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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No-vember election. A betting tip
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No-vember election. A betting tip
Picture: On the pavement in Parliament Square. Credit John Rentoul.
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How many elections have happened between November to March over the years?
If BoZo was serious, he would be burning the midnight oil in London and Brussels trying to find a replacement for the backstop, rather than interviewing on Scottish hillsides.
I continue to like 2020.
Denmark and Vermont said they weren't going to have slavery. We stopped it. We used our Empire and forced other nations to stop. Did Vermont do that?
The next likely extension - to January 31st - implies that mid Jan would be a good bet? No party would want to face the cliff edge, again, without having faced the voters first.
Boris will obviously frame Parliament as the reason for his abject failure which is of course an utter lie - but then again what would you expect from a perennial liar.
The fact such a solution does not exist is the whole point.
14/12/78
Callaghan called confidence votes on these days.
https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1169955425070067715?s=21
Eton 7/4
Anywhere else 2/5
https://sports.betway.com/en/sports/evt/4420768
The most prominent Etonian is Boris himself, though he will not be next leader by definition.
Then there are, in the order they occur to me because I am too busy to research this properly or even sort them into alphabetical order:
Jo Johnson, Kwasi Karteng, Jesse Norman and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Rory Stewart, Oliver Letwin, Nicholas Soames and Zac Goldsmith.
Bim Afolami, Philip Dunne, Richard Graham and Hugo Swire.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, David Tredinnick, Nick Hurd and Henry Bellingham.
AND SOME OTHERS since I vaguely recall there are 20 or so.
As you can see, they are a most unlikely bunch.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/05/who-knows-what-dominic-cummings-is-really-up-to
Namely the weather . There could be problems and this could cause issues with any poll.
For that reason , I expect an election in early November .
“Ultimately, the Prime Minister has it in his power to make sure that the UK does not get an extension (even while fulfilling his legal duty to request one) by making certain demands that the EU is bound to refuse.“
Conversely, the British Empire abolished slavery in “most” of the territory it controlled. The Slavery Abolition Act 1833 kept slavery intact in territories controlled by a the British East India Company (which it could have done clearly), as well as Ceylon and St Helena. In your beloved Australia, blackbirding and the holding of indigenous workers' pay "in trust" continued, in some instances into the 1970s. So no, we did not completely “stop” slavery and our forcing of other nations to do so was selective at best. And it doesn’t make up for us being one of the original, and definitely the most prolific, slave trading nations on earth in the 200 years previously.
- Go to the European Council meeting on October 17th
- Say that as Parliament has tied his hands, there's no point extending so he will revoke Article 50
- Call an election and blame the Remainers for blocking Brexit
- Win majority on a manifesto of doing Brexit properly
- Create commission to look at Brexit options and kick the whole thing into the long grass
So the decision to have a long prorogation seems to have achieved the following:
* engendered widespread allegations about coups, threat to democracy, embarrassing HM etc etc and diminishing even further Johnson's reputation for trustworthiness, having denied it was going to happen only hours before it happened;
* forced all the opposition parties and rebel Tories to bury their differences and come together behind a coherent and workable strategy to prevent no deal;
* the expulsion of long-serving Tory MPs, Churchill's grandson included, and the PM's own brother accusing him of abandoning the national interest;
* an even greater degree of mistrust between the EU and the UK government;
* the transformation of the opposition parties from a warring rabble of disunited factions into a coherent political force clearly in charge of the parliamentary agenda;
* the transformation of the Tories from a coherent political force into a warring rabble of disunited factions which has clearly lost control of the parliamentary agenda;
* closed off any possibility of Johnson being able to deliver on his threats of an early election.
I wonder how all this fits into the great strategic plan that we have been assured the government is working to?
We should perhaps be apologetic about the fact that when we paid 'compensation' it wasn't to the slaves, who were left to get on with it, but to the slave owners.
Then what, Remainers?
If it did, it would mean an election because Parliament is prorogued afterwards and therefore there is no time to form another government.
Just needs it to be really wet, windy, very cold, or snowy and it’ll be anarchy particularly in rural seats.
Could impact the ability of people manning the polling stations.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169616435351568384
That will go down well with the voters.
Nothing in that letter procludes Boris from for example asking for an extension with zero contributions.
Ok, I know the optics work the other way too, but I think there is the risk of some people sitting on their hands in such a situation and therefore letting it squeak though.
Nigel Farage
This bill will now become part of those arrangements. The letter is the letter.
A few days ago I mentioned that much of my village lost landline phone and/or Internet for six days after thieves pinched a load of cables. We lost our landline, but fortunately t'Internet remained.
Guess what? Cables have been stolen again, and much of the village is again without landline or t'Internet. Fortunately for all of you, we currently have both.
The Scrap Metal Dealers Act 2013 really needs to be enforced or tightened up, as the money these little scrotes get from the metal is orders of magnitude less than the disruption caused. Witness also lead from church rooves.
Boris's election strategy is to nullify TBP and hoover up leave voters against a split remain vote.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/?dd=2019-09-06&division=2
If they don’t well, that’s another issue isn’t it.
So if Bozo tried this opposition MPs could amend that .
Wor Dom is probably behind the cunning plan.
Separately if Boris does resign as PM - but not party leader - what are the next steps?
Usually it would be a nominated successor from government who would be deemed to have confidence...
I could see an argument that Boris could recommend someone from the Tory ranks and make the argument they should have first go as they are a member of the party with (I think!!) most seats. So someone goes before Corbyn. (Assuming Boris wants this... may be someone like Fallon who has said he is retiring at the next election...£)
But how is that Confidence tested...? As I said it would usually be deemed unless proven otherwise in a VoNC. But here it’s not the case necessarily... but there would need to be a rock solid certainty that Corbyn would have Confidence before he could take up the role...
We haven't always seen eye to eye over the years (to say the least!) but Casino has been pretty incisive and impressive on this election timing business and betting opportunities.
I think the next question is – are we really going to have an election in December? There are only two viable Thursdays (5 Dec and 12 Dec) and in any case they are in the thick dark of winter.
2019 might be a lay...?
Only two years ago, much of the country, include parts of the SE, was buried in snow at this time (10 December 2017) which would, as Eagles rightly says, have caused utter havoc and placed the legitimacy of the result in question.