I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
Solve by implementing the most stupid option of all?
Doing the same thing again and expecting a different result is often used to describe insanity.
This it what Revoke does, but on steroids.
It keeps all the underlying issues of UK discontent of the EU in place It maintains a semi detached relationship, one which is bound to cause friction When the core Euro countries act (rightly) in their interests we feel aggrieved
It really is a route to a future of constant bickering.
The only sensible way to stay in EU is to be in the Euro, Shengen and a full committed member. Half in half out as we have been for decades is a position designed to fail through friction.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Brexit man is now waving a poster in front of Sky with the words
'Get ready for civil unrest'
He has lost it
A lot of these Brexit nutters want civil unrest so they can say "told you so". What the thickheads don't seem to have worked out is that their hobbyhorse means that there is just as likely to be civil unrest form the other side, who are generally younger and therefore more likely to vent their frustration. Having a 2% lead in a dodgy referendum 3 years ago doesn't cause the other lot to say, "oh I had better not demonstrate because the other lot have won".
We all know that these nutters are a minority. The thing that dismays me is that people who have no intention of causing trouble and probably would be genuinely horrified if anyone on their side started a terror campaign are still keen to raise the spectre of violence. Because, frankly, they hope it silences the dissent. Sadly, there are a few on these pages who are very fond of magnifying and highlighting those extremists, and for that purpose. I am relieved to report that none of my Leave-voting friends and family have ever been that irresponsible, so I think that this place is simply a distillation of the hardcore rather than representative of Leave voters in general.
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Boris cant afford to delay a GE..if he does I believe he is toast. After not fulfilling the promise of leaving by Oct 31 then he has only one out and that is a people vs parliament GE. The opposition parties know that so will prevaricate because it will boost their chances. We may have just seen peak Boris.
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Whatever happens, people from NI can keep their EU citizenship by obtaining RoI passports, and they don't have to tell the British authorities if they do. Just pick up a form in a post office.
I've sometimes wondered how many members of the British government will be able to keep their EU citizenship if Britain leaves the EU. Quite a few.
Former French Europe Minister saying this is the moment and if a few days are needed for a technical extension that woukd be granted but anymore she asks why should the EU have a British Commissioner in the EU
Looks like the French may cause a real problem
Boris hasn't appointed a Commissioner for exactly that reason.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
With fair voting many bad things would never have happened!
No Thatcher No Brexit.
I am in favour of PR and am pro European. But it is a mistake to say we dont have a fair electoral system. We have an electoral system that of course can be made fairer and more effective, and we should strive towards making it fairer.
The UK has fairer voting and better democracy than the vast majority of the planet. It is fairer than 99%+ of humans who have ever lived have experienced.
We should be proud of that, whilst still looking to make it better.
Former French Europe Minister saying this is the moment and if a few days are needed for a technical extension that woukd be granted but anymore she asks why should the EU have a British Commissioner in the EU
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Whatever happens, people from NI can keep their EU citizenship by obtaining RoI passports, and they don't have to tell the British authorities if they do. Just pick up a form in a post office.
But if FoM stays between NI and RoI, and RoI and EU, does FoM between NI and UK stop? Will we check passports of people coming from NI and do we do that currently?
Boris cant afford to delay a GE..if he does I believe he is toast. After not fulfilling the promise of leaving by Oct 31 then he has only one out and that is a people vs parliament GE. The opposition parties know that so will prevaricate because it will boost their chances. We may have just seen peak Boris.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
What surprises me is that some leavers seem not to have worked out even now that the country is waiting for them to come up with a plan which delivers on the fantasy they outlined in 2016. Three years on and we have finally, in the last month, had an insight into what Brexit actually is. The Johnson deal is the first time we have actually been given any idea of what 'real' Brexit might look like.
The problem is that the Johnson deal is a million miles from the fantasy on the big red bus. It creates a border in our own country and it creates different classes of UK 'citizens' some with more right than others.
It is no wonder that he has been trying to force it through without any scrutiny. It will be interesting to see how it goes with the public. I suspect that many will not see through it until it is too late but those I talk to are pretty clear that it is a really bad deal. So the election may not be as easy as the Tories think.
That is the point. Boris understands the paradox. The aspiration of Brexit is popular; the fact of Brexit will not be.
Boris is not trying to force through Brexit. Boris is trying to force an election before Brexit's economic dislocations sweep Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street, while giving the impression of trying to force Brexit.
I don't buy this. Boris came up with a fair deal (against the odds) and parliament essentially blocked its progress, those saying he should try and push it through have obviously been asleep for the last few months. Do they really think the whipless Tories, Labour rebels and Independents will vote it through at every stage rather than tacking on wrecking amendments?
These actions are incredibly transparent to the public and explain why Boris's deal has such backing from leave voters. A general election may not do much in the way of a Tory majority but it will at least help get rid of the many ex Tories who reneged on their manifesto pledge and only seek to needlessly prolong the Brexit process.
Boris twice tried in September for an election but was knocked back by Jeremy Corbyn (remember CCHQ's chicken meme). Boris wants an election first, and preferably forced by Labour in order to pose as Boris, champion of the people against the elite Brexit-blockers.
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Whatever happens, people from NI can keep their EU citizenship by obtaining RoI passports, and they don't have to tell the British authorities if they do. Just pick up a form in a post office.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Some but not all NI citizens are eligible for Irish passports, with some interesting rule changes recently.
Brexit man is now waving a poster in front of Sky with the words
'Get ready for civil unrest'
He has lost it
A lot of these Brexit nutters want civil unrest so they can say "told you so". What the thickheads don't seem to have worked out is that their hobbyhorse means that there is just as likely to be civil unrest form the other side, who are generally younger and therefore more likely to vent their frustration. Having a 2% lead in a dodgy referendum 3 years ago doesn't cause the other lot to say, "oh I had better not demonstrate because the other lot have won".
We all know that these nutters are a minority. The thing that dismays me is that people who have no intention of causing trouble and probably would be genuinely horrified if anyone on their side started a terror campaign are still keen to raise the spectre of violence. Because, frankly, they hope it silences the dissent. Sadly, there are a few on these pages who are very fond of magnifying and highlighting those extremists, and for that purpose. I am relieved to report that none of my Leave-voting friends and family have ever been that irresponsible, so I think that this place is simply a distillation of the hardcore rather than representative of Leave voters in general.
We had, and still have, quite a few of that ilk on the No side when it comes to Scottish indyrefs - some even invoking the possibility of state violence in the form of military intervention. Whether they are advocating it is another matter, but it's a thin figleaf at the best of times, intentionally worn or not.
39 bodies found in a trailer in Waterglade park in a lorry from Northern Ireland which came through Holyhead. Driver arrested
Shocking, words fail me
That route makes little to no sense as it means the lorry went via Dublin which is surely the long way round.
But no border checks?
Probably. Lorry gets off at Dublin but doesn't go through security as it's catching the next Ferry to Wales - that sounds like a security flaw at Dublin so I wonder how long it's been going on.
Former French Europe Minister saying this is the moment and if a few days are needed for a technical extension that woukd be granted but anymore she asks why should the EU have a British Commissioner in the EU
Looks like the French may cause a real problem
No you need to listen to what she said about a political change . Macron has never threatened to veto an extension if it was needed for an election or second vote .
What he won’t offer is three months for no good reason .
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
There won’t be an election in 2019 I don’t think. A campaign at Christmas would be a farce, so I think we are probably looking at Feb or March. That’s my best guess anyway.
RIchard Burgon wants an election before Christmas and claims Corbyn thinks the same.
So what? Burgon is a moron and Corbyn hasn't been in control of the party for months.
Are you predicting a December election?
Corbyn is the leader isn't he. I think it's 50/50 as to whether a December election happens.
I'm looking at a chart that shows Britain's growth rate only exceeded 2% for a brief period in the last 12 years and otherwise has been consistently below, and sometimes well below, that level. What are you looking at?
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
Fine if your version is correct David , but given nearly all other versions are that it is a disaster I would rather then to go with the majority view rather than your sunny uplands. It may be fine for thos at the top but your average jetsom and flotsom will be under water
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Some but not all NI citizens are eligible for Irish passports, with some interesting rule changes recently.
Something I'm trying to get at: where and how does the UK in this deal stop people from EU going to RoI, into NI and into GB? Will there be checks between RoI and NI, or checks at NI / GB border? Will NI citizens be expected to show a passport to get into GB?
Former French Europe Minister saying this is the moment and if a few days are needed for a technical extension that woukd be granted but anymore she asks why should the EU have a British Commissioner in the EU
Looks like the French may cause a real problem
No you need to listen to what she said about a political change . Macron has never threatened to veto an extension if it was needed for an election or second vote .
What he won’t offer is three months for no good reason .
It's a bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Westminster won't vote for a GE without an extension, and the EU won't give an extension without knowing there's a GE...
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Whatever happens, people from NI can keep their EU citizenship by obtaining RoI passports, and they don't have to tell the British authorities if they do. Just pick up a form in a post office.
But if FoM stays between NI and RoI, and RoI and EU, does FoM between NI and UK stop? Will we check passports of people coming from NI and do we do that currently?
Common travel area gives freedom of movement for UK and Irish citizens between UK and Ireland (also Channel Islands and Isle of Mann, I think). Can need proof of ID (airport checks, though seemed superficial, don't think I've been checked on ferry but may be wrong, land border essentially open as we know). Proof can be driving licence rather than passport, maybe other options, I'm not sure.
I assume that continues, but may need more checks depending on EU-GB travel arrangements.
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
Easy. Section 30 order, win independence, government calls a general election and elects a prime minister. That's what Henry wants I think.
Boris cant afford to delay a GE..if he does I believe he is toast. After not fulfilling the promise of leaving by Oct 31 then he has only one out and that is a people vs parliament GE. The opposition parties know that so will prevaricate because it will boost their chances. We may have just seen peak Boris.
I have no idea how it pans out and I certainly am not in the HYUFD camp of a landslide for Boris but there is no path to Brexit in this HOC
3 month extension is what is written in the Benn letter so it will be given surely by the EU (After some sabre rattling by Macron) ?
Lets hope so and quickly.
Boris will call a GE the minute he has the confirmation and with labour confirming it we will have an election this year
Conservatives
We have the deal and we leave on the 31st December taking no deal off the table
Labour
We will renegotiate a deal with the EU and put it in a referendum and campaign against our deal for remain
Lib Dems
Revoke
Labour are in a very difficult place for an early December election
Except FPTP is not a system that has 3 possible PMs.
It has a binary choice between a hard brexit Tory party that No Deal BXP will be trying to out flank. Or a party offering a 2nd Referendum
Voting for the Revoke Party results in a hard Brexit win.
Morning BJO
Labour's convoluted renegotiate a new deal and put it to a referendum and vote remain against the deal we have just negotiated is far too confusing for most people but of course it could be about to be tested
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
To be honest I feel the same way when Remainers write long rambling articles telling Leavers what they are thinking and why they voted Leave.
Former French Europe Minister saying this is the moment and if a few days are needed for a technical extension that woukd be granted but anymore she asks why should the EU have a British Commissioner in the EU
Looks like the French may cause a real problem
No you need to listen to what she said about a political change . Macron has never threatened to veto an extension if it was needed for an election or second vote .
What he won’t offer is three months for no good reason .
It's a bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Westminster won't vote for a GE without an extension, and the EU won't give an extension without knowing there's a GE...
That’s why the flexible extension suits them . It’s also already within the Benn Act and can be ended early if the deal is ratified.
I have no idea how it pans out and I certainly am not in the HYUFD camp of a landslide for Boris but there is no path to Brexit in this HOC
3 month extension is what is written in the Benn letter so it will be given surely by the EU (After some sabre rattling by Macron) ?
Lets hope so and quickly.
Boris will call a GE the minute he has the confirmation and with labour confirming it we will have an election this year
Conservatives
We have the deal and we leave on the 31st December taking no deal off the table
Labour
We will renegotiate a deal with the EU and put it in a referendum and campaign against our deal for remain
Lib Dems
Revoke
Labour are in a very difficult place for an early December election
Except FPTP is not a system that has 3 possible PMs.
It has a binary choice between a hard brexit Tory party that No Deal BXP will be trying to out flank. Or a party offering a 2nd Referendum
Voting for the Revoke Party results in a hard Brexit win.
Morning BJO
Labour's convoluted renegotiate a new deal and put it to a referendum and vote remain against the deal we have just negotiated is far too confusing for most people but of course it could be about to be tested
Your parody of Labour's position is pretty much David Cameron's position in 2016. I'm not sure which side should be comforted by that particular omen.
I hope Jeremy Corbyn reads PB because my contribution this morning is for him.
“Jeremy. We need to even this up. They have Cummings but you now have me. I’m a match for him because we both work on the fundamental principle that the public are gormless. So let’s war game. There are two GE scenarios that we do NOT want. First, and worst, a GE against Blondie in the first flush of getting his Deal through. That buries us. Second, a bit better but not much, a ‘People vs Parliament’ affair in the current febrile climate with Blondie’s Deal looking frustrated by us. OK, we get some Remainer tactical voting here, but it won’t be enough. He’ll still win. So I hope that’s clear. On no account do we go along with a GE under either of these circumstances. Block block block. I’ll work on some good excuses for the media and the ignorami. They swallow anything from Cummings so they may fall for my shit too.
Now to the positive. What GE scenario DO we want? Again there are two. First, and best, a GE in the aftermath, but not immediate aftermath, of a NO DEAL Brexit. It will be a mess and will have happened on their watch. We can win that. Second, still good, a GE a while from now with Brexit still undelivered and, this is key, with Blondie having off his own bat asked for another extension after 31 Jan. This will expose his macho crap for what it is. Crap. We can win that one too. On strategy, the great news is that it’s the same for either outcome. We prevent both the Deal passing and a GE but we do NOT do another monkey business Surrender Act for 31 Jan. We let Blondie make the decision. Force him to choose between a No Deal and a 'surrender' extension of his own. Between the two scenarios that WE want for a GE. What will he do? Dunno. Probably cave and extend but it doesn’t matter. If we force the Hobson’s choice we might just have the slippery little bastard.”
I have no idea how it pans out and I certainly am not in the HYUFD camp of a landslide for Boris but there is no path to Brexit in this HOC
3 month extension is what is written in the Benn letter so it will be given surely by the EU (After some sabre rattling by Macron) ?
Lets hope so and quickly.
Boris will call a GE the minute he has the confirmation and with labour confirming it we will have an election this year
Conservatives
We have the deal and we leave on the 31st December taking no deal off the table
Labour
We will renegotiate a deal with the EU and put it in a referendum and campaign against our deal for remain
Lib Dems
Revoke
Labour are in a very difficult place for an early December election
Except FPTP is not a system that has 3 possible PMs.
It has a binary choice between a hard brexit Tory party that No Deal BXP will be trying to out flank. Or a party offering a 2nd Referendum
Voting for the Revoke Party results in a hard Brexit win.
Morning BJO
Labour's convoluted renegotiate a new deal and put it to a referendum and vote remain against the deal we have just negotiated is far too confusing for most people but of course it could be about to be tested
It seems like the most reasonable position for the opposition to have.
We will a) negotiate a Brexit deal b) then put that deal to a referendum c) then do what that referendum says. The wibblywobbly bit is whether or not a Labour government would support its own deal, but you can negotiate a deal that you think is better than the current deal whilst still preferring to not leave. I can imagine deals I would accept, but would still prefer staying in the EU. I just think non Labour people are purposefully obfuscating the issue, and Labour are shit at comms.
There won’t be an election in 2019 I don’t think. A campaign at Christmas would be a farce, so I think we are probably looking at Feb or March. That’s my best guess anyway.
RIchard Burgon wants an election before Christmas and claims Corbyn thinks the same.
So what? Burgon is a moron and Corbyn hasn't been in control of the party for months.
Are you predicting a December election?
Corbyn is the leader isn't he. I think it's 50/50 as to whether a December election happens.
I still can't see the gov VoNCing itself. That is literally a vote saying you don't believe your party can govern. All the questions should be "you literally voted that you weren't confident in your ability to govern, what changes?" and if the answer is "the people in 2017 didn't give me the parliament I wanted, so now they need to vote for me" I think you look like an idiot. Getting VoNCd I think would work in Johnson's favour.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
I do wonder how long the Tories will be able to hold on to the argument that the liberal democrat position of revoke is undemocratic given that the Brexit deal that they have negotiated with the EU is so clearly not the Brexit Vote Leave advocated in 2016 (unless someone can point out to me where it was said that Brexit was about dividing the UK into parts with borders within the country and creating different classes of citizens). The reality is that there is no available form of Brexit which meets the criteria of being the Brexit people voted for so the Lib Dems can at least argue that 48% of the people voted for 'remain', while we have no idea how many people wanted the Johnson deal (although I suspect the answer is vanishingly small).
It will be interesting to see the Lib Dem tactics. Personally I wonder if they will try to take the approach that they are the only party that will solve Brexit on day one and be able to move on to the NHS, education and the other priorities which people have in the UK. The reality is that the Labour approach of renegotiate and then recommending rejection of the deal they have done in a referendum will take months and the Tory approach of do the Johnson deal and then move on to negotiations about trade, travel, cooperation on security, the environment etc will take many years. While it may work the Tory campaign strategy of being the party that will 'get Brexit done' may rebound if people see the full implications of what they are actually suggesting.
With the NI front stop, does that mean NI citizens have freedom of movement still? Or will there be immigration checks between RoI and NI? Because if being from NI will get me freedom of movement, may take up my grandmother's heritage...
Some but not all NI citizens are eligible for Irish passports, with some interesting rule changes recently.
Something I'm trying to get at: where and how does the UK in this deal stop people from EU going to RoI, into NI and into GB? Will there be checks between RoI and NI, or checks at NI / GB border? Will NI citizens be expected to show a passport to get into GB?
Flights need ID, as far as I recall. It perhaps wouldn't be too controversial to have checks on ferry crossings either, integrated with boarding pass checks, I guess - UK and RoI nationals waved straight through? Bit more tricky if Boris's bridge ever came to pass as immigration checks there would be very obvious - it's one thing having ID checked to board some form of transport, another having to stop your own car at an immigration post in your own country.
I have no idea how it pans out and I certainly am not in the HYUFD camp of a landslide for Boris but there is no path to Brexit in this HOC
3 month extension is what is written in the Benn letter so it will be given surely by the EU (After some sabre rattling by Macron) ?
Lets hope so and quickly.
Boris will call a GE the minute he has the confirmation and with labour confirming it we will have an election this year
Conservatives
We have the deal and we leave on the 31st December taking no deal off the table
Labour
We will renegotiate a deal with the EU and put it in a referendum and campaign against our deal for remain
Lib Dems
Revoke
Labour are in a very difficult place for an early December election
Except FPTP is not a system that has 3 possible PMs.
It has a binary choice between a hard brexit Tory party that No Deal BXP will be trying to out flank. Or a party offering a 2nd Referendum
Voting for the Revoke Party results in a hard Brexit win.
Morning BJO
Labour's convoluted renegotiate a new deal and put it to a referendum and vote remain against the deal we have just negotiated is far too confusing for most people but of course it could be about to be tested
It seems like the most reasonable position for the opposition to have.
We will a) negotiate a Brexit deal b) then put that deal to a referendum c) then do what that referendum says. The wibblywobbly bit is whether or not a Labour government would support its own deal, but you can negotiate a deal that you think is better than the current deal whilst still preferring to not leave. I can imagine deals I would accept, but would still prefer staying in the EU. I just think non Labour people are purposefully obfuscating the issue, and Labour are shit at comms.
Is there an issue of trust in convincing the great British public that the result of a referendum on Brexit will be implemented?
Boris cant afford to delay a GE..if he does I believe he is toast. After not fulfilling the promise of leaving by Oct 31 then he has only one out and that is a people vs parliament GE. The opposition parties know that so will prevaricate because it will boost their chances. We may have just seen peak Boris.
I think you are right about the dangers of prevarication for the Conservatives. So far Johnson has played his cards well in terms of strengthening support in the country. Once the EU take the decision to extend that has to be his moment, whether by the 2/3rds route, voting for a SNP-tabled VONC in his own government or by resigning the government to bring an immediate VONC. The only caveat would be what to do if the EU granted an extension of only a couple of weeks as opposed to the 3 months in the Benn Act, when I think he would have to try to get another programme motion through resorting to a GE if it failed.
Brexit man is now waving a poster in front of Sky with the words
'Get ready for civil unrest'
He has lost it
A lot of these Brexit nutters want civil unrest so they can say "told you so". What the thickheads don't seem to have worked out is that their hobbyhorse means that there is just as likely to be civil unrest form the other side, who are generally younger and therefore more likely to vent their frustration. Having a 2% lead in a dodgy referendum 3 years ago doesn't cause the other lot to say, "oh I had better not demonstrate because the other lot have won".
We all know that these nutters are a minority. The thing that dismays me is that people who have no intention of causing trouble and probably would be genuinely horrified if anyone on their side started a terror campaign are still keen to raise the spectre of violence. Because, frankly, they hope it silences the dissent. Sadly, there are a few on these pages who are very fond of magnifying and highlighting those extremists, and for that purpose. I am relieved to report that none of my Leave-voting friends and family have ever been that irresponsible, so I think that this place is simply a distillation of the hardcore rather than representative of Leave voters in general.
And yet those same claims to potential violence have shaped both EU and Government policy as far as Brexit is concerned because of the issue if NI.
Remainers are happy enough to use threats of violence in NI to support their fight for a soft or non existent Brexit and yet scream when concerns about the public reaction to revoking are raised. One might call that hypocritical.
I hope Jeremy Corbyn reads PB because my contribution this morning is for him.
“Jeremy. We need to even this up. They have Cummings but you now have me. I’m a match for him because we both work on the fundamental principle that the public are gormless. So let’s war game. There are two GE scenarios that we do NOT want. First, and worst, a GE against Blondie in the first flush of getting his Deal through. That buries us. Second, a bit better but not much, a ‘People vs Parliament’ affair in the current febrile climate with Blondie’s Deal looking frustrated by us. OK, we get some Remainer tactical voting here, but it won’t be enough. He’ll still win. So I hope that’s clear. On no account do we go along with a GE under either of these circumstances. Block block block. I’ll work on some good excuses for the media and the ignorami. They swallow anything from Cummings so they may fall for my shit too.
Now to the positive. What GE scenario DO we want? Again there are two. First, and best, a GE in the aftermath, but not immediate aftermath, of a NO DEAL Brexit. It will be a mess and will have happened on their watch. We can win that. Second, still good, a GE a while from now with Brexit still undelivered and, this is key, with Blondie having off his own bat asked for another extension after 31 Jan. This will expose his macho crap for what it is. Crap. We can win that one too. On strategy, the great news is that it’s the same for either outcome. We prevent both the Deal passing and a GE but we do NOT do another monkey business Surrender Act for 31 Jan. We let Blondie make the decision. Force him to choose between a No Deal and a 'surrender' extension of his own. Between the two scenarios that WE want for a GE. What will he do? Dunno. Probably cave and extend but it doesn’t matter. If we force the Hobson’s choice we might just have the slippery little bastard.”
#fuckbrexitGTTO!
For older readers:
Not a 'Snowflakes' chance in hell that JC reads it.
There won’t be an election in 2019 I don’t think. A campaign at Christmas would be a farce, so I think we are probably looking at Feb or March. That’s my best guess anyway.
RIchard Burgon wants an election before Christmas and claims Corbyn thinks the same.
So what? Burgon is a moron and Corbyn hasn't been in control of the party for months.
Are you predicting a December election?
Corbyn is the leader isn't he. I think it's 50/50 as to whether a December election happens.
I hope Jeremy Corbyn reads PB because my contribution this morning is for him.
“Jeremy. We need to even this up. They have Cummings but you now have me. I’m a match for him because we both work on the fundamental principle that the public are gormless. So let’s war game. There are two GE scenarios that we do NOT want. First, and worst, a GE against Blondie in the first flush of getting his Deal through. That buries us. Second, a bit better but not much, a ‘People vs Parliament’ affair in the current febrile climate with Blondie’s Deal looking frustrated by us. OK, we get some Remainer tactical voting here, but it won’t be enough. He’ll still win. So I hope that’s clear. On no account do we go along with a GE under either of these circumstances. Block block block. I’ll work on some good excuses for the media and the ignorami. They swallow anything from Cummings so they may fall for my shit too.
Now to the positive. What GE scenario DO we want? Again there are two. First, and best, a GE in the aftermath, but not immediate aftermath, of a NO DEAL Brexit. It will be a mess and will have happened on their watch. We can win that. Second, still good, a GE a while from now with Brexit still undelivered and, this is key, with Blondie having off his own bat asked for another extension after 31 Jan. This will expose his macho crap for what it is. Crap. We can win that one too. On strategy, the great news is that it’s the same for either outcome. We prevent both the Deal passing and a GE but we do NOT do another monkey business Surrender Act for 31 Jan. We let Blondie make the decision. Force him to choose between a No Deal and a 'surrender' extension of his own. Between the two scenarios that WE want for a GE. What will he do? Dunno. Probably cave and extend but it doesn’t matter. If we force the Hobson’s choice we might just have the slippery little bastard.”
How would you price up the following scenario: there is a VONC against the government, and it's carried. Corbyn is invited to the palace and is immediately VONCed, and it's carried again. Labour swing behind A. N. Other as PM and a vote of confidence passes. No GE for several months.
According to Britain elects aggregate, both Lab and Cons have gained ~2% each in the last two weeks, to detriment of LDs and BXP. This is... not representative of the way people are talking about things... What gives?
Conservative GE majority has just gone under evens for the first time on Betfair exchange.
Not being into betting what does going under evens mean. Sorry if my question seems naive
Based upon the weight of money from those betting the markets are effectively saying that there is a greater than 50% chance of a Conservative majority.
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
They would need two thirds of MSPs to vote in favour. That's why they can only "call for" an SGE, rather than "call" one. Remind you of any other Parliament?
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
There won’t be an election in 2019 I don’t think. A campaign at Christmas would be a farce, so I think we are probably looking at Feb or March. That’s my best guess anyway.
RIchard Burgon wants an election before Christmas and claims Corbyn thinks the same.
So what? Burgon is a moron and Corbyn hasn't been in control of the party for months.
Are you predicting a December election?
Corbyn is the leader isn't he. I think it's 50/50 as to whether a December election happens.
I would put it at 95% now
Show your working.
My instinct and also media narrative
Hmm. As I thought.
I can't understand it. I went through the same calculations and ended up with 94.4%. I cannot account for the discrepancy.
How would you price up the following scenario: there is a VONC against the government, and it's carried. Corbyn is invited to the palace and is immediately VONCed, and it's carried again. Labour swing behind A. N. Other as PM and a vote of confidence passes. No GE for several months.
0% as that's not how the process works In general, no more than 5% chance of a GNU imo
There won’t be an election in 2019 I don’t think. A campaign at Christmas would be a farce, so I think we are probably looking at Feb or March. That’s my best guess anyway.
RIchard Burgon wants an election before Christmas and claims Corbyn thinks the same.
So what? Burgon is a moron and Corbyn hasn't been in control of the party for months.
Are you predicting a December election?
Corbyn is the leader isn't he. I think it's 50/50 as to whether a December election happens.
I would put it at 95% now
Show your working.
Big G has seen a lot more politics than you.
If he says its 95% for an election then it's 95% for an election.
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
They would need two thirds of MSPs to vote in favour. That's why they can only "call for" an SGE, rather than "call" one. Remind you of any other Parliament?
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
Wonderful. And what would be the point of all this?
The SNP want an election soon. The Lib Dems do not.
I am neither convinced nor impressed by the "we're so clever" reluctance to call for elections that affects a number of opposition parties.
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
I am not convinced of the Labour leadership's wisdom either in having kept such a wreck of a Tory government in office for so long. So what if they would have lost a VONC or even several? Keep on calling them until you win one. Make any independents or "Tory rebels" who back the government look spineless and as if they are standing against the tide.
A few weeks ago a cabinet minister at the despatch box said "Set a date". I don't recall who it was - perhaps it was Geoffrey Cox or maybe it was Boris Johnson himself. He didn't say it with a flourish and perhaps the challenge slipped out without having been prepared. Jeremy Corbyn or whoever was leading for Labour should have jumped to his feet and proposed a date right there and then. Seize the frame the opponent is offering you and say "Here you go - now YOU jump through it."
Almost everyone agrees the government is a shambles, but so far all main parts of the opposition have been doing a cr*p job too. To mix metaphors, the government is a shambles but it's not on its back foot. That's a failure of the opposition, and it's not just down to whether or not as shown in the visual aids they can get 320 souls through the Aye lobby.
I have seen some bollox about Scotland on here but this one takes the biscuit. What complete and utter rubbish. SNP have been running Holyrood for 12 years and are more popular than ever. They will be running Holyrood for forseeable future and will have huge majority of Westminster MP's whilst we are still there. I assume this new Henry C is an M25 refugee and gets nosebleeds beyond Watford and forms his opinions from the Times or even listening to his nanny.
I have no idea how it pans out and I certainly am not in the HYUFD camp of a landslide for Boris but there is no path to Brexit in this HOC
3 month extension is what is written in the Benn letter so it will be given surely by the EU (After some sabre rattling by Macron) ?
Lets hope so and quickly.
Boris will call a GE the minute he has the confirmation and with labour confirming it we will have an election this year
Conservatives
We have the deal and we leave on the 31st December taking no deal off the table
Labour
We will renegotiate a deal with the EU and put it in a referendum and campaign against our deal for remain
Lib Dems
Revoke
Labour are in a very difficult place for an early December election
Except FPTP is not a system that has 3 possible PMs.
It has a binary choice between a hard brexit Tory party that No Deal BXP will be trying to out flank. Or a party offering a 2nd Referendum
Voting for the Revoke Party results in a hard Brexit win.
Morning BJO
Labour's convoluted renegotiate a new deal and put it to a referendum and vote remain against the deal we have just negotiated is far too confusing for most people but of course it could be about to be tested
It seems like the most reasonable position for the opposition to have.
We will a) negotiate a Brexit deal b) then put that deal to a referendum c) then do what that referendum says. The wibblywobbly bit is whether or not a Labour government would support its own deal, but you can negotiate a deal that you think is better than the current deal whilst still preferring to not leave. I can imagine deals I would accept, but would still prefer staying in the EU. I just think non Labour people are purposefully obfuscating the issue, and Labour are shit at comms.
Which to be fair is pretty well what Harold Wilson did. However to sadly misquote someone Jeremy Corby is no Harold Wilson.
I still can't see the gov VoNCing itself. That is literally a vote saying you don't believe your party can govern. All the questions should be "you literally voted that you weren't confident in your ability to govern, what changes?" and if the answer is "the people in 2017 didn't give me the parliament I wanted, so now they need to vote for me" I think you look like an idiot. Getting VoNCd I think would work in Johnson's favour.
The government supporting a VONC in itself amounts to the government saying that it has no confidence that it can get its legislation through the HoC. In present circumstances it would be idiotic and untruthful for the government to claim that it could.
Will we check passports of people coming from NI and do we do that currently?
Common travel area... Proof can be driving licence rather than passport, maybe other options, I'm not sure.
I've relatively recently arrived at Cork from LHR and offered an Oxfordshire old people's bus pass (having a few years earlier tried and succeeded at Dublin with my photo library card).
The charming border agent asked me to bring my driving licence next time - and wished me a pleasant stay in the land of my forefathers.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
The idea Johnson is going to chuck the UK into economic chaos leaving with "No Deal" after say winning an election is absolutely preposterous.
Nearly as preposterous as creating an internal border within the UK
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
They would need two thirds of MSPs to vote in favour. That's why they can only "call for" an SGE, rather than "call" one. Remind you of any other Parliament?
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
I'm gratified to have increased traffic to Google, if only infinitesimally.
Now, what extraordinary question do you think this convoluted and without precedent process would be the answer to?
How would you price up the following scenario: there is a VONC against the government, and it's carried. Corbyn is invited to the palace and is immediately VONCed, and it's carried again. Labour swing behind A. N. Other as PM and a vote of confidence passes. No GE for several months.
If there's a VONC after an extension why would anyone bother replacing Johnson? Why would Lib Dems put him in? They may as well wait 14 days.
The whole point of appointing Corbyn before 31/10 was to ensure no No Deal with a purdah on what he could do. With an extension in place there's no reason for a GNU or Corbyn as temp PM.
Conservative GE majority has just gone under evens for the first time on Betfair exchange.
Not being into betting what does going under evens mean. Sorry if my question seems naive
Based upon the weight of money from those betting the markets are effectively saying that there is a greater than 50% chance of a Conservative majority.
I still can't see the gov VoNCing itself. That is literally a vote saying you don't believe your party can govern. All the questions should be "you literally voted that you weren't confident in your ability to govern, what changes?" and if the answer is "the people in 2017 didn't give me the parliament I wanted, so now they need to vote for me" I think you look like an idiot. Getting VoNCd I think would work in Johnson's favour.
The government supporting a VONC in itself amounts to the government saying that it has no confidence that it can get its legislation through the HoC. In present circumstances it would be idiotic and untruthful for the government to claim that it could.
It is arguing that the government is incapable of the art of the possible, ie politics. There is no small chance of another hung parliament, why should we expect a government that has already announced it cannot work in those conditions should be able to work in another one? Why should we vote for a government that decided to VoNC itself rather than compromise with democratically elected MPs? Why should we vote for a government that has so little confidence in its own ability to work with elected representatives that, instead of doing the constitutionally acceptable thing of telling the Queen to appoint the LOTO as PM and see if he can form a government, it would VoNC itself?
The Remain side similarly took aim at its own foot by saying the main drawback of Brexit was that wages would go up.
Eh? I confess I missed that nugget. Where? Who? When?
It's true - there was an argument going around that business would be hurt by the loss of European workers, driving up costs, with the clear implication of higher wages.
I would be the last to argue that the remain campaign was a masterpiece of strategic accomplishment.
(Their conclusion exonerating Rose is mendacious. The question was “if free movement ends what happens” and Rise replied “X”. Fullfact argues that he did not say X *will* happen because he did not say that immigration *will* fall even though that was the implied premise of the question.)
Conservative GE majority has just gone under evens for the first time on Betfair exchange.
Advance sight of some polling?
The price is dependent on an assessment of when the election is likely to be. The chances of a quick election appear to be rising, which favours the Conservative majority outcome.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
The Remain side similarly took aim at its own foot by saying the main drawback of Brexit was that wages would go up.
Eh? I confess I missed that nugget. Where? Who? When?
Wages will rise if Britain votes to leave the European Union and the number of EU migrants coming to the UK falls, the head of the “in” campaign has admitted.
Lord Rose, the former head of Marks & Spencer who is leading the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign, told MPs on Wednesday that if a British exit leads to restrictions on EU migrants, then “the price of labour will, frankly, go up”.
Bit of a logic glitch there. If there are fewer foreign workers, it might mean that wages go up, but not necessarily that wages for British workers rise. If you take away the foreigners doing low-paid work and replace them with British workers, then the average wages of British workers may fall even if the wages for the low-paid rise somewhat. This is because you have more Brits doing low-paid work than previously (even if it is not quite so low paid).
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
They would need two thirds of MSPs to vote in favour. That's why they can only "call for" an SGE, rather than "call" one. Remind you of any other Parliament?
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
I'm gratified to have increased traffic to Google, if only infinitesimally.
Now, what extraordinary question do you think this convoluted and without precedent process would be the answer to?
How to cure oneself of the habit of throwing unpleasant sarcasm and then expecting to be answered?
That's the first time I've heard "precedent" used to describe a process clearly defined by statute, by the way.
What's "convoluted" about "Let's have an election - are there two-thirds of members in favour?"
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
You have this completely backwards.
The only way No Deal arrives is if nothing is agreed.
Then time runs out and No Deal happens
So if Bozo's deal goes through and, the Tories get a GE majority the strengthened ERG won't be trying to scupper any deal that is brokered during the transition period?
The only reason they are nodding Bozo's deal through is the they can see a better chance of getting a no deal further down the line.
Labour will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the election booth. They will not volunteer to be Christmas turkeys whatever they have said about no-deal being off the table. To get an election the Cons will either have to bite the bullet and vonc their own government or the SNP will have to do it for them.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
The idea Johnson is going to chuck the UK into economic chaos leaving with "No Deal" after say winning an election is absolutely preposterous.
Nearly as preposterous as creating an internal border within the UK
I believe that we could have created a frictionless customs border between the ROI and NI. That being the case, it would be hypocritical to get too worked up about a 'border' within the UK. I'm not delighted about it, but I see the merits, especially with a land bridge between the North and Scotland.
Just been confirmed Vadadkar has agreed to a flexible extension to 31st January
Bingo - GE here we come
(Expect Boris has discussed it with him)
Varadkar needs time to get reunification arrangements in place. However, when it's achieved he'll stand higher in the pantheon of politicians with immigrant backgrounds than De Valera.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
With fair voting many bad things would never have happened!
No Thatcher No Brexit.
It's certainly in some peoples' interests to keep an election system that doesn't adequately represent the people.
Comments
Doing the same thing again and expecting a different result is often used to describe insanity.
This it what Revoke does, but on steroids.
It keeps all the underlying issues of UK discontent of the EU in place
It maintains a semi detached relationship, one which is bound to cause friction
When the core Euro countries act (rightly) in their interests we feel aggrieved
It really is a route to a future of constant bickering.
The only sensible way to stay in EU is to be in the Euro, Shengen and a full committed member. Half in half out as we have been for decades is a position designed to fail through friction.
Oh wait...
The thing that dismays me is that people who have no intention of causing trouble and probably would be genuinely horrified if anyone on their side started a terror campaign are still keen to raise the spectre of violence. Because, frankly, they hope it silences the dissent.
Sadly, there are a few on these pages who are very fond of magnifying and highlighting those extremists, and for that purpose. I am relieved to report that none of my Leave-voting friends and family have ever been that irresponsible, so I think that this place is simply a distillation of the hardcore rather than representative of Leave voters in general.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/20/world/middleeast/erdogan-turkey-nuclear-weapons-trump.html
After not fulfilling the promise of leaving by Oct 31 then he has only one out and that is a people vs parliament GE. The opposition parties know that so will prevaricate because it will boost their chances.
We may have just seen peak Boris.
I've sometimes wondered how many members of the British government will be able to keep their EU citizenship if Britain leaves the EU. Quite a few.
The UK has fairer voting and better democracy than the vast majority of the planet. It is fairer than 99%+ of humans who have ever lived have experienced.
We should be proud of that, whilst still looking to make it better.
It has a binary choice between a hard brexit Tory party that No Deal BXP will be trying to out flank. Or a party offering a 2nd Referendum
Voting for the Revoke Party results in a hard Brexit win.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/14/uk-court-rules-against-derry-woman-in-irish-identity-case
Boris - minus 3
Swinson - minus 27
Corbyn - minus 55
https://twitter.com/Live1819/status/1186931264630263809
What he won’t offer is three months for no good reason .
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5105/economics/long-run-trend-rate-of-growth/
Either an election will be agreed to or Johnson will try and push the WAIB through in the next few weeks .
I assume that continues, but may need more checks depending on EU-GB travel arrangements.
It is very hard to identify possible Lab gains, quite possible to spot LD ones. Outside current Lab held seats voting Lab risks a Tory majority.
Labour's convoluted renegotiate a new deal and put it to a referendum and vote remain against the deal we have just negotiated is far too confusing for most people but of course it could be about to be tested
“Jeremy. We need to even this up. They have Cummings but you now have me. I’m a match for him because we both work on the fundamental principle that the public are gormless. So let’s war game. There are two GE scenarios that we do NOT want. First, and worst, a GE against Blondie in the first flush of getting his Deal through. That buries us. Second, a bit better but not much, a ‘People vs Parliament’ affair in the current febrile climate with Blondie’s Deal looking frustrated by us. OK, we get some Remainer tactical voting here, but it won’t be enough. He’ll still win. So I hope that’s clear. On no account do we go along with a GE under either of these circumstances. Block block block. I’ll work on some good excuses for the media and the ignorami. They swallow anything from Cummings so they may fall for my shit too.
Now to the positive. What GE scenario DO we want? Again there are two. First, and best, a GE in the aftermath, but not immediate aftermath, of a NO DEAL Brexit. It will be a mess and will have happened on their watch. We can win that. Second, still good, a GE a while from now with Brexit still undelivered and, this is key, with Blondie having off his own bat asked for another extension after 31 Jan. This will expose his macho crap for what it is. Crap. We can win that one too. On strategy, the great news is that it’s the same for either outcome. We prevent both the Deal passing and a GE but we do NOT do another monkey business Surrender Act for 31 Jan. We let Blondie make the decision. Force him to choose between a No Deal and a 'surrender' extension of his own. Between the two scenarios that WE want for a GE. What will he do? Dunno. Probably cave and extend but it doesn’t matter. If we force the Hobson’s choice we might just have the slippery little bastard.”
#fuckbrexitGTTO!
We will a) negotiate a Brexit deal b) then put that deal to a referendum c) then do what that referendum says. The wibblywobbly bit is whether or not a Labour government would support its own deal, but you can negotiate a deal that you think is better than the current deal whilst still preferring to not leave. I can imagine deals I would accept, but would still prefer staying in the EU. I just think non Labour people are purposefully obfuscating the issue, and Labour are shit at comms.
(There was a great comic relief skit along these lines)
Remainers are happy enough to use threats of violence in NI to support their fight for a soft or non existent Brexit and yet scream when concerns about the public reaction to revoking are raised. One might call that hypocritical.
Not a 'Snowflakes' chance in hell that JC reads it.
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
In general, no more than 5% chance of a GNU imo
If he says its 95% for an election then it's 95% for an election.
I assume this new Henry C is an M25 refugee and gets nosebleeds beyond Watford and forms his opinions from the Times or even listening to his nanny.
Now, what extraordinary question do you think this convoluted and without precedent process would be the answer to?
The whole point of appointing Corbyn before 31/10 was to ensure no No Deal with a purdah on what he could do. With an extension in place there's no reason for a GNU or Corbyn as temp PM.
"Amusing", thanks, I'll always take that, but IMO the hardball way to go. So deadly serious in that respect.
Labour hold eight high right now - they have to kick the table over and force a re-deal.
https://fullfact.org/europe/what-stuart-rose-actually-said-about-wages-and-leaving-eu/
(Their conclusion exonerating Rose is mendacious. The question was “if free movement ends what happens” and Rise replied “X”. Fullfact argues that he did not say X *will* happen because he did not say that immigration *will* fall even though that was the implied premise of the question.)
Wish we had a mutual friend.
That's the first time I've heard "precedent" used to describe a process clearly defined by statute, by the way.
What's "convoluted" about "Let's have an election - are there two-thirds of members in favour?"
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1186943437419040769
So if Bozo's deal goes through and, the Tories get a GE majority the strengthened ERG won't be trying to scupper any deal that is brokered during the transition period?
The only reason they are nodding Bozo's deal through is the they can see a better chance of getting a no deal further down the line.
Bingo - GE here we come
(Expect Boris has discussed it with him)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-50150993
'What crap do I have to tell these fcukers to get them off my back?'
https://twitter.com/JackElphinstone/status/1186918135510818817?s=20
It's certainly in some peoples' interests to keep an election system that doesn't adequately represent the people.
It would have the same effect as Ken Clarke's suggestion of revoke and reconsider but is less incendiary.