The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.
It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.
That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
He is siding "against" the executive and with the Commons.
Edit: as is his job.
Nope he is picking one side in the Commons to side with. It is not the same thing.
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.
It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.
That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
He is siding "against" the executive and with the Commons.
Edit: as is his job.
Nope he is picking one side in the Commons to side with. It is not the same thing.
Would you agree that a majority of the Commons is against prorogation?
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.
It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.
That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
He is siding "against" the executive and with the Commons.
Edit: as is his job.
Nope he is picking one side in the Commons to side with. It is not the same thing.
So the majority of the Commons? As in, the way a representative democracy might work?
I'm not sure I see a Commons majority for revocation, any more than No Deal*.
Even if that's the secretly-desired eventual outcome for a large proportion of MPs, they don't say so publicly, don't think it can/should be done without EURef2, and most importantly, don't want their fingerprints on it.
(*or Deal, tbf... hence where we are today)
If the EU don’t give an extension then revocation would be the only way to avoid No Deal. I think there would be a majority for it.
I think I agree. Something impossible and unprecedented HAS to happen to break the Brexit logjam. Maybe it will be revoke, if the stark alternative, in a few days, is No Deal.
I could see a terrified Commons going for it, on October 29th, if Boris has managed to sidestep the Surrender Bill and we are nodealing over the edge.
And someone on the site £1,000 (formerly £10,000) poorer.
Yeah, maybe if no extension is offered.
But I think if it's requested, it'll come (especially it being clear a GE will follow). And if Johnson doesn't request, I'd expect him to be VONC'd PDQ in favour of someone who would ahead of revocation.
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
I mean, I watch MSNBC & CNN, listen to 538 and watch Comedy Central / HBO and they are all talking about Brexit to some degree or other (usually as the silly end of the show story, that would usually be reserved for some sports faring furry animal, but still). One MSNBC show even went so far as to pass judgement on the capabilities of the PM, after listing his historic failures in the House.
The Tories will commit to backing Brexit Deal or No Deal until it is delivered with Leavers largely united behind them, up until 2022 if necessary.
As Scotland shows referendum impact does not go away and certainly not when the result is ignored
I'm left with two thoughts on this response for which as always many thanks:
1) Would the Conservatives support a Brexit WA if it were proposed by an alternative Government? Hypothetically, an alternative Government gets an extension during which the WA is re-negotiated and the alternative Government offers it to the Commons, Would the Conservatives back it ?
2) Let's say we get to 2022 - we are still in the EU and the ensuing election fails to produce a Conservative majority. If another party came and said "we will support your domestic agenda but will not under any circumstances back a No Deal Brexit. Further, if you reject that we will do a deal with the Opposition which now supports revoking A50 and go into Government with them shutting you out for five years", what would you do, were you a Conservative MP, suggest to your leader?
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
People don't talk about politics on the street - or very rarely. They talk about it on social media. And right now "Black Rod" is trending number THREE in America.
It's a definite thing. I cannot imagine any arcane political procedure, in any other country, has ever achieved such weird global renown.
That clip is terrible. It puts beyond all reasonable doubt that Bercow is siding with one side of the House, attacking one side with cheers from the other.
He is siding "against" the executive and with the Commons.
Edit: as is his job.
Nope he is picking one side in the Commons to side with. It is not the same thing.
Would you agree that a majority of the Commons is against prorogation?
As that same majority is against the offer (twice) of a free and fair election which the governing party would be likely to lose.
"Take Back Control!" "Parliament Must Be Sovereign!"
Unless, er, I don't like it.
I know it's usually said flippantly, but I do get confused how some people can simultaneously be disgusted at MPs and think they're all useless, yet also still think Brexit is the best idea since sliced bread. It IS going to mean MPs having even more responsiblities and decision-making powers...
I mean, all these "global trade deals" that we're supposedly going to do after Brexit - even if these were a good idea in principle, what makes people think British politicians would be any more competent or able to find consensus on how to go about getting them, than they were able to with the Brexit withdrawal agreement?
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
Here in Richmond Park we are up for a December election.
In December 2016, Sarah Olney LibDem overturned Zac Goldsmith's 23,000 majority. This time we only have to overturn his majority of 45. Bring it on.
As that same majority is against the offer (twice) of a free and fair election which the governing party would be likely to lose.
Not the question asked. The speaker can only enable the will of the majority to be heard. Not determine what that will should be on any particular issue.
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
You should probably have a word with some of your fellow Brexiteers who are calling for the whole Westminster nest of 'scum ' to be cleared out, or in one particularly dickish case, gleefully anticipating 'remoaner' mps who'd supported some obstructive amendment or other, meeting the fate of Jo Cox. That's making nobody laugh, I'll grant you.
If we think it's bad tempered now, wait till its Oct 29th and the opposition are trying to pass a revoke of article 50! I'd imagine it would fall just short but it would be very close. Govt and DUP against and would need about 12 to 13 labour or independent leavers. Someone like Clarke might abstain, in fact a number might, preferring referendum
Off topic. Any reason why the BBC has spent so much time today talking about Sir Geoffrey Boycott's conviction 25 years ago in France, which under English law would be a spent conviction about 20 years ago? Is this proper public service broadcasting or just exploiting a loophole?
There are aspects to Bercow that make him come across as a bit of a tosser, but the bit I like about him is that he has stood up to the bully boys and generally come out best. He has a job to be impartial, and to follow the correct procedures of the House as he and his team see them. It is perfectly possible to be impartial most of the time, but to still be seen as impartial by those on the extreme fringe. Most brexiteers in the Conservative Party are on the extreme fringe, particularly the most vocal, and every time he does not align to their extreme view of the world they will suggest he is impartial. Each occasion they are verbally slapped down by Bercow he goes up in my estimation.
Re the honours system - I know this gets done to death each time, but I fail to see why someone gets an honour for doing their job (but only in certain jobs, typically politician, civil servant, sports person, actor, CEO). And why the disparity in the award if you are higher or lower in the social standing.
My view is awards should only be given for voluntary work and bravery and the level of the award should be dependent upon what you did not where you stand in the social hierarchy.
Would add a criterion for outstanding positive world class achievement. But would limit it to say 100 living awardees, to make it properly exclusive.
There is already the yet more exclusive Order of Merit, which is that kind of thing.
Mr. Woolie, hmm. Would they not be better off (both politically and in terms of trying to actually achieve it) going for a referendum rather than direct revocation?
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
You should probably have a word with some of your fellow Brexiteers who are calling for the whole nest of 'scum ' to be cleared out, or in one particularly dickish case, gleefully anticipating 'remoaner' mps who'd supported some obstructive amendment or other, meeting the fate of Jo Cox. That's making nobody laugh, I'll grant you.
Yes, if you are referring to the post I think you were it was disgraceful. It was pretty close to incitement. The slogan "take back control" seems to be less on Brexiteers lips these days. Their idea is that control should only be exercised by people that share their jaundiced view of the world.
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
I mean, I watch MSNBC & CNN, listen to 538 and watch Comedy Central / HBO and they are all talking about Brexit to some degree or other (usually as the silly end of the show story, that would usually be reserved for some sports faring furry animal, but still). One MSNBC show even went so far as to pass judgement on the capabilities of the PM, after listing his historic failures in the House.
That is just the liberal East Coast elite media. Most Real Americans would struggle to locate Britain on a map and think that the Harry Potter movies are documentaries. They really couldn't give two shits about anything we do.
As that same majority is against the offer (twice) of a free and fair election which the governing party would be likely to lose.
Not the question asked. The speaker can only enable the will of the majority to be heard. Not determine what that will should be on any particular issue.
Still a question not without interest. Prorogation is not in the gift of parliament, so in that sense why would what they think matter? Testing its reasonableness is a matter for Judicial Review, not parliament. Except if they were really keen they could have passed an act overturning the prorogation.
I think if Boris brings back anything at all that can be limped over the line the house will grab it and run with it, there would be enough labour leavers and indies to get it home I think. So it really will come down to how serious he is about a new deal
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
The Feb 1974 election had a particularly high turn out of 78.8%.
The only higher ones seem to be 1950, and 1951. The Feb 1950 seems to be the highest recorded in the era of universal suffrage. Not much postal voting or central heating in them days.
If we think it's bad tempered now, wait till its Oct 29th and the opposition are trying to pass a revoke of article 50! I'd imagine it would fall just short but it would be very close. Govt and DUP against and would need about 12 to 13 labour or independent leavers. Someone like Clarke might abstain, in fact a number might, preferring referendum
I can't see why we should be any more worried about 33ish % of the population being angry than we are about the rest of us that don't want an unnecessary crash out and have just as much to be angry about
Mr. Woolie, hmm. Would they not be better off (both politically and in terms of trying to actually achieve it) going for a referendum rather than direct revocation?
I guess it depends what, if any, extension gets offered
Off topic. Any reason why the BBC has spent so much time today talking about Sir Geoffrey Boycott's conviction 25 years ago in France, which under English law would be a spent conviction about 20 years ago? Is this proper public service broadcasting or just exploiting a loophole?
Do you not consider it newsworthy? He is a public figure and he has been knighted. He has had a fully publicised conviction that he says was unjust but does not seem to have appealed against it.
Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP): Democracy and Demography + Vice Presidency. Šuica will also lead, from the Commission side, the work on the Conference on the Future of Europe.
Johannes Hahn (Austria, EPP) Budget and Administration
Didier Reynders (Belgium, ALDE): Justice, including rule of law
Mariya Gabriel (Bulgaria, EPP): Innovation and Youth.
Stella Kyriakides (Cyprus, EPP): Health
Kadri Simson (Estonia, ALDE): Energy.
Jutta Urpilainen (Finland, PES): International Partnerships.
Sylvie Goulard (France ALDE): Internal Market + responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space.
László Trócsányi (Hungary, EPP): Enlargement.
Phil Hogan (Ireland, EPP): Trade.
Paolo Gentiloni (Italy, PES): Economic and Financial Affairs.
Virginijus Sinkevičius (Lithuania): Environment and Oceans.
Nicolas Schmit (Luxembourg, PES) : Employment.
Helena Dalli (Malta, PES): Equality
Janusz Wojciechowski (Poland, ECR): Agriculture.
Elisa Ferreira (Portugal, PES) : Cohesion and Reforms.
Rovana Plumb (Romania, PES): Transport.
Janez Lenarčič (Slovenia, ALDE): Crisis Management
Ylva Johansson (Sweden, PES): Home Affairs.
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If we think it's bad tempered now, wait till its Oct 29th and the opposition are trying to pass a revoke of article 50! I'd imagine it would fall just short but it would be very close. Govt and DUP against and would need about 12 to 13 labour or independent leavers. Someone like Clarke might abstain, in fact a number might, preferring referendum
I can't see why we should be any more worried about 33ish % of the population being angry than we are about the rest of us that don't want an unnecessary crash out and have just as much to be angry about
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
The Feb 1974 election had a particularly high turn out of 78.8%.
The only higher ones seem to be 1950, and 1951. The Feb 1950 seems to be the highest recorded in the era of universal suffrage. Not much postal voting or central heating in them days.
Turnout was formerly boosted by the fact that new electoral registers came into force in February - ie they were fought on 'new' registers. I believe we have now moved to a different system of rolling registers.
If we think it's bad tempered now, wait till its Oct 29th and the opposition are trying to pass a revoke of article 50! I'd imagine it would fall just short but it would be very close. Govt and DUP against and would need about 12 to 13 labour or independent leavers. Someone like Clarke might abstain, in fact a number might, preferring referendum
The other striking thing from his account is how much he, a French journalist in France, tweets about Brexit. It's endless. For good or ill, the world is fascinated by our painful quasi-revolution.
Always with the Yookay-centricity, Sea..er..Byronic.
It can be overdone. Margaret Atwood on R4 this am was asked if Brexit had influenced the writing of The Testaments, her sequel to The Handmaid's Tale. After a short, nonplussed silence, she replied that she thought it more likely that THT had influenced Brexit (said with a sardonic laugh, I hasten to add).
it's true though. Thanks to Brexit, more people around the world probably know more about the British parliamentary system than any other system anywhere in the world.
Some are, some aren't. I think most aren't, but I might be biassed. Either way the entire world is being schooled in the rites and rituals of our great British democracy, which is a jolly good thing, as I am sure you will agree.
I’m in the US now, and not a single person has yet to mention it. The one person I mentioned it to in passing just gave me a blank look. There are regular Brexit news updates on PBS but I doubt this is mass listening.
Unlike when I was in Europe in the spring, when every other person wanted to talk about it.
I mean, I watch MSNBC & CNN, listen to 538 and watch Comedy Central / HBO and they are all talking about Brexit to some degree or other (usually as the silly end of the show story, that would usually be reserved for some sports faring furry animal, but still). One MSNBC show even went so far as to pass judgement on the capabilities of the PM, after listing his historic failures in the House.
That is just the liberal East Coast elite media. Most Real Americans would struggle to locate Britain on a map and think that the Harry Potter movies are documentaries. They really couldn't give two shits about anything we do.
Those coastal liberals, good thing most Americans don't live there... It would be especially problematic if they were also the financial, trade and technology hubs... Good thing that is all concentrated in Utah
Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP): Democracy and Demography + Vice Presidency. Šuica will also lead, from the Commission side, the work on the Conference on the Future of Europe.
Johannes Hahn (Austria, EPP) Budget and Administration
Didier Reynders (Belgium, ALDE): Justice, including rule of law
Mariya Gabriel (Bulgaria, EPP): Innovation and Youth.
Stella Kyriakides (Cyprus, EPP): Health
Kadri Simson (Estonia, ALDE): Energy.
Jutta Urpilainen (Finland, PES): International Partnerships.
Sylvie Goulard (France ALDE): Internal Market + responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space.
László Trócsányi (Hungary, EPP): Enlargement.
Phil Hogan (Ireland, EPP): Trade.
Paolo Gentiloni (Italy, PES): Economic and Financial Affairs.
Virginijus Sinkevičius (Lithuania): Environment and Oceans.
Nicolas Schmit (Luxembourg, PES) : Employment.
Helena Dalli (Malta, PES): Equality
Janusz Wojciechowski (Poland, ECR): Agriculture.
Elisa Ferreira (Portugal, PES) : Cohesion and Reforms.
Rovana Plumb (Romania, PES): Transport.
Janez Lenarčič (Slovenia, ALDE): Crisis Management
Ylva Johansson (Sweden, PES): Home Affairs.
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
Well this is what we’ll be rejoining if Brexit proves to be quite the mistake.
I think if Boris brings back anything at all that can be limped over the line the house will grab it and run with it, there would be enough labour leavers and indies to get it home I think. So it really will come down to how serious he is about a new deal
I really don't think that Labour - or indeed other Opposition - MPs will have any inclination to reward Johnson post -Prorogation. Mann staying away will not help him. He has burnt his boats and enjoys zero goodwill - or trust.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Off topic. Any reason why the BBC has spent so much time today talking about Sir Geoffrey Boycott's conviction 25 years ago in France, which under English law would be a spent conviction about 20 years ago? Is this proper public service broadcasting or just exploiting a loophole?
Because. Put up a high profile, controversial recipient, and the media misses the blatant cronyism...simples.
I think if Boris brings back anything at all that can be limped over the line the house will grab it and run with it, there would be enough labour leavers and indies to get it home I think. So it really will come down to how serious he is about a new deal
I really don't think that Labour - or indeed other Opposition - MPs will have any inclination to reward Johnson post -Prorogation. Mann staying away will not help him. He has burnt his boats and enjoys zero goodwill - or trust.
MPs for a deal would probably disagree with this, and the Tory rebels would likely back it
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
It's almost as if we would have had more influence on those choices had we been a member. Now it has time to become a fully federalist system without us and we will eventually, inevitably, have to rejoin later into a system many people dislike even more than the current set up.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
As that same majority is against the offer (twice) of a free and fair election which the governing party would be likely to lose.
Not the question asked. The speaker can only enable the will of the majority to be heard. Not determine what that will should be on any particular issue.
Still a question not without interest. Prorogation is not in the gift of parliament, so in that sense why would what they think matter? Testing its reasonableness is a matter for Judicial Review, not parliament. Except if they were really keen they could have passed an act overturning the prorogation.
True. But he gave them a voice and we can all take note of that and act accordingly.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in balmy May to conduct their campaigning.
Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP): Democracy and Demography + Vice Presidency. Šuica will also lead, from the Commission side, the work on the Conference on the Future of Europe.
Johannes Hahn (Austria, EPP) Budget and Administration
Didier Reynders (Belgium, ALDE): Justice, including rule of law
Mariya Gabriel (Bulgaria, EPP): Innovation and Youth.
Stella Kyriakides (Cyprus, EPP): Health
Kadri Simson (Estonia, ALDE): Energy.
Jutta Urpilainen (Finland, PES): International Partnerships.
Sylvie Goulard (France ALDE): Internal Market + responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space.
László Trócsányi (Hungary, EPP): Enlargement.
Phil Hogan (Ireland, EPP): Trade.
Paolo Gentiloni (Italy, PES): Economic and Financial Affairs.
Virginijus Sinkevičius (Lithuania): Environment and Oceans.
Nicolas Schmit (Luxembourg, PES) : Employment.
Helena Dalli (Malta, PES): Equality
Janusz Wojciechowski (Poland, ECR): Agriculture.
Elisa Ferreira (Portugal, PES) : Cohesion and Reforms.
Rovana Plumb (Romania, PES): Transport.
Janez Lenarčič (Slovenia, ALDE): Crisis Management
Ylva Johansson (Sweden, PES): Home Affairs.
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
It's almost as if we would have had more influence on those choices had we been a member. Now it has time to become a fully federalist system without us and we will eventually, inevitably, have to rejoin later into a system many people dislike even more than the current set up.
Re the honours system - I know this gets done to death each time, but I fail to see why someone gets an honour for doing their job (but only in certain jobs, typically politician, civil servant, sports person, actor, CEO). And why the disparity in the award if you are higher or lower in the social standing.
My view is awards should only be given for voluntary work and bravery and the level of the award should be dependent upon what you did not where you stand in the social hierarchy.
Would add a criterion for outstanding positive world class achievement. But would limit it to say 100 living awardees, to make it properly exclusive.
There is already the yet more exclusive Order of Merit, which is that kind of thing.
Though Prince Charles is a recipient...
Well, I never heard of it before. They are a rum bunch, eh? A few are my idea of what we should honour. Many not.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in barmy May to conduct their campaigning.
More to the point, people don't open their doors once it gets dark.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
The final outcome of Brexit will be:
Deal: 100%.
But who knows when that might be.
As for nearer term, pre October 31st:
Deal: 75% Referendum: 10% No Deal: 5% Extension: 10%
Interesting. You're very confident Boris can get a deal delivered, and through the Commons. I hope you're right, but I don't share your optimism
Also interesting that you discount any chance or revoke, via referendum or otherwise.
Revoke would be a huge mistake and I am a pretty committed Remainer. I think that a majority in the HoC would think the same thing. No deal has been ruled out, meanwhile, which leaves, as it did many moons ago, deal or referendum. Referendum would be remain vs deal.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in barmy May to conduct their campaigning.
More to the point, people don't open their doors once it gets dark.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
Midnight 31st Oct:
Deal (including firm agreement requiring an extension to tie loose ends) 43% No Deal 5% Extension 45% Revoke 5% Black Swan 2%
I don't see him extending. I see him bringing a deal and daring the commons to vote against leaving (which would be what it would be), thus in a way turning the threat of no deal, now nullified, into a threat of not leaving.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in balmy May to conduct their campaigning.
Hordes of foot soldiers secreted amongst Carol singers
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in barmy May to conduct their campaigning.
More to the point, people don't open their doors once it gets dark.
Dont forget all those russiian bots are used to working in the cold.
I think if Boris brings back anything at all that can be limped over the line the house will grab it and run with it, there would be enough labour leavers and indies to get it home I think. So it really will come down to how serious he is about a new deal
I really don't think that Labour - or indeed other Opposition - MPs will have any inclination to reward Johnson post -Prorogation. Mann staying away will not help him. He has burnt his boats and enjoys zero goodwill - or trust.
MPs for a deal would probably disagree with this, and the Tory rebels would likely back it
I very much doubt that. Johnson and Cummings are now seen as poison - Opposition MPs will vote in whatever way becomes necessary to remove them.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Doubtful, older voters vote rain or snow. By post too.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
I would expect many more postal votes.
My polling station is almost precisely as far as the nearest post box to my house !
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Nah, the oldies will be the only ones who do.
"Like, you want me to go out and get my North Face gear, like, wet? No way, man...."
Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP): Democracy and Demography + Vice Presidency. Šuica will also lead, from the Commission side, the work on the Conference on the Future of Europe.
Johannes Hahn (Austria, EPP) Budget and Administration
Didier Reynders (Belgium, ALDE): Justice, including rule of law
Mariya Gabriel (Bulgaria, EPP): Innovation and Youth.
Stella Kyriakides (Cyprus, EPP): Health
Kadri Simson (Estonia, ALDE): Energy.
Jutta Urpilainen (Finland, PES): International Partnerships.
Sylvie Goulard (France ALDE): Internal Market + responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space.
László Trócsányi (Hungary, EPP): Enlargement.
Phil Hogan (Ireland, EPP): Trade.
Paolo Gentiloni (Italy, PES): Economic and Financial Affairs.
Virginijus Sinkevičius (Lithuania): Environment and Oceans.
Nicolas Schmit (Luxembourg, PES) : Employment.
Helena Dalli (Malta, PES): Equality
Janusz Wojciechowski (Poland, ECR): Agriculture.
Elisa Ferreira (Portugal, PES) : Cohesion and Reforms.
Rovana Plumb (Romania, PES): Transport.
Janez Lenarčič (Slovenia, ALDE): Crisis Management
Ylva Johansson (Sweden, PES): Home Affairs.
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
If ever we needed a reminder of the general ignorance of how Europe works in the minds of Leave voters we only have to look at your very silly post there. Federalism is just a preoccupation of a minority of Eurocrats and rabid Europhobics. A federal Europe is not going to happen as long as France remains a member.
I think if Boris brings back anything at all that can be limped over the line the house will grab it and run with it, there would be enough labour leavers and indies to get it home I think. So it really will come down to how serious he is about a new deal
I really don't think that Labour - or indeed other Opposition - MPs will have any inclination to reward Johnson post -Prorogation. Mann staying away will not help him. He has burnt his boats and enjoys zero goodwill - or trust.
MPs for a deal would probably disagree with this, and the Tory rebels would likely back it
I very much doubt that. Johnson and Cummings are now seen as poison - Opposition MPs will vote in whatever way becomes necessary to remove them.
If they want to face their electorate having voted down the deal and no longer able to say they are acting exclusively to stop no deal then that is their prerogative
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
The Feb 1974 election had a particularly high turn out of 78.8%.
The only higher ones seem to be 1950, and 1951. The Feb 1950 seems to be the highest recorded in the era of universal suffrage. Not much postal voting or central heating in them days.
Turnout was formerly boosted by the fact that new electoral registers came into force in February - ie they were fought on 'new' registers. I believe we have now moved to a different system of rolling registers.
Even so, not much evidence of winter suppressing turnout. Most of the low turnout elections are in May.
Noticeable that the two Feb elections represented a swing to the opposition. Perhaps those bleak nights take the shine off a government.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Doubtful, older voters vote rain or snow. By post too.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
I would expect many more postal votes.
My polling station is almost precisely as far as the nearest post box to my house !
Dunno if that's unusual...
My polling station is actually about 200 yards nearer!
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
It's almost as if we would have had more influence on those choices had we been a member. Now it has time to become a fully federalist system without us and we will eventually, inevitably, have to rejoin later into a system many people dislike even more than the current set up.
No. Switzerland has no desire to join, at all. Nor does Norway. At the moment Norway is 70/20 against the idea. Overwhelming. They will never join, and we will never rejoin (if we leave)
What's interesting in Switzerland and Norway is that both countries used to be ambivalent about joining the EU, and at some points they were actively keen. Now it is totally off the agenda.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
The final outcome of Brexit will be:
Deal: 100%.
But who knows when that might be.
As for nearer term, pre October 31st:
Deal: 75% Referendum: 10% No Deal: 5% Extension: 10%
Interesting. You're very confident Boris can get a deal delivered, and through the Commons. I hope you're right, but I don't share your optimism
Also interesting that you discount any chance or revoke, via referendum or otherwise.
Revoke would be a huge mistake and I am a pretty committed Remainer. I think that a majority in the HoC would think the same thing. No deal has been ruled out, meanwhile, which leaves, as it did many moons ago, deal or referendum. Referendum would be remain vs deal.
Yes but Remain needs Revoke for Remain to happen, even after a Remain-voting referendum.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
Midnight 31st Oct:
Deal (including firm agreement requiring an extension to tie loose ends) 43% No Deal 5% Extension 45% Revoke 5% Black Swan 2%
I don't see him extending. I see him bringing a deal and daring the commons to vote against leaving (which would be what it would be), thus in a way turning the threat of no deal, now nullified, into a threat of not leaving.
Much to be said for your view. However is it not likely that the agreement will be so late that technical considerations will require a short extension to pass the necessary legislation; also the law compelling an extension means that by some means an extension without any particular purpose must be a real possibility. Maybe at 45% I have pitched it too high a chance.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
The final outcome of Brexit will be:
Deal: 100%.
But who knows when that might be.
As for nearer term, pre October 31st:
Deal: 75% Referendum: 10% No Deal: 5% Extension: 10%
Interesting. You're very confident Boris can get a deal delivered, and through the Commons. I hope you're right, but I don't share your optimism
Also interesting that you discount any chance or revoke, via referendum or otherwise.
Revoke would be a huge mistake and I am a pretty committed Remainer. I think that a majority in the HoC would think the same thing. No deal has been ruled out, meanwhile, which leaves, as it did many moons ago, deal or referendum. Referendum would be remain vs deal.
Yes but Remain needs Revoke for Remain to happen, even after a Remain-voting referendum.
Er, you do get that, right?
Rejoin and remain is the only way it will be accepted.
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
The Feb 1974 election had a particularly high turn out of 78.8%.
The only higher ones seem to be 1950, and 1951. The Feb 1950 seems to be the highest recorded in the era of universal suffrage. Not much postal voting or central heating in them days.
Can't help thinking that most of the traditional reasons against winter polls have receded over the decades:
- Most campaign awareness and debate are delivered via social media, broadcast or email (not door-to-door canvassing or village hall hustings).
- Fewer people walk to polling stations (or at least *need* to if it's cold/dark/wet).
- Logistics of remote polling stations etc are less tricky in an era of mobile/electronic comms and more reliable vehicles.
- As someone else said up-thread.. more postal votes now.
Sure, there's still an element of "can't be arsed", but I'm not sure a warm day affects that as much as some believe.
And if we're on a Jan 30 deadline by the time an election comes, there *should* be a political imperative not to leave just a couple of weeks to sort it all out.
I still think we're heading to election city pretty sharpish once the Commons is back. I just don't see enough sticking power in either Boris or any caretaker government to do more than can-kick without a new parliament.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in balmy May to conduct their campaigning.
Not to mention the reporters. No fun standing in an industrial estate in the Midlands listening to a politician politick at the best of times. Worse in driving sleet.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in barmy May to conduct their campaigning.
More to the point, people don't open their doors once it gets dark.
Dont forget all those russiian bots are used to working in the cold.
Exactly! And which prominent leaver spent years in Russia and has been described as a Leninist? Dominic Cummings.
Why did Theresa May give an honour to Nick Timothy when he has spent the last several months slagging her off constantly in his column? Strange.
Increasingly wondering if we have gone past peak election now, and instead will see Corbyn and Co come round to the idea of a caretaker PM in power long enough to call a referendum on the existing deal vs remain. This parliament may want to put through something like that rather than take a punt on an election where Boris could get back in.
Corbyn would love Brexit to be done with one way or the other before he becomes PM, and there's already increasing talk of no election until next year because of the winter (depresses turnout, public preoccupied with Xmas etc).
I don't buy the idea that we cannot have an election in late November or early December . We have had November elections in 1935 and 1922. December elections took place in 1923 , 1918 and 1910. There was also a January election in 1910. More recently there were February elections in 1950 and 1974. Moreover, the much greater availability of postal votes surely makes a late Autumn or Winter election a much more practical option than was formerly the case.
I agree. I have heard a number of people commenting on here and other forums that the later the date the less likely older people are to vote and therefore the harder it will be for Cons to win a majority. I think this is inaccurate for the following reasons: 1.More people have postal votes than ever before and a significant amout of over 65s do which will mitigate any weather issues. 2.Older voters tend to vote earlier in the day e.g when it's lighter and younger later in the day when it's got dark and so more likely to dissuade them from going out in the dark. 3. This is a high stakes election and so I would think if you plan to vote you will vote, whatever the weather..
All this is before you get into the studies which show weather has littler or only marginal impact on turnout and outcomes.
FWIW I think hardcore remainers will turn out at very high levels and will vote overwhelmingly LD whatever the weather/date of the election. Over 65s will turn out as higher rates than the general population as always and will vote significantly for the Tories. Its the soft remainers and those who are not that politically engaged who are likely to be put off by timing and weather and I guess they would vote more Lab than anything but who knows.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
The final outcome of Brexit will be:
Deal: 100%.
But who knows when that might be.
As for nearer term, pre October 31st:
Deal: 75% Referendum: 10% No Deal: 5% Extension: 10%
Interesting. You're very confident Boris can get a deal delivered, and through the Commons. I hope you're right, but I don't share your optimism
Also interesting that you discount any chance or revoke, via referendum or otherwise.
Revoke would be a huge mistake and I am a pretty committed Remainer. I think that a majority in the HoC would think the same thing. No deal has been ruled out, meanwhile, which leaves, as it did many moons ago, deal or referendum. Referendum would be remain vs deal.
Yes but Remain needs Revoke for Remain to happen, even after a Remain-voting referendum.
Er, you do get that, right?
Oh I see you mean a post-referendum revoke. Yes that could happen. Sorry skim read your post and I see you said "referendum and revoke". Yes that could definitely happen. I give that a 10% chance.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in balmy May to conduct their campaigning.
Hordes of foot soldiers secreted amongst Carol singers
"A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting.
This would explain why MPs raised information suggesting Gov't is circumventing publishing the Yellowhammer docs"
Extraordinary.
There's a curious thing here. If the Yellowhammer documents really are that bad, then it's going to be an insanely brave government that lets No Deal Brexit happen. If anything goes significantly wrong, and individual politicians have been warned about it, the consequences don't bear thinking about.
If the preparations have reached the "odd bumps in the road" stage, why not publish? It would strengthen the PM's hand, and make it more likely for things to go well.
So apart from keeping up a bluff, because, who knows- Dominic Cummings may be able to scare the horse into singing- what's going on?
Dubravka Šuica (Croatia, EPP): Democracy and Demography + Vice Presidency. Šuica will also lead, from the Commission side, the work on the Conference on the Future of Europe.
Johannes Hahn (Austria, EPP) Budget and Administration
Didier Reynders (Belgium, ALDE): Justice, including rule of law
Mariya Gabriel (Bulgaria, EPP): Innovation and Youth.
Stella Kyriakides (Cyprus, EPP): Health
Kadri Simson (Estonia, ALDE): Energy.
Jutta Urpilainen (Finland, PES): International Partnerships.
Sylvie Goulard (France ALDE): Internal Market + responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space.
László Trócsányi (Hungary, EPP): Enlargement.
Phil Hogan (Ireland, EPP): Trade.
Paolo Gentiloni (Italy, PES): Economic and Financial Affairs.
Virginijus Sinkevičius (Lithuania): Environment and Oceans
Ylva Johansson (Sweden, PES): Home Affairs.
Yuk. Sounds like a proper federalist Government with a full portfolio.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
If ever we needed a reminder of the general ignorance of how Europe works in the minds of Leave voters we only have to look at your very silly post there. Federalism is just a preoccupation of a minority of Eurocrats and rabid Europhobics. A federal Europe is not going to happen as long as France remains a member.
France is one of the leading advocates of greater federalism.
Please don’t insult my intelligence or patronise me. The scope of competences and policy areas in the EU Commission there is vast and overlaps with most of the titles of briefs that our own domestic cabinet have here in the UK. The only obvious omission is education. Ever closer union is written into the treaties and there are moves afoot now to increase it in banking, social union and defence.
Are the cosmetics alone bad? Sure they are. The EU is obsessed with proudly flying the trappings of statehood as it is deaf to understanding how that fuels emotive gut euroscepticism in response as people feel their national identifies are threatened.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60% No Deal: 20% Deal: 10% Revoke: 5% New Corbyn-led govt: 3% Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40% Referendum and revoke: 30% No deal: 20% Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
Midnight 31st Oct:
Deal (including firm agreement requiring an extension to tie loose ends) 43% No Deal 5% Extension 45% Revoke 5% Black Swan 2%
I don't see him extending. I see him bringing a deal and daring the commons to vote against leaving (which would be what it would be), thus in a way turning the threat of no deal, now nullified, into a threat of not leaving.
Much to be said for your view. However is it not likely that the agreement will be so late that technical considerations will require a short extension to pass the necessary legislation; also the law compelling an extension means that by some means an extension without any particular purpose must be a real possibility. Maybe at 45% I have pitched it too high a chance.
If a/the deal passes then the extension is a technicality and would be granted as a matter of course by the EU and I put that under the "deal" heading. As to the extension for no good reason yes I think that is much lower than 45% although I'm sure the EU would agree it.
"A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting.
This would explain why MPs raised information suggesting Gov't is circumventing publishing the Yellowhammer docs"
Extraordinary.
There's a curious thing here. If the Yellowhammer documents really are that bad, then it's going to be an insanely brave government that lets No Deal Brexit happen. If anything goes significantly wrong, and individual politicians have been warned about it, the consequences don't bear thinking about.
If the preparations have reached the "odd bumps in the road" stage, why not publish? It would strengthen the PM's hand, and make it more likely for things to go well.
So apart from keeping up a bluff, because, who knows- Dominic Cummings may be able to scare the horse into singing- what's going on?
Maybe the dimmer members of Cabinet have not yet twigged the import of the last sentence of your first paragraph? Cummings doesn't care. He'll be off before any consequences.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in balmy May to conduct their campaigning.
Hordes of foot soldiers secreted amongst Carol singers
"Once in Royal David's City...."
"Piss off, Zios, we're voting Labour....."
Does the average Labour member even bother to do much delivery or canvassing ?
Data harvesting and elections. The Telegraph has this report which gets more interesting after the advertorial opening paragraphs, on how social media accounts are correlated and analysed to precisely target political messages.
When an email address is submitted to NationBuilder, for example, it pays a third party vendor to scour the internet for any public Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn profiles which are associated with that email address. The software then automatically hoovers up the person's name, their profile picture, their location (if they have one) and the web addresses of their accounts.
You will also be automatically tracked if you so much as like or retweet a post.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Doubtful, older voters vote rain or snow. By post too.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
I would expect many more postal votes.
My polling station is almost precisely as far as the nearest post box to my house !
Dunno if that's unusual...
My polling station is actually about 200 yards nearer!
Same here. Rain or snow, I shall be there, walking stick in hand. Might of course accidentally trip up Leave voting contemporaries!
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
It's not the voters who'd find a winter election irksome but the canvassers and footsloggers used to long days in barmy May to conduct their campaigning.
More to the point, people don't open their doors once it gets dark.
Dont forget all those russiian bots are used to working in the cold.
Exactly! And which prominent leaver spent years in Russia and has been described as a Leninist? Dominic Cummings.
Correct which is why he and Jezza are both kremlin moles trying to make the UK the 47th Oblast.
As that same majority is against the offer (twice) of a free and fair election which the governing party would be likely to lose.
If the opposition parties do not currently think a GE is in the national interest, they are under no obligation to allow one. Indeed, parties were elected on manifestos for a 5 year term and those parties are trying to enact those manifestos. No one party received a majority, and the gift of elections was taken away from the executive by the FTPA.
All of this is legal, democratic and procedurally hunky dory. FTPA is rubbish, don't get me wrong, but that is where we find ourselves. In other countries where elections due to split government are not an option, they either find a way to govern, or no legislation passes.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
Doubtful, older voters vote rain or snow. By post too.
Considering the demographics of voters, if there was a Nov / Dec election, will we be at the whims of the weather to decide our next government? I can imagine if there is snow, for instance, a lot of (especially older) people will not go out and vote.
I would expect many more postal votes.
My polling station is almost precisely as far as the nearest post box to my house !
Dunno if that's unusual...
My polling station is actually about 200 yards nearer!
Same here. Rain or snow, I shall be there, walking stick in hand. Might of course accidentally trip up Leave voting contemporaries!
Maybe I am blinded by my grandparents' frailty, they don't like leaving the house in cold rain for fear of falling and hurting themselves. That is the main reason they went to postal voting.
"A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting.
This would explain why MPs raised information suggesting Gov't is circumventing publishing the Yellowhammer docs"
Extraordinary.
There's a curious thing here. If the Yellowhammer documents really are that bad, then it's going to be an insanely brave government that lets No Deal Brexit happen. If anything goes significantly wrong, and individual politicians have been warned about it, the consequences don't bear thinking about.
If the preparations have reached the "odd bumps in the road" stage, why not publish? It would strengthen the PM's hand, and make it more likely for things to go well.
So apart from keeping up a bluff, because, who knows- Dominic Cummings may be able to scare the horse into singing- what's going on?
Maybe the dimmer members of Cabinet have not yet twigged the import of the last sentence of your first paragraph? Cummings doesn't care. He'll be off before any consequences.
The whole point about negotiation is not to show your hand, not to let others know your 'doors of the court' position, and not to waver until you have to. In this sense all negotiation is in little ways like the nuclear threat. You may think you know what you would do if....but whatever you do keep the other side wondering.
In my opinion Jezza as PM would have no intention whatever of using retaliatory nuclear weapons to obliterate Moscow and Boris has in fact no intention of leaving without a deal under any circumstances whatever. The difference is that I am sure I am right about Jezza and nukes, and I am not sure about Boris and No Deal. Which in the latter case is how it should be. Art 50 was drafted in such a way that it is the only tactic available to the smaller power (that's the UK).
Parliament has of course removed this only remaining tactic, which means I think that Boris will have to come back with basically TMs deal as the only option. If it can be confined to NI alone so much the better. The DUP richly deserve to lose in this battle in which they continue to play a uniformly negative, useless and self indulgent role.
"A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting.
This would explain why MPs raised information suggesting Gov't is circumventing publishing the Yellowhammer docs"
Extraordinary.
There's a curious thing here. If the Yellowhammer documents really are that bad, then it's going to be an insanely brave government that lets No Deal Brexit happen. If anything goes significantly wrong, and individual politicians have been warned about it, the consequences don't bear thinking about.
If the preparations have reached the "odd bumps in the road" stage, why not publish? It would strengthen the PM's hand, and make it more likely for things to go well.
So apart from keeping up a bluff, because, who knows- Dominic Cummings may be able to scare the horse into singing- what's going on?
Maybe the dimmer members of Cabinet have not yet twigged the import of the last sentence of your first paragraph? Cummings doesn't care. He'll be off before any consequences.
The whole point about negotiation is not to show your hand, not to let others know your 'doors of the court' position, and not to waver until you have to. In this sense all negotiation is in little ways like the nuclear threat. You may think you know what you would do if....but whatever you do keep the other side wondering.
In my opinion Jezza as PM would have no intention whatever of using retaliatory nuclear weapons to obliterate Moscow and Boris has in fact no intention of leaving without a deal under any circumstances whatever. The difference is that I am sure I am right about Jezza and nukes, and I am not sure about Boris and No Deal. Which in the latter case is how it should be. Art 50 was drafted in such a way that it is the only tactic available to the smaller power (that's the UK).
Parliament has of course removed this only remaining tactic, which means I think that Boris will have to come back with basically TMs deal as the only option. If it can be confined to NI alone so much the better. The DUP richly deserve to lose in this battle in which they continue to play a uniformly negative, useless and self indulgent role.
Except the EU are negotiating with all their cards on the table, meaning any time they see one of our cards (dutifully hidden from the public view by our own government) we see it anyway from them. They publish everything; they have to, the EU Parliament needs updating and they share everything.
There's a curious thing here. If the Yellowhammer documents really are that bad, then it's going to be an insanely brave government that lets No Deal Brexit happen. If anything goes significantly wrong, and individual politicians have been warned about it, the consequences don't bear thinking about.
If the preparations have reached the "odd bumps in the road" stage, why not publish? It would strengthen the PM's hand, and make it more likely for things to go well.
So apart from keeping up a bluff, because, who knows- Dominic Cummings may be able to scare the horse into singing- what's going on?
Maybe the dimmer members of Cabinet have not yet twigged the import of the last sentence of your first paragraph? Cummings doesn't care. He'll be off before any consequences.
The whole point about negotiation is not to show your hand, not to let others know your 'doors of the court' position, and not to waver until you have to. In this sense all negotiation is in little ways like the nuclear threat. You may think you know what you would do if....but whatever you do keep the other side wondering.
In my opinion Jezza as PM would have no intention whatever of using retaliatory nuclear weapons to obliterate Moscow and Boris has in fact no intention of leaving without a deal under any circumstances whatever. The difference is that I am sure I am right about Jezza and nukes, and I am not sure about Boris and No Deal. Which in the latter case is how it should be. Art 50 was drafted in such a way that it is the only tactic available to the smaller power (that's the UK).
Parliament has of course removed this only remaining tactic, which means I think that Boris will have to come back with basically TMs deal as the only option. If it can be confined to NI alone so much the better. The DUP richly deserve to lose in this battle in which they continue to play a uniformly negative, useless and self indulgent role.
Except the EU are negotiating with all their cards on the table, meaning any time they see one of our cards (dutifully hidden from the public view by our own government) we see it anyway from them. They publish everything; they have to, the EU Parliament needs updating and they share everything.
+1 The EU has made a much better fist of this being /open/, whilst we've made a total pig's ear of it by treating it like poker.
Spoiler alert: politics is not poker. It's not even a zero-sum game. It works best when politicians collaborate and listen instead of treating it like some knockout tournament of winner takes all.
Comments
But I think if it's requested, it'll come (especially it being clear a GE will follow). And if Johnson doesn't request, I'd expect him to be VONC'd PDQ in favour of someone who would ahead of revocation.
Nor would they describe as 'dictatorial' a government they are completely free to remove whenever they care to.
1) Would the Conservatives support a Brexit WA if it were proposed by an alternative Government? Hypothetically, an alternative Government gets an extension during which the WA is re-negotiated and the alternative Government offers it to the Commons, Would the Conservatives back it ?
2) Let's say we get to 2022 - we are still in the EU and the ensuing election fails to produce a Conservative majority. If another party came and said "we will support your domestic agenda but will not under any circumstances back a No Deal Brexit. Further, if you reject that we will do a deal with the Opposition which now supports revoking A50 and go into Government with them shutting you out for five years", what would you do, were you a Conservative MP, suggest to your leader?
I mean, all these "global trade deals" that we're supposedly going to do after Brexit - even if these were a good idea in principle, what makes people think British politicians would be any more competent or able to find consensus on how to go about getting them, than they were able to with the Brexit withdrawal agreement?
In December 2016, Sarah Olney LibDem overturned Zac Goldsmith's 23,000 majority. This time we only have to overturn his majority of 45. Bring it on.
I'd imagine it would fall just short but it would be very close. Govt and DUP against and would need about 12 to 13 labour or independent leavers. Someone like Clarke might abstain, in fact a number might, preferring referendum
Pro-ru
suspended.
Shall we take time out to make non-monetary wagers as to the likely state of play on midnight Oct 31st?
My guess:
Extension of 3 months (or some other period demanded by the EU): 60%
No Deal: 20%
Deal: 10%
Revoke: 5%
New Corbyn-led govt: 3%
Other Black swan: 2%
And also, the final final outcome of Brexit (this is harder)
Deal: 40%
Referendum and revoke: 30%
No deal: 20%
Indefinite extension unto eternity, or some other weirdness: 10%
Though Prince Charles is a recipient...
Deal: 100%.
But who knows when that might be.
As for nearer term, pre October 31st:
Deal: 75%
Referendum: 10%
No Deal: 5%
Extension: 10%
The only higher ones seem to be 1950, and 1951. The Feb 1950 seems to be the highest recorded in the era of universal suffrage. Not much postal voting or central heating in them days.
If ever we needed a reminder why we voted Leave.
Also interesting that you discount any chance or revoke, via referendum or otherwise.
Deal (including firm agreement requiring an extension to tie loose ends) 43%
No Deal 5%
Extension 45%
Revoke 5%
Black Swan 2%
http://i.imgur.com/dbA5ydt.png
Sustained No Deal guarantees it.
That Backstop is not going away...
chortle
My ultimates -
Deal 70%
No Deal 10%
No Brexit 20%
Dunno if that's unusual...
Noticeable that the two Feb elections represented a swing to the opposition. Perhaps those bleak nights take the shine off a government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–European_Union_relations#Opinion_polling
What's interesting in Switzerland and Norway is that both countries used to be ambivalent about joining the EU, and at some points they were actively keen. Now it is totally off the agenda.
Er, you do get that, right?
- Most campaign awareness and debate are delivered via social media, broadcast or email (not door-to-door canvassing or village hall hustings).
- Fewer people walk to polling stations (or at least *need* to if it's cold/dark/wet).
- Logistics of remote polling stations etc are less tricky in an era of mobile/electronic comms and more reliable vehicles.
- As someone else said up-thread.. more postal votes now.
Sure, there's still an element of "can't be arsed", but I'm not sure a warm day affects that as much as some believe.
And if we're on a Jan 30 deadline by the time an election comes, there *should* be a political imperative not to leave just a couple of weeks to sort it all out.
I still think we're heading to election city pretty sharpish once the Commons is back. I just don't see enough sticking power in either Boris or any caretaker government to do more than can-kick without a new parliament.
Deal 30%
No deal 10%
Extension 0%
1.More people have postal votes than ever before and a significant amout of over 65s do which will mitigate any weather issues.
2.Older voters tend to vote earlier in the day e.g when it's lighter and younger later in the day when it's got dark and so more likely to dissuade them from going out in the dark.
3. This is a high stakes election and so I would think if you plan to vote you will vote, whatever the weather..
All this is before you get into the studies which show weather has littler or only marginal impact on turnout and outcomes.
FWIW I think hardcore remainers will turn out at very high levels and will vote overwhelmingly LD whatever the weather/date of the election. Over 65s will turn out as higher rates than the general population as always and will vote significantly for the Tories. Its the soft remainers and those who are not that politically engaged who are likely to be put off by timing and weather and I guess they would vote more Lab than anything but who knows.
"Piss off, Zios, we're voting Labour....."
If the preparations have reached the "odd bumps in the road" stage, why not publish? It would strengthen the PM's hand, and make it more likely for things to go well.
So apart from keeping up a bluff, because, who knows- Dominic Cummings may be able to scare the horse into singing- what's going on?
Please don’t insult my intelligence or patronise me. The scope of competences and policy areas in the EU Commission there is vast and overlaps with most of the titles of briefs that our own domestic cabinet have here in the UK. The only obvious omission is education. Ever closer union is written into the treaties and there are moves afoot now to increase it in banking, social union and defence.
Are the cosmetics alone bad? Sure they are. The EU is obsessed with proudly flying the trappings of statehood as it is deaf to understanding how that fuels emotive gut euroscepticism in response as people feel their national identifies are threatened.
That’s part of the problem.
e.g. this tweet
https://twitter.com/quigley_steven/status/1171415505170771968?s=20
Comes from this basically non-existent account
https://twitter.com/quigley_steven
Odd.
EDIT: And now the tweet has been deleted. Even odder.
When an email address is submitted to NationBuilder, for example, it pays a third party vendor to scour the internet for any public Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn profiles which are associated with that email address. The software then automatically hoovers up the person's name, their profile picture, their location (if they have one) and the web addresses of their accounts.
You will also be automatically tracked if you so much as like or retweet a post.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/09/07/inside-nationbuilder-californian-data-targeting-start-up-delivered/
Rain or snow, I shall be there, walking stick in hand. Might of course accidentally trip up Leave voting contemporaries!
All hail Vlad.
All of this is legal, democratic and procedurally hunky dory. FTPA is rubbish, don't get me wrong, but that is where we find ourselves. In other countries where elections due to split government are not an option, they either find a way to govern, or no legislation passes.
NEW THREAD
Are they worried they may actually lose?
In my opinion Jezza as PM would have no intention whatever of using retaliatory nuclear weapons to obliterate Moscow and Boris has in fact no intention of leaving without a deal under any circumstances whatever. The difference is that I am sure I am right about Jezza and nukes, and I am not sure about Boris and No Deal. Which in the latter case is how it should be. Art 50 was drafted in such a way that it is the only tactic available to the smaller power (that's the UK).
Parliament has of course removed this only remaining tactic, which means I think that Boris will have to come back with basically TMs deal as the only option. If it can be confined to NI alone so much the better. The DUP richly deserve to lose in this battle in which they continue to play a uniformly negative, useless and self indulgent role.
The EU has made a much better fist of this being /open/, whilst we've made a total pig's ear of it by treating it like poker.
Spoiler alert: politics is not poker. It's not even a zero-sum game. It works best when politicians collaborate and listen instead of treating it like some knockout tournament of winner takes all.