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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong
The charts above show how even the betting markets can get it spectacularly wrong. Below is the spreads offered by Sporting Index a few hours before the polls opened for the 2015 general election.
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Not just Nigel Farage. Telegraph cartoonist Matt reported that Number 10 told the editor just before polls closed that Remain had won by 55 to 45.
Some very good graphs there, Mr. Eagles.
I put a small sum on Labour getting a majority (a Mr. Meeks' tip) and on the Conservatives getting under a certain seat total (317, I think).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/sep/10/did-your-mp-vote-for-an-early-general-election
The spectrum of final poll tallies is very wide, yet alone the potential seat spreads - which is vast.
This occasion it will be even more so as we’ll be getting three/four way marginals, tactical voting, surprise results and various applecarts overturned in all sorts of unusual places the likes of which we’ve never seen before.
They believed Calamity Cooper.
That was based on a final day-of-poll opinion poll, which was called out as likely bullshit on here the same morning.
It's a strange world in which we live in.
Boris is dreadful but he can be joined by Corbyn, Bercow, Grieve and many others
I have no idea what this will do to the polls but I cannot think anything other than the Country will not give anyone a boost
Fortunately, my wife and I leave on Saturday on our trans atlantic cruise and only return on the 8th October, just before the crunch mid october period when anything could happen
And last night I learnt David Jones, a committed brexiteer, is not seeking re-election in Clwyd West
I think that they were the source of Lord Brodie's question last week about whether "high politics" can also involve "low cunning".
Ye sordid prostitutes, have you not defil’d this sacred place and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral purposes and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.
It is usually an event that we here are fighting like cats in a sack and have no idea about and if I may say we are quite an informed group so how on earth would "the betting markets" know better?
Let anyone on here defend any mps behaviour yesterday - we need to unite in our condemnation of them all
I don't it is ever desirable to have no functioning government but it is particularly unfortunate at the moment when some things of moderate importance are going on.
Hearing about last night on the radio this morning makes me feel shaken. Our democracy is falling to pieces. We're inflicting terrible harm upon ourselves by our unwillingness to compromise.
I’m struggling to see any resolution achievable through a GE at the moment.
Last week the wheeze was to pass some kind of ammendment that called for a GE withouth the 2/3s majority. That would have failed.
I don't know about Signal.
There was no need for the half hearted prorogation, it doesnt help deliver Brexit, all it did was make the support of 21 MPs untenable.
There was no need to arrange a meeting with Hammond to update him and then cancel at the last minute. It doesnt help deliver Brexit, it just shows the contempt the PM has for disagreement.
There was no need for the Leader of the House to visibly disrespect the House of Commons, it doesnt help the government, it just shows the contempt he has for parliament.
It is his attitude and constant deceit and game playing that has cost him his majority so early on. It would not have survived the no deal part of his policy regardless but he could have had at least a further month to get a deal were he capable and willing to do so.
This is not about who is right or wrong, this is about the image of the Mother of Parliaments trashing its reputation in front of the country and world wide
What is the rule under the FTPA? Does a budget failing mean an election without the "14 days to find another PM"? Does this also apply to the Queens Speech?
They insisted that the government publish its risk assessment for No Deal, so that people can prepare.
They insisted that the government produce evidence that it has not lied to Queen and Courts.
It has insisted that the PM is not above the law.
It has objected unsuccessfully against being suspended during a national political crisis.
It was a good day in Parliament. MPs done good.
(1) Why are we asking for another extension? Nothing is going to happen in that time. The EU may well grant it, but they have no reason to move anymore.
My view? Its a continuation of the last three years of the politicians playing silly buggers in order to delay and finally eliminate a chance of any Brexit.
I do have a genuine question. We've heard a lot from some Remainers who blame the Brexit enthusiasts for not tying to appease the 48% of the voters who voted for the EU. Had the result gone 52 - 48 in favour of staying, what would the government and the majority Remainers in the HoC done to appease the 48% of dissident Leavers?
Would they have announced a mini-leave? Perhaps withdrawn from some obligations? We know the answer to that. Why then are they not called out for their clear and obvious hypocrisy. Perhaps because their arrogance blinds them?
I suspect the poshos will have their way. We'll stay and Nationhood will disappear as we're subsumed into a single country. But we'll still be ruled by politicians who think they know better and the voters are barely the means to an end.
As someone who has spent more time than is reasonable in a well-ordered life getting hold of and reading electronic messages of all kinds, some free advice:-
- once you have created something electronically never ever think that you can delete it. You can’t. One way or another you will be caught out.
- If you use a personal device for work messages (a bloody stupid thing to do if you are in government) you cannot claim that this is private stuff and exempt from disclosure, whether under the GPDR or the ECHR or whatever principle or law you’ve just plucked out of your arse in the hope that you won’t be caught or embarrassed.
- Grieve is not persecuting some minor SPADS. He has listed 9 names because they are people involved in the discussions around prorogation and can reasonably be expected to have relevant evidence.
- It is unusual for a party to a case not to provide evidence on oath to support what it is saying. If, as appears to be the case, no-one was prepared to sign a witness statement on behalf of the government that suggests that there may be questions as to why and whether that was because the full accurate story was not being told.
- That matters because trust in what Ministers say - whether to Parliament or a court - matters. I know this may seem like old-fashioned nonsense these days. But it is still true. And it is absolutely right that this government should be held to account for it.
This will make me even more unpopular this evening but Grieve, as a former A-G, knows what he is talking about it here and is absolutely right to demand full and frank disclosure about what the government was doing, when and what it was saying to Parliament, the court and the public.
May had exactly the same problem albeit with a different group of MPs and went down to the same defeats without the game playing. The Conservative party right now is so disunited that it cannot provide effective government. It needs to purge itself to get a coherence of purpose back. May should have done this with the ERG, Boris is doing this with the Euro fanatics. Either way is more desirable than carrying on without a government.
They are furious over last nights performance
(Catching up on last night's thread I see that the 'Corbyn is finished' squeal was back amongst drunken PB Tories - in incarnation no. 456346789999. Again, usually a good sign.)
No - it bloody isn’t. It’s asking for messages which relate to the reasons why prorogation was being sought. These are work messages not private messages. How hard is it for journalists to understand this?
Which is not perhaps such a good sign.
The next successful Prime Minister will be a coalition-builder.
Perhaps he will oblige ?
What we do have is a Prime Minister who cannot command a majority in the House of Commons. The effect is that no *new laws* can be passed, unless a chunk of the opposition agree.
BTW: I don't think calling someone like Rory Stewart a 'Euro fanatic' is correct. He was about the only Conservative to strongly bat in public for May's deal - which was hardly 'remain'.
The real 'Euro fanatics' are those who have put leaving the EU above all other matters for decades, and are willing to see the country descend into chaos - and are now salivating at the thought of civil disobedience as a result.
So it's not all bad news...
Thought crimes next.
And let’s not start on his approach to Parliamentary procedure...
That would require them to be able to think.
Or perhaps it’s just entitlement.
"If we’d voted Remain we’d have had Cameron’s deal, which away from the predictable bluster had some sensible concessions for Leavers."
And these were?