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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The People Will Speak

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The People Will Speak

There are, broadly, two groups supporting Brexit. First: people who feel that globalisation has gone too far, the cards stacked for far too long in favour of the rich, the well-connected, the mobile, the “citizens of the world”. They want more attention paid to those valuing home, the local, the familiar, the traditional, the markers of belonging: a flag, anthem, a shared history, a sense of “us” and “our story”. Conservative – in the sense of not wanting too much disruptive change too fast – but not necessarily Tory. They distrust an economic view which sees people as “human resources” to be exploited, moved around and made redundant when no longer needed, one which makes it harder to get a permanent reliable job, buy a home, create a secure future. They want governments to focus on their needs first, rather than those of international investors or foreigners. They want control over those who are let into the country, control often meaning a reduction in immigration, especially for some from far away countries They want control over how they are governed and by whom, more than they feel they have.

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Comments

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    JFDI ...but do what?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    Penddu said:

    JFDI ...but do what?

    Just fecking do it
  • BJTBJT Posts: 14
    Great piece, CycleFree.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    On topic, I think maybe we just get an everlasting tribal pitched battle where the leave side blame anything that goes wrong on the remain side and vice versa. You can work out different demographics and interest groups within the two great factions who want different things but once the identity battle is entrenched enough none of that matters.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    edited October 2019
    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    The Independent Irreconcilables (4)

    Voted against the Second Reading as well as the timetabling vote :

    Bebb
    Greening
    Grieve
    Nokes (double abstain)

    Nokes is an odd one because she voted against Letwin but then abstained twice yesterday. Greening and Bebb both say they are standing down. Remainerville Putney post-Greening looks a toss up. The other 3 look like holds.

    The Yes But No But Yes-ers (6):

    Ken Clarke
    Rory Stewart
    Richard Harrington
    Philip Hammond
    Ann Milton
    Antoinette Sandbach

    The first three all say they're standing down. Harrington's slightly Brexit-leaning Watford constituency might conceivably be in play if there's very strong tactical voting and Farage splits the leave vote.

    Of the rest I personally only give a chance of an overturn result in Guildford but even then, this looks a stretch now there's a Deal.

    The Voluntary Indies (2):

    Amber Rudd
    Nick Boles

    Resigned the whip but then backed the government on both votes yesterday. Both standing down. Boles leaves a safe seat behind. One suspects Boris might have done enough to hold Rudd's Brexity uber-marginal Hastings seat, especially given there is currently no assigned Brexit Party candidate.

    The Prodigal Children (10)

    Benyon
    Burt
    Letwin
    Soames

    Brine
    Clark
    Gauke
    S Hammond
    James
    Vaizey

    I have the top-4 as standing down. Presumably the rest will get the whip back?Steven Hammond in Wimbledon and Vaizey in Oxfordshire possibly in play but should on balance be safe from Remainer fury, given they'd no longer have to run under a Deal or No Deal manifesto.

    Outcome

    Party Discipline from the 288 looks pretty solid. By refreshing the candidate list from the above groups, that gets Boris back to 310-315 seats before we get to the business of figuring out swings in the rest of the CON-LAB, CON-SNP and CON-LD marginals.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Great thread CycleFree - while much has been made of the Leaver's failure to coalesce around a plan, I wonder if history will be unkind too to Remainers who rather than try to reverse the result could have built a consensus for the post-Brexit relationship. Now all we have is a dialogue of the deaf.

    Completely OT - browsing Canadian media - two stories stood out - the British family which "accidentally" drove into the US had $16,000 in cash on them:

    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/we-have-been-treated-like-criminals-british-family-who-accidentally-drove-into-u-s-detained-with-infant

    And the Trans-Activist who sued ethnic minority Home Beauty salon owners for failing to provide a 'full Brazilian" had her case chucked out and was ordered to pay costs:

    https://nationalpost.com/news/trans-activist-jessica-yaniv-filed-genital-wax-complaints-as-means-of-extortion-rights-tribunal-rules
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    No, because it wasn’t requested last night so cannot be put on today’s order of business.

    However today will be just the second time Boris has answered Prime Ministers Questions
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    No, because it wasn’t requested last night so cannot be put on today’s order of business.

    However today will be just the second time Boris has answered Prime Ministers Questions
    Sure. But it might be the day they all say, Yes Ok let’s do it, with the formalities tied up tomorrow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FPT:

    I know it's one poll, and it's YouGov (which tends to show the Tories with stronger leads than other pollsters) but some of the breakouts are striking:

    Tory Lead:
    GB: +15
    ABC1: +13
    C2DE: +17

    Among ABC1 LD ahead of Lab (24 vs 22) while among C2DE LD on 12, vs Lab on 22.

    There is a similar picture on 'Best PM':

    Johnson lead:
    GB: +23
    ABC1: +18
    C2DE: +30

    Tory lead:
    18-24: -10
    25-49: -4
    50-64: +22
    65+: +44

    The Con vote is now slightly 'stickier' than the LD vote (hasn't been the case for a while):

    % 2017 voters VI same now (ie 73% of those who voted Con in 17 have Con VI now):
    Con: 73
    Lab: 53
    LD: 69

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mh2qgto87a/TheTimes_191021_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    "those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    Great thread CycleFree - while much has been made of the Leaver's failure to coalesce around a plan, I wonder if history will be unkind too to Remainers who rather than try to reverse the result could have built a consensus for the post-Brexit relationship. Now all we have is a dialogue of the deaf.

    Just as the uber ERG-ers may still live to regret turning down May in pursuit of No Deal / No Customs Union, the Remainers in Parliament look to have made a big mistake not pushing hard in a united way for a Norway exit, rather than faffing about trying to overturn the referendum entirely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    And also OT - activist Journalist (sic) Owen Jones fave candidate for West Midlands mayor and technically ineligible (but Lansman's fixed that) Salma Yaqoob - background on why Naz Shah, MP not a fan:

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/how-bad-tempered-election-bradford-17033963
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roll on a GE. I don't like Boris , but I want to see Corbyn's idea of Labour destroyed .
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.

    We are in the fag-end of Conservatism. Johnson's attempt to unite the party is paper thin. The party is actually still at war, over Brexit sure but also a host of other things. The lurch to the right has been to the detriment of the One Nation tories and I continue to maintain that extremists don't win British elections. The centre ground is always where power is won and lost. The Conservatives have limped along in office since 2010: first through coalition and then through the disastrous Brexit fiasco. The ire of voters may soon turn on them. Whipping this up will be Mr Nigel Farage, who will make great play of the failure to get Brexit done. Furthermore, and this is crucial, Farage will point out that Johnson's deal will be amended by the House of Commons to include Customs Union. Therefore he will present the No Deal alternative. Many, many, Brexit voters will be hoovered up by this. The party which won 30.5% of the vote in May hasn't suddenly gone away.

    Aside from Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is doing rather well at times. Okay, so he's toxic but he's a decent campaigner and good at firing up on issues that really matter to him. Don't assume he won't touch the spot in areas like NHS, schooling, transport.

    The country is (allegedly) now 55% Remain to 45% Leave. The LibDems will do exceptionally well in remain areas. I expect large swathes of Tory England to be challenged by the yellows. And whilst I'm on that subject, MM's airy dismissal of their chances in Totnes should be tempered. The seat was very marginal through the 1980's and 1990's. Sarah Wollaston was NOT your average Conservative candidate. She attracted support because she was selected by open primary and pulled in centrists. She wasn't a career tory, nor anything like it.

    I expect another hung parliament. In fact, I suspect the result will be an even more hung parliament than now i.e. the tories + DUP will not make up the numbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Roll on a GE. I don't like Boris , but I want to see Corbyn's idea of Labour destroyed .

    I wonder whether the LDs can beat Labour in the popular vote.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.

    We are in the fag-end of Conservatism. Johnson's attempt to unite the party is paper thin. The party is actually still at war, over Brexit sure but also a host of other things. The lurch to the right has been to the detriment of the One Nation tories and I continue to maintain that extremists don't win British elections. The centre ground is always where power is won and lost. The Conservatives have limped along in office since 2010: first through coalition and then through the disastrous Brexit fiasco. The ire of voters may soon turn on them. Whipping this up will be Mr Nigel Farage, who will make great play of the failure to get Brexit done. Furthermore, and this is crucial, Farage will point out that Johnson's deal will be amended by the House of Commons to include Customs Union. Therefore he will present the No Deal alternative. Many, many, Brexit voters will be hoovered up by this. The party which won 30.5% of the vote in May hasn't suddenly gone away.

    Aside from Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is doing rather well at times. Okay, so he's toxic but he's a decent campaigner and good at firing up on issues that really matter to him. Don't assume he won't touch the spot in areas like NHS, schooling, transport.

    The country is (allegedly) now 55% Remain to 45% Leave. The LibDems will do exceptionally well in remain areas. I expect large swathes of Tory England to be challenged by the yellows. And whilst I'm on that subject, MM's airy dismissal of their chances in Totnes should be tempered. The seat was very marginal through the 1980's and 1990's. Sarah Wollaston is NOT your average Conservative candidate. She attracted support because she was selected by open primary and pulled in centrists.

    I expect another hung parliament. In fact, I suspect the result will be an even more hung parliament than now i.e. the tories + DUP will not make up the numbers.

    Interesting. My political weather vane, who always seems to call it right, says he thinks Corbyn remains far more popular than the polls say. I really struggle to see Labour polling too much lower than Brown did. Voting margin of 5-7% when it comes to it?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    moonshine said:

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.

    We are in the fag-end of Conservatism. Johnson's attempt to unite the party is paper thin. The party is actually still at war, over Brexit sure but also a host of other things. The lurch to the right has been to the detriment of the One Nation tories and I continue to maintain that extremists don't win British elections. The centre ground is always where power is won and lost. The Conservatives have limped along in office since 2010: first through coalition and then through the disastrous Brexit fiasco. The ire of voters may soon turn on them. Whipping this up will be Mr Nigel Farage, who will make great play of the failure to get Brexit done. Furthermore, and this is crucial, Farage will point out that Johnson's deal will be amended by the House of Commons to include Customs Union. Therefore he will present the No Deal alternative. Many, many, Brexit voters will be hoovered up by this. The party which won 30.5% of the vote in May hasn't suddenly gone away.

    Aside from Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is doing rather well at times. Okay, so he's toxic but he's a decent campaigner and good at firing up on issues that really matter to him. Don't assume he won't touch the spot in areas like NHS, schooling, transport.

    The country is (allegedly) now 55% Remain to 45% Leave. The LibDems will do exceptionally well in remain areas. I expect large swathes of Tory England to be challenged by the yellows. And whilst I'm on that subject, MM's airy dismissal of their chances in Totnes should be tempered. The seat was very marginal through the 1980's and 1990's. Sarah Wollaston is NOT your average Conservative candidate. She attracted support because she was selected by open primary and pulled in centrists.

    I expect another hung parliament. In fact, I suspect the result will be an even more hung parliament than now i.e. the tories + DUP will not make up the numbers.

    Interesting. My political weather vane, who always seems to call it right, says he thinks Corbyn remains far more popular than the polls say. I really struggle to see Labour polling too much lower than Brown did. Voting margin of 5-7% when it comes to it?
    I agree
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    I don't think Gymah can hold his seat as a LD, since even a very big swing wouldn't be enough. But he could move to somewhere like Guildford or Winchester and have a good chance of winning.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    moonshine said:

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.
    .

    Interesting. My political weather vane, who always seems to call it right, says he thinks Corbyn remains far more popular than the polls say. I really struggle to see Labour polling too much lower than Brown did. Voting margin of 5-7% when it comes to it?
    I agree
    Then again, you have a somewhat one sided argument in that you think Brexit will be something of a sideshow in the election leaving Labour’s vote fairly solid, except to the extent that it will matter a lot because it will drive Tory voters to Farage and Swinson respectively.

    Given the Corbyn fear factor for Tory voters, I’m not sure I buy the argument that Tory tribalism will be substantially weaker than Labour tribalism, especially given Boris is now campaigning on a Deal platform, and one which has been enthusiastically endorsed by the ERG and the likes of Arron Banks.

    I’m going for a workable if unspectacular majority.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think Gymah can hold his seat as a LD, since even a very big swing wouldn't be enough. But he could move to somewhere like Guildford or Winchester and have a good chance of winning.

    Is there time though? Lib Dem’s have announced same candidate in Guildford as last time that did quite well. If Parliament is dissolved in the next week there’s not a lot of time for candidate Hokey Cokey.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.
    .

    Interesting. My political weather vane, who always seems to call it right, says he thinks Corbyn remains far more popular than the polls say. I really struggle to see Labour polling too much lower than Brown did. Voting margin of 5-7% when it comes to it?
    I agree
    Then again, you have a somewhat one sided argument in that you think Brexit will be something of a sideshow in the election leaving Labour’s vote fairly solid, except to the extent that it will matter a lot because it will drive Tory voters to Farage and Swinson respectively.

    Given the Corbyn fear factor for Tory voters, I’m not sure I buy the argument that Tory tribalism will be substantially weaker than Labour tribalism, especially given Boris is now campaigning on a Deal platform, and one which has been enthusiastically endorsed by the ERG and the likes of Arron Banks.

    I’m going for a workable if unspectacular majority.
    Brexit rates about 9th out of 10 of things that bother Labour voters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    moonshine said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think Gymah can hold his seat as a LD, since even a very big swing wouldn't be enough. But he could move to somewhere like Guildford or Winchester and have a good chance of winning.

    Is there time though? Lib Dem’s have announced same candidate in Guildford as last time that did quite well. If Parliament is dissolved in the next week there’s not a lot of time for candidate Hokey Cokey.
    I agree, unless there's a seat where the candidate has stood down recently.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    I know this comes as a shock to the ERG types but the EU was never of interest to most people in this country. We had an occasional laugh at their expense, often about over-zealous protection of rights or butter mountains and bureaucracy or apparently inebriated commissioners. But generally it was of little or no interest.

    Brexit has vexed people but that's mainly because it has dragged on and on and on.

    Corbyn won't talk much about Brexit. It bores him. I think in this regard he will really hit a spot.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Don't buy the hype: Boris Johnson's Brexit deal did not win approval
    Jonathan Freedland

    MPs have voted for the bill to go forward, but that doesn’t mean they all back it – or that the saga is ending any time soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/dont-fall-for-the-hype-mps-not-approve-boris-johnson-deal
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The argument against Corbyn has always been that he is a dangerous ideologue who would tear up established norms in pursuit of his wild agenda.

    Meanwhile we have Dom in Downing Street doing precisely that
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Roll on a GE. I don't like Boris , but I want to see Corbyn's idea of Labour destroyed .

    I fear Corbyn's idea of Labour will survive both an election defeat and Corbyn's departure
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    A great piece. I am sure that Brexit will eventually break its champions. It simply will not work as advertised, and the electorate will be more angry than you can begin to imagine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    It'll be December where I have a small betting hole but don't want to cover at evens
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any Con/LD seat which voted at least 55% Remain ought to be a LD target at the next election, even the ones with big majorities.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Anyway, it looks as if my tip back in February is finally going to come true: an autumn General Election. Although, technically 5th December is winter.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Only had a chance to scan the article but it looks good.

    The description of the two groups is fair (I’m in both camps as a good one nation Tory)

    But the issues you are describing are more properly for the future negotiations

    I find it extraordinary that Labour is seeking to put domestic political policies into an international treaty Vs being prepared to fight for what they believe in at an election
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Problem is a lot of Labour MPs only voted for it in order to bring forward amendments that wouldn't be acceptable to the government. They may not vote in favour of it again without those amendments.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
    Remarkable, really, since from the first day she arrived in the Commons after GE2015 she didn’t really act like a Conservative.

    I honestly have no idea why she joined.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Problem is a lot of Labour MPs only voted for it in order to bring forward amendments that wouldn't be acceptable to the government. They may not vote in favour of it again without those amendments.
    Quite.

    Most of the MSM were surprisingly moderate overnight but the usual suspects (Express and Mail) stayed predictably shrill.

    It was pretty smart of Corbyn to turn a blind eye on Labour leavers voting through the 2nd reading in exchange for screwing things down on the timetable motion. He and the Labour whips office are astute. Cummings could learn a lot from them.

    It also took the heat out of things somewhat. No one can entirely accuse Parliament of 'blocking' Brexit: it's now 'delaying' Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    What I find interesting is how GE2017 was almost a complete waste of time.

    Had we not had one Boris (now) would probably have about 318-320 votes he could count on, which would probably be enough for almost all key divisions, and the next GE (2020) would be just round the corner anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    The same applies to the referendum.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
    Remarkable, really, since from the first day she arrived in the Commons after GE2015 she didn’t really act like a Conservative.

    I honestly have no idea why she joined.
    The seat encompasses two liberal Cambridge colleges (Homerton and Girton) and an increasing proportion of overflow Cambridge tech workers and academics. In the last twenty years, it's gone from wealthy agricultural seat, to Cambridge and London tech overflow.

    It's the kind of seat that would be trending libdem in normal times.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    On topic, good article from Cyclefree.

    Clearly, it’s impossible for all of those concerns to be reconciled fully addressed. Boris’s best play would be to end political union with the option of regulatory flexibility for the latter, and offer the option of firmer migration controls and more balanced investment and economic growth (jobs, not splurging) to the regions in the former.

    That would obey the spirit of the referendum result.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Problem is a lot of Labour MPs only voted for it in order to bring forward amendments that wouldn't be acceptable to the government. They may not vote in favour of it again without those amendments.
    Actually many voted for the Bill's.second reading knowingbthey had a free get out of jail card on the programme motion therefore the bill numbers were over inflated
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    edited October 2019

    What I find interesting is how GE2017 was almost a complete waste of time.

    Had we not had one Boris (now) would probably have about 318-320 votes he could count on, which would probably be enough for almost all key divisions, and the next GE (2020) would be just round the corner anyway.

    Had we not had GE 2107 then TM would have still had a Con overall majority. There might have been some dissenters, but her version of Brexit would probably have been voted through. The official exit was on 31st March 2019 and the UK and EU would now be discussing details of things like trade agreements.

    And May would still be PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
    My point is that neither a General Election nor second referendum will be politically conclusive.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
    Remarkable, really, since from the first day she arrived in the Commons after GE2015 she didn’t really act like a Conservative.

    I honestly have no idea why she joined.
    The seat encompasses two liberal Cambridge colleges (Homerton and Girton) and an increasing proportion of overflow Cambridge tech workers and academics. In the last twenty years, it's gone from wealthy agricultural seat, to Cambridge and London tech overflow.

    It's the kind of seat that would be trending libdem in normal times.
    Go to Cambridge: end up soaking wet.

    Give me a redbrick any day.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
    Brexit is a problem to which a solution acceptable to the EU, the UK govt, and now by a majority of 30 to parliament, is on the table right now.

    Were it not for the usual wreckers of whom Corbyn is one, we would be implementing it now. That’s what will torpedo Corbyn’s chances of the kind of election he wants. For Swinson on the other hand it’s a result of her keeping faith with her stated position of no Brexit ever.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
    Remarkable, really, since from the first day she arrived in the Commons after GE2015 she didn’t really act like a Conservative.

    I honestly have no idea why she joined.
    The seat encompasses two liberal Cambridge colleges (Homerton and Girton) and an increasing proportion of overflow Cambridge tech workers and academics. In the last twenty years, it's gone from wealthy agricultural seat, to Cambridge and London tech overflow.

    It's the kind of seat that would be trending libdem in normal times.
    Go to Cambridge: end up soaking wet.

    Give me a redbrick any day.
    Girton is a Cambridge college but also redbrick, best of both worlds.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
    I agree to an extent that other issues will get a look in, however, the 2017 election was wider in scope because Brexit was essentially given a back seat by both parties promising to take us out of the EU. Plus Theresa, badly advised and with poor political instinct, widened the net to bring the discussion onto things like pensioner benefits and care, clearly feeling she’d won the Brexit battle and could now turn to talking about stuff a Tory government with a whacking majority would do (and alienating voters in the process).

    Here the divisions will be sharper on Brexit and it is likely to be the dominant, but not only, issue.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Northstar said:

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
    Brexit is a problem to which a solution acceptable to the EU, the UK govt, and now by a majority of 30 to parliament, is on the table right now.

    Were it not for the usual wreckers of whom Corbyn is one, we would be implementing it now. That’s what will torpedo Corbyn’s chances of the kind of election he wants. For Swinson on the other hand it’s a result of her keeping faith with her stated position of no Brexit ever.
    The deal is just the start of a very long process, and has already created more problems than it solves. Personally I am looking forward to the crushing disappointment and anger phase of Brexit, it will be the moment that Remainers can go from being the most angry to the least angry section of the population.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.

    Any terms we did reach wouldn’t be worth it, and they’d use it to subject us to geopolitical blackmail on fundamental values in our foreign policy that really matter to the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
    Remarkable, really, since from the first day she arrived in the Commons after GE2015 she didn’t really act like a Conservative.

    I honestly have no idea why she joined.
    The seat encompasses two liberal Cambridge colleges (Homerton and Girton) and an increasing proportion of overflow Cambridge tech workers and academics. In the last twenty years, it's gone from wealthy agricultural seat, to Cambridge and London tech overflow.

    It's the kind of seat that would be trending libdem in normal times.
    Go to Cambridge: end up soaking wet.

    Give me a redbrick any day.
    It takes all sorts to make a nation. Just red bricks, just Hampstead-ites, just conservatives, just liberals, just anything make for a dull and failing state.

    We need it all, even if it makes us uncomfortable some times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
    I agree. General Elections are never over a single subject, as we saw in 2017. Corbyn will not want to lead on it, both for strategic reasons and for his own interests. Lib Dems more so, but that may well be the right strategy in their target seats. SNP will push Indy ref too and probably a NI like deal.

    I suspect that a British public Bored of Brexit won't be keen on a Brexit election either.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.

    Any terms we did reach wouldn’t be worth it, and they’d use it to subject us to geopolitical blackmail on fundamental values in our foreign policy that really matter to the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is today the day they finally all agree to hold an election?

    Working the Blues' numbers, I make it that there are 27 MPs sitting in Parliament who were elected as Tories but are now not.

    The non-independents (5):

    Soubry (TIG)
    Lee (LD)
    Wallaston (LD)
    Gymah (LD)
    Allen (LD)

    Of these perhaps only Wallaston stands a decent chance of retaining her seat and even then MarkyMark thinks not. Soubry's seat is a toss up of course but seems unlikely she'll be the winner herself.

    I would say Heidi Allen is by far the most likely to hold her seat.
    Maybe yeah. 62% odd Remain seat. But then again the Lib Dem candidate was still 13% behind Lansley in the 2010 Cleggasm election.
    She's a popular incumbent, the libdems have s good local organisation, and a number of prominent local conservatives have stuck with her. If she'd stood as an independent, with the LDs remaining neutral, then I think she'd be a clear favourite. As it is, I'd make her a 50/50 shot.
    Remarkable, really, since from the first day she arrived in the Commons after GE2015 she didn’t really act like a Conservative.

    I honestly have no idea why she joined.
    The seat encompasses two liberal Cambridge colleges (Homerton and Girton) and an increasing proportion of overflow Cambridge tech workers and academics. In the last twenty years, it's gone from wealthy agricultural seat, to Cambridge and London tech overflow.

    It's the kind of seat that would be trending libdem in normal times.
    Go to Cambridge: end up soaking wet.

    Give me a redbrick any day.
    It takes all sorts to make a nation. Just red bricks, just Hampstead-ites, just conservatives, just liberals, just anything make for a dull and failing state.

    We need it all, even if it makes us uncomfortable some times.
    We even need Zac Goldsmith.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Problem is a lot of Labour MPs only voted for it in order to bring forward amendments that wouldn't be acceptable to the government. They may not vote in favour of it again without those amendments.
    And, then, the same would apply to the ERG too.

    We’re stuck in a doom loop.

    Fun.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    Northstar said:

    I don't often find myself agreeing with Tony Blair but this current received wisdom that a General Election will clear the Brexit air may well be a chimera.

    The country is evenly split. I suspect the election may well be.

    But, the same applies to a referendum as well.
    Not quite. A General Election, which I have been at pains to point out, will NOT be a Brexit election. It's never single issue and this one won't be. Or, rather, it might be for Farage and the right-wing but it won't be for 75% of the country. Other issues will come to the fore, especially in a long campaign as we now have under the unfortunate FTPA. Corbyn isn't interested in Brexit and will campaign on things close to his heart, some of which will really resonate. For example, I reckon nationalisation of the railways is going to get a huge amount of support. As an avid rail users I'm one of the vast majority totally sick of the current set up. The NHS will also be very prominent: winter time raising it particularly to the fore.

    If a referendum were offered, which I can't see happening in the immediate future, it could at least be very focused: A specific deal vs remain and (perhaps) vs no deal. But I agree that if this then split down the middle it would all rumble on.

    Brexit is the problem to which there was never a solution.
    Brexit is a problem to which a solution acceptable to the EU, the UK govt, and now by a majority of 30 to parliament, is on the table right now.

    Were it not for the usual wreckers of whom Corbyn is one, we would be implementing it now. That’s what will torpedo Corbyn’s chances of the kind of election he wants. For Swinson on the other hand it’s a result of her keeping faith with her stated position of no Brexit ever.
    They are not wreckers and it's not an acceptable solution. It will need amending.

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    And can I point out that it's Johnson who has petulantly paused the legislation? If he wasn't such a prick the bill would now be in committee stage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Good Article @Cyclefree, it is hard to see how Conservatives can keep the Brexit coalition together. It seems obvious to me that it is the free trading Atlanticists that control the party, and it is the small c conservatives in Shires and old coalfields that are going to get shafted again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.

    We are in the fag-end of Conservatism. Johnson's attempt to unite the party is paper thin. The party is actually still at war, over Brexit sure but also a host of other things. The lurch to the right has been to the detriment of the One Nation tories and I continue to maintain that extremists don't win British elections. The centre ground is always where power is won and lost. The Conservatives have limped along in office since 2010: first through coalition and then through the disastrous Brexit fiasco. The ire of voters may soon turn on them. Whipping this up will be Mr Nigel Farage, who will make great play of the failure to get Brexit done. Furthermore, and this is crucial, Farage will point out that Johnson's deal will be amended by the House of Commons to include Customs Union. Therefore he will present the No Deal alternative. Many, many, Brexit voters will be hoovered up by this. The party which won 30.5% of the vote in May hasn't suddenly gone away.

    Aside from Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is doing rather well at times. Okay, so he's toxic but he's a decent campaigner and good at firing up on issues that really matter to him. Don't assume he won't touch the spot in areas like NHS, schooling, transport.

    The country is (allegedly) now 55% Remain to 45% Leave. The LibDems will do exceptionally well in remain areas. I expect large swathes of Tory England to be challenged by the yellows. And whilst I'm on that subject, MM's airy dismissal of their chances in Totnes should be tempered. The seat was very marginal through the 1980's and 1990's. Sarah Wollaston was NOT your average Conservative candidate. She attracted support because she was selected by open primary and pulled in centrists. She wasn't a career tory, nor anything like it.

    I expect another hung parliament. In fact, I suspect the result will be an even more hung parliament than now i.e. the tories + DUP will not make up the numbers.

    Can you give examples of the Tory “lurch to the right”? It seems a fairly moderate, fiscally expansionist government - some silly rhetoric from Patel but not much action
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Is a November election now impossible?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.

    I had a friend post that he'd joined the ERG on Facebook...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    rkrkrk said:

    Is a November election now impossible?

    Not until Friday (in theory).
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.
    .

    I'll go on the record to say anyone deluding themselves they've got an FTA with China should be confined to an asylum.

    Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Charles said:

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    Cummings may appear to have his foot on Labour's throat but I will play devil's advocate.

    Brexit will NOT dominate the election campaign. It will have its moments, but as soon as the extension is agreed it will fade from people's consciousness. Most ordinary voters are not angry about Brexit, they're bored by it. We will be entering winter and the run-up to Christmas. Minds will be on Brussels, but not that kind.

    We are in the fag-end of Conservatism. Johnson's attempt to unite the party is paper thin. The party is actually still at war, over Brexit sure but also a host of other things. The lurch to the right has been to the detriment of the One Nation tories and I continue to maintain that extremists don't win British elections. The centre ground is always where power is won and lost. The Conservatives have limped along in office since 2010: first through coalition and then through the disastrous Brexit fiasco. The ire of voters may soon turn on them. Whipping this up will be Mr Nigel Farage, who will make great play of the failure to get Brexit done. Furthermore, and this is crucial, Farage will point out that Johnson's deal will be amended by the House of Commons to include Customs Union. Therefore he will present the No Deal alternative. Many, many, Brexit voters will be hoovered up by this. The party which won 30.5% of the vote in May hasn't suddenly gone away.

    Aside from Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is doing rather well at times. Okay, so he's toxic but he's a decent campaigner and good at firing up on issues that really matter to him. Don't assume he won't touch the spot in areas like NHS, schooling, transport.

    The country is (allegedly) now 55% Remain to 45% Leave. The LibDems will do exceptionally well in remain areas. I expect large swathes of Tory England to be challenged by the yellows. And whilst I'm on that subject, MM's airy dismissal of their chances in Totnes should be tempered. The seat was very marginal through the 1980's and 1990's. Sarah Wollaston was NOT your average Conservative candidate. She attracted support because she was selected by open primary and pulled in centrists. She wasn't a career tory, nor anything like it.

    I expect another hung parliament. In fact, I suspect the result will be an even more hung parliament than now i.e. the tories + DUP will not make up the numbers.

    Can you give examples of the Tory “lurch to the right”? It seems a fairly moderate, fiscally expansionist government - some silly rhetoric from Patel but not much action
    Patel is without a majority at the moment. Many shudder to think what would happen if she got her hands on one. I see this as an authoritarian nationalist government in waiting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    @Charles , congratulations if you’re still a bull of Biogen.
    https://www.statnews.com/2019/10/22/biogen-to-submit-aducanumab/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    Flanner said:

    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.
    .

    I'll go on the record to say anyone deluding themselves they've got an FTA with China should be confined to an asylum.

    Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
    We don't have the huge mineral resource of Australia so different
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Flanner said:

    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.
    .

    I'll go on the record to say anyone deluding themselves they've got an FTA with China should be confined to an asylum.

    Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
    Western policy (overall) will be increasingly focussed on containing China, i think, which, if smart, will pull India into its orbit as well.

    Xi Jinping is taking China to a very dark place. We can help by stopping buying (currently on WTO rules) their pointless plastic shite.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited October 2019
    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    Freggles said:

    I see Tory Swinsons number one choice was congratulating Jester and saying if bill given 7 days rather than 3 he would vote for it.

    Tory Swinson really doesn't have a clue

    Tory Swinson is still better than Jeremy Corbyn.
    But a vote for Tory Swinson leads to PM Jestet and hard BREXIT.

    It's either PM Jester or Jezza and a 2nd Referendum
    I’m voting for Tory Swinson regardless.
    You aren't that bothered about stopping BREXIT or a 2nd Referendum then.

    What's Tory Swinsons other policies BTW?
    Oh BJO, I remember when we used to post daily YouGov polls with Red Ed winning and the words "tick tock".

    I thought you learned the perils of being hyper partisan from the 2015 experience
    Never used tick tock in any post ever.

    EICIPM was me.
    You have (see above).
    ??

    EICIPM was so 2015

    Tory Swinson is the new EICIPM
    What doies the acronym mean, please?
    Ed (Milliband) Is Crap Is Prime Minister.

    Prior to 2015 many of the polls were showing Labour leads (ask your mother), and criticism of Ed Miliband (the then-Labour leader at a time where Jews weren't hounded from the party) was inevitably met with a retort of "EICIPM"
    Thank you - I had retreated from PB at that time. You may be thinking of someone else, not that it matters at all - my late mother's ideas of Labour were founded on the likes of Harold Wilson and Wedgie Benn (with utter horror).
    I was trying to be funny. The saying "oh, ask your mother" is a humorous way of saying that something happened a long time ago. My use of the phrase was meant to emphasise the fact that the time of Labour leads was many years ago.
    FPT - thank you, I've learned two new things now, and no offence taken at all!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690

    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:
    Problem is a lot of Labour MPs only voted for it in order to bring forward amendments that wouldn't be acceptable to the government. They may not vote in favour of it again without those amendments.
    Quite.

    Most of the MSM were surprisingly moderate overnight but the usual suspects (Express and Mail) stayed predictably shrill.

    It was pretty smart of Corbyn to turn a blind eye on Labour leavers voting through the 2nd reading in exchange for screwing things down on the timetable motion. He and the Labour whips office are astute. Cummings could learn a lot from them.

    It also took the heat out of things somewhat. No one can entirely accuse Parliament of 'blocking' Brexit: it's now 'delaying' Brexit.
    This has been at the back of my mind too. Cummings/Boris think a People vs Parliament election is the smart call but in lots of the key CON-LAB marginals the issue is now neutered. They should push on this week and force the Labour rebels to show their true colours. If it wasn't for Christmas truncating the available period for an election I'm sure they' do this. As it is, I think it's an election.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    I always look at him and think Peter Russo.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    .

    Can you give examples of the Tory “lurch to the right”? It seems a fairly moderate, fiscally expansionist government - some silly rhetoric from Patel but not much action
    Patel is without a majority at the moment. Many shudder to think what would happen if she got her hands on one. I see this as an authoritarian nationalist government in waiting.
    You sound a bit like those American politicians in the 50s that saw a Red hiding behind every corner. It's absurd to think Boris will be leading an "authoritarian nationalist" government.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    rkrkrk said:

    Is a November election now impossible?

    Not until Friday (in theory).
    Thanks. Can be laid at 17.5 atm.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    ydoethur said:

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
    He'd have voted for it if it was his deal with identical wording
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Anyway, it looks as if my tip back in February is finally going to come true: an autumn General Election. Although, technically 5th December is winter.

    Hubert Lamb would have 5th December in early winter, a season distinct from late winter, running from 20th November to 19th January.

    This thinking has renewed popularity among meteorologists recently because of the recent strong influences from the stratosphere on three weather which are more prominent during Lamb's late winter season (20th January to 29th March).

    The division into four three month seasons persists mainly for ease of data recording. See http://www.weathercast.co.uk/nc/weather-news/news/article/the_four_seasons.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.

    The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose. Even in heavily Leave areas 30% or so voted Remain, and overwhelmingly Labour. This includes most of the Labour members and activists. Then there is the small issue of losing the whip.

    Whipless* Leave supporting Kinnock or Flint should start packing as soon as the election is called. Their only chance is staying in the party.

    *Clearing out such right wingers and parachuting in some favoured Trot must be very tempting.

  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
    He'd have voted for it if it was his deal with identical wording
    Correction: he’d have voted for it then argued against it in a subsequent general election...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2019
    Foxy said:

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.

    The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose.
    We had all this in 2017. All this talk of Mrs May winning hitherto 'unthinkable' seats in Labour heartlands.

    It's rubbish, in my opinion.

    Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
    He'd have voted for it if it was his deal with identical wording
    Of course. Being in control of the PD and FTA negotiations is the real prize. If Lab cannot have it, they should not gift it to the Tories. Therefore oppose any Tory lead Deal.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ydoethur said:

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
    Yes I thought the same. Boris Johnson and the EU have done what Corbyn spent 20 years working towards: a united Ireland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Flanner said:

    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.
    .

    I'll go on the record to say anyone deluding themselves they've got an FTA with China should be confined to an asylum.

    Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
    Western policy (overall) will be increasingly focussed on containing China, i think, which, if smart, will pull India into its orbit as well.

    Xi Jinping is taking China to a very dark place. We can help by stopping buying (currently on WTO rules) their pointless plastic shite.
    India and China are likely to remain avowed competitors; I don’t see much of a route to China pulling India ‘into its orbit’.
    And containing China is going to be exceptionally difficult. They are no longer dependent of plastic shite, increasingly focused on their domestic market, and aside from a handful of technologies pretty well up with the best the west of western science.

    Learning how to live with a wholly undemocratic one of two world superpowers is the challenge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
    Yes I thought the same. Boris Johnson and the EU have done what Corbyn spent 20 years working towards: a united Ireland.
    Another of the many ways in which they are very similar...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898

    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.

    Any terms we did reach wouldn’t be worth it, and they’d use it to subject us to geopolitical blackmail on fundamental values in our foreign policy that really matter to the UK.

    Maybe FTAs with any country or grouping that is bigger than the UK would be likely to result in a better deal for the larger player simply because they have more clout. So don't you feel the same way about the US and the EU?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895
    edited October 2019
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Quite apart from anything else, this deal casually dismantles the United Kingdom.

    Thinking about it, that does make it very surprising Corbyn didn’t vote for it.
    He'd have voted for it if it was his deal with identical wording
    Of course. Being in control of the PD and FTA negotiations is the real prize. If Lab cannot have it, they should not gift it to the Tories. Therefore oppose any Tory lead Deal.
    If Labour wants that they'll have to come out as a damn sight more brexit than they are now - if they want to pivot to that position that's their right but I doubt leavers will trust them to 'get it over the line'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Foxy said:

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.

    The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose.
    We had all this in 2017. All this talk of Mrs May winning hitherto 'unthinkable' seats in Labour heartlands.

    It's rubbish, in my opinion.

    Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
    The fabled images of the Tory battle bus driving past the angel of the north are an amusing memory
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BoZo appears to have lost his momentum.

    If the opposition were smart (yes, I know) they would continue to refuse an election under FTPA terms, and vote for a one liner with a yooge set of amendments
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    moonshine said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.

    .

    Can you give examples of the Tory “lurch to the right”? It seems a fairly moderate, fiscally expansionist government - some silly rhetoric from Patel but not much action
    Patel is without a majority at the moment. Many shudder to think what would happen if she got her hands on one. I see this as an authoritarian nationalist government in waiting.
    You sound a bit like those American politicians in the 50s that saw a Red hiding behind every corner. It's absurd to think Boris will be leading an "authoritarian nationalist" government.
    Boris is an incompetant figurehead.

    Dominic Cummings is the actual leader, and he certainly is authoritarian and at least a Russian nationalist.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    I know this comes as a shock to the ERG types but the EU was never of interest to most people in this country. We had an occasional laugh at their expense, often about over-zealous protection of rights or butter mountains and bureaucracy or apparently inebriated commissioners. But generally it was of little or no interest.

    Brexit has vexed people but that's mainly because it has dragged on and on and on....

    It might come as as a shock to you, but that all applies to politics in general.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,895

    Foxy said:

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.

    The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose.
    We had all this in 2017. All this talk of Mrs May winning hitherto 'unthinkable' seats in Labour heartlands.

    It's rubbish, in my opinion.

    Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
    The fabled images of the Tory battle bus driving past the angel of the north are an amusing memory
    Well Johnson isn't going to rock up in Leeds fucking East !!!

    Some of the May targeting was ridiculous
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    Stephen Kinnock seems to be full of it.

    After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.

    The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose.
    We had all this in 2017. All this talk of Mrs May winning hitherto 'unthinkable' seats in Labour heartlands.

    It's rubbish, in my opinion.

    Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
    I think that Lab will lose some, perhaps Don Valley for example, but not that many. None of the Lab held seats in Leicester for example. I don't think Wales or Scotland look good for Labour either, and LDs may have some gains from Lab too. SNP and LD will gain seats.

    I don't think that we will have an election this year, but if we do I guess:

    Lab 220
    LD 45
    SNP 50
    Green 1
    NI 18

    Which leaves Con on 316, with no viable Supply and Confidence deal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China.

    Any terms we did reach wouldn’t be worth it, and they’d use it to subject us to geopolitical blackmail on fundamental values in our foreign policy that really matter to the UK.

    Maybe FTAs with any country or grouping that is bigger than the UK would be likely to result in a better deal for the larger player simply because they have more clout. So don't you feel the same way about the US and the EU?
    Nope, that was (the blindingly and very obvious Remainer comeback) - my concerns relate just to China.

    Although, for slightly separate reasons, I’m sceptical a US-UK Deal would pass both Westminster and the Senate.
This discussion has been closed.