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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    kamski said:


    I don't know about worldwide, but on the German radio this morning (popular station mostly playing music but has some news and other features):
    Short discussion about the latest news about the UK parliament. Reporter starts by saying "Brexit, yes ok, I know, wake me up when it's over" but goes onto say something like "this has gone beyond Brexit, this is about parliament defending democracy in the place where modern democracy was founded". Suspension of parliament being portrayed as anti-democratic, which seems to be how most Germans I know see things. I would say most people here see Johnson as a kind of Trump figure who is trashing the UK's reputation.

    The Reichstag parliaments of the Weimar Republic compromised the ability of German governments to function, and in doing so discredited the reputation of those parliaments and thus democracy itself, creating the opportunity for those who wanted to put an end to the chaos.
    It did not help that the president could step in and shut down parliament when he thought it appropriate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Mr. kinabalu, it imposes a customs barrier within the national territory of the United Kingdom. It's unacceptable.

    And that's before we get to the Northern Irish having regulations and laws imposed upon them without any democratic representation. Or the fact that trade policy is not devolved.

    One can only think you're a chain-yanker.

    Can't we organise a reunification referendum in N Ireland with a 52-48 majority for joining the Republic. That would sort it.
    And before anyone says 'but what about County Antrim', it's the whole country that matters. That's what they said in another context!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Tactically the Tories should run on condemnation of last night's antics and present as the grown ups in the room, especially with parliament out for the count. It's a chance for them to seize back the narrative a bit with no looming votes to lose.
    No comment on the moral validity of such is intended, merely observing the correct political move.

    Risky move. The loaded question can be lobbed back: "so you think it's better to run the country without a parliament?"
    Better to run without this particular parliament... that is the case for the GE
    The people chose that parliament. If the government doesn't like it, tough. Governments get their mandate from parliament, not the other way around.
    People voted on the basis of the manifestos and public statements of the candidates. In terms of mandate, votes were being cast on that basis - and the two largest parties both were explicit about delivering Brexit. Too many MPs have ignored that part of their 'mandate'

    There are many ways of viewing things like mandates - but this Parliament is no longer fit for purpose. Something needs resetting. A GE is absolutely necessary
    They were also elected on the basis of not leaving without a deal.
    But in any case, it is NOT up to the government to decide whether MPs are honouring their manifestos. That would be gross executive overreach, which seems to be the direction of travel of this government.
    FWIW I also want an election. But it's only parliament that gets to decide whether it's fit for purpose. Parliament is sovereign, and that's how it must remain.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TOPPING said:

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
    The greens aren't close to displacing anyone except that labour person in Bristol. And nor will they be.
  • TOPPING said:

    Two things fans of “Singapore on Thames” rarely mention (if they’re aware of them, which may be charitable):

    The “Central Provident Fund”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Provident_Fund (which we started)

    And the Housing and Development Board: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Development_Board (82% live in public housing)

    I find that fans of a Singapore model are usually from the same group as those who say just put a border up in NI.

    90% of them have never been to either place.
    Or if they have all they’ve seen is Changi, the road to the CBD and their 5 star hotel. Take the MRT out to the stixs- it’s an eye opener- block upon block - each numbered - of concrete flats.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,193
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:
    The UK could never be Singapore, (GDP/capita $65,000) which is a city state, but London could. Worth pointing out that Malaysia, of which Singapore was once a part, has a GDP/capita of $11,000. If that seems a fanciful comparison, consider that west inner London has a GDP/capita almost 10 times as high as West Wales and the Valleys - and that is with the existing level of redistribution from richer to poorer regions.
    Why on earth would the UK want to become Singapore? Why don't we just become Luxembourg - much richer than Singapore, much more democratic (12th vs 66th, UK is 14th, out of 167 countries), culturally closer, happier. And we wouldn't have to bother with Brexit.
    Population around 1% of ours.

    And they make their living by being a tax haven within the EU...
    Tax avoidance drives nearly 40% of global FDI
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Tax-avoidance-drives-nearly-40-of-global-FDI-report

    I don't think either of those things are options for us.
    Yes I was being facetious. "Becoming Singapore" about as realistic as "becoming Luxembourg"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Tactically the Tories should run on condemnation of last night's antics and present as the grown ups in the room, especially with parliament out for the count. It's a chance for them to seize back the narrative a bit with no looming votes to lose.
    No comment on the moral validity of such is intended, merely observing the correct political move.

    Risky move. The loaded question can be lobbed back: "so you think it's better to run the country without a parliament?"
    Better to run without this particular parliament... that is the case for the GE
    The people chose that parliament. If the government doesn't like it, tough. Governments get their mandate from parliament, not the other way around.
    People voted on the basis of the manifestos and public statements of the candidates. In terms of mandate, votes were being cast on that basis - and the two largest parties both were explicit about delivering Brexit. Too many MPs have ignored that part of their 'mandate'

    There are many ways of viewing things like mandates - but this Parliament is no longer fit for purpose. Something needs resetting. A GE is absolutely necessary
    I think when neither sides achieve a majority then the manifestos become moot.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If I decided to stand in Norwich South (being a wildly popular and awesome dude) and Ben Bradshaw tweeted me to 'think again' I might consider a very rude rebuff. I hope Molly Cato does the same
  • Miss Vance, that could equally mean ossification of an inflexible political system.
  • tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    I wonder if someone like David Lidington would work
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited September 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    Sorry, I was seeing if I could get anyone to bite.

    Hoyle would be a great appointment. It won't be him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,388
    edited September 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    Edward Leigh, who is a traditionalist and has vowed to bring back wigs.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    John Bercow.
  • tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    I wonder if someone like David Lidington would work
    He wouldn’t be bad.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Noo said:

    That's an important point. No scenario will see everybody happy, not by a long way. The DUP should not be regarded as having a veto, especially since the problems being addressed with the backstop are partially of their own making.

    Indeed. In fact one of the great potential prizes of a GE is the DUP to lose their vastly disproportionate influence. Of course the blame for this Brexit mess can be sprayed around (and fairly) with gay abandon - but they are certainly in my top 3.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    TOPPING said:

    eristdoof said:

    TOPPING said:

    eristdoof said:

    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic good thread. I have often said that it perplexes me when I hear "the betting markets are saying" about some political event as though they impart some great wisdom.

    It is usually an event that we here are fighting like cats in a sack and have no idea about and if I may say we are quite an informed group so how on earth would "the betting markets" know better?

    And often said by people who don't understand probabilities. Nobody produces a list of horse races or football matches where the odds-on favorite didn't win, and says "the betting markets are all wrong". Because long shots come in every day.

    Maybe there's too few liquid political betting markets to do much good analysis on whether 4-1 shots (like Trump was the night before) are coming in "too" often, but here's 538 on how good their own political and sporting probability predictions have been:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-we-say-70-percent-it-really-means-70-percent/

    The predictions turn out to be quite good. And the political predictions are heavily based on polling - maybe this suggests when Betfair and opinion polls seem to be pointing in opposite directions, then tend to believe the polls.

    If I'm reading the politics chart correctly, they've actually tended to overestimate outsiders' chances a little bit, and underestimate the favorites'.

    Well said Kamski!
    Since Nov 2016 I have been standing up for five thirty eight's good prediction.
    A 30% chance means Trump needed to roll a five or six, and he rolled a five.

    One of the things that brought me to this website is that most contributors and commentators understand the difference between odds/probabilities and predicting a winner.
    Like when it's raining and BBC weather says a 5% chance of rain.
    No not at all like that. I'll leave you to figure out what the difference in the two types of probailities are.
    Are you misunderstanding me? Or me you? I am saying we shouldn't be surprised when it is raining and the prediction was that there was a 5% chance of rain. Because that means once in every 20 times under such conditions it would be raining and we are in one of those times.
    Sorry, I misunderstood you. I thought you were complaining that "it is raining" where you, are makes it a 100% chance of rain, which I hear a lot.

    "probability of rain" is informative but once you starts to question what this "probability" actually means the less trust you put in it.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    TOPPING said:

    Two things fans of “Singapore on Thames” rarely mention (if they’re aware of them, which may be charitable):

    The “Central Provident Fund”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Provident_Fund (which we started)

    And the Housing and Development Board: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Development_Board (82% live in public housing)

    I find that fans of a Singapore model are usually from the same group as those who say just put a border up in NI.

    90% of them have never been to either place.
    Or if they have all they’ve seen is Changi, the road to the CBD and their 5 star hotel. Take the MRT out to the stixs- it’s an eye opener- block upon block - each numbered - of concrete flats.
    I will be in Singapore in 3 weeks. Sadly, I have never used the MRT. Even though our office in Jurong is very close to the MRT station.
    Singapore taxis are quite cheap and they are "there" before you know it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Those comres figures..... they suggest a sizable chunk of Brexit support is just 'get it done', not the only the purest Brexit will suffice mob. It's a question of what Boris cam present as a 'new' deal rather than just Mays deal in a snazzy hat
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    TOPPING said:

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
    The greens aren't close to displacing anyone except that labour person in Bristol. And nor will they be.
    I reckon the right unopposed Green Remain could give Patel a run for her money in Witham.

    Seriously.
  • tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    Edward Leigh, who is a traditionalist and has vowed to bring back wigs.
    He said he’d stand for it but I suspect will be seen as a bit of a dinosaur.
  • TOPPING said:

    Two things fans of “Singapore on Thames” rarely mention (if they’re aware of them, which may be charitable):

    The “Central Provident Fund”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Provident_Fund (which we started)

    And the Housing and Development Board: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Development_Board (82% live in public housing)

    I find that fans of a Singapore model are usually from the same group as those who say just put a border up in NI.

    90% of them have never been to either place.
    Or if they have all they’ve seen is Changi, the road to the CBD and their 5 star hotel. Take the MRT out to the stixs- it’s an eye opener- block upon block - each numbered - of concrete flats.
    I will be in Singapore in 3 weeks. Sadly, I have never used the MRT. Even though our office in Jurong is very close to the MRT station.
    Singapore taxis are quite cheap and they are "there" before you know it.
    The MRT is very easy to use - try a trip on it - you’ll see a side of Singapore visitors to the carefully manicured centre never see.....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Labour are an upper class party. They tell the pleb parties what to do.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TOPPING said:

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
    The greens aren't close to displacing anyone except that labour person in Bristol. And nor will they be.
    I reckon the right unopposed Green Remain could give Patel a run for her money in Witham.

    Seriously.
    Why?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited September 2019

    Can't we organise a reunification referendum in N Ireland with a 52-48 majority for joining the Republic. That would sort it.
    And before anyone says 'but what about County Antrim', it's the whole country that matters. That's what they said in another context!

    Perhaps 'alternative arrangements' will save the day - I'm not saying that's not possible - but if not it does appear that Irish re-unification might be a necessary but not sufficient condition of the UK being able to leave the EU Customs Union & Single Market in a non-chaotic manner.

    And the (sort of) reverse is probably true too. The UK leaving but in a chaotic manner (No Deal) might be a sufficient but not necessary condition of Irish re-unification.

    Put that together and you get, Brexit = NI out of UK.

    And then there's Scotland ...
  • tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    Boris Johnson. Great affection across the house and a good judgement and eye for detail. Oh, hang on....
  • Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/
  • kinabalu said:

    Noo said:

    That's an important point. No scenario will see everybody happy, not by a long way. The DUP should not be regarded as having a veto, especially since the problems being addressed with the backstop are partially of their own making.

    Indeed. In fact one of the great potential prizes of a GE is the DUP to lose their vastly disproportionate influence. Of course the blame for this Brexit mess can be sprayed around (and fairly) with gay abandon - but they are certainly in my top 3.
    The DUP has been open and straightforward throughout. I do not think we can blame them for sticking to principles which in any other context would seem reasonable. The DUP does not want the EU border down the Irish Sea, but I don't suppose we'd want it between England and Wales, or Yorkshire and Lancashire.

    The fault lies almost wholly within the Conservative Party, including its last three prime ministers and the ERG.
  • kamski said:

    Yes I was being facetious. "Becoming Singapore" about as realistic as "becoming Luxembourg"

    First get rid of Scotland, then Northern Ireland, then keep going until you're down to just Clacton, and there you have it, great setup for a tax haven.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    Perhaps Bradshaw would like to stand down in Exeter to let the Greens have a shot there....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Off topic but if anyone is into rap music - I highly recommend ‘AitcH2O’ by ‘Aitch’ great record by a young rapper from Manchester.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    TOPPING said:

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
    The greens aren't close to displacing anyone except that labour person in Bristol. And nor will they be.
    I reckon the right unopposed Green Remain could give Patel a run for her money in Witham.

    Seriously.
    Why?
    Main opposition on local council. Green's increasing anyway in popularity, Patel isn't generally liked, although she has her admirers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited September 2019

    The DUP has been open and straightforward throughout. I do not think we can blame them for sticking to principles which in any other context would seem reasonable. The DUP does not want the EU border down the Irish Sea, but I don't suppose we'd want it between England and Wales, or Yorkshire and Lancashire.

    The fault lies almost wholly within the Conservative Party, including its last three prime ministers and the ERG.

    Of course I agree that the Tory Party is the grand architect of this carbuncle on the side of the nation.

    But I think you go too easy on the DUP. They are a Brexit party, remember, and they seem to be using it to prise NI further from the Republic, GFA or no GFA.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
  • TOPPING said:

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
    The greens aren't close to displacing anyone except that labour person in Bristol. And nor will they be.
    I reckon the right unopposed Green Remain could give Patel a run for her money in Witham.

    Seriously.
    Really? Doesn't Lab+Lib+Green equal about 36% of the vote compared to Priti's 64%?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TOPPING said:

    Well, this is dispiriting:

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1171096788046155776

    Is Labour standing aside in any constituencies for the Greens (or the Lib Dems, or Plaid Cymru)? No. So why do they think they have a right to ask the Greens to do so?

    And I'm not sure instructing her to think again is his place. Asking or pleading, sure, but he instructs her like the greens are an adjunct of the labour party.
    Where are the Greens close to displacing a Cons candidate? Then they can talk.
    The greens aren't close to displacing anyone except that labour person in Bristol. And nor will they be.
    I reckon the right unopposed Green Remain could give Patel a run for her money in Witham.

    Seriously.
    Why?
    Main opposition on local council. Green's increasing anyway in popularity, Patel isn't generally liked, although she has her admirers.
    But that's against 64% in the last GE and a heavily leave area...... it's one of the safest seats in the country.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    I have also noted during election campaigns that some pollsters change their methodology to bring themselves closer to the rest of the herd. In that sense, they are becoming a "new" pollster.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Boris has added most of that 17 points. He may be a jibbering 10 year old, but that's seriously impressive. One of the biggest new leader poll bounces in modern times.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    edited September 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.
  • As Powell argues, however, the core disagreement cannot be overcome by leaps in technology or with technocratic fixes. The disagreement is over whose law should apply in whose territory—this is a more fundamental fissure, more political. It is about principle, not pragmatism.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/09/brexit-britain-ireland-good-friday/597739/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    HYUFD said:
    The UK could never be Singapore, (GDP/capita $65,000) which is a city state, but London could. Worth pointing out that Malaysia, of which Singapore was once a part, has a GDP/capita of $11,000. If that seems a fanciful comparison, consider that west inner London has a GDP/capita almost 10 times as high as West Wales and the Valleys - and that is with the existing level of redistribution from richer to poorer regions.
    LOL, redistribution, you really are joking. You mean robbery from the regions to London.
  • Byronic said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Boris has added most of that 17 points. He may be a jibbering 10 year old, but that's seriously impressive. One of the biggest new leader poll bounces in modern times.
    Though I suspect it's not so much a "Boris bounce" as a Theresa May re-flation. Quite how much Mrs Nothing-Has-Changed was personally responsible for depressing the Conservatives' polling, heaven only knows. Certainly she depressed me.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:

    Two things fans of “Singapore on Thames” rarely mention (if they’re aware of them, which may be charitable):

    The “Central Provident Fund”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Provident_Fund (which we started)

    And the Housing and Development Board: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Development_Board (82% live in public housing)

    I find that fans of a Singapore model are usually from the same group as those who say just put a border up in NI.

    90% of them have never been to either place.
    Or if they have all they’ve seen is Changi, the road to the CBD and their 5 star hotel. Take the MRT out to the stixs- it’s an eye opener- block upon block - each numbered - of concrete flats.
    I will be in Singapore in 3 weeks. Sadly, I have never used the MRT. Even though our office in Jurong is very close to the MRT station.
    Singapore taxis are quite cheap and they are "there" before you know it.
    The MRT is very easy to use - try a trip on it - you’ll see a side of Singapore visitors to the carefully manicured centre never see.....
    The MRT is fantastic, I took it from airport to downtown office last week, SG$2.50 and a slice of real life.

    I generally use public transport when I travel and eat street food. In contrast almost all my colleagues will use the company AMEX for cabs and eat in nice hotels. Don't see the point myself, everything is so generic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    John Mann just said on Sky he will not return to the HOC after last nights pantomine

    He retains his labour membership but will sit as a crossbencher in the Lords

    Has anyone actually offered him a peerage yet?
    Yes TM has granted him a peerage in her honours list
    Supping from another trough, what a despicable bunch of greedy grasping freeloading chancers.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The UK could never be Singapore, (GDP/capita $65,000) which is a city state, but London could. Worth pointing out that Malaysia, of which Singapore was once a part, has a GDP/capita of $11,000. If that seems a fanciful comparison, consider that west inner London has a GDP/capita almost 10 times as high as West Wales and the Valleys - and that is with the existing level of redistribution from richer to poorer regions.
    I tend to agree the Singapore model is only realistic for London and the South East commuter belt
    It could become independent of the rest of the UK, and join the EU! I'm all for it!
    We would put up a 20 foot border wall and charge the losers a fortune to ship their goods, see how much they are worth when they are not pillaging rest of country.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited September 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.
    Lets hope its Lindsay Hoyle. Not only does he seem even handed, the very thought of Harriet Harperson as Speaker makes one want to vomit.
  • Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Just wait until Bozo has to extend, and half the Tory vote jumps ship to Farage.
  • malcolmg said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The UK could never be Singapore, (GDP/capita $65,000) which is a city state, but London could. Worth pointing out that Malaysia, of which Singapore was once a part, has a GDP/capita of $11,000. If that seems a fanciful comparison, consider that west inner London has a GDP/capita almost 10 times as high as West Wales and the Valleys - and that is with the existing level of redistribution from richer to poorer regions.
    I tend to agree the Singapore model is only realistic for London and the South East commuter belt
    It could become independent of the rest of the UK, and join the EU! I'm all for it!
    We would put up a 20 foot border wall and charge the losers a fortune to ship their goods, see how much they are worth when they are not pillaging rest of country.
    Build a wall and make London pay for it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Just wait until Bozo has to extend, and half the Tory vote jumps ship to Farage.
    Didn't you hear? We're getting a deal.
  • tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.
    Richard, whilst we might disagree about many things, I thoroughly agree with your dislike of the party whipping system and the power it gives parties.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    kamski said:

    Yes I was being facetious. "Becoming Singapore" about as realistic as "becoming Luxembourg"

    First get rid of Scotland, then Northern Ireland, then keep going until you're down to just Clacton, and there you have it, great setup for a tax haven.
    Good plan
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.
    Lets hope its Lindsay Hoyle. Not only does he seem even handed, the very thought of Harriet Harperson as Speaker makes one want to vomit.
    Someone who restores dignity to the office is the main prerequisite as far as I'm concerned
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Just wait until Bozo has to extend, and half the Tory vote jumps ship to Farage.
    That poll is the 'election after an extension' poll, not a stand alone VI poll
  • TOPPING said:

    Two things fans of “Singapore on Thames” rarely mention (if they’re aware of them, which may be charitable):

    The “Central Provident Fund”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Provident_Fund (which we started)

    And the Housing and Development Board: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Development_Board (82% live in public housing)

    I find that fans of a Singapore model are usually from the same group as those who say just put a border up in NI.

    90% of them have never been to either place.
    Or if they have all they’ve seen is Changi, the road to the CBD and their 5 star hotel. Take the MRT out to the stixs- it’s an eye opener- block upon block - each numbered - of concrete flats.
    I will be in Singapore in 3 weeks. Sadly, I have never used the MRT. Even though our office in Jurong is very close to the MRT station.
    Singapore taxis are quite cheap and they are "there" before you know it.
    The MRT is very easy to use - try a trip on it - you’ll see a side of Singapore visitors to the carefully manicured centre never see.....
    The MRT is fantastic, I took it from airport to downtown office last week, SG$2.50 and a slice of real life.

    I generally use public transport when I travel and eat street food. In contrast almost all my colleagues will use the company AMEX for cabs and eat in nice hotels. Don't see the point myself, everything is so generic.
    The only downside of the MRT from the airport is changing trains if you have to wait - it can get pretty muggy on the platform. My favourite restaurant is a Chinatown local ~SGD10 for main courses.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The UK could never be Singapore, (GDP/capita $65,000) which is a city state, but London could. Worth pointing out that Malaysia, of which Singapore was once a part, has a GDP/capita of $11,000. If that seems a fanciful comparison, consider that west inner London has a GDP/capita almost 10 times as high as West Wales and the Valleys - and that is with the existing level of redistribution from richer to poorer regions.
    I tend to agree the Singapore model is only realistic for London and the South East commuter belt
    It could become independent of the rest of the UK, and join the EU! I'm all for it!
    We would put up a 20 foot border wall and charge the losers a fortune to ship their goods, see how much they are worth when they are not pillaging rest of country.
    Build a wall and make London pay for it?
    Yes and at costs the way they do to us so years behind schedule and at least double the cost
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Just wait until Bozo has to extend, and half the Tory vote jumps ship to Farage.
    https://twitter.com/stephen_latham/status/1171116215365971969
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    @MarqueeMark

    I think it was you who asked about what those posters who expected no deal are doing, and hat their exposure is (apologies if it was someone else). In an article earlier this year I pointed out that I would insure against no deal by currency conversion. This was done and at current rates of 1gbp=1.12eur my loss after conversion costs is about £150. In the event of a deal I expect EUR to reach 1.2 or more, at which point my loss is in four figures and becomes difficult to hide in the noise. Should that happen, I might cut my losses at 1.17 or - to be honest - just leave it there and absorb the loss. The point of non-Sterling holdings is to insure against adverse currency movements, and if that involves a loss, well nothing is free... :)

    I might write this up as an article. Political betting is useful as a hedge against adverse political events, and it compares well to alternates such as spread betting and currency conversion: it's surprising what happens when you do these things for real.
  • Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Of course, it works both ways because it means the existing Government will be less likely to put forward a motion for one.

    Therefore, the only route left available is a VoNC followed by a 14 day period where no alternative is formed.

    But then you have the possibility that if Brexit is punted into the long grass, possibly with a new Tory PM, the 21 expelled MPs might largely come back into the fold, and a new deal cut with the DUP, so you have 320 MPs once again and can probably win one.

    There will always be a compelling reason for someone not to agree to an early GE.
  • tlg86 said:

    Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Just wait until Bozo has to extend, and half the Tory vote jumps ship to Farage.
    https://twitter.com/stephen_latham/status/1171116215365971969
    OK, so the ship-jumping is built in already!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    Norm said:

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    Nope. That is exactly the problem. Pickng people based on party affiliations sets a bad tone right at the start.
    Lets hope its Lindsay Hoyle. Not only does he seem even handed, the very thought of Harriet Harperson as Speaker makes one want to vomit.
    Someone who restores dignity to the office is the main prerequisite as far as I'm concerned
    In some ways, as both a brilliant and terrible speaker, Bercow may be a reasonably easy act to follow. There might not be someone like him ever again. The really interesting question to me is how much his successor will adapt or continue his changes, like the Urgent Questions. That's one of the tests of whether he'll be remembered.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Morning all :)

    The ComRes numbers show us how vital the Overwithers are to Boris and the Conservatives. If Boris gets Brexit over the line, whether with a Deal or without, there's a critical portion of the electorate who will reward him - indeed that 6-7% of the electorate are the difference between another Hung Parliament and a solid Conservative majority.

    Hence Boris's determination to cross the line on 31/10 and that's all that matters. ComRes shows the consequences for him of another extension so he cannot agree to that.

    Indeed, as it did for the Conservative leadership election, the polling shows the way and closes down other options. It was a binary option on 23/6/16 and it is now for Boris - if we leave on 31/10 he may win a GE, if we don't, he may not be finished but his chances of a majority look much less. This now underpins everything he says and does - he is pleading with the Overwithers who will run to BP if Boris, in their eyes, fails by not getting us out on 31/10.

    The opposition will see the same figures of course and it may empower them to set aside their obvious differences and agree the interim Government to block No Deal and get a new extension if it is offered.

    We are down to this now - it will dominate the upcoming Party Conference session and the next seven weeks.

    Boris has to get Brexit delivered on 31/10 - deal or No Deal. Succeed and a GE victory will be his, fail and he will be consigned to a fate worse than death or a fate worse than a fate worse than death (see TMay).
  • Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Those aren't the ComRes figures:

    https://twitter.com/ComRes/status/1171009460959109121
  • That's a relief. It's only British exporters who are going to get stuffed:

    Robert added that the main issues in a no-deal Brexit will be felt in Europe, saying: "There will be a shortage of cheddar in Carrefore, but there won't be a shortage of Brie in Tesco."
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Johnson could start going to rallies , shouting " lock me up , no deal ".
  • malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    The UK could never be Singapore, (GDP/capita $65,000) which is a city state, but London could. Worth pointing out that Malaysia, of which Singapore was once a part, has a GDP/capita of $11,000. If that seems a fanciful comparison, consider that west inner London has a GDP/capita almost 10 times as high as West Wales and the Valleys - and that is with the existing level of redistribution from richer to poorer regions.
    LOL, redistribution, you really are joking. You mean robbery from the regions to London.
    I have a huge amount of sympathy for the view that London is too dominant within the UK both economically and politically (although in reality much of the power and wealth lies in the wealthy Shires, not London itself, which is home to some of the most deprived areas of the country). But taking all that as given, as a matter of simple accounting it is the case that London generates a fiscal surplus which is redistributed to the rest of the country, even taking into account higher public spending in London.
    Anyway, I am not saying this in a triumphal London centric sense, I was only trying to point out that this kind of UK as Singapore story is absurd because Singapore is a trading city state not a diverse economy like the UK.
    (FYI I am Scottish and grew up there and in the NE of England so I certainly understand your frustration at the unbalanced nature of the UK, even while also loving London as a brilliant place to live and raise a family).
  • Price on a GE this year has slowly drifted since last night..

    Now layable at 1.32
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,436
    edited September 2019
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The ComRes numbers show us how vital the Overwithers are to Boris and the Conservatives. If Boris gets Brexit over the line, whether with a Deal or without, there's a critical portion of the electorate who will reward him - indeed that 6-7% of the electorate are the difference between another Hung Parliament and a solid Conservative majority.

    Hence Boris's determination to cross the line on 31/10 and that's all that matters. ComRes shows the consequences for him of another extension so he cannot agree to that.

    Indeed, as it did for the Conservative leadership election, the polling shows the way and closes down other options. It was a binary option on 23/6/16 and it is now for Boris - if we leave on 31/10 he may win a GE, if we don't, he may not be finished but his chances of a majority look much less. This now underpins everything he says and does - he is pleading with the Overwithers who will run to BP if Boris, in their eyes, fails by not getting us out on 31/10.

    The opposition will see the same figures of course and it may empower them to set aside their obvious differences and agree the interim Government to block No Deal and get a new extension if it is offered.

    We are down to this now - it will dominate the upcoming Party Conference session and the next seven weeks.

    Boris has to get Brexit delivered on 31/10 - deal or No Deal. Succeed and a GE victory will be his, fail and he will be consigned to a fate worse than death or a fate worse than a fate worse than death (see TMay).

    Surely Boris's electoral reward after a hypothetical Brexit on the 31/10 will be significantly dependent on the as yet unknown consequences of Brexit. If all is perceived to be going swimmingly, then the reward will indeed be his. But if it's No Deal and everything starts going to pot - food shortages, etc. - then his reward will evaporate very quickly.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.

    Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.

    Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited September 2019
    The Tories made a mistake of monumental proportions. Someone cerebral was needed and they went for the clown. The writing was on the wall in letters you could see from outer space. DONT TOUCH THIS OAF WITH BARGE POLL!

    Mrs May showed the way with her decision to rub the faces of 16.5 million voters into the mud during her election campaign. She lost her majority and appointed Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary. The nasty party had become the ridiculous party......

    His incompetence became famous at home and abroad and his disloyalty had the ERG green with envy. He finally managed to force Mrs May out. The person who had given him a second chance......

    Even during the leadership campaign those Tory members with a sensory bypass were given a last chance when the police were called to his love nest at 2 AM.......

    ........No one can say they went into this blind because they didn't. They deserve everything that's coming and that includes PM Corbyn
  • https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1171360728462311425

    They don’t have the votes for Revoke so I presume this is just posturing.

    Revoke attempt must come before any Deal.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    @Casino_Royale Just to say I enjoyed your piece the other day.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    “Over on Betfair at the time of writing the Conservatives have an implied probability of over 65% to win most seats, given the inaccuracy of betting markets in recent years that should send a cold shiver down the back of Boris Johnson as he hopes to hold a general election this year. Certainly the majority of the polls published this weekend just gone didn’t imply a Conservative majority.”

    🤔

    Con maj is a 33% chance though. Most seats doesn’t mean a majority.
  • CD13 said:


    I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country.

    It’s not the EU that took away England’s nationhood, but the UK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    viewcode said:

    @MarqueeMark

    I think it was you who asked about what those posters who expected no deal are doing, and hat their exposure is (apologies if it was someone else). In an article earlier this year I pointed out that I would insure against no deal by currency conversion. This was done and at current rates of 1gbp=1.12eur my loss after conversion costs is about £150. In the event of a deal I expect EUR to reach 1.2 or more, at which point my loss is in four figures and becomes difficult to hide in the noise. Should that happen, I might cut my losses at 1.17 or - to be honest - just leave it there and absorb the loss. The point of non-Sterling holdings is to insure against adverse currency movements, and if that involves a loss, well nothing is free... :)

    I might write this up as an article. Political betting is useful as a hedge against adverse political events, and it compares well to alternates such as spread betting and currency conversion: it's surprising what happens when you do these things for real.

    Twasn't I - but please write it anyway!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Roger said:

    The Tories made a mistake of monumental proportions. Someone cerebral was needed and they went for the clown. The writing was on the wall in letters you could see from outer space. DONT TOUCH THIS OAF WITH BARGE POLL!

    Mrs May showed the way with her decision to rub the faces of 16.5 million voters into the mud during her election campaign. She lost her majority and appointed Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary. The nasty party had become the ridiculous party......

    His incompetence became famous at home and abroad and his disloyalty had the ERG green with envy. He finally managed to force Mrs May out. The person who had given him a second chance......

    Even during the leadership campaign those Tory members with a sensory bypass were given a last chance when the police were called to his love nest at 2 AM.......

    ........No one can say they went into this blind because they didn't. They deserve everything that's coming and that includes PM Corbyn

    Blimey, a post from Roger I agree with.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    That's a relief. It's only British exporters who are going to get stuffed:

    Robert added that the main issues in a no-deal Brexit will be felt in Europe, saying: "There will be a shortage of cheddar in Carrefore, but there won't be a shortage of Brie in Tesco."
    LOL yes phew!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    CD13 said:


    I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country.

    It’s not the EU that took away England’s nationhood, but the UK.
    “I’ve lost St George in the Union Jack; it’s my flag too and I want it back”
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856

    CD13 said:


    I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country.

    It’s not the EU that took away England’s nationhood, but the UK.
    Some people do consider themselves British. Just saying.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    Finally something we can agree on!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900


    Surely Boris's electoral reward after a hypothetical Brexit on the 31/10 will be significantly dependent on the as yet unknown consequences of Brexit. If all is perceived to be going swimmingly, then the reward will indeed be his. But if it's No Deal and everything starts going to pot - food shortages, etc. - then his reward will evaporate very quickly.

    I'm less convinced - the Overwithers seem willing to put up with quite a bit of pain to ensure we are out of the EU on 31/10. The issue for me is whether they will be satisfied with a WA which will mean we stay in the EU with all the obligations but no political involvement in the decision making process (call it "vassal state" status if you like) until 31/12/20 or later.

    I think for that reason alone No Deal is the only game in town because it's the only option by which it looks as though we have actually left. I remain unconvinced a significant proportion of those who voted Leave on 23/6/16 thought we would be out of the EU on 24/6/16 because that's how elections normally work in this country.

    The question for me is what will the Conservatives do if an alternate Government is formed and agrees a 24-month extension to say October 2021 and gets that into law.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Norm said:

    Interesting blog on polling company “house effects” on results

    https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/

    "As of the end of August, the Polling Observatory puts support for the Conservatives at 35.5% (16.9 points above where the party stood at the end of May), Labour at 24.5% (just one point higher than May), the Liberal Democrats at 18.0% (0.2 points down), the Brexit Party at 12.1% (10 points down) and the Green Party 5.3% (one point down) – with UKIP support statistically indistinguishable from 0%."
    Mind you this came out yesterday

    https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1171084638225424385

    Perhaps Labour might yet regret their decision not to go for an early GE
    Those aren't the ComRes figures:

    https://twitter.com/ComRes/status/1171009460959109121
    You are right - I picked up a retweet by Alastair Stewart of newsreader fame. Perhaps not so impartial after all.
  • kjh said:

    @Casino_Royale Just to say I enjoyed your piece the other day.

    Thank you.
  • CD13 said:


    I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country.

    It’s not the EU that took away England’s nationhood, but the UK.
    Some people do consider themselves British. Just saying.
    Being British can be like being Scandinavian. To adapt a favourite Eurosceptic phrase: “England is not leaving Britain, just the UK.”
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,758
    This is the problem:

    406 constituencies voted to Leave, 242 voted to remain.
    148 Labour constituencies voted to Leave, 84 voted to Remain
    247 Tory constituencies voted to Leave, 80 voted to Remain.
    9 regions voted to Leave, 3 voted to Remain.
    160 MP’s voted to Leave 486 voted to Remain.

    Which is why we need an election.

    BUT - it seems vanishingly unlikely that BJ can win big, so we will remain in stasis, unable to decide anything, until the EU finally boots us out without a Deal. I can't really see a way that avoids No Deal.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    Theresa May seems to regard Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill as family from Home Office days, and is apparently completely oblivious to the effect of awarding gongs to her family on the repute of the honours system.

    She always believed that the Tory party was the country, so it's no surprise to me that she seems to believe her family is the nation's.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    This is the problem:

    406 constituencies voted to Leave, 242 voted to remain.
    148 Labour constituencies voted to Leave, 84 voted to Remain
    247 Tory constituencies voted to Leave, 80 voted to Remain.
    9 regions voted to Leave, 3 voted to Remain.
    160 MP’s voted to Leave 486 voted to Remain.

    Which is why we need an election.

    BUT - it seems vanishingly unlikely that BJ can win big, so we will remain in stasis, unable to decide anything, until the EU finally boots us out without a Deal. I can't really see a way that avoids No Deal.

    "vanishingly unlikely"? The YouGov poll waves......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    isam said:

    What a disgrace the honours list is. A load of TMs flunkys rewarded for completely nausing things.

    Finally something we can agree on!
    Has malcolmg opined on them yet....?!

    He should instigate the Golden Turnips.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    tlg86 said:

    Harriet of the Harman going for speaker, probably rules her out as caretaker PM as these things will likely, if occurring, be almost concurrent.

    Isn't it about time a Tory got the job?
    I want a parliamentarian to get the job.

    Lindsay Hoyle fits the bill - doesn’t matter he’s Labour.

    Any Tories you’d recommend?
    I can't think of any, but nonetheless I think we should try and get one while it's still a meaningful term.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Very good jobs news. For Boris.
This discussion has been closed.