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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    On and on it goes...

    I didn't think Westminster's standing could get any lower than the Expense's Scandal but that pales into insigifcantce compared to recent events.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    British Airways is a shit service I refuse to use.

    On more than one occasion they've lost or misplaced my luggage, one time for a wedding in New York and my morning suit and most of my clothes ended up in Australia I think.

    They also billed me four times for the same journey once.

    If BA were a pizza topping they'd be pineapple.

    Talking about airlines, I'm quite happy for the police to user rubber bullets on Extinction Rebellion splitters this week if they actually do use drones at Heathrow.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/29/holidaymakers-face-flight-chaos-extinction-rebellion-splinter/

    You would like to see the use of firearms on people as a summary punishment for criminal activity? Is that in lieu of arresting them, or just an additional frisson of violence you'd like to see added to the equation?
    These bellends could bring down a few airplanes, they need to know that there will be serious consequences for them.
    I don't see how, if they stick to what they claim they are going to do. They are NOT planning to fly drones in the path of aeroplanes.
    If someone breaks the law, the normal course of action is to arrest them. Shooting people to make an example of them is not the way we do things here.
    I was clear that using live ammo wasn't what I want, that's why I suggest rubber bullets.
    It's still shooting them, when simply handcuffing and taking them to a police cell them will do the trick. You might as well be advocating they get hit with an iron bar before being arrested.
    If ISIS pulled this stunt they'd get shot, ISIS needs to learn that we take this stuff seriously.
    But ISIS generally are looking to injure or maim people, and therefore shooting them before they can do so may be a priority. So far, these environmentalists haven't killed anyone, and have just caused disruption.

    Though I do fear it's a small step for some of their more lunatic contingent, by accident or deliberately.
    BiB - Probably hard to attribute a death to their actions, but the disruption in London back in April resulted in difficulties in getting to St Thomas's Hospital. The usually mild Matthew Syed was especially angry that it had had a detrimental affect on the care his father was receiving at the hospital.

    But not too many doctors/nurses commute by plane into and out of Heathrow!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    The the thread header, I thought the betting markets were usually more or less derivatives of the polls? The polls are almost always wrong, so it follows the betting markets are too.

    Too many people gambling on politics gamble with their hearts, not their heads. It's like Dr Foxy putting a tenner every August on Leicester to win the Premiership. Just once in a lifetime it comes off, but normally he's simply contributing to Shadsy's Christmas Party.
    In like manner many people would like to believe the Tories, Labour LibDems are doing well, so bet on them. They talk to their friends and family, most of whom think the same way that they do.
    And traditional Liberals don't gamble. The Tories are the bookmakers party. Or were.
    It's one of the reasons I like this site. People gamble thoughtfully. Some of them, anyway.
    Probably guilty of it myself. With only subjective data to go on, your political thinking is bound to overlap with your betting mind. I thought I was a bit unlucky with UKIP in 2015 as I backed lots of seats and beat the price, but they only got one for 13%

    If Leave hadn’t won the referendum if prob be a big loser on political punting, thank God they paid out before the weigh in!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    If we are forced into a second referendum and Remain wins 52 - 48, what concessions would you plan to give to the 48%?

    Blue passports.
    Get Heartbeat back on TV.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    Noo said:

    eristdoof said:

    This is the problem:

    406 constituencies voted to Leave, 242 voted to remain.
    148 Labour constituencies voted to Leave, 84 voted to Remain
    247 Tory constituencies voted to Leave, 80 voted to Remain.
    9 regions voted to Leave, 3 voted to Remain.
    160 MP’s voted to Leave 486 voted to Remain.

    Which is why we need an election.

    BUT - it seems vanishingly unlikely that BJ can win big, so we will remain in stasis, unable to decide anything, until the EU finally boots us out without a Deal. I can't really see a way that avoids No Deal.

    "vanishingly unlikely"? The YouGov poll waves......
    What we are most likely to get is Tories largest party but out of power, with some kind of bodged up "coalition of the losers", led by the most unpopular UK politician in history ensconced in No 10. Things could get a whole lot worse.
    As the largest party, the Conservatives would be the losers if they can't find enough MPs to form a coalition. That's how politics works.
    Yes, I get that. But a Corbyn-led arranaement will soon run into trouble and there is very likely to be a mighty voter backlash which would put his partners (LibDems and SNP, presumably) in a pretty awkward spot. Blackford and Swinson should be careful of what they wish for. The law of unintended political consequences has some way to run.
    Could there also be a "mighty voter backlash" at a Conservative-led grouping that had 45% of the popular vote? Or does it only run one way?
    Possibly, if they screw up. But there won't be a Conservative-led grouping as the only other party that would support them is the DUP.

    My hypothesis is a Corbyn-led grouping in power in the face of a Tory opposition, in a HoC in which the Tories are the largest party. Just think that could make today's shenanigans look like a picnic.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    There should be penalties for raising a 'point of order' that isn't a point of order

    I'd suggest a week suspension (no pay) and unable to vote in that time - losing money and disenfranchising your constituents should make some of the thickies think twice...

    We could shoot them with rubber bullets, to show ISIS we're committed to an efficient parliamentary process.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Byronic said:

    His tweet stream is intriguing. He used to be incensed about the supremacy of the English language in the EU (and elsewhere), now he is annoyed but weary. Almost resigned.

    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
    Trolling from the new Commission:
    https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/1171316402759852032
    what a bellend
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    On and on it goes...

    I didn't think Westminster's standing could get any lower than the Expense's Scandal but that pales into insigifcantce compared to recent events.
    I’m sorry but you’re so caught up in your own prejudice that you can’t see the wood from the trees.
  • GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    On and on it goes...

    I didn't think Westminster's standing could get any lower than the Expense's Scandal but that pales into insigifcantce compared to recent events.
    I'd love a US President who did not use the hideous device of presidential pardons. I'd also love a PM who, when leaving office, refused to give out honours.

    (Of the two, I'd say the former is orders of magnitude more worrisome).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    FPT
    MikeL said:

    Anyone betting on no GE this year would be very encouraged by interview with Stephen Pound on LBC just now.

    He was completely dismissive of a GE in Nov or Dec - said can't have a GE in those months as too cold and dark - which would badly affect turnout. Also said the public don't want to be distracted from Christmas(!)

    Furthermore he said little or no point in having a GE in any case as would produce another divided Parliament which would be unable to make any more progress on Brexit than the current Parliament.

    As predicted. Didn't take long did it? Gutless, cowardly and frit!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    On and on it goes...

    I didn't think Westminster's standing could get any lower than the Expense's Scandal but that pales into insigifcantce compared to recent events.
    I'd love a US President who did not use the hideous device of presidential pardons. I'd also love a PM who, when leaving office, refused to give out honours.

    (Of the two, I'd say the former is orders of magnitude more worrisome).
    Blair didn't give any, did he?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited September 2019

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    If the Tories win High Peak Boris likely wins a small Tory majority yes
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    isam said:

    The the thread header, I thought the betting markets were usually more or less derivatives of the polls? The polls are almost always wrong, so it follows the betting markets are too.

    The polls aren't always wrong, provided you define "wrong" very narrowly. If you define a successful poll as "predicts who gets the most votes" then they are mostly right. There have been cases when they were wrong (2015 is the obvious one) but even in 2017 they correctly predicted con most votes.

    Gamblers consider all sources of information and so can discard rogue polls. This makes them more accurate than polling. But "better" is not the same as "good" and the different risk appetite and wealth of gamblers introduces its own bias. Wisdom of crowds depends on wrong people being wrong at random, but right people being right in the same direction. But political gamblers are not all wrong at random and there are not enough right people to override them. So although they are better than polls, they are not as good as they could be. Hence the gyrations you see in the article.
  • tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    On and on it goes...

    I didn't think Westminster's standing could get any lower than the Expense's Scandal but that pales into insigifcantce compared to recent events.
    I'd love a US President who did not use the hideous device of presidential pardons. I'd also love a PM who, when leaving office, refused to give out honours.

    (Of the two, I'd say the former is orders of magnitude more worrisome).
    Blair didn't give any, did he?
    He didn't because the cash for honours investigation was ongoing.

    Probably denied Alastair Campbell a knighthood.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic...
    If you mash together Sean and Byron, you end up with Sauron...

    Just saying.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    It is pretty ridiculous MPs complaining they are being silenced when they have twice rejected an election campaign with all the publicity that brings.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    British Airways is a shit service I refuse to use.

    On more than one occasion they've lost or misplaced my luggage, one time for a wedding in New York and my morning suit and most of my clothes ended up in Australia I think.

    They also billed me four times for the same journey once.

    If BA were a pizza topping they'd be pineapple.

    Talking about airlines, I'm quite happy for the police to user rubber bullets on Extinction Rebellion splitters this week if they actually do use drones at Heathrow.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/29/holidaymakers-face-flight-chaos-extinction-rebellion-splinter/

    You would like to see the use of firearms on people as a summary punishment for criminal activity? Is that in lieu of arresting them, or just an additional frisson of violence you'd like to see added to the equation?
    These bellends could bring down a few airplanes, they need to know that there will be serious consequences for them.
    I don't see how, if they stick to what they claim they are going to do. They are NOT planning to fly drones in the path of aeroplanes.
    If someone breaks the law, the normal course of action is to arrest them. Shooting people to make an example of them is not the way we do things here.
    No, you just did it in Derry and Amritsar! :trollface:
    not enough room to finish off that list of yours
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    It is pretty ridiculous MPs complaining they are being silenced when they have twice rejected an election campaign with all the publicity that brings.

    Indeed. Rather than stopping the "coup" they've voted to let the "coup" continue. :D
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2019

    Britain elects forgot to tweet the bottom two. Ooops, an oversight that rather changes the overall picture
    The projected majorities for Tory leads of 8% and 9% are wildly inaccurate. Even a 9% Tory lead would only produce 29 gains from Labour on UNS - offset by 11 losses to the LDs and perhaps 10 to the SNP. That would give the Tories 325 seats - on the cusp of a bare majority.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    On and on it goes...

    I didn't think Westminster's standing could get any lower than the Expense's Scandal but that pales into insigifcantce compared to recent events.
    I'd love a US President who did not use the hideous device of presidential pardons. I'd also love a PM who, when leaving office, refused to give out honours.

    (Of the two, I'd say the former is orders of magnitude more worrisome).
    I would go with the latter myself
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited September 2019
    Dismas64 said:

    So, what does the PB collective think about Day 2 of BAs attempt to trash a once great brand? The absence of much comment or care in the media about the fact that our National Carrier is grounded seems to me to reflect that BA is without much sympathy. Business users will not dare to book a flight with them for the next 6 weeks or more and that loss of revenue could be terminal. Good luck to pilots seeking to have a share in the profits - their actions means these will be as rare as a happy BA stewardess! BA= Bloody Awful

    BA has cut costs so much to be turning a healthy profit now which can tidy it over for some time, the problem is it might have come at the expense of quality so it might need to redress the balance a bit and pay its pilots a bit more.

    However with Ryanair, IAG's biggest European rival for UK continental flights now also seeing strikes shortly it is not alone having problems cutting costs too much and having striking pilots
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    High Peak's not a bad shout, but it's a bit too white and rural to THAT nationally reflective.

    Watford I think is slightly more of a bellwether -- the Brexit and 2017 results were slightly closer to the national average, demographically it's a bit more in line with average.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    I once had a trainee who was formerly a colonel in the Marines, law being a second career for him. He told me that he once had to chair a Court Martial because a sentry had failed to shoot intruders at Faslane. Some environmentalists had broken in and then climbed onto one of the nuclear submarines to put up a banner of some sort.

    Asked why he had not shot the person responsible the sentry replied, "well sir, I could see that he was only a woolly hatter."

    He was of course convicted despite showing the level of common sense and proportionality that makes the British forces really stand out among serious armies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic...
    If you mash together Sean and Byron, you end up with Sauron...

    Just saying.
    Or Bean

    Ah, my coat. So kind... :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited September 2019

    Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Just wait until Bozo has to extend, and half the Tory vote jumps ship to Farage.
    Boris will never extend, he will correctly take the Tories into opposition before October 31st and resign as PM rather than agree to extend though unless a Deal has passed he likely loses a VONC by the end of October anyway forcing a GE
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    One of the great things about pro rogation is you can now watch TV news without a bunch of flag waving dickheads yelling in the background

    Unfortunately we will undoubtedly have them back at Parliament House in Edinburgh tomorrow when the Inner House are due to give their judgment. Its really weird because they go to town with blue cloaks with stars on them, a surprising number of laurel wreaths (1 would surprise me in fairness) and of course EU flags. I may try and work at home.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    Thank you for that. Very informative. I take it this means, loosely, that a GE fought on leave/remain lines favours the Conservatives at present levels of support.

    Useful insight for betting.
    Yes - the data is from Electoral Calculus and shows an overall majority of 14 for the Tories. But is is very sensitive to assumptions on tactical voting (Con/BXP and Lab/LD/Grn) as well as share. It's extremely close and hard to predict.

    But keep an eye on HIGH PEAK. Focus groups of LD and BXP voters there would be very useful!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic...
    If you mash together Sean and Byron, you end up with Sauron...

    Just saying.
    Where do you get the u from?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited September 2019
    The proposed EU Commission

    Frans Timmermans (Netherlands, PES): Executive Vice President + European Green Deal

    Margrethe Vestager (Denmark, ALDE): Executive Vice President + Europe Fit for Digital Age

    Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia, Greens): Executive Vice President + An Economy that Works for People

    Josep Borrell (Spain, PES): High Representative for Foreign Affairs + Vice Presidency

    Věra Jourová (Czech Republic, ALDE): Values and Transparency + Vice Presidency

    Margaritis Schinas (Greece, EPP): Protecting our European Way of Life + Vice Presidency

    Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia, PES): Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight + Vice Presidency

    Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP): Democracy and Demography + Vice Presidency. Šuica will also lead, from the Commission side, the work on the Conference on the Future of Europe.


    Johannes Hahn (Austria, EPP) Budget and Administration

    Didier Reynders (Belgium, ALDE): Justice, including rule of law

    Mariya Gabriel (Bulgaria, EPP): Innovation and Youth.

    Stella Kyriakides (Cyprus, EPP): Health

    Kadri Simson (Estonia, ALDE): Energy.

    Jutta Urpilainen (Finland, PES): International Partnerships.

    Sylvie Goulard (France ALDE): Internal Market + responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space.

    László Trócsányi (Hungary, EPP): Enlargement.

    Phil Hogan (Ireland, EPP): Trade.

    Paolo Gentiloni (Italy, PES): Economic and Financial Affairs.

    Virginijus Sinkevičius (Lithuania): Environment and Oceans.

    Nicolas Schmit (Luxembourg, PES) : Employment.

    Helena Dalli (Malta, PES): Equality

    Janusz Wojciechowski (Poland, ECR): Agriculture.

    Elisa Ferreira (Portugal, PES) : Cohesion and Reforms.

    Rovana Plumb (Romania, PES): Transport.

    Janez Lenarčič (Slovenia, ALDE): Crisis Management

    Ylva Johansson (Sweden, PES): Home Affairs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Oh I'm devastated. Turnabouts fair play, we all get to laugh at another at some point.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Dura_Ace said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    If we are forced into a second referendum and Remain wins 52 - 48, what concessions would you plan to give to the 48%?

    Blue passports.
    Get Heartbeat back on TV.
    Alf Garnett on the £20 note.
  • DavidL said:

    I once had a trainee who was formerly a colonel in the Marines, law being a second career for him. He told me that he once had to chair a Court Martial because a sentry had failed to shoot intruders at Faslane. Some environmentalists had broken in and then climbed onto one of the nuclear submarines to put up a banner of some sort.

    Asked why he had not shot the person responsible the sentry replied, "well sir, I could see that he was only a woolly hatter."

    He was of course convicted despite showing the level of common sense and proportionality that makes the British forces really stand out among serious armies.

    Common sense and proportionality?

    The victims from Bloody Sunday say hello.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    HYUFD said:



    Boris will never extend, he will correctly take the Tories into opposition before October 31st and resign as PM rather than agree to extend though unless a Deal has passed he likely loses a VONC by the end of October anyway forcing a GE

    I completely get the first bit but it's what happens IF an alternative Government is formed and agrees a 24 month extension which it then passes into law in the UK Parliament.

    Boris has the polling numbers but not the Parliamentary numbers to force a GE and such will only happen IF no alternative Government can be formed in the 14 day period after a successful Vote of No Confidence.

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Danny565 said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    High Peak's not a bad shout, but it's a bit too white and rural to THAT nationally reflective.

    Watford I think is slightly more of a bellwether -- the Brexit and 2017 results were slightly closer to the national average, demographically it's a bit more in line with average.
    Danny565 said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    High Peak's not a bad shout, but it's a bit too white and rural to THAT nationally reflective.

    Watford I think is slightly more of a bellwether -- the Brexit and 2017 results were slightly closer to the national average, demographically it's a bit more in line with average.
    With its LibDem mayor and strong LibDem track record on the council, it would be great it Watford were representative, but for these reasons isn’t, at least in terms of politics.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    I once had a trainee who was formerly a colonel in the Marines, law being a second career for him. He told me that he once had to chair a Court Martial because a sentry had failed to shoot intruders at Faslane. Some environmentalists had broken in and then climbed onto one of the nuclear submarines to put up a banner of some sort.

    Asked why he had not shot the person responsible the sentry replied, "well sir, I could see that he was only a woolly hatter."

    He was of course convicted despite showing the level of common sense and proportionality that makes the British forces really stand out among serious armies.

    Common sense and proportionality?

    The victims from Bloody Sunday say hello.
    No they don't. For obvious reasons.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:

    Harperson on Radio 5 this morning - basically wants to stand on the continuity Bercow ticket.

    I'd have faith she'd be a lot more even-handed - can't imagine her openly insulting government ministers from the chair, for example.
    Is that worse than insulting backbenchers? Or should they be equal?
  • Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic...
    If you mash together Sean and Byron, you end up with Sauron...

    Just saying.
    "Your message on PB horrifies me! Of course there is no possible connection between Byronic and SeanT. If you suggest such a thing anywhere, it will be the end of our beautiful friendship! For Christ's sake, lay off the idea of Byronic = SeanT. Just shut up about Byronic! F*ck you, Evelyn Waugh SeanT."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Yet more very strong economic data this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49646201

    Wages rising at the highest rate since 2008, the lost decade of wage growth coming close to an end and employment remaining at record levels. Taken with Javid's splurge our economy really should grow quite quickly next year based on strong consumer spending, government spending and no doubt ever increasing levels of debt all round. Under any normal circumstances it would be a very good context in which to have an election but few seem to be paying attention.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic...
    If you mash together Sean and Byron, you end up with Sauron...

    Just saying.
    Where do you get the u from?
    Just something that Sean Connery suggested to me...
  • Talking of BA, here's my favourite advert of all time:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBQmMEHqm-g
  • Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:

    Harperson on Radio 5 this morning - basically wants to stand on the continuity Bercow ticket.

    I'd have faith she'd be a lot more even-handed - can't imagine her openly insulting government ministers from the chair, for example.
    Is that worse than insulting backbenchers? Or should they be equal?
    She should be an equal opportunities insulter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited September 2019
    justin124 said:

    Britain elects forgot to tweet the bottom two. Ooops, an oversight that rather changes the overall picture
    The projected majorities for Tory leads of 8% and 9% are wildly inaccurate. Even a 9% Tory lead would only produce 29 gains from Labour on UNS - offset by 11 losses to the LDs and perhaps 10 to the SNP. That would give the Tories 325 seats - on the cusp of a bare majority.
    A 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories actually sees the Tories gain 31 Labour seats giving them 327 overall and a majority even with the losses to the LDs and SNP as above, plus they likely win Buckingham giving 328 Tory MPs

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    Boris will never extend, he will correctly take the Tories into opposition before October 31st and resign as PM rather than agree to extend though unless a Deal has passed he likely loses a VONC by the end of October anyway forcing a GE

    I completely get the first bit but it's what happens IF an alternative Government is formed and agrees a 24 month extension which it then passes into law in the UK Parliament.

    Boris has the polling numbers but not the Parliamentary numbers to force a GE and such will only happen IF no alternative Government can be formed in the 14 day period after a successful Vote of No Confidence.

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    Who will be PM? I cannot imagine any of the party leaders allowing another to be leader.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    stooge said:



    The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    I think it is possible ... but rather unlikely.

    I mean, opposition parties have not yet even coalesced around a Leader.

    And the interests of the SNP are rather different to the interests of Lab & the LibDems. The SNP want an election asap, surely.

    And Labour & LibDems are now squabbling over the same demographic, metropolitan Remain voters. Only one of them can win.

    It is actually in the LibDem's interests that there is an election now.

    A successful caretaker Government (inevitably Labour dominated, presumably with Corbyn sidelined) will actually destroy the LibDems (again).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Britain elects forgot to tweet the bottom two. Ooops, an oversight that rather changes the overall picture
    The projected majorities for Tory leads of 8% and 9% are wildly inaccurate. Even a 9% Tory lead would only produce 29 gains from Labour on UNS - offset by 11 losses to the LDs and perhaps 10 to the SNP. That would give the Tories 325 seats - on the cusp of a bare majority.
    A 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories actually sees the Tories gain 31 seats giving them 327 overall and a majority even with the losses to the LDs and SNP as above

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    There’s no “actually” about it - all of these models are guesses, and all are likely to be wrong given that the one thing we can see about the coming election is that there are going to very different swings in different areas and regions of the country. Your comment is absurd.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    DavidL said:

    I once had a trainee who was formerly a colonel in the Marines, law being a second career for him. He told me that he once had to chair a Court Martial because a sentry had failed to shoot intruders at Faslane. Some environmentalists had broken in and then climbed onto one of the nuclear submarines to put up a banner of some sort.

    Asked why he had not shot the person responsible the sentry replied, "well sir, I could see that he was only a woolly hatter."

    He was of course convicted despite showing the level of common sense and proportionality that makes the British forces really stand out among serious armies.

    The Faslane intruders made into the inside of HMS Repulse when she was loaded with Polaris war shots. They absolutely should have been riddled with small arms fire and it wasn't "common sense" not to do so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited September 2019
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    Boris will never extend, he will correctly take the Tories into opposition before October 31st and resign as PM rather than agree to extend though unless a Deal has passed he likely loses a VONC by the end of October anyway forcing a GE

    I completely get the first bit but it's what happens IF an alternative Government is formed and agrees a 24 month extension which it then passes into law in the UK Parliament.

    Boris has the polling numbers but not the Parliamentary numbers to force a GE and such will only happen IF no alternative Government can be formed in the 14 day period after a successful Vote of No Confidence.

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    The Tories will commit to backing Brexit Deal or No Deal until it is delivered with Leavers largely united behind them, up until 2022 if necessary.

    As Scotland shows referendum impact does not go away and certainly not when the result is ignored
  • Revocation followed by an election must be a scenario that’s rising in probability.

    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1171360728462311425?s=21
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    stodge said:

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    I have a (admittedly forlorn) hope that a caretaker government might inject a bit of common sense into the leaving process, make Corbyn and Johnson look like the 2nd-raters they are, and draw crossparty support to pass the WA.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ‪Johnson’s No Deal choices:‬
    ‪1. Break the law‬
    ‪2. Break the Conservative party‬
    ‪3. Resign‬
    ‪That’s it. ‬

    4. Write to EU explaining what he intends to do with an extension
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    Why Theresa why? What makes them do it?

    Is it some sort of final power play?

    Convicted domestic abuser Geoff Boycott? Andrew Strauss??? Timothy and Hill get CBEs. As weid as Theresa herself.

    At least Kim Darroch has been given something.
  • HYUFD said:
    How many Liberal PMs talk about tank topped bum boys or piccaninnies?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    Plus with the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, India under Modi, Israel under Netanyahu, Hungary under Orban, Salvini leading the polls in Italy, Australia under Morrison etc, Boris simply reflects a global trend to the populist right at the moment in many countries
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Britain elects forgot to tweet the bottom two. Ooops, an oversight that rather changes the overall picture
    The projected majorities for Tory leads of 8% and 9% are wildly inaccurate. Even a 9% Tory lead would only produce 29 gains from Labour on UNS - offset by 11 losses to the LDs and perhaps 10 to the SNP. That would give the Tories 325 seats - on the cusp of a bare majority.
    A 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories actually sees the Tories gain 31 Labour seats giving them 327 overall and a majority even with the losses to the LDs and SNP as above, plus they likely win Buckingham giving 328 Tory MPs

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    A 9% Con lead represents a 3.25% swing from 2017! A 3.5% swing would imply a 9.5% lead.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    Plus with the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, India under Modi, Israel under Netanyahu, Hungary under Orban, Salvini leading the polls in Italy, Australia under Morrison etc, Boris simply reflects a global trend to the populist right at the moment in many countries
    85 years ago it was Hitler, Mussolini, ………..
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Danny565 said:

    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    High Peak's not a bad shout, but it's a bit too white and rural to THAT nationally reflective.

    Watford I think is slightly more of a bellwether -- the Brexit and 2017 results were slightly closer to the national average, demographically it's a bit more in line with average.
    Leave vote in Watford was 51%, the same as High Peak. Watford is also more right wing, wealthier and better educated than the national average.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Watford

    Nevertheless the prediction is similar to High Peak

    Con/BXP 47%
    Lab/LD 47.5%
    but Con are predicted to keep the seat because Lab/LD are more evenly split.

    What happens to the Green vote of about 3% could make a difference in High Peak and Watford.
  • Charles said:

    ‪Johnson’s No Deal choices:‬
    ‪1. Break the law‬
    ‪2. Break the Conservative party‬
    ‪3. Resign‬
    ‪That’s it. ‬

    4. Write to EU explaining what he intends to do with an extension
    5. No, Prime Minister, "sticking it up Hilary Benn's arse" is unlikely to be considered on either side of the equation.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
    I do get asked about it now an again by friends, family and co-workers but mostly just "haven't you guys sorted it out yet?"
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Andrew said:

    stodge said:

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    I have a (admittedly forlorn) hope that a caretaker government might inject a bit of common sense into the leaving process, make Corbyn and Johnson look like the 2nd-raters they are, and draw crossparty support to pass the WA.
    You do understand that more than half of the Labour Parliamentary Party and virtually all the others except the DUP are full blown Remainers , i.e 2nd referendum would be their minimum option; revoke preferable.
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    Plus with the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, India under Modi, Israel under Netanyahu, Hungary under Orban, Salvini leading the polls in Italy, Australia under Morrison etc, Boris simply reflects a global trend to the populist right at the moment in many countries
    You don’t agree that he’s a liberal then?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Why Theresa why? What makes them do it?

    Is it some sort of final power play?

    Convicted domestic abuser Geoff Boycott? Andrew Strauss??? Timothy and Hill get CBEs. As weid as Theresa herself.

    At least Kim Darroch has been given something.

    Has there ever been a Resignation honours list which was not controversial. It is peculiarly British. But we would not do away with it. Of course, the USA has its "pardons list".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    HYUFD said:
    How many Liberal PMs talk about tank topped bum boys or piccaninnies?
    [ REDACTED ]
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    Boris will never extend, he will correctly take the Tories into opposition before October 31st and resign as PM rather than agree to extend though unless a Deal has passed he likely loses a VONC by the end of October anyway forcing a GE

    I completely get the first bit but it's what happens IF an alternative Government is formed and agrees a 24 month extension which it then passes into law in the UK Parliament.

    Boris has the polling numbers but not the Parliamentary numbers to force a GE and such will only happen IF no alternative Government can be formed in the 14 day period after a successful Vote of No Confidence.

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    The Tories will commit to backing Brexit Deal or No Deal until it is delivered with Leavers largely united behind them, up until 2022 if necessary.

    As Scotland shows referendum impact does not go away and certainly not when the result is ignored
    Another prediction for the collection from the PB Borisites. File with 'filibuster will work' and 'royal assent won't be given' ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    Plus with the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, India under Modi, Israel under Netanyahu, Hungary under Orban, Salvini leading the polls in Italy, Australia under Morrison etc, Boris simply reflects a global trend to the populist right at the moment in many countries
    You don’t agree that he’s a liberal then?
    He was as Mayor of London, he is not now but a populist conservative however he is not quite at Bolsonaro or Trump levels yet either
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    Barnesian said:

    I've been looking at the political values, % Leave and demographic measures of each constituency to find the most typical constituency - the bellwether which encapsulates the national picture. I think it used to be said to be Basildon.

    My conclusion is that it is HIGH PEAK.

    51% Leave, centrist political values, average demographic measures.

    The Baxter prediction also encapsulates the national picture.
    For High Peak,
    Lab/LD is predicted at 48%
    Con/BXP is predicted at 47%.

    But Con gain the seat from Lab with a 0.4% majority because the Lab/LD split is forecast to be more evenly split than the Con/BXP split. It's extremely close, Tactical voting will make all the difference.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=High Peak

    As my local eye keeper, I've noted a few times that the Peak District edges, with their semi-industrial, semi-rural, commuter, villagy mix are trending more strongly red than the UK as a whole over the last few years and that seems to.hold true from Pennine West Yorkshire to, High Peak to Staffs Moorlands. I've not fully looked to see if the like of Amber Valley are following the trend where the Peak side of the district is trending red even as ttownier bits go blue, but on a straw poll I think Labour was getting on for +15 or so in Peak District wards at the locals.

    If Lib Dems and BXP roar back a bit, I would reckon Colne Valley would be as close a 4 way as any (more Lib Demmy than High Peak has tended to be, but conversely Con a bit more likely to fall.behind).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    HYUFD said:
    How many Liberal PMs talk about tank topped bum boys or piccaninnies?
    Reminds me of Trump "I'm the least racist person ever!"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    Plus with the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, India under Modi, Israel under Netanyahu, Hungary under Orban, Salvini leading the polls in Italy, Australia under Morrison etc, Boris simply reflects a global trend to the populist right at the moment in many countries
    Although Italy is now in the control of the centre-left despite your excitable predictions earlier in the summer.
  • Revocation followed by an election must be a scenario that’s rising in probability.

    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1171360728462311425?s=21

    I'm not sure I see a Commons majority for revocation, any more than No Deal*.

    Even if that's the secretly-desired eventual outcome for a large proportion of MPs, they don't say so publicly, don't think it can/should be done without EURef2, and most importantly, don't want their fingerprints on it.

    (*or Deal, tbf... hence where we are today)
  • Green ructions about their new peer:

    https://twitter.com/ShahrarAli/status/1171291044400586752
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
    People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.

    It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.

    https://twitter.com/NotThatRKelly/status/1171398529245437952?s=20

    Wha's like us, indeed
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic...
    If you mash together Sean and Byron, you end up with Sauron...

    Just saying.

    Or (Mr) Bean
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    A December election is almost at evens now on Betfair.

    I'd better dig out my thermals.
  • Revocation followed by an election must be a scenario that’s rising in probability.

    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1171360728462311425?s=21

    I'm not sure I see a Commons majority for revocation, any more than No Deal*.

    Even if that's the secretly-desired eventual outcome for a large proportion of MPs, they don't say so publicly, don't think it can/should be done without EURef2, and most importantly, don't want their fingerprints on it.

    (*or Deal, tbf... hence where we are today)
    If the EU don’t give an extension then revocation would be the only way to avoid No Deal. I think there would be a majority for it.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    HYUFD said:
    How many Liberal PMs talk about tank topped bum boys or piccaninnies?
    The tank topped bum boys was extremely homophobic, but the picaninnies line was mocking how Tony Blair saw Africans.

    I don't think Boris is either racist or anti-racist. He has a strong desire to please those around him and would be either depending on his group.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Revocation followed by an election must be a scenario that’s rising in probability.

    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1171360728462311425?s=21

    I'm not sure I see a Commons majority for revocation, any more than No Deal*.

    Even if that's the secretly-desired eventual outcome for a large proportion of MPs, they don't say so publicly, don't think it can/should be done without EURef2, and most importantly, don't want their fingerprints on it.

    (*or Deal, tbf... hence where we are today)
    If the EU don’t give an extension then revocation would be the only way to avoid No Deal. I think there would be a majority for it.
    I think I agree. Something impossible and unprecedented HAS to happen to break the Brexit logjam. Maybe it will be revoke, if the stark alternative, in a few days, is No Deal.

    I could see a terrified Commons going for it, on October 29th, if Boris has managed to sidestep the Surrender Bill and we are nodealing over the edge.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited September 2019
    "A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting.

    This would explain why MPs raised information suggesting Gov't is circumventing publishing the Yellowhammer docs"

    Extraordinary.
  • .
    Gabs2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    How many Liberal PMs talk about tank topped bum boys or piccaninnies?
    The tank topped bum boys was extremely homophobic, but the picaninnies line was mocking how Tony Blair saw Africans.

    I don't think Boris is either racist or anti-racist. He has a strong desire to please those around him and would be either depending on his group.
    Give your head a wobble, would you be okay if Boris Johnson used the n word or Zio to mock opponents?

    Boris Johnson's description of women in burqas as letter boxes and bank robbers is the language of the far right.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Jezza on the news pretending to be up for a general election.

    Hilarious. :D
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited September 2019

    Revocation followed by an election must be a scenario that’s rising in probability.

    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1171360728462311425?s=21

    I'm not sure I see a Commons majority for revocation, any more than No Deal*.

    Even if that's the secretly-desired eventual outcome for a large proportion of MPs, they don't say so publicly, don't think it can/should be done without EURef2, and most importantly, don't want their fingerprints on it.

    (*or Deal, tbf... hence where we are today)
    The Daily Mail today is quoting a Yougov poll of something like 52:28 in favour of extension as against no-deal - has that been posted up on here ?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
    People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.

    It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.

    https://twitter.com/NotThatRKelly/status/1171398529245437952?s=20

    Wha's like us, indeed
    That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    Boris will never extend, he will correctly take the Tories into opposition before October 31st and resign as PM rather than agree to extend though unless a Deal has passed he likely loses a VONC by the end of October anyway forcing a GE

    I completely get the first bit but it's what happens IF an alternative Government is formed and agrees a 24 month extension which it then passes into law in the UK Parliament.

    Boris has the polling numbers but not the Parliamentary numbers to force a GE and such will only happen IF no alternative Government can be formed in the 14 day period after a successful Vote of No Confidence.

    Boris is presumably betting that won't happen but what if it does? The caretaker Government may prove more durable and popular than you and others suspect and if it stays around for 18 months before standing down for a GE will the Conservatives will be going down about respecting the 2016 Referendum result which, by 2021, will seem like ancient history?

    The Tories will commit to backing Brexit Deal or No Deal until it is delivered with Leavers largely united behind them, up until 2022 if necessary.

    As Scotland shows referendum impact does not go away and certainly not when the result is ignored
    As things stand, if Tories go for “Deal or No Deal” they come up against Farage with “No Deal Is The Only Option” - at that point getting their vote split down to just those who want a deal, but don’t prefer a cuddly Labour deal, could be a bit catastrophic. As usual, it’s about which bloc can strategise better for an election and that remains pretty unpredictable.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Barnesian said:

    A December election is almost at evens now on Betfair.

    I'd better dig out my thermals.

    Leave voters more likely not to vote. Also non-regular voters not likely to vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    edited September 2019
    @Gabs2 Maybe because a minority in the Commons is trying to overrule the will of the majority with executive power?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    Plus with the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, India under Modi, Israel under Netanyahu, Hungary under Orban, Salvini leading the polls in Italy, Australia under Morrison etc, Boris simply reflects a global trend to the populist right at the moment in many countries
    Scott Morrison represents a centrist victory over right wing culture war populism in the unlovely shape of Peter Dutton.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Re the honours system - I know this gets done to death each time, but I fail to see why someone gets an honour for doing their job (but only in certain jobs, typically politician, civil servant, sports person, actor, CEO). And why the disparity in the award if you are higher or lower in the social standing.

    My view is awards should only be given for voluntary work and bravery and the level of the award should be dependent upon what you did not where you stand in the social hierarchy.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
    People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.

    It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.

    https://twitter.com/NotThatRKelly/status/1171398529245437952?s=20

    Wha's like us, indeed
    That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
    Yeah, I think that's maybe why Bercow announced his resignation. It means he can abandon the last pretence that he is even-handed, safe in the knowledge that he'll be on the beach with his fat pension, very soon.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    Anorak said:
    I can seriously see myself voting Loony if there ever is another election.

    A Parliament full of Loonies is no more than the loonies at Westminster deserve.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    kjh said:

    Re the honours system - I know this gets done to death each time, but I fail to see why someone gets an honour for doing their job (but only in certain jobs, typically politician, civil servant, sports person, actor, CEO). And why the disparity in the award if you are higher or lower in the social standing.

    My view is awards should only be given for voluntary work and bravery and the level of the award should be dependent upon what you did not where you stand in the social hierarchy.

    Seconded.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Revocation followed by an election must be a scenario that’s rising in probability.

    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1171360728462311425?s=21

    I'm not sure I see a Commons majority for revocation, any more than No Deal*.

    Even if that's the secretly-desired eventual outcome for a large proportion of MPs, they don't say so publicly, don't think it can/should be done without EURef2, and most importantly, don't want their fingerprints on it.

    (*or Deal, tbf... hence where we are today)
    If the EU don’t give an extension then revocation would be the only way to avoid No Deal. I think there would be a majority for it.
    I think I agree. Something impossible and unprecedented HAS to happen to break the Brexit logjam. Maybe it will be revoke, if the stark alternative, in a few days, is No Deal.

    I could see a terrified Commons going for it, on October 29th, if Boris has managed to sidestep the Surrender Bill and we are nodealing over the edge.
    And someone on the site £1,000 (formerly £10,000) poorer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited September 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
    People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.

    It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.

    https://twitter.com/NotThatRKelly/status/1171398529245437952?s=20

    Wha's like us, indeed
    That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
    He is siding "against" the executive and with the Commons.

    Edit: as is his job.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    .

    Gabs2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    How many Liberal PMs talk about tank topped bum boys or piccaninnies?
    The tank topped bum boys was extremely homophobic, but the picaninnies line was mocking how Tony Blair saw Africans.

    I don't think Boris is either racist or anti-racist. He has a strong desire to please those around him and would be either depending on his group.
    Give your head a wobble, would you be okay if Boris Johnson used the n word or Zio to mock opponents?

    Boris Johnson's description of women in burqas as letter boxes and bank robbers is the language of the far right.
    Yes, it would be. If an opponent mocked the LotO by saying "Jeremy Corbyn is just pleased he can defeat the powerful Zios that control the banks and the media", it would be clear they were mocking Corbyn's bigotry and not siding with it.

    I also don't think the far right should have exclusivity on mocking religious extremists. My secular Jewish friends and I have made fun of the appearance of the Ultra Orthodox enough.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    kjh said:

    Re the honours system - I know this gets done to death each time, but I fail to see why someone gets an honour for doing their job (but only in certain jobs, typically politician, civil servant, sports person, actor, CEO). And why the disparity in the award if you are higher or lower in the social standing.

    My view is awards should only be given for voluntary work and bravery and the level of the award should be dependent upon what you did not where you stand in the social hierarchy.

    Would add a criterion for outstanding positive world class achievement. But would limit it to say 100 living awardees, to make it properly exclusive.
  • IanB2 said:


    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it.

    Doesn't that mean everyone has already mentioned it?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.

    Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.

    It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
    it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.

    https://twitter.com/OsamaRushdi/status/1171386833546203136?s=20
    And they're laughing at it.
    Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
    I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.

    Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
    People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.

    It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.

    https://twitter.com/NotThatRKelly/status/1171398529245437952?s=20

    Wha's like us, indeed
    That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
    He is siding "against" the executive and with the Commons.

    Edit: as is his job.
    "Take Back Control!"
    "Parliament Must Be Sovereign!"

    Unless, er, I don't like it.
This discussion has been closed.