I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.
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Can you give examples of the Tory “lurch to the right”? It seems a fairly moderate, fiscally expansionist government - some silly rhetoric from Patel but not much action
Patel is without a majority at the moment. Many shudder to think what would happen if she got her hands on one. I see this as an authoritarian nationalist government in waiting.
You sound a bit like those American politicians in the 50s that saw a Red hiding behind every corner. It's absurd to think Boris will be leading an "authoritarian nationalist" government.
Boris is an incompetant figurehead.
Dominic Cummings is the actual leader, and he certainly is authoritarian and at least a Russian nationalist.
Cummings is of course also totally incompetant (sic) which is one of the reasons we’re in this mess.
After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.
The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose.
We had all this in 2017. All this talk of Mrs May winning hitherto 'unthinkable' seats in Labour heartlands.
It's rubbish, in my opinion.
Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
The fabled images of the Tory battle bus driving past the angel of the north are an amusing memory
Well Johnson isn't going to rock up in Leeds fucking East !!!
I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China. .
I'll go on the record to say anyone deluding themselves they've got an FTA with China should be confined to an asylum.
Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
Western policy (overall) will be increasingly focussed on containing China, i think, which, if smart, will pull India into its orbit as well.
Xi Jinping is taking China to a very dark place. We can help by stopping buying (currently on WTO rules) their pointless plastic shite.
India and China are likely to remain avowed competitors; I don’t see much of a route to China pulling India ‘into its orbit’. And containing China is going to be exceptionally difficult. They are no longer dependent of plastic shite, increasingly focused on their domestic market, and aside from a handful of technologies pretty well up with the best the west of western science.
Learning how to live with a wholly undemocratic one of two world superpowers is the challenge.
Sorry, I meant the West pulling India into *its* orbit.
India is very concerned about the rise of China too and, for all its faults, is actually a democracy.
I hope Boris continues with the bill but if a customs union or referendum get attached take down the bill and seek an election
Of course no 10 may have decided the HOC is too polarised to pass anything and a GE on 'lets get this done and we leave on the 31st December' with a deal so no deal is gone is a very powerful message alongside a manifesto based on the QS
I think the deal goes through even if a few Labour MPs drop support . However it’s what the bill ends up looking like that maybe an issue for Johnson .
Even if he says in an election don’t worry give me a majority and I’ll remove the bits I don’t like will that message get through and what will the Brexit Party do .
Surely there would only be a November/December election if Brexit hasn't happened.
While publicly tories say then want an election privately many tory MPs don’t. In Scotland the headline has not changed. The country thinks brexit is a shambles and blames the tories. Don’t see how this will change before next election. I was trying to think under what scenario I might vote Tory and came up with none. If I don’t vote Tory as a party member then who will.
I’ll go on the record to say one FTA I *don’t* want is one with China. .
I'll go on the record to say anyone deluding themselves they've got an FTA with China should be confined to an asylum.
Starting with the deranged former Australian PM, Tony Abbott. - who clearly can't tell the difference between real free trade (such as the UK enjoys with our 27 nearest neighbours) and the perpetual economic vassalage to with Xi Jinping he lumbered his country with.
Western policy (overall) will be increasingly focussed on containing China, i think, which, if smart, will pull India into its orbit as well.
Xi Jinping is taking China to a very dark place. We can help by stopping buying (currently on WTO rules) their pointless plastic shite.
India and China are likely to remain avowed competitors; I don’t see much of a route to China pulling India ‘into its orbit’. And containing China is going to be exceptionally difficult. They are no longer dependent of plastic shite, increasingly focused on their domestic market, and aside from a handful of technologies pretty well up with the best the west of western science.
Learning how to live with a wholly undemocratic one of two world superpowers is the challenge.
Sorry, I meant the West pulling India into *its* orbit.
India is very concerned about the rise of China too and, for all its faults, is actually a democracy.
Agreed. China is a problem the west hasn't really started to figure out - which is not helped by having the current incumbent in the White House.
That thread is very interesting, and well referenced. We know BoZo doesn't do detail, but possibly he simply doesn't understand what he is pushing through.
Watching him bluster and fail over this during an election campaign could be quite amusing.
That's a decent thread, which demonstrates the line that 'we've discussed all this ad nauseam and therefore everyone knows what's in the bill' is simply untrue.
As was also clear from ministerial contributions during the debate, the government doesn't appear fully cognisant of the bill's implications either.
Does the electoral register have information on those under 17? I thought it only held details of those who would become 18 during the term of the next register? Can 16 and 17 year olds actually get a vote in December even if that law is passed?
That thread is very interesting, and well referenced. We know BoZo doesn't do detail, but possibly he simply doesn't understand what he is pushing through.
Watching him bluster and fail over this during an election campaign could be quite amusing.
We know a bit of what that will looks like from that mad week in September when he thought he'd engineered an election. He's going to have to up his game a lot to survive a full campaign.
Roll on a GE. I don't like Boris , but I want to see Corbyn's idea of Labour destroyed .
Labour will squeeze the vote hard as they did before. Even more that 2017 this will be the Brexit election. I shall probably vote LD but it's a safe seat and doesn't matter, whereas a lot of people will know if they dont back labour Tories win and we definitely brexit. This time thered be no second chance.
Great thread CycleFree - while much has been made of the Leaver's failure to coalesce around a plan, I wonder if history will be unkind too to Remainers who rather than try to reverse the result could have built a consensus for the post-Brexit relationship. Now all we have is a dialogue of the deaf.
Completely OT - browsing Canadian media - two stories stood out - the British family which "accidentally" drove into the US had $16,000 in cash on them:
And the Trans-Activist who sued ethnic minority Home Beauty salon owners for failing to provide a 'full Brazilian" had her case chucked out and was ordered to pay costs:
I think the deal goes through even if a few Labour MPs drop support . However it’s what the bill ends up looking like that maybe an issue for Johnson .
Even if he says in an election don’t worry give me a majority and I’ll remove the bits I don’t like will that message get through and what will the Brexit Party do .
Hence the pause. The man is spooked, and loss after loss in the house has left him lacking in confidence of eking it out. Theres 10-12 who are not firm yes votes who he needs without alienating his freshly United side.
He knows that's tough and needed the pressure of a lack of time to force them. Seems like hed rather takes gamble on the polls. May redux.
I put money on a December GE last night. I cannot see how Corbyn can continue to resist once No Deal is taken off the table.
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Can you give examples of the Tory “lurch to the right”? It seems a fairly moderate, fiscally expansionist government - some silly rhetoric from Patel but not much action
Patel is without a majority at the moment. Many shudder to think what would happen if she got her hands on one. I see this as an authoritarian nationalist government in waiting.
You sound a bit like those American politicians in the 50s that saw a Red hiding behind every corner. It's absurd to think Boris will be leading an "authoritarian nationalist" government.
Does the electoral register have information on those under 17? I thought it only held details of those who would become 18 during the term of the next register? Can 16 and 17 year olds actually get a vote in December even if that law is passed?
Boris is pursuing the right strategy to keep the Leaver coalition together, deliver Brexit and get a Deal that ends free movement and enables us to pursue our own free trade deals first.
Then pursue a populist agenda easing back on the austerity of the Cameron years with more money for the NHS and the police and a higher minimum wage and Priti Patel talking tougher on crime than the Coalition did to please working class voters while still having a more pro tax cut agenda thsn May did to appease middle class voters
I`m confused over talk about a bill to circumvent FTPA.
I assumed that they would go for a FTPA 2/3 majority (same as when they tried this twice already, but this time LAB/LD/SNP pledge to support).
It is believed that Labour don't want an election - as they can make the changes they want in the Brexit bill as it is.
Now I don't know how much mileage there is in that logic but its possible they could add a custom unions amendment and try to force it through.
As for the Tories in Scotland - they are likely to retain 1 seat at most - so delaying the election keeps them in work.
I think it would be hilarious if we end up in a situation where Labour are the ones trying to enforce the Brexit deal (amended) and the Conservatives are blocking Brexit.
Maybe FTAs with any country or grouping that is bigger than the UK would be likely to result in a better deal for the larger player simply because they have more clout. So don't you feel the same way about the US and the EU?
This brings us to the nub of the whole Brexit problem.
If we're in the EU, we're the second biggest player, may well be the biggest (both by pop and by economy) in 20 years, and in any case will be one of the six (GB, F, D, I, PL, ES) that drive the Union.
If we're out of the EU, we risk getting shafted by it as much as by the Americans and Chinese and by as much as the Indians and Russians would like to if they could.
Which is why, for all its faults, it's infinitely better to be in the EU's tent pissing out at the rest than outside getting pissed on by it and the other fuckers.
If it was an English nationalist project it would be straight to No Deal with troops sent to Northern Ireland to enforce a hard border with the Republic and to Scotland to enforce a ban on indyref2
I know this comes as a shock to the ERG types but the EU was never of interest to most people in this country. We had an occasional laugh at their expense, often about over-zealous protection of rights or butter mountains and bureaucracy or apparently inebriated commissioners. But generally it was of little or no interest.
Brexit has vexed people but that's mainly because it has dragged on and on and on....
It might come as as a shock to you, but that all applies to politics in general.
After all his blustering about a Deal he wasn’t one of the 19 Labour rebels and voted against it at second reading.
The Labour 19, or at least those not planning to retire, are in the same boat. They represent Leave areas, but are very unlikely to pick up enough Leave voters to make up for the Remain voters they will lose.
We had all this in 2017. All this talk of Mrs May winning hitherto 'unthinkable' seats in Labour heartlands.
It's rubbish, in my opinion.
Once Labour remind their voters of the slouching JRM and the Bullingdon club Boris together with issues that they really care about, there will be very little movement in Labour leave areas. And any that really do want to ditch Labour won't vote tory. They will vote BXP.
The fabled images of the Tory battle bus driving past the angel of the north are an amusing memory
Does the electoral register have information on those under 17? I thought it only held details of those who would become 18 during the term of the next register? Can 16 and 17 year olds actually get a vote in December even if that law is passed?
The man is spooked, and loss after loss in the house has left him lacking in confidence of eking it out.
Again, yes, but maybe no...
He always makes grand claims, and they are always bluster and bullshit.
It's not at all clear that this latest failure to deliver on one of his grand promises has dented his confidence at all.
He said he wouldn't send the letter, but he did, because he couldn't defeat the law.
He said we were leaving next week, but we're not because he can't defeat the parliamentary numbers.
I expect him to make another wild claim today, and for his fanbois to cheer him to the echo
Point taken, but its hard to spin things here - either he goes for a GE, succeeds and the bill awaits the outcome, or he tries for a GE and fails, or hes lying about trying for a GE. Either way the bill is no easier pass.
I think he knows this week was its last chance ahead if an election. The ex cons and a few of the labour backers will find something that will justify reversal.
Good Article @Cyclefree, it is hard to see how Conservatives can keep the Brexit coalition together. It seems obvious to me that it is the free trading Atlanticists that control the party, and it is the small c conservatives in Shires and old coalfields that are going to get shafted again.
Rubbish, otherwise there would be more austerity from.Boris and we would be staying in the Single Market with free movement
Can 16 and 17 year olds actually get a vote in December even if that law is passed?
Yes - if we pass a law at the same time allowing them to register. Hopelessly impractical, of course - but even discussing it will add another few weeks to the debate. And that's the point of Clark's "amendment" argument.
If you're a minority government, the idea you can get your way by one-line bills is as deluded as fantasising that the sexpest is a competent politician.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
My worst fear of no deal is off the table . Johnson now owns this deal , says it’s a great deal so can hardly say now he’s going to go into an election on no deal .
And I think he keeps a swathe of Tory Remainers who might be more worried about Corbyn than Brexit but who might have been spooked by no deal .
Not sure what happens with the Brexit Party , they might still take a small chunk of Leave voters but perhaps the people one would hope would be twigging onto the fact that bar the UK severing all contact with the EU and becoming a European Pariah State nothing would be good enough for them.
IDS on radio 4 suggesting the gov may need to VONC in itself. This seems very possible to me, with agreement from SNP and LibDems (who want an election) will produce 50% + for it to pass.
If this happens, this needs an additional 14 days and assuming no alternative gov is formed we are into a 2020 election. Too late for 12/19, which is good for my bets!
Good Article @Cyclefree, it is hard to see how Conservatives can keep the Brexit coalition together. It seems obvious to me that it is the free trading Atlanticists that control the party, and it is the small c conservatives in Shires and old coalfields that are going to get shafted again.
Rubbish, otherwise there would be more austerity from.Boris and we would be staying in the Single Market with free movement
The shafting is post Brexit, not before. Obviously.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
In terms of economics, yes. I wonder though if the damage to political trust and realignment around ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ will leave longer lasting scars.
@HYUFD how are you going to increase spending and lower taxes without increasing the deficit?
Please answer without using the phrase “laffer curve”.
By the laffer curve of course but Boris does not care about deficits, he is a Reagan or Berlusconi or George W Bush populist conservative anyway. Plus Corbyn does not care about deficits either anyway
IDS on radio 4 suggesting the gov may need to VONC in itself. This seems very possible to me, with agreement from SNP and LibDems (who want al election) will produce 50% + for it to pass.
If this happens, this needs an additional 14 days and assuming no alternative gov is formed we are into a 2020 election. Too late for 12/19, which is good for my bets!
The campaign wouldn't really be able to begin until the second week of January, which means polling day would have to be in February.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
In terms of economics, yes. I wonder though if the damage to political trust and realignment around ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ will leave longer lasting scars.
That is a concern. This has been divisive, no question and idiots on both sides have played fast and loose with our institutions and conventions. Healing will take time.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
"harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa" Freudian slip?
Can 16 and 17 year olds actually get a vote in December even if that law is passed?
Yes - if we pass a law at the same time allowing them to register. Hopelessly impractical, of course - but even discussing it will add another few weeks to the debate. And that's the point of Clark's "amendment" argument.
If you're a minority government, the idea you can get your way by one-line bills is as deluded as fantasising that the sexpest is a competent politician.
Yet again to all the Baldricks ...
I'm no fan of Boris, but it is deluded to think that all these cunning plans are not having an effect.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
In general, I agree, things are rarely as bad as they seem or as good as they seem.
The damage from Brexit will be a slow corrosion and rusting rather than explosion, with HMS UK progressively less sea worthy.
I think @Cyclefree is making the point that failure to deliver sunlit uplands has electoral consequences.
IDS on radio 4 suggesting the gov may need to VONC in itself. This seems very possible to me, with agreement from SNP and LibDems (who want al election) will produce 50% + for it to pass.
If this happens, this needs an additional 14 days and assuming no alternative gov is formed we are into a 2020 election. Too late for 12/19, which is good for my bets!
The campaign wouldn't really be able to begin until the second week of January, which means polling day would have to be in February.
The VONC route is fraught. If the Conservatives do it to themselves then Corbyn might be PM of his own minority Gov't.
The problem with this sort of analysis is that it massively overstates the impact of Brexit. The sad truth, despite all the sound, fury and division of the last 3 years is that we will barely notice.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
"harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa" Freudian slip?
You're going to have to explain that one. I simply mean it will be slightly harder for Brits to work in the EU too. Oh got it now. Sorry a bit slow this morning.
Nicely argued header, but the problem is the MPs. Why an extension? Nothing will be passed because a majority of MPs are against the whole concept. They need more time to read it? They don't. The people who matter in the parties were commenting on it within minutes.
Most will only skim read it as they will vote as ordered - whatever it said. It is a delay as a show of strength only. They will push through a series of amendments and the EU will only accept them if it becomes BINO.
The worst aspect Is they aren't really pretending any more. The voters will have to put up with it because they are powerless, and they're stupid anyway. The MPs have stopped making excuses for their actions. Too busy whining that no one likes them.
Their cunning plan. Pretend to accept the result, but delay and prevaricate at every opportunity. Vote against everything. Complain about the uncertainty. Then when enough time has passed, claim everyone's changed their mind. If the polls don't move, rinse and repeat.
I ask again. Why keep extending? No one answers but soon they will. The next stage is to admit their cunning plan and justify it by saying "We know better." or "We told you so."
Why then, ever have a referendum? Sorry, Scots, your missed the boat.
Great thread CycleFree - while much has been made of the Leaver's failure to coalesce around a plan, I wonder if history will be unkind too to Remainers who rather than try to reverse the result could have built a consensus for the post-Brexit relationship. Now all we have is a dialogue of the deaf.
Completely OT - browsing Canadian media - two stories stood out - the British family which "accidentally" drove into the US had $16,000 in cash on them:
And the Trans-Activist who sued ethnic minority Home Beauty salon owners for failing to provide a 'full Brazilian" had her case chucked out and was ordered to pay costs:
I know this comes as a shock to the ERG types but the EU was never of interest to most people in this country. We had an occasional laugh at their expense, often about over-zealous protection of rights or butter mountains and bureaucracy or apparently inebriated commissioners. But generally it was of little or no interest.
Brexit has vexed people but that's mainly because it has dragged on and on and on.
Corbyn won't talk much about Brexit. It bores him. I think in this regard he will really hit a spot.
In Scotland, x10. It'll be interesting to see how SCons going full Brexitloon will go down with punters.
Only for as long as it's off the Parliamentary agenda. If it comes back, which Labour might very well see as their wisest course of action, then Johnson owns neither the content nor the timing.
I think Labour could play a very astute game here by SO24-ing the bill back into committee stage and tabling their amendments. It would stymie the idea of them blocking Brexit. If they played a full hand they might even attach their PV at the end of it.
p.s. Ken Clarke and Jeremy Corbyn last night were more-or-less saying the same thing on this.
If it was an English nationalist project it would be straight to No Deal with troops sent to Northern Ireland to enforce a hard border with the Republic and to Scotland to enforce a ban on indyref2
That’s a revealing comment given those are your own views.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
BoJo's cunning plan was to set MPs against Parliament and have an election on who runs the country. Is it working? Around here it's working with a vengeance. and looking at the national polls, it is working.
Only for as long as it's off the Parliamentary agenda. If it comes back, which Labour might very well see as their wisest course of action, then Johnson owns neither the content nor the timing.
I think Labour could play a very astute game here by SO24-ing the bill back into committee stage and tabling their amendments. It would stymie the idea of them blocking Brexit. If they played a full hand they might even attach their PV at the end of it.
p.s. Ken Clarke and Jeremy Corbyn last night were more-or-less saying the same thing on this.
This is actually the most democratic route, from the perspective of parliamentary democracy.
Does the electoral register have information on those under 17? I thought it only held details of those who would become 18 during the term of the next register? Can 16 and 17 year olds actually get a vote in December even if that law is passed?
Good article. Strikes me that when you appreciate the disparate nature of the leave coalition then the Remain position is actually the national compromise.
@HYUFD how are you going to increase spending and lower taxes without increasing the deficit?
Please answer without using the phrase “laffer curve”.
Nobody, least of all Boris and his dick riders, gives a fuck about how anything is going to be paid for any more. Any politician that shows the slightest signs of giving such fuck will be on the losing end of an election.
Swinson needs to start hammering the Brexit austerity message. Brexit means we can not reduce taxes. This is happening *now*, let alone later.
I doubt Scottish independence and Irish unification will be cost free for Britain either, despite the brainless claims oft repeated on here that “we are subsidising the jocks” etc.
Mr. Timple, I strongly suspect Remain would win a second referendum.
Of course, that requires MPs to go down that route instead of just saying no to everything. And then wondering why their reputation with the public is so poor.
@HYUFD how are you going to increase spending and lower taxes without increasing the deficit?
Please answer without using the phrase “laffer curve”.
By the laffer curve of course but Boris does not care about deficits, he is a Reagan or Berlusconi or George W Bush populist conservative anyway. Plus Corbyn does not care about deficits either anyway
Do you think Corbyn will worry about such trivialities when making his offer to the people?
@HYUFD how are you going to increase spending and lower taxes without increasing the deficit?
Please answer without using the phrase “laffer curve”.
Nobody, least of all Boris and his dick riders, gives a fuck about how anything is going to be paid for any more. Any politician that shows the slightest signs of giving such fuck will be on the losing end of an election.
That is for sure true.
We are going to be inundated with Xmas gifts from the politicians. I have sent in my request for some early editions of Newtoniana.
BoJo's cunning plan was to set MPs against Parliament and have an election on who runs the country. Is it working? Around here it's working with a vengeance. and looking at the national polls, it is working.
You can blame the MPs for collaborating.
Can anyone think of a previous election called on 'Who Governs Britain?' - and what the result was?
IDS on radio 4 suggesting the gov may need to VONC in itself. This seems very possible to me, with agreement from SNP and LibDems (who want an election) will produce 50% + for it to pass.
If this happens, this needs an additional 14 days and assuming no alternative gov is formed we are into a 2020 election. Too late for 12/19, which is good for my bets!
The SNP want an election soon. The Lib Dems do not.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
Why do you think Britain's growth rate is around 2% a year?
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
That is a figure out out by a Remainer-looking lobby group —- BUT it is not actually far off the government’s own forecasts.
Of course we will not “feel” a cumulative 5-7% decline against run rate — except in deferred tax cuts and a general feeling of poverty when travelling abroad.
Although it is often said that the poorest areas in the UK will be hardest hit, I actually think it is young people in general who will “pay” through job opportunities that do not turn up and ongoing repression of their ability to “rise up the ranks” in their career.
"those enraged by FoM for Turks or Syrians with German nationality", struggling to understand what this means - is it code for racists?
It's a reference to the two Leave posters during the campaign: one showing Turks arriving in Britain and the other the "Breaking Point" poster showing refugees travelling from Syria through Europe into Germany.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
Someone else who doesn’t understand the power of compound interest.
0.68% here, 0.68% there - pretty soon one forfeits one’s position in the prosperity leagues.
Except as has been mentioned, people won't understand or care. An extra 2p on beer and fags? All comes out in the wash when set against the phone, Range Rover Evoque, monthly payments.
The only thing I can see cutting through might be one clause or another in some trade deal we are about to do which is particularly shocking and is all over the front of the Mail Online.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
Why do you think Britain's growth rate is around 2% a year?
I think that trend growth in the UK and EZ has substantially slowed below that, independent of Brexit, for a bunch of demographic and macro economic reasons. Perhaps 1.3% over all, so knocking off half of that is quite a hit.
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
Starting with a value of 100 Ten years of 2% growth = 102.0000 104.0400 106.1208 108.2432 110.4081 112.6162 114.8686 117.1659 119.5093 121.8994 Ten years of 1.32% growth = 101.3200 102.6574 104.0125 105.3855 106.7766 108.1860 109.6141 111.0610 112.5270 114.0123 Two years of 1.5% contraction followed by eight years of 2% growth = 98.50000 97.02250 98.96295 100.94221 102.96105 105.02027 107.12068 109.26309 111.44836 113.67732
So yes, in fact, a 0.68% reduction in growth over ten years is pretty similar to a severe recession followed by 8 years of "normal" growth.
IDS on radio 4 suggesting the gov may need to VONC in itself. This seems very possible to me, with agreement from SNP and LibDems (who want an election) will produce 50% + for it to pass.
If this happens, this needs an additional 14 days and assuming no alternative gov is formed we are into a 2020 election. Too late for 12/19, which is good for my bets!
The SNP want an election soon. The Lib Dems do not.
Have they both said as much, or is this just a bit more Tory spin?
I may be in an echo chamber (as we all may be), but what I've noticed is the slow corrosion in the trust of MPs. When Brexit dies a slow death (as I've said will happen on here a few times), the remaining feeling will be the that MPs aren't on our side at all. They have their own agenda and will only pay lip service to the voters' wishes.
when they say "we need more time to go through the deal and make amendments", they mean "Oh, goody, another chance to delay and leave a few people to pick out bits they don't like and complain. We can keep these extensions going for another year or two until the voters lose interest."
It may have begun to bore the Remainers, but the machinations are now irritating many Leave voters. I accept having my vote ignored, I'm used to that, but the transparent lies are another matter.
@HYUFD how are you going to increase spending and lower taxes without increasing the deficit?
Please answer without using the phrase “laffer curve”.
By the laffer curve of course but Boris does not care about deficits, he is a Reagan or Berlusconi or George W Bush populist conservative anyway. Plus Corbyn does not care about deficits either anyway
Do you think Corbyn will worry about such trivialities when making his offer to the people?
His people are already behind him anyway, Boris will make the populist message to his people May did not.
If it was an English nationalist project it would be straight to No Deal with troops sent to Northern Ireland to enforce a hard border with the Republic and to Scotland to enforce a ban on indyref2
That’s a revealing comment given those are your own views.
Rich Burgon is becoming a national treasure.... he should get his own Saturday night TV series and follow in the great footsteps of his true forebears - Les Dennis, Dustin Gee, Bobby Davro and Mr Blobby.
If it was an English nationalist project it would be straight to No Deal with troops sent to Northern Ireland to enforce a hard border with the Republic and to Scotland to enforce a ban on indyref2
Nationalism is not only enforced through military strength, soft power can be nationalist as well. To turn around and suggest that we haven't gone English Nationalist until we literally send troops to quell the other nations of the Union is missing the point on purpose.
I may be in an echo chamber (as we all may be), but what I've noticed is the slow corrosion in the trust of MPs. When Brexit dies a slow death (as I've said will happen on here a few times), the remaining feeling will be the that MPs aren't on our side at all. They have their own agenda and will only pay lip service to the voters' wishes.
when they say "we need more time to go through the deal and make amendments", they mean "Oh, goody, another chance to delay and leave a few people to pick out bits they don't like and complain. We can keep these extensions going for another year or two until the voters lose interest."
It may have begun to bore the Remainers, but the machinations are now irritating many Leave voters. I accept having my vote ignored, I'm used to that, but the transparent lies are another matter.
Which lies are those, precisely?
Parliament has voted to Exercise A50, and indeed has now voted to progress the Withdrawal Act.
This, despite the fact May failed to win a majority and Boris has conspired to make his worse.
The lie - and I accept that it is causing widespread corrosion of trust - is that Brexit would be immediate and easy.
No pro-Brexiter in the public eye has ever had the balls or honesty to say it by necessity must be long and difficult.
Great thread CycleFree - while much has been made of the Leaver's failure to coalesce around a plan, I wonder if history will be unkind too to Remainers who rather than try to reverse the result could have built a consensus for the post-Brexit relationship. Now all we have is a dialogue of the deaf.
Completely OT - browsing Canadian media - two stories stood out - the British family which "accidentally" drove into the US had $16,000 in cash on them:
And the Trans-Activist who sued ethnic minority Home Beauty salon owners for failing to provide a 'full Brazilian" had her case chucked out and was ordered to pay costs:
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
The impact of the latest Boris Johnson deal is projected to be a cumulative 7% or so - nearly as bad as no deal.
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
It's 7% after 10 years. That's the equivalent of shaving off 0.68% of growth a year. If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
Why do you think Britain's growth rate is around 2% a year?
Comments
India is very concerned about the rise of China too and, for all its faults, is actually a democracy.
Of course no 10 may have decided the HOC is too polarised to pass anything and a GE on 'lets get this done and we leave on the 31st December' with a deal so no deal is gone is a very powerful message alongside a manifesto based on the QS
The next few days will be interesting
Even if he says in an election don’t worry give me a majority and I’ll remove the bits I don’t like will that message get through and what will the Brexit Party do .
China is a problem the west hasn't really started to figure out - which is not helped by having the current incumbent in the White House.
Watching him bluster and fail over this during an election campaign could be quite amusing.
As was also clear from ministerial contributions during the debate, the government doesn't appear fully cognisant of the bill's implications either.
He undoubtedly has no idea what he is proposing, but apparently that doesn't matter.
He is a serial, congenital liar, and his fans don't care.
He was picked as leader because of his winning record, and has lost every contest since.
And they love him for it.
I assumed that they would go for a FTPA 2/3 majority (same as when they tried this twice already, but this time LAB/LD/SNP pledge to support).
Now I don't know how much mileage there is in that logic but its possible they could add a custom unions amendment and try to force it through.
As for the Tories in Scotland - they are likely to retain 1 seat at most - so delaying the election keeps them in work.
He knows that's tough and needed the pressure of a lack of time to force them. Seems like hed rather takes gamble on the polls. May redux.
And a Union-trasher to boot.
The Tory rage would make it good though.
He always makes grand claims, and they are always bluster and bullshit.
It's not at all clear that this latest failure to deliver on one of his grand promises has dented his confidence at all.
He said he wouldn't send the letter, but he did, because he couldn't defeat the law.
He said we were leaving next week, but we're not because he can't defeat the parliamentary numbers.
I expect him to make another wild claim today, and for his fanbois to cheer him to the echo
Then pursue a populist agenda easing back on the austerity of the Cameron years with more money for the NHS and the police and a higher minimum wage and Priti Patel talking tougher on crime than the Coalition did to please working class voters while still having a more pro tax cut agenda thsn May did to appease middle class voters
We're not that far away from that scenario.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/22/william-taylor-ukraine-testimony-trump-054259
Whether the Senate has the independence to convict, however damning the evidence might become, is an open question.
Please answer without using the phrase “laffer curve”.
I think he knows this week was its last chance ahead if an election. The ex cons and a few of the labour backers will find something that will justify reversal.
If you're a minority government, the idea you can get your way by one-line bills is as deluded as fantasising that the sexpest is a competent politician.
So what will Britain look like if it achieves Brexit (and its still an if)? Pretty much as it is now. 115 pages of legislation sounds significant but in fact all it is really doing is ensuring that our current laws continue as they do now with UK institutions taking the place of EU ones where necessary. Neither the structure nor the substance of our regulation is being changed.
If we achieve Brexit we will also achieve a FTA with the EU. Nothing else makes sense for either party. There will be no tariffs. Will we be in a CU with the EU? Possibly, but probably not. Will there be any difference in our travel plans? Almost certainly not. Why would countries that rely so heavily on tourism want to discourage trade? It will be slightly harder for EU citizens to come here to work and visa versa but only slightly, almost certainly nowhere near as hard as we find it to get to America or for Americans to come and work in London (which, with the right skills, is not very hard at all).
No doubt economic models will tell us that the economy is a percent or so smaller than it might have been but as the comparator does not exist in the real world none of us will really notice that either.
In some areas, such as Financial Services, regulation will remain equivalent. In others there might be a slight drift but the scope of that will be fixed by the FTA.
In short I see a world where absolutely none of the doom prophecies of remainers have come true and most of the fantasies of the leavers have come to naught as well. Our politicians will be a little more accountable for what they do. They will spend a little less time in Brussels although they will go often enough. They will also spend more time in the wider world with which we will be more engaged, not less. My guess is that within 5 years we will wonder what the hell all the fuss was about.
My worst fear of no deal is off the table . Johnson now owns this deal , says it’s a great deal so can hardly say now he’s going to go into an election on no deal .
And I think he keeps a swathe of Tory Remainers who might be more worried about Corbyn than Brexit but who might have been spooked by no deal .
Not sure what happens with the Brexit Party , they might still take a small chunk of Leave voters but perhaps the people one would hope would be twigging onto the fact that bar the UK severing all contact with the EU and becoming a European Pariah State nothing would be good enough for them.
If this happens, this needs an additional 14 days and assuming no alternative gov is formed we are into a 2020 election. Too late for 12/19, which is good for my bets!
He performed well in campaigns last time (admittedly aided by press 'questioning' such as "Will you give up your allotment if you win?").
What a wretched situation.
Freudian slip?
I'm no fan of Boris, but it is deluded to think that all these cunning plans are not having an effect.
The wrong effect. Look at the polls.
The damage from Brexit will be a slow corrosion and rusting rather than explosion, with HMS UK progressively less sea worthy.
I think @Cyclefree is making the point that failure to deliver sunlit uplands has electoral consequences.
Oh got it now. Sorry a bit slow this morning.
Nicely argued header, but the problem is the MPs. Why an extension? Nothing will be passed because a majority of MPs are against the whole concept. They need more time to read it? They don't. The people who matter in the parties were commenting on it within minutes.
Most will only skim read it as they will vote as ordered - whatever it said. It is a delay as a show of strength only. They will push through a series of amendments and the EU will only accept them if it becomes BINO.
The worst aspect Is they aren't really pretending any more. The voters will have to put up with it because they are powerless, and they're stupid anyway. The MPs have stopped making excuses for their actions. Too busy whining that no one likes them.
Their cunning plan. Pretend to accept the result, but delay and prevaricate at every opportunity. Vote against everything. Complain about the uncertainty. Then when enough time has passed, claim everyone's changed their mind. If the polls don't move, rinse and repeat.
I ask again. Why keep extending? No one answers but soon they will. The next stage is to admit their cunning plan and justify it by saying "We know better." or "We told you so."
Why then, ever have a referendum? Sorry, Scots, your missed the boat.
It'll be interesting to see how SCons going full Brexitloon will go down with punters.
I think Labour could play a very astute game here by SO24-ing the bill back into committee stage and tabling their amendments. It would stymie the idea of them blocking Brexit. If they played a full hand they might even attach their PV at the end of it.
p.s. Ken Clarke and Jeremy Corbyn last night were more-or-less saying the same thing on this.
Please answer without using the number "four".
https://www.ft.com/content/a6f991ba-eda8-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901
That's the equivalent of a very severe recession that the Conservatives are going to inflict on us. Nor is there any reason to expect Britain to rebound from that, since Britain is weighing itself down with more anti-competitiveness by distancing itself and putting barriers in the way of trading with its biggest market. Fuck business, as our Prime Minister said.
As a bonus, the Conservatives have sought to trash the constitution along the way at every stage.
The whole thing is a complete disaster anyway you care to look at it.
You can blame the MPs for collaborating.
I doubt Scottish independence and Irish unification will be cost free for Britain either, despite the brainless claims oft repeated on here that “we are subsidising the jocks” etc.
The upheaval alone will cost billions.
Of course, that requires MPs to go down that route instead of just saying no to everything. And then wondering why their reputation with the public is so poor.
We are going to be inundated with Xmas gifts from the politicians. I have sent in my request for some early editions of Newtoniana.
If our growth is normally around 2% year, we would lose one third of it. That's significant, but it's not a severe recession.
Of course we will not “feel” a cumulative 5-7% decline against run rate — except in deferred tax cuts and a general feeling of poverty when travelling abroad.
Although it is often said that the poorest areas in the UK will be hardest hit, I actually think it is young people in general who will “pay” through job opportunities that do not turn up and ongoing repression of their ability to “rise up the ranks” in their career.
0.68% here, 0.68% there - pretty soon one forfeits one’s position in the prosperity leagues.
Except as has been mentioned, people won't understand or care. An extra 2p on beer and fags? All comes out in the wash when set against the phone, Range Rover Evoque, monthly payments.
The only thing I can see cutting through might be one clause or another in some trade deal we are about to do which is particularly shocking and is all over the front of the Mail Online.
Ten years of 2% growth = 102.0000 104.0400 106.1208 108.2432 110.4081 112.6162 114.8686 117.1659 119.5093 121.8994
Ten years of 1.32% growth = 101.3200 102.6574 104.0125 105.3855 106.7766 108.1860 109.6141 111.0610 112.5270 114.0123
Two years of 1.5% contraction followed by eight years of 2% growth = 98.50000 97.02250 98.96295 100.94221 102.96105 105.02027 107.12068 109.26309 111.44836 113.67732
So yes, in fact, a 0.68% reduction in growth over ten years is pretty similar to a severe recession followed by 8 years of "normal" growth.
when they say "we need more time to go through the deal and make amendments", they mean "Oh, goody, another chance to delay and leave a few people to pick out bits they don't like and complain. We can keep these extensions going for another year or two until the voters lose interest."
It may have begun to bore the Remainers, but the machinations are now irritating many Leave voters. I accept having my vote ignored, I'm used to that, but the transparent lies are another matter.
To play devil's advocate with general thinking
Corbyn led GE campaign … 40%
Sort of remain Alliancers 25%...…
Corbyn needs to take back control
Parliament has voted to Exercise A50, and indeed has now voted to progress the Withdrawal Act.
This, despite the fact May failed to win a majority and Boris has conspired to make his worse.
The lie - and I accept that it is causing widespread corrosion of trust - is that Brexit would be immediate and easy.
No pro-Brexiter in the public eye has ever had the balls or honesty to say it by necessity must be long and difficult.