Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
Tories still ahead in voteshare at least and I would point out in 2017 Comres had a Tory lead of 10% in its last poll while Opinium had a Tory lead of just 7%, so it was Opinium most accurate.
I reckon this is spin to persuade the ERG to back a deal.
Remainer MPs are secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month, the Government warned on Saturday night.
If no deal can be agreed with EU leaders by October, Downing Street sources say a “Remain alliance” of MPs in the Commons will try to force through new legislation to stop Brexit altogether.
If they do that we should just burn the place down.
Nope - revoke allows an election to occur and for us to then try to leave the EU a second time with an actual plan that the party in power supports and votes through.
Leaving makes returning to the EU more difficult. If revoke / No Deal decision is required prior to a general election revoking is the saner option (and let’s be honest won’t do the BXP any harm).
If we revoke those in power will make sure we never have the chance to Leave again. They won't make the same mistake (as they see it) again. But of course you already know this.
Thank god.
I will be thanking someone when they burn down Parliament.
I reckon this is spin to persuade the ERG to back a deal.
Remainer MPs are secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month, the Government warned on Saturday night.
If no deal can be agreed with EU leaders by October, Downing Street sources say a “Remain alliance” of MPs in the Commons will try to force through new legislation to stop Brexit altogether.
If they do that we should just burn the place down.
Nope - revoke allows an election to occur and for us to then try to leave the EU a second time with an actual plan that the party in power supports and votes through.
Leaving makes returning to the EU more difficult. If revoke / No Deal decision is required prior to a general election revoking is the saner option (and let’s be honest won’t do the BXP any harm).
If we revoke those in power will make sure we never have the chance to Leave again. They won't make the same mistake (as they see it) again. But of course you already know this.
Thank god.
I will be thanking someone when they burn down Parliament.
Repulsive EU flags in The Last Night of The Proms.
The BBC needs to ban them, or stop broadcasting this.
Sad git
No. There comes a point where waving an EU flag is basic treachery. We have reached that point. Take away their flags, and lock them up. Enuff.
I think you need to have a lie down and think about the implication of that view.
Should you be allowed to wave, hoist or honour the EU flag in the UK?
It is the flag of our enemy, the ensign of a hostile power. As we execute Brexit. To me, waving it in the UK, at this juncture. is like waving the swastika during World War 2.
I accept others may be more tolerant, even now.
I'm wary of suggesting peopple cannot really believe their own words, no matter how extreme, but come on, that's too silly to possibly be sincere.
This so like a Sean T late at night after one too many bottles of expensive wine. Of course it's not because Byronic has told us so and we all believe him
I'm slightly worried about the transitioning male model formerly known as, I make that 3 nights in a row he's gone off on bevvy infused rants. SeanT was much more continent in the good old days.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
Tories still ahead in voteshare at least and I would point out in 2017 Comres had a Tory lead of 10% in its last poll while Opinium had a Tory lead of just 7%, so it was Opinium most accurate.
So are you saying that ComRes tends to overstate the Tory vote share?
I reckon this is spin to persuade the ERG to back a deal.
Remainer MPs are secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month, the Government warned on Saturday night.
If no deal can be agreed with EU leaders by October, Downing Street sources say a “Remain alliance” of MPs in the Commons will try to force through new legislation to stop Brexit altogether.
If they do that we should just burn the place down.
Nope - revoke allows an election to occur and for us to then try to leave the EU a second time with an actual plan that the party in power supports and votes through.
Leaving makes returning to the EU more difficult. If revoke / No Deal decision is required prior to a general election revoking is the saner option (and let’s be honest won’t do the BXP any harm).
If we revoke those in power will make sure we never have the chance to Leave again. They won't make the same mistake (as they see it) again. But of course you already know this.
Thank god.
I will be thanking someone when they burn down Parliament.
I’m not sure what that means.
It means when democracy is dead its symbols hold no further value.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
I reckon this is spin to persuade the ERG to back a deal.
Remainer MPs are secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month, the Government warned on Saturday night.
If no deal can be agreed with EU leaders by October, Downing Street sources say a “Remain alliance” of MPs in the Commons will try to force through new legislation to stop Brexit altogether.
If they do that we should just burn the place down.
Nope - revoke allows an election to occur and for us to then try to leave the EU a second time with an actual plan that the party in power supports and votes through.
Leaving makes returning to the EU more difficult. If revoke / No Deal decision is required prior to a general election revoking is the saner option (and let’s be honest won’t do the BXP any harm).
If we revoke those in power will make sure we never have the chance to Leave again. They won't make the same mistake (as they see it) again. But of course you already know this.
Thank god.
I will be thanking someone when they burn down Parliament.
I’m not sure what that means.
It means when democracy is dead its symbols hold no further value.
In contrast to Opinium, the ComRes gives anti-No Deal parties the highest combined share they’ve ever had from any pollster. I like it, but I doubt it’s a true reflection of what’s going on.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
True . If there’s an election and the UK is still in the EU there could be some very bizarre results across the country .
Provided the Tories get a deal, ie without a GB backstop, then most voters bar a few No Deal and Brexit Party diehards will be happy with that. It likely takes a Tory majority free of the DUP to deliver it though
The existing WA has a lengthy transition period during which the UK remains a full member of the SM and has to accept Freedom of Movement but has no say in any part of the EU's decision making process even though our financial obligations remain.
So in effect we wouldn't leave until perhaps 1/4/21. I imagine if you explain that to those who think we will actually leave completely on 31/10/19 you may not get the positive reaction you imagine.
That aspect of any WA has been kept under wraps deliberately by Boris and his supporters.
The EU has been giving extension periods they have never extended the transition period it still ends dec 2020.
That's a consequence of the financial settlement. If you change the end date, you open up that can of worms.
The solution is, and always has been, a phased approach over four or five years, which allows us to leave things like the CAP and CFP immediately, and with the Customs Union going last. In this way, you remove the need for the backstop as there's plenty of time to implement technology in Northern Ireland.
Nice to see rcs1000 confirm he’s more a PHB than one someone close to the technology.
Of course I'm a PHB!
Worse, I'm a PHB who thinks who knows everything about techology. That is, without a doubt, the very worse kind of PHB.
Repulsive EU flags in The Last Night of The Proms.
The BBC needs to ban them, or stop broadcasting this.
Sad git
No. There comes a point where waving an EU flag is basic treachery. We have reached that point. Take away their flags, and lock them up. Enuff.
I think you need to have a lie down and think about the implication of that view.
Should you be allowed to wave, hoist or honour the EU flag in the UK?
It is the flag of our enemy, the ensign of a hostile power. As we execute Brexit. To me, waving it in the UK, at this juncture. is like waving the swastika during World War 2.
I accept others may be more tolerant, even now.
I'm wary of suggesting peopple cannot really believe their own words, no matter how extreme, but come on, that's too silly to possibly be sincere.
This so like a Sean T late at night after one too many bottles of expensive wine. Of course it's not because Byronic has told us so and we all believe him
I'm slightly worried about the transitioning male model formerly known as, I make that 3 nights in a row he's gone off on bevvy infused rants. SeanT was much more continent in the good old days.
Ok, a bit more continent.
The switch in accounts seems to have induced a sobriety that has taken a few months to wear off.
It's curious there's such consistent belief parliament cannot be trusted to do the right thing, when it has worked so hard to stop no deal, something a lot of people think is the right thing - no gratitude then.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
You don't seem to have the same definition of respect as I do if you think that means you are supposed to support the winning party simply because they won.
That said, I remember 2015 being pretty hilarious when Caroline Lucas was ranting about how hated the Tories were when they were the most popular single party in the country, and certainly more popular than hers, even as she attempted to posture as the voice of the people.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
It is weird. It's not unusual for polls to have different percentages for the parties. But usually if a party goes up or down this is picked up across the board. It's strange to have polls going in opposite directions.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
In a democracy you have to respect the result of elections and referendums even if you don't agree with those results. If Corbyn becomes PM after the next election I'll respect the result, even though I don't agree with his policies.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
Because you live in a democracy?
That’s why I’ll moan but move on ! I accept the UK will be leaving , that’s sufficient why do I need to respect it.
82% of Leave voters think Parliament is respecting the referendum ? But only 4% of Brexit Party supporters.?
Given 46% of Remain voters think it is respecting the referendum, and Remainers are 48% of the population, that gets you above the 19% on its own.
Basically, those numbers are shit.
He's posted an update saying that the leave and remain % are for people who think Parliament ISN'T respecting the referendum, which still isn't consistent with the 19%
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
Because you live in a democracy?
That’s why I’ll moan but move on ! I accept the UK will be leaving , that’s sufficient why do I need to respect it.
That's fair enough. No reason you can't campaign for it to be reversed, but to attempt to thwart its implementation in the first place...
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
You don't respect "the Leave vote". You respect democracy. Otherwise we are all finished.
I utterly loathe Jeremy Corbyn. I despise him as a querulous old fool, and I believe he is surrounded by even more dangerous and malign forces.
And yet, if he wins an election, I will stifle my fears, and accept the vote, because the alternative - annulling democracy - is even worse.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
In a democracy you have to respect the result of elections and referendums even if you don't agree with those results. If Corbyn becomes PM after the next election I'll respect the result, even though I don't agree with his policies.
Nonsense. It was a flawed referendum which gives no mandate for anything.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
In a democracy you have to respect the result of elections and referendums even if you don't agree with those results. If Corbyn becomes PM after the next election I'll respect the result, even though I don't agree with his policies.
Agreed.
The thing that scares me is that if we end up with four parties around 20-25%, the you might end up with some extremely disproportional results.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
In a democracy you have to respect the result of elections and referendums even if you don't agree with those results. If Corbyn becomes PM after the next election I'll respect the result, even though I don't agree with his policies.
Agreed.
The thing that scares me is that if we end up with four parties around 20-25%, the you might end up with some extremely disproportional results.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
You don't respect "the Leave vote". You respect democracy. Otherwise we are all finished.
I utterly loathe Jeremy Corbyn. I despise him as a querulous old fool, and I believe he is surrounded by even more dangerous and malign forces.
And yet, if he wins an election, I will stifle my fears, and accept the vote, because the alternative - annulling democracy - is even worse.
Yes but you wouldn't tell everyone that they should work hard to help implement his manifesto.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
It is weird. It's not unusual for polls to have different percentages for the parties. But usually if a party goes up or down this is picked up across the board. It's strange to have polls going in opposite directions.
I don't know if I am typical, but I change my mind about which party to vote for every time I think about it. Maybe the wild swings are simply because nobody has made their mind up yet?
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
but to attempt to thwart its implementation in the first place...
...is also valid. I get my say and I get my vote. My choice is to stop Brexit. And I don't get zero votes, or 0.8 votes, or 2 votes. I get 1 vote, the same as everyone else. And how I use it is ultimately up to me.
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
It is weird. It's not unusual for polls to have different percentages for the parties. But usually if a party goes up or down this is picked up across the board. It's strange to have polls going in opposite directions.
I don't know if I am typical, but I change my mind about which party to vote for every time I think about it. Maybe the wild swings are simply because nobody has made their mind up yet?
There probably is summat in that. The situation is very fluid. Only during an actual campaign will minds be focussed properly.
but to attempt to thwart its implementation in the first place...
...is also valid. I get my say and I get my vote. My choice is to stop Brexit. And I don't get zero votes, or 0.8 votes, or 2 votes. I get 1 vote, the same as everyone else. And how I use it is ultimately up to me.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
You don't respect "the Leave vote". You respect democracy. Otherwise we are all finished.
I utterly loathe Jeremy Corbyn. I despise him as a querulous old fool, and I believe he is surrounded by even more dangerous and malign forces.
And yet, if he wins an election, I will stifle my fears, and accept the vote, because the alternative - annulling democracy - is even worse.
So you’ll moan a bit and then move on ! I will accept a deal but no deal absolutely not because if Vote Leave had said that was a possibility they wouldn’t have won.
Similarly if Remain had won and then decided to see that as a green light for the Euro I would have been very unhappy .
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
It is weird. It's not unusual for polls to have different percentages for the parties. But usually if a party goes up or down this is picked up across the board. It's strange to have polls going in opposite directions.
Changes of +/- 1 or 2% could easily be random variation. The only potentially significant change is the +3% for the LibDems in the most recent poll - but the fact that their rating has dropped in the earlier poll suggests that this too might be MoE.
The more concerning thing for the pollsters is the absolute disparity between the pictures they are painting. Doubtless the differences in methodology - false recall, shy voters, inclination to vote, and prompting or not for the smaller parties - are largely to blame, but it is impossibly to get any sort of fix on whose approach is most reliable.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
True . If there’s an election and the UK is still in the EU there could be some very bizarre results across the country .
A lot of MPs who thought that they had safe seats will be getting a bit sweaty, whether Labour Leave seats or Tory Remain voting ones. Add in the Independents and there are a lot of folk who would find a prompt election rather inconvenient.
With the Proroguation standing there are only 4 Thursdays before Christmas availible. It looks like 2020 to me, whether Extension or No Deal. On the other hand, no one is truly in control of events.
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Labour and Lib Dem MPs were elected to oppose a Tory Brexit.
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Yes but. That is the binary view of 2 party government/opposition. We are more moving to a situation where that will become rare, and coalitions the norm. Seldom will anyone be implementing a manifesto, and there will rarely be a winning party.
I reckon this is spin to persuade the ERG to back a deal.
Remainer MPs are secretly plotting to revoke Article 50 and stop the UK leaving the European Union at the end of next month, the Government warned on Saturday night.
If no deal can be agreed with EU leaders by October, Downing Street sources say a “Remain alliance” of MPs in the Commons will try to force through new legislation to stop Brexit altogether.
If they do that we should just burn the place down.
Nope - revoke allows an election to occur and for us to then try to leave the EU a second time with an actual plan that the party in power supports and votes through.
Leaving makes returning to the EU more difficult. If revoke / No Deal decision is required prior to a general election revoking is the saner option (and let’s be honest won’t do the BXP any harm).
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
In a democracy you have to respect the result of elections and referendums even if you don't agree with those results. If Corbyn becomes PM after the next election I'll respect the result, even though I don't agree with his policies.
Agreed.
The thing that scares me is that if we end up with four parties around 20-25%, the you might end up with some extremely disproportional results.
Bit of fun. Put straight 23 into Baxter. Comes out Lab 227 Con 210 LD 97 BP 47
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
I assume that your 12% refers to this one, which no-one else here seems to be talking about (although they may have been if it was out earlier today.)
In early August Opinium and Com Res both had the Tories on 31%. Now one has them on 37% and the other on 28%. It is just bizarre. I think the best explanation of that is that we can't give one.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
I assume that your 12% refers to this one, which no-one else here seems to be talking about (although they may have been if it was out earlier today.)
In early August Opinium and Com Res both had the Tories on 31%. Now one has them on 37% and the other on 28%. It is just bizarre. I think the best explanation of that is that we can't give one.
One is, possibly what another poster mentioned occurring on here , too. Wild swings of emotion, of hope and despair, for both sides.
but to attempt to thwart its implementation in the first place...
...is also valid. I get my say and I get my vote. My choice is to stop Brexit. And I don't get zero votes, or 0.8 votes, or 2 votes. I get 1 vote, the same as everyone else. And how I use it is ultimately up to me.
*The 17.4m who voted for Brexit wave*
You think for some reason that I should change my mind because of that? I think they were wrong (and some of them even agree with me now!), and that is my prerogative. If you think I am not allowed my opinion any more, and not allowed to campaign for it, then you don't understand that democracy is a process.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
A curveball could get thrown into proceedings next week depending on what the Supreme Court do .
The odds favour the court to strike down the Scottish Court decision but we live in strange times .
I can't talk about the likelihood of this case, and if you aren't legally qualified it it rash for you to assume that it's likely overturned. What are the stats on successful appeals? I'd guess it's way below half, perhaps a third.
Would people expect Labour politicians to privatise the NHS or reintroduce the death penalty, if the public had voted for it in a referendum? While I do think a referendum vote, on one hand, should be respected... there's also something quite frankly disturbing about MPs being expected to carry out policies they believe to be disastrous for their constituents. I'm no fan of Alex Salmond, but I do think he was right in saying that referendums should only be sought by governments seeking to *make a change to the status quo*. When you have a government lacking a majority, seeking to carry out a constitutional change which they previously argued against just three years ago, you end up in the current mess we have now. And I don't think opposition parties should be expected to help them out of it, no more than we expect them to vote for their Queen's Speech and legislation. Of course, to be consistent, I don't think Labour or any opposition party should have voted for the referendum to begin with. Nor voted for Article 50.
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Labour and Lib Dem MPs were elected to oppose a Tory Brexit.
Labour MPs can campaign for single market and customs union membership in the future relationship after they have passed the withdrawal agreement first which still needs to be passed whatever that future relationship is, even BINO
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
Probably both polls are wrong - we simply do not know!
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Labour and Lib Dem MPs were elected to oppose a Tory Brexit.
Labour MPs can campaign for single market and customs union membership in the future relationship after they have passed the withdrawal agreement first which still needs to be passed whatever that future relationship is, even BINO
Nope. They will do what they were elected to do.
The fact your party cant agree amongst yourselves is your own problem.
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Labour and Lib Dem MPs were elected to oppose a Tory Brexit.
Labour MPs can campaign for single market and customs union membership in the future relationship after they have passed the withdrawal agreement first which still needs to be passed whatever that future relationship is, even BINO
Nope. They will do what they were elected to do.
The fact your party cant agree amongst yourselves is your own problem.
They were elected to deliver Brexit, they have refused to do so, even when some represent seats where over 60% voted Leave.
Though I do agree all Tory candidates at the next general election must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and Boris and Cummings are correctly ensuring that will be the case, including deselecting existing Tory MPs who refuse to commit to that pledge
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
Seriously though there are some huge differences in the polling. No doubt the BBC Tory shills will make sure they report the best poll for them .
It's weird - not even a consistent trend within polls. The Tories are up, or possibly down. The LibDems are down, or possibly up. The Tories are 12 points ahead, or 1 point ahead. And it's conference season, which will mess everything up for 3 weeks irrespective of what else is happening. What a good thing that we don't bet on these things, eh?
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
It is weird. It's not unusual for polls to have different percentages for the parties. But usually if a party goes up or down this is picked up across the board. It's strange to have polls going in opposite directions.
Changes of +/- 1 or 2% could easily be random variation. The only potentially significant change is the +3% for the LibDems in the most recent poll - but the fact that their rating has dropped in the earlier poll suggests that this too might be MoE.
The more concerning thing for the pollsters is the absolute disparity between the pictures they are painting. Doubtless the differences in methodology - false recall, shy voters, inclination to vote, and prompting or not for the smaller parties - are largely to blame, but it is impossibly to get any sort of fix on whose approach is most reliable.
Opinium has seen Conservative vote share increase by four percentage points over the last month. Comres decrease by three percentage points. There have been intervening polls from each polling company that support those disparate trends.
I don't think your points explain what we are seeing.
I assume all Tory MPs would vote in favour of every manifesto commitment of the winning party when they are eventually in opposition? Otherwise they could be accused of not respecting democracy.
No but by definition they would be in opposition anyway as the winning party would form the government with a mandate to implement its manifesto. If they stopped MPs from the winning party taking their seats in the Commons that would be a different matter
Labour and Lib Dem MPs were elected to oppose a Tory Brexit.
Labour MPs can campaign for single market and customs union membership in the future relationship after they have passed the withdrawal agreement first which still needs to be passed whatever that future relationship is, even BINO
Nope. They will do what they were elected to do.
The fact your party cant agree amongst yourselves is your own problem.
They were elected to deliver Brexit, they have refused to do so, even when some represent seats where over 60% voted Leave.
Though I do agree all Tory candidates at the next general election must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and Boris and Cummings are correctly ensuring that will be the case, including deselecting existing Tory MPs who refuse to commit to that pledge
Just because they are not doing what YOU want them to do doesn’t mean they are not doing what they were elected to do.
They were elected to deliver their version of Brexit. In absence of that; they do what they believe is in the best interests of their constituents.
I repeat, just because they wont bail out your pathetic excuse for a political party doesn’t make them any less competent or honorable.
The term one nation conservative is bandied around a lot without any description of what it means.
Disraeli used it because he thought that the patriots at the top and bottom of society had more in common with each other than either did with those in the middle - the professional middle classes. Given the Conservatives' success post-1918 he appears to have had some foresight.
McMillan is also often referred to as a one nation conservative. As a 1st world war soldier he had great respect for the bravery of working class troops, not least the miners in the battle of the Somme, something he pointedly remarked during the strike under Thatcher.
Have there been many of the recent generation who could be described similarly?
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
It's never a good idea to look at polls in isolation. If you take an average of the latest polls it would probably give a pretty good indication of how the parties are doing.
Polls published over the last 7 days, averages:
Con 33.6% Lab 25.8% LD 17.8% BRX 12.0% Grn 4.0% SNP 4.0%
A curveball could get thrown into proceedings next week depending on what the Supreme Court do .
The odds favour the court to strike down the Scottish Court decision but we live in strange times .
I can't talk about the likelihood of this case, and if you aren't legally qualified it it rash for you to assume that it's likely overturned. What are the stats on successful appeals? I'd guess it's way below half, perhaps a third.
I’m not qualified as a lawyer but followed the original Gina Miller case obsessively , reading the full daily transcripts . The judges are very cagey in their questioning but you can get a sense of where they’re thinking might be going .
The odds I talk of aren’t my opinion.
They could find the prorogation was lawful but criticize the motives . The general public though are unlikely to look at the minutae of the opinion .
The judges who are ruling include some who ruled in the GM case , if they were sympathetic to that case they’re more likely to be here too because both deal with the Royal Perogative and both deal with how much power the executive should have .
Of the new intake I’m pretty certain there’s another sympathetic member as that judge before he moved to the SC also ruled on the original high court decision which the government then took to appeal at the SC .
4 of the current judges supported GM .
The two judges who dissented on the GM case are very unlikely to support this case.
So currently I have a 5 to 2 split in terms of leaning a certain way in terms of attitudes to the RP and executive power .
I’ve looked up quite a few of the case law which was involved in the Scottish Court decision .
I’ve also looked at previous opinions of the judges and their writings to see how sympathetic they are in these parliament v executive type scenarios .
Of course being sympathetic doesn’t mean they’ll support the Scottish Court decision just that they might be more open to their arguments .
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
The polls are very unhelpful now - hard to believe that they can all be correct when they are so different. There must be serious issues with methodology somewhere - this has gone on for a while now and it really is not good enough. I'm glad I don't gamble!
They are all a load of bloody rubbish, and entirely irrelevant until we see the outcome of Brexit on 31 October. The tragic fanboys on here will cheer and wince with every passing survey, but anyone vaguely sensible will ignore them.
There aren't /any/ sensible people on here.
Where the PM is on the front of the MoS invoking the Incredible Hulk, you need to define Sensible. maybe the Telegraph? At what point do Conservative party activists preparing leaflets with enough credibility to get someone elected cringe at the front page of the telegraph and find it unhelpful?
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think Tories tend to cringe or feel shame. I mean, they're usually burning banknotes in front of rough sleepers, or ruining the country, depending on how well they shin up the greasy pole. They are a clawing mass of dead-eyed waxwork psychos.
Comments
Ok, a bit more continent.
My theory FWIW: the Tories are making the weather, and have a genuine lead at the moment, but it's fragile. We actually don't have much clue what will happen if (a) Johnson proposes a compromise next month (giving Farage a fresh wind) or (b) we crash out.
Worse, I'm a PHB who thinks who knows everything about techology. That is, without a doubt, the very worse kind of PHB.
As of last month it was still leaking and they couldn’t find out why. Hopefully the Atlantic crossing implies that this is now sorted.
I despise Brexit and hope it crashes and burns . It’s like saying I need to respect the Tories if they win an election . Why should I , am I supposed to suddenly become a supporter of a different party because they won.
However if a deal and orderly exit happens then I’ll continue moaning but move on !
Basically, those numbers are shit.
That said, I remember 2015 being pretty hilarious when Caroline Lucas was ranting about how hated the Tories were when they were the most popular single party in the country, and certainly more popular than hers, even as she attempted to posture as the voice of the people.
I utterly loathe Jeremy Corbyn. I despise him as a querulous old fool, and I believe he is surrounded by even more dangerous and malign forces.
And yet, if he wins an election, I will stifle my fears, and accept the vote, because the alternative - annulling democracy - is even worse.
It literally tastes of nothing. I do not understand why anyone would order it.
The thing that scares me is that if we end up with four parties around 20-25%, the you might end up with some extremely disproportional results.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7464573/David-Cameron-campaign-rebel-Tory-army-Boris-forces-stand-independents.html#comments
I get my say and I get my vote. My choice is to stop Brexit. And I don't get zero votes, or 0.8 votes, or 2 votes. I get 1 vote, the same as everyone else. And how I use it is ultimately up to me.
Similarly if Remain had won and then decided to see that as a green light for the Euro I would have been very unhappy .
The more concerning thing for the pollsters is the absolute disparity between the pictures they are painting. Doubtless the differences in methodology - false recall, shy voters, inclination to vote, and prompting or not for the smaller parties - are largely to blame, but it is impossibly to get any sort of fix on whose approach is most reliable.
With the Proroguation standing there are only 4 Thursdays before Christmas availible. It looks like 2020 to me, whether Extension or No Deal. On the other hand, no one is truly in control of events.
Seldom will anyone be implementing a manifesto, and there will rarely be a winning party.
https://twitter.com/libdempress/status/1172986927064240128?s=21
Lab 227
Con 210
LD 97
BP 47
Gotta love FPTP!!
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1172950462137585670
In early August Opinium and Com Res both had the Tories on 31%. Now one has them on 37% and the other on 28%. It is just bizarre. I think the best explanation of that is that we can't give one.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WBj3WvNVLzs
I think they were wrong (and some of them even agree with me now!), and that is my prerogative.
If you think I am not allowed my opinion any more, and not allowed to campaign for it, then you don't understand that democracy is a process.
You can't prorogue my vote.
The odds favour the court to strike down the Scottish Court decision but we live in strange times .
I'm no fan of Alex Salmond, but I do think he was right in saying that referendums should only be sought by governments seeking to *make a change to the status quo*. When you have a government lacking a majority, seeking to carry out a constitutional change which they previously argued against just three years ago, you end up in the current mess we have now. And I don't think opposition parties should be expected to help them out of it, no more than we expect them to vote for their Queen's Speech and legislation. Of course, to be consistent, I don't think Labour or any opposition party should have voted for the referendum to begin with. Nor voted for Article 50.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1173005375559413765?s=19
The fact your party cant agree amongst yourselves is your own problem.
Though I do agree all Tory candidates at the next general election must commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal and Boris and Cummings are correctly ensuring that will be the case, including deselecting existing Tory MPs who refuse to commit to that pledge
In terms of help, can you fill me in on the leaker to the MOS who cost ambassador his job, who was arrested for it in the end, and who was appointed new ambassador (after May was warmed to hold off) I must have missed the conclusion to all that.
I don't think your points explain what we are seeing.
They were elected to deliver their version of Brexit. In absence of that; they do what they believe is in the best interests of their constituents.
I repeat, just because they wont bail out your pathetic excuse for a political party doesn’t make them any less competent or honorable.
Disraeli used it because he thought that the patriots at the top and bottom of society had more in common with each other than either did with those in the middle - the professional middle classes. Given the Conservatives' success post-1918 he appears to have had some foresight.
McMillan is also often referred to as a one nation conservative. As a 1st world war soldier he had great respect for the bravery of working class troops, not least the miners in the battle of the Somme, something he pointedly remarked during the strike under Thatcher.
Have there been many of the recent generation who could be described similarly?
Polls published over the last 7 days, averages:
Con 33.6%
Lab 25.8%
LD 17.8%
BRX 12.0%
Grn 4.0%
SNP 4.0%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
The odds I talk of aren’t my opinion.
They could find the prorogation was lawful but criticize the motives . The general public though are unlikely to look at the minutae of the opinion .
The judges who are ruling include some who ruled in the GM case , if they were sympathetic to that case they’re more likely to be here too because both deal with the Royal Perogative and both deal with how much power the executive should have .
Of the new intake I’m pretty certain there’s another sympathetic member as that judge before he moved to the SC also ruled on the original high court decision which the government then took to appeal at the SC .
4 of the current judges supported GM .
The two judges who dissented on the GM case are very unlikely to support this case.
So currently I have a 5 to 2 split in terms of leaning a certain way in terms of attitudes to the RP and executive power .
I’ve looked up quite a few of the case law which was involved in the Scottish Court decision .
I’ve also looked at previous opinions of the judges and their writings to see how sympathetic they are in these parliament v executive type scenarios .
Of course being sympathetic doesn’t mean they’ll support the Scottish Court decision just that they might be more open to their arguments .
It is of course entirely reasonable to disagree fundamentally with the government's actions whilst accepting it WAS legal.