I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
Really? Cant see it
Yes you will see 40% plus for Johnson which is why he won’t and shouldn’t get his election. There needs to be more time for those willing to think the issues through to do so rather than the knee jerk reaction which is unable to differentiate between tories who voted against the WA and those that voted against no deal. They can’t all be traitors
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
Good for you making an actual prediction. HYUFD keeps referring to this weekend's polls bit is careful to be vague enough that even if the Tories lead is cut in half in all of them he can still say "well they're ahead!"
I expect Con to be up. I've also put a figure on it, if there is no election agreed Monday then come the end of October* I expect the Tories to be polling around the 40% mark and I don't think it will fall after Halloween.
* Maybe not this weekend, not everything filters through immediately.
👍
Personally I don't feel confident enough to make a prediction of the effect of recent events on polls. Up, down or stable all seem plausible
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
Good for you making an actual prediction. HYUFD keeps referring to this weekend's polls bit is careful to be vague enough that even if the Tories lead is cut in half in all of them he can still say "well they're ahead!"
I expect Con to be up. I've also put a figure on it, if there is no election agreed Monday then come the end of October* I expect the Tories to be polling around the 40% mark and I don't think it will fall after Halloween.
* Maybe not this weekend, not everything filters through immediately.
I don't think Boris will be harmed by the opposition's maneauvers, but I suspect the Conservatives have a ceiling in the high 30s. Their problem is geting the balance between the Never Dealers and the We'd Prefer A Deal Please right.
So the psychological advantage that England were predicted to have over Australia turned out to be more hope than reality.
Yet given that Smith has to have a bad game at some point then England might do well at the Oval (often a good ground for them) if they can hold out for a draw this weekend.
If.
Bradman had very few bad games indeed. Smith is one of the few batsmen that you would even mention in the same breath.
If there is one ground in England that would suit the Aussies it is The Oval. England should draw ok at Old Trafford, but I don't see them winning the final Test. Nor do they particularly deserve to. The Aussies have been the better side.
A bad game is relative - a pair of 20s would put a lot of pressure on the other Australian batsmen.
And there's always the luck factor.
I think this series has shown had dependent England have become on Jimmy Anderson.
Cummings has got 48 hours to come up with a truly astonishing riposte to the current impasse.
JFC wasn't the riposte?
I think the current impasse is electoral gold for the Tories. Long may it drag on.
The problem is that by the time we actually get to an election it will have been disproven. That is, unless there's a vonc passed by the Tories themselves and other opposition parties than Labour but I don't see why that would happen
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
Good for you making an actual prediction. HYUFD keeps referring to this weekend's polls bit is careful to be vague enough that even if the Tories lead is cut in half in all of them he can still say "well they're ahead!"
I expect Con to be up. I've also put a figure on it, if there is no election agreed Monday then come the end of October* I expect the Tories to be polling around the 40% mark and I don't think it will fall after Halloween.
* Maybe not this weekend, not everything filters through immediately.
The issue for the Conservatives is whether they will strike a deal with BXP. The signs are that the LDs are eating some Labour vote but Mr. Johnson needs to be aware he cannot, as someone said yesterday, “out Farage, Farage” so a deal with BXP may be inevitable.
Given the historic enmity between Messrs Cummings and Farage I think Mr Johnson may cut Mr. Cummings trace sooner rather than later.
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
No need to apologise at all. Say what you think you should say. For what its worth you're correct. But then I said 'the young' , and 'the youth', so obviously I'm not so young myself.
Who's this 'Boring' chap?
Well not you - that's agreed ☺
The charge was Old Fart - in the sense of not listening enough to young people.
So the psychological advantage that England were predicted to have over Australia turned out to be more hope than reality.
Yet given that Smith has to have a bad game at some point then England might do well at the Oval (often a good ground for them) if they can hold out for a draw this weekend.
If.
I was rather amused by a comment from Jim Maxwell on TMS this afternoon.
He said there were cranes around all the cricket grounds this year.
It seems he isn't aware of the 'austerity' that the UK is 'suffering'.
Very rare I catch the main ITV national news. It's a rare mainstream treat outside my bubble and I was shocked by how bad the narrative framing was for Boris. Even Mugabe got more balanced treatment. ITV News is by far the most centrist/tabloid of the TV broadcasters so it was telling.
Not as shocking as Boris himself. He dug himself another hole accepting without reservation there would be no election or ' No Deal ' exist ergo the 31/10 date would be honoured by bring back a deal. Even if he could strike a new deal the EU and Commons would both agree it surely won't ratified by then. He appears to have lost the plot.
From the live feed I'm watching, it seems that something has gone wrong with the Indian attempt to land a probe on the Moon.
It's all got rather her tense.
I heard the other day that, despite the successes of the Apollo missions, only 52% of all Moon landings were a success . No idea if it's true, but there have been many failures. (There is a similar stat about Mars.)
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
Good for you making an actual prediction. HYUFD keeps referring to this weekend's polls bit is careful to be vague enough that even if the Tories lead is cut in half in all of them he can still say "well they're ahead!"
I expect Con to be up. I've also put a figure on it, if there is no election agreed Monday then come the end of October* I expect the Tories to be polling around the 40% mark and I don't think it will fall after Halloween.
* Maybe not this weekend, not everything filters through immediately.
I don't think Boris will be harmed by the opposition's maneauvers, but I suspect the Conservatives have a ceiling in the high 30s. Their problem is geting the balance between the Never Dealers and the We'd Prefer A Deal Please right.
Hence the importance of an mid October election. That's pretty much the last moment he can keep the "threaten no deal to get a deal" and "do no deal because we want no deal" types on board together before the wavefunction collapses. Get a big enough majority, and he'd have 5 years to calm any ruffled feathers. I guess it could have worked.
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
You’re going to look like a right wazzock if Con are down or stagnant.
Having avoided PB and its doubtless 10,000+ comments since Monday morning I have come to the conclusion that Boris does not want No Deal.
Now if I am right and assuming Boris wins a GE what do the ERG fanatics do when the government proposes the BorisDeal.
Do they have another tantrum and try to bring down Boris as they did with May ?
Is 2019 destined to be repeated as farce ?
Agree Boris does not want No Deal. If true, much said of him is false. It does of course involve believing him. There are reasons why people don't, not only political ones.
Of course he doesn't want No Deal - he's hardly even a proper Brexiter. But ever since May discovered her Backstop idea had gone down like a bucket of cold sick, the government has been desperate to find an alternative, without success. Boris took over knowing that he was going to have to leave the EU without a deal - he knows that the EU won't remove the Backstop and that they won't cave if he keeps No Deal on the table; the current "talks" are a sham.
Politically this is a risk he is willing to take - half the country (maybe more) is so sick of the Brexit merry-go-round that they just want it over and done with. If he could get an election next month and win it, he'll have 5 years to recover from whatever shock the economy takes, and (a la Falklands and 9/11) a large part of the electorate is willing to support politicians in times of crisis, even though the same politicians allowed the crisis to happen.
Why is cool like fonzies even being reported? Its lunacy, wtf is newsworthy about it?!
It's a quote from Pulp Fiction. It shows the mindset of Master Cummings.
Or that he likes that quote and thinks it's a bit cool. I dont expect he was dressed as Samuel L Jackson when he said it. The press are losing the plot over this week.
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
The personal insults and vitriol directed at him on QT was very uncomftable to watch.
Thankfully all the personal bullshit seemed to be quite a big turn-off to the audience who actually seemed far calmer and more rational than the guests who were in rant and rave mode for most of it.
@Chris It occured to me today that the opposition parties have successfully lifted Pelosi's playbook from the Wall/Shutdown confrontation. You simply refuse to do the thing the Bully is insisting you do, ride out the initial negative coverage, then watch as the Bulliy's strategy collapses as they are made to look weak and unpresidential/unprimeministerial and voter who don't follow the details just see chaos and tantrum. Pelosi won because once you upend the political framing - that she couldn't say no - the constitutional reality took over. She could say no. It's the same with Boris and the FTPA. Once you get past the shibbolith that oppositions can't refuse elections Boris looks weak for betting the house on something he has no power to deliver.
"Physically, he seems in a remarkable state. Apart from looking like he cuts his hair with the bacon scissors, the PM’s shtick is bizarre and juddering, as though some of his innards are trying to escape. Perhaps they have found the tension between the bodily functions they are required to provide and the national interest unresolvable."
OK Boris has bowled a series of full tosses to the commentariat, but it takes real skill to reverse sweep them for 6 as ably as that.
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
The personal insults and vitriol directed at him on QT was very uncomftable to watch.
Thankfully all the personal bullshit seemed to be quite a big turn-off to the audience who actually seemed far calmer and more rational than the guests who were in rant and rave mode for most of it.
I'd expect him to reach out to friendly media over prorogation to do some fluff pieces
Why would he want to win an election? Or why would he not want Jeremy Corbyn as PM?
I assume the former is self-explanatory, so for the latter three reasons.
1: The optics of Corbyn entering Downing Street will be great for him and give Labour a real boost, not something you want right before an election. 2: Harder to [rightly] warn of the threat of Corbyn when everyone's already agreed to let Corbyn be PM and we didn't instantly turn into Venezuela [yet] 3: The 2017 vote was a disaster as opposition to the Tories solidified to Labour. Ideally this time he'd want the opposition split between Lib Dems and Labour - Corbyn as PM and Boris as LOTO would make Labour the obvious Remain party and make it a binary vote like 2017.
Cheekiest thing Boris could do is to say if someone has to do an extension then the party most solidly for Remain should do it before the vote so he'll get the Tories to back Jo Swinson for Downing Street for the extension before taking her on at the election. Sideline Corbyn.
Well that’s an honest answer which is better than the usual Corbyn will destroy the country in nano seconds answer. I quite like your suggestion of putting Jo Swinson in though
In 1905 the master strategist Arthur Balfour decided to let the Liberal Henry Campbell-Bannerman become Prime Minister of a minority government. Despite have a majority, he hannded over.
At the time, this was regarded as tactical genius, forcing the Liberals to fight the 1906 election from power rather than the ease of opposition.
It did not end well for the Conservatives.
Of course the Conservatives and Liberal Unionists were struggling before then anyway too.
Interesting historical footnote is that Campbell-Bannerman is the only person to simultaneously be PM and Father of the House at the same time. If Ken Clarke were to form a temporary GONU he could be the unlikely second.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
You’re going to look like a right wazzock if Con are down or stagnant.
It’s only a poll - a 10 pt Con lead doesn’t count until the GE.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
I'm sure Labour's spin doctors are hugely relaxed about whatever the polls say this weekend, since Labour now has the whip hand. They know Boris's "talks" with the EU will be a failure. If he doesn't resign (rather than delay Brexit) his poll ratings will slip, and Farage's will rise. At that point Corbyn will allow the GE to take place.
You simply refuse to do the thing the Bully is insisting you do, ride out the initial negative coverage, then watch as the Bulliy's strategy collapses as they are made to look weak and unpresidential/unprimeministerial
@Chris It occured to me today that the opposition parties have successfully lifted Pelosi's playbook from the Wall/Shutdown confrontation. You simply refuse to do the thing the Bully is insisting you do, ride out the initial negative coverage, then watch as the Bulliy's strategy collapses as they are made to look weak and unpresidential/unprimeministerial and voter who don't follow the details just see chaos and tantrum. Pelosi won because once you upend the political framing - that she couldn't say no - the constitutional reality took over. She could say no. It's the same with Boris and the FTPA. Once you get past the shibbolith that oppositions can't refuse elections Boris looks weak for betting the house on something he has no power to deliver.
However the wall is being built, so I'm not sure Pelosi won at all.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
You’re going to look like a right wazzock if Con are down or stagnant.
My record of predicitons isn't too bad.
I was one of the first people on here to say Donald Trump would be POTUS and I was one of the first to reazlize how terribly Cameron and May's manifesto lauches would play with the public in 2010 and 2017 respectively.
But I don't get everything right (no one does) and if I'm wrong I'll admit it.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
You’re going to look like a right wazzock if Con are down or stagnant.
Even if Con is up this weekend I suspect it will look very different in a fortnight when Parliament is prorogued and thanks to Boris’s incompetency the opposition have 5 weeks when they can say we are ready now, Boris when are you going to call that election
... I dont expect he was dressed as Samuel L Jackson when he said it....
Of course, now you've mentioned it, I can't get the image of a blacked-up jheri-curl-wearing Dominic Cummings standing in a black suit jacket and his underpants, waving a 9mm around manically whilst screaming "YO, M*****F*****!" as the shoe polish melts off his nose into his frothing, incoherent, gap-toothed mouth.
I'm also been pleased to see Lib Dem and SNP spokespeople talking about when not if an election will be held and specifically November. While I'd have prefered this to be sharper and quicker once the debate is about the date of the election not whether it is happening it becomes a process story.
It wouldn't surprise me if by mid October the opposition parties are the ones champing for an election and it's Boris and most voters via polls saying wait till Spring.
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
Of course there is. It is personal. Many people think he is an unfit PERSON to be our PM, regardless of his policies on Brexit or other matters.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
Good for you making an actual prediction. HYUFD keeps referring to this weekend's polls bit is careful to be vague enough that even if the Tories lead is cut in half in all of them he can still say "well they're ahead!"
I expect Con to be up. I've also put a figure on it, if there is no election agreed Monday then come the end of October* I expect the Tories to be polling around the 40% mark and I don't think it will fall after Halloween.
* Maybe not this weekend, not everything filters through immediately.
I don't think Boris will be harmed by the opposition's maneauvers, but I suspect the Conservatives have a ceiling in the high 30s. Their problem is geting the balance between the Never Dealers and the We'd Prefer A Deal Please right.
Hence the importance of an mid October election. That's pretty much the last moment he can keep the "threaten no deal to get a deal" and "do no deal because we want no deal" types on board together before the wavefunction collapses. Get a big enough majority, and he'd have 5 years to calm any ruffled feathers. I guess it could have worked.
Ironically November is probably easier to keep the two types together.
If we go into a November/December election with an extension then he will be able to go into that election saying "threaten no deal to get a deal" and those who want that will pin their hopes on a deal, those who want no deal will pin their hopes on that. But crucially he will have some time and space both to get a deal and to blame the EU if he can't get one.
If OTOH there is a mid-October election there will be no time to actually really get a deal between the election result and the Council meeting.
I've been wondering if there's a possibility for the opposition (or at least, a segment of the opposition necessary to reach the 2/3 threshold) to demand something else in return for granting Johnson's preferred timing (and hence avoid looking like election-ducking cowards).
Perhaps something really humiliating to absolutely underline the narrative that Boris is weak and doesn't/can't keep his promises.
Perhaps a favourable change to the electoral laws. Don't think you could do anything super-radical here - implementing the boundary review would actually likely favour the Tories, wouldn't it? And not much else is easily ready to roll out. AV is off the menu after its referendum failure. PR or multi-membe STV would be too drastic to push through (though I'm sure there's some ancient STV legislation that could be given a dusting-off...). But how about:
"This is a generational-defining election, as in the more progressive parts of the UK the voting age must accordingly fall to 16."
Is that a go-er? My first thought was that the logistics would be tricky in terms of registration, but in principle there'd be time for the eager ones to register during the campaign and the less-than-eager probably wouldn't vote anyway.
There's got to be something tempting about trying to lock in a permanent electoral advantage in return for a one-off concession over timing...
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
Certainly true with his old squeeze in today's picture. Right down to the park bench, coffee and ciggies.
New market - Cities of London and Westminster (Con Maj 3,148, Mark Field MP)
LD (Chuka Umunna) EVS Con (Mark Field) 5/4 Lab 5/1
(Shadsy)
Bizarre, how he can be favourite coming from third and 11% against an incumbent who gets around 50% usually. Labour got 38% last time. If this goes yellow they will sweep London and thornberry and Corbyn will be at risk
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
The personal insults and vitriol directed at him on QT was very uncomftable to watch.
Thankfully all the personal bullshit seemed to be quite a big turn-off to the audience who actually seemed far calmer and more rational than the guests who were in rant and rave mode for most of it.
What? I'm sure it is uncomfortable for the Tories who knew that they were electing a buffoon who is a stranger of the truth to find that the 64.9 million of us without a vote don't much care about having a liar add PM.
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?
New market - Cities of London and Westminster (Con Maj 3,148, Mark Field MP)
LD (Chuka Umunna) EVS Con (Mark Field) 5/4 Lab 5/1
(Shadsy)
Waaaay too short on the LDs.
Westminster voted 69% Remain and in the European elections in May the LDs won the local authority area with more votes than the Tories and Brexit Party combined so looks about right.
Chuka has picked a good seat for him I think and Field has not had a good recent press.
The weekend polls aren't about the headline voting intentions. They are about what if any impact the prorogation power play have had on Boris' leader ratings. That the figure to watch.
I think we'll have 2-3 at least tomorrow night... And I predict Con will be UP!!!
I suspect there will be something for everyone - Con and LD up a bit, Corbyn rating up a bit, BXP not plunging. But the situation is too volatile for it to make much odds either way - we could easily feel quite differently in a couple of weeks (either way).
Good evening Dr Palmer.
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
I'm sure Labour's spin doctors are hugely relaxed about whatever the polls say this weekend, since Labour now has the whip hand. They know Boris's "talks" with the EU will be a failure. If he doesn't resign (rather than delay Brexit) his poll ratings will slip, and Farage's will rise. At that point Corbyn will allow the GE to take place.
If that occurred the Tories would vote down an election anyway, so it would still fail
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?
Unreal.
Anything to ‘own the libs’, even letting them win.
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
Certainly true with his old squeeze in today's picture. Right down to the park bench, coffee and ciggies.
Why would he want to win an election? Or why would he not want Jeremy Corbyn as PM?
I assume the former is self-explanatory, so for the latter three reasons.
1: The optics of Corbyn entering Downing Street will be great for him and give Labour a real boost, not something you want right before an election. 2: Harder to [rightly] warn of the threat of Corbyn when everyone's already agreed to let Corbyn be PM and we didn't instantly turn into Venezuela [yet] 3: The 2017 vote was a disaster as opposition to the Tories solidified to Labour. Ideally this time he'd want the opposition split between Lib Dems and Labour - Corbyn as PM and Boris as LOTO would make Labour the obvious Remain party and make it a binary vote like 2017.
Cheekiest thing Boris could do is to say if someone has to do an extension then the party most solidly for Remain should do it before the vote so he'll get the Tories to back Jo Swinson for Downing Street for the extension before taking her on at the election. Sideline Corbyn.
Well that’s an honest answer which is better than the usual Corbyn will destroy the country in nano seconds answer. I quite like your suggestion of putting Jo Swinson in though
In 1905 the master strategist Arthur Balfour decided to let the Liberal Henry Campbell-Bannerman become Prime Minister of a minority government. Despite have a majority, he hannded over.
At the time, this was regarded as tactical genius, forcing the Liberals to fight the 1906 election from power rather than the ease of opposition.
It did not end well for the Conservatives.
Of course the Conservatives and Liberal Unionists were struggling before then anyway too.
Interesting historical footnote is that Campbell-Bannerman is the only person to simultaneously be PM and Father of the House at the same time. If Ken Clarke were to form a temporary GONU he could be the unlikely second.
Then it would be Ken Clarke PM and Boris Leader of the Opposition
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?
Unreal.
No, I am talking about Boris committing to his refusal to extend again and letting another PM do the betrayal. Boris would have a 20%+ poll lead by Christmas
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?
Unreal.
Works for me, but I cannot see BoZo surviving as party leader in opposition.
New market - Cities of London and Westminster (Con Maj 3,148, Mark Field MP)
LD (Chuka Umunna) EVS Con (Mark Field) 5/4 Lab 5/1
(Shadsy)
Waaaay too short on the LDs.
Westminster voted 69% Remain and in the European elections in May the LDs won the local authority area with more votes than the Tories and Brexit Party combined so looks about right.
Chuka has picked a good seat for him I think and Field has not had a good recent press.
On that basis you must be expecting BXP to do better than the Conservatives at the next GE.
I would have hoped you would have learnt your lesson two years ago about making predictions about everything in a GE.
Of course weren't you also the person who told us that Chukka was going to become Labour leader.
Saw the package on ITV Border News re Boris' visit to Scottish Farmers. His non verbals were awful. Superficially he was the old Boris and the public wasn't hostile but he looked deflated, broken and in slightly poor health. We can know what but behind the scenes ge's obviously received a crushing psychological blow this week. They also included a few shots of Ruth Davidson's resignation and an authoritative interview with an SNP government minister. He pulled off the exasperated head teacher act very well.
We'll see but it's been a bad week for the project.
I still find it difficult to make sense of. In a sense the Commons have got him off the hook by tying his hands and refusing an election. If he's crushed by that, does it mean he was crazy enough to think that No Deal was going to be a rip-roaring success? Or is he crushed because he realises he's hopelessly inadequate at the job?
Maybe he heard that HYUFD was suggesting he resign?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
You're talking about Johnson being out of office after a month and a half, having split his own party, betrayed his "do or die" election pitch, and installed Corbyn as prime minister - and you're asking "what is not to like"?
Unreal.
I think that Brexit has, quite literally, driven a lot of Tories mad.
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
He would have gone from PM to not PM with no transition, no agreed future relationship with his party, no nothing. Cliff edge. This is NOT what the membership voted for and it was only a few weeks ago that they filled in their ballot papers. If the intention was to leave Downing St in such a chaotic disorganized manner this should have been made clear to the electorate at the time. In short, he has no mandate to resign. It would be a betrayal of democracy.
All this is he unwell stuff, it's a little unfair. Boris clearly has a slightly odd resting face, in interviews before I've noticed he tends to stare what looks rather blankly whilst he thinks. That and the bumbling give the impression of someone struggling and I think could be easily exploited by using the 'right' pictures. Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
There have been plenty of hyperactive PMs, the job requires energy and stamina, but Boris strikes me as potentially an ADHD PM, the taking on of everything without consistent application, the near autonomic covering for failure by embracing it, the self doubt and expectation he will let himself down.
If so, it's possible number 10.has thrown the routines that do keep him centred, the jogging, the cycling. If he's working harder than normal, some other part of his life will be leaching. Dom Cumming will work like a bastard and go home. Boris, on the other hand, won't be sleeping, eating well, he will be disquilibrated from the routines that keep him going, he will lack the ability to readily structure himself on the fly that enabled previous PMs to take on the workload, and he will be suffering from day 14 head fry where he desperately needs to switch off for a bit but can't.
Add to which Carrie, in as much as she understands Boris after a shortish relationship, looks to have been distanced - I don't think that dog was pure political stunt - it may have been the advisors keeping her out of the way.
If so, all this is cyclical and reversible. He needs something of a political personal trainer.with medical understanding as a key member of his Downing Street staff.
Oh the outrage, the humanity, he used the phrase girly! The woke generation are screaming to the sky and weeping wounded tears at the horrors of it all It really didn't require an intervention Jo, fauxrage is not a vote winner
The woke generation are also locking girls out of school and calling the police on them because they want to wear skirts.
Putinist klaxon. The aim here -- which you /appear/ to be buying into -- is to portray a fascist politics as a politics of innocence, by stoking psychosexual fears in the general population. In Russia, the process is mediated through the image of western politics being inherently homosexual, but since homophobia is dying in the west, different targets are chosen. So a mixture of the "great replacement" nonsense that Orban was rambling on about has been doing the rounds the last few years, and now we're moving onto the kind of stuff you're bringing up.
It's Bannonist shite, designed to turn people to the path of fear and hatred, and to smuggle in a fascist ideology. See also Putin, Zaldostanov, Bannon, Manafort.
Wokes are a bunch of fannies, they need to get a life with all this gender neutral crap. Is it any wonder the country is fecked.
I'm not going to agree or disagree with you, but you're spectacularly missing the big picture. We're all meant to be hating each other over this issue. Wings Over Scotland and Katie Hopkins are working to exactly the same goal, whether they realise it or not. I'm not taking part in it.
Exactly, I hate no-one , but some of these people need to chill out.
So do you think a short spell as PM would be a net negative for him? What if compared to nobody being able to form a government and there being a GE at a time of Boris' choosing?
I was more objecting to the idea that he would be a pawn in some game of Johnson's - getting put in and then VONC'd out almost immediately.
I don't think it works like that. Corbyn will (IMO) only become PM ante election if he has put in place enough reliable support to ensure that Johnson CANNOT do that.
On the timeframe, if he does take over, it surely has to run into 2020, no?
Could be the best cure? As leader of the largest party Boris would be the most powerful Leader of the Opposition in British history, he could harry Corbyn or any other PM every step of the way as they betray the will of the people facing one of the weakest governments in British history made of multiple parties with little in common but stopping Brexit, no responsibilities, a guaranteed big poll lead. Assuming the extend again Bill gets Royal Assent and the general election vote is defeated on Monday what is not to like?
He would have gone from PM to not PM with no transition, no agreed future relationship with his party, no nothing. Cliff edge. This is NOT what the membership voted for and it was only a few weeks ago that they filled in their ballot papers. If the intention was to leave Downing St in such a chaotic disorganized manner this should have been made clear to the electorate at the time. In short, he has no mandate to resign. It would be a betrayal of democracy.
He would be a hero with his party and Leavers who refused to bow down to the traitor diehard Remainer MPs in Parliament.
He could then lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition through to the next election on a commitment to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal as soon as he gets a majority
New market - Cities of London and Westminster (Con Maj 3,148, Mark Field MP)
LD (Chuka Umunna) EVS Con (Mark Field) 5/4 Lab 5/1
(Shadsy)
Waaaay too short on the LDs.
Westminster voted 69% Remain and in the European elections in May the LDs won the local authority area with more votes than the Tories and Brexit Party combined so looks about right.
Chuka has picked a good seat for him I think and Field has not had a good recent press.
On that basis you must be expecting BXP to do better than the Conservatives at the next GE.
I would have hoped you would have learnt your lesson two years ago about making predictions about everything in a GE.
Of course weren't you also the person who told us that Chukka was going to become Labour leader.
No, as the Tories have largely adopted most of the Brexit Party's agenda by refusing to extend again.
Chuka will likely be LD leader and probably now has more chance of being PM in that post than as leader of a Labour Party in decline and dominated by the hard left
New market - Cities of London and Westminster (Con Maj 3,148, Mark Field MP)
LD (Chuka Umunna) EVS Con (Mark Field) 5/4 Lab 5/1
(Shadsy)
Waaaay too short on the LDs.
Westminster voted 69% Remain and in the European elections in May the LDs won the local authority area with more votes than the Tories and Brexit Party combined so looks about right.
Chuka has picked a good seat for him I think and Field has not had a good recent press.
On that basis you must be expecting BXP to do better than the Conservatives at the next GE.
I would have hoped you would have learnt your lesson two years ago about making predictions about everything in a GE.
Of course weren't you also the person who told us that Chukka was going to become Labour leader.
No, as the Tories have largely adopted most of the Brexit Party's agenda by refusing to extend again.
Chuka will likely be LD leader and probably now has more chance of being PM in that post than as leader of a Labour Party in decline and dominated by the hard left
Comments
Personally I don't feel confident enough to make a prediction of the effect of recent events on polls. Up, down or stable all seem plausible
You are at it again - saying something bizarre in a way that makes it sound reasonable.
Why should private schools be allowed to teach anti gay bigotry?
And there's always the luck factor.
I think this series has shown had dependent England have become on Jimmy Anderson.
https://twitter.com/ruthsmeeth/status/1169927684320833537?s=21
Given the historic enmity between Messrs Cummings and Farage I think Mr Johnson may cut Mr. Cummings trace sooner rather than later.
The charge was Old Fart - in the sense of not listening enough to young people.
How do you plead?
He said there were cranes around all the cricket grounds this year.
It seems he isn't aware of the 'austerity' that the UK is 'suffering'.
If I like BoZo but can't stand Nigel Fucking Farage, and the Tories stand aside for BXP in my constituency, who do I vote for?
Not as shocking as Boris himself. He dug himself another hole accepting without reservation there would be no election or ' No Deal ' exist ergo the 31/10 date would be honoured by bring back a deal. Even if he could strike a new deal the EU and Commons would both agree it surely won't ratified by then. He appears to have lost the plot.
From the live feed I'm watching, it seems that something has gone wrong with the Indian attempt to land a probe on the Moon.
It's all got rather her tense.
I heard the other day that, despite the successes of the Apollo missions, only 52% of all Moon landings were a success . No idea if it's true, but there have been many failures. (There is a similar stat about Mars.)
Of course it might all be very straining too but the undertone of the coverage this week concerns me, theres what feels like a lot of personal animosity there
Labour denying people a general election after spending two years demanding one day in and day out will play very badly.
You'll see the first signs of it in tomorrow nights polls.
You have been warned.
Politically this is a risk he is willing to take - half the country (maybe more) is so sick of the Brexit merry-go-round that they just want it over and done with. If he could get an election next month and win it, he'll have 5 years to recover from whatever shock the economy takes, and (a la Falklands and 9/11) a large part of the electorate is willing to support politicians in times of crisis, even though the same politicians allowed the crisis to happen.
Thankfully all the personal bullshit seemed to be quite a big turn-off to the audience who actually seemed far calmer and more rational than the guests who were in rant and rave mode for most of it.
OK Boris has bowled a series of full tosses to the commentariat, but it takes real skill to reverse sweep them for 6 as ably as that.
Interesting historical footnote is that Campbell-Bannerman is the only person to simultaneously be PM and Father of the House at the same time. If Ken Clarke were to form a temporary GONU he could be the unlikely second.
My record of predicitons isn't too bad.
I was one of the first people on here to say Donald Trump would be POTUS and I was one of the first to reazlize how terribly Cameron and May's manifesto lauches would play with the public in 2010 and 2017 respectively.
But I don't get everything right (no one does) and if I'm wrong I'll admit it.
We'll soon see...
LD (Chuka Umunna) EVS
Con (Mark Field) 5/4
Lab 5/1
(Shadsy)
It wouldn't surprise me if by mid October the opposition parties are the ones champing for an election and it's Boris and most voters via polls saying wait till Spring.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1170076965627412480
Gove should visit BoZo with the whisky and revolver...
If we go into a November/December election with an extension then he will be able to go into that election saying "threaten no deal to get a deal" and those who want that will pin their hopes on a deal, those who want no deal will pin their hopes on that. But crucially he will have some time and space both to get a deal and to blame the EU if he can't get one.
If OTOH there is a mid-October election there will be no time to actually really get a deal between the election result and the Council meeting.
I've been wondering if there's a possibility for the opposition (or at least, a segment of the opposition necessary to reach the 2/3 threshold) to demand something else in return for granting Johnson's preferred timing (and hence avoid looking like election-ducking cowards).
Perhaps something really humiliating to absolutely underline the narrative that Boris is weak and doesn't/can't keep his promises.
Perhaps a favourable change to the electoral laws. Don't think you could do anything super-radical here - implementing the boundary review would actually likely favour the Tories, wouldn't it? And not much else is easily ready to roll out. AV is off the menu after its referendum failure. PR or multi-membe STV would be too drastic to push through (though I'm sure there's some ancient STV legislation that could be given a dusting-off...). But how about:
"This is a generational-defining election, as in the more progressive parts of the UK the voting age must accordingly fall to 16."
Is that a go-er? My first thought was that the logistics would be tricky in terms of registration, but in principle there'd be time for the eager ones to register during the campaign and the less-than-eager probably wouldn't vote anyway.
There's got to be something tempting about trying to lock in a permanent electoral advantage in return for a one-off concession over timing...
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1169885722142105600?s=19
Unreal.
Chuka has picked a good seat for him I think and Field has not had a good recent press.
The LDs were nowhere in this seat in 2017, and haven’t finished in 2nd place since 1987.
(Weird trivia: at the1950 GE the Communists got 888 votes in this seat, the heart of English capitalism.)
The Tories BoZo expelled are taking legal action to compel him to extend
Notwithstanding the FTPA isn't dissolving Parliament a matter for HMQ legally?
NEW THREAD
I would have hoped you would have learnt your lesson two years ago about making predictions about everything in a GE.
Of course weren't you also the person who told us that Chukka was going to become Labour leader.
If so, it's possible number 10.has thrown the routines that do keep him centred, the jogging, the cycling. If he's working harder than normal, some other part of his life will be leaching. Dom Cumming will work like a bastard and go home. Boris, on the other hand, won't be sleeping, eating well, he will be disquilibrated from the routines that keep him going, he will lack the ability to readily structure himself on the fly that enabled previous PMs to take on the workload, and he will be suffering from day 14 head fry where he desperately needs to switch off for a bit but can't.
Add to which Carrie, in as much as she understands Boris after a shortish relationship, looks to have been distanced - I don't think that dog was pure political stunt - it may have been the advisors keeping her out of the way.
If so, all this is cyclical and reversible. He needs something of a political personal trainer.with medical understanding as a key member of his Downing Street staff.
(N.B. Still don't like his politics though)
I don't think it works like that. Corbyn will (IMO) only become PM ante election if he has put in place enough reliable support to ensure that Johnson CANNOT do that.
On the timeframe, if he does take over, it surely has to run into 2020, no?
He could then lead phase 2 of the war to deliver Brexit from opposition through to the next election on a commitment to Leave the EU Deal or No Deal as soon as he gets a majority
Chuka will likely be LD leader and probably now has more chance of being PM in that post than as leader of a Labour Party in decline and dominated by the hard left