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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No-vember election. A betting tip

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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
  • Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    There is no reason to think a VONC in BoZo will pass.

    If it did, it would mean an election because Parliament is prorogued afterwards and therefore there is no time to form another government.
    A VONC only becomes priority business if it is moved by the LOTO. If anyone else moves one the Speaker will not call it forward for debate - he did not call the one the LDs moved a few months ago.
    Doesn’t the government (usually) control the business of the Commons?
    Yes - and in the past when the LotO has called a vote of confidence the government has made time available- usually the following day. But when other parties tried to VONC the government the Speaker has told them to get lost and the government didn’t make time available.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    More seriously, have people been following the US President's obsession with Hurricane Dorian and Alabama?

    Well, a US lawyer friend of mine sent this:

    18 U.S. Code § 2074: “whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both.”

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    A sitting Tory Government calling No Confidence in itself to govern would be embarrassing for the Opposition.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
    A bit unprecedented and unedifying. A PM in court trying to justify his non-compliance. Not a good look, piled on his previous contemptuous behaviour to parliament.
    Well they've already tried to get him to court and failed. Judging by today its Gina Miller and John Major who are getting the backlash rather than Boris. It's hard to see how they could force an extension with the EU through the courts.
    You are rather missing the point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890



    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.

    This is what I believe our constitution effectively states too
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.

    https://twitter.com/SSheil/status/1169939874948046848

  • And Ken? And Grieve? Soubry? Wollaston?

    If that was how Boris got his election - by using their animosity against him - even his fiercest detractors would have to admit, that is fucking A1 brilliant, Mr. Cummins.....

    They were totally going to fall for this devilishly cunning trap but now you've gone and given the game away
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Indeed that is the Catch 22.

    Richard N way, way ahead on this point several evenings back.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.

    https://twitter.com/SSheil/status/1169939874948046848
    Well yeah, we all know what Boris said. But that wasn't my point.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:

    Brom said:

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act.

    Apart from staying out of jail
    give your head a wobble. Jail! you FBPE lot are mad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Can you explain this please?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rcs1000 said:

    More seriously, have people been following the US President's obsession with Hurricane Dorian and Alabama?

    Well, a US lawyer friend of mine sent this:

    18 U.S. Code § 2074: “whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both.”

    Yes, I heard the same on a podcast. He's a crime machine, is the current president.
    Critics will say who cares, but this matters hugely. Perhaps there are friends with business interests in Alabama he was trying to help -- storm shutters suppliers, that kind of thing.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Of course if no election until spring and we are out of the EU - then Jezza will look a right twat.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Scott_P said:
    @HYUFD has assured us that Boris will refuse to give it Royal Assent remember.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    edited September 2019
    Tabman...

    Indeed a government that can enact only those policies that are moderate and sensible with widespread appeal, and cannot be extreme or hyperactive.

    Sounds bloody perfect.

    Where do I sign up?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    blueblue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What precisely is the problem with a winter election ? The old dears tend to vote postally these days.

    A really bad day on Election Day in weather terms could impact turnout and casts questions about the legitimacy of the result.

    Just needs it to be really wet, windy, very cold, or snowy and it’ll be anarchy particularly in rural seats.

    Could impact the ability of people manning the polling stations.
    So what? I'll bet on Conservatives and energized Leavers being able to find their way to a polling station in the dark any day...
    I believe the wealthier Leavers will send their butlers... :)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    edited September 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman...

    Indeed a government that can enact only those policies that are moderate and sensible with widespread appeal, and cannot be extreme or hyperactive.

    Sounds bloody perfect.

    Where do I sign up?

    Before long well be having PR or somesuch ...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Great post, Alastair.

    I’ve done the same. My bigger play is laying 2019, and staying neutral(ish) on December.

    A solid value bet IMO.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    Streeter said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    Any letter written by the PM has legal significance. The Bill just mandates one particular letter; it says nothing about writing others.
    Asking for an Article 50 extension is a formal process that should be done under the constitutional arrangements of the member state.

    This bill will now become part of those arrangements. The letter is the letter.
    What's wrong with an additional letter saying the extension will get us nowhere, and we'll be in exactly the same position three months later?
    The EU already know that.
    So what's the point?
    Because they’ll probably give us an extension anyway.

    If they don’t well, that’s another issue isn’t it.
    No, what is the point of an extension?
    To explode Cummings’ mind.
    It might be worth doing for that alone... :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    edited September 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Can you explain this please?
    If he takes a (paid) job from the Crown, he can no longer be an MP, or indeed the PM. It would be as if he had died, and the Queen would need to appoint a new PM. (And I do not believe she would be allowed to take advice from him.)

    Edit to add: Crown Steward to the Chiltern Hundreds is a paid office from the Crown.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    Schrodinger's Public
  • Scott_P said:
    I think Cummings is trying to play a kind of Jedi mind trick here: make the masses think they really, really want a general election even though they hitherto didn't. It might work. Remember, absolutely no one wanted a No Deal Brexit until a handful of politicians designated it the one true creed, and it spiralled from there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    At the moment I'm disputing the claim the public "absolutely" don't want one. That's just not true. There's plurality support for it, but not majority.
  • Tabman said:

    On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    Id imagine elections in December or August would produce quite different results purely from the impact of daylight and weather on mood and who is away on holiday.

    Not sure who it is good or bad for in current circumstances though!
    You'd think more Tories away in December?
    Yes. Thinking about it a bit more, around a quarter of the country say they suffer to an extent from Seasonal Affective Disorder, so on average people will be more depressed, less optimistic, and this disproportionately impacts women.

    So I think that would be bad for whoever is in govt at the time and bad for selling BJs optimistic vision.

    Instinctively (probably completely spuriously as without any evidence) I wonder if it might also move the rural/urban turnout towards urban areas, particularly if the weather is bad.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Can you explain this please?
    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/p11.pdf
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Can you explain this please?
    If he takes a (paid) job from the Crown, he can no longer be an MP, or indeed the PM. It would be as if he had died, and the Queen would need to appoint a new PM. (And I do not believe she would be allowed to take advice from him.)

    Edit to add: Crown Steward to the Chiltern Hundreds is a paid office from the Crown.
    Are you sure about that? It stops you being an MP, but does it really stop you being the PM?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    The chances of weather-related disruption are far higher in winter than in spring/summer as any fule kno.



    As could one in January or February (more likely given historical snowfall). As could one in June be affected by flooding. If we need an election, and we do, then worrying about one day's weather is ridiculous. Postal votes exist and can be applied for right this moment if voters are worried about the risk.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    New balls please
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.
    I don't think that's true. There are some things only the PM can do (launch the nukes, attend EUCO, etc) but otherwise govt ticks nicely on without one. You can survive not having a PM for quite some time.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    But Jezza is chicken.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    Beautifully written article @AlastairMeeks

    The price has shortened up though! :#


  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.
    I don't think that's true. There are some things only the PM can do (launch the nukes, attend EUCO, etc) but otherwise govt ticks nicely on without one. You can survive not having a PM for quite some time.
    Agreed. There's no instant transfer. I believe after every election where power changes hands, we are left without a PM for some minutes.
  • viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.
    I don't think that's true. There are some things only the PM can do (launch the nukes, attend EUCO, etc) but otherwise govt ticks nicely on without one. You can survive not having a PM for quite some time.
    Without a PM there is no government. So no...it wouldn't.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    What if Boris draws a childish sketch of macron’s genitals over the letter before sending it? I can’t think of many better ideas right now, detoxifying Corbyn by going into an election with him as sitting PM seems almost as bad as the impeachment route.

    Good to see that your post after self-imposed exile is raising the intellectual bar.

    ;)
    A day watching helicopter videos with a toddler, rather than Beth Rigby on Sky and people on the internet being angry, gives a useful sense of perspective.
    Which helicopters?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    Lol, hes not going to prorogue having said its undemocratic and a coup.
    And Boris calls the VONC in him which takes precedence over all other business
  • On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    The chances of weather-related disruption are far higher in winter than in spring/summer as any fule kno.



    As could one in January or February (more likely given historical snowfall). As could one in June be affected by flooding. If we need an election, and we do, then worrying about one day's weather is ridiculous. Postal votes exist and can be applied for right this moment if voters are worried about the risk.
    Postal votes?

    In December?

    No.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    What if Boris draws a childish sketch of macron’s genitals over the letter before sending it? I can’t think of many better ideas right now, detoxifying Corbyn by going into an election with him as sitting PM seems almost as bad as the impeachment route.

    Good to see that your post after self-imposed exile is raising the intellectual bar.

    ;)
    A day watching helicopter videos with a toddler, rather than Beth Rigby on Sky and people on the internet being angry, gives a useful sense of perspective.
    Which helicopters?
    Blippi on youtube
  • Tabman said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    Schrodinger's Public
    Schrodinger is so old hat. These days, it is either String Theory or Tegmark's Level 4 universe...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    I think Cummings is trying to play a kind of Jedi mind trick here: make the masses think they really, really want a general election even though they hitherto didn't. It might work. Remember, absolutely no one wanted a No Deal Brexit until a handful of politicians designated it the one true creed, and it spiralled from there.
    The JFC logo and cartoon reminds me of indie band t-shirts from the 90s
  • Good, well-argued article from Alistair. Clearly many factors mitigating against a 2019 poll.

    However, on the flipside:

    Limping on with this parliament into the recess, presumably with no resolution as to what comes after an extension, and then straight into an election a few days before deadline, is exactly the same situation we potentially have (or had) at the end of October (and to some extent last March): No Deal remains the default on Jan 30, everyone in London is parroting election slogans, the EU has no idea whether the so-called PM can do anything.

    Given which - and the way we responded to Tusk's helpful hint "do not waste this time" in the spring - I think there's rather more urgency if Jan 30 is the extension offered.

    - There needs to be an election based on actual desired outcomes (rather than "Brexit means Brexit" or "a Labour workers' Brexit" or whatever old nonsense we had last time).

    - There needs to be slack in the programme to reconcile those outcomes in some sort of coalition discussion (of whichever flavour).

    - There needs to be time to tweak/rewrite the withdrawal agreement and political declaration to reflect the new situation (presumably similar to the existing WA, though if there's a non-Tory govt there might be a softer exit which would solve the backstop).

    - Then it all needs legislating before Jan 30.

    (And that's without any second referendum/people's convention/other faffing device)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:


    Scott_P said:
    I think Cummings is trying to play a kind of Jedi mind trick here: make the masses think they really, really want a general election even though they hitherto didn't. It might work. Remember, absolutely no one wanted a No Deal Brexit until a handful of politicians designated it the one true creed, and it spiralled from there.
    The JFC logo and cartoon reminds me of indie band t-shirts from the 90s
    Issue might be the posh remainers in Islington might not have heard of KFC - they need a Fortnam and Mason equivalent.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    It doesn't want one but you could argue it recognizes one is necessary
    I dont want my leg cut off, but if there's gangrene.. ...
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    edited September 2019

    On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    Will we managed in 1910 and 1923 and the latter, when most people will have walked to the polling station, had a turnout n of 71%
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited September 2019
    Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    nunuone said:


    I cannot see the SNP *ever* voting that they have confidence in a Tory PM.

    Unless hell has well and truly frozen over.

    If you assume (working assumption) that the current Conservative MPs all voted for an election (ie no confidence) - that is 289.

    (I'm assuming tellers balance out, so forget them for now).

    Labour and LibDems and PC and Greens gets you to 268. Independent Group for Change - I can't see them being reliable. Probably just want their pay-off. But lets add them. 273. It also assumes all Labour MPs with the whip vote to have confidence in Boris. Mann? Hoey? There's going to be some abstentions, but for now, assume they are all onbaord.

    Assume the SNP sit it out. Why would they be the ones to save Boris's bacon? An early election = an early mandate for another Referendum. Maybe even a mandate for independence without one. On current pollng, they add to their number. If Boris gets no majority, they are in the driving seat of any coalition. So that is 35 votes out the equation.

    That leaves 35 independents - and the DUP.

    The DUP would be key. Why would they want to give up their leverage early? They won't. They will need to be bought off. I keep banging on about it, but give them the detailed feasability for a bridge-tunnel combo to Scotland. And a commitment to build it if that shows it can be done, Beaufort Dyke and its mass of munitions notwithtanding.

    Let's say they are bought off. That would be 299. The rebel alliance need to get 300. (Maybe only 299 if the vote of the Speaker is to save Boris. Gloriously exquisite notion. Let's ignore that for now.)

    So that leaves the rebels needing 26 votes from the remaining 35. Charlie Elphicke is on the independents list. Let's give him to the Boris group. 27 needed from 34.

    Lets give the rebels Williamson and O'Mara. They are still Labour to all intents and purposes. 25 needed from 32.

    Then you are into the unknowns. Lady Hermon? Kelvin Hopkins - he is handing over the baton to his daughter in Luton, so why would he worry about an election? John Woodcock? He won't do Labour any favours, but it may be political suicide.....

    And then there are the very recent ex-Tories. In their hearts, they might hate Boris and Corbyn equally. Some will be unforgiving. But man, is it going to hurt, voting that they have faith in Boris. Clarke, Hammond, Greening, Stewart - they are going to need industrial strength nose pegs. And then there are those who were more regretful in being removed from the Party. I can certainly imagine there will be half a dozen who can make their peace with the Party - for a seat in the Lords in the dissolution honours list, maybe even back as candidates.

    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    Schrodinger's Public
    Schrodinger is so old hat. These days, it is either String Theory or Tegmark's Level 4 universe...
    My physics knowledge is 30 years out of date :-)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Cyclefree said:

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
    A bit unprecedented and unedifying. A PM in court trying to justify his non-compliance. Not a good look, piled on his previous contemptuous behaviour to parliament.
    Well they've already tried to get him to court and failed. Judging by today its Gina Miller and John Major who are getting the backlash rather than Boris. It's hard to see how they could force an extension with the EU through the courts.
    You are rather missing the point.
    I think that the PM has said (through the mouths of others) that they - the government - obey the law, and that he won't ask for an extension. In all sorts of ways these two statements could be consistent, eg by resigning before he has to act, or by getting lawyers/courts to find fault with the process which appears to be binding the government.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793

    rcs1000 said:

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Can you explain this please?
    You cannot resign as a MP. However, you can disqualify yourself by taking an office of profit under the Crown. The office of the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds is such a post. If you accept the post you stop being a MP, then you resign the Stewardship and leave it vacant for the next guy.
  • Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    Schrodinger's Public
    Schrodinger is so old hat. These days, it is either String Theory or Tegmark's Level 4 universe...
    My physics knowledge is 30 years out of date :-)
    So is mine, but I try to keep up :)
  • Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    Out of interest, if there was no sanction laid down in the new law, on what grounds would he be arrested?

    Genuine question. It occurs to me that it's not actually been made a crime for Johnson to disobey Parliament's instruction as far as I know. Therefore presumably a complete ignoral of same would have to be JR'ed?
  • I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    Lol, hes not going to prorogue having said its undemocratic and a coup.
    And Boris calls the VONC in him which takes precedence over all other business
    By the way.. could a VONC take precedence over the Queen's speech?

    And if successful, presumably JC can put himself forward for the consequent VOC the following day if he thinks he's the man?

    These would cut out quite a lot of the delay in Alistair's scenarios.
  • isam said:

    Beautifully written article @AlastairMeeks

    The price has shortened up though! :#


    At least no one can accuse me of pumping and dumping!
  • Scott_P said:
    Here we go. Has Cummings managed to manipulate the royal advice so HM refuses to give it?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A December election will coincide perfectly with Corbyns brother and the expresses annual prediction of the worst.winter.ever
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Scott_P said:
    @HYUFD has assured us that Boris will refuse to give it Royal Assent remember.
    LOL

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    Out of interest, if there was no sanction laid down in the new law, on what grounds would he be arrested?

    Genuine question. It occurs to me that it's not actually been made a crime for Johnson to disobey Parliament's instruction as far as I know. Therefore presumably a complete ignoral of same would have to be JR'ed?
    Contempt of Parliament / Contempt of Court was the consensus here the other day.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077



    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.

    Not quite - there is 14 days in which another Government could be created.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793

    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.
    I don't think that's true. There are some things only the PM can do (launch the nukes, attend EUCO, etc) but otherwise govt ticks nicely on without one. You can survive not having a PM for quite some time.
    Without a PM there is no government. So no...it wouldn't.
    No. The Government survives the PM. The PM's successor appoints the new government, but the old one remains in existence until he replaces it. What do you think happens if a PM dies?
  • TGOHF said:

    isam said:


    Scott_P said:
    I think Cummings is trying to play a kind of Jedi mind trick here: make the masses think they really, really want a general election even though they hitherto didn't. It might work. Remember, absolutely no one wanted a No Deal Brexit until a handful of politicians designated it the one true creed, and it spiralled from there.
    The JFC logo and cartoon reminds me of indie band t-shirts from the 90s
    Issue might be the posh remainers in Islington might not have heard of KFC - they need a Fortnam and Mason equivalent.
    I take it you have never been to Islington? It is in the top 10 across the country for fast food outlets per head of population and KFC would be above average quality.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729

    Scott_P said:
    I think Cummings is trying to play a kind of Jedi mind trick here: make the masses think they really, really want a general election even though they hitherto didn't. It might work. Remember, absolutely no one wanted a No Deal Brexit until a handful of politicians designated it the one true creed, and it spiralled from there.
    I think people are missing the point. Boris is explicitly saying he wants an election now to get Brexit done and dusted. The voters he needs will subscribe to that. WHat he said before doesn't really matter much.

    Remember - the danger to BJ is Farage attacking him on failing to come out on 30 Oct - and hence haemorrhaging Leave votes. Therefore he absolutely has to make sure Corbyn owns the delay of the General Election.

    I think, FWIW, the "rebel alliance" may be being a bit too smarty pants over this, the public will get sick of the procrastination and sympathise with Boris - or, at least, the Leave inclined section which Boris needs to unite behind him.

    If we end up, for no very good reason, with an election dragged out until December, the frustration may well mount.

    The Cumming/Boris ploy for an early election may have flopped but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will disadvantage them.

    The rule so far seems to be that clever plans blow up.
  • I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    Lol, hes not going to prorogue having said its undemocratic and a coup.
    And Boris calls the VONC in him which takes precedence over all other business
    By the way.. could a VONC take precedence over the Queen's speech?

    And if successful, presumably JC can put himself forward for the consequent VOC the following day if he thinks he's the man?

    These would cut out quite a lot of the delay in Alistair's scenarios.
    I think the Queen's Speech comes first, since she had to cancel the grouse shooting or whatever?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    moonshine said:

    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    What if Boris draws a childish sketch of macron’s genitals over the letter before sending it? I can’t think of many better ideas right now, detoxifying Corbyn by going into an election with him as sitting PM seems almost as bad as the impeachment route.

    Good to see that your post after self-imposed exile is raising the intellectual bar.

    ;)
    A day watching helicopter videos with a toddler, rather than Beth Rigby on Sky and people on the internet being angry, gives a useful sense of perspective.
    Which helicopters?
    Blippi on youtube
    Thank you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
  • isam said:

    Beautifully written article @AlastairMeeks

    The price has shortened up though! :#


    At least no one can accuse me of pumping and dumping!
    This govt could make a go of it and get plenty of people still backing them on here!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:


    Scott_P said:
    I think Cummings is trying to play a kind of Jedi mind trick here: make the masses think they really, really want a general election even though they hitherto didn't. It might work. Remember, absolutely no one wanted a No Deal Brexit until a handful of politicians designated it the one true creed, and it spiralled from there.
    The JFC logo and cartoon reminds me of indie band t-shirts from the 90s
    Issue might be the posh remainers in Islington might not have heard of KFC - they need a Fortnam and Mason equivalent.
    I take it you have never been to Islington? It is in the top 10 across the country for fast food outlets per head of population and KFC would be above average quality.
    TGOKFC is just trolling in a way s/he suspects of being clever and wittily dry.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    And Boris can always take the Chiltern Hundreds.
    Can you explain this please?
    You cannot resign as a MP. However, you can disqualify yourself by taking an office of profit under the Crown. The office of the Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds is such a post. If you accept the post you stop being a MP, then you resign the Stewardship and leave it vacant for the next guy.
    You don't resign, you stay in part into the next holder takes over. The current holder is Barry McElduff (a delicious irony in him holding an office of profit under the crown) who will no doubt be relieved to relinquish it.
  • Scott_P said:
    Here we go. Has Cummings managed to manipulate the royal advice so HM refuses to give it?
    The 5 dimensional hyperworm that is Cummings has unzipped the flesh-like container and is now occupying the former body of HMQ.

    Bwa-hah-hah-hah-ha! (evil laugh in text format)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    I'm bet against 2019 in its entirity right now. It's a rare bet I wouldn't mind losing though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    eek said:



    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.

    Not quite - there is 14 days in which another Government could be created.
    But not if Parliament is immediately prorogued.....
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited September 2019
    eek said:



    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.

    Not quite - there is 14 days in which another Government could be created.
    Which is a risk for BoJo if some clever chaps back his ruse to no-confidence himself.. then switch sides and back a Corbyn/Harman/Clarke/Jo Johnson/Kermit the Frog interim.

    (Though this suggests a level of opposition co-ordination which I'm not convinced is present)
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    viewcode said:


    What do you think happens if a PM dies?

    I believe, according to what Boris suggested, we remain in the EU...
  • Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
    Exactly.

    The mps are unfit for purpose. Clear them all out now
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    nunuone said:


    I cannot see the SNP *ever* voting that they have confidence in a Tory PM.

    Unless hell has well and truly frozen over.

    If you assume (working assumption) that the current Conservative MPs all voted for an election (ie no confidence) - that is 289.

    (I'm assuming tellers balance out, so forget them for now).

    Labour and LibDems and PC and Greens gets you to 268. Independent Group for Change - I can't see them being reliable. Probably just want their pay-off. But lets add them. 273. It also assumes all Labour MPs with the whip vote to have confidence in Boris. Mann? Hoey? There's going to be some abstentions, but for now, assume they are all onbaord.

    Assume the SNP sit it out. Why would they be the ones to save Boris's bacon? An early election = an early mandate for another Referendum. Maybe even a mandate for independence without one. On current pollng, they add to their number. If Boris gets no majority, they are in the driving seat of any coalition. So that is 35 votes out the equation.

    That leaves 35 independents - and the DUP.

    The DUP would be key. Why would they want to give up their leverage early? They won't. They will need to be bought off. I keep banging on about it, but give them the detailed feasability for a bridge-tunnel combo to Scotland. And a commitment to build it if that shows it can be done, Beaufort Dyke and its mass of munitions notwithtanding.


    So that leaves the rebels needing 26 votes from the remaining 35. Charlie Elphicke is on the independents list. Let's give him to the Boris group. 27 needed from 34.

    Lets give the rebels Williamson and O'Mara. They are still Labour to all intents and purposes. 25 needed from 32.

    Then you are into the unknowns. Lady Hermon? Kelvin Hopkins - he is handing over the baton to his daughter in Luton, so why would he worry about an election? John Woodcock? He won't do Labour any favours, but it may be political suicide.....

    And then there are the very recent ex-Tories. In their hearts, they might hate Boris and Corbyn equally. Some will be unforgiving. But man, is it going to hurt, voting that they have faith in Boris. Clarke, Hammond, Greening, Stewart - they are going to need industrial strength nose pegs. And then there are those who were more regretful in being removed from the Party. I can certainly imagine there will be half a dozen who can make their peace with the Party - for a seat in the Lords in the dissolution honours list, maybe even back as candidates.

    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.
    He basically needs to perm 32 from the DUP, ex Tory 21, independents and Change
    If the SNP sit it out he only needs 13 from the above, DUP plus elphicke, mann, hoey
    I think the Tory ex 21 would abstain, especially if he 'builds bridges' this weekend as he hinted
  • Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
    Nothing Corbyn does seems to make any sense to me. If you shout"Election" it looks like he cannot resist shouting "Yes! Yes! Yes!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    A sitting Tory Government calling No Confidence in itself to govern would be embarrassing for the Opposition.

    Only from the PB Tories.

    Only on PB.

    The whole situation is already embarrassing so it wouldn't make much difference.
  • Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
    There is a huge difference between delivering no deal when it was backed by 1.8% of the electorate at the last election with 80% backing a deal/smooth orderly exit compared to if the country has actually voted for it. There would be no need to block it in those circumstances, and the bill does not do that as could be repealed or changed.

    The timing of an election is no longer up to any one party, if the govt have miscalculated whether they would get one or not, that is just normal politics, tough luck on them.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Scott_P said:
    Here we go. Has Cummings managed to manipulate the royal advice so HM refuses to give it?
    I very much doubt the Clerk to the Parliaments is brushing up his best "La Reyne s'avisera".
  • The rule so far seems to be that clever plans blow up.

    IMNSHO, that has always been the rule
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Tabman said:

    Tabman said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought the public were more in favour of having an election than not? That isn't consistent with them "absolutely" not wanting one.
    Boris said they absolutely didn’t want one. Are you suggesting he wasn’t being truthful or was he just mistaken?
    We've been over this many times. A recent yougov poll showed there being more support for having one than not having one, but it was quite close. Neither of these options received 50%. Given how finely balanced it was, I don't think you could argue that the public "absolutely" do not want an election (that would imply some low figure like <10% want one).</p>
    But Boris said that the public does not want one. Why would he say that?
    Because that's also true. I think it was around 40% wanted an election.
    The public simultaneously does and doesn’t want an election?

    Is this similar to the public simultaneously wanting to Leave the EU and Remain in the EU?
    Schrodinger's Public
    Schrodinger is so old hat. These days, it is either String Theory or Tegmark's Level 4 universe...
    My physics knowledge is 30 years out of date :-)
    So is mine, but I try to keep up :)
    It's hard enough keeping up with political events!
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,562
    Funny how the country is both willing and ready to go through a no deal Brexit, but unable to get to the polling stations after the clocks go back.

  • eek said:



    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.

    Not quite - there is 14 days in which another Government could be created.
    But not if Parliament is immediately prorogued.....
    Technically I don't think parliament needs to be sitting to let Her Majesty know that there's another viable PM, they could all sign a letter, or gather and vote in another location, or wander down to the palace and wave...
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    eek said:



    It would be close - but I think Boris gets No confidenced - and the process starts for the election.

    Not quite - there is 14 days in which another Government could be created.
    But not if Parliament is immediately prorogued.....
    The 14 day period continues whether Parliament stands prorogued or not.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,609
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.
    I don't think that's true. There are some things only the PM can do (launch the nukes, attend EUCO, etc) but otherwise govt ticks nicely on without one. You can survive not having a PM for quite some time.
    Without a PM there is no government. So no...it wouldn't.
    No. The Government survives the PM. The PM's successor appoints the new government, but the old one remains in existence until he replaces it. What do you think happens if a PM dies?
    I was going to say what about the deputy PM (who would presumably be able to do PM duties if the PM ceased to be) but then discovered we don't have one and haven't since Clegg, apparently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    edited September 2019

    Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
    Exactly.

    The mps are unfit for purpose. Clear them all out now
    I'm coming round to the view that anybody who wants to be an MP, that should be grounds for excluding them.

    We should have members of the public, dobbed in for a two year term - and then they can never sit again. Same kinda thing as Jury Service....
  • Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
    Exactly.

    The mps are unfit for purpose. Clear them all out now
    No Deal can only be off the table for October 31 (unless someone really takes the piss, VONCing BJ then revoking!). Just as in the spring it was only off the table for March 29/April 12. This is where the opposition hasn't yet developed a position beyond what they *don't* want.

    After that, if the public back Boris with an overall majority on a "Build a Wall at Dover And Another One On The Irish Border" ticket, he has pretty much carte blanche.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited September 2019

    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic

    There doesn’t have to be a vote of confidence in the new Prime Minister as far as I’m aware.

    Jeremy can simply prorogue Parliament to prevent a VONC. :)
    Lol, hes not going to prorogue having said its undemocratic and a coup.
    And Boris calls the VONC in him which takes precedence over all other business
    By the way.. could a VONC take precedence over the Queen's speech?

    And if successful, presumably JC can put himself forward for the consequent VOC the following day if he thinks he's the man?

    These would cut out quite a lot of the delay in Alistair's scenarios.
    The EU Council meeting starts the following day so utter chaos and who is going to submit the extension request on the 19th in view of the 14 days Boris has to try to form a government, taking us to the 29th October !!!!!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Is this "code" for "Corbyn is wetting himself for the chance to fight an election"?


    How can you take No Deal off the table if a party goes into an October election saying it would still impement it in the absence of a new deal with the EU, and the voters back that position with a majority?
    I think it was shorthand for "take the possibly of the post-election government not being able to prevent No Deal off the table". Obviously there's nothing anyone can do to take a hypothetical pro-No Deal future parliament from doing it except for passing a deal.
This discussion has been closed.