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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No-vember election. A betting tip

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    TGOHF said:

    PClipp said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    In which case he would have clearly sabotaged the extension and MPs will either end up revoking article 50 or putting forward a VONC. This time though there would be such anger at Johnson’s tactics that Corbyn would be put in to request an extension .

    “Clearly sabotaged” - you mean sticking up for our National interest ?
    That will go down well with the voters.
    But the "National Interest" means staying in the EU, with all its guarantees and protections. National interest is not the same thing as keeping the Conservative Party in office - in fact, quite the contrary.
    It’s your opinion - but not one shared by a majority.
    Citation required.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    I can see Boris saying he agrees with Macron - there is no point in an extension.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    blueblue said:
    If it's going to happen it'll be on Monday?
    I looked at that and thought “that’s ridiculous, it must say 14 sitting days”. It does not. Boris could, arguably, have to advise the Queen to appoint Corbyn or another MP, but unless there’s a mechanism to recall Parliament from prorogation (?) I don’t see how the required confidence motion could pass to avoid an election. On day one Boris could even say “there’s clearly no majority for anything Your Majesty, so we need an election”.

    I must be missing something though, else that approach effectively reinstates the old powers.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    Any letter written by the PM has legal significance. The Bill just mandates one particular letter; it says nothing about writing others.
    Asking for an Article 50 extension is a formal process that should be done under the constitutional arrangements of the member state.

    This bill will now become part of those arrangements. The letter is the letter.
    What's wrong with an additional letter saying the extension will get us nowhere, and we'll be in exactly the same position three months later?
    The EU already know that.
    So what's the point?
    Because they’ll probably give us an extension anyway.

    If they don’t well, that’s another issue isn’t it.
    No, what is the point of an extension?
    We continue to remain members of the EU.
    For three more months, then the same thing happens.
    But weve handed over £3Bn..
    And in return received a whole raft of benefits. Stop with this misleading nonsense.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
  • Excellent article, Alastair. Exactly what politicalbetting is for, at its best.
  • tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What precisely is the problem with a winter election ? The old dears tend to vote postally these days.

    A really bad day on Election Day in weather terms could impact turnout and casts questions about the legitimacy of the result.

    Just needs it to be really wet, windy, very cold, or snowy and it’ll be anarchy particularly in rural seats.

    Could impact the ability of people manning the polling stations.
    You make it sound like we're still living in the middle ages.
    I've regularly experienced how a little bit of snow grinds the country to a halt, especially the transport system.
    That shouldn't be a problem for voting, but it might prolong the count if it takes time to get the ballot boxes to the counts.
    Given how many people vote after work, a mid/late afternoon snow shower has an impact.

    Is one of the reasons PMs have avoided having an election after the clocks go back.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    The letter does not forbid any variance in the conditions of the extension.

    The letter is the letter. That’s it.
    What about the cover letter

    I want this extension to do X
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    Any letter written by the PM has legal significance. The Bill just mandates one particular letter; it says nothing about writing others.
    Asking for an Article 50 extension is a formal process that should be done under the constitutional arrangements of the member state.

    This bill will now become part of those arrangements. The letter is the letter.
    What's wrong with an additional letter saying the extension will get us nowhere, and we'll be in exactly the same position three months later?
    The EU already know that.
    So what's the point?
    Because they’ll probably give us an extension anyway.

    If they don’t well, that’s another issue isn’t it.
    No, what is the point of an extension?
    We continue to remain members of the EU.
    For three more months, then the same thing happens.
    But weve handed over £3Bn..
    And in return received a whole raft of benefits. Stop with this misleading nonsense.
    Three more months of paralysis and deadlock?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What precisely is the problem with a winter election ? The old dears tend to vote postally these days.

    A really bad day on Election Day in weather terms could impact turnout and casts questions about the legitimacy of the result.

    Just needs it to be really wet, windy, very cold, or snowy and it’ll be anarchy particularly in rural seats.

    Could impact the ability of people manning the polling stations.
    Did you miss 23 June 2016?
    Feb 74 had a turnout of 78.8%. Highest around that time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    There is no reason to think a VONC in BoZo will pass.

    If it did, it would mean an election because Parliament is prorogued afterwards and therefore there is no time to form another government.
    A VONC only becomes priority business if it is moved by the LOTO. If anyone else moves one the Speaker will not call it forward for debate - he did not call the one the LDs moved a few months ago.
    Doesn’t the government (usually) control the business of the Commons?
    Emergency debate tabled under SO24 to avoid a VONC tabled by the PM....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Indeed. And no more embarrassing than the original act of a sitting government saying it has no confidence in itself!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    edited September 2019

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    EDIT: Perhaps the motion would have to be that This House has confidence in the Prime Minister to deliver a No Deal Brexit..... Watching the Opposition heading through the Aye lobby on that would be a joy!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    The letter does not forbid any variance in the conditions of the extension.

    The letter is the letter. That’s it.
    What about the cover letter

    I want this extension to do X
    Why would the EU really care? An extension is an extension. We’ve done nowt with this one, regardless of the ‘reason’ for it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    EDIT: Perhaps the motion would have to be that This House has confidence in the Prime MInister to deliver a No Deal Brexit..... Watching the Opposition heading through the Aye lobby on that would be a joy!
    Then it wouldn't have force under the FTPA.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Pulpstar said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    There is no reason to think a VONC in BoZo will pass.

    If it did, it would mean an election because Parliament is prorogued afterwards and therefore there is no time to form another government.
    A VONC only becomes priority business if it is moved by the LOTO. If anyone else moves one the Speaker will not call it forward for debate - he did not call the one the LDs moved a few months ago.
    Doesn’t the government (usually) control the business of the Commons?
    Emergency debate tabled under SO24 to avoid a VONC tabled by the PM....
    Clever.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Can they simply abstain?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    TGOHF said:

    I can see Boris saying he agrees with Macron - there is no point in an extension.

    The extension is a point in itself to those proposing it. They hope something will come up.

    But as with the last one really parliament should say what it wants it for and why it wont need another.
  • AndyJS said:


    We had the same problems about 3 years ago with thieves stealing the copper cables multiples times. Luckily they've replaced them with fibre-optic cables which apparently aren't worth stealing. The internet speed is now about 50 times faster than it was. (75 v 1.5).

    "In mitigation, Your Honour, my client replaced the copper cables he had stolen with fibre optics"
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited September 2019
    Legally if any of the wording does not follow that within the FTPA then even if the government loses a VONC this nullifies the motion and a general election doesn’t happen .

    Therefore if MPs can amend the motion they can vote against the government so it loses and an election still won’t happen .
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Indeed. And no more embarrassing than the original act of a sitting government saying it has no confidence in itself!!
    This way round it only requires a few opposition MPs to be washing their hair that night. What are they going to be criticised for? Not giving confidence to the Gvt?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    Any letter written by the PM has legal significance. The Bill just mandates one particular letter; it says nothing about writing others.
    Asking for an Article 50 extension is a formal process that should be done under the constitutional arrangements of the member state.

    This bill will now become part of those arrangements. The letter is the letter.
    What's wrong with an additional letter saying the extension will get us nowhere, and we'll be in exactly the same position three months later?
    The EU already know that.
    So what's the point?
    Because they’ll probably give us an extension anyway.

    If they don’t well, that’s another issue isn’t it.
    No, what is the point of an extension?
    We continue to remain members of the EU.
    For three more months, then the same thing happens.
    But weve handed over £3Bn..
    And in return received a whole raft of benefits. Stop with this misleading nonsense.
    Three more months of paralysis and deadlock?
    And investment decisions for 2020 not being taken.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Any embarrassment will be forgotten by the time if any election when it comes, especially if Boris is suffering due to BXP.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Off-topic:

    A few days ago I mentioned that much of my village lost landline phone and/or Internet for six days after thieves pinched a load of cables. We lost our landline, but fortunately t'Internet remained.

    Guess what? Cables have been stolen again, and much of the village is again without landline or t'Internet. Fortunately for all of you, we currently have both. ;)

    The Scrap Metal Dealers Act 2013 really needs to be enforced or tightened up, as the money these little scrotes get from the metal is orders of magnitude less than the disruption caused. Witness also lead from church rooves.

    Roofs.
    Both are correct
  • FPT (thought it had gone a bit quiet in there :))



    Yeah but theres a danger in that 'the lib dems are blocking saving lifes etc etc.' If anything a tempory government would be more tempted to do something 'outragous' than a permanent one.

    A hallmark of the 'Remain Alliance' so far is that it always does the bare minimum required to stop whatever the government's about to do... always extend, never revoke; always force the government's hand, never (so far) overthrow it.

    The "alliance" only extends as far as it meets everyone's unanimous, overlapping needs (unlike, say, the 2010 Coalition which involved a good deal of compromise and shared pain).

    Given that history, any deal to put Corbyn in will have a manifesto of about half a side of A4 with as much leeway as the Benn bill gives Boris. And failure to stick to the script will lead to a VONC.

    I guess if four or five parties agree something that looks like good virtue signalling for all of them - I don't know.. 50p on the minimum wage or more green subsidies - they might give it a go. But I don't see Corbyn getting enough leash to do his own thing, and I think co-operation would be strictly limited ahead of an election campaign where I expect them to resume taking chunks out of each other.
  • ab195 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    blueblue said:
    If it's going to happen it'll be on Monday?
    I looked at that and thought “that’s ridiculous, it must say 14 sitting days”. It does not. Boris could, arguably, have to advise the Queen to appoint Corbyn or another MP, but unless there’s a mechanism to recall Parliament from prorogation (?) I don’t see how the required confidence motion could pass to avoid an election. On day one Boris could even say “there’s clearly no majority for anything Your Majesty, so we need an election”.

    I must be missing something though, else that approach effectively reinstates the old powers.
    It's questionable whether a government which had already been No Confidenced would have a request to prorogue agreed to.

    It's one thing for HM to agree to a sitting govt, where there's a sitting beforehand; it's quite another to clearly frustrate the intention of the Act through the (ab)use of Crown powers by a government of doubtful legitimacy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    We keep on saying “breaking the law” but presumably this would be a civil offence... ie no role for the police?

    Separately if Boris does resign as PM - but not party leader - what are the next steps?

    Usually it would be a nominated successor from government who would be deemed to have confidence...

    I could see an argument that Boris could recommend someone from the Tory ranks and make the argument they should have first go as they are a member of the party with (I think!!) most seats. So someone goes before Corbyn. (Assuming Boris wants this... may be someone like Fallon who has said he is retiring at the next election...£)

    But how is that Confidence tested...? As I said it would usually be deemed unless proven otherwise in a VoNC. But here it’s not the case necessarily... but there would need to be a rock solid certainty that Corbyn would have Confidence before he could take up the role...



    Ken Clarke has floated the idea of backing Corbyn for a day to extend.
    Doesn’t work... he also gets 14 days plus the election campaign
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/remainers-may-regret-not-backing-an-october-general-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“

    The letter is already written in the bill. Any other letter will have no legal significance to the EU and will be thrown in the bin
    Any letter written by the PM has legal significance. The Bill just mandates one particular letter; it says nothing about writing others.
    Asking for an Article 50 extension is a formal process that should be done under the constitutional arrangements of the member state.

    This bill will now become part of those arrangements. The letter is the letter.
    What's wrong with an additional letter saying the extension will get us nowhere, and we'll be in exactly the same position three months later?
    The EU already know that.
    So what's the point?
    Because they’ll probably give us an extension anyway.

    If they don’t well, that’s another issue isn’t it.
    No, what is the point of an extension?
    To explode Cummings’ mind.
  • GIN1138 said:
    Isn't it in the Speaker's hands whether any such motion would be given time to debate? The convention is that a VONC will be debated if HM's Official Opposition tables it, but it's a discretion otherwise.

    Would Bercow give time to a motion of no confidence from the Government where, as here, it's an obvious ruse having just failed to call an election via the proper mechanism? Doubtful. More fantasy war-gaming, I think.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Is that your unicorn TSE at Old Trafford?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    GIN1138 said:
    Isn't it in the Speaker's hands whether any such motion would be given time to debate? The convention is that a VONC will be debated if HM's Official Opposition tables it, but it's a discretion otherwise.

    Would Bercow give time to a motion of no confidence from the Government where, as here, it's an obvious ruse having just failed to call an election via the proper mechanism? Doubtful. More fantasy war-gaming, I think.
    The government have plenty of time in the Commons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Could be worse - I think some American politician did something similar but actually had to buy it the night before which is just plain sad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    TGOHF said:

    I can see Boris saying he agrees with Macron - there is no point in an extension.

    It doesn't work like that. The European Council will have a phone call, and the Chair of the meeting will say "I think we're all agreed to grant the extension request. Please let the minutes reflect that."
  • Excellent article, Alastair. Exactly what politicalbetting is for, at its best.

    Also congratulations on the piece predicting Corbyn's response way ahead of anyone else, although it sadly fell victim to the Universal Law of Brexit, namely that any clever idea anybody might have will somehow blow up in their face.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Hopefully it will mean the e.u doesn't give him an extension even if he asks for it
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477

    ab195 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    blueblue said:
    If it's going to happen it'll be on Monday?
    I looked at that and thought “that’s ridiculous, it must say 14 sitting days”. It does not. Boris could, arguably, have to advise the Queen to appoint Corbyn or another MP, but unless there’s a mechanism to recall Parliament from prorogation (?) I don’t see how the required confidence motion could pass to avoid an election. On day one Boris could even say “there’s clearly no majority for anything Your Majesty, so we need an election”.

    I must be missing something though, else that approach effectively reinstates the old powers.
    It's questionable whether a government which had already been No Confidenced would have a request to prorogue agreed to.

    It's one thing for HM to agree to a sitting govt, where there's a sitting beforehand; it's quite another to clearly frustrate the intention of the Act through the (ab)use of Crown powers by a government of doubtful legitimacy.
    That’s a fair point - is the formal request still to come (so long as it’s with the dates previously agreed?
  • Off-topic:

    A few days ago I mentioned that much of my village lost landline phone and/or Internet for six days after thieves pinched a load of cables. We lost our landline, but fortunately t'Internet remained.

    Guess what? Cables have been stolen again, and much of the village is again without landline or t'Internet. Fortunately for all of you, we currently have both. ;)

    The Scrap Metal Dealers Act 2013 really needs to be enforced or tightened up, as the money these little scrotes get from the metal is orders of magnitude less than the disruption caused. Witness also lead from church rooves.

    Roofs.
    I wondered if I'd trigger anyone with that. ;)

    'Rooves' is archaic, but I keep on coming across it in old books. It seems fitting to use it in relation to churches...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    nunuone said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Can they simply abstain?
    Not if the Conservative benches vote against, no!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    I don't believe so but his rhetoric floats that idea and his worshippers think it's a great idea, so hes likely contemplating it with implausible deniability.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Who'd have thought that the elevation of Mr Johnson to 10 Downing Street would have led to hours of constitutional fun on PB discussing amongst other things how the Tories would no confidence themselves !!

    You couldn't make it up .... except with Boris as Prime Minister !! :smiley:
  • I saw this, cringed so hard, my feet shrank three sizes.
  • This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    nunuone said:

    Hopefully it will mean the e.u doesn't give him an extension even if he asks for it
    Hes being bypassed, forced Into it. The EU wont care what he says in that situation.
  • Mr. Jessop, interesting. I'd not read that before.

    Flittermouse is an old English term for a bat. The equivalent is still used in other languages (I think it's Fledermaus in German). I rather like it.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    FPT (thought it had gone a bit quiet in there :))



    Yeah but theres a danger in that 'the lib dems are blocking saving lifes etc etc.' If anything a tempory government would be more tempted to do something 'outragous' than a permanent one.

    A hallmark of the 'Remain Alliance' so far is that it always does the bare minimum required to stop whatever the government's about to do... always extend, never revoke; always force the government's hand, never (so far) overthrow it.

    The "alliance" only extends as far as it meets everyone's unanimous, overlapping needs (unlike, say, the 2010 Coalition which involved a good deal of compromise and shared pain).

    Given that history, any deal to put Corbyn in will have a manifesto of about half a side of A4 with as much leeway as the Benn bill gives Boris. And failure to stick to the script will lead to a VONC.

    I guess if four or five parties agree something that looks like good virtue signalling for all of them - I don't know.. 50p on the minimum wage or more green subsidies - they might give it a go. But I don't see Corbyn getting enough leash to do his own thing, and I think co-operation would be strictly limited ahead of an election campaign where I expect them to resume taking chunks out of each other.
    So; how a coalition government should work. We could get used to this.
  • I loathe Corbyn, more than most, but the Conservatives doing themselves no favours with that. It is so childish.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    It's a high risk strategy but it might work.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    nunuone said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Can they simply abstain?
    Not if the Conservative benches vote against, no!
    So boris simply needs a simple majority of voting MP's to vote against him and the cooling off period starts?

    I cannot see the SNP *ever* voting that they have confidence in a Tory PM.

    Unless hell has well and truly frozen over.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    FPT

    So the decision to have a long prorogation seems to have achieved the following:

    * engendered widespread allegations about coups, threat to democracy, embarrassing HM etc etc and diminishing even further Johnson's reputation for trustworthiness, having denied it was going to happen only hours before it happened;
    * forced all the opposition parties and rebel Tories to bury their differences and come together behind a coherent and workable strategy to prevent no deal;
    * the expulsion of long-serving Tory MPs, Churchill's grandson included, and the PM's own brother accusing him of abandoning the national interest;
    * an even greater degree of mistrust between the EU and the UK government;
    * the transformation of the opposition parties from a warring rabble of disunited factions into a coherent political force clearly in charge of the parliamentary agenda;
    * the transformation of the Tories from a coherent political force into a warring rabble of disunited factions which has clearly lost control of the parliamentary agenda;
    * closed off any possibility of Johnson being able to deliver on his threats of an early election.

    I wonder how all this fits into the great strategic plan that we have been assured the government is working to?

    We aren't going to know the winner of the planning game until someone can clearly claim victory; wait and see. When you start as PM with a majority of about 1 including the most duplicitous party on earth (DUP) and a party uniquely at war with itself (Tory) the bar for success can't be set all that high.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    TOPPING said:

    moonshine said:

    What if Boris draws a childish sketch of macron’s genitals over the letter before sending it? I can’t think of many better ideas right now, detoxifying Corbyn by going into an election with him as sitting PM seems almost as bad as the impeachment route.

    Good to see that your post after self-imposed exile is raising the intellectual bar.

    ;)
    A day watching helicopter videos with a toddler, rather than Beth Rigby on Sky and people on the internet being angry, gives a useful sense of perspective.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    nunuone said:

    nunuone said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Can they simply abstain?
    Not if the Conservative benches vote against, no!
    So boris simply needs a simple majority of voting MP's to vote against him and the cooling off period starts?

    I cannot see the SNP *ever* voting that they have confidence in a Tory PM.

    Unless hell has well and truly frozen over.
    It does make the bar quite a bit lower!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
  • This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Then you don't understand political branding - Gordon Brown's marking as a "Bottler" inflicted permanent damage on his political credibility.

    I hope the Tories brand this particular cowardly chicken with all they've got!
  • On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752
  • Mr. Price, odds on a December election?
  • AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What precisely is the problem with a winter election ? The old dears tend to vote postally these days.

    A really bad day on Election Day in weather terms could impact turnout and casts questions about the legitimacy of the result.

    Just needs it to be really wet, windy, very cold, or snowy and it’ll be anarchy particularly in rural seats.

    Could impact the ability of people manning the polling stations.
    You make it sound like we're still living in the middle ages.
    Well..

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/gallery/2015/may/07/weird-wonderful-polling-stations-in-pictures
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Dom proved to his own satisfaction in 2016 that nobody ever lost a national vote by underestimating the stupidity of the voter.

    Off-topic:

    A few days ago I mentioned that much of my village lost landline phone and/or Internet for six days after thieves pinched a load of cables. We lost our landline, but fortunately t'Internet remained.

    Guess what? Cables have been stolen again, and much of the village is again without landline or t'Internet. Fortunately for all of you, we currently have both. ;)

    The Scrap Metal Dealers Act 2013 really needs to be enforced or tightened up, as the money these little scrotes get from the metal is orders of magnitude less than the disruption caused. Witness also lead from church rooves.

    Roofs.
    I wondered if I'd trigger anyone with that. ;)

    'Rooves' is archaic, but I keep on coming across it in old books. It seems fitting to use it in relation to churches...
    Tolkien got very exercised over dwarfs/dwarves. Proof readers kept changing it and he kept changing it back (? because he wanted to differentiate his sort from Snow White's?)
  • Mr. Price, odds on a December election?

    3.0 - 4.0 on Betfair now
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited September 2019
    ..
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    blueblue said:

    This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Then you don't understand political branding - Gordon Brown's marking as a "Bottler" inflicted permanent damage on his political credibility.

    I hope the Tories brand this particular cowardly chicken with all they've got!
    blueblue said:

    This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Then you don't understand political branding - Gordon Brown's marking as a "Bottler" inflicted permanent damage on his political credibility.

    I hope the Tories brand this particular cowardly chicken with all they've got!
    Anybody with half an ounce of intelligence knows he’s doing the right thing and why that’s why the marketing might work
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What precisely is the problem with a winter election ? The old dears tend to vote postally these days.

    A really bad day on Election Day in weather terms could impact turnout and casts questions about the legitimacy of the result.

    Just needs it to be really wet, windy, very cold, or snowy and it’ll be anarchy particularly in rural seats.

    Could impact the ability of people manning the polling stations.
    You make it sound like we're still living in the middle ages.
    Well..

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/gallery/2015/may/07/weird-wonderful-polling-stations-in-pictures
    My parents' caravan was used as a polling station in a County Council election.
  • blueblue said:

    This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Then you don't understand political branding - Gordon Brown's marking as a "Bottler" inflicted permanent damage on his political credibility.

    I hope the Tories brand this particular cowardly chicken with all they've got!
    Gordon Brown actually bottled the election, then had to call one when he ran out of time. Jeremy Corbyn is just leaving the guy dangling there until the time of his choosing, when he can take the initiative to kill the government and call an election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    nunuone said:

    nunuone said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Can they simply abstain?
    Not if the Conservative benches vote against, no!
    So boris simply needs a simple majority of voting MP's to vote against him and the cooling off period starts?

    I cannot see the SNP *ever* voting that they have confidence in a Tory PM.

    Unless hell has well and truly frozen over.
    And Ken? And Grieve? Soubry? Wollaston?

    If that was how Boris got his election - by using their animosity against him - even his fiercest detractors would have to admit, that is fucking A1 brilliant, Mr. Cummins.....
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    blueblue said:

    This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Then you don't understand political branding - Gordon Brown's marking as a "Bottler" inflicted permanent damage on his political credibility.

    I hope the Tories brand this particular cowardly chicken with all they've got!
    The 2008 GFC had a bigger impact on Brown's electability, don't you think?
  • blueblue said:

    This stuff is mega cringe.

    I don't really understand the point of this because at some point (GONU notwithstanding) Corbyn is going to walk out and announce that he's bring the government down to force an election, thus kicking off the campaign, and at that point he is obviously not a chicken.
    Then you don't understand political branding - Gordon Brown's marking as a "Bottler" inflicted permanent damage on his political credibility.

    I hope the Tories brand this particular cowardly chicken with all they've got!
    No, not really, only in the minds of the simple. Gordon Brown's standing was damaged because he was crap, had no strategy and only wanted the job because he felt entitled to it, as it was "his turn". Now, I wonder who that reminds me of.....
  • Mr. Price, hmm.

    It does seem credible. Not crazy about the odds, though.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
    Based on what?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019

    nunuone said:

    nunuone said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Seems obvious. The opposition votes it has confidence in Boris.

    Politically embarrassing. But less so than an election not at a time of its choosing?
    Can they simply abstain?
    Not if the Conservative benches vote against, no!
    So boris simply needs a simple majority of voting MP's to vote against him and the cooling off period starts?

    I cannot see the SNP *ever* voting that they have confidence in a Tory PM.

    Unless hell has well and truly frozen over.
    And Ken? And Grieve? Soubry? Wollaston?

    If that was how Boris got his election - by using their animosity against him - even his fiercest detractors would have to admit, that is fucking A1 brilliant, Mr. Cummins.....
    If they VONC him the rebel alliance immediately submit a voc in someone and they become pm
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
    Based on what?
    Well judging by today's rulings and the written rule that the PM only can agree an EU extension I'd say there is little parliament can do about it other than vote for an election.
  • Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
    A bit unprecedented and unedifying. A PM in court trying to justify his non-compliance. Not a good look, piled on his previous contemptuous behaviour to parliament.
  • FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nichomar said:

    Simple question Johnson resigns Queen invites corbyn to for government as PM no need to have support from anyone else. Goes to Brussels requests extension comes back and seeks 2/3 majority for GE. what is wrong with that

    Everything would work up tp 2/3 majority for a general election.

    Once in power he'd take root there... Certainly through the Winter and possibly beyond.
    VONC is easily done.
    Not sure it would pass .I can see Corbyn doing a deal with the SNP in return for second Indy .Are all the Tory defectors going to vote for an immediate GE that will cost most of them their seats? LDs who knows?
    LDs would VONC Corbyn to keep Tory Remainers voting for them.

    Tory rebels are mostly standing down anyway and would VONC Corbyn post extension
    Once again.

    Only the LotO can propose a VONC.
    Not true. Callaghan called some on himself.
    20/07/77
    14/12/78

    Callaghan called confidence votes on these days.
    Those were votes of Confidence not NO Confidence!

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02873/SN02873.pdf
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    He could take the Chiltern Hundreds.

    Or he could get around 250 of his MPs to resign the whip, install one of them as the new Leader of the Opposition, and then get one of them to call a VoNC.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    nico67 said:

    Legally if any of the wording does not follow that within the FTPA then even if the government loses a VONC this nullifies the motion and a general election doesn’t happen .

    Therefore if MPs can amend the motion they can vote against the government so it loses and an election still won’t happen .

    Chortle. Gotta love this stuff.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just ask: has Boris said in clear terms that he will refuse to comply with the Benn Act once it becomes law?

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act. May as well ignore it. Think the courts will side with him.
    A bit unprecedented and unedifying. A PM in court trying to justify his non-compliance. Not a good look, piled on his previous contemptuous behaviour to parliament.
    Well they've already tried to get him to court and failed. Judging by today its Gina Miller and John Major who are getting the backlash rather than Boris. It's hard to see how they could force an extension with the EU through the courts.
  • algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    You can't 'simply' resign as PM. There must always be one.

    If he did, then Lizzie would be honour bound to immediately send for Corbyn as LoO, unless the tories had a very quick meeting with a new leader in place, which is highely unlikely.

  • Great post, Alastair.

    I’ve done the same. My bigger play is laying 2019, and staying neutral(ish) on December.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brom said:

    Nothing for Boris to gain for complying with the Benn act.

    Apart from staying out of jail
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    @Scott_P :D:D this country ffs
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Jesus, this is a new low. Absolutely pathetic stunt – and, more to the point, the chicken looks inedible.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    He could take the Chiltern Hundreds.

    Or he could get around 250 of his MPs to resign the whip, install one of them as the new Leader of the Opposition, and then get one of them to call a VoNC.
    Why doesn't he resign and suggest Tom Watson as successor? Would plunge Labour into civil war.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    The outgoing Prime Minister does not have to recommend a successor and neither is the Queen obliged to accept a nomination although it would be the convention to do so.
  • algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    There is never a vacancy in the office of PM - if Johnson resigns and refuses to stay on as caretaker pending a successor being found HM would have to send for someone else - Corbyn presumably - who would be appointed and remain in office until brought down by a VONC. He would have full authority to write the extension letter since it will be mandated by an act of parliament.
  • On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    Id imagine elections in December or August would produce quite different results purely from the impact of daylight and weather on mood and who is away on holiday.

    Not sure who it is good or bad for in current circumstances though!
  • Live now to the HoC where Jeremy Corbyn is making an important intervention...

    "On a point of order, Mr Speaker.. can the right hon gentleman confirm that this is, in fact, *grilled* chicken, and is just further evidence that THIS TORY GOVERNMENT can't even lie very well."
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I think the route has to be
    The VONC approach - state parliament must Express whether it has confidence in the government given the impasse and if they vote confidence in him.....
    Resign and tell HM to summon Corbyn and watch the opposition vote him down in panic
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477


    Jesus, this is a new low. Absolutely pathetic stunt – and, more to the point, the chicken looks inedible.
    And yet journalists are talking about Corbyn in the context of being a chicken on social media....
  • Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    He could take the Chiltern Hundreds.

    Or he could get around 250 of his MPs to resign the whip, install one of them as the new Leader of the Opposition, and then get one of them to call a VoNC.
    Why doesn't he resign and suggest Tom Watson as successor? Would plunge Labour into civil war.
    That would be akin to naming my cat as PM. Lizzie would ignore him.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    Id imagine elections in December or August would produce quite different results purely from the impact of daylight and weather on mood and who is away on holiday.

    Not sure who it is good or bad for in current circumstances though!
    You'd think more Tories away in December?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    JackW said:

    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    The unanswered question by all those who are going to ensure on Monday that Boris doesn't get his General Election remains what if he tells the HoC to feck itself and even with the Surrender Bill he isn't going to seek an extension. On 14th October they would have to move for a VONC and he then gets a fortnight to form his government again and then another VONC and is the HoC really going to put Corbyn in?

    If Boris does not request an extension he will be breaking the new law. I know he’s got cojones but I can’t see him seeking arrest. He therefore has to resign. Which means Corbyn PM, or a different caretaker.
    This is why the smart move is that Boris calls a confidence motion in himself on Monday (only needs simple majority to pass, which I think he would just squeak). Start the ball rolling on the 14 days, might get Corbs or another caretaker but the extension is then on them, not Boris. Put the impetus back on the opposition who a week or so ago couldn’t agree a suitable alternative PM candidate.
    Or most simply just resign as PM and await consequences.

    Wouldn’t the Queen refuse his resignation unless he recommended a successor and then they would legally have to ask for an extension?

    No VOC required.
    The outgoing Prime Minister does not have to recommend a successor and neither is the Queen obliged to accept a nomination although it would be the convention to do so.
    Same effect though. Even if he does resign, there will be a Prime Minister who will be obligated to request an extension.
  • On topic, and suggesting Alastair may be onto a winner:
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169975777603018752


    Seems unlikely that we'd have an election in December which could well be compromised by snowfall (see my post above).
    As could one in January or February (more likely given historical snowfall). As could one in June be affected by flooding. If we need an election, and we do, then worrying about one day's weather is ridiculous. Postal votes exist and can be applied for right this moment if voters are worried about the risk.
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