:

    Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....

    What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?

    It wouldn't.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    I know that some people are saying they don't want this to be a Brexit election, but looking at those figures I can't see the LibDems talking about anything else.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Alistair said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Alistair said:

    I think people may be under estimating how great the messaging of
    A ) willing to work with the Tories
    B ) only if they drop the terrible deal

    It's gentle to the ear of the potential Con/BXP switcher. It makes the Con/BXP switcher feel enlightened, encouraged in. Not haranguaged.

    It also worked on Lab/BXP switchers as well by rejecting Tory Brexit.

    The problem is Tory voters support the deal, and Farage doesn't have any good arguments for why it is bad.
    You are trying to look at substance and reality.

    I'm telling you that the WAB doesn't get Brexit done. I mean look at this, there is another deadline after we have passed the WAB, I don't think we are really out of Europe. We haven't Brexited at all!
    Is the revoke option still available post WAB?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    tyson said:

    Farage's intervention has had a major impact on the Betfair overall majority market....Boris drifting out and NOM now less than evens.....

    What would happen if the election led to the Tories say 10/15 short of a majority? How would that resolve anything?

    It wouldn't.
    I suspect if the Tories were 10 short of a majority, it would get over the line. If theh were 20 short, it would drag on for years.
  • There we have it. The remain vote heading for the LibDems. Our clear position vs Labour's confused position should keep that moving even further in our direction.

    And no of course I'm not predicting a Brexit or LibDem majority. But the Garage challenge today keeps Brexit front and centre in this election.

    Some very poorly informed people have been gaslit most recently by the Tories about the need to get Brexit done and just leave. My pub conversations with voters are always this - they don't want lengthy negotiations and payments to the EU they want out. Now.

    Farage shines a light on things the Tories have tried to game for themselves and it will spectacularly backfire. The Battle for Brexit is still to be won - for Proper Brexit. A Brexit Party vote isn't a vote for remain when you are a Labour leaver or a Tory hard brexiteer. It's what you already did in the Euros and what you have been conditioned to do.

    The notion that this will be a two party rerun of 2017 really is wishful thinking
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Jonathan said:

    BXP No deal
    CON Deal (Singapore Brexit)
    LAB Referendum (EEA Brexit)
    LD Revoke

    That’s your choice.


    Labour wouldn't do an EEA Brexit. It binds them to state aid rules. It is a referendum between a CU but non-EEA Brexit vs Remain. With the Tories standing on a True Leave platform the following election.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited November 2019
    deleted
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,917

    Jonathan said:

    BXP No deal
    CON Deal (Singapore Brexit)
    LAB Referendum (EEA Brexit)
    LD Revoke

    That’s your choice.

    You think the LibDems might get a majority?
    Conventional wisdom says No. But conventional wisdom has been wrong consistently for the past 3 years.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
    I’m expecting Betfair to pay out once Parliament actually gets dissolved for the election, which should happen next week. Until the dissolution, the election is not 100% confirmed and could theoretically not happen.
    Thx
  • Endillion said:

    This is easy stuff for the Tory strategists. They can now add Farage to the list of people who don't want to resolve Brexit.

    "Vote Conservative to get Brexit done and move on. Vote Corbyn, Farage or Swinson for more dither and delay."

    But if Boris gets Brexit 'done' on 31st Jan there will still be at least 2 more years of Brexit.
    The only way to get Brexit finished straightaway is to Revoke (Swinson).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433

    Alistair said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Alistair said:

    I think people may be under estimating how great the messaging of
    A ) willing to work with the Tories
    B ) only if they drop the terrible deal

    It's gentle to the ear of the potential Con/BXP switcher. It makes the Con/BXP switcher feel enlightened, encouraged in. Not haranguaged.

    It also worked on Lab/BXP switchers as well by rejecting Tory Brexit.

    The problem is Tory voters support the deal, and Farage doesn't have any good arguments for why it is bad.
    You are trying to look at substance and reality.

    I'm telling you that the WAB doesn't get Brexit done. I mean look at this, there is another deadline after we have passed the WAB, I don't think we are really out of Europe. We haven't Brexited at all!
    Is the revoke option still available post WAB?
    No, once we’ve left, we’ve left - even if we’re still arguing about the future relationship. Going back in would mean rejoining.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    theakes said:

    Labouir vote down 32% at Bromsgrove yesterday fell from 1st place to 4rth. Is this a harbinger of what might be coming?

    There was a new IND who took 22%

    But I could see Tories flat and Labour down 10 > LD as very plausible
This discussion has been closed.