Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Which suggests they’ll agree to the 31st January with some flexibility as Johnson is then legally obliged to accept that .
The Brexit deadlock and delay from us and the EU can often come down to 'which option is easiest?' I will be astonished if they don't go with the date our law requested and which takes away any further arguing over if it will be accepted or not.
I agree with you but that needs Macron to climb down. Will he is the question
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Which suggests they’ll agree to the 31st January with some flexibility as Johnson is then legally obliged to accept that .
The Brexit deadlock and delay from us and the EU can often come down to 'which option is easiest?' I will be astonished if they don't go with the date our law requested and which takes away any further arguing over if it will be accepted or not.
I agree with you but that needs Macron to climb down. Will he is the question
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.
You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.
Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.
Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:
Lewis Goodall Tom Newton Dunn Beth Rigby Sam Coates Sky Robert Peston Laura Kunesberg
Is Lewis Goodall meant to be a straight news person or a commentator or something in between ? Genuine Q as I don't get Sky. I find his tweets interesting, but am always confused as to whether he is reporting or giving his own views.
I watch sky news most of the time but find Steven Dixon the most biased presenter they have he is appalling and interviews with that bias blatantly visible.
I recall him from a few years ago but not seen him recently. What is the nature of his bias?
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
I'd expect the Tories to win back Warwick and Leamington on a promise to scrap HS2. Of course, they might anyway, helped by a drift from Labour to LD ... but it's a strong Remain seat that went Labour in 2017.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
They can move very fast when they feel they need to. What's the alternative to not agreeing to December 5th in 4 days? Agreeing to do something useful and not have a GE? Fat chance.
You need two thirds to get to 5 December. To do that Jeremy Corbyn would need to split his party. First, they’re right. And secondly, why wouldn’t he wait in such circumstances?
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
That’s the most pressing problem and the reason a new railway is desperately needed, although there are other reasons why it is intended to be high speed.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
Given Boris's reported insecurity about things like university results, I hope he gets 329 seats then.
It’s a stupid strategy. On that subject, has there ever been any conclusive ruling on a US President’s immunity? I know it’s certainly been discussed since the days of Nixon, but it seems to be a foggy area constitutionally. I guess the impeachment clause is used to say that the constitution provides a different way to hold a president to account, and therefore in theory at least that could demonstrate there wasn’t an intention for a president to be prosecuted whilst in office.
It's really not foggy. There is nothing in the constitution that makes a President immune from state prosecution. In fact Grant was arrested (for dangerous driving).
I'd expect the Tories to win back Warwick and Leamington on a promise to scrap HS2. Of course, they might anyway, helped by a drift from Labour to LD ... but it's a strong Remain seat that went Labour in 2017.
Yes, and lose Stoke on Trent South, Tamworth and possibly Cannock.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
The question Alastair is, will Macron climb down
He will. No deal Brexit isn’t in France’s interests, he’ll get the need for Parliamentary scrutiny and having made his point he’ll give way.
No deal Brexit could happen in various ways but that would be about the stupidest.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
I know that , the EU ambassadors are there to basically agree through their bosses . Macron is away at the moment in Reunion which complicates matters .
Purely from a media point , it’s easier to agree the 3 month request whilst not being at a summit .
Those summits have a lot of coverage . I really don’t think 27 EU leaders are in the mood to change their plans to turn up to a summit to just deal with an extension request .
Nor do I which makes the 31st January an easier option.
It is rumoured it is not just Macron but other leaders who are really not in the consensus
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
They can move very fast when they feel they need to. What's the alternative to not agreeing to December 5th in 4 days? Agreeing to do something useful and not have a GE? Fat chance.
You need two thirds to get to 5 December. To do that Jeremy Corbyn would need to split his party. First, they’re right. And secondly, why wouldn’t he wait in such circumstances?
Fair point. I'm simply amazed they keep getting so close to a GE and then not doing it. But if second referendum is also apparently a no go now, and we aren't getting a 2019 GE, what the heck are they planning to do for the next 3 months when Boris still doesn't have a majority for his legislation, since if he did he'd pass it already?
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Which suggests they’ll agree to the 31st January with some flexibility as Johnson is then legally obliged to accept that .
The Brexit deadlock and delay from us and the EU can often come down to 'which option is easiest?' I will be astonished if they don't go with the date our law requested and which takes away any further arguing over if it will be accepted or not.
I agree with you but that needs Macron to climb down. Will he is the question
It’s easier to climb down when not at the summit . I think they’re trying to find a form of words to put in the extension which gives a suggestion as to what the extension might be used for without looking too bossy.
Macron really only wants a longer extension if there’s likely to be an election.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
Given Boris's reported insecurity about things like university results, I hope he gets 329 seats then.
If he did he would be in a vastly stronger position than he is now with a much more united Conservative Party who could be relied upon to follow the whip. Nearly all of those who have given him such heartache in the last few weeks would be gone.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong. The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
But your ABDPJohnson is an ill-mannered oaf, who does not even have the courtesy to sign his own letters. Why should the other heads of government give up good time for the likes of him?
Are you really trying to suggest his lack of signing of the extension request letter has any relevance at all to EU leaders? His ill manners are pretty obvious, but I'm to believe hard nosed fellow leaders and hardened diplomatic animals will alter their intended behaviour one iota because he lacked the 'courtesy' to sign his own letters? We'd best hope he never emails anyone, the lack of courtesy from no signature would drive them mad!
Just saying that Mr Wales, our famous Con-Lib Dem wobbler, feels offended on Johnson`s behalf, that the reply is due to be decided at ambassadorial level, rather than by heads of government. That is nowhere nearly as offensive as Johnson`s original act.
People go to France and see the TGV and think "Wow, that's great, why can't we have something like that?", and then look at HS2 and go "What a waste of money!"
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
But your ABDPJohnson is an ill-mannered oaf, who does not even have the courtesy to sign his own letters. Why should the other heads of government give up good time for the likes of him?
Boris was childish but your attitude to the EU leaders is equally childish
This decision is at the heart of the EU and UKs future and of course they are going to act responsibly, if not for any other reason than their own intersts
People go to France and see the TGV and think "Wow, that's great, why can't we have something like that?", and then look at HS2 and go "What a waste of money!"
I'm not sure but isn't the TGV heavily subsidised and loss-making?
I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.
Yes, the campaign wouldn't be able to properly start until the second week of January. So probably even later — the middle of February. You can't run an election campaign between Christmas and the New Year.
1973-74 was considered a national emergency, after OPEC and the miners together caused a severe energy shortage. But we didn't have an election until 28th Feb. = roughly when the light returns (i.e. day length is similar to mid October).
Brex(sh)it is totally self-inflicted. As such, to try to force voters with winter blues - 30% reportedly suffer - to go to a polling station is cruel and unusual punishment.
I still can't quite get over how either side in recent weeks has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
One month ago, on the 24th September, Lady Hale delivered the Supreme Court's damming verdict on prorogation. In the days that immediately followed, Johnson was on the ropes. Had the Opposition of got their act together they would probably have won a VONC and booted Johnson from office. They chose instead to dangle him over the precipice and have some fun at his expense.
Fools: because Johnson achieved the highly improbable feat of securing a Brexit deal. He returned triumphant, the right wing press in adoration and awe and suddenly the country, indeed Europe, was genuflecting before him. Until that nice Mr Oliver Letwin came up with the bright idea of an amendment which put an enormous spanner in the works. Still, all might not have been lost. Even up until two days ago, Johnson still had it in the bag. His deal was close to being voted through. All he needed to do was swallow a little pride over his self-imposed deadline, seek a technical extension and let the Opposition have a few amendments, some of which would never have succeeded anyway.
But, no. Of course not. Compromise and magnanimity are not words that have made it onto Johnson's otherwise large lexicon. He couldn't bring himself graciously to let the deadline slip by a couple of weeks, nor to let scrutiny take place in Parliament. He had a tantrum instead (how Trump-esque).
Fool. He is now overseeing the singularly bizarre phenomenon of Jeremy Corbyn being the one pushing for Brexit to get done with the deal that, erm, Boris Johnson negotiated, whilst Johnson appears to be the one delaying Brexit.
You cannot make this up.
Harold Wilson once said "A week is a long-time in politics". The sort of problem Brexit creates is going to seem like it lasts a life-time. Things will shift one way and then the other, we currently have stalemate. How long this can go on I don't know. The obvious last date is June or July 2022...
What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.
You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.
Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.
Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:
Lewis Goodall Tom Newton Dunn Beth Rigby Sam Coates Sky Robert Peston Laura Kunesberg
Is Lewis Goodall meant to be a straight news person or a commentator or something in between ? Genuine Q as I don't get Sky. I find his tweets interesting, but am always confused as to whether he is reporting or giving his own views.
I watch sky news most of the time but find Steven Dixon the most biased presenter they have he is appalling and interviews with that bias blatantly visible.
I recall him from a few years ago but not seen him recently. What is the nature of his bias?
Obviously it’s from my own perspective which to be honest we all seem to have started looking at things but he is an ardent ‘referendum must be respected leaver’ but sky does on the whole have a range of views embedded in their presenters. I find it amusing when Adam tries to play the balanced interviewer but it doesn’t really work. We would be better served if interviewers called out lies and falsehoods in interviews from which ever side but that requires too much effort and knowledge.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
Given Boris's reported insecurity about things like university results, I hope he gets 329 seats then.
If he did he would be in a vastly stronger position than he is now with a much more united Conservative Party who could be relied upon to follow the whip. Nearly all of those who have given him such heartache in the last few weeks would be gone.
I was being silly of course, I'd prefer he not be rewarded, but if he must win a majority a small one which is smaller than Cameron's so he can fume about that would be nice.
If the EU are doing the flextension thing, why limit it to 31 Jan?
They must know that we're already looking difficult for an election in December. If it's not December it'll not be early Jan, so unless Boris wins big in a GE then we could have another difficult government situation coming in probably right near the end of Jan anyway, so extend-me-do yet again anyway?
If the EU are doing the flextension thing, why limit it to 31 Jan?
They must know that we're already looking difficult for an election in December. If it's not December it'll not be early Jan, so unless Boris wins big in a GE then we'll have another government coming in probably right near the end of Jan anyway, so extend-me-do yet again anyway?
Yes indeed. Not enough time for a referendum so doesn't keep all options open, so if a GE happens if anyone but Boris wins a longer one will be asked for. But why make waves, we've asked for that date, so we get it.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong. The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
But your ABDPJohnson is an ill-mannered oaf, who does not even have the courtesy to sign his own letters. Why should the other heads of government give up good time for the likes of him?
Are you really trying to suggest his lack of signing of the extension request letter has any relevance at all to EU leaders? His ill manners are pretty obvious, but I'm to believe hard nosed fellow leaders and hardened diplomatic animals will alter their intended behaviour one iota because he lacked the 'courtesy' to sign his own letters? We'd best hope he never emails anyone, the lack of courtesy from no signature would drive them mad!
Just saying that Mr Wales, our famous Con-Lib Dem wobbler, feels offended on Johnson`s behalf, that the reply is due to be decided at ambassadorial level, rather than by heads of government. That is nowhere nearly as offensive as Johnson`s original act.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
Or indeed the margin could increase in the Tories favour during a campaign.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.
+1 - HS2 allows the West Coast Mainline (and the East Coast Mainline south of York) to be used for more local services. The issue is that this was never used as the selling point of the project so it deserves to die for sheer stupidity.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
The Conservatives came very close to getting a majority with a lead of 2% in 2017. A lead of 8% would give them a 3% swing against Labour. More than enough for a majority. 6% would be tighter.
If the EU are doing the flextension thing, why limit it to 31 Jan?
They must know that we're already looking difficult for an election in December. If it's not December it'll not be early Jan, so unless Boris wins big in a GE then we could have another difficult government situation coming in probably right near the end of Jan anyway, so extend-me-do yet again anyway?
The 31st January is the date in Boris letter under the Benn Act
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
Or indeed the margin could increase in the Tories favour during a campaign.
Governments tend to lose ground in campaigns - particularly when they enjoy a clear lead.
More Boris cowardice it would seem...... What a spineless individual.
Having an election "spineless"? Well it's a view I suppose.
While I despise Johnson, I have to confess I find it peculiar that he’s being abused for trying to get an election and Corbyn is being abused for trying to block one.
It’s fine to criticise them for being liars, bullies, retards, populists, cronyists, racists and hypocrites, but this one doesn’t make sense. Either there should be an election, or there shouldn’t. But all people are doing is seeing it through their partisan specs and screaming at the other side for stopping them.
People go to France and see the TGV and think "Wow, that's great, why can't we have something like that?", and then look at HS2 and go "What a waste of money!"
I'm not sure but isn't the TGV heavily subsidised and loss-making?
I think all railways in major European countries are subsidised, but yes more so in France than the UK. But a lot of the benefit of HS2 isn't so much the speed as the extra capacity.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.< ..
+1 - HS2 allows the West Coast Mainline (and the East Coast Mainline south of York) to be used for more local services. The issue is that this was never used as the selling point of the project so it deserves to die for sheer stupidity.
The point has been repeatedly made. It’s just also been repeatedly ignored.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
They can move very fast when they feel they need to. What's the alternative to not agreeing to December 5th in 4 days? Agreeing to do something useful and not have a GE? Fat chance.
You need two thirds to get to 5 December. To do that Jeremy Corbyn would need to split his party. First, they’re right. And secondly, why wouldn’t he wait in such circumstances?
Fair point. I'm simply amazed they keep getting so close to a GE and then not doing it. But if second referendum is also apparently a no go now, and we aren't getting a 2019 GE, what the heck are they planning to do for the next 3 months when Boris still doesn't have a majority for his legislation, since if he did he'd pass it already?
Everyone is hoping to convince others to agree with them so that there is a majority for their preferred option. This is what happens when politics is split in at least three camps. The question is who will compromise first in order to create a majority for a way ahead?
Personally I think we are very close to having enough people to pass a deal - any deal. Johnson may already, just about, have the numbers, and is throwing a bit of a tantrum about not meeting his deadline.
Second referendum supporters will be hoping that Labour Leavers and Tory anti-no-dealers will come around to passing the deal with a confirmatory Remain vs Deal referendum attached.
Corbyn loyalists will be holding out for all anti-no-dealers to install him as Glorious Leader and support him as he negotiates a different deal to put to a referendum.
There are probably other factions. I wonder whether we might have a new one form in favour of resurrecting May's Deal?
It's not that there are any shortage of proposed ways ahead - that's part of the problem. If there were only two sides then one would clearly have won by now and we wouldn't be stuck.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.
It’s difficult to see how you could widen the WCML in any case. Almost all of it is four tracked as far as Crewe (counting the Colwich to Stone line and the Stafford line as one railway) aside from a stretch through Coventry. Anyone trying to widen THAT stretch is certainly in for fun and games...
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
The Conservatives came very close to getting a majority with a lead of 2% in 2017. A lead of 8% would give them a 3% swing against Labour. More than enough for a majority. 6% would be tighter.
But a higher vote for third parties such as the LibDems would increase the vote lead needed. We saw that clearly in 2010 when a 7% Tory lead failed to generate a majority. In 2015 the Tory lead was marginaly smaller - just over 6% - yet they managed a majority due to the LibDem collapse.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.
It’s difficult to see how you could widen the WCML in any case. Almost all of it is four tracked as far as Crewe (counting the Colwich to Stone line and the Stafford line as one railway) aside from a stretch through Coventry. Anyone trying to widen THAT stretch is certainly in for fun and games...
+1 - HS2 allows the West Coast Mainline (and the East Coast Mainline south of York) to be used for more local services. The issue is that this was never used as the selling point of the project so it deserves to die for sheer stupidity.
The point has been repeatedly made. It’s just also been repeatedly ignored.
The story was set with the first news report. Once it became a story about fast none stop trains from Birmingham to London the die was cast.
A working majority is fine and he gets brexit through seeing off no deal
He also has a good domestic policy agenda but the principle reason for supporting the party is to see Corbyn never gets near to power. He makes Boris look a saint and that is something
I completely understand you prefer Johnson (or any other Conservative or even Jo Swinson I would imagine) to Corbyn. I get that.
The prospect of either Johnson or Corbyn with a majority scares me.
Were the LDs to win enough seats to be in the kingmaker position, I certainly could not countenance us supporting Corbyn but nor would I support the Party backing Johnson so it would be on a bill by bill basis in the Commons.
We can all sign up to more spending on the NHS and the Police and tax cuts but that circle can't be easily squared with borrowing back above £40m under Johnson. While he is nowhere near the economic risk Corbyn and McDonnell would be, I don't trust him not to end up borrowing too much and leaving us all one day with a problem.
For all the vitriol he gets from some Conservatives, Hammond didn't do a bad job at the Treasury.
If the EU are doing the flextension thing, why limit it to 31 Jan?
They must know that we're already looking difficult for an election in December. If it's not December it'll not be early Jan, so unless Boris wins big in a GE then we could have another difficult government situation coming in probably right near the end of Jan anyway, so extend-me-do yet again anyway?
The 31st January is the date in Boris letter under the Benn Act
But it’s up to the EU to suggest any date they wish it could be 31/12/20 which would then go back to parliament but 31/1 is most likely.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
Or indeed the margin could increase in the Tories favour during a campaign.
Governments tend to lose ground in campaigns - particularly when they enjoy a clear lead.
Sure, as they did in 2015, 2010, 2005, 1997, 1992, 1987, 1983, October 1974, 1966, 1964, 1959, 1955, 1951...
You do talk some rubbish at times, Justin, even when you’re not sending bizarre and faintly menacing emails to MPs.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.
It’s difficult to see how you could widen the WCML in any case. Almost all of it is four tracked as far as Crewe (counting the Colwich to Stone line and the Stafford line as one railway) aside from a stretch through Coventry. Anyone trying to widen THAT stretch is certainly in for fun and games...
Boris could do it by October 31st.
Boris Johnson on a high speed train? Good plan. Please make sure it’s a one way ticket to somewhere remote and unimportant.
The 15th is only to ratify the deal . Not a take it or leave it offer . A longer extension will be offered if there’s an election .
Of course, it would be the irony of all time if, having negotiated a deal with the EU and achieved a Commons majority of 30 in favour of it, Johnson followed in Theresa May's footsteps - was tempted by poll leads into an election, and then saw it all evaporate during the campaign.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.< ..
What drices me absolutely berserek is the insistence on stopping HS2 in London - rather than running it onto HS1 and out to the Continent. But of course all us provincials are deemed to want to go to London and London only.
A working majority is fine and he gets brexit through seeing off no deal
He also has a good domestic policy agenda but the principle reason for supporting the party is to see Corbyn never gets near to power. He makes Boris look a saint and that is something
I completely understand you prefer Johnson (or any other Conservative or even Jo Swinson I would imagine) to Corbyn. I get that.
The prospect of either Johnson or Corbyn with a majority scares me.
Were the LDs to win enough seats to be in the kingmaker position, I certainly could not countenance us supporting Corbyn but nor would I support the Party backing Johnson so it would be on a bill by bill basis in the Commons.
We can all sign up to more spending on the NHS and the Police and tax cuts but that circle can't be easily squared with borrowing back above £40m under Johnson. While he is nowhere near the economic risk Corbyn and McDonnell would be, I don't trust him not to end up borrowing too much and leaving us all one day with a problem.
For all the vitriol he gets from some Conservatives, Hammond didn't do a bad job at the Treasury.
For all the speculation I do expect the 31st January date to be agreed
If it is not it is down to a Frenchman
Now have we heard that before I wonder
Depends where you see or hear the speculation. The Brexit supporting media manipulates its readers into thinking all sorts of things for instance the Daily Express today or yesterday had the French President vetoing an extension. If you take a step back from much of the media you can really see how they shape people's thinking. It is a form of political socialisation, which ultimately snares the unwitting into believing all sorts of nonsense...
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So
I
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to w 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
Or indeed the margin could increase in the Tories favour during a campaign.
Governments tend to lose ground in campaigns - particularly when they enjoy a clear lead.
The dynamics of the next election will be completely different to the last.
BJ hasn't really had a "government" not in the truest sense of the word. His domestic agenda (and yes he does have one) is probably completely unknown save a few soundbites.
Corbyn is already priced in. His novelty is no longer there. He comes across as a dour, miserable, humourless unsmiling merchant of doom. A couple of weeks of of shuffling around the country in the cold and dark winter days, shouting at ever-shrinking rallies in the rain pledging to nationalise paperclips and sequestrate peoples houses.It won't seem to be the most attractive of things before Christmas.
There'll be no "accidental" leak of the Labour manifesto this time. Hopefully no National Emergencies, or NHS computer hacks, or an imbecilic Tory manifesto with a Leader that turns to stone in front of the average voter. Added to which the Labour manifesto won't be treated like a copy of the Beano this time and it will be, quite rightly, more thoroughly scrutinised by the media,and more importantly attacked by a much more savvy Tory Election machine.
Johnson is a proven campaigner - he won London twice which people seem to always conveniently forget. He's even being criticised on here for campaigning right now (how dare he!). Those that hate him, hate him. Those that like him, tend to love him. Those in the middle see a relatively charming familiar face, a bit vague sometimes, bumbles a bit but overall a good bloke.
Those that hate him are falling into the same trap people like me did in 2017. My hatred of Corbyn blinded me to the evident ability he had to campaign on his difference and novelty. Time and again Anti-Corbynites played the man and not the ball. We underestimated him. I think you're making the same mistake this time.
If nothing else the past few weeks has taught people don't underestimate Johnson or assume you have him where you want him. He is far far too clever for that and has the personality and presence to turn a situation to his advantage very effectively.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
The Conservatives came very close to getting a majority with a lead of 2% in 2017. A lead of 8% would give them a 3% swing against Labour. More than enough for a majority. 6% would be tighter.
But a higher vote for third parties such as the LibDems would increase the vote lead needed. We saw that clearly in 2010 when a 7% Tory lead failed to generate a majority. In 2015 the Tory lead was marginaly smaller - just over 6% - yet they managed a majority due to the LibDem collapse.
That entirely depends on distribution. If remainers, sick of Corbyn's prevarication, vote Lib Dem in Labour held marginals Labour is in trouble. An evenly divided opposition can greatly favour the Tories as it did with Maggie's majorities in the 80s.
The (surely) forthcoming election is more unpredictable than most but Labour risk losing seats to everyone, the Tories, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Question: how many Labour MPs would have to vote for an early election in order to reach the magic 434 figure, assuming that the other parties vote for one (except perhaps the independent Conservatives)?
I make the answer around 80, which isn't that many out of 250.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
Or indeed the margin could increase in the Tories favour during a campaign.
Governments tend to lose ground in campaigns - particularly when they enjoy a clear lead.
Sure, as they did in 2015, 2010, 2005, 1997, 1992, 1987, 1983, October 1974, 1966, 1964, 1959, 1955, 1951...
You do talk some rubbish at times, Justin, even when you’re not sending bizarre and faintly menacing emails to MPs.
You are just exposing your own ignorance with comments like that. The Government lost ground in the election campaigns of 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - both 1974 elections - 1987 - and certainly 2017. Very little change in 1955 or 2005. The polling data is available - should you wish to lower yourself to consult it. To be clear , I am asserting that on Polling Day incumbent Governments fare less well than implied by polls at the time the election was announced. To take the 1959 example - when Macmillan announced the election in the first week of September , there were polls giving the Tories a lead of 7% - 9%. On election day - 8th October - the Tories won by 5%.. Check the data yourself!
I have just been watching footage of Ian Paisley the Elder and Gerry Adams in the same room. Adams was applauding. Not sure the DUP are as implacable as the header suggests. If Boris agrees to bung them another billion or two of public money, their animosity will doubtless melt quickly.
Still, if they facilitate Prime Minister Corbyn, they will deserve everything they get.
317 seats elected a Conservative in 2017 although considerably fewer have one now. The Tories can reasonably expect to regain Buckingham as well.
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
On the other hand, none of the polls are giving the Tories a lead comparable to what we saw in April 2017.Leads of 13% - 15% - those at the higher end - could easily be cut back to 6% - 8% by Polling Day - well into Hung Parliament territory.
The Conservatives came very close to getting a majority with a lead of 2% in 2017. A lead of 8% would give them a 3% swing against Labour. More than enough for a majority. 6% would be tighter.
But a higher vote for third parties such as the LibDems would increase the vote lead needed. We saw that clearly in 2010 when a 7% Tory lead failed to generate a majority. In 2015 the Tory lead was marginaly smaller - just over 6% - yet they managed a majority due to the LibDem collapse.
That entirely depends on distribution. If remainers, sick of Corbyn's prevarication, vote Lib Dem in Labour held marginals Labour is in trouble. An evenly divided opposition can greatly favour the Tories as it did with Maggie's majorities in the 80s.
The (surely) forthcoming election is more unpredictable than most but Labour risk losing seats to everyone, the Tories, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
All the arguments in favour of HS2 revolve around a reduction in the time it takes to get to London. No-one ever suggests it would be quicker to get to Birmingham or Manchester. If they did the sheer lop-sided absurdity of the project would be revealed.
For all the speculation I do expect the 31st January date to be agreed
If it is not it is down to a Frenchman
Now have we heard that before I wonder
Depends where you see or hear the speculation. The Brexit supporting media manipulates its readers into thinking all sorts of things for instance the Daily Express today or yesterday had the French President vetoing an extension. If you take a step back from much of the media you can really see how they shape people's thinking. It is a form of political socialisation, which ultimately snares the unwitting into believing all sorts of nonsense...
Forget the Expres, Sky and most of the media are reporting that Macron only wants a few days maybe to the 15th November
And these reports are tonight
As I have said I would be surpised if he prevailed but the EU are split
All the arguments in favour of HS2 revolve around a reduction in the time it takes to get to London. No-one ever suggests it would be quicker to get to Birmingham or Manchester. If they did the sheer lop-sided absurdity of the project would be revealed.
I thought a big argument in favour of it was the increased capacity it would bring.
Question: how many Labour MPs would have to vote for an early election in order to reach the magic 434 figure, assuming that the other parties vote for one (except perhaps the independent Conservatives)?
I make the answer around 80, which isn't that many out of 250.
You would need to find 80 Labour MPs that are certifiably insane. Granted, you could probably fish out 40 or so that meet that criterion, but 80 is pushing it.
The 15th is only to ratify the deal . Not a take it or leave it offer . A longer extension will be offered if there’s an election .
Of course, it would be the irony of all time if, having negotiated a deal with the EU and achieved a Commons majority of 30 in favour of it, Johnson followed in Theresa May's footsteps - was tempted by poll leads into an election, and then saw it all evaporate during the campaign.
More Boris cowardice it would seem...... What a spineless individual.
Having an election "spineless"? Well it's a view I suppose.
While I despise Johnson, I have to confess I find it peculiar that he’s being abused for trying to get an election and Corbyn is being abused for trying to block one.
It’s fine to criticise them for being liars, bullies, retards, populists, cronyists, racists and hypocrites, but this one doesn’t make sense. Either there should be an election, or there shouldn’t. But all people are doing is seeing it through their partisan specs and screaming at the other side for stopping them.
Sorry - I put it against the wrong tweet. There were two of them. This one (above) and another complaining that Boris had bottled out of a monthly grilling by MPs. For the third time. That was the tweet I meant to post against (below)
Question: how many Labour MPs would have to vote for an early election in order to reach the magic 434 figure, assuming that the other parties vote for one (except perhaps the independent Conservatives)?
I make the answer around 80, which isn't that many out of 250.
30 or so right
216 MPs not voting would block it. the 7 SFers are a given, so 209 Labour MPs. There are 245 which allows 36 to rebel
Comments
So the net gain they need is small, very small. Against that they may well lose 7 or 8 seats in Scotland and they may lose some to the yellow peril in the SW and London, maybe a dozen. On current polling their chances of gaining more than these 2 put together plus the required margin from a Labour Party in a very bad place must be good.
I don't disagree with Alastair that, as in 2017, people might start to think seriously about voting tactically against the Tories if they see a real risk of Boris storming off with a large majority. In extremis that might even mean some people holding their nose and voting Labour as a stop the Tory vote. It will probably get closer than it is right now but Corbyn is far more tarnished than he was in 2017.
If there is an election in the next few months I think the Tories will get their majority, but probably a modest one once again.
Not the best of trades.
No deal Brexit could happen in various ways but that would be about the stupidest.
It is rumoured it is not just Macron but other leaders who are really not in the consensus
We should see on Friday
Macron really only wants a longer extension if there’s likely to be an election.
What a stupid question.
You split the difference. Go for 31 Jan, but at same time say, 'btw, if the parliament wanted to leave earlier it could do so by Nov 15th'.
This decision is at the heart of the EU and UKs future and of course they are going to act responsibly, if not for any other reason than their own intersts
They must know that we're already looking difficult for an election in December. If it's not December it'll not be early Jan, so unless Boris wins big in a GE then we could have another difficult government situation coming in probably right near the end of Jan anyway, so extend-me-do yet again anyway?
The issue is capacity. Building a new line is less disruptive than trying to widen the WCML. And if you're building a brand new line it makes sense to build it high speed. But I expect it will be scrapped in keeping with our new national pastime of making stupid backwards looking decisions to appease the prejudices of narrow minded provincial retirees. This country is a joke.
+1 - HS2 allows the West Coast Mainline (and the East Coast Mainline south of York) to be used for more local services. The issue is that this was never used as the selling point of the project so it deserves to die for sheer stupidity.
This is completely unprecedented.
#FFSPeston
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/impeachment-republicans-trump-055688
It’s fine to criticise them for being liars, bullies, retards, populists, cronyists, racists and hypocrites, but this one doesn’t make sense. Either there should be an election, or there shouldn’t. But all people are doing is seeing it through their partisan specs and screaming at the other side for stopping them.
Personally I think we are very close to having enough people to pass a deal - any deal. Johnson may already, just about, have the numbers, and is throwing a bit of a tantrum about not meeting his deadline.
Second referendum supporters will be hoping that Labour Leavers and Tory anti-no-dealers will come around to passing the deal with a confirmatory Remain vs Deal referendum attached.
Corbyn loyalists will be holding out for all anti-no-dealers to install him as Glorious Leader and support him as he negotiates a different deal to put to a referendum.
There are probably other factions. I wonder whether we might have a new one form in favour of resurrecting May's Deal?
It's not that there are any shortage of proposed ways ahead - that's part of the problem. If there were only two sides then one would clearly have won by now and we wouldn't be stuck.
If it is not it is down to a Frenchman
Now have we heard that before I wonder
The prospect of either Johnson or Corbyn with a majority scares me.
Were the LDs to win enough seats to be in the kingmaker position, I certainly could not countenance us supporting Corbyn but nor would I support the Party backing Johnson so it would be on a bill by bill basis in the Commons.
We can all sign up to more spending on the NHS and the Police and tax cuts but that circle can't be easily squared with borrowing back above £40m under Johnson. While he is nowhere near the economic risk Corbyn and McDonnell would be, I don't trust him not to end up borrowing too much and leaving us all one day with a problem.
For all the vitriol he gets from some Conservatives, Hammond didn't do a bad job at the Treasury.
You do talk some rubbish at times, Justin, even when you’re not sending bizarre and faintly menacing emails to MPs.
https://newsthump.com/2019/10/23/eu-confirm-they-will-extend-article-50-until-all-leave-voters-have-died/
Good night.
Knocking offAdding 18 hours to the Birmingham-London travel time......Oh no... wait.. that was 200 years ago!
I know some like to keep track of the magic numbers.
BJ hasn't really had a "government" not in the truest sense of the word. His domestic agenda (and yes he does have one) is probably completely unknown save a few soundbites.
Corbyn is already priced in. His novelty is no longer there. He comes across as a dour, miserable, humourless unsmiling merchant of doom. A couple of weeks of of shuffling around the country in the cold and dark winter days, shouting at ever-shrinking rallies in the rain pledging to nationalise paperclips and sequestrate peoples houses.It won't seem to be the most attractive of things before Christmas.
There'll be no "accidental" leak of the Labour manifesto this time. Hopefully no National Emergencies, or NHS computer hacks, or an imbecilic Tory manifesto with a Leader that turns to stone in front of the average voter. Added to which the Labour manifesto won't be treated like a copy of the Beano this time and it will be, quite rightly, more thoroughly scrutinised by the media,and more importantly attacked by a much more savvy Tory Election machine.
Johnson is a proven campaigner - he won London twice which people seem to always conveniently forget. He's even being criticised on here for campaigning right now (how dare he!). Those that hate him, hate him. Those that like him, tend to love him. Those in the middle see a relatively charming familiar face, a bit vague sometimes, bumbles a bit but overall a good bloke.
Those that hate him are falling into the same trap people like me did in 2017. My hatred of Corbyn blinded me to the evident ability he had to campaign on his difference and novelty. Time and again Anti-Corbynites played the man and not the ball. We underestimated him. I think you're making the same mistake this time.
If nothing else the past few weeks has taught people don't underestimate Johnson or assume you have him where you want him. He is far far too clever for that and has the personality and presence to turn a situation to his advantage very effectively.
The (surely) forthcoming election is more unpredictable than most but Labour risk losing seats to everyone, the Tories, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
I make the answer around 80, which isn't that many out of 250.
The Government lost ground in the election campaigns of 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - both 1974 elections - 1987 - and certainly 2017. Very little change in 1955 or 2005. The polling data is available - should you wish to lower yourself to consult it.
To be clear , I am asserting that on Polling Day incumbent Governments fare less well than implied by polls at the time the election was announced. To take the 1959 example - when Macmillan announced the election in the first week of September , there were polls giving the Tories a lead of 7% - 9%. On election day - 8th October - the Tories won by 5%.. Check the data yourself!
Still, if they facilitate Prime Minister Corbyn, they will deserve everything they get.
And these reports are tonight
As I have said I would be surpised if he prevailed but the EU are split
https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1187070508015243264
216 MPs not voting would block it. the 7 SFers are a given, so 209 Labour MPs. There are 245 which allows 36 to rebel