Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.
So it's not all bad news...
And where is the budget going to come from to pay for it?
I think that's already been provided for in the legislation.
So it would require a conscious act by Parliament to stop it via a new bill. They're not very good at that.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
No they didnt.
They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.
They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.
It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.
It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.
It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
You are totally out of touch with the public.
They are furious over last nights performance
Nope, I think it is the Tories that are out of touch with the public.
A PM who thinks himself above the law, and not willing to be scrutinised is a fundamental danger to British Democracy. "They call him Britain Trump"
It is manifestly absurd for a government to claim simultaneously to be renegotiating the Withdrawal agreement, and to want to fight an election campaign.
Let's see how Britain feels over the next five weeks suspension of our democratic body. I do not see a rise in Johnson's polling, indeed I think the Tories will be on about 20% by the time of the Queens speech.
Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.
So it's not all bad news...
And where is the budget going to come from to pay for it?
Someone is presumably paying the workers who are currently demolishing half of Euston station for HS2....
If there is no election until January how will the government pass a budget later in the autumn?
That’s actually an easy one.
Provided Parliament hasn’t been dissolved for an early GE most of the 21 Conservative MPs have been suspended (and solely care about) Brexit, so they’d come back.
That gets you back up to around 310 MPs.
To get the extra 12+ votes there are sides deals to be cut with independents, DUP, TiG and the Liberal Democrats.
Sure, the SNP and Labour will certainly vote against it but in a FTPA world a budget has to pass, so pass it will, as amended and as various palms are greased.
Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.
So it's not all bad news...
Why does it have to be realistic? This is Boris' govt, they could build 90% of it, say they really dont like the look of the rest of it so will throw their toys out of the pram and demand the technological solution of teleporting is found for the final 10% or they will scrap the whole thing.
Holding governments to account is fundamental to liberal democracy. The one where governments get to do as they please is called dictatorship. Please keep up.
So a question for all. Traditionally there are two votes in the Commons which are by definition Confidence votes - the Queens Speech and, especially, the Budget. This has been changed by the rotten and disastrous FTPA. So what does happen if either or these, particularly the Budget (i’m not totally sure of the practical implications of the Queens Speech - does it mean the Government can’t bring legislation before Parliament?) are voted down? Aren’t there things in the Budget that have to be passed on an annual basis or some taxes become illegal? A Government must have supply, and a Govt without it can’t be kept in power by opposition games, just because the prefer it to an election. Because the country would go bankrupt.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
What needs to change is MPs’ attitudes to forming a coalition. A general election is not going to do that. Boris Johnson is the author of his own misfortune. Instead of gathering MPs to his cause, he is throwing them away.
The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
I don't disagree with this but I remember Rory Stewart being told by John Curtice that rather than the traditional V shaped distribution there is a U shaped distribution with hardly anyone left in the middle but him. We have seen similar developments in the US where working across the Aisle seems to become ever more problematic and both parties seem to prefer ever more extreme versions of themselves as candidates. I am really not sure how we fix this but those who used to lament that there was little to choose between parties didn't know how lucky they were.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
And how did Cromwell solve the problem? Did it happen to involve getting more power for himself?
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
I would put most MPd.
All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
If you cannot see how appalling yesterday's behaviour was and the media coverage this morning confirms it you are playing the worst kind of politics
This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
I'm sorry but I respectfully disagree. And I wouldn't look to the media as some kind of independent arbiter of the matter. Most of the British press is owned by a handful of tax avoiding billionaires with no love for either democracy or this country and its people.
You are shooting the messenger. If you think the public are not shaken and angered by last night you are in denial
They are, but much of the anger is partisan - either at government, or at parliament. It's the small group in the middle that are key.
I am angry with Boris for causing my resignation from the party with his sacking of 21 good conservative mps and with parliament over their abject failure to behave in a manner that is responsible. Bercow's shouting and bullying last night would see him in all kinds of trouble were he a CEO and yet people on here defend him
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
One striking feature of the comments this morning is how very poster - Leave or Remain - seems to think public opinion is on their side. Presumably a symptom of the echo chamber response.
Should parliament have any power to protect its fundamental interests at all ? What are the implications for British liberal parliamentary democracy if parliament can be prorogued in the middle of a possibly once-in-a-century crisis , by executive fiat, and then evidence relating to this fiat process is immune from scrutiny ?
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
And how did Cromwell solve the problem? Did it happen to involve getting more power for himself?
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
No they didnt.
They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.
They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.
It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.
It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.
It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
You are totally out of touch with the public.
They are furious over last nights performance
Nope, I think it is the Tories that are out of touch with the public.
A PM who thinks himself above the law, and not willing to be scrutinised is a fundamental danger to British Democracy. "They call him Britain Trump"
It is manifestly absurd for a government to claim simultaneously to be renegotiating the Withdrawal agreement, and to want to fight an election campaign.
Let's see how Britain feels over the next five weeks suspension of our democratic body. I do not see a rise in Johnson's polling, indeed I think the Tories will be on about 20% by the time of the Queens speech.
It is fairly obvious you are both broadly right, most of the country is furious with the politicians. The reasons for the fury are a mix of partisan leave, partisan remain and pro compromise. Each of those three groups views the actions and actors very differently, so it is difficult to lump them together and make any sense of it. Foxy is describing the partisan remain reaction, BigG the pro compromise reaction.
So a question for all. Traditionally there are two votes in the Commons which are by definition Confidence votes - the Queens Speech and, especially, the Budget. This has been changed by the rotten and disastrous FTPA. So what does happen if either or these, particularly the Budget (i’m not totally sure of the practical implications of the Queens Speech - does it mean the Government can’t bring legislation before Parliament?) are voted down? Aren’t there things in the Budget that have to be passed on an annual basis or some taxes become illegal? A Government must have supply, and a Govt without it can’t be kept in power by opposition games, just because the prefer it to an election. Because the country would go bankrupt.
Correct, Income tax is renewed on an annual basis as it is technically an “emergency” tax. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Corbyn votes to abolish it?
The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
What needs to change is MPs’ attitudes to forming a coalition. A general election is not going to do that. Boris Johnson is the author of his own misfortune. Instead of gathering MPs to his cause, he is throwing them away.
The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
I agree with Mr Meeks here.
In many countries the vote is becoming less Bipartisan and more parties are getting more MPs. Even in countries which have traditionally had coalitions, the recent coalitions have had to be more diverse and required carefully collated coalition agreements.
The move away from two parties has also been a part of UK voters for many year, but the UK has a voting system which rewards the two main parties in terms of MPs and often delivers an absolute Majority. Since 2010 though, we are now in the situation where no-overall-majority is more likely than an overall majority, and the parties need to realise this. Succesfull politicians of today need to be prepared to work together and be prepared to build coalitions.
One striking feature of the comments this morning is how very poster - Leave or Remain - seems to think public opinion is on their side. Presumably a symptom of the echo chamber response.
As I said below, I believe the electorate as divided as Parliament.
Though most of us don’t expect to be expelled by our employers for considering compromise.
One striking feature of the comments this morning is how very poster - Leave or Remain - seems to think public opinion is on their side. Presumably a symptom of the echo chamber response.
Most of us think everyone basically either agrees with us, or would do if they had the relevant facts explained to them clearly enough.
The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
What needs to change is MPs’ attitudes to forming a coalition. A general election is not going to do that. Boris Johnson is the author of his own misfortune. Instead of gathering MPs to his cause, he is throwing them away.
The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
I agree with Mr Meeks here.
In many countries the vote is becoming less Bipartisan and more parties are getting more MPs. Even in countries which have traditionally had coalitions, the recent coalitions have had to be more diverse and required carefully collated coalition agreements.
The move away from two parties has also been a part of UK voters for many year, but the UK has a voting system which rewards the two main parties in terms of MPs and often delivers an absolute Majority. Since 2010 though, we are now in the situation where no-overall-majority is more likely than an overall majority, and the parties need to realise this. Succesfull politicians of today need to be prepared to work together and be prepared to build coalitions.
Yes- and this has revealed huge problems with a constitutional settlements that assumes hung parliaments are wholly exceptional rather than the norm.
One striking feature of the comments this morning is how very poster - Leave or Remain - seems to think public opinion is on their side. Presumably a symptom of the echo chamber response.
I know the public is split, and that - on many topics, not just Brexit - there is not a majority for one course of action.
Compromise - as in May's deal - is now a dirty word, rather than the oil that keeps the country running.
Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.
So it's not all bad news...
And where is the budget going to come from to pay for it?
Someone is presumably paying the workers who are currently demolishing half of Euston station for HS2....
Of course, one thing that avoiding an election while there is no government majority does mean is that there is now no realistic way of blocking HS2, regardless of what the Oakervee review says.
So it's not all bad news...
Why does it have to be realistic? This is Boris' govt, they could build 90% of it, say they really dont like the look of the rest of it so will throw their toys out of the pram and demand the technological solution of teleporting is found for the final 10% or they will scrap the whole thing.
Talking about teleporting has brought light relief.
Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.
Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
Reposted from the previous thread -
As someone who has spent more time than is reasonable in a well-ordered life getting hold of and reading electronic messages of all kinds, some free advice:-
- once you have created something electronically never ever think that you can delete it. You can’t. One way or another you will be caught out. - If you use a personal device for work messages (a bloody stupid thing to do if you are in government) you cannot claim that this is private stuff and exempt from disclosure, whether under the GPDR or the ECHR or whatever principle or law you’ve just plucked out of your arse in the hope that you won’t be caught or embarrassed. - Grieve is not persecuting some minor SPADS. He has listed 9 names because they are people involved in the discussions around prorogation and can reasonably be expected to have relevant evidence. - It is unusual for a party to a case not to provide evidence on oath to support what it is saying. If, as appears to be the case, no-one was prepared to sign a witness statement on behalf of the government that suggests that there may be questions as to why and whether that was because the full accurate story was not being told. - That matters because trust in what Ministers say - whether to Parliament or a court - matters. I know this may seem like old-fashioned nonsense these days. But it is still true. And it is absolutely right that this government should be held to account for it.
This will make me even more unpopular this evening but Grieve, as a former A-G, knows what he is talking about it here and is absolutely right to demand full and frank disclosure about what the government was doing, when and what it was saying to Parliament, the court and the public.
You've been making some of the best comments and the occasional header of late - much appreciated.
Holding governments to account is fundamental to liberal democracy. The one where governments get to do as they please is called dictatorship. Please keep up.
They are not holding them to account. They are holding the whole country in contempt
Holding governments to account is fundamental to liberal democracy. The one where governments get to do as they please is called dictatorship. Please keep up.
They are not holding them to account. They are holding the whole country in contempt
Oh FFS. Evidence of criminal conduct by senior government officials should just be buried?
Criminal conduct? There may well have been some pretty base political calculations leading to the decision to prorogate but criminal? I don't think so.
Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
There seems to be a growing belief among our ruling class that conducting public business over private systems exempts them from scrutiny.
Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
Modern commerce is now conducted over WhatsApp and WeChat. Email is just the means that your utility company bills you by. It’s quite ordinary for the finer details of $1bn business deals to be agreed over one of these two platforms (depending upon your time zone of operation). It stands to reason that politics is following the same trend.
This is not great news for the monitors of insider trading or guardians of political transparency, given the systems are secure end-to-end and the triviality of deleting all record of a conversation if both parties are willing. Oh well, I’m sure you’ll all get over it and find something else to get outraged by before breakfast.
Like many scandals it is not the act it is the cover up. Prorogue parliament because you want to push through no deal fine (!). But don't lie about it. That is not fine.
Just finished watching all the ceremony and drama on BBC Parliament. The break down of ettiquette after a very unusual prorogation is a very bad sign. As is the first hint the State opening will be scaled down and not feature Her Majesty given the very odd circumstances.
Wise counsel ensured Her Majesty wasn't there tonight to be anywhere near that shitshow. The actions and words of John Bercow and some Opposition MPs were genuinely shocking and an absolute disgrace.
One thing is for sure, the role of Speaker is forever ruined now, to be filled only by a partisan figure, thanks to the little man and his fans in Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
One day there is going to be a reckoning.
Oh they'll be a reckoning alright. The next non Conservative Government will remove prorogation from the Crown Perogative and put it into statute law.
Really? Thry might find that power useful and 'fail' to get to it by mistake.
Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
Its like a private phone being used to pass on insider trading. We decided quite some time ago that was not desirable and needed to be stopped. But as I said down thread correspondence was produced to the Court of Session last week and is already in the public domain.
All pubs within 2 miles of Downing Street should have hidden microphones incase govt members talk to each other about stuff Grieve doesn’t like.
Thought crimes next.
What strikes me about the discussion is how utterly silly and puerile so many of the comments are.
Holding governments to account is fundamental to liberal democracy. The one where governments get to do as they please is called dictatorship. Please keep up.
Absolutely. There is no parallel whatsoever between this challenge and current abuses of institutional power in eastern europe, usually in fact by over-mighty executives. At what stage in Turkey, Hungary, or Poland have parliaments forced the executive to hand over messages ? The only real current parallel is Mueller's investigation of communications and challenge to the executive in the United States, which is hardly a challenge to democracy - quite the opposite, in fact.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
How? By closing the door to a disastrous no deal Brexit? I would say that was highly responsible behaviour.
If you cannot see how appalling yesterday's behaviour was and the media coverage this morning confirms it you are playing the worst kind of politics
This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
I'm sorry but I respectfully disagree. And I wouldn't look to the media as some kind of independent arbiter of the matter. Most of the British press is owned by a handful of tax avoiding billionaires with no love for either democracy or this country and its people.
You are shooting the messenger. If you think the public are not shaken and angered by last night you are in denial
I have said nothing about what other people think about this, I am simply expressing my own views. Public opinion is something for politicians to worry about, not private citizens like me. No doubt many are angry with parliament, many are angry about the government, many are just angry full stop, and many don't give a monkey's. Just spare me the confected outrage of the British press, who are just as responsible for the current shit show as anybody else.
I am angry with Boris for causing my resignation from the party with his sacking of 21 good conservative mps and with parliament over their abject failure to behave in a manner that is responsible. Bercow's shouting and bullying last night would see him in all kinds of trouble were he a CEO and yet people on here defend him
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
In business, if 21 employees decamped to your competitor with your trade secrets, intent on taking your customers away after you had landed your biggest ever order - and had then set about doing that, despite previous assurances they would not - how willing would you have been to have them back?
a) not very willing?
b) no way are they ever coming back?
c) where's my shotgun?
The 21 knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences of their actions. If Boris has them back, he can have my membership too.
Theyd already adequately demonstrated and argued how much they disagreed with what was happening. The theatrics was to get more news and make themselves feel better.
Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
There seems to be a growing belief among our ruling class that conducting public business over private systems exempts them from scrutiny.
Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
Modern commerce is now conducted over WhatsApp and WeChat. Email is just the means that your utility company bills you by. It’s quite ordinary for the finer details of $1bn business deals to be agreed over one of these two platforms (depending upon your time zone of operation). It stands to reason that politics is following the same trend.
This is not great news for the monitors of insider trading or guardians of political transparency, given the systems are secure end-to-end and the triviality of deleting all record of a conversation if both parties are willing. Oh well, I’m sure you’ll all get over it and find something else to get outraged by before breakfast.
On the plus side contracts agreed this way lead to far more gainful employment for lawyers than the traditional formal contract. Talking of which, I must away.
Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.
Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
Reposted from the previous thread -
As someone who has spent more time than is reasonable in a well-ordered life getting hold of and reading electronic messages of all kinds, some free advice:-
- once you have created something electronically never ever think that you can delete it. You can’t. One way or another you will be caught out. - If you use a personal device for work messages (a bloody stupid thing to do if you are in government) you cannot claim that this is private stuff and exempt from disclosure, whether under the GPDR or the ECHR or whatever principle or law you’ve just plucked out of your arse in the hope that you won’t be caught or embarrassed. - Grieve is not persecuting some minor SPADS. He has listed 9 names because they are people involved in the discussions around prorogation and can reasonably be expected to have relevant evidence. - It is unusual for a party to a case not to provide evidence on oath to support what it is saying. If, as appears to be the case, no-one was prepared to sign a witness statement on behalf of the government that suggests that there may be questions as to why and whether that was because the full accurate story was not being told. - That matters because trust in what Ministers say - whether to Parliament or a court - matters. I know this may seem like old-fashioned nonsense these days. But it is still true. And it is absolutely right that this government should be held to account for it.
This will make me even more unpopular this evening but Grieve, as a former A-G, knows what he is talking about it here and is absolutely right to demand full and frank disclosure about what the government was doing, when and what it was saying to Parliament, the court and the public.
You've been making some of the best comments and the occasional header of late - much appreciated.
While I do not always agree, Cyclefree is a class act on this forum
"Most seats" and "majority" are not the same thing.
I do think Cons are on for most seats, but not to be in government. They have no allies, and Johnson has no political capital to spend with other parties. He cannot be trusted, and on the policy of No Deal no other party will accept the position.
I am angry with Boris for causing my resignation from the party with his sacking of 21 good conservative mps and with parliament over their abject failure to behave in a manner that is responsible. Bercow's shouting and bullying last night would see him in all kinds of trouble were he a CEO and yet people on here defend him
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
In business, if 21 employees decamped to your competitor with your trade secrets, intent on taking your customers away after you had landed your biggest ever order - and had then set about doing that, despite previous assurances they would not - how willing would you have been to have them back?
a) not very willing?
b) no way are they ever coming back?
c) where's my shotgun?
The 21 knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences of their actions. If Boris has them back, he can have my membership too.
The 21 employees didn’t decamp, they were laid off after the company claimed their department was being closed. As soon as they left HR began hiring replacements the CEO approved of.
I am angry with Boris for causing my resignation from the party with his sacking of 21 good conservative mps and with parliament over their abject failure to behave in a manner that is responsible. Bercow's shouting and bullying last night would see him in all kinds of trouble were he a CEO and yet people on here defend him
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
In business, if 21 employees decamped to your competitor with your trade secrets, intent on taking your customers away after you had landed your biggest ever order - and had then set about doing that, despite previous assurances they would not - how willing would you have been to have them back?
a) not very willing?
b) no way are they ever coming back?
c) where's my shotgun?
The 21 knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences of their actions. If Boris has them back, he can have my membership too.
The 21 employees didn’t decamp, they were laid off after the company claimed their department was being closed. As soon as they left HR began hiring replacements the CEO approved of.
They had already started working for the opposition before they were kicked out. I hope every one of them is out of Parliament at the next election.
Theyd already adequately demonstrated and argued how much they disagreed with what was happening. The theatrics was to get more news and make themselves feel better.
Indeed - they wanted the footage for their smug virtue signalling tweets.
I am angry with Boris for causing my resignation from the party with his sacking of 21 good conservative mps and with parliament over their abject failure to behave in a manner that is responsible. Bercow's shouting and bullying last night would see him in all kinds of trouble were he a CEO and yet people on here defend him
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
In business, if 21 employees decamped to your competitor with your trade secrets, intent on taking your customers away after you had landed your biggest ever order - and had then set about doing that, despite previous assurances they would not - how willing would you have been to have them back?
a) not very willing?
b) no way are they ever coming back?
c) where's my shotgun?
The 21 knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences of their actions. If Boris has them back, he can have my membership too.
The 21 employees didn’t decamp, they were laid off after the company claimed their department was being closed. As soon as they left HR began hiring replacements the CEO approved of.
That is bullshit as well you know.
To use your analogy, they closed their own department. By being complete and utter c****.
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
He was spot on. And their reluctance to face their employers is telling.
MPs have sat for just two years in this Parliament. What’s the hurry for a fresh election? It’s not as though there’s any particular reason to expect a radically different result.
The hurry is the lack of a government. If we had a majority or a stable coalition with a majority there would be no hurry at all. Instead we have absolute chaos, a government who cannot pass any bills, an opposition who seek to make governing ever more impossible and to tie the hands of a government seeking to negotiate on the country's behalf. I accept that there is no guarantee that the next Parliament will be any better but this self indulgent buffoonery has to stop.
What needs to change is MPs’ attitudes to forming a coalition. A general election is not going to do that. Boris Johnson is the author of his own misfortune. Instead of gathering MPs to his cause, he is throwing them away.
The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
I think this is true for non-Tory MPs. There is a window where the Tories don't win a majority and can do a deal with the DUP. That's what we had in 2017. But it's an incredibly narrow window. May was a few thousand votes* off a majority and few thousand votes above being out of office. The purge of anti-No Dealers from the Tory Party, in my opinion means that the Tories only need to just get across the line.
For everyone else, however, coalition building is very much the order of the day. It looks very difficult for Labour to win an outright majority without Scotland. It would need them to hold on to a decent amount of the 2017 vote while seeing the Tory vote split. Possible, but much harder in my opinion.
That's not to say that I think that the current Tory strategy will work. But I'd say that we are very much in a situation where it's the Tories vs everyone else.
I am angry with Boris for causing my resignation from the party with his sacking of 21 good conservative mps and with parliament over their abject failure to behave in a manner that is responsible. Bercow's shouting and bullying last night would see him in all kinds of trouble were he a CEO and yet people on here defend him
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
In business, if 21 employees decamped to your competitor with your trade secrets, intent on taking your customers away after you had landed your biggest ever order - and had then set about doing that, despite previous assurances they would not - how willing would you have been to have them back?
a) not very willing?
b) no way are they ever coming back?
c) where's my shotgun?
The 21 knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences of their actions. If Boris has them back, he can have my membership too.
The 21 employees didn’t decamp, they were laid off after the company claimed their department was being closed. As soon as they left HR began hiring replacements the CEO approved of.
They had already started working for the opposition before they were kicked out. I hope every one of them is out of Parliament at the next election.
That's just the sort of healing attitude the country needs.
"Most seats" and "majority" are not the same thing.
I do think Cons are on for most seats, but not to be in government. They have no allies, and Johnson has no political capital to spend with other parties. He cannot be trusted, and on the policy of No Deal no other party will accept the position.
"Cons are on for most seats" is easy to call because of Scotland. The main left of center party there is the SNP. If you were to compare Con vs Lab+SNP the call is much closer.
Theyd already adequately demonstrated and argued how much they disagreed with what was happening. The theatrics was to get more news and make themselves feel better.
Indeed - they wanted the footage for their smug virtue signalling tweets.
Well I happen to not be in favour of this prorogation either, so I'm with them on that, but unnecessary theatrics- this was big big news for weeks - annoy me, because its about the person not the issue.
Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.
Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
c.
You've been making some of the best comments and the occasional header of late - much appreciated.
While I do not always agree, Cyclefree is a class act on this forum
Speaking as an outsider, the thread headers that are a cut above are almost universally written by Alistair Meeks, even though he and I have little overlap in our politics. He could launch a subscription only blog and I’d subscribe. I hesitate to disparage anyone for putting their head above the trench line so I’ll leave the specifics there, save to say there are some quite tedious and repetitive whines in the thread headers these days.
Among the posters, SeanT was the one that kept me coming here (lurking) for a decade, even if he was quite clearly bonkers. It was a relief to see his mantle was so smoothly picked up by Lord George Gordon.
Oh FFS. Evidence of criminal conduct by senior government officials should just be buried?
Criminal conduct? There may well have been some pretty base political calculations leading to the decision to prorogate but criminal? I don't think so.
As with Nixon and watergate the issue isn’t the initial crime (progoration) that is the problem here, it’s the attempted coverup, obvious missing paperwork and the fact Cummings is refusing to do something he insisted others did
The laws of unintended consequences could get a few run-outs off the back of Yesterday in Parliament:
1. The Remain Alliance banking on an extension but forcing BJ to get a deal through.
2. Journalists (among others) salivating at getting a look* at Nikki da Costa’s WhatsApp, forgetting they may be the next target of a bill to see private correspondence (*not that they will).
3. Labour MPs thinking that singing the Red Flag in the Commons is a good look to the 80pc of the population not currently planning to vote for them.
For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.
We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.
I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
I mean, he carelessly lost his majority by failing to convince his colleagues to vote his way. Politics, the art of counting. The ability to create coalitions of politicians to pass policy is the mark of a good politician. Without a natural majority in the House, that means trying to coax opposition MPs into a position Johnson wants, either with carrot or stick.
Johnson, like May, failed to do that (mostly because they both failed to coax their entire party to support it). That is the sign of a bad politician. Trust is the capital of politics, and Johnson seems to be personally bankrupt.
Though Yougov and Opinium still predict a Tory majority I would argue it actually helps Boris for it to look like it will be another hung parliament in the polls with maybe Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and perhaps even the LDs too.
After all that was what it looked like in 2015 before Cameron won a majority to stop Ed Miliband winning propped up by the SNP, in 2017 though when all pollsters bar Survation suggested a Tory majority May lost her majority as swing voters voted for the opposition parties to clip her wings
With all the talk of electoral prospects, i’m still not really sure of the scenario where we actually get an election. Now that Corbyn has abandoned his policy of pursuing one come what may, and adopted a position of “it depends on the polls”. And whatever the hypothetical polling about elections post Oct 31st say at the moment I have serious doubts that they message they suggest will sustain. Will Labour then find another excuse to oppose one?
If there is no election until January how will the government pass a budget later in the autumn?
Surely the Queen's Speech will fail and the government must fall at that point. Corbyn will be called to form an administration - will he fail ? presumably but not certainly. Then a GE.
Oh FFS. Evidence of criminal conduct by senior government officials should just be buried?
Criminal conduct? There may well have been some pretty base political calculations leading to the decision to prorogate but criminal? I don't think so.
As with Nixon and watergate the issue isn’t the initial crime (progoration) that is the problem here, it’s the attempted coverup, obvious missing paperwork and the fact Cummings is refusing to do something he insisted others did
Er but Watergate actually was a crime! Even the courts have ruled that Prorogation is a matter if “high politics”.
Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
There seems to be a growing belief among our ruling class that conducting public business over private systems exempts them from scrutiny.
Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
Modern commerce is now conducted over WhatsApp and WeChat. Email is just the means that your utility company bills you by. It’s quite ordinary for the finer details of $1bn business deals to be agreed over one of these two platforms (depending upon your time zone of operation). It stands to reason that politics is following the same trend.
This is not great news for the monitors of insider trading or guardians of political transparency, given the systems are secure end-to-end and the triviality of deleting all record of a conversation if both parties are willing. Oh well, I’m sure you’ll all get over it and find something else to get outraged by before breakfast.
The outrage isn't mine - it's emanating from those who appear to claim that government business conducted over such systems is exempt from scrutiny because it's "private". They are wrong.
Whether or not messages have been deleted is another matter entirely.
Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
There seems to be a growing belief among our ruling class that conducting public business over private systems exempts them from scrutiny.
Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
But Sonia Khan's phone was OK to go through by Dominic Cummings. Even journalists hardly murmured.
"Most seats" and "majority" are not the same thing.
I do think Cons are on for most seats, but not to be in government. They have no allies, and Johnson has no political capital to spend with other parties. He cannot be trusted, and on the policy of No Deal no other party will accept the position.
"Cons are on for most seats" is easy to call because of Scotland. The main left of center party there is the SNP. If you were to compare Con vs Lab+SNP the call is much closer.
Cons will have more than Lab+SNP, maybe not Lab+SNP+LD though
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
I would put most MPs in the category of 'ordinary decent people' rather than venal. Corbyn, Bercow and Grieve have all simply done their job - holding the government to account, allowing the Commons to have its say as the instrument of the British people, and working cross-party to prevent the government forcing a no deal Brexit on us, respectively. A venal parliament would be one where MPs simply turn up and collect their salary and allow the government to trash our country unopposed.
All the mps trashed our Country last night in a display of abject irresponsibility
No they didnt.
They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.
They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.
It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.
It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.
It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
You are totally out of touch with the public.
They are furious over last nights performance
Nope, I think it is the Tories that are out of touch with the public.
A PM who thinks himself above the law, and not willing to be scrutinised is a fundamental danger to British Democracy. "They call him Britain Trump"
It is manifestly absurd for a government to claim simultaneously to be renegotiating the Withdrawal agreement, and to want to fight an election campaign.
Let's see how Britain feels over the next five weeks suspension of our democratic body. I do not see a rise in Johnson's polling, indeed I think the Tories will be on about 20% by the time of the Queens speech.
The Tories were polling 19% under May post extension, they will only be back to 20% if the Brexit Party rise again and Boris extends himself
The only comments I've heard around here about Brexit are in line with the following …
(1) Why are we asking for another extension? Nothing is going to happen in that time. The EU may well grant it, but they have no reason to move anymore.
My view? Its a continuation of the last three years of the politicians playing silly buggers in order to delay and finally eliminate a chance of any Brexit.
I do have a genuine question. We've heard a lot from some Remainers who blame the Brexit enthusiasts for not tying to appease the 48% of the voters who voted for the EU. Had the result gone 52 - 48 in favour of staying, what would the government and the majority Remainers in the HoC done to appease the 48% of dissident Leavers?
Would they have announced a mini-leave? Perhaps withdrawn from some obligations? We know the answer to that. Why then are they not called out for their clear and obvious hypocrisy. Perhaps because their arrogance blinds them?
I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country. But we'll still be ruled by politicians who think they know better and the voters are barely the means to an end.
I think our semi-detached status in the EU (opt-outs, no Euro, no Schengen) was in recognition of the fact that a section of the country was never reconciled to being a member. That would have continued had we voted to remain. In but as far out as possible.
A close leave vote should have resulted in out but as close as possible. Instead there have always been those with an agenda to cut ties completely and hitch up to the USA and there was no deal that they would ever accept. Hence the impasse.
I find it ironic when you talk of "poshos" having their way when the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg are the ones heading up your side. Some of you leavers seem to have a massive chip on your shoulder. The key reason we are where we are is that there was no agreement on how to execute Brexit before the referendum and there has been none since. Of course it is far more satisfying to blame it all on "posho" remainers.
Though Yougov and Opinium still predict a Tory majority I would argue it actually helps Boris for it to look like it will be another hung parliament in the polls with maybe Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and perhaps even the LDs too.
After all that was what it looked like in 2015 before Cameron won a majority to stop Ed Miliband winning propped up by the SNP, in 2017 though when all pollsters bar Survation suggested a Tory majority May lost her majority as swing voters voted for the opposition parties to clip her wings
Polls leading up to the 2017 election had the LDs on 8-10% which was accurate. Now the polls have the LDs between 17 and 21% . It is much harder for either Lab or Con to get a surprise overall majority when the third party in England is around 20%
For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.
We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.
I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
I mean, he carelessly lost his majority by failing to convince his colleagues to vote his way. Politics, the art of counting. The ability to create coalitions of politicians to pass policy is the mark of a good politician. Without a natural majority in the House, that means trying to coax opposition MPs into a position Johnson wants, either with carrot or stick.
Johnson, like May, failed to do that (mostly because they both failed to coax their entire party to support it). That is the sign of a bad politician. Trust is the capital of politics, and Johnson seems to be personally bankrupt.
Show me a policy short of revoking Article 50 that Grieve would ever have supported.
Trying to build a concensus with people like him would be a fools errand. The truth is, Boris inherited a horrendously fractured party from May. May had no power to enforce her will after she lost her majority. Boris is at least looking to build a party that will have an internal coherence after the next election, whether in power or not.
The Conservative Party's problems stem from over-indulging a handful of self-important grandees. Keeping them in the tent has been a grave mistake - one which Boris has remedied.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
Perfect.
Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
See below. I am not climbing aboard this particular trip to the stoning ground.
Though Yougov and Opinium still predict a Tory majority I would argue it actually helps Boris for it to look like it will be another hung parliament in the polls with maybe Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and perhaps even the LDs too.
After all that was what it looked like in 2015 before Cameron won a majority to stop Ed Miliband winning propped up by the SNP, in 2017 though when all pollsters bar Survation suggested a Tory majority May lost her majority as swing voters voted for the opposition parties to clip her wings
Polls leading up to the 2017 election had the LDs on 8-10% which was accurate. Now the polls have the LDs between 17 and 21% . It is much harder for either Lab or Con to get a surprise overall majority when the third party in England is around 20%
It isn't if the Tories win enough Labour Leave seats with a big enough lead over Corbyn Labour as Yougov and Opinium are predicting them too even if not other pollsters to make up for any losses to the LDs and SNP
Oh FFS. Evidence of criminal conduct by senior government officials should just be buried?
Criminal conduct? There may well have been some pretty base political calculations leading to the decision to prorogate but criminal? I don't think so.
As with Nixon and watergate the issue isn’t the initial crime (progoration) that is the problem here, it’s the attempted coverup, obvious missing paperwork and the fact Cummings is refusing to do something he insisted others did
Sorry, but you just look an idiot in comparing the illegal Waterate with the entirely legal prorogation.
One striking feature of the comments this morning is how very poster - Leave or Remain - seems to think public opinion is on their side. Presumably a symptom of the echo chamber response.
Most of us think everyone basically either agrees with us, or would do if they had the relevant facts explained to them clearly enough.
Excellent summary of the human condition (or certainly those of us on here)
Though Yougov and Opinium still predict a Tory majority I would argue it actually helps Boris for it to look like it will be another hung parliament in the polls with maybe Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and perhaps even the LDs too.
After all that was what it looked like in 2015 before Cameron won a majority to stop Ed Miliband winning propped up by the SNP, in 2017 though when all pollsters bar Survation suggested a Tory majority May lost her majority as swing voters voted for the opposition parties to clip her wings
Polls leading up to the 2017 election had the LDs on 8-10% which was accurate. Now the polls have the LDs between 17 and 21% . It is much harder for either Lab or Con to get a surprise overall majority when the third party in England is around 20%
It isn't if the Tories win enough Labour Leave seats with a big enough lead over Corbyn Labour as Yougov and Opinium are predicting them too even if not other pollsters to make up for any losses to the LDs and SNP
A reasonably efficient distribution could easily leave enough seats for a (fairly strong) Lab/LD/SNP coalition.. which would be something of a result for the middle-grounders who like neither BJ's English Nationalist Party or JC's Islington Soviet. Shifting Corbyn out of the leader's seat (or neutering him) would be the "fun" bit.
Holding governments to account is fundamental to liberal democracy. The one where governments get to do as they please is called dictatorship. Please keep up.
They are not holding them to account. They are holding the whole country in contempt
They cant because they have been prorogued!
They had the opportunity for months and have done nothing. We are better off without the lot of them. They should sell Westminster to Madam Tussauds and fill it with waxwork dummies. They couldn't do a worse job than this lot.
Though Yougov and Opinium still predict a Tory majority I would argue it actually helps Boris for it to look like it will be another hung parliament in the polls with maybe Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and perhaps even the LDs too.
After all that was what it looked like in 2015 before Cameron won a majority to stop Ed Miliband winning propped up by the SNP, in 2017 though when all pollsters bar Survation suggested a Tory majority May lost her majority as swing voters voted for the opposition parties to clip her wings
Polls leading up to the 2017 election had the LDs on 8-10% which was accurate. Now the polls have the LDs between 17 and 21% . It is much harder for either Lab or Con to get a surprise overall majority when the third party in England is around 20%
It isn't if the Tories win enough Labour Leave seats with a big enough lead over Corbyn Labour as Yougov and Opinium are predicting them too even if not other pollsters to make up for any losses to the LDs and SNP
Well it's a strategy. I don't know the north of England at all well so it may be that both Brexit and the Tories are a lot more popular up there than I think they should be. But I do see people who I'd never thought would ever switch away from the Tories not so much drifting away from them as dropping all their possessions and running in the opposite direction. Doesn't the South East matter?
With all the talk of electoral prospects, i’m still not really sure of the scenario where we actually get an election. Now that Corbyn has abandoned his policy of pursuing one come what may, and adopted a position of “it depends on the polls”. And whatever the hypothetical polling about elections post Oct 31st say at the moment I have serious doubts that they message they suggest will sustain. Will Labour then find another excuse to oppose one?
I doubt they'll just stall with nothing happening come October/November. They'll want to hold on until it's clear that Boris's "renegotiation" cupboard is bare then either fight an election or VONC and support a new government.
In many countries the vote is becoming less Bipartisan and more parties are getting more MPs. Even in countries which have traditionally had coalitions, the recent coalitions have had to be more diverse and required carefully collated coalition agreements.
The move away from two parties has also been a part of UK voters for many year, but the UK has a voting system which rewards the two main parties in terms of MPs and often delivers an absolute Majority. Since 2010 though, we are now in the situation where no-overall-majority is more likely than an overall majority, and the parties need to realise this. Succesfull politicians of today need to be prepared to work together and be prepared to build coalitions.
Yes- and this has revealed huge problems with a constitutional settlements that assumes hung parliaments are wholly exceptional rather than the norm.
The UK used to be able to cope with hung parliaments. i.e. in the interwar years and in 1974.
What has changed to destroy that previously accepted constitutional settlement?: 1. The FTPA removed from government the ability to bring those parliaments to an end in circumstances when it could not get key legislation through. 2. The FTPA also compromised the ability of a weak government to get key legislation through, as with votes of confidence no longer being linked to legislation, party discipline has been greatly weakened. 3. Bercow junked all precedent so that control of the legislative agenda was taken out of the hands of government, effectively giving opposition parties a positive incentive to continue parliamentary sessions in circumstances when the government had lost the ability to govern.
Even the revolving post war Italian governments look strong by comparison with the mess now created.
One striking feature of the comments this morning is how very poster - Leave or Remain - seems to think public opinion is on their side. Presumably a symptom of the echo chamber response.
Well, in the Civil War, both factions were sure God was on their side.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
Perfect.
Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
See below. I am not climbing aboard this particular trip to the stoning ground.
Nor me.
Of course not. You are as partisan and divorced from public opinion as the politicians.
For those who were suggesting that Mr Johnson could by ammendment organise a vote for GE that only required a normal majority: he was only able to get 293 votes for a GE and that is including the DUP. So even if this was a realistic process he still would not have gained enough votes.
We simply don't have a government. I find it bewildering that people constantly repeat that Boris is the first PM to lose his first 5 votes as if it was indicative of some incompetence or carelessness on his part. He is in reality about 30 short of a majority and has been since he got the keys to Number 10.
I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
I mean, he carelessly lost his majority by failing to convince his colleagues to vote his way. Politics, the art of counting. The ability to create coalitions of politicians to pass policy is the mark of a good politician. Without a natural majority in the House, that means trying to coax opposition MPs into a position Johnson wants, either with carrot or stick.
Johnson, like May, failed to do that (mostly because they both failed to coax their entire party to support it). That is the sign of a bad politician. Trust is the capital of politics, and Johnson seems to be personally bankrupt.
Show me a policy short of revoking Article 50 that Grieve would ever have supported.
Trying to build a concensus with people like him would be a fools errand. The truth is, Boris inherited a horrendously fractured party from May. May had no power to enforce her will after she lost her majority. Boris is at least looking to build a party that will have an internal coherence after the next election, whether in power or not.
The Conservative Party's problems stem from over-indulging a handful of self-important grandees. Keeping them in the tent has been a grave mistake - one which Boris has remedied.
A paragraph which could (and may yet be again) flung with slight amendments at Andrew Bridgen and Steve Baker if Boris decides a tweaked WA is the way forward.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
Perfect.
Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
I will defend MPs going about their business over rule by the Prime Minister's advisor.
Every time.
The utterly grotesque thing is this advisor shutting down Parliament by diktat during the worst political crisis since the Second World War because he thinks it's off message and inconvenient.
Parliament won a small and messy, but important, victory against despotism last week. I congratulate them for it.
Mr. Recidivist, I think back to the 2015 result. UKIP racked up a lot of strong second places in the north of England, and that was pre-referendum.
It's possible, depending how the cards fall, that TBP could do likewise or even better, potentially taking seats or letting Conservative or Lib Dem candidates in through the middle at seats they look unlikely to win.
Of course, in Conservative-held seats and targets, TBP could take away crucial votes for the blues.
The addition of the Leave/Remain spectrum to the party political axis makes the next election even more complicated to try and call. I think the SNP and Lib Dems should do well, but otherwise it's tricky.
Oh God, Nick Robinson saying that Grieve’s motion is asking for the “private” messages of government officials.
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
There seems to be a growing belief among our ruling class that conducting public business over private systems exempts them from scrutiny.
Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
There seems to be a belief amongst some of them that they should be exempt from scrutiny at all.
Oh FFS. Evidence of criminal conduct by senior government officials should just be buried?
Criminal conduct? There may well have been some pretty base political calculations leading to the decision to prorogate but criminal? I don't think so.
As with Nixon and watergate the issue isn’t the initial crime (progoration) that is the problem here, it’s the attempted coverup, obvious missing paperwork and the fact Cummings is refusing to do something he insisted others did
Sorry, but you just look an idiot in comparing the illegal Waterate with the entirely legal prorogation.
Save your synthetic outrage. Eek was saying it's the COVERUP that's the problem. It really is an obvious parallel without having to believe that prorogation is actually illegal.
Frightening thought: Boris's resignation honours list will include a peerage for Dominic Cummings.
Well, let's see the propagation emails etc first. It could be the Tower rather than the Lords.
Whatsapp messages are permanently deletable.
The government lawyers will already have seen them for the court cases last week.
c.
You've been making some of the best comments and the occasional header of late - much appreciated.
While I do not always agree, Cyclefree is a class act on this forum
Speaking as an outsider, the thread headers that are a cut above are almost universally written by Alistair Meeks, even though he and I have little overlap in our politics. He could launch a subscription only blog and I’d subscribe. I hesitate to disparage anyone for putting their head above the trench line so I’ll leave the specifics there, save to say there are some quite tedious and repetitive whines in the thread headers these days.
Among the posters, SeanT was the one that kept me coming here (lurking) for a decade, even if he was quite clearly bonkers. It was a relief to see his mantle was so smoothly picked up by Lord George Gordon.
Ah, well said - though I think all of the thread header writers do us proud tbf.
The other joy of PB is the range of poster's characters, views and approach. I profoundly disagree with many of them but what a cast we have.
Special mention for...
@HYUFD - Tory party apparatchik and poll* addict (*provided they match the party line) @Richard_Tyndall - forever struggling with those anger management techniques @Byronic - SeanT reincarnate @Big_G_NorthWales - always a gent, would so love to vote anything but Tory but just can't bring himself to do it @Sunil_Prasannan - train buff, film buff, comedy b... er, no sorry Sunil.
Apols to those and to the many others I enjoy - too many to mention.
Holding governments to account is fundamental to liberal democracy. The one where governments get to do as they please is called dictatorship. Please keep up.
They are not holding them to account. They are holding the whole country in contempt
They cant because they have been prorogued!
They had the opportunity for months and have done nothing. We are better off without the lot of them. They should sell Westminster to Madam Tussauds and fill it with waxwork dummies. They couldn't do a worse job than this lot.
You'd be in with a shout of junior minister in that scenario.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
Perfect.
Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
See below. I am not climbing aboard this particular trip to the stoning ground.
Nor me.
Of course not. You are as partisan and divorced from public opinion as the politicians.
It is only you, Richard, who has the searing insight into public opinion?
On topic good thread. I have often said that it perplexes me when I hear "the betting markets are saying" about some political event as though they impart some great wisdom.
It is usually an event that we here are fighting like cats in a sack and have no idea about and if I may say we are quite an informed group so how on earth would "the betting markets" know better?
And often said by people who don't understand probabilities. Nobody produces a list of horse races or football matches where the odds-on favorite didn't win, and says "the betting markets are all wrong". Because long shots come in every day.
The predictions turn out to be quite good. And the political predictions are heavily based on polling - maybe this suggests when Betfair and opinion polls seem to be pointing in opposite directions, then tend to believe the polls.
If I'm reading the politics chart correctly, they've actually tended to overestimate outsiders' chances a little bit, and underestimate the favorites'.
I did not watch last night as I could not listen to these venal mps tearing bits out of each other as ordinary decent people despair
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
As Cromwell said in 1653:
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
Perfect.
Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
See below. I am not climbing aboard this particular trip to the stoning ground.
Nor me.
Of course not. You are as partisan and divorced from public opinion as the politicians.
Whereas you are unbiased and have your finger on the pulse?
Comments
So it would require a conscious act by Parliament to stop it via a new bill. They're not very good at that.
A PM who thinks himself above the law, and not willing to be scrutinised is a fundamental danger to British Democracy. "They call him Britain Trump"
It is manifestly absurd for a government to claim simultaneously to be renegotiating the Withdrawal agreement, and to want to fight an election campaign.
Let's see how Britain feels over the next five weeks suspension of our democratic body. I do not see a rise in Johnson's polling, indeed I think the Tories will be on about 20% by the time of the Queens speech.
Is likely as divided on this as on Brexit.
Provided Parliament hasn’t been dissolved for an early GE most of the 21 Conservative MPs have been suspended (and solely care about) Brexit, so they’d come back.
That gets you back up to around 310 MPs.
To get the extra 12+ votes there are sides deals to be cut with independents, DUP, TiG and the Liberal Democrats.
Sure, the SNP and Labour will certainly vote against it but in a FTPA world a budget has to pass, so pass it will, as amended and as various palms are greased.
I would hope that by late October a deal is agreed or a goverrnment under a neutral leader takes over and deals with brexit staying in power as long as is needed
If we are forced into a second referendum and Remain wins 52 - 48, what concessions would you plan to give to the 48%?
In many countries the vote is becoming less Bipartisan and more parties are getting more MPs. Even in countries which have traditionally had coalitions, the recent coalitions have had to be more diverse and required carefully collated coalition agreements.
The move away from two parties has also been a part of UK voters for many year, but the UK has a voting system which rewards the two main parties in terms of MPs and often delivers an absolute Majority. Since 2010 though, we are now in the situation where no-overall-majority is more likely than an overall majority, and the parties need to realise this. Succesfull politicians of today need to be prepared to work together and be prepared to build coalitions.
Though most of us don’t expect to be expelled by our employers for considering compromise.
Compromise - as in May's deal - is now a dirty word, rather than the oil that keeps the country running.
And we are all to blame.
Ah, my coat...
See you this evening.
This is not great news for the monitors of insider trading or guardians of political transparency, given the systems are secure end-to-end and the triviality of deleting all record of a conversation if both parties are willing. Oh well, I’m sure you’ll all get over it and find something else to get outraged by before breakfast.
a) not very willing?
b) no way are they ever coming back?
c) where's my shotgun?
The 21 knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences of their actions. If Boris has them back, he can have my membership too.
https://twitter.com/nataliesedacca/status/1171307167921639425?s=20
I do think Cons are on for most seats, but not to be in government. They have no allies, and Johnson has no political capital to spend with other parties. He cannot be trusted, and on the policy of No Deal no other party will accept the position.
To use your analogy, they closed their own department. By being complete and utter c****.
For everyone else, however, coalition building is very much the order of the day. It looks very difficult for Labour to win an outright majority without Scotland. It would need them to hold on to a decent amount of the 2017 vote while seeing the Tory vote split. Possible, but much harder in my opinion.
That's not to say that I think that the current Tory strategy will work. But I'd say that we are very much in a situation where it's the Tories vs everyone else.
* Yes, I know it's not that simple.
Among the posters, SeanT was the one that kept me coming here (lurking) for a decade, even if he was quite clearly bonkers. It was a relief to see his mantle was so smoothly picked up by Lord George Gordon.
1. The Remain Alliance banking on an extension but forcing BJ to get a deal through.
2. Journalists (among others) salivating at getting a look* at Nikki da Costa’s WhatsApp, forgetting they may be the next target of a bill to see private correspondence (*not that they will).
3. Labour MPs thinking that singing the Red Flag in the Commons is a good look to the 80pc of the population not currently planning to vote for them.
Johnson, like May, failed to do that (mostly because they both failed to coax their entire party to support it). That is the sign of a bad politician. Trust is the capital of politics, and Johnson seems to be personally bankrupt.
After all that was what it looked like in 2015 before Cameron won a majority to stop Ed Miliband winning propped up by the SNP, in 2017 though when all pollsters bar Survation suggested a Tory majority May lost her majority as swing voters voted for the opposition parties to clip her wings
Whether or not messages have been deleted is another matter entirely.
A close leave vote should have resulted in out but as close as possible. Instead there have always been those with an agenda to cut ties completely and hitch up to the USA and there was no deal that they would ever accept. Hence the impasse.
I find it ironic when you talk of "poshos" having their way when the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg are the ones heading up your side. Some of you leavers seem to have a massive chip on your shoulder. The key reason we are where we are is that there was no agreement on how to execute Brexit before the referendum and there has been none since. Of course it is far more satisfying to blame it all on "posho" remainers.
Trying to build a concensus with people like him would be a fools errand. The truth is, Boris inherited a horrendously fractured party from May. May had no power to enforce her will after she lost her majority. Boris is at least looking to build a party that will have an internal coherence after the next election, whether in power or not.
The Conservative Party's problems stem from over-indulging a handful of self-important grandees. Keeping them in the tent has been a grave mistake - one which Boris has remedied.
Matt shows why hes our best politcal cartoonist
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/02/matt-cartoons-september-2019/
What has changed to destroy that previously accepted constitutional settlement?:
1. The FTPA removed from government the ability to bring those parliaments to an end in circumstances when it could not get key legislation through.
2. The FTPA also compromised the ability of a weak government to get key legislation through, as with votes of confidence no longer being linked to legislation, party discipline has been greatly weakened.
3. Bercow junked all precedent so that control of the legislative agenda was taken out of the hands of government, effectively giving opposition parties a positive incentive to continue parliamentary sessions in circumstances when the government had lost the ability to govern.
Even the revolving post war Italian governments look strong by comparison with the mess now created.
Must try harder.
Every time.
The utterly grotesque thing is this advisor shutting down Parliament by diktat during the worst political crisis since the Second World War because he thinks it's off message and inconvenient.
Parliament won a small and messy, but important, victory against despotism last week. I congratulate them for it.
It's possible, depending how the cards fall, that TBP could do likewise or even better, potentially taking seats or letting Conservative or Lib Dem candidates in through the middle at seats they look unlikely to win.
Of course, in Conservative-held seats and targets, TBP could take away crucial votes for the blues.
The addition of the Leave/Remain spectrum to the party political axis makes the next election even more complicated to try and call. I think the SNP and Lib Dems should do well, but otherwise it's tricky.
The other joy of PB is the range of poster's characters, views and approach. I profoundly disagree with many of them but what a cast we have.
Special mention for...
@HYUFD - Tory party apparatchik and poll* addict (*provided they match the party line)
@Richard_Tyndall - forever struggling with those anger management techniques
@Byronic - SeanT reincarnate
@Big_G_NorthWales - always a gent, would so love to vote anything but Tory but just can't bring himself to do it
@Sunil_Prasannan - train buff, film buff, comedy b... er, no sorry Sunil.
Apols to those and to the many others I enjoy - too many to mention.
Thanks all!
Maybe there's too few liquid political betting markets to do much good analysis on whether 4-1 shots (like Trump was the night before) are coming in "too" often, but here's 538 on how good their own political and sporting probability predictions have been:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-we-say-70-percent-it-really-means-70-percent/
The predictions turn out to be quite good. And the political predictions are heavily based on polling - maybe this suggests when Betfair and opinion polls seem to be pointing in opposite directions, then tend to believe the polls.
If I'm reading the politics chart correctly, they've actually tended to overestimate outsiders' chances a little bit, and underestimate the favorites'.