The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
They would need two thirds of MSPs to vote in favour. That's why they can only "call for" an SGE, rather than "call" one. Remind you of any other Parliament?
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
I'm gratified to have increased traffic to Google, if only infinitesimally.
Now, what extraordinary question do you think this convoluted and without precedent process would be the answer to?
Nanny's googling skills probably preclude an answer to that
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
The SNP want an election so long as it's to Westminster, where the FPTP system usually makes a leading party's seat totals exaggerate its voteshare and this applies too to a party which benefits from highly concentrated support in one geographical region. They conduct themselves as if they hold a mandate for another indyref when the reality is that in 2017 their voteshare at Holyrood fell to 37% and they lost their majority. They only won as many votes as they did because there was a kind of continuing euphoria combined with a "we was robbed" feeling among some of their non-core supporters who voted in the Scottish GE when otherwise they would have abstained. (There has always been a lower turnout in Scotland for Holyrood than for Westminster.) The SNP only remain in office because they are propped up by the Greens. They haven't got the guts to call for a Scottish GE. I have never found cowardice pleasant to observe.
It's nice that PB has yet another expert on matters Scotch, the collective wisdom on this subject is unsurpassed.
Can you give a brief breakdown on how the SNP would call for a Scottish GE, and the mechanism required to bring it about?
They would need two thirds of MSPs to vote in favour. That's why they can only "call for" an SGE, rather than "call" one. Remind you of any other Parliament?
The other route would be for the First Minister to resign (off her own bat or because she got VONCed) and nobody to be elected to the office within 28 days.
I'm gratified to have increased traffic to Google, if only infinitesimally.
Now, what extraordinary question do you think this convoluted and without precedent process would be the answer to?
How to cure oneself of the habit of throwing unpleasant sarcasm and then expecting to be answered?
That's the first time I've heard "precedent" used to describe a process clearly defined by statute, by the way.
What's "convoluted" about "Let's have an election - are there two-thirds of members in favour?"
How would you price up the following scenario: there is a VONC against the government, and it's carried. Corbyn is invited to the palace and is immediately VONCed, and it's carried again. Labour swing behind A. N. Other as PM and a vote of confidence passes. No GE for several months.
Corbyn will be invited to the Palace if it is believed he can command a majority in the House.
As far as I am aware it is no more a convention to call on the Leader of the Opposition than another member of the current governing party. The call is based upon the belief of who can command a majority in the House.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
I would bet my shirt there will be little to no frothers willing to put their stupid heads above the parapet and reply to this. The inconvenient fact that the majority of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than those in England seems to have passed them by. Also given the minority higher rate tax payers are relatively happy paying it must also irk them, their projections of a stampede to the promised land having not happened must really annoy them.
What was originally an initial transition period from 29th March 2019 to the end of 2020 (21 months, already implausibly short for negotiating and ratifying an FTA) now seems to have collapsed, if we do get Brexit at the end of January, to 11 months. The extension has to be requested by 30th June. So, on his own plans, Boris would have 5 months to agree an extension.
This is palpably less than the unicorn gestatation period; so why not admit it now? Otherwise we are going to be going through all this do-or-die-followed-by-cave-in psychodrama all over again, and after just a short time.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
The idea Johnson is going to chuck the UK into economic chaos leaving with "No Deal" after say winning an election is absolutely preposterous.
Nearly as preposterous as creating an internal border within the UK
I believe that we could have created a frictionless customs border between the ROI and NI. That being the case, it would be hypocritical to get too worked up about a 'border' within the UK. I'm not delighted about it, but I see the merits, especially with a land bridge between the North and Scotland.
Is that your fantasy brig a Doon , they cannnot fund roads in mainland Scotland yet numpties actually think they would spaff 30 or 40 billion on an impossible bridge. Get real , if you are going to give us tall tales , try at least to make them seem to have a miniscule chance of being real.
How would you price up the following scenario: there is a VONC against the government, and it's carried. Corbyn is invited to the palace and is immediately VONCed, and it's carried again. Labour swing behind A. N. Other as PM and a vote of confidence passes. No GE for several months.
Corbyn will be invited to the Palace if it is believed he can command a majority in the House.
As far as I am aware it is no more a convention to call on the Leader of the Opposition than another member of the current governing party. The call is based upon the belief of who can command a majority in the House.
I may be wrong, but am happy to be corrected.
It was my understanding that under the FTPA a replacement with Confidence has to be found within 14 days after incumbent loses VONC. During that 14 days BJ stays put until replacement with Confidence found. After 14 days with no one getting Confidence GE automatically called.
If BJ resigns then yes - Corbyn would be called. But that's not as a result of a VONC.
Solve by implementing the most stupid option of all?
Doing the same thing again and expecting a different result is often used to describe insanity.
This it what Revoke does, but on steroids.
It keeps all the underlying issues of UK discontent of the EU in place It maintains a semi detached relationship, one which is bound to cause friction When the core Euro countries act (rightly) in their interests we feel aggrieved
It really is a route to a future of constant bickering.
You are, of course, entitled to that opinion and in many ways it would be easier for the EU if the UK was outside. But given that the polls now suggest that the majority of people in the UK think that Brexit was a mistake the idea that the people of the UK will not become increasingly disillusioned with Brexit is, in my opinion, just daft.
Unfortunately the people of the UK have been subjected to decades of being told that the solutions to our problems are easy and that none of them require us to produce goods and services that people round the world want to buy. We just need to blame the EU or bad management or (worse still) foreign management or the poor or the disabled etc,
The leavers have created a new cause which will be present in everything bad that happens in the UK for the foreseeable future. It will all be down to Brexit. Some of that will be fair and some will not but that will not change the way that many choose to talk about it. I am sure that the leavers will complain that it is 'not fair' but then nor was the way in which for decades the EU have been blamed for things which were the responsibility of politicians in the UK. So those who are passionate about Europe will simply pick up the methodology of UKIP and the ERG and turn it against Brexit. Anyone who does not understand that is simply living in cloud cuckoo land.
So the reality is that leaving, particularly leaving with a very bad deal such as the one Johnson has suggested is a route to a future of constant bickering.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
I would bet my shirt there will be little to no frothers willing to put their stupid heads above the parapet and reply to this. The inconvenient fact that the majority of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than those in England seems to have passed them by. Also given the minority higher rate tax payers are relatively happy paying it must also irk them, their projections of a stampede to the promised land having not happened must really annoy them.
Tbf all those higher rate tax payers are probably waiting for a lull in traffic as fleets of vans head to Carlisle to pick up cheap cider.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
I would bet my shirt there will be little to no frothers willing to put their stupid heads above the parapet and reply to this. The inconvenient fact that the majority of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than those in England seems to have passed them by. Also given the minority higher rate tax payers are relatively happy paying it must also irk them, their projections of a stampede to the promised land having not happened must really annoy them.
What was interesting wass all the concern from the London Gmt about the higher rate the officers of the armed services paid in Scotland as a result of being posted there [edit] which I suppose is fair enough.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
With fair voting many bad things would never have happened!
No Thatcher No Brexit.
I am in favour of PR and am pro European. But it is a mistake to say we dont have a fair electoral system. We have an electoral system that of course can be made fairer and more effective, and we should strive towards making it fairer.
The UK has fairer voting and better democracy than the vast majority of the planet. It is fairer than 99%+ of humans who have ever lived have experienced.
We should be proud of that, whilst still looking to make it better.
Yes of course we're good. So we should be, with 330 years of constitutional monarchy, longer than anywhere except perhaps the Netherlands - but not quite that good.
All EU countries except France and the UK use PR. So do New Zealand, Israel, et al.
PR and the resulting need for cross-party cooperation 'across the tribal lines' do seem to lead to very good results. Search online for stable, secure, safe, happy, etc countries and which ones do you repeatedly come up with?
Just been confirmed Vadadkar has agreed to a flexible extension to 31st January
Bingo - GE here we come
(Expect Boris has discussed it with him)
Varadkar needs time to get reunification arrangements in place. However, when it's achieved he'll stand higher in the pantheon of politicians with immigrant backgrounds than De Valera.
I am not at all sure about unification. This deal is good for all Ireland economy but also means that Ireland does not need to take on the much poorer NI.
I expect if this deal goes through matters will settle down as FTA is agreed
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
I would bet my shirt there will be little to no frothers willing to put their stupid heads above the parapet and reply to this. The inconvenient fact that the majority of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than those in England seems to have passed them by. Also given the minority higher rate tax payers are relatively happy paying it must also irk them, their projections of a stampede to the promised land having not happened must really annoy them.
Tbf all those higher rate tax payers are probably waiting for a lull in the fleets of vans heading to Carlisle to pick up cheap cider.
Nobody with that kind of money would ever choose to go anywhere near Carlisle.
I didn’t realize before but one of the pro deal votes of John Mann will disappear next Tuesday when be becomes a Lord .
I had no idea about this. This must be the first time someone has gone directly from the Commons to the Lords for a long time. Maybe Willie Whitelaw in 1983?
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
I would bet my shirt there will be little to no frothers willing to put their stupid heads above the parapet and reply to this. The inconvenient fact that the majority of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than those in England seems to have passed them by. Also given the minority higher rate tax payers are relatively happy paying it must also irk them, their projections of a stampede to the promised land having not happened must really annoy them.
Tbf all those higher rate tax payers are probably waiting for a lull in the fleets of vans heading to Carlisle to pick up cheap cider.
Nobody with that kind of money would ever choose to go anywhere near Carlisle.
Or that cider which is cheap enough to fall foul of the booze price laws.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
With fair voting many bad things would never have happened!
No Thatcher No Brexit.
I am in favour of PR and am pro European. But it is a mistake to say we dont have a fair electoral system. We have an electoral system that of course can be made fairer and more effective, and we should strive towards making it fairer.
The UK has fairer voting and better democracy than the vast majority of the planet. It is fairer than 99%+ of humans who have ever lived have experienced.
We should be proud of that, whilst still looking to make it better.
Yes of course we're good. So we should be, with 330 years of constitutional monarchy, longer than anywhere except perhaps the Netherlands - but not quite that good.
All EU countries except France and the UK use PR. So do New Zealand, Israel, et al.
PR and the resulting need for cross-party cooperation 'across the tribal lines' do seem to lead to very good results. Search online for stable, secure, safe, happy, etc countries and which ones do you repeatedly come up with?
Canada ... where the ruling Liberals believed in PR until they took power.
And of course, it was very fortunate for them atet they reneged, as they lost the popular vote on Monday.
They are only still in power because they didn't do what they said they were going to do !!
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
The idea Johnson is going to chuck the UK into economic chaos leaving with "No Deal" after say winning an election is absolutely preposterous.
Nearly as preposterous as creating an internal border within the UK
I believe that we could have created a frictionless customs border between the ROI and NI. That being the case, it would be hypocritical to get too worked up about a 'border' within the UK. I'm not delighted about it, but I see the merits, especially with a land bridge between the North and Scotland.
Is that your fantasy brig a Doon , they cannnot fund roads in mainland Scotland yet numpties actually think they would spaff 30 or 40 billion on an impossible bridge. Get real , if you are going to give us tall tales , try at least to make them seem to have a miniscule chance of being real.
I'm not telling you anything. I am in favour of a bridge, I think it would usefully serve the UK economy and communities on both sides. £15bn is the figure I have heard. I appreciate costs could rise, but at least a bridge is a fairly well defined project and on sea rather than (for the most part) peoples' gardens.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
Happy to take corrections if a more reliable figure is at hand.
Probably somewhere between the two and possibly nearer your 5% than my 2%. Given it means 55% minimum paying less tax I see it as a good thing even though it costs me personally.
The Brexit Party will thrive - but from Labour Brexiteers heading that way. Boris will still be polling in the high thirties.
Labour are reading this so wrong....
Why do we think this will come at the expense of Labour? Looking at the current aggregate polling trend BXP - Con relationship seems obvious, and a Lab - LD relationship seem clear.
Cons gained ~10% since Johnson elected, BXP loses ~10%. Lab lost ~10% between Euros and Johnson elected, LD gained ~10%. Looking at the trend, the mirroring is obvious. Any BXP gains are likely to come at the expense of the Conservatives, as they only just got those voters back. No significant chunk of current Labour voters are going to go straight to BXP, even if they are Leave leaning.
According to Britain elects aggregate, both Lab and Cons have gained ~2% each in the last two weeks, to detriment of LDs and BXP. This is... not representative of the way people are talking about things... What gives?
People talk about things in all sorts of ways - though some of the commentariat do keep saying the last couple of weeks pushed the electorate towards No deal or Remain. But the polls do seem to say something else.
Johnson DID increase his popularity as a a deal got likelier. So it shouldn't be surprising if, sensing this, a few people switched their intention towards the official Opposition.
In other words, polls aren't confirming the commentariat's attempt to second guess the electorate. The polls, of course, talk to more electors, and select them more scientifically, than the commentariat.
Sky poll leaders nett ratings (satisfied v dissatisfied)
Boris - minus 3
Swinson - minus 27
Corbyn - minus 55
SwoJo is doing well to be barely ahead of Corbyn while still in a honeymoon period
Why do you say SwoJo is 'barely ahead of Corbyn' when she is actually numerically closer to Johnson? I assume you meant, Johnson is doing well to be barely ahead of SwoJo while still in a honeymoon period and before the implications of his Brexit deal have been properly understood?
Seems strange that a UK-EU treaty would fall foul of the ECJ but who knows
If UK government can fall foul of UK SC anything is possible.
The reasoning would effectively render ANY BACKSTOP illegal because a backstop, in any form, would effectively provide a permanent framework for ROI->NI cross border trade in circumstances where NI (as part of the UK) is a non-member.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
Could just be that people are fed up with anybody and everybody , legal , illegal etc being able to get into UK and never having to leave. Far too many for the system to assimilate and hence the issues. Not an issue in Scotland where we could do with many more.
Does the SNP not have a plan for wooing the large number of Scots back who are currently living and working down south?
Yep, they'll tax them more if they come back...
Oh wait...
Who precisely pays more tax?
Any higher rate tax payers due to the SNP keeping the higher rate band at a lower level than in rUK.
It is peanuts , I don't even notice the difference. Given it means lower taxes for the majority I believe it is a very good thing. You never hear anyone on here boasting that all lower tax rate English people pay more than their Scottish counterparts, does not fit the bile. Anyone under 35K or so pays lower tax than equivalent in England.
I would bet my shirt there will be little to no frothers willing to put their stupid heads above the parapet and reply to this. The inconvenient fact that the majority of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than those in England seems to have passed them by. Also given the minority higher rate tax payers are relatively happy paying it must also irk them, their projections of a stampede to the promised land having not happened must really annoy them.
What was interesting wass all the concern from the London Gmt about the higher rate the officers of the armed services paid in Scotland as a result of being posted there [edit] which I suppose is fair enough.
How would you price up the following scenario: there is a VONC against the government, and it's carried. Corbyn is invited to the palace and is immediately VONCed, and it's carried again. Labour swing behind A. N. Other as PM and a vote of confidence passes. No GE for several months.
If there's a VONC after an extension why would anyone bother replacing Johnson? Why would Lib Dems put him in? They may as well wait 14 days.
The whole point of appointing Corbyn before 31/10 was to ensure no No Deal with a purdah on what he could do. With an extension in place there's no reason for a GNU or Corbyn as temp PM.
The hard line leavers want an election because they know it is the only way a No Deal Brexit can be delivered on as little as 35% of the votes with the opposition split.
Once Johnson has an overall majority anything he has said to get there will count for nothing.
So we could end up leaving without a deal based on a government elected on 35% of the votes with every other MP in parliament opposed. That of course will be seen as perfectly "democratic" by some
With a fair electoral system No Deal would have zero chance of ever being agreed.
The idea Johnson is going to chuck the UK into economic chaos leaving with "No Deal" after say winning an election is absolutely preposterous.
Nearly as preposterous as creating an internal border within the UK
I believe that we could have created a frictionless customs border between the ROI and NI. That being the case, it would be hypocritical to get too worked up about a 'border' within the UK. I'm not delighted about it, but I see the merits, especially with a land bridge between the North and Scotland.
Is that your fantasy brig a Doon , they cannnot fund roads in mainland Scotland yet numpties actually think they would spaff 30 or 40 billion on an impossible bridge. Get real , if you are going to give us tall tales , try at least to make them seem to have a miniscule chance of being real.
I'm not telling you anything. I am in favour of a bridge, I think it would usefully serve the UK economy and communities on both sides. £15bn is the figure I have heard. I appreciate costs could rise, but at least a bridge is a fairly well defined project and on sea rather than (for the most part) peoples' gardens.
Fact that experts reckon it will be impossible and even if built would be mainly closed due to weather and that the waters where it is likely to go through are choc a bloc with millions and millions of tons of WWII munitions dumped there by the military. Just another fantasy brought up every now and then to try and pacify the natives. Bit like all those troops that were to move to Scotland if we voted NO , proved to be reductions instead as usual.
What was originally an initial transition period from 29th March 2019 to the end of 2020 (21 months, already implausibly short for negotiating and ratifying an FTA) now seems to have collapsed, if we do get Brexit at the end of January, to 11 months. The extension has to be requested by 30th June. So, on his own plans, Boris would have 5 months to agree an extension.
This is palpably less than the unicorn gestatation period; so why not admit it now? Otherwise we are going to be going through all this do-or-die-followed-by-cave-in psychodrama all over again, and after just a short time.
The mental hurdle for the vast majority of leavers is leaving.
Once parliament votes through a WA then the deed is done and cannot be stopped.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
You are, of course, entitled to that opinion and in many ways it would be easier for the EU if the UK was outside. But given that the polls now suggest that the majority of people in the UK think that Brexit was a mistake the idea that the people of the UK will not become increasingly disillusioned with Brexit is, in my opinion, just daft.
Unfortunately the people of the UK have been subjected to decades of being told that the solutions to our problems are easy and that none of them require us to produce goods and services that people round the world want to buy. We just need to blame the EU or bad management or (worse still) foreign management or the poor or the disabled etc,
The leavers have created a new cause which will be present in everything bad that happens in the UK for the foreseeable future. It will all be down to Brexit. Some of that will be fair and some will not but that will not change the way that many choose to talk about it. I am sure that the leavers will complain that it is 'not fair' but then nor was the way in which for decades the EU have been blamed for things which were the responsibility of politicians in the UK. So those who are passionate about Europe will simply pick up the methodology of UKIP and the ERG and turn it against Brexit. Anyone who does not understand that is simply living in cloud cuckoo land.
So the reality is that leaving, particularly leaving with a very bad deal such as the one Johnson has suggested is a route to a future of constant bickering.
I don't disagree with much of your comment here. Which ever way we go there will be a sizeable chunk of loud and discontented people jumping on each and every bit of bad news, connecting it with our relationship with EU (be that because we are still in or because we are out).
To me Revoke solves no issues and perpetuates and allows others to grow, hence my feeling that if we are to be in I want to be in a full fat close relationship with the EU, as I said earlier this involves membership of Euro, Shengen etc.
If we Leave, then I am a bit ambivalent as to No Deal or Deal, they will both end up after time in similar places following a series of deals and negotiations.
The EU will have an interesting future and it is highly likely that it will not progress as the members and proponents anticipate, as it reacts to pressure from within and without. The larger and closer it is the more difficult it is to react to a 'situation' without causing stress to the organisation. Ultimately this has to result in a further and ratcheting centralisation of powers, which ultimately in xyz number of years will result in it fracturing into its component parts as it has to impose it will on unwilling parts of the Union..
Meeting to sort out the general election timetable I'd think?
Meeting to arrange John Bercow's leaving present. Anything like the programme motion or even an election would be left to the brainboxes in the usual channels, not entrusted to the two leaders famed for their inattention to detail.
Sky poll leaders nett ratings (satisfied v dissatisfied)
Boris - minus 3 Swinson - minus 27 Corbyn - minus 55
I've only got figures back to the 70s, but there have only been two elections with that sort of gap in net leader approval (83 and 97).
As others have pointed out, the relationship between that and results is pretty strong - it points to around 16%/17% gap between the parties in an election, and a solid three figure majority.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
Sky poll leaders nett ratings (satisfied v dissatisfied)
Boris - minus 3
Swinson - minus 27
Corbyn - minus 55
SwoJo is doing well to be barely ahead of Corbyn while still in a honeymoon period
Why do you say SwoJo is 'barely ahead of Corbyn' when she is actually numerically closer to Johnson? I assume you meant, Johnson is doing well to be barely ahead of SwoJo while still in a honeymoon period and before the implications of his Brexit deal have been properly understood?
Are those figures from the whole electorate rather than the relevant party, in which case most people would give politicians from rival parties negative scores.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
The "sick of us" argument was never convincing because, apart from Ireland, the mayor of Calais and a handful of EU apparatchiks who are probably glad of the work, there is not much for them to do on a day-to-day basis, and even if they are, it is better on balance for them if Britain stays in.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
Sad to think this man used to be a successful broadcaster.
He was one of my favourite reporters a few years back.
Boris or Gavin Esler?
Esler. And presenting Newsnight.
I have been immensely impressed with Evan Davis as Newsnight presenter. I may not agree with his stated politics but I do feel he achieves an admirable balance in the programme, asks the right questions and has a presenting manner which to be honest I could listen to all day.
Considering how much I was concerned when he was first mooted as a presenter on the programme, I have been very pleasantly surprised to be proved wrong.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
Didn't May lose lots of her backbenchers for negotiating with Corbyn? Wonder how this will go down...
It will go down just fine. They're meeting to discuss how much time is spent debating this, not to reach a compromise both agree on for a softer-than-Andrex Brexit.
Sad to think this man used to be a successful broadcaster.
He was one of my favourite reporters a few years back.
Boris or Gavin Esler?
Esler. And presenting Newsnight.
I have been immensely impressed with Evan Davis as Newsnight presenter. I may not agree with his stated politics but I do feel he achieves an admirable balance in the programme, asks the right questions and has a presenting manner which to be honest I could listen to all day.
Considering how much I was concerned when he was first mooted as a presenter on the programme, I have been very pleasantly surprised to be proved wrong.
Well it's a matter of taste, but I find his giggling, his umming and erring, and his talking as if 'down with the kids' on the radio pm show quite irritating.
What was originally an initial transition period from 29th March 2019 to the end of 2020 (21 months, already implausibly short for negotiating and ratifying an FTA) now seems to have collapsed, if we do get Brexit at the end of January, to 11 months. The extension has to be requested by 30th June. So, on his own plans, Boris would have 5 months to agree an extension.
This is palpably less than the unicorn gestatation period; so why not admit it now? Otherwise we are going to be going through all this do-or-die-followed-by-cave-in psychodrama all over again, and after just a short time.
Many reasons. 1. If he admits it now he upsets the ERG. 2. If there's a general election before next June then he might have a majority of Conservative MPs willing to back him for a No Deal departure at the end of 2020. 3. If Parliament forces him into the extension then he can blame them for it. 4. He may yet be able to repeat his speedy deal trick by conceding to the EU on most points with the exception of one or two that would otherwise most upset the ERG. So, maybe sacrifice fisheries in exchange for weaker regulatory alignment, as part of a zero tariff no quota FTA.
This could indeed be the true Brexit breakthrough moment. Initiated, rather bemusingly, by Corbyn last night who was statesmanlike and dignified. I think Corbyn would quite like Brexit put to bed.
The question though is whether Johnson will stomach amendments. As he's not really a Brexiteer and the only things he's passionate about are himself and other people's wives (in that order) the answer I think will be 'yes.' He'll get it done, just not quite on his terms and not quite in his timescale. Corbyn will be able to point out that he nudged the whole thing along when it was stuck and both might save face.
And the General Election will then be next year at the earliest and will have nothing to do with Brexit.
Two years of 1.5% contraction followed by eight years of 2% growth So yes, in fact, a 0.68% reduction in growth over ten years is pretty similar to a severe recession followed by 8 years of "normal" growth.
Sorry I missed this reply. I'd define a severe recession as more than a 1.5% contraction for 2 years. In addition, the impact of a severe recession is considerably more in human terms than the equivalent slower overall growth.
I watched that live and at the time it felt like a faux pas. He mistook the notorious 'Patel smirk' for an actual smile. In fact it is her permanent expression when not speaking. She would look like that on being told her hamster had died. It's odd but is not something for which she should be attacked because - unlike the million and one other things she is guilty of - she can't help it.
We are going absolutely nowhere are we this morning?
There seems to be a standoff between the government who don't want to suggest a date for the extension to the EU that ties in with a specific purpose (eg extend to Nov 30th for us to ratify the deal) and the EU who don't want to be cast in the role of telling Britain what to do.
Comments
https://oxfamapps.org/sicembed/embed.html
Happy to take corrections if a more reliable figure is at hand.
noun
noun: precedent; plural noun: precedents
/ˈprɛsɪd(ə)nt/
an earlier event or action that is regarded as an example or guide to be considered in subsequent similar circumstances.
As far as I am aware it is no more a convention to call on the Leader of the Opposition than another member of the current governing party. The call is based upon the belief of who can command a majority in the House.
I may be wrong, but am happy to be corrected.
I am not convinced it will be a majority but over 50% does seem about right
This is palpably less than the unicorn gestatation period; so why not admit it now? Otherwise we are going to be going through all this do-or-die-followed-by-cave-in psychodrama all over again, and after just a short time.
Labour are reading this so wrong....
If BJ resigns then yes - Corbyn would be called. But that's not as a result of a VONC.
philiph
Solve by implementing the most stupid option of all?
Doing the same thing again and expecting a different result is often used to describe insanity.
This it what Revoke does, but on steroids.
It keeps all the underlying issues of UK discontent of the EU in place
It maintains a semi detached relationship, one which is bound to cause friction
When the core Euro countries act (rightly) in their interests we feel aggrieved
It really is a route to a future of constant bickering.
You are, of course, entitled to that opinion and in many ways it would be easier for the EU if the UK was outside. But given that the polls now suggest that the majority of people in the UK think that Brexit was a mistake the idea that the people of the UK will not become increasingly disillusioned with Brexit is, in my opinion, just daft.
Unfortunately the people of the UK have been subjected to decades of being told that the solutions to our problems are easy and that none of them require us to produce goods and services that people round the world want to buy. We just need to blame the EU or bad management or (worse still) foreign management or the poor or the disabled etc,
The leavers have created a new cause which will be present in everything bad that happens in the UK for the foreseeable future. It will all be down to Brexit. Some of that will be fair and some will not but that will not change the way that many choose to talk about it. I am sure that the leavers will complain that it is 'not fair' but then nor was the way in which for decades the EU have been blamed for things which were the responsibility of politicians in the UK. So those who are passionate about Europe will simply pick up the methodology of UKIP and the ERG and turn it against Brexit. Anyone who does not understand that is simply living in cloud cuckoo land.
So the reality is that leaving, particularly leaving with a very bad deal such as the one Johnson has suggested is a route to a future of constant bickering.
But I don't recall any move to deal with the squaddies paying more tax furth of Scotland than they would here in Scotland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-47720303
All EU countries except France and the UK use PR.
So do New Zealand, Israel, et al.
PR and the resulting need for cross-party cooperation 'across the tribal lines' do seem to lead to very good results. Search online for stable, secure, safe, happy, etc countries and which ones do you repeatedly come up with?
I expect if this deal goes through matters will settle down as FTA is agreed
And of course, it was very fortunate for them atet they reneged, as they lost the popular vote on Monday.
They are only still in power because they didn't do what they said they were going to do !!
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
Cons gained ~10% since Johnson elected, BXP loses ~10%. Lab lost ~10% between Euros and Johnson elected, LD gained ~10%. Looking at the trend, the mirroring is obvious. Any BXP gains are likely to come at the expense of the Conservatives, as they only just got those voters back. No significant chunk of current Labour voters are going to go straight to BXP, even if they are Leave leaning.
But the polls do seem to say something else.
Johnson DID increase his popularity as a a deal got likelier. So it shouldn't be surprising if, sensing this, a few people switched their intention towards the official Opposition.
In other words, polls aren't confirming the commentariat's attempt to second guess the electorate. The polls, of course, talk to more electors, and select them more scientifically, than the commentariat.
How funny that would be!!
- Gavin Esler
- Robert Peston
- Shelagh Fogerty
- Paul Mason
- Sir Michael Smithson
Once parliament votes through a WA then the deed is done and cannot be stopped.
The nuances of the FTA will be of little import.
To me Revoke solves no issues and perpetuates and allows others to grow, hence my feeling that if we are to be in I want to be in a full fat close relationship with the EU, as I said earlier this involves membership of Euro, Shengen etc.
If we Leave, then I am a bit ambivalent as to No Deal or Deal, they will both end up after time in similar places following a series of deals and negotiations.
The EU will have an interesting future and it is highly likely that it will not progress as the members and proponents anticipate, as it reacts to pressure from within and without. The larger and closer it is the more difficult it is to react to a 'situation' without causing stress to the organisation. Ultimately this has to result in a further and ratcheting centralisation of powers, which ultimately in xyz number of years will result in it fracturing into its component parts as it has to impose it will on unwilling parts of the Union..
I've only got figures back to the 70s, but there have only been two elections with that sort of gap in net leader approval (83 and 97).
As others have pointed out, the relationship between that and results is pretty strong - it points to around 16%/17% gap between the parties in an election, and a solid three figure majority.
So …. Labour to row back on an election now?
I won't have representation in parliament !
They will give us another extension
I wanna be in the room where it happens...
Considering how much I was concerned when he was first mooted as a presenter on the programme, I have been very pleasantly surprised to be proved wrong.
From memory when he started talking to May there was a bit of an uproar that he didn't take Starmer with him to the meeting.
1. If he admits it now he upsets the ERG.
2. If there's a general election before next June then he might have a majority of Conservative MPs willing to back him for a No Deal departure at the end of 2020.
3. If Parliament forces him into the extension then he can blame them for it.
4. He may yet be able to repeat his speedy deal trick by conceding to the EU on most points with the exception of one or two that would otherwise most upset the ERG. So, maybe sacrifice fisheries in exchange for weaker regulatory alignment, as part of a zero tariff no quota FTA.
The question though is whether Johnson will stomach amendments. As he's not really a Brexiteer and the only things he's passionate about are himself and other people's wives (in that order) the answer I think will be 'yes.' He'll get it done, just not quite on his terms and not quite in his timescale. Corbyn will be able to point out that he nudged the whole thing along when it was stuck and both might save face.
And the General Election will then be next year at the earliest and will have nothing to do with Brexit.
Do it boys.
https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1186953068467965952?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8097/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-people-will-speak/p1