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  • AndyJS said:
    BOOM!

    When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.

    Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
    Most "remainers", including the designers of the Benn Act primarily wanted to avoid no deal and the disaster that would bring. They have avoided no deal for now and made it very unlikely as part of our EU exit forever. Yes high fiving would be deserved but I doubt it is the style of Benn, Grieve, Boles, Letwin, Cooper, Clarke et al.
  • DavidL said:

    Flanner said:

    Brom said:

    There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.

    Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.

    Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.

    Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
    This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?

    Its facile.

    In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
    The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
    The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
    No it won’t because that won’t be enough time, so we’ll need to extend it before July 2020. The main difference between Johnson’s deal and May’s is that Johnson’s gives the EU more leverage to use against us at the end of transition.
    Another case of "not enough time left to reach an agreement". Heard that before somewhere.

    And with the UK having far more scope to refocus more of its trade elsewhere if the EU unwisely tried to play silly buggers, there is less leverage for the EU rather than more.


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    AndyJS said:
    BOOM!

    When Remainers blocked the election vote in September and passed the Benn Act and were high fiving each other at how clever they were and how the BXP would surge leaving Boris dead in a ditch I was laughed at for suggesting there'd be polling with the Tories on 40 by the end of October.

    Well there's another. I wonder if Remainers still think they were clever dicks and will have left Boris unpopularly dead? Or were they trying to be too clever by half.
    Remainers =/= people wanting to see an anti-semitic communist in power.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited November 2019

    How much airtime will the LDs get?

    If they got equal with Labour I imagine they could overtake them but I suppose they won't even get close. Are they even considered a major party nowadays?

    The panelbase you were just so excited about certainly doesn't indicate that.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,293
    edited November 2019

    How much airtime will the LDs get?

    If they got equal with Labour I imagine they could overtake them but I suppose they won't even get close. Are they even considered a major party nowadays?

    It's far less set-in-stone than in the olden days (ie not so much in the way of rigid percentages etc).

    But in UK-wide coverage I'd expect a realistic assessment to be Tories and Labour roughly equal, with LD and BXP* on the next row in the grid, then SNP/Plaid/Greens. There may not be much of a gap between those.. especially the first two rows.

    (*assuming they stand in most constituencies. No point in covering them if their candidates aren't on the ballot. I suspect this is a key driver in Farage holding out the possibility of a national campaign)

    EDIT TO ADD: But I think whether Lab/Con/LD get coverage ratios of 5:5:3 or 5:5:4 is less of an issue than the social media game nowadays. Mass media is still (probably most) important, but the exact ratios will matter less than how much stuff then gets shared.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    Dadge said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'd expect the Labour vote to go up and the LibDem to come down as voters begin to think how they will actually vote in their constituency.

    This is the tactical vote effect which reduces the overall LD share as LDs are contenders in far fewer seats than Labour.
    I think that's right. What we don't know is how far voters are intelligently assessing the local chances. The poll has 46% of voters in the Lab/LD/Green pool (cf. my earlier post in response to Foxy's graph). If half of them are essentially mobile between all three parties (as the graph suggests) AND that half correctly assess the constituency position, then this is a competitive election. If they don't, then it isn't.

    Incidentally, in my constituency (Surrey SW), we've just had three large LD leaflets so far, and one Tory "survey" (ostensibly not seeking votes, the usual "we just want to ask what you think" thing).
    I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.

    MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.
    The LDs have more activists than seats, so there's a lot of work on long shots, building them up for the future. If it weren't for the incumbency of J Hunt this would be a Tory-LD marginal, and there has to be a good chance he'll throw the towel in before the 2024 election.
    I think that he will be back in the Cabinet after the election, quite possibly as Chancellor where Javid has disappointed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897
    AndyJS said:
    The squeeze is on. Heading to 40/35/12/5/3 ??
  • DavidL said:

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
    I agree he would win comfortably if he stood. I simply do not think he will stand and would be keen for a wager on it given how confident many are that he will do.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    edited November 2019
    Farage is crucifying Boris! He really is a clown but he's doing us all a favour. He's so predictable!

    Don't ever change Nige! The opposition needs you!
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Sandpit said:

    What is interesting and totally unpredictable is just how wide a marginal the pollsters are getting various vote shares e.g. Lib dems somewhere between 14 and 24%.

    There’s definitely an opportunity to make money betting on this election - if only we knew how.

    Sadly I’m flat out at work for the next few weeks, and won’t have much time to study the form, so to speak. Some constituency level polling would definitely be useful though.
    As others have mentioned, Scotland apart the constituency level polling last time was very off.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    If such a market was to exist I would be very happy to lay the Bojo To Move side.

    If I was to lose then I would make back my money with a modest stake on Labour to form next government market.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306

    DavidL said:

    Flanner said:

    Brom said:

    There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.

    Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.

    Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.

    Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
    This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?

    Its facile.

    In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
    The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
    The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
    No it won’t because that won’t be enough time, so we’ll need to extend it before July 2020. The main difference between Johnson’s deal and May’s is that Johnson’s gives the EU more leverage to use against us at the end of transition.
    Another case of "not enough time left to reach an agreement". Heard that before somewhere.

    And with the UK having far more scope to refocus more of its trade elsewhere if the EU unwisely tried to play silly buggers, there is less leverage for the EU rather than more.

    You predict that Johnson will again capitulate and give the EU a deal on its terms in order to avoid having to delay?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
    I agree he would win comfortably if he stood. I simply do not think he will stand and would be keen for a wager on it given how confident many are that he will do.
    It would be a real Letwin to do the chicken run. Even May might have blanched at such stupidity.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kinabalu said:

    AndyJS said:
    The squeeze is on. Heading to 40/35/12/5/3 ??
    The PB brain trust assures us that as soon as Swinson gets on TV, voters the nation over will swoon over her.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
    I agree he would win comfortably if he stood. I simply do not think he will stand and would be keen for a wager on it given how confident many are that he will do.
    It would be a real Letwin to do the chicken run. Even May might have blanched at such stupidity.
    When it happens the Tory strategists on here will declare it a master stroke for some spurious reason.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,718
    Dadge said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'd expect the Labour vote to go up and the LibDem to come down as voters begin to think how they will actually vote in their constituency.

    This is the tactical vote effect which reduces the overall LD share as LDs are contenders in far fewer seats than Labour.
    I think that's right. What we don't know is how far voters are intelligently assessing the local chances. The poll has 46% of voters in the Lab/LD/Green pool (cf. my earlier post in response to Foxy's graph). If half of them are essentially mobile between all three parties (as the graph suggests) AND that half correctly assess the constituency position, then this is a competitive election. If they don't, then it isn't.

    Incidentally, in my constituency (Surrey SW), we've just had three large LD leaflets so far, and one Tory "survey" (ostensibly not seeking votes, the usual "we just want to ask what you think" thing).
    I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.

    MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.
    The LDs have more activists than seats, so there's a lot of work on long shots, building them up for the future. If it weren't for the incumbency of J Hunt this would be a Tory-LD marginal, and there has to be a good chance he'll throw the towel in before the 2024 election.
    To be scrupulously fair, I think all the parties have more activists than seats.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,038
    edited November 2019
    Barnesian said:


    I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.

    MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.

    Can you link to the MRP polling? And I'd be interested in your model if you want to share it, to use (with credit!) in an article for PB. I'm at [email protected]

    The LIbDems really are trying hard here. I live at the very end of a semi-rural lane - the sort of place that makes even hardened canvassers like me tend to say "Oh, never mind".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,592
    The BXP seems to have set itself up for standing in every seat, or the most humiliating climbdown, since Bozo clearly can’t afford to abandon his deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    PaulM said:

    Where's the evidence for this ?

    Looking at the Labour leave seats like Wigan, St Helens North, Leigh etc the Tory+UKIP vote went down whiel Labour's surged.
    I think...

    THERE MAY WELL BE AN ASSUMPTION OF HOMOGENEITY WRT THE LEAVE/REMAIN SPLIT FOR VOTERS OF DIFFERENT PARTIES IN IAN WARREN et al LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODELS WHEN ACTUALLY THE LEAVE/REMAIN VOTE IS MORE HOMOGENOUS OVER A CONSTITUENCY AND HAS REDUCED VARIANCE OVER PARTY LINES.

    In essence the London Tory and London Labour voters are more similar to each other on Brexit than London Labour and Wigan Labour are...…….
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,592

    Barnesian said:


    I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.

    MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.

    Can you link to the MRP polling? And I'd be interested in your model if you want to share it, to use (with credit!) in an article for PB. I'm at [email protected]

    The LIbDems really are trying hard here. I live at the very end of a semi-rural lane - the sort of place that makes even hardened canvassers like me tend to say "Oh, never mind".
    There are lot of motivated remainer LibDems in Counties like yours, and few are going to (or need to) drive several hours west to help in a more easily winnable seat. For Home Counties LibDems the coming campaign is the opportunity of a lifetime.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,897

    The PB brain trust assures us that as soon as Swinson gets on TV, voters the nation over will swoon over her.

    Well my wife was going to vote LD but she informed me yesterday that Jo Swinson has put her right off and it will be Labour. No pressure from me, I assure you.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
    Uxbridge MRP Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn is 40/23/16/14/5
    My model is 43/27/15/13/1

    I think this is an easy hold for Johnson.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,024
    edited November 2019

    DavidL said:

    Flanner said:

    Brom said:

    There is nothing confusing about the Tory position on Brexit.

    Alright: the Tory position is plain dishonest.

    Johnson's proposals don't offer "Brexit done" by Oct 31, Jan 31 or whatever date in 2020 or 2021 we next extend to. Anything other than Remain or total withdrawal means years of continuing squabbles.

    Maybe, at first sight for some, merely squabbles that creep into the TV news depressingly often. But for anyone running an organisation that offers jobs or orders, squabbles that'll depress demand and investment - and cut jobs.
    This is just utter nonsense. We will be out. And in a transition with a view to negotiating a trade deal both with the EU and other countries around the world. Which may go on for some time and change over the years. But we will be out. Is Switzerland, which has been in pretty much continuous negotiation with the EU for the last 20 years, in or out?

    Its facile.

    In contrast the others want us to remain in whilst negotiating their fantasy deals. In. It really makes no sense.
    The transition deal is nothing like Switzerland’s deal. We would be subject to the ECJ and all new EU law automatically with no say.
    The transition will last for a piffling 11 months after 31st January 2020. The transitional agreement's contents are pretty irrelevant. The agreement does not legally commit 98% of the UK to staying in the single market after 31st December 2020 (with the other 2% having the choice). That's why I find it hard to take Farage's claims seriously, because everything seems up for grabs now in terms of what the EU and UK negotiate for the trading relationship post 31st December 2020.
    No it won’t because that won’t be enough time, so we’ll need to extend it before July 2020. The main difference between Johnson’s deal and May’s is that Johnson’s gives the EU more leverage to use against us at the end of transition.
    Another case of "not enough time left to reach an agreement". Heard that before somewhere.

    And with the UK having far more scope to refocus more of its trade elsewhere if the EU unwisely tried to play silly buggers, there is less leverage for the EU rather than more.

    You predict that Johnson will again capitulate and give the EU a deal on its terms in order to avoid having to delay?
    With such nonsense you are just trying to wind me up. Go find someone else to try and annoy. I have better things to do than indulge your parodies of the truth.

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,293
    edited November 2019

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
    I agree he would win comfortably if he stood. I simply do not think he will stand and would be keen for a wager on it given how confident many are that he will do.
    It would be a real Letwin to do the chicken run. Even May might have blanched at such stupidity.
    When it happens the Tory strategists on here will declare it a master stroke for some spurious reason.
    Had there been signs of a more co-ordinated anti-Tory game or a Labour party with more widespread appeal, I'd rate the chances higher.

    Beating him probably needs all the other (ie non-Tory/BXP) parties to coalesce formally or informally around a high-profile anti-Boris candidate, and I don't see it happening. So Boris won't want to risk the chicken allegation.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,293
    edited November 2019
    xx deleted - repeat xx

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Okay. Surely backing SCon seats 1-10 @1.33 (effectively, split across the two bands) is a good bet?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,592

    Barnesian said:


    I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.

    MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.

    Can you link to the MRP polling? And I'd be interested in your model if you want to share it, to use (with credit!) in an article for PB. I'm at [email protected]

    The LIbDems really are trying hard here. I live at the very end of a semi-rural lane - the sort of place that makes even hardened canvassers like me tend to say "Oh, never mind".
    At least your PB friends can be reassured at hearing that as a former communist you have chosen the location of your dacha in Surrey very wisely.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Ladbrokes have a SCon seat market up


    1-5 5/4
    6-10 9/4
    11-15 5/1

    5/4 for 1-5? Nice.
    I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
    Yep, I'm on for the max they'd allow me. Which isn't much.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Nice quandary for Boris. I'm sure that in an ideal world most Brexiters would like to redo the Withdrawal Agreement. And if Farage's candidates don't stand, Boris would probably win a landslide and have free rein to do just that.

    But that ship has sailed, really.

    And Tory HQ must be reasonably confident at the moment that they can win even with the Brexit Party in the mix.

    But Farage has been keeping his powder dry, so his party's ratings are artificially low at the moment. When he launches their campaign they'll rebound a bit.

    Then there's the GE campaign. Both the LDs and Labour need to assign some of their strategy to hyping up rifts between Johnson and Farage.

  • Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:
    I hope Betfair put up a market on will Johnson stand in Uxbridge. What sort of rates are people willing to offer that he doesnt? Sounds like many of you are very confident.
    Boris got just over 50% of the vote in Uxbridge last time out. His majority went down because of a Labour surge with the Lib Dems nowhere. Given current polling or anything like it his majority will substantially increase whilst 5K remainers switch from Labour to the Lib Dems to no effect. It will be a walk in the park.
    Uxbridge MRP Con/Lab/LD/BXP/Grn is 40/23/16/14/5
    My model is 43/27/15/13/1

    I think this is an easy hold for Johnson.
    My model gives something very similar. The only scenario in which Johnson loses Uxbridge is one where the Tories are out anyway, in which case he would be ejected as leader and I imagine would not be that interested in remaining an MP. It would be terrible optics to do the chicken run, I cannot imagine he has any intention of doing it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Ladbrokes have a SCon seat market up


    1-5 5/4
    6-10 9/4
    11-15 5/1

    5/4 for 1-5? Nice.
    I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
    Yep, I'm on for the max they'd allow me. Which isn't much.
    At the last two elections my money has come from Scotland bets. Going outside Scotland cost me money (bar some inside knowledge about how campaigning was going in Ilford North).

    Lets lineup profitable scotland nonsense.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308

    Barnesian said:


    I'm surprised the LDs are putting so much effort in. It's hardly a target seat.

    MRP has the LDs on 30% in SW Surrey. My model has them on 26%. Tories around 50%.

    Can you link to the MRP polling? And I'd be interested in your model if you want to share it, to use (with credit!) in an article for PB. I'm at [email protected]

    The LIbDems really are trying hard here. I live at the very end of a semi-rural lane - the sort of place that makes even hardened canvassers like me tend to say "Oh, never mind".
    The MRP polling is at https://getvoting.org/

    Put in a SW Surrey postcode and read the numbers off the graph.

    The current results of my model are here.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCm3uVr3Z6DI4nFxUjmOyKRGZPNqOLu1BMKVeZvv3T8/edit?usp=sharing

    My model is too messy to share as is, and would need a lot of tidying up and annotation to be usable by anyone else. I have described the assumptions on the board.

    I have to go out shortly but when I've time, I'll put the assumptions up on the google document.

  • This thread has done a chicken run
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Ladbrokes have a SCon seat market up


    1-5 5/4
    6-10 9/4
    11-15 5/1

    5/4 for 1-5? Nice.
    I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
    Yep, I'm on for the max they'd allow me. Which isn't much.
    Plaid 4 or less 4-6 looks good too I think. They look like they'll score similar to last time and I expect the Lib Dems to win Ceredigion.
    They also need to gain Ynys Mons - the stars really need to align for them to win 5 and I don't think that's a 6-4 shot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,592
    For anyone with an underemployed bank balance, Ladbrokes 1/16 on the LibDems winning between 0 and 179 seats looks like a fairly safe investment
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Ladbrokes have a SCon seat market up


    1-5 5/4
    6-10 9/4
    11-15 5/1

    5/4 for 1-5? Nice.
    I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
    Yep, I'm on for the max they'd allow me. Which isn't much.
    They let me stick on a bet boost to take it to 13/10
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    kinabalu said:

    The PB brain trust assures us that as soon as Swinson gets on TV, voters the nation over will swoon over her.

    Well my wife was going to vote LD but she informed me yesterday that Jo Swinson has put her right off and it will be Labour. No pressure from me, I assure you.
    Safe for you to take the apron off now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    Barnesian said:

    Farage is offering an alliance if Johnson drops the WAB.

    Preposterous.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,449

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Ladbrokes have a SCon seat market up


    1-5 5/4
    6-10 9/4
    11-15 5/1

    5/4 for 1-5? Nice.
    I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
    Yep, I'm on for the max they'd allow me. Which isn't much.
    I would be wary of that - it would require something like an 18 percentage points difference between SCon and SNP. Given the possibility that a Farage-led BXP is less appealing to Scots, and that the Scottish Greens seem to be putting up candidates in at least a dozen 2017 SNP-held marginals that might be distract attention, that might be difficult to achieve.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    sarissa said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Ladbrokes have a SCon seat market up


    1-5 5/4
    6-10 9/4
    11-15 5/1

    5/4 for 1-5? Nice.
    I haven't immediatly smashed into that but I think after I have thought about it for a bit I am indeed going to drive up a truck full of cash to Shadsy's door.
    Yep, I'm on for the max they'd allow me. Which isn't much.
    I would be wary of that - it would require something like an 18 percentage points difference between SCon and SNP. Given the possibility that a Farage-led BXP is less appealing to Scots, and that the Scottish Greens seem to be putting up candidates in at least a dozen 2017 SNP-held marginals that might be distract attention, that might be difficult to achieve.
    You can cover 6-10 as well and still be in profit.
This discussion has been closed.