The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
But hey, we aren't anti-semites......
No, that's Labour. The Tories are the Islamophobes. A plague on both your houses.
I also wanted to commend David Herdson on his excellent piece on the proroguation which I think I agree with almost entirely.
It is of course entirely reasonable to disagree fundamentally with the government's actions whilst accepting it WAS legal.
You’ve hit the nail on the head . And it’s this the public might find difficult . There is precedent though in terms of judges taking motive into account .
This happened in Magill v Porter 2002 . If you’re old enough you might remember Dame Shirley Porter . The case centred on gerrymandering .
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
No, too busy sorting out the mess of previous Labour governments like halving unemployment since 2010, expanding economic growth and cutting the deficit
The term one nation conservative is bandied around a lot without any description of what it means.
Disraeli used it because he thought that the patriots at the top and bottom of society had more in common with each other than either did with those in the middle - the professional middle classes. Given the Conservatives' success post-1918 he appears to have had some foresight.
McMillan is also often referred to as a one nation conservative. As a 1st world war soldier he had great respect for the bravery of working class troops, not least the miners in the battle of the Somme, something he pointedly remarked during the strike under Thatcher.
Have there been many of the recent generation who could be described similarly?
Disraeli of course led the opposition to Corn Law repeal too and was staunchly pro Empire and he originally coined the phrase
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Labour and Lib Dem MPs were elected to oppose a Tory Brexit.
Labour MPs can campaign for single market and customs union membership in the future relationship after they have passed the withdrawal agreement first which still needs to be passed whatever that future relationship is, even BINO
Nope. They will do what they were elected to do.
The fact your party cant agree amongst yourselves is your own problem.
They were elected to deliver Brexit, they have refused to do so, even when some represent seats where over 60% voted Leave.
Though I do agree all Tory candidates at the next general election must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and Boris and Cummings are correctly ensuring that will be the case, including deselecting existing Tory MPs who refuse to commit to that pledge
Just because they are not doing what YOU want them to do doesn’t mean they are not doing what they were elected to do.
They were elected to deliver their version of Brexit. In absence of that; they do what they believe is in the best interests of their constituents.
I repeat, just because they wont bail out your pathetic excuse for a political party doesn’t make them any less competent or honorable.
Even the likes of Lisa Nandy have now said they made a mistake in not voting for the Withdrawal Agreement
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
No, too busy sorting out the mess of previous Labour governments like halving unemployment since 2010, expanding economic growth and cutting the deficit
Little tip for you. If a Tory ever offers to help you clear up a mess, he's probably got a can of petrol and a book of matches.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
But hey, we aren't anti-semites......
No, that's Labour. The Tories are the Islamophobes. A plague on both your houses.
Let me know when the investigation into the tories starts - As you know the Labour one underway.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
It's never a good idea to look at polls in isolation. If you take an average of the latest polls it would probably give a pretty good indication of how the parties are doing.
Polls published over the last 7 days, averages:
Con 33.6% Lab 25.8% LD 17.8% BRX 12.0% Grn 4.0% SNP 4.0%
I vaguely recall one of the more maths/stats minded contributors here pointed out that averaging polls creates problems of its own. Maybe to do with differing MoE in each poll and different sample sizes, forget the specifics. May even have been Nick Palmer but the gist was that averaging polls doesn't give better confidence levels and may make things worse. Can anyone else remember the issue?
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
It's never a good idea to look at polls in isolation. If you take an average of the latest polls it would probably give a pretty good indication of how the parties are doing.
Polls published over the last 7 days, averages:
Con 33.6% Lab 25.8% LD 17.8% BRX 12.0% Grn 4.0% SNP 4.0%
In 2017 one poll, Survation, proved a better guide than the poll average and in 2015 that was also the case (though the accurate final Survation was unpublished unlike the equally almost as accurate final Survey Monkey poll)
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
No, too busy sorting out the mess of previous Labour governments like halving unemployment since 2010, expanding economic growth and cutting the deficit
Little tip for you. If a Tory ever offers to help you clear up a mess, he's probably got a can of petrol and a book of matches.
Thatcher and Major cleaned up the mess of the 1974-1979 Labour government as did Cameron and Osborne clear up the mess of the 2005-2010 Labour government
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
But hey, we aren't anti-semites......
No, that's Labour. The Tories are the Islamophobes. A plague on both your houses.
Let me know when the investigation into the tories starts - As you know the Labour one underway.
I seem to remember the leadership candidates all thought it would be a good idea to look into it. Presumably that's going to happen.. or is it another case of closing ranks because there's some nasty truth they don't want aired?
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
Probably both polls are wrong - we simply do not know!
This has cropped up before. During the EU ref, there was an obvious discrepancy between online and telephone polls. People's natural inclination was to assume that the truth was somewhere in the middle, but the simple fact was that the telephone polls were wrong and the online polls are right.
Similarly here: there is a difference between those polls who prompt for BXP and those that do not, and there is a difference between those polls which take self-recall into account and those that do not. One of those options is wrong, the other is not.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
No, too busy sorting out the mess of previous Labour governments like halving unemployment since 2010, expanding economic growth and cutting the deficit
Little tip for you. If a Tory ever offers to help you clear up a mess, he's probably got a can of petrol and a book of matches.
Thatcher and Major cleaned up the mess of the 1974-1979 Labour government as did Cameron and Osborne clear up the mess of the 2005-2010 Labour government
Sure. And Labour cleaned up the mess left by the Tories in 1997. And someone's going to have to clean up the mess being made right now. You Tories always think your shit doesn't stink. But it does. Take some responsibility for once.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
Invoking the Incredible Hulk will play brilliantly well with the average person.
It's funny and totally relate-able in terms of where the country is with Brexit.
I'm not sure the partisans on the red side are actually seeing Boris the way a typical voter would.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
But hey, we aren't anti-semites......
No, that's Labour. The Tories are the Islamophobes. A plague on both your houses.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
No, too busy sorting out the mess of previous Labour governments like halving unemployment since 2010, expanding economic growth and cutting the deficit
Little tip for you. If a Tory ever offers to help you clear up a mess, he's probably got a can of petrol and a book of matches.
Thatcher and Major cleaned up the mess of the 1974-1979 Labour government as did Cameron and Osborne clear up the mess of the 2005-2010 Labour government
Sure. And Labour cleaned up the mess left by the Tories in 1997. And someone's going to have to clean up the mess being made right now. You Tories always think your shit doesn't stink. But it does. Take some responsibility for once.
Major left low inflation, a growing economy, a largely balanced budget and low unemployment and few strikes in 1997.
Callaghan left high inflation and frequent strikes in 1979 and Brown left an economy in deep recession and high unemployment and a big deficit in 2010.
Unemployment is now lower than 2010 as is the deficit and the economy is still growing.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
No, too busy sorting out the mess of previous Labour governments like halving unemployment since 2010, expanding economic growth and cutting the deficit
Little tip for you. If a Tory ever offers to help you clear up a mess, he's probably got a can of petrol and a book of matches.
Is that for the mountains of rubbish Labour councils leave in the streets? Or maybe for the unburied dead in Labour's Winter of Discontent maybe?
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
It's never a good idea to look at polls in isolation. If you take an average of the latest polls it would probably give a pretty good indication of how the parties are doing.
Polls published over the last 7 days, averages:
Con 33.6% Lab 25.8% LD 17.8% BRX 12.0% Grn 4.0% SNP 4.0%
I vaguely recall one of the more maths/stats minded contributors here pointed out that averaging polls creates problems of its own. Maybe to do with differing MoE in each poll and different sample sizes, forget the specifics. May even have been Nick Palmer but the gist was that averaging polls doesn't give better confidence levels and may make things worse. Can anyone else remember the issue?
Isn’t the point that averaging polls only makes sense if the differences between them are solely due to random variation. If the differences are systemic, it doesn’t help, since at best you end up with a result worse than the accurate poll if better than the inaccurate one, and at worst you simply build the systemic error of both polls into your average?
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
It's never a good idea to look at polls in isolation. If you take an average of the latest polls it would probably give a pretty good indication of how the parties are doing.
Polls published over the last 7 days, averages:
Con 33.6% Lab 25.8% LD 17.8% BRX 12.0% Grn 4.0% SNP 4.0%
In 2017 one poll, Survation, proved a better guide than the poll average and in 2015 that was also the case (though the accurate final Survation was unpublished unlike the equally almost as accurate final Survey Monkey poll)
Yes although we don't know in advance which pollster will be most accurate for the next election, so using averages is the best thing to do IMO.
People rarely reward governments for things in the past though. Also, a number will be surprised it isn't finished. And some more that everything isn't instantly better. Though I do agree the impetus to fight on will go from a great number.
This is where remainers have hugely helped Boris.
The relentless predictions of guaranteed catastrophic doom in the event of the UK leaving will provide such a low bar of expectations that, unless the sky falls in, it will be perceived that the government has done a fantastic job.
Most remainers will probably not even want to mention the subject out of embarrassment at how wrong they were.
You will still get a tiny group claiming that Brexit is a disaster for the country because they can no longer source their favourite Italian vegan cat litter but they will be a rich seam for comedians in the future.
Brexit has to happen first - and frankly, I can't see the path to it anytime soon.
1. Boris gets a deal - pretty much any deal - from he EU
2. In return, the EU will give us no further extensions.
3. The vote becomes Boris's Deal or No Deal.
4. Given the Doom-fest they have made of No Deal, MPs have no choice but to take Boris's Deal.
All by 31st October.
Precisely. I can't see either 1. or 2. happening.
I may be wrong of course, I get that. But I don't think so.
Perhaps Corbyn will need to table a VNOC as soon as Parliament reassembles. If the EU can see that it stands a high probability of passing, they are unlikely to agree much with Johnson.
Corbyn will never table a VoNC. He's too scared of it passing. He might actually have to be a politician then.
So you’ll moan a bit and then move on ! I will accept a deal but no deal absolutely not because if Vote Leave had said that was a possibility they wouldn’t have won.
Similarly if Remain had won and then decided to see that as a green light for the Euro I would have been very unhappy .
I think nico67 in that parallel universe over there then (points that away) is very unhappy.
People rarely reward governments for things in the past though. Also, a number will be surprised it isn't finished. And some more that everything isn't instantly better. Though I do agree the impetus to fight on will go from a great number.
This is where remainers have hugely helped Boris.
The relentless predictions of guaranteed catastrophic doom in the event of the UK leaving will provide such a low bar of expectations that, unless the sky falls in, it will be perceived that the government has done a fantastic job.
Most remainers will probably not even want to mention the subject out of embarrassment at how wrong they were.
You will still get a tiny group claiming that Brexit is a disaster for the country because they can no longer source their favourite Italian vegan cat litter but they will be a rich seam for comedians in the future.
Brexit has to happen first - and frankly, I can't see the path to it anytime soon.
1. Boris gets a deal - pretty much any deal - from he EU
2. In return, the EU will give us no further extensions.
3. The vote becomes Boris's Deal or No Deal.
4. Given the Doom-fest they have made of No Deal, MPs have no choice but to take Boris's Deal.
All by 31st October.
Precisely. I can't see either 1. or 2. happening.
I may be wrong of course, I get that. But I don't think so.
Perhaps Corbyn will need to table a VNOC as soon as Parliament reassembles. If the EU can see that it stands a high probability of passing, they are unlikely to agree much with Johnson.
Corbyn will never table a VoNC. He's too scared of it passing. He might actually have to be a politician then.
Would people expect Labour politicians to privatise the NHS or reintroduce the death penalty, if the public had voted for it in a referendum? While I do think a referendum vote, on one hand, should be respected... there's also something quite frankly disturbing about MPs being expected to carry out policies they believe to be disastrous for their constituents.
Then they should resign. Oh wait. I see the flaw in this idea, namely that most MPs are more interested in the trough than actually doing what their constitents want.
In all honesty, your point was a good one, but had it been implemented I would've expected to see around 450MPs resigning on 24th June 2016. That they didn't, shows either that they're unprincipled chancers, don't actually think leaving the EU will be that bad, or had no intention of honouring the vote and instead stay in place to undermine it.
Any of those three could be true. The unprincipled chancers one I like the most however.
I'm no fan of Alex Salmond, but I do think he was right in saying that referendums should only be sought by governments seeking to *make a change to the status quo*. When you have a government lacking a majority, seeking to carry out a constitutional change which they previously argued against just three years ago, you end up in the current mess we have now. And I don't think opposition parties should be expected to help them out of it, no more than we expect them to vote for their Queen's Speech and legislation. Of course, to be consistent, I don't think Labour or any opposition party should have voted for the referendum to begin with. Nor voted for Article 50.
Can't disagree with this. I feel most sorry for Ed Miliband in all this. Cameron completely misread the public mood and paid too much attention to the polls. Believing only attacking the left (Chaos with EdM) AND the right (Offer a referendum) would see him largest party. Instead he ended up winning in 2015 based on something he really didn't want to implement. He should've just refused to offer one. It'd would have left UKIP on 16% instead, and the Cons on 34%. Hung Parliament and first thing he offers his Coalition partners instead (the DUP) is the Referendum promise.... really.... take it. I'll sacrifice that referendum for your support......
He was an idiot. Offered something he didn't want to do just to save his job. Irony of ironies, he didn't need to offer it afterall. His job was safe either way.
People rarely reward governments for things in the past though. Also, a number will be surprised it isn't finished. And some more that everything isn't instantly better. Though I do agree the impetus to fight on will go from a great number.
This is where remainers have hugely helped Boris.
The relentless predictions of guaranteed catastrophic doom in the event of the UK leaving will provide such a low bar of expectations that, unless the sky falls in, it will be perceived that the government has done a fantastic job.
Most remainers will probably not even want to mention the subject out of embarrassment at how wrong they were.
You will still get a tiny group claiming that Brexit is a disaster for the country because they can no longer source their favourite Italian vegan cat litter but they will be a rich seam for comedians in the future.
Brexit has to happen first - and frankly, I can't see the path to it anytime soon.
1. Boris gets a deal - pretty much any deal - from he EU
2. In return, the EU will give us no further extensions.
3. The vote becomes Boris's Deal or No Deal.
4. Given the Doom-fest they have made of No Deal, MPs have no choice but to take Boris's Deal.
All by 31st October.
Precisely. I can't see either 1. or 2. happening.
I may be wrong of course, I get that. But I don't think so.
Perhaps Corbyn will need to table a VNOC as soon as Parliament reassembles. If the EU can see that it stands a high probability of passing, they are unlikely to agree much with Johnson.
Corbyn will never table a VoNC. He's too scared of it passing. He might actually have to be a politician then.
Can Johnson table one in his own government?
In theory and formally, yes. But how it would play politically in practice is an interesting question.
For a start, it would break the convention that anyone voting for no confidence in their own side’s government automatically loses the whip! And if the whip is removed from anyone voting to have confidence in their own government, they risk looking (even more) ridiculous.
He can, but its a VoC rather than a VoNC. He should really have considered using it last week when seeking a GE. Just as Corbyn and Labour are a bunch of muppets who have shouted from the sidelines about a GE everyday for two years, then bottled it, the Cons really didn't try very hard to engineer a GE either.
If Johnson really wanted one, he should've: Laid down a FTPA GE bill. Laid down a VoC. Laid down a one line bill. (ie, does all three)
One of those three might've worked, and even if it didn't then it would provide endless hours of fun watching Corbyn troop into the 'Aye' lobby for a VoC.
Would people expect Labour politicians to privatise the NHS or reintroduce the death penalty, if the public had voted for it in a referendum? While I do think a referendum vote, on one hand, should be respected... there's also something quite frankly disturbing about MPs being expected to carry out policies they believe to be disastrous for their constituents.
Then they should resign. Oh wait. I see the flaw in this idea, namely that most MPs are more interested in the trough than actually doing what their constitents want.
In all honesty, your point was a good one, but had it been implemented I would've expected to see around 450MPs resigning on 24th June 2016. That they didn't, shows either that they're unprincipled chancers, don't actually think leaving the EU will be that bad, or had no intention of honouring the vote and instead stay in place to undermine it.
Any of those three could be true. The unprincipled chancers one I like the most however.
I'm no fan of Alex Salmond, but I do think he was right in saying that referendums should only be sought by governments seeking to *make a change to the status quo*. When you have a government lacking a majority, seeking to carry out a constitutional change which they previously argued against just three years ago, you end up in the current mess we have now. And I don't think opposition parties should be expected to help them out of it, no more than we expect them to vote for their Queen's Speech and legislation. Of course, to be consistent, I don't think Labour or any opposition party should have voted for the referendum to begin with. Nor voted for Article 50.
Can't disagree with this. I feel most sorry for Ed Miliband in all this. Cameron completely misread the public mood and paid too much attention to the polls. Believing only attacking the left (Chaos with EdM) AND the right (Offer a referendum) would see him largest party. Instead he ended up winning in 2015 based on something he really didn't want to implement. He should've just refused to offer one. It'd would have left UKIP on 16% instead, and the Cons on 34%. Hung Parliament and first thing he offers his Coalition partners instead (the DUP) is the Referendum promise.... really.... take it. I'll sacrifice that referendum for your support......
He was an idiot. Offered something he didn't want to do just to save his job. Irony of ironies, he didn't need to offer it afterall. His job was safe either way.
Danny Dyer got it right.
It went pear shaped for Cameron the moment he approved the attack dog tactics for the AV referendum, breaking his commitment to Clegg. Prior to that, he appeared to perceive the huge strategic advantage the coalition gave the Tories, the discontent of his own backbenches not withstanding.
Very few of these are Remainy. But some of them are, so let's say we need to get all the way up to target 70. You may think, "Con win Bolsover, WTF".
But leave the Con vote where it is, take 4% off the Lab vote and move it to each of LD, BXP and DNV and it's a Con Gain, and they didn't even need anybody going Con->Lab.
It seems to me that one of the (many) problems with our democratic politics these days is that nobody understands (or deliberately misrepresents) what a “mandate” from the electorate is. Essentially it is “permission” to pursue a certain course of action. It is not an instruction to pursue a course of action in all circumstances. It is not a course of action which has a right to be pursued without opposition. And it does not undermine Govt’s/politicians no1 responsibility to act first and for most in the interests of the country and/or the people they represent.
And as a consequence, politicians who pursue a course of action on the back of a democratic mandate have no right to blame the electorate if said course of action turns out to be a disaster and the electorate turns on them as a result.
Repulsive EU flags in The Last Night of The Proms.
The BBC needs to ban them, or stop broadcasting this.
Sad git
No. There comes a point where waving an EU flag is basic treachery. We have reached that point. Take away their flags, and lock them up. Enuff.
I think you need to have a lie down and think about the implication of that view.
Should you be allowed to wave, hoist or honour the EU flag in the UK?
It is the flag of our enemy, the ensign of a hostile power. As we execute Brexit. To me, waving it in the UK, at this juncture. is like waving the swastika during World War 2.
I accept others may be more tolerant, even now.
The EU has not killed or physically hurt anyone here. Neither are they stopping us leaving. We are stopping us leaving. You are making yourself look like a fool. Calm down, sober up, or stop trolling. These WW2 metaphors are deeply insulting to the millions who actually died during that conflict.
So are you just gonna forget the EU palm oil subsidy war which killed possibly 400 million in West Timor? Convenient.
I’m not writing this from East Timor, West Timor or any previously undocumented part of Timor. Read my post. Also, that is bollocks, and you know it. He idea that the EU was responsible for the deaths is questionable, the figure of 400 million is laughable. The population of the whole of Indonesia is about 250m. Like I say, sober up. Or stop trolling.
OK. Fair enough.
I may have overestimated the deaths of the EU palm subsidy war in West Timor, but do you accept it is near 10-15m? We can't just wash away atrocities like this, because they are committed by a polity you admire.
You also say the deaths are "questionable". WTF. No one denies Commisioner Huhneficker was implicated. This is absurd, and also really quite offensive to the poultry.
There was an actual war on Timor, which I generously thought you were referring to, but I see now I am being baited by a passed up troll. Awesome.
You actually thought there was an EU PALM OIL SUBSIDY WAR WHICH KILLED POSSIBLY 400M IN WEST TIMOR, A REGION HITHERTO UNKNOWN TO HUMANKIND, EVEN THOUGH YOU WENT AND GOOGLED IT
Impressively dim. Really, really impressive. Possibly Pulitzer prize-winning dim
Comments
This happened in Magill v Porter 2002 . If you’re old enough you might remember Dame Shirley Porter . The case centred on gerrymandering .
The Scottish Court highlighted that case.
Similarly here: there is a difference between those polls who prompt for BXP and those that do not, and there is a difference between those polls which take self-recall into account and those that do not. One of those options is wrong, the other is not.
But I don't know which is which...
You Tories always think your shit doesn't stink. But it does. Take some responsibility for once.
It's funny and totally relate-able in terms of where the country is with Brexit.
I'm not sure the partisans on the red side are actually seeing Boris the way a typical voter would.
Callaghan left high inflation and frequent strikes in 1979 and Brown left an economy in deep recession and high unemployment and a big deficit in 2010.
Unemployment is now lower than 2010 as is the deficit and the economy is still growing.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/Japanese_political_sound_truck.jpg/825px-Japanese_political_sound_truck.jpg
Con 33.6%
Lab 25.8%
LD 17.8%
BRX 12.0%
Grn 4.0%
SNP 4.0%
And put in electioncalculus with Scotland option you get
CON 341
LAB 206
LDEM 30
SNP 51
PC 3
Green 1
In all honesty, your point was a good one, but had it been implemented I would've expected to see around 450MPs resigning on 24th June 2016. That they didn't, shows either that they're unprincipled chancers, don't actually think leaving the EU will be that bad, or had no intention of honouring the vote and instead stay in place to undermine it.
Any of those three could be true. The unprincipled chancers one I like the most however. Can't disagree with this. I feel most sorry for Ed Miliband in all this. Cameron completely misread the public mood and paid too much attention to the polls. Believing only attacking the left (Chaos with EdM) AND the right (Offer a referendum) would see him largest party. Instead he ended up winning in 2015 based on something he really didn't want to implement. He should've just refused to offer one. It'd would have left UKIP on 16% instead, and the Cons on 34%. Hung Parliament and first thing he offers his Coalition partners instead (the DUP) is the Referendum promise.... really.... take it. I'll sacrifice that referendum for your support......
He was an idiot. Offered something he didn't want to do just to save his job. Irony of ironies, he didn't need to offer it afterall. His job was safe either way.
Danny Dyer got it right.
For a start, it would break the convention that anyone voting for no confidence in their own side’s government automatically loses the whip! And if the whip is removed from anyone voting to have confidence in their own government, they risk looking (even more) ridiculous.
He should really have considered using it last week when seeking a GE.
Just as Corbyn and Labour are a bunch of muppets who have shouted from the sidelines about a GE everyday for two years, then bottled it, the Cons really didn't try very hard to engineer a GE either.
If Johnson really wanted one, he should've:
Laid down a FTPA GE bill.
Laid down a VoC.
Laid down a one line bill. (ie, does all three)
One of those three might've worked, and even if it didn't then it would provide endless hours of fun watching Corbyn troop into the 'Aye' lobby for a VoC.
“That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”
See https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted#section-2-4
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
Very few of these are Remainy. But some of them are, so let's say we need to get all the way up to target 70. You may think, "Con win Bolsover, WTF".
But leave the Con vote where it is, take 4% off the Lab vote and move it to each of LD, BXP and DNV and it's a Con Gain, and they didn't even need anybody going Con->Lab.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/constituencies/uk-parliament/bolsover
And as a consequence, politicians who pursue a course of action on the back of a democratic mandate have no right to blame the electorate if said course of action turns out to be a disaster and the electorate turns on them as a result.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/14/to-see-how-extremism-has-taken-root-in-britain-look-at-islington-north