Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.
The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hoovering
There are also quite a lot of Lab-Con marginals that are not even long shots for the Cons to pick up. Overall, across the whole country, there are 36 seats where Lab is 1st and Con 2nd, and where it would take a 4% swing or less for the Conservatives to win the seat. 30 of these 36 are outside London and the South and in 28 of these Leave won the plurality in the referendum. 15 are in the North, 9 in the West and East Midlands, 3 in the East and 3 in Wales. Only 2 (both Remain) seats are in London.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
From "All Out War" he thinks they're super toxic. But considering Cummings' own reputation now...
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
Yes
And why exactly are the Conservatives letting Cummings commit unforced error after unforced error, strategic disaster after strategic disaster? This is madness of Nick Timothy proportions!
If it all ends in an election, it's mission accomplished as far as Cummings is concerned.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
BBC news reporting of the Scottish prorogation decision pretty disgraceful in terms of what it left out. No mention that it contradicts the earlier High Court ruling. No mention that no order was made to recall parliament pending the appeal. Just Jo Swinson sounding off outside parliament demanding an immediate recall.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
I thought you said Boris will only No Deal or impose his own fantastic new deal on HoC. Since when has he decided to reinstate Mrs May's WA with the backstop called something else?
Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?
I think we could be stuck in this dreadful state for many more months or even years yet...
I'm surprised there's less confidence in November. See out the end of October to make sure Boris actually extends, watch his ratings plunge, no confidence/general election motion, job done.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Deals can always be made. However a comment like that may mean it cannot be made with the present incumbent. Local chairmen will be livid if this would result in strategic campaigning locally in a GE.
The sensible answer would have been “we look forward to a Conservative majority when the cowardly opposition agree to a general election” no harm, no foul.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
Maybe they could have been more diplomatic, but it's difficult to see how a Con/Brexit pact is possible, unless Johnson resigns and lets someone else extend.
Otherwise if we extend at Johnson's request, surely the Brexit Party won't want a pact with him.
Or if we leave without a deal under Johnson, the Brexit Party loses its raison d'etre.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
From "All Out War" he thinks they're super toxic. But considering Cummings' own reputation now...
They're hated by about 75% of the population. The voters Johnson is trying to get onboard are in the 25% or so "no deal" bit of the population that loves them.
This has been an absolubte disaster of a day for the Tories, the court of public opinion* has been fine for them till now...
If 50+ MPs want to agree a deal with Boris he’s home and dry.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I still don’t think he’s got a quarter of those.
Quite. Nowhere near that many agreed a deal via May, and theyd want to agree one via Boris? The man who can barely win a vote, is on the ropes and possibly acting illegally?
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
Yes
And why exactly are the Conservatives letting Cummings commit unforced error after unforced error, strategic disaster after strategic disaster? This is madness of Nick Timothy proportions!
If it all ends in an election, it's mission accomplished as far as Cummings is concerned.
Only if they win that election. Which is possible but hardly guaranteed.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
Hes pretending he can get a deal based off the WA to not spook those who dont want no deal. Its fruitless, he might as well choose it now.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
I've noticed that it's the only way Farage / Brexit Party can get in the news. Random offer/prediction about working with the Tories, different every day. They've got nothing else to bring to the table right now. Awww....
Most likely scenario for me is a deal being brought before parliament that's May's WA with amended Ireland provisions, agrifoods thingy etc and the PD left to the new government after an election
It would need a lot of tactical voting on the remain side and totally clueless voting on the Brexit side, but I think 10 to 1 on Labour is getting close to good value at 10 to 1.
Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.
I now like Labour's policy , a deal then a referendum with the deal v remain. It is a sensible position for a deeply divided split country. It is also better than the Lib Dems revoke or the Brexit Parties leave with no deal. Harold Wilson's position in regard to the 1975 referendum, Labour 2019 are copying.
Exactly. I understood it finally on Newsnight last night. Frankly, Emily and others did not explain it properly before. You are right. It is exactly the same as in 1975 [ and indeed 2016 ] when Wilson came back with an "improved" package [ much like Cameron did ] and Ministers and MPs had a free vote. Basically, it would be Labour's WA vs Remain. I would vote Remain. Yes, MPs can vote against a Labour negotiated WA just like Johnson, Gove, Grayling, Villiers ….did. Alles klar.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Oh I know why Con are ruling it out (personally I think they'd be wiser to keep their options open until an election actually happens, given it could be months or even years away) I just thought it was an interesting juxtapositon to be talking about people not being "fir and proper" in light of today's developments..
I mean its not every day a court says the PM has mislead the Queen and acted illegally...
BBC news reporting of the Scottish prorogation decision pretty disgraceful in terms of what it left out. No mention that it contradicts the earlier High Court ruling. No mention that no order was made to recall parliament pending the appeal. Just Jo Swinson sounding off outside parliament demanding an immediate recall.
As it stands, the decision was unlawful. The senior Scottish court has said it's contrary to Scottish law. The fact the lower English court has said it is not contrary to English law is neither here nor there - to be a lawful decision, it must be lawful in all parts of the UK.
It's quite conceivable that the Supreme Court will overall the Court of Session, but the position as it stands is this prorogation was unlawful, so it seems perfectly fair to report that.
BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.
Most likely scenario for me is a deal being brought before parliament that's May's WA with amended Ireland provisions, agrifoods thingy etc and the PD left to the new government after an election
Brought before not passed I note. That I can believe. Passed? No. Details are irrelevant, passing means labour lose and they cannot have that. Boris loses if he passes and if he doesn't, during time bxp/erg and moderate tories.
BBC news reporting of the Scottish prorogation decision pretty disgraceful in terms of what it left out. No mention that it contradicts the earlier High Court ruling. No mention that no order was made to recall parliament pending the appeal. Just Jo Swinson sounding off outside parliament demanding an immediate recall.
Those dastardly BBC lefties hey? Let's not comment about the fact that we have an incompetent lazy, egotistical PM who has wrecked the Conservative Party damaged parliament and possibly mislead the monarch all for his own purposes. Let's have a moan about the BBC and get our priorities right hey?
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Oh I know why Con are ruling it out (personally I think they'd be wiser to keep their options open until an election actually happens, given it could be months or even years away) I just thought it was an interesting juxtapositon to be talking about people not being "fir and proper" in light of today's developments..
I mean its not every day a court says the PM has mislead the Queen and acted illegally...
Details of Ashcroft's poll from Northern Ireland are now out and Boris leads Corbyn 45% to 41% as preferred PM by voters in the province.
Boris is also Unionists favourite politician ahead of Arlene Foster and Nigel Farage but amongst Northern Ireland voters as a whole Alliance Party leader Naomi Long leads and she also leads with Nationalists even beating Sinn Fein leader Michelle O'Neil and Irish PM Leo Varadkar
Does anyone know why the Government stopped the filibuster on the anti No Deal bill in the Lords last week?
Because they want the extension is my cynical interpretation, and were concerned the Lords might successfully block it! Obviously they need to seem 100% determined to be against the extension whilst engineering the circumstances for it to be delivered. What has caught them out is losing control of the election timetable, that may force them into a Brexit party pact.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targeting
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?
Cummings hates everybody. Including himself!
He should do. Horrible little weasel. Perfect marriage for Boris Johnson.
Mr. Eagles, wasn't it the difficulty that fighting a People Vs Politicians election would be tricky if the Lords had defeated the Commons at the Government's behest?
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Oh I know why Con are ruling it out (personally I think they'd be wiser to keep their options open until an election actually happens, given it could be months or even years away) I just thought it was an interesting juxtapositon to be talking about people not being "fir and proper" in light of today's developments..
I mean its not every day a court says the PM has mislead the Queen and acted illegally...
It's a big old tactical error.
Cons on 30 to 38%, BXP on 7 to 13. It's the same as Cameron calling them fruitcakes and loons. You dont stand down in dozens of seats for a minor party that has no ground game
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
I thought you said Boris will only No Deal or impose his own fantastic new deal on HoC. Since when has he decided to reinstate Mrs May's WA with the backstop called something else?
Boris' preferred Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
Does anyone know why the Government stopped the filibuster on the anti No Deal bill in the Lords last week?
Several options, and it may well have been a combination of all of them. Firstly, despite some hyperventilating on here, it looked fairly likely to fail (based on rate of progress through the numerous amendments). Secondly, a HoL filibuster would very possibly be unpopular with the public (unelected house overruling elected one). Thirdly, individual Lords may well have threatened to resign the whip. Finally, it would make HoL reform more likely under a future non-Tory Government.
Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.
I now like Labour's policy , a deal then a referendum with the deal v remain. It is a sensible position for a deeply divided split country. It is also better than the Lib Dems revoke or the Brexit Parties leave with no deal. Harold Wilson's position in regard to the 1975 referendum, Labour 2019 are copying.
Exactly. I understood it finally on Newsnight last night. Frankly, Emily and others did not explain it properly before. You are right. It is exactly the same as in 1975 [ and indeed 2016 ] when Wilson came back with an "improved" package [ much like Cameron did ] and Ministers and MPs had a free vote. Basically, it would be Labour's WA vs Remain. I would vote Remain. Yes, MPs can vote against a Labour negotiated WA just like Johnson, Gove, Grayling, Villiers ….did. Alles klar.
I could get behind it if they said Labour leavers negotiate with the EU and then it is put to the country. A brexit secretary and foreign secretary so associated with remain, and committed to remain regardless cannot be seen as serious and credible actors to get a deal with the EU.
It is a fairly painless concession from the Labour leadership to the current policy, that frees up both Thornberry/Starmer and Labour leavers to give the policy more support.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
I thought you said Boris will only No Deal or impose his own fantastic new deal on HoC. Since when has he decided to reinstate Mrs May's WA with the backstop called something else?
Boris' preferred Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
As to win a majority Boris needs a united coalition of Deal and No Deal Leavers, the Brexit Party will keep the No Deal diehards, Boris will just keep No Deal as a last resort to ensure Brexit
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
I thought you said Boris will only No Deal or impose his own fantastic new deal on HoC. Since when has he decided to reinstate Mrs May's WA with the backstop called something else?
Boris' preferred Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
So the WA it is with the backstop renamed the Alan Knott- Jack Russell compromise? Has anyone told the ERG yet?
BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.
So is it yet safe to say that Dominic Cummings might not be a tactical genius? I got a lot of flak just ten days ago after I wrote a thread header suggesting that.
So is it yet safe to say that Dominic Cummings might not be a tactical genius? I got a lot of flak just ten days ago after I wrote a thread header suggesting that.
So is it yet safe to say that Dominic Cummings might not be a tactical genius? I got a lot of flak just ten days ago after I wrote a thread header suggesting that.
Ask HYUFD. He still believes, bless him! He probably won't talk to you though because you are a die hard remainer! (sharp intake of breath)
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Oh I know why Con are ruling it out (personally I think they'd be wiser to keep their options open until an election actually happens, given it could be months or even years away) I just thought it was an interesting juxtapositon to be talking about people not being "fir and proper" in light of today's developments..
I mean its not every day a court says the PM has mislead the Queen and acted illegally...
It's a big old tactical error.
Cons on 30 to 38%, BXP on 7 to 13. It's the same as Cameron calling them fruitcakes and loons. You dont stand down in dozens of seats for a minor party that has no ground game
i) Banks is nothing to do with the Brexit Party ii) They polled 5 million in the European elections. The Tories need plenty of those votes this time round.
Why not just come out with some soft pedalled guff about the best way to deliver Brexit is to vote Conservative rather than launching a gratuitous attack on Farage & Banks ?
Do the Tories seriously think any significant remainer vote is coming back to them ?
Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.
The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hoovering
There are also quite a lot of Lab-Con marginals that are not even long shots for the Cons to pick up. Overall, across the whole country, there are 36 seats where Lab is 1st and Con 2nd, and where it would take a 4% swing or less for the Conservatives to win the seat. 30 of these 36 are outside London and the South and in 28 of these Leave won the plurality in the referendum. 15 are in the North, 9 in the West and East Midlands, 3 in the East and 3 in Wales. Only 2 (both Remain) seats are in London.
In those 28 seats the most of the leave voters were Conservative voters. To get a 4% swing overall, you need a huge swing from within the relatively small group of normally Labour voting Leave voters. The normally Labour voting Remain voters will pretty much all stay with Labour or vote LD.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Oh I know why Con are ruling it out (personally I think they'd be wiser to keep their options open until an election actually happens, given it could be months or even years away) I just thought it was an interesting juxtapositon to be talking about people not being "fir and proper" in light of today's developments..
I mean its not every day a court says the PM has mislead the Queen and acted illegally...
It's a big old tactical error.
Cons on 30 to 38%, BXP on 7 to 13. It's the same as Cameron calling them fruitcakes and loons. You dont stand down in dozens of seats for a minor party that has no ground game
i) Banks is nothing to do with the Brexit Party ii) They polled 5 million in the European elections. The Tories need plenty of those votes this time round.
Why not just come out with some soft pedalled guff about the best way to deliver Brexit is to vote Conservative rather than launching a gratuitous attack on Farage & Banks ?
Do the Tories seriously think any significant remainer vote is coming back to them ?
They are banking that they lose far more votes from normal humans than they gain from swivel eyed faragists in a formal deal. As for Banks he has said he would bankroll the Tories if they formally made a pact, that's why he is being mentioned Many Farage fanboys wont go Boris anyway, pact or not
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
As to win a majority Boris needs a united coalition of Deal and No Deal Leavers, the Brexit Party will keep the No Deal diehards, Boris will just keep No Deal as a last resort to ensure Brexit
So tell me this genius. If on the one hand no-deal is something none of us should be bothered about, Project Fear and all that, why should the EU fear it so much? Why is it Boris's important card to frighten them with? It cannot be both. Either it will be shit for EU and UK or not shit for either of us. Methinks I know which one it is!!
So is it yet safe to say that Dominic Cummings might not be a tactical genius? I got a lot of flak just ten days ago after I wrote a thread header suggesting that.
Safe to say it, but God forbid the tories win a majority and he looks right!
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
I thought you said Boris will only No Deal or impose his own fantastic new deal on HoC. Since when has he decided to reinstate Mrs May's WA with the backstop called something else?
Boris' preferred Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop
So the WA it is with the backstop renamed the Alan Knott- Jack Russell compromise? Has anyone told the ERG yet?
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
May I once again recommend 338 Canada.com to follow the Canadian election? It is their equivalent of 538 or Electoral Calculus maybe. A polling site without noticeable biases.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
I suggested the other day the very slim possibility that "the plan" is to exhaust all other possibilities of leaving the EU in record time, leaving the WA* as the last one still standing.
* WA 2.0 if you like, with a "not a backstop" backstop.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
No, once Brexit of any flavour happens, a relieved mainstream body politic and electorate will ensure the hardcore are reduced to howling at the moon. Brexit kills Brexit if no deal is avoided
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
No, once Brexit of any flavour happens, a relieved mainstream body politic and electorate will ensure the hardcore are reduced to howling at the moon. Brexit kills Brexit if no deal is avoided
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
I concur he is a twat. I do think people on both remain and leave are mistaking his recklessness and being a twat as support for no deal, and he thinks those misconceptions are to his advantage. Remember also he is Gove's man (or Gove his?) and Gove has been clearly against no deal this year.
Losing control of the election timetable may actually force them into a Brexit pact, but I strongly doubt they are at all keen on it.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
No, once Brexit of any flavour happens, a relieved mainstream body politic and electorate will ensure the hardcore are reduced to howling at the moon. Brexit kills Brexit if no deal is avoided
No deal leads to eventual rejoin and the end of the UK. Revoke leads to no deal and the end of the UK.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
No, once Brexit of any flavour happens, a relieved mainstream body politic and electorate will ensure the hardcore are reduced to howling at the moon. Brexit kills Brexit if no deal is avoided
No deal leads to eventual rejoin and the end of the UK. Revoke leads to no deal and the end of the UK.
Soft brexit is the only stable outcome.
If only it had been taken. But the time has passed. Now we pick our poison.
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers
Why wouldn't Boris dump the WA? It's not going to get through Parliament, the EU will never drop the backstop, and BXP will destroy his ability to win a majority if he even tries to pass it. Why not just go all in?
This is what Cummings said in 2017
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
Well that first statement hasn't exactly gone to plan has it? And if there is anything less than a full fat headbanging Brexit Farage will be around for a long time making his hatreds grow as much as possible. He hasn't so much drained the poison, but taken the patient on a marathon run to ensure the poison is well and truly in every part of the body. What a hubristic twat he is.
No, once Brexit of any flavour happens, a relieved mainstream body politic and electorate will ensure the hardcore are reduced to howling at the moon. Brexit kills Brexit if no deal is avoided
No deal leads to eventual rejoin and the end of the UK. Revoke leads to no deal and the end of the UK.
Soft brexit is the only stable outcome.
If only it had been taken. But the time has passed. Now we pick our poison.
Ill take another year of ongoing purgatory rather than either poison! And will probably get it.
Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.
I now like Labour's policy , a deal then a referendum with the deal v remain. It is a sensible position for a deeply divided split country. It is also better than the Lib Dems revoke or the Brexit Parties leave with no deal. Harold Wilson's position in regard to the 1975 referendum, Labour 2019 are copying.
Exactly. I understood it finally on Newsnight last night. Frankly, Emily and others did not explain it properly before. You are right. It is exactly the same as in 1975 [ and indeed 2016 ] when Wilson came back with an "improved" package [ much like Cameron did ] and Ministers and MPs had a free vote. Basically, it would be Labour's WA vs Remain. I would vote Remain. Yes, MPs can vote against a Labour negotiated WA just like Johnson, Gove, Grayling, Villiers ….did. Alles klar.
I could get behind it if they said Labour leavers negotiate with the EU and then it is put to the country. A brexit secretary and foreign secretary so associated with remain, and committed to remain regardless cannot be seen as serious and credible actors to get a deal with the EU.
It is a fairly painless concession from the Labour leadership to the current policy, that frees up both Thornberry/Starmer and Labour leavers to give the policy more support.
Our politicians really lack imagination.
The Labour Leaver negotiating will b eone, Jeremy Corbyn. Or, would you like Len McCluskey as well ?
Anyone diving into these markets now has big cojones. We don't know when the election will be, who has forced it, whether we are in or out of the EU, nor indeed who the PM will be. Big upside and downside risks...
Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.
I now like Labour's policy , a deal then a referendum with the deal v remain. It is a sensible position for a deeply divided split country. It is also better than the Lib Dems revoke or the Brexit Parties leave with no deal. Harold Wilson's position in regard to the 1975 referendum, Labour 2019 are copying.
Exactly. I understood it finally on Newsnight last night. Frankly, Emily and others did not explain it properly before. You are right. It is exactly the same as in 1975 [ and indeed 2016 ] when Wilson came back with an "improved" package [ much like Cameron did ] and Ministers and MPs had a free vote. Basically, it would be Labour's WA vs Remain. I would vote Remain. Yes, MPs can vote against a Labour negotiated WA just like Johnson, Gove, Grayling, Villiers ….did. Alles klar.
I could get behind it if they said Labour leavers negotiate with the EU and then it is put to the country. A brexit secretary and foreign secretary so associated with remain, and committed to remain regardless cannot be seen as serious and credible actors to get a deal with the EU.
It is a fairly painless concession from the Labour leadership to the current policy, that frees up both Thornberry/Starmer and Labour leavers to give the policy more support.
Our politicians really lack imagination.
The Labour Leaver negotiating will b eone, Jeremy Corbyn. Or, would you like Len McCluskey as well ?
I would suggest Kinnock, Flint, De Piero and if you are feeling frisky get Field involved as well.
Anyone diving into these markets now has big cojones. We don't know when the election will be, who has forced it, whether we are in or out of the EU, nor indeed who the PM will be. Big upside and downside risks...
Selling UKIP seems OK I think given Farage/Johnson has cornered that part of the market.
So is it yet safe to say that Dominic Cummings might not be a tactical genius? I got a lot of flak just ten days ago after I wrote a thread header suggesting that.
So is it yet safe to say that Dominic Cummings might not be a tactical genius? I got a lot of flak just ten days ago after I wrote a thread header suggesting that.
I think the number of people demanding his head as a sacrifice will continue to grow over the cumming days.
Whether that would be enough to materially change anything remains to be seen
Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?
I think we could be stuck in this dreadful state for many more months or even years yet...
I'm surprised there's less confidence in November. See out the end of October to make sure Boris actually extends, watch his ratings plunge, no confidence/general election motion, job done.
What am I missing?
25 working days notice needed after VONC?
On a related matter, does anyone know of a comprehensive list of candidates declared so far in all constituencies?
Anyone diving into these markets now has big cojones. We don't know when the election will be, who has forced it, whether we are in or out of the EU, nor indeed who the PM will be. Big upside and downside risks...
Selling UKIP seems OK I think given Farage/Johnson has cornered that part of the market.
Yes OK, that makes sense. Not sure any of the others do right now though.
Well done him! He is spot on, whichever main party that returns to the centre and tries to bring the country together will win a landslide and be in power for a long time. Time for another hundred or so to stand up in the Tory party and 2019 can be rescued.
Unfortunately both parties have ceded power to opinion pollsters who propose solutions the people think they want, but the people answering them have not had time or resource to understand the related complexities involved in delivering them. This just leads to a cycle of continual disappointment where politicians over promise and under deliver.
Well done him! He is spot on, whichever main party that returns to the centre and tries to bring the country together will win a landslide and be in power for a long time. Time for another hundred or so to stand up in the Tory party and 2019 can be rescued.
Unfortunately both parties have ceded power to opinion pollsters who propose solutions the people think they want, but the people answering them have not had time or resource to understand the related complexities involved in delivering them. This just leads to a cycle of continual disappointment where politicians over promise and under deliver.
I would say the centre ground is delivering Brexit rather than blocking it. Certainly what the polls suggest.
Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.
The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hoovering
There are also quite a lot of Lab-Con marginals that are not even long shots for the Cons to pick up. Overall, across the whole country, there are 36 seats where Lab is 1st and Con 2nd, and where it would take a 4% swing or less for the Conservatives to win the seat. 30 of these 36 are outside London and the South and in 28 of these Leave won the plurality in the referendum. 15 are in the North, 9 in the West and East Midlands, 3 in the East and 3 in Wales. Only 2 (both Remain) seats are in London.
In those 28 seats the most of the leave voters were Conservative voters. To get a 4% swing overall, you need a huge swing from within the relatively small group of normally Labour voting Leave voters. The normally Labour voting Remain voters will pretty much all stay with Labour or vote LD.
You don't need them to switch Labour to Conservative. If they stay at home that, aligned with some direct switchers, would put the Tories ahead in a number of Labour seats.
Well done him! He is spot on, whichever main party that returns to the centre and tries to bring the country together will win a landslide and be in power for a long time. Time for another hundred or so to stand up in the Tory party and 2019 can be rescued.
Unfortunately both parties have ceded power to opinion pollsters who propose solutions the people think they want, but the people answering them have not had time or resource to understand the related complexities involved in delivering them. This just leads to a cycle of continual disappointment where politicians over promise and under deliver.
I would say the centre ground is delivering Brexit rather than blocking it. Certainly what the polls suggest.
He is supporting his local MP who does not want to block Brexit. Stewart pledged to rule out revoke and 2nd ref, his only option was to Brexit!!! He voted for it, was the only cabinet minister willing to argue for it!
Why do people assume anti no dealers are anti Brexit. It is the no dealers who have stopped Brexit happening so far!
“I’ve spent the last few hours looking at this market I’ve decided to buy Brexit Party, Green Party, and Lib Dems seats, my rationale for this is that there’s not much downside for these parties on this market, and potentially huge upsides.”
Firstly, Sanders in 2016 gave the impression that he has the ego to continue his campaign in all circumstances.
Secondly, I am far from sure Sanders votes will transfer as a bloc to Warren in any event. A fair proportion of Sanders' vote actually rather likes the old white man concept (not that they'd put it in those terms) and are therefore inclined to Biden. And Sanders has had a somewhat brutal tussle with Warren which may erode the transfer.
If Boris is Charles I as some over eager people put it, I wonder when he'll sacrifice his chief adviser
iirc Dominic Cummings is due to leave Number 10 shortly for other (medical) reasons so he might easily be sacrificed by Boris the day before he'd be gone anyway.
Comments
Oh wait, lab majority market doesn't go negative. As you were.
What am I missing?
The sensible answer would have been “we look forward to a Conservative majority when the cowardly opposition agree to a general election” no harm, no foul.
Otherwise if we extend at Johnson's request, surely the Brexit Party won't want a pact with him.
Or if we leave without a deal under Johnson, the Brexit Party loses its raison d'etre.
This has been an absolubte disaster of a day for the Tories, the court of public opinion* has been fine for them till now...
* The bit they need at any rate.
You are right. It is exactly the same as in 1975 [ and indeed 2016 ] when Wilson came back with an "improved" package [ much like Cameron did ] and Ministers and MPs had a free vote.
Basically, it would be Labour's WA vs Remain. I would vote Remain. Yes, MPs can vote against a Labour negotiated WA just like Johnson, Gove, Grayling, Villiers ….did.
Alles klar.
I mean its not every day a court says the PM has mislead the Queen and acted illegally...
It's quite conceivable that the Supreme Court will overall the Court of Session, but the position as it stands is this prorogation was unlawful, so it seems perfectly fair to report that.
Boris is also Unionists favourite politician ahead of Arlene Foster and Nigel Farage but amongst Northern Ireland voters as a whole Alliance Party leader Naomi Long leads and she also leads with Nationalists even beating Sinn Fein leader Michelle O'Neil and Irish PM Leo Varadkar
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/09/lord-ashcroft-my-northern-ireland-polling-six-out-of-ten-voters-accept-the-backstop-but-only-one-in-five-unionists-do-so.html
It is a fairly painless concession from the Labour leadership to the current policy, that frees up both Thornberry/Starmer and Labour leavers to give the policy more support.
Our politicians really lack imagination.
ii) They polled 5 million in the European elections. The Tories need plenty of those votes this time round.
Why not just come out with some soft pedalled guff about the best way to deliver Brexit is to vote Conservative rather than launching a gratuitous attack on Farage & Banks ?
Do the Tories seriously think any significant remainer vote is coming back to them ?
Many Farage fanboys wont go Boris anyway, pact or not
"The single most important reason, really, for why I wanted to get out of the EU is I think that it will drain the poison of a lot of political debates … UKIP and Nigel Farage would be finished."
He is running the govt, does he sound like someone who wants a pact? People assume he is a no dealer as he is a ruthless reckless arse, which fits the no deal stereotype very nicely. I think they are wrong and he is trying to get the Tory party into a place where it can pass a deal after this extension.
A polling site without noticeable biases.
* WA 2.0 if you like, with a "not a backstop" backstop.
Losing control of the election timetable may actually force them into a Brexit pact, but I strongly doubt they are at all keen on it.
Soft brexit is the only stable outcome.
Con 32 (-3)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 19 (nc)
Brexit 14 (+2)
Green 7 (nc)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/11/voting-intention-con-32-lab-23-lib-dem-19-brex-14-
We don't know when the election will be, who has forced it, whether we are in or out of the EU, nor indeed who the PM will be.
Big upside and downside risks...
Get it right, Alastair.
Whether that would be enough to materially change anything remains to be seen
On a related matter, does anyone know of a comprehensive list of candidates declared so far in all constituencies?
Baxter: Con 354, Lab 195, LD 39, SNP 38.
Unfortunately both parties have ceded power to opinion pollsters who propose solutions the people think they want, but the people answering them have not had time or resource to understand the related complexities involved in delivering them. This just leads to a cycle of continual disappointment where politicians over promise and under deliver.
Why do people assume anti no dealers are anti Brexit. It is the no dealers who have stopped Brexit happening so far!
Said the fly to the spider
Secondly, I am far from sure Sanders votes will transfer as a bloc to Warren in any event. A fair proportion of Sanders' vote actually rather likes the old white man concept (not that they'd put it in those terms) and are therefore inclined to Biden. And Sanders has had a somewhat brutal tussle with Warren which may erode the transfer.