That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Remainers keep saying this deal is much worse, Leavers keep saying it is better. Funny that.
Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?
He cut off his hand. He threw it at the land. It fell in the EU customers zone, didn’t meet their standards so was thrown back.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
And in response to @Philip_Thompson - see my thread header from Thursday.
The key point relates to any FTA with the EU where the EU is now in a much stronger position and Britain faces another cliff edge at the end of 2020.
Plus, as the government itself recognises and has said in its doomed attempt to get the DUP on board, it provides an incentive to firms to move to NI in order to get frictionless access to the SM. In short it is explicitly saying to companies that if they want easy access to the SM they should move out of Britain.
Perhaps a Leaver could explain why that is a good thing.
HoC Library briefing on the Johnson deal vs the May deal:
Boris Johnson's Government have negotiated a new 'deal' with the European Union. It is formed of a Political Declaration and a Withdrawal Agreement. This paper focuses on the Withdrawal Agreement and how it compares to the one negotiated by Theresa May's Government in November 2018. The main differences are in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland or the 'backstop' as it is commonly known. It contains very different arrangements, the UK will no longer be in a single customs territory or union with the EU. The UK will no longer be legally bound to continue with level playing field commitments at the end of the transition period. Northern Ireland will still be in the UK's customs territory and VAT area, however, the region will align with the EU's rules in these areas. Northern Ireland will remain mostly aligned to the EU's regulations for goods. Four years after the end of the transition period Northern Ireland's democratic institutions will vote on whether they wish to continue the arrangements in the Protocol......
......Only two Articles in the main Withdrawal Agreement have changed from the November 2018 text, and the changes are minor.
This means that the rest of the Agreement remains the same.
I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
I think it heralds the break up of the Union.
I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.
If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.
As a Unionist, I disagree.
Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
An observation to treasure.
Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
"Once in a generation" as set out in the SNP Government's White Paper.
Yup, my one abiding memory of indyref I was how seriously Unionists took the White Paper.
You're saying it shouldn't be taken seriously?
I'm saying folk who didn't take any of it seriously who then cherry pick one bit to support their strangely partial view of democracy are hypocrites.
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
My concern is that suddenly No Deal is a very real prospect. I don't think it's really sunken in that it is October 19th, we are on an automatic countdown to October 31st, Johnson will not cooperate, EU will not rescue us, Parliament is populated by total [REDACTED], and nobody has noticed that Joshua has started going thru the command codes...
I hope this effectively communicates my large level of worry.
Surely No Deal is a lot less likely now that Johnson and the EU have reached a deal - and crucially one which the Tory Party appears to have united behind?
Whatever foolish promises he has made in the past, No Deal is the last thing he wants now that a deal is on offer. If this parliament won't back it, another one can be elected.
I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.
Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .
And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .
They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .
There will be mind games with the extension. Look what Boris said: 'I will not negotiate' not 'I will not send the letter'. Expect radio silence from Boris and the EU. The law did not require Boris to give a running commentary. 31st Oct is less than a fortnight away. Tick, tock.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
To be fair to you, there are people in this world who would say amending the deal to throw ulster unionism under a bus makes the deal much better than mays deal. These people live in balaclavas and murder British soldiers and is the new true friend of everyone supporting Boris fantastic new deal.
I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.
Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .
And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .
They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .
The WIAB cannot amend the text of the deal. There might be “side” amendments attached to it but it cannot change the treaty provisions.
Agreed . I think the second vote which I thought had zip chance of being carried has a slightly better chance now .
The UUP front runner for the top job said he’d rather revoke than have this deal . This could allow the previously unthinkable, the DUP care more about the Union than Brexit .
If the UUP move to this position officially it gives space for the DUP to make an astonishing u turn .
HoC Library briefing on the Johnson deal vs the May deal:
Boris Johnson's Government have negotiated a new 'deal' with the European Union. It is formed of a Political Declaration and a Withdrawal Agreement. This paper focuses on the Withdrawal Agreement and how it compares to the one negotiated by Theresa May's Government in November 2018. The main differences are in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland or the 'backstop' as it is commonly known. It contains very different arrangements, the UK will no longer be in a single customs territory or union with the EU. The UK will no longer be legally bound to continue with level playing field commitments at the end of the transition period. Northern Ireland will still be in the UK's customs territory and VAT area, however, the region will align with the EU's rules in these areas. Northern Ireland will remain mostly aligned to the EU's regulations for goods. Four years after the end of the transition period Northern Ireland's democratic institutions will vote on whether they wish to continue the arrangements in the Protocol......
......Only two Articles in the main Withdrawal Agreement have changed from the November 2018 text, and the changes are minor.
This means that the rest of the Agreement remains the same.
I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
I think it heralds the break up of the Union.
I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.
If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.
As a Unionist, I disagree.
Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
An observation to treasure.
Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
"Once in a generation" as set out in the SNP Government's White Paper.
Yup, my one abiding memory of indyref I was how seriously Unionists took the White Paper.
You're saying it shouldn't be taken seriously?
I'm saying folk who didn't take any of it seriously who then cherry pick one bit to support their strangely partial view of democracy are hypocrites.
I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.
Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .
And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .
They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .
I thinkthat is just about right. There's votes there, just, for the overall principle of the deal and therefore the legislation. Probably. But votes there for every amendment that will be up?
I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.
Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .
And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .
They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .
The WIAB cannot amend the text of the deal. There might be “side” amendments attached to it but it cannot change the treaty provisions.
Won't stop the attempt. After all, Johnson has proven the EU can be made to make changes.
Do the Labour deal supporters, in announcing their intentions, now feel committed? Can the detail provide them an excuse to change their mind?
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
I think the DUP did.
They should have backed Mays' deal then. As everyone says, you cannot trust Boris, they could not have guaranteed something better would come along.
HoC Library briefing on the Johnson deal vs the May deal:
Boris Johnson's Government have negotiated a new 'deal' with the European Union. It is formed of a Political Declaration and a Withdrawal Agreement. This paper focuses on the Withdrawal Agreement and how it compares to the one negotiated by Theresa May's Government in November 2018. The main differences are in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland or the 'backstop' as it is commonly known. It contains very different arrangements, the UK will no longer be in a single customs territory or union with the EU. The UK will no longer be legally bound to continue with level playing field commitments at the end of the transition period. Northern Ireland will still be in the UK's customs territory and VAT area, however, the region will align with the EU's rules in these areas. Northern Ireland will remain mostly aligned to the EU's regulations for goods. Four years after the end of the transition period Northern Ireland's democratic institutions will vote on whether they wish to continue the arrangements in the Protocol......
......Only two Articles in the main Withdrawal Agreement have changed from the November 2018 text, and the changes are minor.
This means that the rest of the Agreement remains the same.
Given the months and months spent on the last one, it should only need a day or so...
It’s what has moved to the PD and been watered down that are the problem for many but nobody really cares, can be bothered doing the detail and to that extent Johnson personal career plan has been superb. Take power when everybody is pissed off and wants it over with and harvest the unearned plaudits.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
To be fair to you, there are people in this world who would say amending the deal to throw ulster unionism under a bus makes the deal much better than mays deal. These people live in balaclavas and murder British soldiers and is the new true friend of everyone supporting Boris fantastic new deal.
Aren't those the people in the devolved government ?
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
My concern is that suddenly No Deal is a very real prospect. I don't think it's really sunken in that it is October 19th, we are on an automatic countdown to October 31st, Johnson will not cooperate, EU will not rescue us, Parliament is populated by total [REDACTED], and nobody has noticed that Joshua has started going thru the command codes...
I hope this effectively communicates my large level of worry.
I would imagine that if we get to an accidental no-deal, both the pound and the euro fall sharply against other major currencies, with extreme volatility in the short term as things play out.
The immediate drop in cable after the referendum was 10%, so as a wild guess we end up with something similar or a little worse, so possibly around $1.15 and €1.10.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
I think the DUP did.
They should have backed Mays' deal then. As everyone says, you cannot trust Boris, they could not have guaranteed something better would come along.
They overreached, asked for too much and got buttons. Good, everyone is better off with the religious freaks a minor opposition party carping from obscurity.
If Bozo starts going back to his no deal guff then he’s just going to piss off the 21 Tory rebels again . And with the DUP against him he’s screwed .
He's now pinned to supporting the deal. That means his self preservation requires he deliver what he has promised to the Labour deal backers and ex-con backers.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
I think the DUP did.
My perspective is not that of the DUP. Serves them right. The deal is quite good for NI but much worse for the rest of Britain.
If the EU can’t move the plenary session then unless the government gets its MV5 and at the same time can avoid the Letwin Amendment on Monday an extension will have to be offered before the end of next week .
If the EP can’t ratify before the 31st October then that’s it , the UK won’t be leaving by then.
Why can't the EU move the plenary session? The Parliament is sitting next week, it can vote on the deal.
Nothings is certain except these three facts for you
Parliament will vote this deal down, if it ever comes to it. The numbers won’t be there when it comes back. If you look at those saying they would back Boris deal and the Letwin amendment they obviously weren’t going to back Boris. If they weren’t allowed the Letwin “not endorsing the deal” amendment you really sure they would have backed Boris? It’s a remainer parliament playing games with you.
The only way to ensure a brexit from here is win a deal v revoke pleblicite.
Also ignore any expert who tells you EU will never renegotiate. Go to Brussels offering all UK to stay in CU and whatever current deal is will be junked and new deal in place 11 seconds later.
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
My concern is that suddenly No Deal is a very real prospect. I don't think it's really sunken in that it is October 19th, we are on an automatic countdown to October 31st, Johnson will not cooperate, EU will not rescue us, Parliament is populated by total [REDACTED], and nobody has noticed that Joshua has started going thru the command codes...
I hope this effectively communicates my large level of worry.
Surely No Deal is a lot less likely now that Johnson and the EU have reached a deal - and crucially one which the Tory Party appears to have united behind?
Whatever foolish promises he has made in the past, No Deal is the last thing he wants now that a deal is on offer. If this parliament won't back it, another one can be elected.
The deal is not a deal unless the UK Parliament authorise it and the European Parliament authorise it. The current UK Parliament won't make a decision, the European Parliament may throw it out for shits and giggles - the former is bad, the latter is worse. Johnson can fix this by calling an election but - hey, ho, the FTPA, remember.
And we have 12 days to X-day
So although I acknowledge that you make good points, this is beginning to look like a "Seconds to Disaster" thing.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Remainers keep saying this deal is much worse, Leavers keep saying it is better. Funny that.
Can you give any reason why - from a Leaver's perspective - we should view this deal as worse let alone much worse?
Agreed. Remainers think Johnson's Deal is worse because it doesn't limit the damage. Leavers don't care about limiting Brexit damage obviously
If your desired end state is single market/customs union (SM I get - but CU is mad) then May’s deal is better because we end up there automatically (which is bad, if you don’t want that).
If your desired end state is a looser FTA then Boris’ is better (we’d have to fight to regain SM etc, and therefore concede stuff, so will look worse to the other side).
Neither is objectively better or worse than the other. They achieve very different objectives for different reasons.
The other way round for me. I get that Leavers would be unhappy with the SM, which requires real concessions. But why would anyone care about the UK levying a 2% tariff on Peruvian guano against an EU tariff of 3%. Or care about the Britishness of the tariff schedule when UK access to third country markets is guaranteed to be worse in the round than when members of the EU, the only question is by how much?
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
If Bozo starts going back to his no deal guff then he’s just going to piss off the 21 Tory rebels again . And with the DUP against him he’s screwed .
He's now pinned to supporting the deal. That means his self preservation requires he deliver what he has promised to the Labour deal backers and ex-con backers.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
Good synopsis of what you think he should do!
Being BJ, he does not follow normal behaviour. Has he burn't his bridges after the letter to MPs as reported by Sky news?
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
It was $1.22 only a week ago, so pretty volatile. Although amazingly within a cent of where it was a year ago. The thinking is that a deal going through should strengthen the pound, but it’s already done quite a bit of that. (Annoyingly for me, as I get paid in USD and pay my mortgage in Sterling).
My concern is that suddenly No Deal is a very real prospect. I don't think it's really sunken in that it is October 19th, we are on an automatic countdown to October 31st, Johnson will not cooperate, EU will not rescue us, Parliament is populated by total [REDACTED], and nobody has noticed that Joshua has started going thru the command codes...
I hope this effectively communicates my large level of worry.
I would imagine that if we get to an accidental no-deal, both the pound and the euro fall sharply against other major currencies, with extreme volatility in the short term as things play out.
The immediate drop in cable after the referendum was 10%, so as a wild guess we end up with something similar or a little worse, so possibly around $1.15 and €1.10.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
To be fair to you, there are people in this world who would say amending the deal to throw ulster unionism under a bus makes the deal much better than mays deal. These people live in balaclavas and murder British soldiers and is the new true friend of everyone supporting Boris fantastic new deal.
Aren't those the people in the devolved government ?
It’s a very sensitive and complicated political situation, has been for more than a century. Someone please explain this to Boris and the ERG turncoats.
If Bozo starts going back to his no deal guff then he’s just going to piss off the 21 Tory rebels again . And with the DUP against him he’s screwed .
He's now pinned to supporting the deal. That means his self preservation requires he deliver what he has promised to the Labour deal backers and ex-con backers.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
Good synopsis of what you think he should do!
Being BJ, he does not follow normal behaviour. Has he burn't his bridges after the letter to MPs as reported by Sky news?
What is in the letter? A rage filled letter would be unwise, in my view. He would be smart to pitch it for the Labour leavers and ex cons who voted for Letwin, noting Letwin's view that it was about assisting the WAIB, not preventing it.
This is why the EU won’t make a decision on the extension until the result of the votes on the legislation are known.
Without an EU extension decision JC would break his own rule about tabling a VONC. He wanted an extension secured before he did so.
VONC would be a very grave risk of no deal given there is no govt in waiting with the numbers. And if the deal is 'in transit' when the vote is sprung I don't see what a GNU would achieve even were one agreed, risks a lurch to dissolution and no deal given that Bill's should not be brought forward until a VOC in someone passes or we have elections.
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
Viewcode, you surely understand that no-one here can answer that because if they could they would be extremely wealthy by now and their time would be too valuable to bother.
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Bozo starts going back to his no deal guff then he’s just going to piss off the 21 Tory rebels again . And with the DUP against him he’s screwed .
He's now pinned to supporting the deal. That means his self preservation requires he deliver what he has promised to the Labour deal backers and ex-con backers.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
Good synopsis of what you think he should do!
Being BJ, he does not follow normal behaviour. Has he burn't his bridges after the letter to MPs as reported by Sky news?
What is in the letter? A rage filled letter would be unwise, in my view. He would be smart to pitch it for the Labour leavers and ex cons who voted for Letwin, noting Letwin's view that it was about assisting the WAIB, not preventing it.
It seems a very sensible letter saying we must get Brexit done and will bring legislation forward next week. Also neither he nor the EU want an extension and lets get it done
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Brexit gets over the line, which is still not certain, it will be very interesting to see if that movement falls behind the LDs, who I suspect will be the only GB wide party to campaign to rejoin. If it does they could become a powerful force very quickly.
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
Viewcode, you surely understand that no-one here can answer that because if they could they would be extremely wealthy by now and their time would be too valuable to bother.
I live in euro land and always get it wrong, I think my predictions are close but the road to any final position is extremely bumpy. It’s a bit shit though that something always happens on the 29th of the month which trashes the pound and wipes 200€ of this months pension. Oh for the days it was 1.4 and some idiot hadn’t rocked the boat
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Brexit gets over the line, which is still not certain, it will be very interesting to see if that movement falls behind the LDs, who I suspect will be the only GB wide party to campaign to rejoin. If it does they could become a powerful force very quickly.
I think there will definitely be a movement to rejoin but rejoin is, of course, a very different proposition to remain. It remains to be seen just how popular it will be in the medium to long term.
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Brexit gets over the line, which is still not certain, it will be very interesting to see if that movement falls behind the LDs, who I suspect will be the only GB wide party to campaign to rejoin. If it does they could become a powerful force very quickly.
Will be determined if Brexit is seen as a success or mistake.
Seems pretty tame. Obviously people will take issue with him saying the public wants to get Brexit done, and his repeating the point about not negotiating a delay will trigger a reaction, but he talks about 'Parliament's request for further delay' so it seems pretty clear he will be forwarding the request.
But it does show his plan is reliant on the EU not taking a decision quickly, so for his sake I hope they have indeed agreed to wait a bit. It would be sensible of them.
But has he learned nothing from May? He should have called a 10pm announcement outside No. 10, said nothing of import, then gone back in.
If Bozo starts going back to his no deal guff then he’s just going to piss off the 21 Tory rebels again . And with the DUP against him he’s screwed .
He's now pinned to supporting the deal. That means his self preservation requires he deliver what he has promised to the Labour deal backers and ex-con backers.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
Good synopsis of what you think he should do!
Being BJ, he does not follow normal behaviour. Has he burn't his bridges after the letter to MPs as reported by Sky news?
What is in the letter? A rage filled letter would be unwise, in my view. He would be smart to pitch it for the Labour leavers and ex cons who voted for Letwin, noting Letwin's view that it was about assisting the WAIB, not preventing it.
The letter is defined in the Benn Burt act so no freedom there, he has also been warned that to frustrate the objectives of the act will result with him being in contempt of court.
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Brexit gets over the line, which is still not certain, it will be very interesting to see if that movement falls behind the LDs, who I suspect will be the only GB wide party to campaign to rejoin. If it does they could become a powerful force very quickly.
Will be determined if Brexit is seen as a success or mistake.
But in the immediacy that may not be clear, given we will be in the transition period. It's whether, not being sure if it is a success or a mistake yet, the rejoin message is immediately picked up for mass support.
I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.
Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .
And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .
They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .
I thinkthat is just about right. There's votes there, just, for the overall principle of the deal and therefore the legislation. Probably. But votes there for every amendment that will be up?
I think things might fall apart pretty soon on the WAIB.
Because the DUP can no longer be trusted to vote with the government. And those Labour Leavers although happy to vote for the deal might also be happy to support amendments for a softer Brexit .
And this is when the ERG are likely to implode , people seem to have missed Steve Bakers comments .
They said they would play nicely if the Bill wasn’t changed or had something added to it that they don’t like .
The WIAB cannot amend the text of the deal. There might be “side” amendments attached to it but it cannot change the treaty provisions.
Won't stop the attempt. After all, Johnson has proven the EU can be made to make changes.
Do the Labour deal supporters, in announcing their intentions, now feel committed? Can the detail provide them an excuse to change their mind?
Can the votes have been there today and minds changed by the time the speaker allows it to happen?
Yes.
We’re the votes there today?
I don’t think so. At first I believed when people counted the yes to Boris total with the yes to Letwin who were going to do both. They were taking the piss. How can they endorse it having just defaced it to say parliament won’t endorse it till each bit has been mangled? Shortly before the voting began it became clear there wouldn’t be enough Labour with Boris today. If you subtract the Letwin voters who said they would vote Boris once they had voted Letwin, this deal died the moment the DUP were voting against.
Boris and Cummings are up to their eyebrows in trouble.
The other way round for me. I get that Leavers would be unhappy with the SM, which requires real concessions. But why would anyone care about the UK levying a 2% tariff on Peruvian guano against an EU tariff of 3%. Or care about the Britishness of the tariff schedule when UK access to third country markets is guaranteed to be worse in the round than when members of the EU, the only question is by how much?
Because that reveals a deep misunderstanding of the Customs Union situation. It is back to that old argument of 'A' vs 'The'
If we leave the EU we cannot be members of 'The' Customs Union. Membership is intimately tied up with EU membership and is not open to non members (with the exception of a couple of tiny territories due to their geographical situation.)
That means customs union means 'A' customs union. The same situation as Turkey is in. This is an atrocious position to find yourself in. It means that any 3rd party country with a Free Trade Deal with the EU is able to export to your country tariff free. But you are not able to export to them tariff free because you don't have an FTA with them. This is why Turkey was faced with having to withdraw from the Customs Union with the EU if the EU signed FTAs with either the US or China. They simply can't afford to have either of those countries have tariff free access to their markets without reciprocal arrangements.
A customs union in these circumstances may sound good but it is a very bad idea
If Bozo starts going back to his no deal guff then he’s just going to piss off the 21 Tory rebels again . And with the DUP against him he’s screwed .
He's now pinned to supporting the deal. That means his self preservation requires he deliver what he has promised to the Labour deal backers and ex-con backers.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
Good synopsis of what you think he should do!
Being BJ, he does not follow normal behaviour. Has he burn't his bridges after the letter to MPs as reported by Sky news?
What is in the letter? A rage filled letter would be unwise, in my view. He would be smart to pitch it for the Labour leavers and ex cons who voted for Letwin, noting Letwin's view that it was about assisting the WAIB, not preventing it.
The letter is defined in the Benn Burt act so no freedom there, he has also been warned that to frustrate the objectives of the act will result with him being in contempt of court.
I meant his letter to MPs, not the letter to the EU.
Edit: Also, are you Alistair Burt? Who calls it the Benn-Burt Act?
I think it was 649 lines: "I will not prorogue parliament again. I will not prorogue parliament again. I will not prorogue parliament again. I will not prorogue parliament again. ..."
Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?
Remainers completely lost the plot today.
They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.
But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block a deal they may well have blown themselves up.
Grieve clearly rattled by it all on Sky. His plans are in ruins and he knows it, and hes ended his parliamentary career for nothing.
Grieve is a strange fellow. He has tied himself in knots trying to come up with some weird justification for the actions he takes. Yet he does not appear to be able to come out and say “yes I think the decision the people took was wrong and I want to do everything in the rule book to stop us leaving the EU” which surely must be his main motivation.
I would have much more respect for him if he’d just be frank and honest.
At least the Lib Dems are honest. Grieve is a shyster.
The most obvious shyster is Johnson! A lower form of life indeed.
How is Johnson a shyster? He has been remarkably consistent despite people consistently saying he doesn't mean what he says. He's achieved what he said he would.
Do you really need any further evidence that he is a compulsive liar - extending to all aspects of his life? Thoroughly malign and disreputablt. He debases the office he holds in the same way that Trump does.
Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?
Remainers completely lost the plot today.
They didn't believe Boris would get a deal and so thought it would be Benn Vs No Deal.
But Boris did get a deal and by using Benn to block a deal they may well have blown themselves up.
Grieve clearly rattled by it all on Sky. His plans are in ruins and he knows it, and hes ended his parliamentary career for nothing.
Grieve is a strange fellow. He has tied himself in knots trying to come up with some weird justification for the actions he takes. Yet he does not appear to be able to come out and say “yes I think the decision the people took was wrong and I want to do everything in the rule book to stop us leaving the EU” which surely must be his main motivation.
I would have much more respect for him if he’d just be frank and honest.
At least the Lib Dems are honest. Grieve is a shyster.
The most obvious shyster is Johnson! A lower form of life indeed.
How is Johnson a shyster? He has been remarkably consistent despite people consistently saying he doesn't mean what he says. He's achieved what he said he would.
Do you really need any further evidence that he is a compulsive liar - extending to all aspects of his life? Thoroughly malign and disreputablt. He debases the office he holds in the same way that Trump does.
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Brexit gets over the line, which is still not certain, it will be very interesting to see if that movement falls behind the LDs, who I suspect will be the only GB wide party to campaign to rejoin. If it does they could become a powerful force very quickly.
Will be determined if Brexit is seen as a success or mistake.
To be honest how will anybody ever measure that. I think we’re on our way to a recession, the longer the US attempt to stave it off the worse it will be but how will anybody be able to attribute blame.
Parliament should have taken May’s deal when it had the chance. More fools them. It will be the rest of us who pay the price.
I'm looking forward to No Deal.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I’m not sure I’ll still be around then but my children are all up for the continuing battle, they believe they are Europeans and wish to remain EU citizens.
One of the ironies of Brexit is that the UK is now home of Europe's largest pro EU movement.
If Brexit gets over the line, which is still not certain, it will be very interesting to see if that movement falls behind the LDs, who I suspect will be the only GB wide party to campaign to rejoin. If it does they could become a powerful force very quickly.
Will be determined if Brexit is seen as a success or mistake.
To be honest how will anybody ever measure that. I think we’re on our way to a recession, the longer the US attempt to stave it off the worse it will be but how will anybody be able to attribute blame.
The recession we are due will be taken as proof by a good number, I should think. Given the small impact that might be necessary to push us into it, it might well be true too. But the general point is a good one, there will be so much nonsense about what shows it a failure or success.
I've still not read it, so I cannot speak as to whether the deal is superior to Mays'. But I think it a mite strange that you think the DUP view on the matter is the definitive answer to that question. They regard it as inferior. That doesn't mean it is.
I think it heralds the break up of the Union.
I think it strengthens the case for a united Ireland, and for Scotland to diverge from England.
If you are a Little Englander, both of those things are a win for you.
As a Unionist, I disagree.
Not only that but we'll be allowing a foreign entity, over which have zero influence, to exercise political and economic power over a sizeable chunk of our country. Surely that's the very definition of treachery.
And that "sizeable chunk of our country" can withdraw from that arrangement should they so wish. Surely thats the very definition of democracy?
An observation to treasure.
Never refuted Scotland's right to leave the Union - the objection was and is to the SNP's fatuous and fraudulent prospectus.
The right to choose is the principle, not arguing about versions of the choices available. Glad though that your new democracy-defining self is now on board with S30 order being given at the request of the elected Scottish government.
"Once in a generation" as set out in the SNP Government's White Paper.
Can you document that? Edit: the context is clearly in terms of the previous time spent gettong to that point. Not a mendacious and hypocritical attempt to deny democracy.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
To be fair to you, there are people in this world who would say amending the deal to throw ulster unionism under a bus makes the deal much better than mays deal. These people live in balaclavas and murder British soldiers and is the new true friend of everyone supporting Boris fantastic new deal.
Aren't those the people in the devolved government ?
It’s a very sensitive and complicated political situation, has been for more than a century. Someone please explain this to Boris and the ERG turncoats.
Its Northern Ireland's problem and its time for Northern Ireland to sort itself out.
But that's not what the DUP want is it.
What they want is to have a veto about all maters Northern Ireland and for others to keep shoveling the money in.
I haven't been keeping up today. Could somebody explain why Johnson didn't want to pass the vote with the amendment attached?
It did pass, as amended, it just wasnt voted on. So essentially it says that parliament is withholding approval of the deal for now.
No I thought that as well. But apparently I am being told it didn't. It was pulled. Can someone clarify.
Speaker definitely called for Ayes in favour, for for which there was a large cheer, Noes against, for which there was silence, then he said that the Ayes have it. From watching I would say that the substantive went through ‘on the nod’.
I haven't been keeping up today. Could somebody explain why Johnson didn't want to pass the vote with the amendment attached?
I assume he believed it would take the pressure off people to agree the deal.
So it's not that he didn't want it to pass, it's that he was afraid it would fail?
To be honest I don't know. I didn't think there was that much of an issue with the amendment but like everything else at the moment we have two sides declaring it the greatest thing since the Bill of Rights or the worst betrayal since Brutus sharpened his bread knife.
Boris has confirmed he is submitting the letter today
So as we all knew the loophole was another Cummings fantasy .
But the thought he may not kept his opponents in a constant state of rage and litigation
Well, he did say he'd rather die in a ditch than do it. And denied he would do it on numerous other occasions. He can hardly complain if people don't believe anything he says.
I haven't been keeping up today. Could somebody explain why Johnson didn't want to pass the vote with the amendment attached?
It did pass, as amended, it just wasnt voted on. So essentially it says that parliament is withholding approval of the deal for now.
No I thought that as well. But apparently I am being told it didn't. It was pulled. Can someone clarify.
Speaker definitely called for Ayes in favour, for for which there was a large cheer, Noes against, for which there was silence, then he said that the Ayes have it. From watching I would say that the substantive went through ‘on the nod’.
That’s what comes when you have a reputation for being utterly untrustworthy. No-one trusts you.
People are getting over-excited though.
1. He sends the letter. 2. EU wait. They have no obligation to respond immediately. 3. Boris introduces WA bill next week. 4. It passes by 31/10. 5. Problem solved. 6. If it needs a bit more time to complete its legislative passage EU gives UK a bit more time.
The real fireworks start if either (a) it gets voted down and/or (b) a referendum is tacked onto it.
I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He is one of the chief architects of this mess.
I also hope there is no GE soon so that he is left dangling in office but not in power, though it would be very nice indeed to see Corbyn soundly defeated. Let the Tories get on with taking responsibility for what they started.
No-one is noticing that this deal is much worse than May’s deal.
Why do you feel it's a much worse deal?
To be fair to you, there are people in this world who would say amending the deal to throw ulster unionism under a bus makes the deal much better than mays deal. These people live in balaclavas and murder British soldiers and is the new true friend of everyone supporting Boris fantastic new deal.
Aren't those the people in the devolved government ?
It’s a very sensitive and complicated political situation, has been for more than a century. Someone please explain this to Boris and the ERG turncoats.
Its Northern Ireland's problem and its time for Northern Ireland to sort itself out.
But that's not what the DUP want is it.
What they want is to have a veto about all maters Northern Ireland and for others to keep shoveling the money in.
Stop turning on them and the balance of the union. There will be nothing good left to take control back to at this rate.
Today GBP is 1.29USD and 1.16EUR. What will it be in a week's time?
Viewcode, you surely understand that no-one here can answer that because if they could they would be extremely wealthy by now and their time would be too valuable to bother.
I live in euro land and always get it wrong, I think my predictions are close but the road to any final position is extremely bumpy. It’s a bit shit though that something always happens on the 29th of the month which trashes the pound and wipes 200€ of this months pension. Oh for the days it was 1.4 and some idiot hadn’t rocked the boat
Those who think they can foretell currency movements should consider the question: if you're so smart why aren't you rich?
Comments
He cut off his hand. He threw it at the land.
It fell in the EU customers zone, didn’t meet their standards so was thrown back.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/17/welcome-to-the-looking-glass/
The key point relates to any FTA with the EU where the EU is now in a much stronger position and Britain faces another cliff edge at the end of 2020.
Plus, as the government itself recognises and has said in its doomed attempt to get the DUP on board, it provides an incentive to firms to move to NI in order to get frictionless access to the SM. In short it is explicitly saying to companies that if they want easy access to the SM they should move out of Britain.
Perhaps a Leaver could explain why that is a good thing.
Boris Johnson's Government have negotiated a new 'deal' with the European Union. It is formed of a Political Declaration and a Withdrawal Agreement. This paper focuses on the Withdrawal Agreement and how it compares to the one negotiated by Theresa May's Government in November 2018. The main differences are in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland or the 'backstop' as it is commonly known. It contains very different arrangements, the UK will no longer be in a single customs territory or union with the EU. The UK will no longer be legally bound to continue with level playing field commitments at the end of the transition period. Northern Ireland will still be in the UK's customs territory and VAT area, however, the region will align with the EU's rules in these areas. Northern Ireland will remain mostly aligned to the EU's regulations for goods. Four years after the end of the transition period Northern Ireland's democratic institutions will vote on whether they wish to continue the arrangements in the Protocol......
......Only two Articles in the main Withdrawal Agreement have changed from the November 2018 text, and the changes are minor.
This means that the rest of the Agreement remains the same.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8713
Anyway, back to 'no border in the Irish Sea'.
Whatever foolish promises he has made in the past, No Deal is the last thing he wants now that a deal is on offer. If this parliament won't back it, another one can be elected.
To be fair to you, there are people in this world who would say amending the deal to throw ulster unionism under a bus makes the deal much better than mays deal. These people live in balaclavas and murder British soldiers and is the new true friend of everyone supporting Boris fantastic new deal.
The UUP front runner for the top job said he’d rather revoke than have this deal . This could allow the previously unthinkable, the DUP care more about the Union than Brexit .
If the UUP move to this position officially it gives space for the DUP to make an astonishing u turn .
Do the Labour deal supporters, in announcing their intentions, now feel committed? Can the detail provide them an excuse to change their mind?
The immediate drop in cable after the referendum was 10%, so as a wild guess we end up with something similar or a little worse, so possibly around $1.15 and €1.10.
Boris is not trustworthy, but to preserve his premiership he needs to deliver on what he is currently saying, so the idea he will junk that is not hugely plausible to me.
Add to that we have to accept that many of us thought he was not serious about a deal, and he was. Whether that was because of the Benn Act people will argue (I would say Yes), but a lot of people said he had no intention to be serious even then, but he was.
Taken together it shows he has every reason to do whatever it takes to keep on side those he needs for the legislation to pass, and bemoaning his general untrustworthiness ignores that he has very vital reasons to be trustworthy this time.
Parliament will vote this deal down, if it ever comes to it. The numbers won’t be there when it comes back.
If you look at those saying they would back Boris deal and the Letwin amendment they obviously weren’t going to back Boris. If they weren’t allowed the Letwin “not endorsing the deal” amendment you really sure they would have backed Boris? It’s a remainer parliament playing games with you.
The only way to ensure a brexit from here is win a deal v revoke pleblicite.
Also ignore any expert who tells you EU will never renegotiate. Go to Brussels offering all UK to stay in CU and whatever current deal is will be junked and new deal in place 11 seconds later.
And we have 12 days to X-day
So although I acknowledge that you make good points, this is beginning to look like a "Seconds to Disaster" thing.
Really what next they what’s app each other on a regular basis ! Jeez does he think people are really that stupid and gullible .
https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1185620782015229952?s=20
Being BJ, he does not follow normal behaviour. Has he burn't his bridges after the letter to MPs as reported by Sky news?
https://twitter.com/Bonecrusher_ben/status/1185629060002660352?s=20
Without an EU extension decision JC would break his own rule about tabling a VONC. He wanted an extension secured before he did so.
The government's own forecasts said the poor will be disproportionately hit by No Deal, seems fair they get most of the Brexit dividend.
As a former member of Vote Leave told me, sustained No Deal means we rejoin within a decade.
WIN WIN.
I do suspect, as a Latin student, Boris Johnson will sign off his letter 'vi coactus.'
(So he says, on the day he bet £20 on a December election!).
Autocorrect nearly changed 'vi coactus' to 'vi coitus' fortunately it didn't add what normally follows when I usually type 'coitus'
As a nerd, one of my stock phrases is 'Holy coitus interruptus Batman.'
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1185632670132375552
Really , but only on their terms . See Steve Bakers tweet from this morning .
But it does show his plan is reliant on the EU not taking a decision quickly, so for his sake I hope they have indeed agreed to wait a bit. It would be sensible of them.
But has he learned nothing from May? He should have called a 10pm announcement outside No. 10, said nothing of import, then gone back in.
Yes.
We’re the votes there today?
I don’t think so. At first I believed when people counted the yes to Boris total with the yes to Letwin who were going to do both. They were taking the piss. How can they endorse it having just defaced it to say parliament won’t endorse it till each bit has been mangled?
Shortly before the voting began it became clear there wouldn’t be enough Labour with Boris today. If you subtract the Letwin voters who said they would vote Boris once they had voted Letwin, this deal died the moment the DUP were voting against.
Boris and Cummings are up to their eyebrows in trouble.
If we leave the EU we cannot be members of 'The' Customs Union. Membership is intimately tied up with EU membership and is not open to non members (with the exception of a couple of tiny territories due to their geographical situation.)
That means customs union means 'A' customs union. The same situation as Turkey is in. This is an atrocious position to find yourself in. It means that any 3rd party country with a Free Trade Deal with the EU is able to export to your country tariff free. But you are not able to export to them tariff free because you don't have an FTA with them. This is why Turkey was faced with having to withdraw from the Customs Union with the EU if the EU signed FTAs with either the US or China. They simply can't afford to have either of those countries have tariff free access to their markets without reciprocal arrangements.
A customs union in these circumstances may sound good but it is a very bad idea
Edit: Also, are you Alistair Burt? Who calls it the Benn-Burt Act?
Only on PB.
It's all rather sad and pathetic
Boris has confirmed he is submitting the letter today
"I will not prorogue parliament again.
I will not prorogue parliament again.
I will not prorogue parliament again.
I will not prorogue parliament again.
..."
But that's not what the DUP want is it.
What they want is to have a veto about all maters Northern Ireland and for others to keep shoveling the money in.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BM1AvoYFuZk
I really don't know.
That is a very big positive with a GE just round the corner