(2) Boris risks failing on both fronts. He thinks he’s a liberal one nation Brexiteer but has so far only convinced those who used to work with him at the Spectator. He risks alienating his one-nation wing with extreme tactics, rhetoric on gender & race, and appearing to wilfully risk or pursue No Deal in pursuit of Brexit Party votes with a purist purge thereafter. But he also risks alienating the Spartans and Brexit party support with moves to liberalise immigration, insulting Farage and not being serious about No Deal.
He’ll end up being distrusted by both, as well as hated by the opposition parties.
I therefore think he could fall far harder and quicker than we might currently think, and by his own party’s hand.
He won't, he is following the Cummings master plan and remember it was Cummings who led the official winning Leave campaign not Farage.
A points system replacing free movement is also on no definition liberalism immigration
The problem of the last few years is that the best from Oxford need to win votes from people with fewer than 2 A-levels...
Well indeed - but this is the new paradigm.
And is it a problem? Not sure. It's certainly a surprise.
Who would have thought that when Class War was visited upon the nation the spiritual leaders of the lumpen proletariat would be Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg, and almost the entire community of Mayfair?
This isn't much of a concession. With the No Deal bill in law, Boris no longer gains from the prorogation.
Indeed, Boris could now use all the extra sittings of MPs to propose a general election day in day out
Your confident predictions of his successful Parliamentary manoeuvres have thus far proved... unsuccessful. He now commands, more or less, a sizeable minority in Parliament. On the other hand, he hasn’t game planned this outcome, so it might not be quite such a disaster for him ?
A wonderful courageous woman. More backbone and fight than the spineless yes people sitting in the criminal cabinet at no 10.
Or on the other hand a metropolitan elitist determined to do whatever possible to overturn the biggest vote in postwar history simply as she dislikes the result
You mean she’s trying to overturn the 1992 General Election? Huge if true
Nice one. These idiots need to understand that the first responsibility of law makers is to uphold the law. If a solicitor were found to be inciting law breaking in others they would most likely be struck off
if we stuck to that approach homosexuality would still be illegal.
No, that is not analogous at all. Utterly ridiculous and insulting to people who had to suffer unjustly. We are talking about MPs *inciting* a Prime Minister to break the law for political purposes, not two consenting adults engaging in what comes naturally to them.
Youre simply descending into the Brexit maelstrom. All you mean is the law should be upheld when its to your taste and should be challenged when it isnt.
If you stepped back youd realise the whole concept of bogging politics down in the courts is insane. What comes around goes around. The optics of an unelected millionaire using her cheque book to get her way just looks wrong. Its simply the inverse of Lord Ashcroft waving his wad to back his political pet projects. Also wrong.
You completely misunderstand me if you think that is the case, I would happily criticise anyone on the more sane side of the debate if they advocated breaking the law in a similar way, particularly on a matter as trivial as Brexit. Sadly you have a very cynical view of the world which is why you have supported Brexit; you are perhaps susceptible to the belief that "the establishment" is bad and must be wrong on everything. Politicians are not above the law, and if they break it, including incitement of others they should feel the full force.
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
Jezza is now on his third PM within 3 years. Through a process of masterly inaction and decisive indecision the bloke with 2 A levels has seen off the best Oxford can throw at him.
So much for intellect.
He hasn't really beaten them though.
He stood and watched as they punched themselves senseless
Thats their problem for taking their Oxford Uni rivalries in to government with them. Jezza had his past disputes too, but just ignored them.
One of the things we have undoubtedly learned over the last three years is that places like Eton and Oxbridge are not all the are cracked up to be.
We have learnt precisely the opposite I'd have thought. The more average or below average you think DC and BJ essentially are, the greater the achievement of those places in hitting them with the magic PM wand.
(2) Boris risks failing on both fronts. He thinks he’s a liberal one nation Brexiteer but has so far only convinced those who used to work with him at the Spectator. He risks alienating his one-nation wing with extreme tactics, rhetoric on gender & race, and appearing to wilfully risk or pursue No Deal in pursuit of Brexit Party votes with a purist purge thereafter. But he also risks alienating the Spartans and Brexit party support with moves to liberalise immigration, insulting Farage and not being serious about No Deal.
He’ll end up being distrusted by both, as well as hated by the opposition parties.
I therefore think he could fall far harder and quicker than we might currently think, and by his own party’s hand.
He won't, he is following the Cummings master plan and remember it was Cummings who led the official winning Leave campaign not Farage.
A points system replacing free movement is also on no definition liberalism immigration
This isn't much of a concession. With the No Deal bill in law, Boris no longer gains from the prorogation.
If the Supreme Court does rule its unlawful he’ll come under enormous pressure to resign.
I don’t expect him to do so.
He'll doubledown I have no doubt. Waffle waffle, unelected judges, oh my look over there, harrumph, will of the people, iacta alea est, me me me, Corbyn bad.
A wonderful courageous woman. More backbone and fight than the spineless yes people sitting in the criminal cabinet at no 10.
Or on the other hand a metropolitan elitist determined to do whatever possible to overturn the biggest vote in postwar history simply as she dislikes the result
She’s trying to overturn the 1992 general election result ?
After all more people voted in the 1992 general election than in the 2016 referendum.
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
The only way it will be RIP Tories is if they extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
A wonderful courageous woman. More backbone and fight than the spineless yes people sitting in the criminal cabinet at no 10.
Or on the other hand a metropolitan elitist determined to do whatever possible to overturn the biggest vote in postwar history simply as she dislikes the result
She’s trying to overturn the 1992 general election result ?
After all more people voted in the 1992 general election than in the 2016 referendum.
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
Oh my gosh, you think that is so clever. He was referring to the number of people voting in total, which I am sure you knew, on an election that was not binary. Lies, damn lies, HYUFD and Boris.
She’s a citizen of a democracy that supposedly operates under the rule of law.
and in this instance that law is only accessible from the size of her bank balance.
Any civil action requires relatively deep pockets to bear the risk of costs being awarded against you, and that makes a case for improved access to legal aid.
But you are, in any event, wrong. She's able to proceed because the courts have decided she has locus standi. Any of us could bring the case if we were prepared to gamble our house on it or had the energy to crowdfund. I have no problem with people bringing a case they have standing to bring with arguments that (whether or not they are right) are at least relevant and reasonably arguable.
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
So people keep saying , but results tend to point otherwise. He may have been lucky once but at present it looks like he is just another donkey.
Of course it is. It is her business and every other citizen (subject if you prefer).
we have elected preserentatives to sort things out. Mixing millionaires pet projects and courts never ends well.
The courts have already recognised that it is her business in accepting her as a party to the (English) case, so whether you approve of her or not is neither here nor there.
as you wish but I suspect it wont just be myself saying one rule for the rich and another for the poor.
Given the LDs broke a pledge not to introduce Uni fees can we have a judicial review and sue the party ?
Ultimately thats where this nonsense is leading - US politics.
I don’t think the litigation has much to do with that.
In any event, Bercow is unlikely to recall Parliament before the SC decision, as it would look really silly if it went the other way again. Everyone on both sides probably wants a couple of days to work out what to do next anyway, in the wake of a surprise judgment.
A wonderful courageous woman. More backbone and fight than the spineless yes people sitting in the criminal cabinet at no 10.
Or on the other hand a metropolitan elitist determined to do whatever possible to overturn the biggest vote in postwar history simply as she dislikes the result
She’s trying to overturn the 1992 general election result ?
After all more people voted in the 1992 general election than in the 2016 referendum.
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
Great pre-roll you tube ad I just got - apparently Donald Trump would like me to take an official socialism approval poll.
Question - which type of country would you prefer the United States be? A thriving capitalist country, or a radical socialist country.
At the moment it is more the former but not as much as Singapore or Switzerland for example, however under FDR and LBJ for example it was more the latter even if it has never been Cuba or Sweden
Nice one. These idiots need to understand that the first responsibility of law makers is to uphold the law. If a solicitor were found to be inciting law breaking in others they would most likely be struck off
if we stuck to that approach homosexuality would still be illegal.
No, that is not analogous at all. Utterly ridiculous and insulting to people who had to suffer unjustly. We are talking about MPs *inciting* a Prime Minister to break the law for political purposes, not two consenting adults engaging in what comes naturally to them.
Youre simply descending into the Brexit maelstrom. All you mean is the law should be upheld when its to your taste and should be challenged when it isnt.
If you stepped back youd realise the whole concept of bogging politics down in the courts is insane. What comes around goes around. The optics of an unelected millionaire using her cheque book to get her way just looks wrong. Its simply the inverse of Lord Ashcroft waving his wad to back his political pet projects. Also wrong.
You completely misunderstand me if you think that is the case, I would happily criticise anyone on the more sane side of the debate if they advocated breaking the law in a similar way, particularly on a matter as trivial as Brexit. Sadly you have a very cynical view of the world which is why you have supported Brexit; you are perhaps susceptible to the belief that "the establishment" is bad and must be wrong on everything. Politicians are not above the law, and if they break it, including incitement of others they should feel the full force.
The fact is any new political set up is still likely to come from the same tired sources. What will be different is the parameters on which they approach governance will change if they want to get in to power. Were already seeing the UK political tectonics shifting, it remains to be seen if they move the full way or stop. Politicans however can no longer rely on the Third way model it has had its day. Mandelsons poison that "they have nowhere else to go" was just plain wrong - voters went and not to places the politicans liked. Now the parties have to get them back.
They obviously decided that it might get buried by the Scottish Court decision so are quickly rushing it out .
They’d better not try and change the documents . The Welsh Leader already has a copy and although covered by the OSA he can confirm if something fishy has happened .
A wonderful courageous woman. More backbone and fight than the spineless yes people sitting in the criminal cabinet at no 10.
Or on the other hand a metropolitan elitist determined to do whatever possible to overturn the biggest vote in postwar history simply as she dislikes the result
She’s trying to overturn the 1992 general election result ?
After all more people voted in the 1992 general election than in the 2016 referendum.
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
Oh my gosh, you think that is so clever. He was referring to the number of people voting in total, which I am sure you knew, on an election that was not binary. Lies, damn lies, HYUFD and Boris.
And what kind of democratic vote would it have been if only two parties were allowed to stand ?
She’s a citizen of a democracy that supposedly operates under the rule of law.
and in this instance that law is only accessible from the size of her bank balance.
Any civil action requires relatively deep pockets to bear the risk of costs being awarded against you, and that makes a case for improved access to legal aid.
But you are, in any event, wrong. She's able to proceed because the courts have decided she has locus standi. Any of us could bring the case if we were prepared to gamble our house on it or had the energy to crowdfund. I have no problem with people bringing a case they have standing to bring with arguments that (whether or not they are right) are at least relevant and reasonably arguable.
well yes thats the theory. But the downside for her is loose change for a bloke in Dudley as you say its his house.
Re people's pmqs. Its shit, but that's not the point. It's just another Boris and his peeps vs those stuffy out of touch MPs thing. Everything is Boris and his peeps v parliament
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
The only way it will be RIP Tories is if they extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
I think you will be disappointed when the silver spoons are found out. They are clearly abusing the privilege of office. If I think that then given the conversations I have had with people in the last week the Tories are going to hit a wall, very hard. It always amazes me the way you go on about delivering Brexit. You are fighting the last war...
Nice one. These idiots need to understand that the first responsibility of law makers is to uphold the law. If a solicitor were found to be inciting law breaking in others they would most likely be struck off
if we stuck to that approach homosexuality would still be illegal.
No, that is not analogous at all. Utterly ridiculous and insulting to people who had to suffer unjustly. We are talking about MPs *inciting* a Prime Minister to break the law for political purposes, not two consenting adults engaging in what comes naturally to them.
Youre simply descending into the Brexit maelstrom. All you mean is the law should be upheld when its to your taste and should be challenged when it isnt.
If you stepped back youd realise the whole concept of bogging politics down in the courts is insane. What comes around goes around. The optics of an unelected millionaire using her cheque book to get her way just looks wrong. Its simply the inverse of Lord Ashcroft waving his wad to back his political pet projects. Also wrong.
You completely misunderstand me if you think that is the case, I would happily criticise anyone on the more sane side of the debate if they advocated breaking the law in a similar way, particularly on a matter as trivial as Brexit. Sadly you have a very cynical view of the world which is why you have supported Brexit; you are perhaps susceptible to the belief that "the establishment" is bad and must be wrong on everything. Politicians are not above the law, and if they break it, including incitement of others they should feel the full force.
The fact is any new political set up is still likely to come from the same tired sources. What will be different is the parameters on which they approach governance will change if they want to get in to power. Were already seeing the UK political tectonics shifting, it remains to be seen if they move the full way or stop. Politicans however can no longer rely on the Third way model it has had its day. Mandelsons poison that "they have nowhere else to go" was just plain wrong - voters went and not to places the politicans liked. Now the parties have to get them back.
I can't disagree with some of that analysis. I am perhaps more optimistic about the future though than I guess you are. The grown ups will take control of the sweetshop again. Hopefully soon.
(2) Boris risks failing on both fronts. He thinks he’s a liberal one nation Brexiteer but has so far only convinced those who used to work with him at the Spectator. He risks alienating his one-nation wing with extreme tactics, rhetoric on gender & race, and appearing to wilfully risk or pursue No Deal in pursuit of Brexit Party votes with a purist purge thereafter. But he also risks alienating the Spartans and Brexit party support with moves to liberalise immigration, insulting Farage and not being serious about No Deal.
He’ll end up being distrusted by both, as well as hated by the opposition parties.
I therefore think he could fall far harder and quicker than we might currently think, and by his own party’s hand.
To be replaced by whom? With what policy? With what electoral appeal?
She’s a citizen of a democracy that supposedly operates under the rule of law.
and in this instance that law is only accessible from the size of her bank balance.
Any civil action requires relatively deep pockets to bear the risk of costs being awarded against you, and that makes a case for improved access to legal aid.
But you are, in any event, wrong. She's able to proceed because the courts have decided she has locus standi. Any of us could bring the case if we were prepared to gamble our house on it or had the energy to crowdfund. I have no problem with people bringing a case they have standing to bring with arguments that (whether or not they are right) are at least relevant and reasonably arguable.
well yes thats the theory. But the downside for her is loose change for a bloke in Dudley as you say its his house.
That’s hardly a reason to deny access to the courts, though.
Nice one. These idiots need to understand that the first responsibility of law makers is to uphold the law. If a solicitor were found to be inciting law breaking in others they would most likely be struck off
if we stuck to that approach homosexuality would still be illegal.
No, that is not analogous at all. Utterly ridiculous and insulting to people who had to suffer unjustly. We are talking about MPs *inciting* a Prime Minister to break the law for political purposes, not two consenting adults engaging in what comes naturally to them.
Youre simply descending into the Brexit maelstrom. All you mean is the law should be upheld when its to your taste and should be challenged when it isnt.
If you stepped back youd realise the whole concept of bogging politics down in the courts is insane. What comes around goes around. The optics of an unelected millionaire using her cheque book to get her way just looks wrong. Its simply the inverse of Lord Ashcroft waving his wad to back his political pet projects. Also wrong.
You completely misunderstand me if you think tll force.
The fact is any new political set up is still likely t have to get them back.
I can't disagree with some of that analysis. I am perhaps more optimistic about the future though than I guess you are. The grown ups will take control of the sweetshop again. Hopefully soon.
Actually Im probably more optimistic than you. Humpty has fallen and cant be put back together again. A new political consensus will emerge, but it will be over time and not before the ancien regime has yelled its death cry.
The grown ups may re emerge but then we will have to shoot all the lawyers to let them get access to parliament first.
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
More people voted for Remain than have ever voted for the Tories in any General Election. Alienating all of them, as well as half the people who voted Leave doesn't seem like an electoral strategy with much of a future.
(2) Boris risks failing on both fronts. He thinks he’s a liberal one nation Brexiteer but has so far only convinced those who used to work with him at the Spectator. He risks alienating his one-nation wing with extreme tactics, rhetoric on gender & race, and appearing to wilfully risk or pursue No Deal in pursuit of Brexit Party votes with a purist purge thereafter. But he also risks alienating the Spartans and Brexit party support with moves to liberalise immigration, insulting Farage and not being serious about No Deal.
He’ll end up being distrusted by both, as well as hated by the opposition parties.
I therefore think he could fall far harder and quicker than we might currently think, and by his own party’s hand.
To be replaced by whom? With what policy? With what electoral appeal?
Gove, or Hunt on a leave compromise that ends up being put to a referendum. People go for a soft leave, economy recovers and Conservatives stabilise.
No election until GE2022. If Corbyn or hard Left-winger still there a chance of a win as Conservatives look safe once again.
I have just been looking at the motion on Brexit to be debated at the Lib Dem conference next week. It is a long one but the key paragraphs are 'Conference reaffirms the Liberal Democrat commitment to: a. Fighting in Parliament for an "Exit to Brexit" referendum and for the public to choose between "the deal" or staying in the EU; with Liberal Democrats campaigning for the UK a remain a full and active member of the EU.' and b. Revoke Article 50 if the House of Commons has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement one week ahead of the date on which the UK is due to leave the EU.' It then goes on to say 'Conference calls for: 1. Liberal Democrats to campaign to stop Brexit in a General Election, with the election of a Liberal Democrat majority government to be recognised as an unequivocal mandate to revoke Article 50 and for the UK to stay in the EU.'
(2) Boris risks failing on both fronts. He thinks he’s a liberal one nation Brexiteer but has so far only convinced those who used to work with him at the Spectator. He risks alienating his one-nation wing with extreme tactics, rhetoric on gender & race, and appearing to wilfully risk or pursue No Deal in pursuit of Brexit Party votes with a purist purge thereafter. But he also risks alienating the Spartans and Brexit party support with moves to liberalise immigration, insulting Farage and not being serious about No Deal.
He’ll end up being distrusted by both, as well as hated by the opposition parties.
I therefore think he could fall far harder and quicker than we might currently think, and by his own party’s hand.
To be replaced by whom? With what policy? With what electoral appeal?
Gove, or Hunt on a leave compromise that ends up being put to a referendum. People go for a soft leave, economy recovers and Conservatives stabilise.
No election until GE2022. If Corbyn or hard Left-winger still there a chance of a win as Conservatives look safe once again.
All of that sounds fine to me (I don't really care what Brexit or lack thereof we get, avoiding Corbyn is my priority), but for us to escape an election until 2022, even if all the expelled MPs returned under a new leader, looks deeply unlikely. How can we survive doing almost nothing for two years, while being hated by both flanks of the Brexit divide? I get the "relief bonus" of finally getting a deal through, but the opposition parties are likely to block any deal a Tory PM obtains for precisely that reason...
On topic... I would buy Any Party Majority, and sell Conservatives.
Done at the right amounts, that means that you have a loss if the Conservatives are between 302 and about 328, but you get big profits under quite a lot of other scenarios.
Now, sure, that's the most likely scenario. But it's far from a given. It seems this pays off big in edge scenarios.
(2) Boris risks failing on both fronts. He thinks he’s a liberal one nation Brexiteer but has so far only convinced those who used to work with him at the Spectator. He risks alienating his one-nation wing with extreme tactics, rhetoric on gender & race, and appearing to wilfully risk or pursue No Deal in pursuit of Brexit Party votes with a purist purge thereafter. But he also risks alienating the Spartans and Brexit party support with moves to liberalise immigration, insulting Farage and not being serious about No Deal.
He’ll end up being distrusted by both, as well as hated by the opposition parties.
I therefore think he could fall far harder and quicker than we might currently think, and by his own party’s hand.
To be replaced by whom? With what policy? With what electoral appeal?
Gove, or Hunt on a leave compromise that ends up being put to a referendum. People go for a soft leave, economy recovers and Conservatives stabilise.
No election until GE2022. If Corbyn or hard Left-winger still there a chance of a win as Conservatives look safe once again.
All of that sounds fine to me (I don't really care what Brexit or lack thereof we get, avoiding Corbyn is my priority), but for us to escape an election until 2022, even if all the expelled MPs returned under a new leader, looks deeply unlikely. How can we survive doing almost nothing for two years, while being hated by both flanks of the Brexit divide? I get the "relief bonus" of finally getting a deal through, but the opposition parties are likely to block any deal a Tory PM obtains for precisely that reason...
We could get a leader who has good people skills and isn’t a c**t?
Under a new leader the Tories get the previous expellees back into the fold (Boris’s mistake) they have 309 MPs at least. To get to the 323 MPs needed for a bare majority (a difference of 14 MPs) they have a number of options from independents, TIG, LDs and DUP that could be bartered with for the next two years, mainly with funding and a couple of extra bills in a queens speech. Case by case voting is fine under the FPTA. And Corbyn is a undefused bomb as long as he’s still there - there’s not a majority to put him in office in this Parliament, except to stop No Deal.
Brexit effectively gets defused in this scenario by the second referendum. I find it hard to see how Parliament defies that verdict regardless of what it is.
Water vapour detected in the atmosphere of a 'super earth' 110 light years away that is in the habitable zone. Let's all emigrate!
Careful, it could be Cummings home planet!
Incidentally, I see on BoZos Facebook page, his favourite film is Apocalypse Now. How apposite, a film about a blood soaked journey to kill a rogue officer on his own side.
I have just been looking at the motion on Brexit to be debated at the Lib Dem conference next week.
That's A motion. But the deadline for amendments isn't till 1 pm tomorrow, and we won't know which of them will be debated till early Sunday. We won't know precisely what the amended composite will be till halfway through the debate.
Seeing the ineffable Joanne back on the Beeb pretending that the Court ruling requires the Commons to be instantly reconvened - a ruling that the Court explicitly did not make.
Difficult to know who speaks for the majority of Labour MPs and members, Corbyn or Watson? Either way, it's a mess and the lack of anything approaching a coherent policy on Brexit is clearly reflected in the polls. Labour really should be doing better.
Surely the nob was Osborne who wanted us to get deeper in to bed economically with China. If Germany lets the spat deepen it will take a hit on its exports.Timing is not great for them.
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
The only way it will be RIP Tories is if they extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
I think you will be disappointed when the silver spoons are found out. They are clearly abusing the privilege of office. If I think that then given the conversations I have had with people in the last week the Tories are going to hit a wall, very hard. It always amazes me the way you go on about delivering Brexit. You are fighting the last war...
Brexit has not been delivered yet this IS the war until it is
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
More people voted for Remain than have ever voted for the Tories in any General Election. Alienating all of them, as well as half the people who voted Leave doesn't seem like an electoral strategy with much of a future.
Wrong on both counts.
Yougov today has 55% of Leavers voting Tory and 13% of Remainers voting Tory.
Only 8% of Leavers and just 36% of Remainers are voting Labour though
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
More people voted for Remain than have ever voted for the Tories in any General Election. Alienating all of them, as well as half the people who voted Leave doesn't seem like an electoral strategy with much of a future.
Wrong on both counts.
Yougov today has 55% of Leavers voting Tory and 13% of Remainers voting Tory.
Only 8% of Leavers and just 36% of Remainers are voting Labour though
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
The only way it will be RIP Tories is if they extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
I think you will be disappointed when the silver spoons are found out. They are clearly abusing the privilege of office. If I think that then given the conversations I have had with people in the last week the Tories are going to hit a wall, very hard. It always amazes me the way you go on about delivering Brexit. You are fighting the last war...
Brexit has not been delivered yet this IS the war until it is
Well if it is war you are not very good at it! All that has happened so far is the Tories have imploded in parliament. The election Boris didn't want but tried to get on two occasions has been blocked due to the untrustworthiness of BJ. A court has ruled that Prorogation was unlawful.
Johnson seems to think his weapon of war is not so much a weapon of mass destruction but a Boomerang and it keeps on smacking him in the face when it comes back!
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
More people voted for Remain than have ever voted for the Tories in any General Election. Alienating all of them, as well as half the people who voted Leave doesn't seem like an electoral strategy with much of a future.
Wrong on both counts.
Yougov today has 55% of Leavers voting Tory and 13% of Remainers voting Tory.
Only 8% of Leavers and just 36% of Remainers are voting Labour though
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East regional assembly, No to AV (backroom via Matthew Elliot) and of course Vote Leave. There are signs that is still there with some of his latest posters and slogans on Lab v. Tory on Brexit. He can distil complex arguments into simple messages that resonate with ordinary people, because he both understand those arguments and he listens to them - thus bridging the two. He also imposes an iron message discipline. However, he’s also a borderline sociopath, very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
The only way it will be RIP Tories is if they extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
I think you will be disappointed when the silver spoons are found out. They are clearly abusing the privilege of office. If I think that then given the conversations I have had with people in the last week the Tories are going to hit a wall, very hard. It always amazes me the way you go on about delivering Brexit. You are fighting the last war...
Brexit has not been delivered yet this IS the war until it is
(1) Cummings is extremely intelligent and a very, very good campaign director. His successes include Business for Sterling, North-East , very much on the spectrum, possibly suffers from depression and doesn’t like himself that much. He is an awful choice as Chief of Staff and should have been kept in a back room and deployed for the election campaign only.
Cummings is also trying to push a binary choice in a multi-party system. All he will do is create tactical voting against the Tories IMO. The whole Trump attack style does not work so well in a multi-party system, especially ,when the No Deal Brexit they are propagating is not supported by 50% of the population.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
The only way it will be RIP Tories is if they extend again and refuse to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
I think you will be disappointed when the silver spoons are found out. They are clearly abusing the privilege of office. If I think that then given the conversations I have had with people in the last week the Tories are going to hit a wall, very hard. It always amazes me the way you go on about delivering Brexit. You are fighting the last war...
Brexit has not been delivered yet this IS the war until it is
Well if it is war you are not very good at it! All that has happened so far is the Tories have imploded in parliament. The election Boris didn't want but tried to get on two occasions has been blocked due to the untrustworthiness of BJ. A court has ruled that Prorogation was unlawful.
Johnson seems to think his weapon of war is not so much a weapon of mass destruction but a Boomerang and it keeps on smacking him in the face when it comes back!
Unlike May Boris is going all out war to deliver Brexit, correctly, Deal or No Deal but if the current hung parliament refuses to deliver it he will also correctly take the Tories into opposition rather than extend and continue the war for Brexit from the opposition benches if a diehard Remainer Government is formed or in a general election if he loses a VONC and no alternative PM is agreed
On thread... I think TSE is right with those betting positions. I guess you don't sell ukip in case farage ends back there again...unlikely as that may be for now
17 million voted Leave in 2016, only 14 million voted for the Tories in 1992
More people voted for Remain than have ever voted for the Tories in any General Election. Alienating all of them, as well as half the people who voted Leave doesn't seem like an electoral strategy with much of a future.
Wrong on both counts.
Yougov today has 55% of Leavers voting Tory and 13% of Remainers voting Tory.
Only 8% of Leavers and just 36% of Remainers are voting Labour though
Name me one party leader in the last thirty years who has done anything with their life outside of politics that was any use to anyone but themselves?
Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher all ran foundations. All three projects were intended to push for much the same things they'd stood for as PM.
You may not like what they stood for - or you might believe ex-PMs have no right to take salaries. But it's simply fatuous to hint they "cared for nothing but themselves"
What, as a matter of interest, have you ever done that's any use tom anyone but you?
Name me one party leader in the last thirty years who has done anything with their life outside of politics that was any use to anyone but themselves?
Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher all ran foundations. All three projects were intended to push for much the same things they'd stood for as PM.
You may not like what they stood for - or you might believe ex-PMs have no right to take salaries. But it's simply fatuous to hint they "cared for nothing but themselves"
What, as a matter of interest, have you ever done that's any use tom anyone but you?
Rather a lot actually but, apart from my job, I never made any money out of it.
Comments
A points system replacing free movement is also on no definition liberalism immigration
I don’t expect him to do so.
And is it a problem? Not sure. It's certainly a surprise.
Who would have thought that when Class War was visited upon the nation the spiritual leaders of the lumpen proletariat would be Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg, and almost the entire community of Mayfair?
Not me.
He now commands, more or less, a sizeable minority in Parliament. On the other hand, he hasn’t game planned this outcome, so it might not be quite such a disaster for him ?
Question - which type of country would you prefer the United States be? A thriving capitalist country, or a radical socialist country.
Johnson/Cummings are guilty of using £100 Million of public money to try and persuade the public into accepting No Deal in an election they tried to claim they did not want. I think the communications between the various people in No.10, CCHQ and advisors in Government maybe on a sticky wicket in respect of spending £100 Million of public money, which in a planned election would not be allowed. The Tories under Johnson are clearly flouting the rules. RIP Tories
Well it’s a view.
But you are, in any event, wrong. She's able to proceed because the courts have decided she has locus standi. Any of us could bring the case if we were prepared to gamble our house on it or had the energy to crowdfund. I have no problem with people bringing a case they have standing to bring with arguments that (whether or not they are right) are at least relevant and reasonably arguable.
In any event, Bercow is unlikely to recall Parliament before the SC decision, as it would look really silly if it went the other way again. Everyone on both sides probably wants a couple of days to work out what to do next anyway, in the wake of a surprise judgment.
They’d better not try and change the documents . The Welsh Leader already has a copy and although covered by the OSA he can confirm if something fishy has happened .
In fact she's more of a woman than she is black.
She's like Kamala Harris in this regard.
The grown ups may re emerge but then we will have to shoot all the lawyers to let them get access to parliament first.
No election until GE2022. If Corbyn or hard Left-winger still there a chance of a win as Conservatives look safe once again.
"18 years have passed since airplanes took aim and brought down the World Trade Center... where more than 2000 people died".
https://twitter.com/lisa27435743/status/1171765390814396416
The interest comes from having to prise it out of the government.
Let's all emigrate!
I fear though … it's wishful thinking. The whole Brexit saga seems to be a demonstration of Murphy's Law at every stage.
It does, however, require superb leadership.
Leadership means selling difficult choices to people and taking them with you.
Done at the right amounts, that means that you have a loss if the Conservatives are between 302 and about 328, but you get big profits under quite a lot of other scenarios.
Now, sure, that's the most likely scenario. But it's far from a given. It seems this pays off big in edge scenarios.
Under a new leader the Tories get the previous expellees back into the fold (Boris’s mistake) they have 309 MPs at least. To get to the 323 MPs needed for a bare majority (a difference of 14 MPs) they have a number of options from independents, TIG, LDs and DUP that could be bartered with for the next two years, mainly with funding and a couple of extra bills in a queens speech. Case by case voting is fine under the FPTA. And Corbyn is a undefused bomb as long as he’s still there - there’s not a majority to put him in office in this Parliament, except to stop No Deal.
Brexit effectively gets defused in this scenario by the second referendum. I find it hard to see how Parliament defies that verdict regardless of what it is.
Incidentally, I see on BoZos Facebook page, his favourite film is Apocalypse Now. How apposite, a film about a blood soaked journey to kill a rogue officer on his own side.
https://reaction.life/jeremy-vine-my-boris-story/
Same as Jolyon this morning.
Hah.
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article200141904/Joshua-Wong-Eklat-China-droht-Deutschland-jetzt-ganz-offen.html
Nob. Hunt spoke out on this.
That coming election is not looking great.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cuts-in-income-tax-ruled-out-in-budget-2020-by-paschal-donohoe-1.4014833
And now it's too late. Oh god.
Yougov today has 55% of Leavers voting Tory and 13% of Remainers voting Tory.
Only 8% of Leavers and just 36% of Remainers are voting Labour though
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-
Johnson seems to think his weapon of war is not so much a weapon of mass destruction but a Boomerang and it keeps on smacking him in the face when it comes back!
The schtick is going to wear thin pretty quickly.
If he lasts that long.
You may not like what they stood for - or you might believe ex-PMs have no right to take salaries. But it's simply fatuous to hint they "cared for nothing but themselves"
What, as a matter of interest, have you ever done that's any use tom anyone but you?