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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

All the talk is of elections. This time we might actually see one. In a narrative that has strong echoes of 2017, the talk is all of the Conservatives holding large leads in the polls, remaking their coalition and sweeping all gloriously before them with a victory that will transform the electoral map.

Read the full story here

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Hillary:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

In 2016, Hillary owned the DNC. She locked up the superdelegates. Her people were in positions of control throughout the party.

Now, they're all gone.

She is the woman who lost to Donald Trump. She is aged and increasingly infirm, and wouldn't want to put herself through a bruising election campaign again. She's hated by a substantial minority in the Democratic Party. She has no organisation in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has no money.

She would get null delegates in Iowa. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Anyone who is backing her - even at 80-1 - is throwing their money down the toilet.

Does take two to make a market, though.

I think some people are assuming that because she fought Obama in 2008, and lost, and fought Trump in 2016, and lost, she’s a bit obsessed by it, crazy and arrogant enough to want to run again and, y’know, third time lucky and all that.

Even if she wanted to run again, which she doesn't, she'd get slaughtered in the Primaries.

She's not new and shiny (Buttigieg) or untainted by defeat to Trump (Biden) or in tune with party activists (Warren and Sanders).

She's a scandal ridden old lady with appalling negatives, who can't campaign to save her life, and who no longer has any sway in the Democratic Party.

Look at who gets invited to DNC leadership events. Five years ago, Hillary was the star speaker. Now she's forgotten. There are new relationships in place. Nowadays Cory Booker and Mitch Landrieu are the guys who get invited. She's a nobody in the Democratic Party, a nonperson who's existence has been erased.

Those who put money on her might as well take the cash, douse it in petrol and burn it. The money would then at least provide something useful (heat, light and moderate entertainment).

kle4

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

SunnyJim

The Conservatives may, or may not, get a majority at the next election.

I don't know.

What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.

The political life expectancy of which will be measured in months, if not weeks.

Barnesian

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky confirming split in EU leaders

It only needs one hold out - and Parliament is working Saturday and Sunday to get this over the line for the 31st....

Or No Deal.

Johnson does not want No Deal. It would wreck his premiership and the Tory Party for years to come.

I would call his bluff. I know Letwin and others are terrified of No Deal but I would leave it in Johnson's hands. If it came to the crunch, he'd either have to ask for another extension or revoke or go over the cliff. I don't care which.

blueblue

And what future do the DUP have if they make themselves permanent political enemies of the Conservative Party? If they're going to make themselves indistinguishable from Labour MPs, then that extra 12 billion a year that NI gets would make for some pretty tasty tax cuts for Middle England...

Pulpstar

Isn't bacfking Hillary the quivalent of buying "wework" stock - you can make a profit on it so long as you sell to a bigger sucker ?

I've got a big red number (For me) against her anyway.

sirclive

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

TudorRose

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Yes, but don't worry, we all suffer from it on here! Welcome.

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

nico67 said:

Macron apparently just wants 15 day extension . However it’s not clear if he would agree to a longer one for an election .

It would seem strange for him to rule out the latter as that would be seen as even more political interference which the EU didn’t want .

Macron can see there is an agreed deal that will get passed if the EU holds its nerve. The pyschodrama has an end point.

And he is right.

He is. And he was right at the time of the last extension too. They only partly listened to him then, and the others, including the key player in Ireland, want to take the easy route of 31 January. He'll cave, or try to encourage us to actually leave in November or December rather than use the time for a GE perhaps. But he'll cave.

MarqueeMark

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Yes. You find pb.com essential reading.

But welcome to Bedlam!

RobD

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

That depends on your opinion regarding pineapple on pizza.

Welcome!

Pulpstar

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky confirming split in EU leaders

It only needs one hold out - and Parliament is working Saturday and Sunday to get this over the line for the 31st....

Or No Deal.

Johnson does not want No Deal. It would wreck his premiership and the Tory Party for years to come.

I would call his bluff. I know Letwin and others are terrified of No Deal but I would leave it in Johnson's hands. If it came to the crunch, he'd either have to ask for another extension or revoke or go over the cliff. I don't care which.

I think both Corbyn and Johnson are prepared to go there. But enough Labour MPs probably will join the Gov't on 3rd reading if push and shove come with Macron telling us "c'est finalement"

SandyRentool

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Welcome!

Sinclair or Woodward?

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Big_G_NorthWales

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

No and welcome

MarqueeMark

SunnyJim said:

The Conservatives may, or may not, get a majority at the next election.

I don't know.

What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.

The political life expectancy of which will be measured in months, if not weeks.

I think the half life of such a coalition would rival that of Meitnerium*. First Cabinet meeting, the SNP goes straight to any other business. "Now, about our leaving the UK...we don't really need another referendum, do we?"

*8 seconds

rcs1000

Just on the US election, Biden's odds have really come in in the last 48 hours on the back of a couple of polls showing his lead increasing.

What's interesting, though, is mostly that Warren has dropped back, not that Biden's vote share has increased. (Biden, generally seems to be holding in the high 20s.)

Take YouGov. In their last national poll (Oct 15), Warren was on 28% and Biden on 25%.

Their latest poll (Oct 22), sees Warren drop back to 21%, and Biden slip one to 24%.

This pattern is seen across multiple pollsters. Looking just at the last week's polls, HarrisX has Warren on 19%, Emerson has her on 21% and CNN also has her on 19%. This is quite a drop for a candidate who was pushing 30% just a few weeks ago.

Drutt

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Hillary:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

In 2016, Hillary owned the DNC. She locked up the superdelegates. Her people were in positions of control throughout the party.

Now, they're all gone.

She is the woman who lost to Donald Trump. She is aged and increasingly infirm, and wouldn't want to put herself through a bruising election campaign again. She's hated by a substantial minority in the Democratic Party. She has no organisation in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has no money.

She would get null delegates in Iowa. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Anyone who is backing her - even at 80-1 - is throwing their money down the toilet.

Does take two to make a market, though.

I think some people are assuming that because she fought Obama in 2008, and lost, and fought Trump in 2016, and lost, she’s a bit obsessed by it, crazy and arrogant enough to want to run again and, y’know, third time lucky and all that.

Even if she wanted to run again, which she doesn't, she'd get slaughtered in the Primaries.

She's not new and shiny (Buttigieg) or untainted by defeat to Trump (Biden) or in tune with party activists (Warren and Sanders).

She's a scandal ridden old lady with appalling negatives, who can't campaign to save her life, and who no longer has any sway in the Democratic Party.

Look at who gets invited to DNC leadership events. Five years ago, Hillary was the star speaker. Now she's forgotten. There are new relationships in place. Nowadays Cory Booker and Mitch Landrieu are the guys who get invited. She's a nobody in the Democratic Party, a nonperson who's existence has been erased.

Those who put money on her might as well take the cash, douse it in petrol and burn it. The money would then at least provide something useful (heat, light and moderate entertainment).

How long until that market settles? Even if it's as soon as Iowa then 80-1 lay is no profit when adjusted for inflation

rcs1000

SandyRentool said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Welcome!

Sinclair or Woodward?

He's too polite to be Sinclair.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Hillary:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

In 2016, Hillary owned the DNC. She locked up the superdelegates. Her people were in positions of control throughout the party.

Now, they're all gone.

She is the woman who lost to Donald Trump. She is aged and increasingly infirm, and wouldn't want to put herself through a bruising election campaign again. She's hated by a substantial minority in the Democratic Party. She has no organisation in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has no money.

She would get null delegates in Iowa. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Anyone who is backing her - even at 80-1 - is throwing their money down the toilet.

Does take two to make a market, though.

I think some people are assuming that because she fought Obama in 2008, and lost, and fought Trump in 2016, and lost, she’s a bit obsessed by it, crazy and arrogant enough to want to run again and, y’know, third time lucky and all that.

Even if she wanted to run again, which she doesn't, she'd get slaughtered in the Primaries.

She's not new and shiny (Buttigieg) or untainted by defeat to Trump (Biden) or in tune with party activists (Warren and Sanders).

She's a scandal ridden old lady with appalling negatives, who can't campaign to save her life, and who no longer has any sway in the Democratic Party.

Look at who gets invited to DNC leadership events. Five years ago, Hillary was the star speaker. Now she's forgotten. There are new relationships in place. Nowadays Cory Booker and Mitch Landrieu are the guys who get invited. She's a nobody in the Democratic Party, a nonperson who's existence has been erased.

Those who put money on her might as well take the cash, douse it in petrol and burn it. The money would then at least provide something useful (heat, light and moderate entertainment).

Yeah, but apart from that she’s got a half-decent chance, right?

nichomar

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

MarqueeMark

SandyRentool said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Welcome!

Sinclair or Woodward?

Or Jones. With his experience as the chairman of the Disasters Emergency Committee, that might be handy!

sirclive

SandyRentool said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Welcome!

Sinclair or Woodward?

Apparently i'm a Woodward clone

nichomar

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky confirming split in EU leaders

It only needs one hold out - and Parliament is working Saturday and Sunday to get this over the line for the 31st....

Or No Deal.

Johnson does not want No Deal. It would wreck his premiership and the Tory Party for years to come.

I would call his bluff. I know Letwin and others are terrified of No Deal but I would leave it in Johnson's hands. If it came to the crunch, he'd either have to ask for another extension or revoke or go over the cliff. I don't care which.

I think both Corbyn and Johnson are prepared to go there. But enough Labour MPs probably will join the Gov't on 3rd reading if push and shove come with Macron telling us "c'est finalement"

He won’t, they wont

Mysticrose

What a brilliant thread, Alastair.

kle4

TudorRose said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Yes, but don't worry, we all suffer from it on here! Welcome.

Not me, I'm cool, unlike you lot.

Now where did I put down my hard copy of Erskine May...

rcs1000

Drutt said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Hillary:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

In 2016, Hillary owned the DNC. She locked up the superdelegates. Her people were in positions of control throughout the party.

Now, they're all gone.

She is the woman who lost to Donald Trump. She is aged and increasingly infirm, and wouldn't want to put herself through a bruising election campaign again. She's hated by a substantial minority in the Democratic Party. She has no organisation in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has no money.

She would get null delegates in Iowa. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Anyone who is backing her - even at 80-1 - is throwing their money down the toilet.

Does take two to make a market, though.

I think some people are assuming that because she fought Obama in 2008, and lost, and fought Trump in 2016, and lost, she’s a bit obsessed by it, crazy and arrogant enough to want to run again and, y’know, third time lucky and all that.

Even if she wanted to run again, which she doesn't, she'd get slaughtered in the Primaries.

She's not new and shiny (Buttigieg) or untainted by defeat to Trump (Biden) or in tune with party activists (Warren and Sanders).

She's a scandal ridden old lady with appalling negatives, who can't campaign to save her life, and who no longer has any sway in the Democratic Party.

Look at who gets invited to DNC leadership events. Five years ago, Hillary was the star speaker. Now she's forgotten. There are new relationships in place. Nowadays Cory Booker and Mitch Landrieu are the guys who get invited. She's a nobody in the Democratic Party, a nonperson who's existence has been erased.

Those who put money on her might as well take the cash, douse it in petrol and burn it. The money would then at least provide something useful (heat, light and moderate entertainment).

How long until that market settles? Even if it's as soon as Iowa then 80-1 lay is no profit when adjusted for inflation

She's currently 15 on Betfair. If she goes to 500 after Iowa and NH (and you hedge then), then you have locked your money up for less than three months.

MarqueeMark

An interesting advance in quantum computing:

"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993

SandyRentool

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

MarqueeMark

nichomar said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

Big_G has been There and Back Again.....

SandyRentool

kle4 said:

TudorRose said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Yes, but don't worry, we all suffer from it on here! Welcome.

Not me, I'm cool, unlike you lot.

Now where did I put down my hard copy of Erskine May...

Hidden under your copy of Leviathan?

ozymandias

MarqueeMark said:

An interesting advance in quantum computing:

"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993

Put in charge of Brexit maybe?

nichomar

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

Big_G has been There and Back Again.....

Did I name names?😀

kle4

SandyRentool said:

kle4 said:

TudorRose said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Yes, but don't worry, we all suffer from it on here! Welcome.

Not me, I'm cool, unlike you lot.

Now where did I put down my hard copy of Erskine May...

Hidden under your copy of Leviathan?

Certainly not (in all seriousness I'm surprised I don't own a copy of that given how many books on that period I have). I've checked the drawer - it was actually next to my PS4 Uncharted collection, which takes down any pretence of intellectualism

nichomar

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

Big_G has been There and Back Again.....

..

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

An interesting advance in quantum computing:

"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993

In classical computers, the unit of information is called a "bit" and can have a value of either 1 or 0. But its equivalent in a quantum system - the qubit (quantum bit) - can be both 1 and 0 at the same time.

Sounds a lot like many MPs....claiming being for Brexit, but at the same time always against it.

sirclive

An appropriate lesson required in the Law of Unintended Consequences.

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/electric-cars-green-licence-plate-environment-grant-shapps-tesla-a9166441.html

Mysticrose

SunnyJim said:

What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.

You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.

Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.

Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:

Lewis Goodall
Tom Newton Dunn
Beth Rigby
Sam Coates Sky
Robert Peston
Laura Kunesberg

HYUFD

Ruth Davidson takes a new job in the City with Tulchan PR

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ruth-davidson-interview-lots-of-people-have-second-acts-as-she-takes-city-job-at-tulchan-pr-a4268651.html

solarflare

*Are* the DUP so implacable?

They're voting with the Government on the Queen's Speech tomorrow, apparently. Or so I read from one of the usual Twitter journos.

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

Ruth Davidson takes a new job in the City with Tulchan PR

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ruth-davidson-interview-lots-of-people-have-second-acts-as-she-takes-city-job-at-tulchan-pr-a4268651.html

She will be paid £50,000 for 24 days’ work a year. The connection here is Andrew Feldman, the Tory fundraiser and Tulchan’s managing partner.

Its not what you know...

nichomar

I can just imagine the bull in the picture saying as he eyes up Johnson ‘and they call my shit bull’

Casino_Royale

On topic, I think the DUP secretly yearn to be “betrayed”.

It’s what they get off on, and what gives their life meaning, so they’ll subconsciously be loving this.

Artist

There's certainly a wide range of results after the election where the House of Commons will struggle to form any sort of functioning government. The Tories narrowly missing out a majority possibly being the worst. There would probably have to be another election with new Tory and Labour leaders in that circumstance.

Casino_Royale

solarflare said:

*Are* the DUP so implacable?

They're voting with the Government on the Queen's Speech tomorrow, apparently. Or so I read from one of the usual Twitter journos.

The Deal isn’t actually that bad. And remember they are still fully in the UK and part of the UK’s future trade deals, so can get rebates on tariffs accordingly to benefit.

What the UK Government has done a very poor job of is to explain how intra-UK trade across the Irish Sea will be as frictionless as possible.

Foxy

blueblue said:

And what future do the DUP have if they make themselves permanent political enemies of the Conservative Party? If they're going to make themselves indistinguishable from Labour MPs, then that extra 12 billion a year that NI gets would make for some pretty tasty tax cuts for Middle England...

No one could accuse the DUP of lack of willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces. In this they clearly display their suitability to Brexit Britain.

Northstar

solarflare said:

*Are* the DUP so implacable?

They're voting with the Government on the Queen's Speech tomorrow, apparently. Or so I read from one of the usual Twitter journos.

A reverse ferret so rapid it renders the thread header obsolete same day? Remarkable if true!

viewcode

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Ruth Davidson takes a new job in the City with Tulchan PR

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ruth-davidson-interview-lots-of-people-have-second-acts-as-she-takes-city-job-at-tulchan-pr-a4268651.html

She will be paid £50,000 for 24 days’ work a year. The connection here is Andrew Feldman, the Tory fundraiser and Tulchan’s managing partner.

Its not what you know...

Tough interview, I bet...

ydoethur

Alistair;

I normally love your thread headers.

But I cannot forgive you for a mental image of Johnson’s trousers round his ankles.

Big_G_NorthWales

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

PeterMannion

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

I think a deep loathing for virtually all pollies is rather OTT (and v sad)

But welcome, nevertheless

Harris_Tweed

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

Big_G_NorthWales

nichomar said:

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

Big_G has been There and Back Again.....

Did I name names?😀

You didn't need to and I took it well

Theuniondivvie

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Ruth Davidson takes a new job in the City with Tulchan PR

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ruth-davidson-interview-lots-of-people-have-second-acts-as-she-takes-city-job-at-tulchan-pr-a4268651.html

She will be paid £50,000 for 24 days’ work a year. The connection here is Andrew Feldman, the Tory fundraiser and Tulchan’s managing partner.

Its not what you know...

Tough interview, I bet...

'Can you just describe what someone as marvellous as you would bring to the company?'

Harris_Tweed

Mysticrose said:

SunnyJim said:

What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.

You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.

Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.

Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:

Lewis Goodall
Tom Newton Dunn
Beth Rigby
Sam Coates Sky
Robert Peston
Laura Kunesberg

These and many more for a slightly broader mix are all featured on Tim Shipman's excellent Pol Journos twitter list: https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/lists/political-journalists?lang=en

HYUFD

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

viewcode

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

An interesting advance in quantum computing:

"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993

In classical computers, the unit of information is called a "bit" and can have a value of either 1 or 0. But its equivalent in a quantum system - the qubit (quantum bit) - can be both 1 and 0 at the same time.

Sounds a lot like many MPs....claiming being for Brexit, but at the same time always against it.

Indeed. Quantum superposition is a great way to solve problems. I suggest we lock each MP into a small airtight box, then leave them there for a couple of months. Then we open each box. If they are still alive we extend, if not we have a fresh election. I call this "Schroedinger's MPs"

Of course we could just never open the box, thereby leaving the question irresolvable. That would work too.

HYUFD

On topic, the only way for the Tories to get the Boris Deal through after the next general election is with an overall majority.

If it is another hung parliament and the DUP or the Brexit Party hold the balance of power the Tories could still stay in power with No Deal (with anti No Deal Tory MPs deselected and replaced by pro Brexit Deal or No Deal candidates) but the EU will not agree a Deal Nigel Farage or Arlene Foster would accept

bigjohnowls

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

kle4

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, I think the DUP secretly yearn to be “betrayed”.

It’s what they get off on, and what gives their life meaning, so they’ll subconsciously be loving this.

Yep. For people who claim to love the Union so much they don't seem to like to do much but moan all the time.

Which is not to say they cannot have legitimate grievances, but they are so self righteous and constantly posturing that even when they are both sincere and genuinely the aggrieved party, it comes across as an act. I'm not sure it is even subconscious that they'll love this, they couldn't wait to go from 0 to 11 on the screams of betrayal.

bigjohnowls

On Topic What if they fall short? Then they have rather a big problem. Who might they form a coalition with?

Tory Swinson comes to his aid of course

Stocky

viewcode says: "I suggest we lock each MP into a small airtight box, then leave them there for a couple of months. Then we open each box. If they are still alive we extend, if not we have a fresh election. I call this "Schroedinger's MPs"

Of course we could just never open the box, thereby leaving the question irresolvable. That would work too."

We could alternatively send them on Golgafrincham Ark B.

That`s an obscure reference to something.

Sorry, I`ve had a few beers.

kle4

Northstar said:

solarflare said:

*Are* the DUP so implacable?

They're voting with the Government on the Queen's Speech tomorrow, apparently. Or so I read from one of the usual Twitter journos.

A reverse ferret so rapid it renders the thread header obsolete same day? Remarkable if true!

Until such time as the WAIB looks like passing, there may be no benefit to the DUP in bringing down the government, as they may think voting down the QS will do. Because if there's an election the Tories win then the WAIB will pass. Better, perhaps, to try the limbo strategy whereby Boris is not given an election, but the DUP won't help him pass anything either.

ydoethur

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

The signs were all there that he would end up withdrawing too late.

nichomar

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

His letter to Wollaston is actually illegible in his own hand writing, so it’s impossible to discern why.

MarqueeMark

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

Harris_Tweed

SunnyJim said:

What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.

The political life expectancy of which will be measured in months, if not weeks.

I'm not sure it's even possible for him to be in charge of such a collection.

I appreciate politicians can change their spots in the hours and days after close of polls, but the LDs have been pretty clear about not doing business with Corbyn, and I suspect will have an attractive pile of seats post-election.

If Lab+SNP(only) = overall majority, that could happen. But I don't think Corbyn's a natural collaborator, and concessions on independence could cost him among unionists who lend a vote to Lab.

If the LibDems were needed to make up the numbers, I think Corbyn would have to choose between stepping down or minority government (with a permanent LD gun at his head any time he tried to nationalise Sainsbury's or whatever).

nichomar

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

Big_G has been There and Back Again.....

Did I name names?😀

You didn't need to and I took it well

Your not the only one but the others are more shy about it

Harris_Tweed

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

His letter to Wollaston is actually illegible in his own hand writing, so it’s impossible to discern why.

too messy; didn't read. Summary: Can't be arsed.

Big_G_NorthWales

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

The most fascinating part of PB I find are those who embark on real transformational journeys with their political views and the party they used to support and those that are really only ever playing at it.

Big_G has been There and Back Again.....

Did I name names?😀

You didn't need to and I took it well

Your not the only one but the others are more shy about it

Why would I be shy

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

MarqueeMark

Stocky said:

viewcode says: "I suggest we lock each MP into a small airtight box, then leave them there for a couple of months. Then we open each box. If they are still alive we extend, if not we have a fresh election. I call this "Schroedinger's MPs"

Of course we could just never open the box, thereby leaving the question irresolvable. That would work too."

We could alternatively send them on Golgafrincham Ark B.

That's an obscure reference to something.

Sorry, I`ve had a few beers.

Don't worry, no more than 93.45% of pb.com know the Ark B reference...

Alistair

SandyRentool said:

sirclive said:

May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute.
Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating.
Is there something wrong with me?

Welcome!

Sinclair or Woodward?

There is only one Sir Clive and it is not Woodward.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

If so, Brexit will get rammed through....

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

If so, Brexit will get rammed through....

If ewe say so.

Harris_Tweed

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.

MarqueeMark

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

Presumably, he's got more important peole to talk to. You know, those who can actually get their shit together about Brexit....

anothernick

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

If he can't face MPs how will he deal with the scrutiny that he will come under in an election campaign?

nichomar

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

How do they describe a leisure center in Cardiff?

bigjohnowls

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

If so, Brexit will get rammed through....

Ewe have to be joking

kle4

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

MPs don't trust him, won't believe his answers and as a majority won't pass his deal anyway, what does it matter if it goes down badly with them? It's petty and childish again, but the effect seems negligible.

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

His letter to Wollaston is actually illegible in his own hand writing, so it’s impossible to discern why.

Dear Sarah. I promised that I will come to the Liaison Committe and I will keep that promise but I am afraid I must now focus on delivering Brexit in these difficult circumstances in which we find ourselves. I believe I would be of greater value if I could postpone to a fixed date nearer 5 or 6 months after I became PM, so that my appearence took place after roughly the same period in office as Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Theresa May. I do hope you will understand. Best wishes as ever, Boris.

He thinks they are being mean by wanting him there earlier than Brown, Cameron and May went, plus Brexit.

ydoethur

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

How do they describe a leisure center in Cardiff?

Wool you be thinking something offensive?

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

If so, Brexit will get rammed through....

If ewe say so.

Hmmm. Wether to continue these puns.....

rural_voter

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

The 'One Nation strand' haven't been in charge for nearly 40 years. That bloody woman, ahem, sorry, 'The Blessed Margaret', got rid of them steadily in the 1980s and they've never recovered. After she left a decent chap called John Major briefly took over & Heseltine was Deputy PM but since then the 'Tory' party has moved ever further right.

Depending on age, people like Clarke, Burt, Grieve, Lidington, Stewart, Gauke, Sandbach, Greening, maybe Hammond P and S are either retiring or leaving the party they called 'home'. Grieve, Gauke and Clarke should on sheer merit be offered peerages if they want one, maybe Hammond P but they probably aren't on speaking terms with any of the cabinet which seems a prerequisite in a patronage-based system.

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

If so, Brexit will get rammed through....

If ewe say so.

Hmmm. Wether to continue these puns.....

We’ve only seen the tup of the iceberg.

Banterman

rural_voter said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

The 'One Nation strand' haven't been in charge for nearly 40 years. That bloody woman, ahem, sorry, 'The Blessed Margaret', got rid of them steadily in the 1980s and they've never recovered. After she left a decent chap called John Major briefly took over & Heseltine was Deputy PM but since then the 'Tory' party has moved ever further right.

Depending on age, people like Clarke, Burt, Grieve, Lidington, Stewart, Gauke, Sandbach, Greening, maybe Hammond P and S are either retiring or leaving the party they called 'home'. Grieve, Gauke and Clarke should on sheer merit be offered peerages if they want one, maybe Hammond P but they probably aren't on speaking terms with any of the cabinet which seems a prerequisite in a patronage-based system.

All about as likely as Bercow getting anything.

Big_G_NorthWales

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

Presumably, he's got more important peole to talk to. You know, those who can actually get their shit together about Brexit....

The committees cannot expect Boris to turn up when he is in the middle of the biggest crisis since the 1950's

And Wollaston has some gall in view of her switching opinions and parties. She is hardly a neutral observer

nichomar

ydoethur said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

How do they describe a leisure center in Cardiff?

Wool you be thinking something offensive?

Not at all only to the lamp post

justin124

I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.

nichomar

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?

If so, Brexit will get rammed through....

If ewe say so.

Hmmm. Wether to continue these puns.....

We’ve only seen the tup of the iceberg.

But he may get a dip in the polls

ozymandias

anothernick said:

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

If he can't face MPs how will he deal with the scrutiny that he will come under in an election campaign?

True. If only Johnson had ran a successful campaign, maybe ran two, and won them for a major political post before now. He obviously has never run personally for political office before so may be unused to campaigning on his own.

TudorRose

kle4 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

MPs don't trust him, won't believe his answers and as a majority won't pass his deal anyway, what does it matter if it goes down badly with them? It's petty and childish again, but the effect seems negligible.

nichomar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
41m
PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs

Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids

His letter to Wollaston is actually illegible in his own hand writing, so it’s impossible to discern why.

Dear Sarah. I promised that I will come to the Liaison Committe and I will keep that promise but I am afraid I must now focus on delivering Brexit in these difficult circumstances in which we find ourselves. I believe I would be of greater value if I could postpone to a fixed date nearer 5 or 6 months after I became PM, so that my appearence took place after roughly the same period in office as Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Theresa May. I do hope you will understand. Best wishes as ever, Boris.

He thinks they are being mean by wanting him there earlier than Brown, Cameron and May went, plus Brexit.

He was quite polite. He could have just written; Dear Sarah, I will present myself for accountability to you when you do the same for your constituents. See you later, BoJo.

kle4

justin124 said:

I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.

But that means we'll need another extension as Boris probably won't be able to get his WAIB through in time even if he wins.

DavidL

MarqueeMark said:

An interesting advance in quantum computing:

"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50154993

Yes, now about those supposedly unbreakable encryption devices...

nichomar

Banterman said:

rural_voter said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

The 'One Nation strand' haven't been in charge for nearly 40 years. That bloody woman, ahem, sorry, 'The Blessed Margaret', got rid of them steadily in the 1980s and they've never recovered. After she left a decent chap called John Major briefly took over & Heseltine was Deputy PM but since then the 'Tory' party has moved ever further right.

Depending on age, people like Clarke, Burt, Grieve, Lidington, Stewart, Gauke, Sandbach, Greening, maybe Hammond P and S are either retiring or leaving the party they called 'home'. Grieve, Gauke and Clarke should on sheer merit be offered peerages if they want one, maybe Hammond P but they probably aren't on speaking terms with any of the cabinet which seems a prerequisite in a patronage-based system.

All about as likely as Bercow getting anything.

There is a space for a new garter Knight.

Big_G_NorthWales

rural_voter said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and have a simple message in so far as we leave the EU, avoiding a no deal, within weeks of winning

I know there are concerns over no deal at the end of transistion but just being out and moving on to a new chapter is likely to win the day

And Boris for all his childish, petulant and untruths does seem to have moved up through the gears as evidenced at PMQ's today

And I have rejoined the party now that those rebels who voted for the programme motion will have the whip restored. Those who didn't I expect it is the end of the road for them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

The 'One Nation strand' haven't been in charge for nearly 40 years. That bloody woman, ahem, sorry, 'The Blessed Margaret', got rid of them steadily in the 1980s and they've never recovered. After she left a decent chap called John Major briefly took over & Heseltine was Deputy PM but since then the 'Tory' party has moved ever further right.

Depending on age, people like Clarke, Burt, Grieve, Lidington, Stewart, Gauke, Sandbach, Greening, maybe Hammond P and S are either retiring or leaving the party they called 'home'. Grieve, Gauke and Clarke should on sheer merit be offered peerages if they want one, maybe Hammond P but they probably aren't on speaking terms with any of the cabinet which seems a prerequisite in a patronage-based system.

I expect Clarke will but Grieve is very unlikely

With respect I am not too worried about your views on my political journeys

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.

Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.

His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.

However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.

I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.

The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.

I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.

sirclive

Harris_Tweed said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Harris_Tweed said:

I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.

The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.

TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.

The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority

Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.

The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.

IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.

HYUFD

rural_voter said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Fair and reasoned header. They can do it, but it is not as easy as they currently expect.

Bit like passing the WAIB I suppose, which despite saying they had the numbers for they've decided to skip it for now because it would be harder than they like.

Agreed and this conservative has consisently urged caution on the party obtaining a majority, far less a landslide as others have

However, they are pretty much united now and them

Good grief. The Tory Party is still in the hands of the same lying fornicator as when you left. Still being operated by the same Cumstain who, from what I can ascertain, shares very few of your values.

I thought you would have waited until the One Nation strand were back in charge.

I hope you don't regret jumping back on board.

I won't.

The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe

The 'One Nation strand' haven't been in charge for nearly 40 years. That bloody woman, ahem, sorry, 'The Blessed Margaret', got rid of them steadily in the 1980s and they've never recovered. After she left a decent chap called John Major briefly took over & Heseltine was Deputy PM but since then the 'Tory' party has moved ever further right.

Depending on age, people like Clarke, Burt, Grieve, Lidington, Stewart, Gauke, Sandbach, Greening, maybe Hammond P and S are either retiring or leaving the party they called 'home'. Grieve, Gauke and Clarke should on sheer merit be offered peerages if they want one, maybe Hammond P but they probably aren't on speaking terms with any of the cabinet which seems a prerequisite in a patronage-based system.

'One Nation' was originally coined by Disraeli, a staunch supporter of the British Empire and imperialism even if a domestic reformer and spender at home. Boris in many ways resembles Disraeli, charismatic and colourful, find of flowery language and pro Brexit and pro global Britain but hardly a fiscal conservative either but someone who believes in government action.

You could equally say Labour have not elected a centrist leader since Tony Blair

rpjs

MarqueeMark said:

Stocky said:

viewcode says: "I suggest we lock each MP into a small airtight box, then leave them there for a couple of months. Then we open each box. If they are still alive we extend, if not we have a fresh election. I call this "Schroedinger's MPs"

Of course we could just never open the box, thereby leaving the question irresolvable. That would work too."

We could alternatively send them on Golgafrincham Ark B.

That's an obscure reference to something.

Sorry, I`ve had a few beers.

Don't worry, no more than 93.45% of pb.com know the Ark B reference...

Never forget that the Golgafrinchamers that didn't go on Ark B were wiped out by a virulent plague contracted from an unsanitized telephone.