Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be te

123578

Comments

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Barnesian said:

    It sounds as if he'll stand only in Labour seats.

    https://www.thebrexitparty.org/events/

    That would include seats the Tories are hoping to win though, I assume.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,485
    Barnesian said:

    It sounds as if he'll stand only in Labour seats.

    https://www.thebrexitparty.org/events/

    Not how I heard it!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    edited November 2019


    As ever, this is where the US forgets the “well regulated” bit of Adam Smith. It’s fine for private business to target maximum cash, provided the market is shaped by a regulator to either ensure competition or otherwise restrict monopolies. See also rental property in London and the commuter belt...

    Actually that is not right. The US has a long history of really quite draconian regulation of big business to avoid monoploies. Its anti-trust laws, dating right back to the break-up of Standard Oil, are far more powerful, and more frequently used, than anything in Europe, and it is really quite likely that some of the tech giants will be forcibly split up in the next few years. It's a myth that the US is a business free-for-all. There's also a load of low-level bureaucratic interference in the operation of companies, such as rules on procurement favouring suppliers run by veterans, women and ethnic minorities.

    What is true is that the US healthcare system is completely broken. That's not just because of big pharma, it's also because of a surfeit of lawyers.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    O'Mara, Letwin, Grieve, P Hammond, possibly Vaz, Soubry, Wollaston, Bercow, its just possible that the next Parliament will be a better place. Clarke and Stewart will be significant losses of course.

    Clarke's a loss for his history, I'm fond of him but how much has he done in the last 2 years as opposed to the last 49? He's well past his prime and overdue a well deserved retirement.

    Stewart I'm not sure besides winning lots of fans due to the fact he can walk and pretend he's holding the cameramans camera that he's actually done.
    He made real efforts to sell May's deal when she didn't even seem to be bothering herself. His intelligent, reasoned and consensual approach to politics is something we could do with a lot more of in all parties.

    I agree that it is time Ken retired. Despite never getting the top job he has been one of the most distinguished and useful politicians of his generation.
    Fair point about his efforts to sell May's deal, he was the only one that tried, she couldn't sell water to a dehydrated man lost in a desert.

    Clarke is the best PM we never had. I was terribly upset and disgusted with Tory Members that they chose IDS over Clarke - worst decision ever!
    Agree with that. It was completely obvious that IDS would be a disaster. Extraordinary that faced with a choice of heavyweights like Portillo and Clarke the party ended up with Capt Duncan Smith.
    IDS never lost a General Election as leader, unlike Howard :lol:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Tory majority certainly drifting, yet BXP vote share odds not changing much...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage: we want a Brexit coalition.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:


    Don’t get me wrong, our system works well for us and we should try and defend it; but the US does have a legitimate grievance in that precisely because it’s healthcare system is so poorly designed it pays more than it’s fair share of development costs. The rest of the world gets a free ride off the US inability to manage healthcare well.

    That's true, we are getting a .
    I agree, but the “fair” .
    Not necessarily. A lot of US distortion is entirely self-inflicted and has
    And don't lose sight of the fact that drug costs are only a small proportion of US healthcare spending. Probably the easiest bit of the tangle to unsnarl, though - and certainly the easiest to describe and compare, which is why they get so much attention.
    Most US insurance doesn't include long term pharmaceuticals, so that cost falls directly on the patient. Of course insurance often doesn't cover pre existing conditions, hence the deplorable state of diabetes care in the USA. Insulin can often be $1,000 per month.
    Surely that’s a big multiple of cost price?! Been ages since I did stuff on pharma so might be misremembering, but I recall insulin being dirt cheap these days. From memory, wasn’t the original patent even given away when it was invented because it would save so many lives?

    They are mad.
    Klobuchar has been strong on this:

    https://medicareworld.com/healthcare/klobuchar-insulin-prices/

    It is absolutely crazy, but not just insulin. Despite epinephrine bring dirt cheap EpiPen have become ridiculously expensive. It is just profiteering.

    US healthcare is a business, and the purpose of that business is like any other, to extract the maximum amount of money from the customer.
    But unlike other businesses the customer often has no choice.

    Well, the alternative is dying.
    EpiPen is a good example of US Pharma profiteering. When Mylan bought the rights in 2007 they ramped up the price from $50 to $600, with no research costs to recoup. Finally they have brought out a generic version, but still $150 to $350.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/fda-approves-generic-version-of-mylans-600-epipens-but-the-price-is-tbd/
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,695
    Farage talking abut a "leave alliance".

    Very critical of Boris`s deal.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    Farage is offering an alliance if Johnson drops the WAB.
  • Barnesian said:

    Farage is offering an alliance if Johnson drops the WAB.

    Ha ha! He can't seriously expect that to fly.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,485
    Farage: if Boris doesn't sign up to his (Nigel's) plan, they will contest every single seat in England, Scotland and Wales.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    Farage is offering an alliance if Johnson drops the WAB.

    Well he knows that isn't going to happen
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    If Johnson does not drop WAB, Farage will contest every single seat in England Scotland and Wales.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,485
    edited November 2019
    So, Farage is going to torpedo Brexit. Nice one.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,890
    Anorak said:
    Thanks for that. For other anoraks there's a full set of tables referenced there.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,695
    Bang goes Tory hope of a GE majority
  • Looks like BXP in every seat.

    Two really bad days for Johnson in a row. Looks like this GE is becoming much more open.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage contradicting himself immediately by saying the party will step aside in certain constituencies.
  • BXP wants WTO and nothing else.

    Hope their candidates can actually explain what that means.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    AndyJS said:

    Farage contradicting himself immediately by saying the party will step aside in certain constituencies.

    How confusing
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    edited November 2019
    Anorak said:
    typo shirley?

    "Despite Boris Johnson shifting the party’s position to a harder Brexit than his predecessor, 61% of 2017 Conservative voters who also backed Remain in 2016 say they will still vote Conservative.

    "Those who intend to leave the Conservatives are almost exclusively switching to the Liberal Democrats, who have almost a third of the 2017 Conservative, 2016 Leave vote."

    Should be a third of the 2017 Conservative, 2016 REMAIN vote?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    O'Mara, Letwin, Grieve, P Hammond, possibly Vaz, Soubry, Wollaston, Bercow, its just possible that the next Parliament will be a better place. Clarke and Stewart will be significant losses of course.

    Clarke's a loss for his history, I'm fond of him but how much has he done in the last 2 years as opposed to the last 49? He's well past his prime and overdue a well deserved retirement.

    Stewart I'm not sure besides winning lots of fans due to the fact he can walk and pretend he's holding the cameramans camera that he's actually done.
    He made real efforts to sell May's deal when she didn't even seem to be bothering herself. His intelligent, reasoned and consensual approach to politics is something we could do with a lot more of in all parties.

    I agree that it is time Ken retired. Despite never getting the top job he has been one of the most distinguished and useful politicians of his generation.
    Fair point about his efforts to sell May's deal, he was the only one that tried, she couldn't sell water to a dehydrated man lost in a desert.

    Clarke is the best PM we never had. I was terribly upset and disgusted with Tory Members that they chose IDS over Clarke - worst decision ever!
    Agree with that. It was completely obvious that IDS would be a disaster. Extraordinary that faced with a choice of heavyweights like Portillo and Clarke the party ended up with Capt Duncan Smith.
    IDS never lost a General Election as leader, unlike Howard :lol:
    IDS did surprisingly well at the ballot box. Trouble is, by then it was too late. Perhaps a future counterfactual will involve the plotters glancing at election results and not just the weekly pasting their man got at PMQs.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    But he'll be flexible if individual Tory candidates reject the WAB and not compete in that constituency.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited November 2019

    egg said:

    egg said:

    So with Farage placing candidates to ensure brexit Parliament with diminished labour, and Russia interference on side of Brexit Boris too, that’s game over already Mr Corbyn isn’t it? 😁

    I think it could prove Farage made a mistake by standing alongside Boris and his deal, instead he could have exploited plenty of clear water between himself and Boris, NI, Trumps comments, etc because his stance close to Boris in this election as Trump told him to can’t easily be backed out of in the coming years

    Forget about Farage he's history and trying and flailing to stay relevant. The countries moved on, he wasn't involved with Vote Leave and he won't be involved when the Vote Leave team implement Brexit.
    But you agree Farage is charismatic?
    And that Boris as a character will always be under attack and divisive?
    And that his deal is far from perfect?
    Farage is a charismatic outsider, good for protest votes, not so relevant to genera elections.

    Boris is a character who will be under attack and divisive sure, all Prime Ministers are and all transformative ones even moreso. Boris is also charismatic and finds ways to neuter attacks and be less divisive than otherwise you'd expect - a skill Blair and Cameron both had too.

    His deal is far from perfect but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. It is much better than nothing and much better than May's fatally flawed deal.
    However you can’t argue against Farage is right, Boris and Cummings wrong in that health care in UK is no where near the best in the world when comparing us like with like to similar countries. People go abroad for dentistry, like Madonna to US to have babies, Because it’s an outdated model of provision in 2020s. There’s always fund raising on local news to send a kid to Spain, or US or Czechoslovakia for the treatment they need. Going abroad for treatment is cheaper than staying home on NHS. Why shouldn’t it be changed and privatised?

    Before any Tory voter rush to defend second best for UK citizens, you will be defending something that isn’t likely to survive next five years without big shakeup .
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,695
    Farage is trying to deny Tories of a majority and win a few BXP seats - in hope that this enables the formation a coalition in government.

    In essence, he hasn`t moderated his ambitions, and is running a real risk that this will put Corbyn in Downing Street and mark the end of the Brexit project.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    In the context of the BXP standing, it is worth revisiting this graph dated from the summer. Not so much floating voters as voters with multiple options.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    If a non-aggression pact is agreed, BXP would stand in about 150 Labour seats that the Tories don't have a chance in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?
  • Stocky said:

    Farage is trying to deny Tories of a majority and win a few BXP seats - in hope that this enables the formation a coalition in government.

    In essence, he hasn`t moderated his ambitions, and is running a real risk that this will put Corbyn in Downing Street and mark the end of the Brexit project.

    I have a theory, which is probably bollocks, that Farage, from the time he first left the Tory Party, is and always has been a pro-Labour agent-provocateur.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    Not spoken officially with No 10 yet.
  • Foxy said:

    Surely that’s a big multiple of cost price?! Been ages since I did stuff on pharma so might be misremembering, but I recall insulin being dirt cheap these days. From memory, wasn’t the original patent even given away when it was invented because it would save so many lives?

    They are mad.

    Klobuchar has been strong on this:

    https://medicareworld.com/healthcare/klobuchar-insulin-prices/

    It is absolutely crazy, but not just insulin. Despite epinephrine bring dirt cheap EpiPen have become ridiculously expensive. It is just profiteering.

    US healthcare is a business, and the purpose of that business is like any other, to extract the maximum amount of money from the customer.
    As ever, this is where the US forgets the “well regulated” bit of Adam Smith. It’s fine for private business to target maximum cash, provided the market is shaped by a regulator to either ensure competition or otherwise restrict monopolies. See also rental property in London and the commuter belt...
    The problem the US has is not a lack of regulations in the healthcare industry, it is broken and corruptly overreguated and could do with a big dose of deregulaton!

    Think about it, as you already mentioned insulin [like epinephrine] is not patented and is dirt cheap to produce. I believe producing a months supply of insulin can be done for as little as $40 and sells for over $1000. That's a level of markup that can't be found in other industries.

    Given the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) of Insulin is below 2% and cheaper generic manufactoring and wholesale already exists worldwide, why aren't cheaper generics available in the USA at a fraction of the cost? What is preventing new companies seeing a gap in the market and flooding it with cheaper generics. Why is supply and demand so broken that new companies aren't coming in to lower the price and seize a smaller profit but a real profit? That is what would happen in a truly free market.

    The US system is corruptly preventing the sale of cheaper generics of drugs that are not patented. It is borderline criminal behaviour and has nothing to do with a free marketplace.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    Stocky said:

    Bang goes Tory hope of a GE majority

    Nah, Farage is getting too much attention. His party's votes will be squeezed tighter than a 2015 Lib Dem.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Looks like BXP in every seat.

    Two really bad days for Johnson in a row. Looks like this GE is becoming much more open.

    Hard to see Johnson pulling his deal in favour of Farage clean Brexit.
    Farage is a very impressive public speaker.
    Calm and concise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?

    My sense is that most 'Never Tory' Leavers are as likely to vote NOTA as Labour. Such voters also used to vote Lib Dem when they were the protest option.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?

    It is not a disaster but it is not helpful. I do feel there are a lot of ordinary BXP candidates who will personally stand aside even if it against the party wishes, I do think it is unlikely that the issue of where they are standing will be resolved today, but I assume Nigel and Tice's gameplan is not just JC4PM.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    AndyJS said:

    Farage contradicting himself immediately by saying the party will step aside in certain constituencies.

    With qualifier that the MP publicly denounces WAB will say will go to Westminster to vote against it? Have I got that wrong. That puts clear distance between BP and WAB supporting Tories, whilst trying to splinter them off from supporting WAB.

    My take is the WAB needs to stand up to the attacks on it now or Farage will split leave vote. It’s not certainly split today but if the attacks on the WAB hit home
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Bang goes Tory hope of a GE majority

    Nah, Farage is getting too much attention. His party's votes will be squeezed tighter than a 2015 Lib Dem.
    I maintain if Boris can squeeze them to single figures he should get a majority,
  • Stocky said:

    Farage is trying to deny Tories of a majority and win a few BXP seats - in hope that this enables the formation a coalition in government.

    In essence, he hasn`t moderated his ambitions, and is running a real risk that this will put Corbyn in Downing Street and mark the end of the Brexit project.

    I have a theory, which is probably bollocks, that Farage, from the time he first left the Tory Party, is and always has been a pro-Labour agent-provocateur.
    The counter theory is that Doug Carswell was a Tory mole in Ukip (see eg the Arron Banks book). Not that Nigel Farage doesn't have a long and glorious history of falling out with anyone who blocks his limelight.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?

    Yes, I agree, I don't think it will make much difference and might even help the Tories a bit. For the moment, Boris has most of the nuttier no-dealer types (who might vote either BXP or Tory) sewn up. I don't think that will last, but it will last long enough for this election.
  • Alistair said:
    Buttigieg is going to surprise in Iowa I reckon. He has the most local campaign offices open.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Farage is the emperor with no clothes after Boris returned with deal.

    He doesn't care about a realistic Brexit. He wants a fantasy Brexit which doesn't exist.

    His party's only purpose now is to grab a few Labour Leavers who would never ever vote Tory.
  • Buttigieg is only 3 or so points off taking Iowa. That would transform the race overnight.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A Brexit candidate in a seat like Banff & Buchan will probably sink the Tories. Otherwise I think they might just be able to hold it and similar seats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Buttigieg is my best result, but a note of caution on him - he NEEDS TO outperform significantly (And probably win) in Iowa, his ratings with black voters, an important part of the Democratic primaries, are appallingly low.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited November 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
  • I think the reality is a tad different than some are suggesting.

    1) Farage taking this line makes Boris look like he’s in the middle, between extremes.

    2) Boris still gets to say “I have the simplest position, let’s get Brexit done on my deal”.

    3) Boris can say “a vote for anyone else leads to Jeremy Corbyn”.

    4) Farage will on the other hand eat up Labour votes who won’t vote Tory but dislike Boris.

    The only thing Boris has to do is find a simple way to describe his deal. I think that has to be something around “transitional arrangement” and “moving to a Canada style trade deal”.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    Brom said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Bang goes Tory hope of a GE majority

    Nah, Farage is getting too much attention. His party's votes will be squeezed tighter than a 2015 Lib Dem.
    I maintain if Boris can squeeze them to single figures he should get a majority,
    I agree subject to the condition that the non Tory vote is also split a lot more evenly than it was in 2017. And that looks on the cards atm.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306

    Farage is the emperor with no clothes after Boris returned with deal.

    He doesn't care about a realistic Brexit. He wants a fantasy Brexit which doesn't exist.

    Farage is positioning himself to benefit from the backlash if Boris's deal gets ratified and people find out that nothing has changed, and we're more subservient to the EU than ever.
  • I've said it before and I'll say it again. I have never been convinced Farage is serious about leaving the EU. It is too much of a gravy train and ego trip for him. The man is a supreme egotist and self publicist to a level the likes of Jess Phillips can only aspire to.

    BXP were never going to stand aside.

    As for it hurting Johnson, why would it, BXP draw alot of votes from other parties as well. It is more likely to hurt labour in Northern seats for sure.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?

    Yes, I agree, I don't think it will make much difference and might even help the Tories a bit. For the moment, Boris has most of the nuttier no-dealer types (who might vote either BXP or Tory) sewn up. I don't think that will last, but it will last long enough for this election.
    What percentage of electorate do you think are nuttier no-dealer types? Serious question and "nuttier" is a movable feast
  • Gabs2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
    Well, yes, but that was equally true of Theresa May's deal. You are making the mistake of looking at the facts.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    A Brexit candidate in a seat like Banff & Buchan will probably sink the Tories. Otherwise I think they might just be able to hold it and similar seats.

    Yeah, I think the biggest effect from a betting purpose would be making every NE scotland seat an odds on Tory loss.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Buttigieg is my best result, but a note of caution on him - he NEEDS TO outperform significantly (And probably win) in Iowa, his ratings with black voters, an important part of the Democratic primaries, are appallingly low.

    Yes. But he is working on that. Whether it will be enough is another matter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,013
    AndyJS said:

    Farage contradicting himself immediately by saying the party will step aside in certain constituencies.

    Only where the Tory candidate with essentially stand and campaign for a Brexit Party version of Brexit.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,718
    egg said:

    egg said:



    But you agree Farage is charismatic?
    And that Boris as a character will always be under attack and divisive?
    And that his deal is far from perfect?

    Farage is a charismatic outsider, good for protest votes, not so relevant to genera elections.

    Boris is a character who will be under attack and divisive sure, all Prime Ministers are and all transformative ones even moreso. Boris is also charismatic and finds ways to neuter attacks and be less divisive than otherwise you'd expect - a skill Blair and Cameron both had too.

    His deal is far from perfect but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. It is much better than nothing and much better than May's fatally flawed deal.
    However you can’t argue against Farage is right, Boris and Cummings wrong in that health care in UK is no where near the best in the world when comparing us like with like to similar countries. People go abroad for dentistry, like Madonna to US to have babies, Because it’s an outdated model of provision in 2020s. There’s always fund raising on local news to send a kid to Spain, or US or Czechoslovakia for the treatment they need. Going abroad for treatment is cheaper than staying home on NHS. Why shouldn’t it be changed and privatised?

    Before any Tory voter rush to defend second best for UK citizens, you will be defending something that isn’t likely to survive next five years without big shakeup .
    You're confusing a bunch of issues:

    - Having better treatment available for those who can pay does not necessarily mean that those who can't will also receive better treatment
    - Private treatment in other countries may be better than the NHS and cheaper than UK private care, and therefore attractive to some individuals
    - Some treatment is not available on the NHS because NICE has ruled it inefficient. Other countries offering it does not mean than NICE has made a mistake. People going abroad in search of therapies that they read about online, but which UK doctors won't prescribe for whatever reason, is not an indicator that our healthcare is worse than elsewhere

    The big issue with UK healthcare relative to Europe is, as I understand it, to do with how well our cancer survival rates compare with other European countries. Infant mortality rates also don't look good.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    egg said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    So with Farage placing candidates to ensure brexit Parliament with diminished labour, and Russia interference on side of Brexit Boris too, that’s game over already Mr Corbyn isn’t it? 😁

    I think it could prove Farage made a mistake by standing alongside Boris and his deal, instead he could have exploited plenty of clear water between himself and Boris, NI, Trumps comments, etc because his stance close to Boris in this election as Trump told him to can’t easily be backed out of in the coming years

    Forget about Farage he's history and trying and flailing to stay relevant. The countries moved on, he wasn't involved with Vote Leave and he won't be involved when the Vote Leave team implement Brexit.
    But you agree Farage is charismatic?
    And that Boris as a character will always be under attack and divisive?
    And that his deal is far from perfect?
    Farage is a charismatic outsider, good for protest votes, not so relevant to genera elections.

    Boris is a character who will be under attack and divisive sure, all Prime Ministers are and all transformative ones even moreso. Boris is also charismatic and finds ways to neuter attacks and be less divisive than otherwise you'd expect - a skill Blair and Cameron both had too.

    His deal is far from perfect but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. It is much better than nothing and much better than May's fatally flawed deal.
    However you can’t argue against Farage is right, Boris and Cummings wrong in that health care in UK is no where near the best in the world when comparing us like with like to similar countries. People go abroad for dentistry, like Madonna to US to have babies, Because it’s an outdated model of provision in 2020s. There’s always fund raising on local news to send a kid to Spain, or US or Czechoslovakia for the treatment they need. Going abroad for treatment is cheaper than staying home on NHS. Why shouldn’t it be changed and privatised?

    Before any Tory voter rush to defend second best for UK citizens, you will be defending something that isn’t likely to survive next five years without big shakeup .
    Not sure if you saw my header on the NHS for its 70th anniversary. Still my thoughts, and I was right on being SoS for Health, it kills political careers.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/01/three-score-and-ten-has-the-nhs-reached-the-end-of-its-natural-life/
  • Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    I really never got this NHS worship thing. Respecting doctors and medical staff? Sure.

    But when did a system of funding become an article of faith, what's so special about the NHS that makes it holy and sacred when compared to the German or Swiss models.

    This twitter thread and programme on Dispatches gives some idea of what is in store with Britain Trump doing a deal:

    https://twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1188831701654482945?s=19
    The over use of “secret meeting” to cast suspicion really irritates me

    Civil servants meet pharma industry to discuss drug pricing. No shit. That sort of meeting happens in every industry with every government every day

    There is a difference between “private” and “secret”.

    U.K. drug pricing is a good system. Drug prices are among the lowest in the world. NICE has pioneered value based pricing which is widely copied. Some of the work on outcomes based pricing is cutting edge. The PPRS gives innovators flexibility on pricing

    I’m sure lobbists are going to push for higher pricing. That’s their job. Doesn’t mean that it is going to happen. In any event it’s a decision for the government. If it makes sense (eg increasing the cost of drugs to the NHS by £1bn per year creates £10bn pa of value to the economy) then fine. If the deal as a whole doesn’t make sense then they won’t approve it
    You used to think there was no need to choose between the union and Brexit, but we’ve ended up with a government planning to implement an internal customs border. When something is sufficiently totemic, all sorts of things can get trampled over in its pursuit, even if it doesn’t make sense.
    Is ever closer union sufficiently totemic?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019
    algarkirk said:


    Conclusion:
    1 - FPTP is really shit. It can end up with the incredibly unpopular governments claiming democratic mandates (which is why Conservatives and Labour will never let it go)
    2 - The flip side of the above is that when popularity gets hollowed out enough, you can lose everything really suddenly. (See Scottish Labour for pointers)


    If you are looking for a black swan, or at least a greyish one, a massive LD surge, mostly against Labour looks a possibility. Labour surge like 2017 looking unlikely, Brexit one impossible. In a short time we may be wondering why a decent Labour leader who would have walked it wasn't put in place in time while Swinson is the new Clegg.
    The interesting thing is that a lot of Labour seats are terrible prospects for the Lib Dems. If they do surge my best guess is that while they will take some urban metropolitan seats from Labour they will win more seats from the Tories.

    So this idea that they might replace Labour is really simplistic. They're in no position to win over traditional Labour seats in most of the country.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The irony of Trump being impeached due to trying to get dirt on an potential opponent who won't even be the Dem candidate.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    Gabs2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
    Argue that with Farage.
  • Foxy said:

    Surely that’s a big multiple of cost price?! Been ages since I did stuff on pharma so might be misremembering, but I recall insulin being dirt cheap these days. From memory, wasn’t the original patent even given away when it was invented because it would save so many lives?

    They are mad.

    Klobuchar has been strong on this:

    https://medicareworld.com/healthcare/klobuchar-insulin-prices/

    It is absolutely crazy, but not just insulin. Despite epinephrine bring dirt cheap EpiPen have become ridiculously expensive. It is just profiteering.

    US healthcare is a business, and the purpose of that business is like any other, to extract the maximum amount of money from the customer.
    As ever, this is where the US forgets the “well regulated” bit of Adam Smith. It’s fine for private business to target maximum cash, provided the market is shaped by a regulator to either ensure competition or otherwise restrict monopolies. See also rental property in London and the commuter belt...
    The problem the US has is not a lack of regulations in the healthcare industry, it is broken and corruptly overreguated and could do with a big dose of deregulaton!

    Think about it, as you already mentioned insulin [like epinephrine] is not patented and is dirt cheap to produce. I believe producing a months supply of insulin can be done for as little as $40 and sells for over $1000. That's a level of markup that can't be found in other industries.

    Given the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) of Insulin is below 2% and cheaper generic manufactoring and wholesale already exists worldwide, why aren't cheaper generics available in the USA at a fraction of the cost? What is preventing new companies seeing a gap in the market and flooding it with cheaper generics. Why is supply and demand so broken that new companies aren't coming in to lower the price and seize a smaller profit but a real profit? That is what would happen in a truly free market.

    The US system is corruptly preventing the sale of cheaper generics of drugs that are not patented. It is borderline criminal behaviour and has nothing to do with a free marketplace.
    Cheap generics still have to be licensed. So you as a thrusting entrepreneur see the markup on madeupname, and build a factory and get FDA approval. While you are doing this, the existing maker drops the price to remove your profit. You go bust because you now cannot pay for your shiny new factory, and the existing maker can jack the price back up. And because you know that will happen, you do not bother in the first place.

    That is a bit of a caricature of what the chap who went to jail was doing. @Charles will know more about how it really works.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,897
    Raises the question - should remainers be out canvassing for BXP rather than Lab/LD? ;-)
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Gabs2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
    Well, yes, but that was equally true of Theresa May's deal. You are making the mistake of looking at the facts.
    never a good look in politics
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306

    I've said it before and I'll say it again. I have never been convinced Farage is serious about leaving the EU. It is too much of a gravy train and ego trip for him. The man is a supreme egotist and self publicist to a level the likes of Jess Phillips can only aspire to.

    BXP were never going to stand aside.

    As for it hurting Johnson, why would it, BXP draw alot of votes from other parties as well. It is more likely to hurt labour in Northern seats for sure.

    The thing that hurts Johnson, as @Alistair pointed out, is that it will force people to look at the substance of Johnson's Brexit, when Johnson just wants people to take on trust that it gets Brexit 'done'.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    Barnesian said:

    NOM is now favourite again on Betfair.

    Excellent - I am now in cash out territory.

    btw does anyone know why bf hasn't paid out on 2019 GE? Will I have to wait until Dec 12th?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    I think a Brexit candidate in Workington (and similar seats) would actually help the Tories if anything, as others have already pointed out. It syphons off Labour voters who'd never go the whole hog and vote Conservative.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,917
    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    Pulpstar said:

    Buttigieg is my best result, but a note of caution on him - he NEEDS TO outperform significantly (And probably win) in Iowa, his ratings with black voters, an important part of the Democratic primaries, are appallingly low.

    He looks out of it in NH and SC, and even CA. He has staked all on Iowa. I don't think it will be enough to gain momentum. I am comfortable holding onto my Warren bets for candidate at 23.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    Labour minority government odds have come in.

    Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    Who on earth is surprised? @isam? Anyone?
  • As I expected Farage is going for it. Good. He can win Hartlepool for starters.

    Nice to see Farage portraying the choice as starkly as he has done - neatly fitting my own narrative I'm sowing in this election:

    It's a simple choice. If you want Brexit vote for the Brexit Party. If you want to stop Brexit vote for the Liberal Democrats. If you want confusion and chaos and delay vote Labour or Tory.

    Both Labour and Tories have a totally confused position on Brexit. Tories portraying years of protracted negotiations as "get it done". Labour promising a whole new deal in 3 months (it'll be Johnson's deal plus a Customs Union and restoration of May's UK-wide permanent backstop) then a referendum which they'll decide later. Essentially if you're a voter you have to hope your Labour or Tory MP breaks their whip to deliver remain/leave...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Honestly it feels like Nige has exceeded expectations here.

    He has framed this perfectly - he's directly attacked "Get Brexit Done". Crack that and you crack the Tory voting base for this election.
  • Barnesian said:

    Labour minority government odds have come in.

    Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.

    They would hurt Labour's chances more, surely?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,306
    Scott_P said:
    Farage's raison d'être is to make politicians who lie about the nature of our relationship with the EU suffer. If that results in people embracing a pro-EU case honestly made, I think he will have done us a favour.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    BXP wants WTO and nothing else.

    Hope their candidates can actually explain what that means.

    No doubt if the Tories had gone for WTO terms he would have started referring to the WTO rules as shackles that we must leave. The Boris deal delivers everything Brexiteers have ever wanted for the 98% of Brits that live outside of Northern Ireland. For a man that once touted Norway and Switzerland as positive examples outside the EU, he is being ridiculous. He is now complaining about potential Level Playing Field provisions which exist in the Canada FTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but aren't even in the Boris deal. It is completely ridiculous.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    edited November 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think this is terrible news for the Tories particularly. It might hurt them a couple of % at the margins but surely the BXP is also a repository for plenty of 'Never Tory' leavers too ?

    Yes, I agree, I don't think it will make much difference and might even help the Tories a bit. For the moment, Boris has most of the nuttier no-dealer types (who might vote either BXP or Tory) sewn up. I don't think that will last, but it will last long enough for this election.
    What percentage of electorate do you think are nuttier no-dealer types? Serious question and "nuttier" is a movable feast
    I think there are two types of people who say (or said before Boris got his deal agreed with the EU) that they'd be happy with no deal. The majority had reached this point out of frustration: they didn't prefer no deal, but they had convinced themselves that it wouldn't be very bad. Of course they were wrong on that, but you can see how they got there, given their frustration.

    There is however a minority, notably some of the spartan ERG-er types, who genuinely think that we should have no truck with EU regulation at all. These aren't very numerous but they are dedicated, ruthless and well-organised. They will be throwing rocks when Boris starts having to make compromises to get an FTA, and they'll probably drag some of the former sort with them when they lay in to the FTA on the argument that 'we didn't leave the EU only to sign right back into EU regulation again'.

    I can't look into Nigel Farage's mind, but based on things he's said in the past I don't think he is an extremist no-dealer. However, I do think he'll be prominent in the rock-throwing.
  • So in answer to the question "Is Farage interested delivering Brexit or being on the telly whingeing about still being in the EU?", we seem to be moving towards an answer.

    If he splits votes in southern marginals and lets LD/Lab through.. he will be the main architect of stopping Brexit. (And IMO he won't pick up seats or deliver Tory ones in the north and Midlands to compensate). Even a single figure vote share in the wrong place could cost BJ a majority and clear the way for more dither or a Lab/LD/SNP coalition to push a referendum.

    Farage needed to seal this alliance while Boris was still in No Deal mode. No Tory candidate will now promise to vote against the deal before noms close, because their nom is very likely to be cancelled if they do.

    (checks popcorn stocks)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,013
    Barnesian said:

    Labour minority government odds have come in.

    Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.

    Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    Barnesian said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Farage says the point is that Johnson's deal is not Brexit so he doesn't care if BXP votes denies Johnson a victory.

    Johnson'a deal returns control of:

    - Immigration policy
    - Trade & customs policy
    - Agricultural policy
    - Fisheries
    - Law & justice
    - Financial contributions (after 2020)

    How on Earth is this not Brexit? This is everything eurosceptics have whined about over the years. Because of a special arrangement on Northern Ireland, supported by the people of Northern Ireland, and with a right for them to change their minds every 4 years?
    Argue that with Farage.
    Why? Who cares what he thinks?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,038
    Foxy said:

    In the context of the BXP standing, it is worth revisiting this graph dated from the summer. Not so much floating voters as voters with multiple options.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19

    Yes, that's very illuminating, with the qualification that people are only saying what they'd consider (another way to look at it is that eg. 90% of Tory and Labour voters wouldn't even consider switching to the other side - I think that is much more entrenched than it used to be). Essentially there are two big pools - Con/BXP and Lab/LD/Green - in which around half the voters are pretty open to swimming around tactically. That's where the election will be won or lost.

    Tories and Labour are largely wasting their time if they go for direct switchers, and it's notable than only 25% of Tories are willing to even consider voting LibDem, which shows the ceiling of Swinson's approach of attacking Labour to get Tory switchers.

    But it also means that BXP standing everywhere is mainly bad news for the Tories. 47% of Tories are willing to consider voting BXP, while only 10-11% of Lab/LD voters are open to it at all. Nobody likes rivals being present, however confident they sare of seeing them off.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,718
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Farage: to contest every seat in Britain. Not what I expected.

    I'm suprised. I was expecting contesting every single seat but the demand to drop the WAB is unexpected but, I think, really clever by Farage.

    Really very clever.

    It gets the details of the WAB into the minds of Con/BXP switchers. It makes it a thing talked about by the press.

    Clever, clever, clever.
    You really think Farage wants to spend the campaign debating the relative merits of the WA? I don't. I doubt he's even read it. This is pure ego.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Jonathan said:

    A leave alliance?

    Essentially they’re trying to use FPTP to create a pseudo referendum they can win because they couldn’t win an actual referendum.

    They already did win an actual referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    Endillion said:

    egg said:

    egg said:



    But you agree Farage is charismatic?
    And that Boris as a character will always be under attack and divisive?
    And that his deal is far from perfect?

    Farage is a charismatic outsider, good for protest votes, not so relevant to genera elections.

    Boris is a character who will be under attack and divisive sure, all Prime Ministers are and all transformative ones even moreso. Boris is also charismatic and finds ways to neuter attacks and be less divisive than otherwise you'd expect - a skill Blair and Cameron both had too.

    His deal is far from perfect but don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. It is much better than nothing and much better than May's fatally flawed deal.
    However you can’t argue against Farage is right, Boris and Cummings wrong in that health care in UK is no where near the best in the world when comparing us like with like to similar countries. People go abroad for dentistry, like Madonna to US to have babies, Because it’s an outdated model of provision in 2020s. There’s always fund raising on local news to send a kid to Spain, or US or Czechoslovakia for the treatment they need. Going abroad for treatment is cheaper than staying home on NHS. Why shouldn’t it be changed and privatised?

    Before any Tory voter rush to defend second best for UK citizens, you will be defending something that isn’t likely to survive next five years without big shakeup .
    You're confusing a bunch of issues:

    - Having better treatment available for those who can pay does not necessarily mean that those who can't will also receive better treatment
    - Private treatment in other countries may be better than the NHS and cheaper than UK private care, and therefore attractive to some individuals
    - Some treatment is not available on the NHS because NICE has ruled it inefficient. Other countries offering it does not mean than NICE has made a mistake. People going abroad in search of therapies that they read about online, but which UK doctors won't prescribe for whatever reason, is not an indicator that our healthcare is worse than elsewhere

    The big issue with UK healthcare relative to Europe is, as I understand it, to do with how well our cancer survival rates compare with other European countries. Infant mortality rates also don't look good.
    By and large mortality rates reflect social inequality rather than a healthcare system. If your target is to reduce those, then spend on social reform, housing and other public health measures rather than pharma.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    I really don't think that those Conservatives who were attracted to Farage in the Euros would go near him now. HYUFD's analysis was right. Boris has reunited the Conservative party on the whole. Some Tories will leak to the LibDems but not to Farage who has shown himself up as a charlatan.

    Farage will however harm the Labour party.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308

    Barnesian said:

    Labour minority government odds have come in.

    Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.

    They would hurt Labour's chances more, surely?
    That's not what punters think
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    This still comes down to the ongoing feud between Farage and Cummings..
This discussion has been closed.