Nevertheless a narrowing of the Tory tent of potential significance
I doubt 1 voter in 10 in Gyimah own constituency would know who he is never mind the wider public.
He was part of Camerons failed experiment which has brought nothing but discord to the party.
The LD's will find out soon enough just what sort of politicians they are collecting once the likes of Gymiah, Soubry, Grieve etc arrive on their doorstep.
I think at the moment the Lib Dem leadership holds all the cards over the defectors. Even Chukka could not get a seat with a decent chance of a Lib Dem win. After the next GE I would not be at all surprised if the Lib Dems increase their seats but every defector gets a P45 from the voters.
Will any of the Grievers not defect to the LDs? Besides Grieve himself I assume.
I would personally pay for Grieve's LD Membership fee myself
Surely paying money to another political party and the implicit support it infers is grounds for your expulsion from the Conservative party !!
HYUFD now supports the LibDems ....
Given it would ensure a proper Tory MP replaces him I think not
What is the definition of a proper Tory MP ?
One who will deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal
There is more to life than that it actually is meaningless as there is no deal and he can’t no deal but apart from promising money to marginal constituencies what do the Tories stand for
Will any of the Grievers not defect to the LDs? Besides Grieve himself I assume.
I would personally pay for Grieve's LD Membership fee myself
Surely paying money to another political party and the implicit support it infers is grounds for your expulsion from the Conservative party !!
HYUFD now supports the LibDems ....
Given it would ensure a proper Tory MP replaces him I think not
What is the definition of a proper Tory MP ?
Supports Boris (it's not about loyalty to the party given the history JRM, Baker and, well, Boris. Oh wait I forget, their rebellions aren't as bad). Adopts the same policy as the Brexit Party (nothing more Tory than voting Brexit Party).
Not quite, the Brexit Party Policy is Brexit with No Deal (they leave out the Deal bit even if the EU agree to remove the backstop)
Wollaston and Lee and Gyimah now gone (with Soubry and Allen in CUK), just got Grieve, Greening and Bebb to go LD and the Tories will finally be diehard Remainer free! Hooray!
Soon your colleagues will be sending you the Black Spot as the only remainer left in the village...
Ex Remainers who respect the Leave vote and back Boris and Brexit Deal or No Deal like myself, Javid and Hancock and Williamson are welcome
Corbyn and McDonnell would resign and let a moderate team take over the leadership of the Labour Party if they had any self-awareness of the terrible state the party is in with numbers like this.
I think it is the case that there are only 4 LD MPs who survived the 2015 cull: Brake, Lamb, Farron and Carmichael. What a time it must be for them to see things potentially turning around - a shame for those that are not standing again to not see the recovery as a colleague in the 2019/20 GE.
Nevertheless a narrowing of the Tory tent of potential significance
I doubt 1 voter in 10 in Gyimah own constituency would know who he is never mind the wider public.
He was part of Camerons failed experiment which has brought nothing but discord to the party.
The LD's will find out soon enough just what sort of politicians they are collecting once the likes of Gymiah, Soubry, Grieve etc arrive on their doorstep.
Grieve will not defect. He is a Tory. And he will stand as an Independent Tory. So might Soubry.
According to EC rules they will not be allowed to.
There is more to life than that it actually is meaningless as there is no deal and he can’t no deal but apart from promising money to marginal constituencies what do the Tories stand for
Nothing in politics matters right now other than Brexit.
Getting a deal done.
Winning the GE.
Scotland being supported in their push for independence.
This will ensure a Tory hegemony in England for generations.
Corbyn and McDonnell would resign and let a moderate team take over the leadership of the Labour Party if they had any self-awareness of the terrible state the party is in with numbers like this.
They've seen numbers like it before and it turned out fine as far as their leadership of the party was concerned. Of course it is not actually precisely the same because of the LD score, nor have they any guarantee of overturning such numbers, but of course they will ignore it.
And we will see how those numbers hold up when Boris fails to see us out by November.
Corbyn and McDonnell would resign and let a moderate team take over the leadership of the Labour Party if they had any self-awareness of the terrible state the party is in with numbers like this.
They would never have entered the 2007 and 2015 leadership contests in the first place if they had those characteristics.
(In fairness, Macdonnell is many things but not stupid, but Corbyn...oh my goodness, Corbyn...)
Either there is something wrong with the model's Scottish projections or PB'ers are too lazy to use the provision to make a separate Scottish VI input. With the SNP significant in so many seats, using only the UK wide model isn't really sensible
There is more to life than that it actually is meaningless as there is no deal and he can’t no deal but apart from promising money to marginal constituencies what do the Tories stand for
Nothing in politics matters right now other than Brexit.
Getting a deal done.
Winning the GE.
Scotland being supported in their push for independence.
This will ensure a Tory hegemony in England for generations.
Well that’s one, mindless opinion, maybe you should get yourself on the Tory party approved candidate list they are looking for talent such as your goodself
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 122 on tonight's Opinium poll.
Bring back JackW's ARSE. At least Jack was honest that it was a joke. Electoral Calculus is political comedy in the current situation and I'm amazed that the esteemed Mr Baxter allows it to stay up tbh.
There is more to life than that it actually is meaningless as there is no deal and he can’t no deal but apart from promising money to marginal constituencies what do the Tories stand for
Nothing in politics matters right now other than Brexit.
Getting a deal done.
Winning the GE.
Scotland being supported in their push for independence.
This will ensure a Tory hegemony in England for generations.
Labour has not won a majority south of Hadrian's Wall since Tony Blair was prime minister, so perhaps not very many generations. And that is without the electorate punishing the Conservatives for Brexit when Project Fear turns out to have had a point after all.
There is more to life than that it actually is meaningless as there is no deal and he can’t no deal but apart from promising money to marginal constituencies what do the Tories stand for
Nothing in politics matters right now other than Brexit.
Getting a deal done.
Winning the GE.
Scotland being supported in their push for independence.
This will ensure a Tory hegemony in England for generations.
Yes, Labour has not won a majority south of Hadrian's Wall since Tony Blair was prime minister, so perhaps not very many generations. And that is without the electorate punishing the Conservatives for Brexit when Project Fear turns out to have had a point after all.
What you talking about? I live north of Hadrian’s Wall and there’s still 55 miles of England to the north of me.
11% of Liberal Democrat MPs are black. And people used to say barely a month ago they had no MPs from the ethnic minorities. That's a rapid improvement. How did they do it ?
Some ways of stating ratios are more useful than others . Do you think it useful to say that Jesus was betrayed by 8.3% of his disciples?
That is an interesting statistic because it shows their limitations. Arguably 100% of the disciples betrayed Jesus. After all, they all fled when he was arrested (discounting John's claim that Peter put up a fight and was ordered to stop). But one of them betrayed him rather more spectacularly than the others.
If the GE is held off for a time, and with the Tories polling well it probably will be, with O'Mara renew his earlier promise to quit?
If you could keep on taking a salary for doing no work, especially if you had no prospect of finding alternative employment because a simple google search reveals you to be a prime t**t, would you quit?
A crying shame he can't be recalled. Failure to appear / vote should be added to the recall of MPs act.
If the GE is held off for a time, and with the Tories polling well it probably will be, with O'Mara renew his earlier promise to quit?
If you could keep on taking a salary for doing no work, especially if you had no prospect of finding alternative employment because a simple google search reveals you to be a prime t**t, would you quit?
A crying shame he can't be recalled. Failure to appear / vote should be added to the recall of MPs act.
It is faintly bizarre to reflect O'Mara has shown himself to be a violent, racist, misogynist liar who is taking money for doing no work and who is so hated even his own twitter account is full of bile aimed at him.
And yet arguably he's still not as bad as Ian Lavery.
If the GE is held off for a time, and with the Tories polling well it probably will be, with O'Mara renew his earlier promise to quit?
If you could keep on taking a salary for doing no work, especially if you had no prospect of finding alternative employment because a simple google search reveals you to be a prime t**t, would you quit?
If the GE is held off for a time, and with the Tories polling well it probably will be, with O'Mara renew his earlier promise to quit?
If you could keep on taking a salary for doing no work, especially if you had no prospect of finding alternative employment because a simple google search reveals you to be a prime t**t, would you quit?
Certainly not, that's why I haven't!
Oh come on, you're not fooling anyone pretending to be Jared O'Mara. You can complete a coherent sentence.
There is more to life than that it actually is meaningless as there is no deal and he can’t no deal but apart from promising money to marginal constituencies what do the Tories stand for
Nothing in politics matters right now other than Brexit.
Getting a deal done.
Winning the GE.
Scotland being supported in their push for independence.
This will ensure a Tory hegemony in England for generations.
Yes, Labour has not won a majority south of Hadrian's Wall since Tony Blair was prime minister, so perhaps not very many generations. And that is without the electorate punishing the Conservatives for Brexit when Project Fear turns out to have had a point after all.
What you talking about? I live north of Hadrian’s Wall and there’s still 55 miles of England to the north of me.
It's fascinating how the Wall is ultimately the origin of that street in Newcastle - I forget the name - that runs obliquely just north of the station and heads past the castle.
Corbyn and McDonnell would resign and let a moderate team take over the leadership of the Labour Party if they had any self-awareness of the terrible state the party is in with numbers like this.
They would never have entered the 2007 and 2015 leadership contests in the first place if they had those characteristics.
(In fairness, Macdonnell is many things but not stupid, but Corbyn...oh my goodness, Corbyn...)
Indeed. Their gambit too is that it's more important for their faction to stay in control of Labour than to maximise the chances of winning. Not because they don't want to be in government - they'd love to be. But because they know, as some of their old pals would put it, they only have to be lucky once. Outside Labour their brand of cod revolutionary socialism doesn't have a hope - as long as they run Labour though, they think that eventually people will be so furious with the Tories they'll put them in government. With Brexit the Tories really have handed them what maybe their best chance, which ironically, may lead to their swift downfall if they fail to take it. As supporters really will say "if not now, when?" Perhaps they've already missed their best chance in 2017. Lose another election and Corbyn's gone, probably in favour of a young loyalist who quickly gets frustrated with being tainted by Corbynism and starts trying to reach out to moderates, starting the process of recovery, or if they don't, getting usurped by the Lib Dems as after 10 years of failure younger supporters have just had enough.
Fascinating to see the reactions to the poll on here. It may prove to be completely untypical in the long run as with any snapshot. But to see some people denying both Opinium and YG as having any relevance at all is surprising. And the pretence that it is meaningless because of the Gmiyah defection is bizarre. Arguably the government has had several weeks now of awful press yet the polling remains relatively robust.
Poeple don't like polticial parties that refuse to let them have a general election.
Usually the public dislike being asked for early elections. You may be projecting.
No one cares either way I don't think. What they don't like are governments or oppositions that lack control, are duplicitous, or weak. That can be manifested in a decision or not to call a general election. Ultimately our current morass leads to both parties looking out of control, duplicitous and weak - so it's anyone's guess where we end up.
Fascinating to see the reactions to the poll on here. It may prove to be completely untypical in the long run as with any snapshot. But to see some people denying both Opinium and YG as having any relevance at all is surprising. And the pretence that it is meaningless because of the Gmiyah defection is bizarre. Arguably the government has had several weeks now of awful press yet the polling remains relatively robust.
We have a conservative government held hostage by a House of Commons in fear of the electorate and in thrall to an out of control speaker and where the law may come down on the the Prime Minister like a tonne of bricks while Corbyn vacillates. Meanwhile Barnier and Juncker bide their time in the wings. And the polls are balm to the Tories.
Fascinating to see the reactions to the poll on here. It may prove to be completely untypical in the long run as with any snapshot. But to see some people denying both Opinium and YG as having any relevance at all is surprising. And the pretence that it is meaningless because of the Gmiyah defection is bizarre. Arguably the government has had several weeks now of awful press yet the polling remains relatively robust.
Indeed, Boris would give Labour its biggest defeat since the Thatcher years if tonight's Opinium is correct but obviously a long way to go yet
Not that weird - there's lots of far left comspiracist types in and around the Brexit Party because like them, it loves a bit of crankery.
Not as weird as it looks. The Living Marxism gang are connected to the founding of the Brexit Party. Look up Clare Fox. They've evolved a bizarre stew of marxist "progress" determinism and ultra-free market fundamentalism.
The Tories have now had good polls from several pollsters - as high as 38% from Kantar which seemed freakishly high given their 42% rating a week earlier. Tonight's Opinium is in the same ballpark at 37%, and Yougov has had them as high as 35% a week ago before falling back to 32% earlier this week. There comes a point when it makes little sense to talk in terms of outliers - the polls are what they are - with some generating narrower leads than others.
Comments
Tories 386
Labour 181
LDs 26
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=25&LIB=16&Brexit=13&Green=2&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Notably, the first poll I’ve seen putting the pro-No Deal parties ahead of those that oppose it.
Getting a deal done.
Winning the GE.
Scotland being supported in their push for independence.
This will ensure a Tory hegemony in England for generations.
https://flavible.com/politics/map/user_predictions.php?sid=14
And we will see how those numbers hold up when Boris fails to see us out by November.
What a shame !
(In fairness, Macdonnell is many things but not stupid, but Corbyn...oh my goodness, Corbyn...)
So with Opinium, YouGov it's mostly the house effect.
Labour has won a majority in England only once since 1966.
1966!!!
Once in 53 years.
But Buzzkill is I think just trolling. Best to ignore.
Edit - they also won 255 seats in England in October 1974, which was only about three short of a majority and made them the largest party.
First Lee, now Gyimah. This is becoming a trend.
If not, the LibDems are welcome to you, you shallow.....
https://twitter.com/SPYKlDS2/status/1172949586924777473
Pretty poor tbh and i'm surprised at the LD's taking him on.
A crying shame he can't be recalled. Failure to appear / vote should be added to the recall of MPs act.
And yet arguably he's still not as bad as Ian Lavery.
Poeple don't like polticial parties that refuse to let them have a general election.
An absolutely weird story.
Labour are in a death spiral.
Once in a lifetime elections to try and sort out a once on a century constituational crisis no.
Meanwhile Barnier and Juncker bide their time in the wings.
And the polls are balm to the Tories.
He could do their GE campaign song.
Bermuda Triangle.
The BBC needs to ban them, or stop broadcasting this.
It would surely be much much tighter than the 55/45 of 2014.