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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

On Monday the Prime Minister will be ordered by the Court to send the letter and/or the Court will sign it himself. If the Prime Minister does not send the letter by the deadline tonight we *will* bring contempt of court proceedings against him personally. pic.twitter.com/DVQl1DK2g6

Read the full story here

rottenborough

First. Like Letwin.

mwadams

Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

Foxy

Second, like LCFC in the league

kle4

RobD said:

justin124 said:

Given the Government;s weak Parliamentary position, there must be doubt as to its ability to control the passage of the WAIB .Whether relying on Programme Orders or a Guillotine Motion, without DUP support there is surely the potential to delay significantly.

Yet more delays and silly games. I can see that being popular in the country.

That's not the focus anymore (and it would be popular with half the country anyway). It's about whether Brexit can be stopped or not - the bill is the last fight, of course it will be rancrous.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185596816336789505

dyedwoolie

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426?s=19

A second source. Trouble brewing.

kle4

Andrew said:

blueblue said:

Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!

Just needs to send it by Yodel, no chance it arrives.

Nah, Parcelforce. They tried to deliver then took away a package to me, despite the box itself (not the labels, the box) being covered in messages from the sender saying 'do not return this to the depot, does not need a siganture, leave in a safe place, must be delivered today, perishable'. Fools.

ReggieCide

I thought Sammy Wilson put the DUP position succinctly, paraphrasing - "we are pro BREXIT but will not vote for it for GB without it including NI".

Scott_P

dyedwoolie said:

A second source. Trouble brewing.

Almost certainly the same source

kle4

dyedwoolie said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426?s=19

A second source. Trouble brewing.

Yeah, Macron is really committed to a text message.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185596994259243008

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DrHannahWhite/status/1185576326121570304

dyedwoolie

kle4 said:

dyedwoolie said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426?s=19

A second source. Trouble brewing.

Yeah, Macron is really committed to a text message.

It's up to MPs if they want to risk it, I'm just reporting what's been said and that it casts some doubt on an extension

EPG

None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

numbertwelve

The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not.

Sandpit

I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

ReggieCide

EPG said:

None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.

Zephyr

The whole point of leaving No deal on table was to show EU we are serious about walking away from negotiating and having no deal in order to frighten them into giving us a generous deal.

We’ve got a deal. If win win and great for U.K. is lost in politics. But negotiating with EU is over.

So, ahem, excuse me whilst I clear my throat, WHY IS NO DEAL STILL AN OPTION FOR THIS GOVERNMENT?

Simple answer. It ain’t.

Brom

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

Scott_P

If BoZo and the rest of the fuckwit brigade had voted for it in March we would be out by now...

Any and all anger should be reserved for them

Brom

Scott_P said:

If BoZo and the rest of the fuckwit brigade had voted for it in March we would be out by now...

Any and all anger should be reserved for them

Not true, obviously maths isn't your strong point Scott. Mays deal will never pass, this one probably will.

Sandpit

ReggieCide said:

EPG said:

None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.

As others have suggested, an election with the 650 incumbents all barred from standing would be a fitting reward.

numbertwelve

ReggieCide said:

EPG said:

None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.

Hopefully it’ll see the end of Corbyn and Labour can choose someone electable. Though knowing our luck they’ll elect Rebecca Long-Bailey and will be destined for more years in the wilderness.

SouthamObserver

If there was another referendum I wonder how the result would look in Northern Ireland.

dyedwoolie

ReggieCide said:

EPG said:

None of these battles would be happening had the British voters elected a majority government with a mandate for a Brexit deal, a year after the sainted referendum. But they did not. If they do so next time, then it will be easy. If not again, then it will be hard.

The next GE will be a bloodbath - not sure whose blood though. The electorate's been bled dry.

Today made some very very amusing labour losses inevitable.
Also, how irrelevant does Corbyn seem now? Hes becoming yesterdays man

kle4

I am surprised they are this direct about th eneed for a vote
https://twitter.com/MichelReuters/status/1185567770823593985

Scott_P said:

If BoZo and the rest of the fuckwit brigade had voted for it in March we would be out by now...

Any and all anger should be reserved for them

Well not all, but a lot of it. Particularly since many of them baulked as the DUP were not on side, and they are even more not on side now.

Richard_Tyndall

Zephyr said:

The whole point of leaving No deal on table was to show EU we are serious about walking away from negotiating and having no deal in order to frighten them into giving us a generous deal.

We’ve got a deal. If win win and great for U.K. is lost in politics. But negotiating with EU is over.

So, ahem, excuse me whilst I clear my throat, WHY IS NO DEAL STILL AN OPTION FOR THIS GOVERNMENT?

Simple answer. It ain’t.

Just as wrong now as you were on the previous thread. Johnson having got a deal makes it of course a lot more likely we leave with a deal. But at the same time it has clearly hardened the EU against any further significant delays. So if this deal falls it is extremely unlikely the EU will grant a further extension (although of course not impossible)

In that case we will be looking at No Deal just as we were before. The dates may change slightly but the underlying dynamics of all of this remain the same.

Scott_P

Brom said:

maths isn't your strong point

May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

BoZo then pissed it away.

SouthamObserver

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

RobD

Scott_P said:

Brom said:

maths isn't your strong point

May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

BoZo then pissed it away.

Ah, I assume you are counting Grieve et al. as a part of the "fuckwit brigade" then?

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

Richard_Tyndall

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

Thing is, if he hadn't do you really think we would be looking at the possibility of a Deal passing this week? I would suggest that Johnson, for all his many, many faults, has succeeded in concentrating minds on all sides of the argument in a way May found absolutely impossible top achieve.

Scott_P

SouthamObserver said:

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

Someone posed an interesting question the other day.

If BoZo had campaigned for the leadership on this deal (screwing the DUP)

1. would he have won?
2. by a bigger margin?

eristdoof

"The DUP care more about the Union than they do about Brexit. It is as simple as that. "
Anyone who doubted this first sentence was delusional.

GIN1138

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass.

So basically MPs are just stringing this out, making themeselves look like fools and generally tormenting everyone for absolutely **** all then?

dyedwoolie

https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/1185559530970767360?s=19

Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

noneoftheabove

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

Thing is, if he hadn't do you really think we would be looking at the possibility of a Deal passing this week? I would suggest that Johnson, for all his many, many faults, has succeeded in concentrating minds on all sides of the argument in a way May found absolutely impossible top achieve.

Mays approach was doomed to fail. It does not follow all alternative approaches were doomed to fail. Stewart would have got a deal through in a very different way, with a far less divided nation.

GIN1138

eristdoof said:

"The DUP care more about the Union than they do about Brexit. It is as simple as that. "
Anyone who doubted this first sentence was delusional.

Personally I'd bung ROI and bunch of money to take them off our hands!

rottenborough

Baker says Boris will comply with the law. Civil service and law officers wont let him do otherwise, even if he wanted to,

Stocky

numbertwelvesaid: "Hopefully it’ll see the end of Corbyn and Labour can choose someone electable. Though knowing our luck they’ll elect Rebecca Long-Bailey and will be destined for more years in the wilderness."

Could be worse than Rebecca Long-Bailey - I wouldn`t want Richard Burgon to run with scissors.

dyedwoolie

rottenborough said:

Baker says Boris will comply with the law. Civil service and law officers wont let him do otherwise, even if he wanted to,

Cherry was looking forward to going to court too

rottenborough

Looks like Pidcock is up next on early Newsnight. Labour's future?

numbertwelve

When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.

Stocky

Numbertwelve said: "The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not."

Yes, I think this is very likely. A smart move.

Andrew

dyedwoolie said:

Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.

Pulpstar

GIN1138 said:

eristdoof said:

"The DUP care more about the Union than they do about Brexit. It is as simple as that. "
Anyone who doubted this first sentence was delusional.

Personally I'd bung ROI and bunch of money to take them off our hands!

The cash should be directed to the top of the Notts/S Yorkshire border - where all 3 MPs within a hundred yards of me put country before party today.

noneoftheabove

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

I think that is almost true. Some scrutiny will take place, 95% of MPs are already decided. Some things could be added to the text of the agreement, moving back workers rights or security from PD to WA would be fine with the EU so are plausible and may get Labour votes across. But yes it is mostly theatre, just as the PM plays to the gallery so can his opponents.

SquareRoot

numbertwelve said:

When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.

Its the electorate that caused the impasse.. the decision to call the election looked solid at the time, until the loony idea on pensioner benefits.. That's what fecked it.

EPG

numbertwelve said:

When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.

And yet it's not evident that governance has been particularly poor compared to 1997-2017 or 2015-2017. Economic growth and employment have been strong, there is less prejudice against the poor and foreigners, and the hung parliament has even lasted longer than its majority predecessor.

Sandpit

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

Which is why international treaties have always been a job for the executive rather than the legislature. There is nothing to scrutinise or amend here, they can read it and decide either that they agree or disagree with implementing the Treaty.

SouthamObserver

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

Thing is, if he hadn't do you really think we would be looking at the possibility of a Deal passing this week? I would suggest that Johnson, for all his many, many faults, has succeeded in concentrating minds on all sides of the argument in a way May found absolutely impossible top achieve.

I agree. I think he is leading us to long term trouble, but he has played Brexit brilliantly. There is no doubt about that. And I think he has done a genuinely good thing with regards to Ireland. It’s also very good news for the UK’s international standing.

Pulpstar

Andrew said:

dyedwoolie said:

Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.

What did he do today

The_Taxman

mwadams said:

Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

The 1970s, the lights went out, inflation, pickets, strikes, hung parliaments or only small majorities, bailouts from the IMF, talk of coups, talk of private armies, NI troubles etc...

Philip_Thompson

Scott_P said:

Brom said:

maths isn't your strong point

May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

BoZo then pissed it away.

May had a majority until the 2017 election, the deal was agreed after than and she ran a minority government. Idiot.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1185603752927137793

SquareRoot

The_Taxman said:

mwadams said:

Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

The 1970s, the lights went out, inflation, pickets, strikes, hung parliaments or only small majorities, bailouts from the IMF, talk of coups, talk of private armies etc...

lets not forget rubbish piled high in the streets causing rat infestations and dead bodies not being buried.. a disgraceful period.

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

Brom

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

Brom said:

maths isn't your strong point

May had a majority. If Bozo and fuckwit brigade had voted for it, it would have passed.

BoZo then pissed it away.

May had a majority until the 2017 election, the deal was agreed after than and she ran a minority government. Idiot.

It's fine Scott gets all his info from Ian Dunt on twitter. He also thinks Grieve and Bebb are 'fuckwits'

Chris

Sandpit said:

I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

I think he'll send the letter, but won't expect a speedy reply.

eristdoof

Pulpstar said:

Andrew said:

dyedwoolie said:

Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.

What did he do today

Voted Against (The Letwin ammendment).

Scott_P

Philip_Thompson said:

she ran a minority government.

She had a majority with the DUP.

Unlike BoZo.

Idiot.

Stocky

Pidcock on Newsnight: dreadful. Doesn`t pronounce her T`s.

Philip_Thompson

Chris said:

Sandpit said:

I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

I think he'll send the letter, but won't expect a speedy reply.

And if it is a speedy reply it won't be an extension.

A response of "we can't consider this request until there's been a Meaningful Vote in Parliament" would be enough to concentrate minds.

kle4

Stocky said:

Numbertwelve said: "The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not."

Yes, I think this is very likely. A smart move.

A surprisingly smart move. Totally reasonable to, as it doesn't force a particular choice on us, only a choice, whilst they can as a last resort grant something if we still haven't got back to them on 31st.

blueblue

numbertwelve said:

When the history of this period in British politics is written, the 2017 election will be seen (to the extent it isn’t already) as a tragedy.

It was a personal tragedy for May because it doomed her to political failure and she should never have called it. It also left us with a parliamentary arithmetic that locked the country in limbo, precipitating crisis upon crisis and exacerbating division.

We would have been better off with a majority government of any colour, or at least a stable coalition.

GE2017: when a crucial few % points of Remainers who would otherwise never have voted for him plumped for Corbyn as the champion of Remain, and thus fucked any kind of sensible exit up for years.

Well done, chaps, well done

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

How can he make good on them if the wording of the text can't change?

Philip_Thompson

kle4 said:

Stocky said:

Numbertwelve said: "The letter will be sent. The EU will ignore it until they get clarity on whether the deal will be accepted or not."

Yes, I think this is very likely. A smart move.

A surprisingly smart move. Totally reasonable to, as it doesn't force a particular choice on us, only a choice, whilst they can as a last resort grant something if we still haven't got back to them on 31st.

Or not grant something if they think we're being silly and messing them around.

Sandpit

rottenborough said:

Looks like Pidcock is up next on early Newsnight. Labour's future?

Not if they want to be elected she isn’t. Not for at least a decade anyway. She gave the impression today that she didn’t have a clue about what she was speaking, just reading words from the page. I’d love someone to ask her what a Customs Union is and how it works.

Edit. Bollocks I was confusing her with R L-B. Pidcock is even worse though.

blueblue

Scott_P said:

Philip_Thompson said:

she ran a minority government.

She had a majority with the DUP.

Unlike BoZo.

Idiot.

A majority with the DUP is no fucking majority at all, as they have just proved.

The_Taxman

SquareRoot said:

The_Taxman said:

mwadams said:

Has there been such a sustained period of political chaos since the war?

The 1970s, the lights went out, inflation, pickets, strikes, hung parliaments or only small majorities, bailouts from the IMF, talk of coups, talk of private armies etc...

lets not forget rubbish piled high in the streets causing rat infestations and dead bodies not being buried.. a disgraceful period.

Indeed, turmoil! I don't think the current problems compare. Just my opinion.

RobD

noneoftheabove said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

I think that is almost true. Some scrutiny will take place, 95% of MPs are already decided. Some things could be added to the text of the agreement, moving back workers rights or security from PD to WA would be fine with the EU so are plausible and may get Labour votes across. But yes it is mostly theatre, just as the PM plays to the gallery so can his opponents.

I think there is almost no chance of any further modification to the agreed text.

Stocky

Why won`t Ladrokes take a double on Hoyle as next speaker and 2020 as next GE? Not an associated bet surely.

Pulpstar

One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

Philip_Thompson

Baker and Grieve on Sky atm with Baker sounding reasonable and statesmanlike of the two of them talking about compromise . . . what is happening? Have we slipped into a parallel universe?

Scott_P

blueblue said:

A majority with the DUP is no fucking majority at all, as they have just proved.

But BoZo is not with the DUP, having thrown them under a Boris Bus to get the deal approved in Brussels.

Something "No British PM could ever do"...

Chris

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

blueblue said:

Boris: Ah, here is the tracking number and the phone number for you to call. The former will tell you that it was posted from Victoria Street SW1, and the latter will keep you on hold for the next few weeks. Good luck!

Just needs to send it by Yodel, no chance it arrives.

Nah, Parcelforce. They tried to deliver then took away a package to me, despite the box itself (not the labels, the box) being covered in messages from the sender saying 'do not return this to the depot, does not need a siganture, leave in a safe place, must be delivered today, perishable'. Fools.

My favourite courier story will always be the one about a card notifying the recipient that the package had been left in safe place, with the word "bin" written next to it.

kle4

Pulpstar said:

Andrew said:

dyedwoolie said:

Likely woodcock will now vote for the deal, not a very abstainy post

Didn't hear it myself, but apparently he said on Sky this morning he'd vote Yes.

What did he do today

Against Letwin

Sandpit

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

What do these things mean in practice, would it for example oblige us to follow suit if the EU decided to mandate a four-day working week?

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

Indeed. Leavers are united voting for this deal, so there's no excuse anymore not to pass it.

numbertwelve

One of the main motivators for many opposition parties to support the Benn Act, and to play the silly games of recent weeks around election timings, was that it was felt sending the letter would politically weaken Johnson, he’d break his vow and everyone could crow about what a failure he was.

Since the new deal has been agreed, however, I have a feeling it won’t have the desired impact. It looks like MPs are playing weird procedural chess to force Boris into an unnecessary act. Not sure it’s going to play on the doorsteps the way that Labour, for instance, would have liked.

Still, the election when it comes will be fascinating.

kle4

Interesting that Hoey did not vote with the DUP on the Letwin amendment, even though she will be against the Deal.

Stocky

Pulpstar said: "One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers."

Yep. That`s why even though I didn`t vote to leave I prefer this deal to May`s. You can`t have a binary referendum and then deny the victors the spoils.

Scott_P

Pulpstar said:

One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

That's not obviously true either.

May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant.

Which says much about Leavers in general...

Philip_Thompson

Scott_P said:

Philip_Thompson said:

she ran a minority government.

She had a majority with the DUP.

Unlike BoZo.

Idiot.

No she didn't have a majority. She had a minority government with confidence and supply.

The DUP would have needed to be in a formal coalition for it to be a majority.

Idiot.

eristdoof

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

First of all you made that 99% up. But even so 1% undecided is 6 or 7 MPs, given that most think this is on a knife edge, it is wrong to say it makes no difference.

The handful of MPs who are floating are probably the most likely to be persuaded by the fine print in the WA and PD.

blueblue

Scott_P said:

blueblue said:

A majority with the DUP is no fucking majority at all, as they have just proved.

But BoZo is not with the DUP, having thrown them under a Boris Bus to get the deal approved in Brussels.

Something "No British PM could ever do"...

Well he just did it. Why on earth should he be bound by something his predecessor said?

Philip_Thompson

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

That's not obviously true either.

May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant.

Which says much about Leavers in general...

The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

Scott_P

Philip_Thompson said:

She had a minority government with confidence and supply.

And BoZo doesn't.

Idiot.

eristdoof

Can we stop calling other posters "idiots" please.

Scott_P

Philip_Thompson said:

The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

And the headbangers voted for it because they still think BoZo will crash out on No Deal terms.

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

Indeed. Leavers are united voting for this deal, so there's no excuse anymore not to pass it.

MPs who lost the referendum lied to get elected so they could vote Brexit down. When will people realise that just because they call themselves "progressive" politicians, it doesn't mean they don't tell enormous lies to get power.

Scott_P

eristdoof said:

Can we stop calling other posters "idiots" please.

I was referring to BoZo.

numbertwelve

RobD said:

noneoftheabove said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

I think that is almost true. Some scrutiny will take place, 95% of MPs are already decided. Some things could be added to the text of the agreement, moving back workers rights or security from PD to WA would be fine with the EU so are plausible and may get Labour votes across. But yes it is mostly theatre, just as the PM plays to the gallery so can his opponents.

I think there is almost no chance of any further modification to the agreed text.

There will probably be a tussle around a second referendum (that will go down) and some amendment around a legal commitment to maintain the same standard of workers and environmental rights (which the government would be wise to accept as it probably brings more Labour leavers on board).

Philip_Thompson

numbertwelve said:

One of the main motivators for many opposition parties to support the Benn Act, and to play the silly games of recent weeks around election timings, was that it was felt sending the letter would politically weaken Johnson, he’d break his vow and everyone could crow about what a failure he was.

Since the new deal has been agreed, however, I have a feeling it won’t have the desired impact. It looks like MPs are playing weird procedural chess to force Boris into an unnecessary act. Not sure it’s going to play on the doorsteps the way that Labour, for instance, would have liked.

Still, the election when it comes will be fascinating.

I said all along the letter would not be a pivotal moment as we the voters aren't idiots and can see who sent the letter in reality. Complying with the law just means those who voted for the law are responsible.

Now that there's this deal it matters even less. A stupid letter that has been sent due to MPs playing parlor games won't impress anyone, let alone our EU partners or voters.

Stocky

Scott_P said: "That's not obviously true either. May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant. Which says much about Leavers in general..."

No - Unlike May`s, Boris`s deal allows GB to agree trade deals round the world as there is no fear of being trapped in backstop.

RobD

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Brom said:

Listening to Gauke you get a feeling today just delayed the inevitable. Even without the DUP the deal looks like it has the numbers to pass. Certainly the remained protesters interviewed on the BBC calling the government fascist are doing their cause no favours. These people will be in for a huge shock when yet again they will see there is nowhere near a parliamentary majority for another referendum.

It clearly has the numbers to pass. But not without proper scrutiny. The only reason any of this is a problem is because Johnson has made leaving on 31st October so totemic.

I genuinely wonder what scrutiny is actually going to take place. There is going to be no way to change the text of the agreement. It is a simple yes/no decision, and 99% of MPs have their minds made up (or their minds made up for them).

The whole point is that we can’t know! But there is now the opportunity, for example, for Johnson to make good on the commitments he made in the House today about workers’ rights, consumer protections and environmental standards staying in line with EU ones.

What do these things mean in practice, would it for example oblige us to follow suit if the EU decided to mandate a four-day working week?

Hardly compatible with parliament being sovereign, is it?

Pulpstar

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

One of the valid objections raised here to May's deal - that it wasn't accepted by leavers has been satisfied by this deal, it clearly IS acceptable to leavers.

That's not obviously true either.

May was not acceptable to Leavers. BoZo is. The deal is irrelevant.

Which says much about Leavers in general...

I preferred May's deal but then again I voted to remain - leaver's consent as Meeks and others have put it a few times on here is very important.

Philip_Thompson

Scott_P said:

eristdoof said:

Can we stop calling other posters "idiots" please.

I was referring to BoZo.

I was not. Sorry eristdoof.

RobD

Scott_P said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The deal is not irrelevant. Boris's deal is far superior to May's deal and dealt with the dreaded backstop.

It really isn't. Ask the DUP...

And the headbangers voted for it because they still think BoZo will crash out on No Deal terms.

Have they actually said that, or are we well into the realm of crazed speculation?

david_herdson

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Sandpit said:

I still think the PM will be quite happy to see a week of headlines about court cases - especially Scottish court cases - and that he’ll hope to get the Brexit Bill passed without sending the letter.

He’s obviously spoken to EU leaders about this scenario, and co-ordinated replies will be forthcoming over the next hours.

I think he'll send the letter, but won't expect a speedy reply.

And if it is a speedy reply it won't be an extension.

A response of "we can't consider this request until there's been a Meaningful Vote in Parliament" would be enough to concentrate minds.

There probably can't be a speedy reply as the European Council needs to meet in order to give one and I doubt that could be done until well into next week Heads of government are busy people