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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson ignores the no deal law then 50/1 on him bein

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Chris said:

    If I could offer a suggestion to those who are currently utterly giddy with every rumour and tweet relating to the goings on in parliament.

    Stand back and have a look at the bigger picture.

    Perhaps even chat with normal people who have rounded lives and don't sit obsessing about politics.

    I think you might find that the wider perception is more like:

    1. Johnson is trying to get Brexit through

    2. Parliament are stopping him implementing the referendum result


    For the vast majority of normal people it goes no deeper than that.

    Which is why the swivel-eyed headbangers on here are in all likelihood going to get an enormous shock the morning after the GE.

    a lot of truth in that

    here we analyse the inside of a maggots arse. Most of it is just wasted pixels.

    In the wider world there is a much simpler narrative people just arent that interested in politics/
    Just as there is an extremely simple narrative within a herd of lemmings, of course.
    or labour voters
  • I reserve the right to laugh myself to death if the PCP returns to reason and subjects the PM to a no confidence vote. :p

    Don't think it'll happen immediately, mind.

    If there wasn't so much at stake the Brexit psychodrama would be the most hilarious thing ever.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Nigelb said:
    A fight for the soul of the party. May common sense prevail

    Accept Bill and get RA

    Reinstate the mps

    Seek an election for the 15th October

    All on monday

    And then prorogue parliament
    Hammond, Stewart and so many others have been thrown out, and you're still a member??
  • Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    There's no border posts.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

    The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

    This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

    I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

    I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

    1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

    What utter crap, the latest poll gives a 10% Tory lead what clueless diehard Remainers like you cannot understand is the people have had enough, they are fed up with being patronised by the likes of you and by a Commons which refuses to respect their Leave vote which is why Boris will win the next general election and crush Corbyn Labour once and for all into the bargain
    And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.

    Yes when Johnson wins his majority, you get on with life and watch.
    What else can you do ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    There's no border posts.
    More importantly it reduces smuggling
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    No it is great news for Boris, Parliament blocking the will of the people and defying 17 million Leave voters as the Tories poll lead grows further
    It is clear from last night's YouGov poll that by some considerable margin the mood of the public is to view the actions of Remainer MPs blocking no deal as undemocratic, and their actions are indeed now in plain view for all to see.

    Furthermore, the Conservatives amongst them have now given Johnson good reason to act against them. If Johnson was going to lose the Commons stage of the bill to stop "no deal", and he always was whatever he did, it was surely better for him to lose it by a bigger margin than a smaller one. The opposition to him from diehard Remainer Conservative MPs was always there but now 22 have been smoked out and have lost the whip. The opportunity will be there quite shortly to replace them with MPs who back Johnson's stance. The alternative might have been that only those MPs (such as Soames) who intended to stand down rebelled, sufficient for the bill still to pass but still leaving the likes of Hammond and Gauke in place after the next election.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Chris said:

    Keep buying the baked beans.

    Did I hear baked beans? 🙌
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    If the Brexit lords hold the no deal up, how will that help Johnson get his election ?
    As he has suspended parliament from next week.
  • Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Relevance?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    ab195 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unfortunately Nicola doesn't want to hang around until Labour's polls lead recovers. ;)
    Nicola + Boris isn't 440 MPs. And the FTPA requires 440 MPs to vote for an early election.
    But a one clause Bill doesn’t: and if they are agreed on the text it won’t be amended. If it looks likely, Corbyn will have to find a way to support.
    Where did this one clause Bill idea come from as it's not supported under the FTPA.

    "Alternatively, as the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush has noted, an election can be called by “passing a one-line bill stating that ‘notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next election will be on X, the FTPA act will continue to apply otherwise” (one route Theresa May considered in 2017)."


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/how-general-election-called
    And thus the supermajority provision in the FTPA is effectively worthless, because it can be set aside by a simple majority. Boris Johnson's problem is, of course, that he doesn't have even a simple majority that will support him, hence the fact that neither this route nor the mechanism of simply no-confidencing himself are available to him.

    For supermajorities to be effective, e.g. as used for some decisions in the US Congress, they need to be contained within constitutions or basic laws that a legislature can't simply amend or repeal entirely under its own authority.
    The supermajority is for a motion in the Commons alone.

    Your simple majority would require the Lords to vote for it too, which they would be in their right not to do if the simple majority were being used to dodge the supermajority. (Though I'd back repeal of the FTPA anyway).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    GIN1138 said:

    eek said:

    ab195 said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Unfortunately Nicola doesn't want to hang around until Labour's polls lead recovers. ;)
    Nicola + Boris isn't 440 MPs. And the FTPA requires 440 MPs to vote for an early election.
    But a one clause Bill doesn’t: and if they are agreed on the text it won’t be amended. If it looks likely, Corbyn will have to find a way to support.
    Where did this one clause Bill idea come from as it's not supported under the FTPA.

    "Alternatively, as the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush has noted, an election can be called by “passing a one-line bill stating that ‘notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next election will be on X, the FTPA act will continue to apply otherwise” (one route Theresa May considered in 2017)."


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/how-general-election-called
    And thus the supermajority provision in the FTPA is effectively worthless, because it can be set aside by a simple majority. Boris Johnson's problem is, of course, that he doesn't have even a simple majority that will support him, hence the fact that neither this route nor the mechanism of simply no-confidencing himself are available to him.

    For supermajorities to be effective, e.g. as used for some decisions in the US Congress, they need to be contained within constitutions or basic laws that a legislature can't simply amend or repeal entirely under its own authority.
    The supermajority is for a motion in the Commons alone.

    Your simple majority would require the Lords to vote for it too, which they would be in their right not to do if the simple majority were being used to dodge the supermajority. (Though I'd back repeal of the FTPA anyway).
    Lords would block the Commons voting for an election?
  • AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    I would prefer a deal but think no options are good.

    The chance of a deal is better if Boris wins a decent majority and an extension has been agreed before the election than it would have been without an election.

    Also if we are going to actually no deal it is better with a govt majority than a minority, and it is better with a mandate than no mandate. The voters, the PM and his party will have to own it and its outcomes.

    So in terms of Brexit outcomes it would be no worse than we were a month ago. However the disappointment would be that the country rewards recklessness, dishonesty, disloyalty and cowardice with a comfortable majority.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.

    Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.
    Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.

    Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.
  • Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    There's no border posts.
    It's not just a question of avoiding border posts.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    maybe we should just actually fall back to betting alternatives.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Yorkcity said:

    If the Brexit lords hold the no deal up, how will that help Johnson get his election ?
    As he has suspended parliament from next week.

    And what difference would it really make? What would there be to stop the bill from being passed when parliament returns in October?
  • TOPPING said:

    And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.

    How can you say that? Maybe he approves of the Tories' current policies and plans.

    That surely, makes it his party?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    If I could offer a suggestion to those who are currently utterly giddy with every rumour and tweet relating to the goings on in parliament.

    Stand back and have a look at the bigger picture.

    Perhaps even chat with normal people who have rounded lives and don't sit obsessing about politics.

    I think you might find that the wider perception is more like:

    1. Johnson is trying to get Brexit through

    2. Parliament are stopping him implementing the referendum result


    For the vast majority of normal people it goes no deeper than that.

    Which is why the swivel-eyed headbangers on here are in all likelihood going to get an enormous shock the morning after the GE.

    This is precisely what Johnson is relying on.

    That the average person is deeply average.

    And like you I expect him to be proved correct.

    But one lives in hope. One has to. What is the alternative?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Beef farming isn’t an area I know much about. Dairy, however I do know a bit and it’s doomed without a fix
  • AndyJS said:

    A different point of view to the majority on PB:

    "Why Remoaners are so terrified of a General Election
    These anti-democrats fear the judgement of the people. And they’re right to fear it.

    Brendan O'Neill"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/

    I wonder how long Brendan and his Revolutionary Communist Party pals will stick with Farage. I suspect Boris will soon be the new apple of their collective eye.
  • Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    There's no border posts.
    It's not just a question of avoiding border posts.
    You're right it is a question of looking for excuses to avoid Brexit.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:
    A fight for the soul of the party. May common sense prevail

    Accept Bill and get RA

    Reinstate the mps

    Seek an election for the 15th October

    All on monday

    And then prorogue parliament
    Hammond, Stewart and so many others have been thrown out, and you're still a member??
    Mr Big resigned this morning .... probably before Cummings and @HYUFD expelled him !!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
    That's one point of view. However, there seems to be the persistance of another group of countries, as reported by the Finnish FM today, who perceive a continuing deferral as damaging to the EU. Cummings and his famous wargames will presumably have been readied for either.
  • AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
    Of course they will give us unlimited extensions. It is better than no deal and we wont accept a deal.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    +1 Given how the last few days have panned out. I am genuinely afraid of what will happen in the future. BJ is behaving more like a dictator than the leader of a parliamentary democracy. As someone who is disabled, will I be safe in a Johnson Britain? I say this in all seriousness...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.

    I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2019

    Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.

    This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.

    A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.
    Words fail me.

    A bit strong eh?

    Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.

    Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.

    Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.

    And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
  • Does the General Election vote have a time?
  • Chris said:

    Yorkcity said:

    If the Brexit lords hold the no deal up, how will that help Johnson get his election ?
    As he has suspended parliament from next week.

    And what difference would it really make? What would there be to stop the bill from being passed when parliament returns in October?
    Time.

    You cannot get it back and Johnson will not get his election before Oct 31st. He will stay a lame duck.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.

    I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?
    But the SNP do?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    +1 Given how the last few days have panned out. I am genuinely afraid of what will happen in the future. BJ is behaving more like a dictator than the leader of a parliamentary democracy. As someone who is disabled, will I be safe in a Johnson Britain? I say this in all seriousness...
    A dictator who wants a general election. Lol
  • AndyJS said:

    A different point of view to the majority on PB:

    "Why Remoaners are so terrified of a General Election
    These anti-democrats fear the judgement of the people. And they’re right to fear it.

    Brendan O'Neill"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/

    If and when the Conservatives and Brexit party found themselves in opposition, Brendan O’Neill would be writing articles about how the British people didn’t deserve Brexit.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
    No country is going to want to leave when they see what happens to us after we leave
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    There's no border posts.
    At least you are beginning to understand the importance of border posts.

  • JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.

    Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.
    Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.

    Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.
    I didnt mean literally you dolt
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited September 2019

    AndyJS said:

    A different point of view to the majority on PB:

    "Why Remoaners are so terrified of a General Election
    These anti-democrats fear the judgement of the people. And they’re right to fear it.

    Brendan O'Neill"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/

    If and when the Conservatives and Brexit party found themselves in opposition, Brendan O’Neill would be writing articles about how the British people didn’t deserve Brexit.
    Brendan O'Neill is one of the ex-Living Marxism, now "Marxist progress"-cum-neoliberal crowd, is he not ? A very odd outfit.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Does the General Election vote have a time?

    Anytime from 20:30 depending on when this debate finishes
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.

    I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?
    Exactly, it does not make any sense. its one mistake after another! Still BJ makes people laugh :smile:

  • If and when the Conservatives and Brexit party found themselves in opposition, Brendan O’Neill would be writing articles about how the British people didn’t deserve Brexit.

    Good England.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.

    How can you say that? Maybe he approves of the Tories' current policies and plans.

    That surely, makes it his party?
    He is a remainer. As such he very much disapproves of the Tories' current plans.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.

    Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.
    Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.

    Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.
    I didnt mean literally you dolt
    Oh. Frayed nerves?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.

    I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?
    But the SNP do?
    Even they have said they won't be voting for the thing tonight.

    It's possible they're willing to vote for it after the No Deal Bill has been ratified next week, but I really doubt they would like the "optics" of being the only other party to side with a Tory PM (if they can convince Plaid Cymru and/or the Lib Dems to join them then it might be different).
  • TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    There's no border posts.
    At least you are beginning to understand the importance of border posts.

    I've always said there shouldn't be border posts though haven't I?

    Have you even ONCE seen me say border posts owuld be a good idea? I've said all along border posts both could and should be avoided via other means like this.
  • AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
    No. They want us to Leave on our terms and therefore for the UK to own the consequences. They do not want to be stuck with the charge that they caused any future issues because they are well aware that they would be used as the bogeyman by the UK.
  • eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
    No country is going to want to leave when they see what happens to us after we leave
    Even before maybe
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Scott_P said:
    But did he wargame victory or a catastrophic defeat?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited September 2019
    I don’t think the Libdems have too much to fear, politically, from an election. They just need to hold their nerve and commit to campaigning hard, everywhere, even in supposed Con/lab marginals.

    Just a shame they went for Swinson over Dave.
  • Evening all.

    Politics is piss funny at the moment. Literally. Had to work very hard not to see whilst driving up the M1 at lunchtime listening to Bozo make Jezbollah sound like a statesman.

    The government are literally in office and not in power. By tonight they will have been compelled to do something they don't want to do and forced to remain in office when they want an election. Ordinarily this would be stupid, but as the clock is running down and there isnt time for an election OR consensus about an alternative government made up of the same MPs, here we are.

    Question- now that the Father of the House is an Independent, would that make him more palatable as an interim PM before an election where he isn't standing and has no party?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    AndyJS said:

    Byronic said:

    Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)

    https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true

    “There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”

    They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.
    The length of extension matters. Too short and it forces the same situation again. Too long and it is seen as trying to cancel Brexit.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Relevance?
    if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the question
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

    The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

    This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

    I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

    I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

    1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

    What utter crap, the latest poll gives a 10% Tory lead what clueless diehard Remainers like you cannot understand is the people have had enough, they are fed up with being patronised by the likes of you and by a Commons which refuses to respect their Leave vote which is why Boris will win the next general election and crush Corbyn Labour once and for all into the bargain
    You're losing it. Your man turned out not to be the Messiah just a rather bumptious and unpleasant politician.
  • felix said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.
    And many other examples. Typical Remainer myopia.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729

    Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.

    This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.

    A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.
    Words fail me.

    A bit strong eh?

    Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.

    Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.

    Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.

    And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
    There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    kinabalu said:

    If I could offer a suggestion to those who are currently utterly giddy with every rumour and tweet relating to the goings on in parliament.

    Stand back and have a look at the bigger picture.

    Perhaps even chat with normal people who have rounded lives and don't sit obsessing about politics.

    I think you might find that the wider perception is more like:

    1. Johnson is trying to get Brexit through

    2. Parliament are stopping him implementing the referendum result


    For the vast majority of normal people it goes no deeper than that.

    Which is why the swivel-eyed headbangers on here are in all likelihood going to get an enormous shock the morning after the GE.

    This is precisely what Johnson is relying on.

    That the average person is deeply average.

    And like you I expect him to be proved correct.

    But one lives in hope. One has to. What is the alternative?
    I wouldn't recommend using that as a campaigning slogan..

    Regardless of the rights, wrongs and potential impact of Brexit the wider perception does appear to be precisely what is happening.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Benn Bill becoming law is still likely but certainly not a slam dunk.

    There's a Betfair market on it - Benn Bill to get Royal Assent in 2019:

    Yes 1.4 / 1.5
    No 3.0 / 3.75
  • Chris said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.

    Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.
    Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.

    Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.
    I didnt mean literally you dolt
    Oh. Frayed nerves?
    Not at all. Looking forward to the surprise Remainers are going to get when the little people they so despise and ignore get their say again.
  • Mr. Smith, no idea, I'm afraid.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.

    How can you say that? Maybe he approves of the Tories' current policies and plans.

    That surely, makes it his party?
    He is a remainer. As such he very much disapproves of the Tories' current plans.
    I don't understand why you keep up this line against HYUFD. It's so weird
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    AndyJS said:
    Perhaps if Boles hadn't behaved like a total dick in 2016 we wouldn't be in this position.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Either you, the guardian or Carney is wrong. Or all of you. See my recent post

    It depends what timescale you look at. Yes it's lost growth if you look far enough out, but to get there you have substantial downturn first.
    Hahaha. I pwned the great Nabavi. All your base are belong to I. Etc

    But it’s an understandable error. That is truly shit reporting by the Guardian. Making lost growth look like absolute shrinkage? TSK
    You are quibbling over details. To people losing jobs because of it, they will not gave a d*mn which category the recession belongs to.
    You don’t understand basic economics. There is a WORLD of difference between 5% shrinkage in absolute GDP, and a 5% opportunity cost in lost growth
    If I lose my job because of it, why would I care which category it belongs in?

    What difference would it make? I would still be unemployed.
    Finally a remain voter is in the mindset of the people who voted Leave because of the mass immigration of cheap EU labour
    Is the average EU migrant earning more or less than you, I wonder?
    Me personally? It depends which year

    But the pressure put on wages, job security & state services added to the rapid change in their neighbourhood demographic were the equivalent of a No Deal Brexit on the lowest paid British workers from 2004-2016, that's why they voted Leave, and the lack of negative impact on richer Brits was the reason they didn't/don't understand the problem with FOM

    Except the highest Brexit votes were in areas of low EU immigration. The laces where most EU immigrants tend to settle voted Remain.

    Boston was the highest Brexit vote wasnt it?
  • Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Relevance?
    if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the question
    We’re not talking about agriculture. If you understood you wouldn’t be talking about beef farming.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    DanSmith said:

    How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?
    Very.....
  • MikeL said:

    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!

    No
  • GIN1138 said:



    Unfortunately Nicola doesn't want to hang around until Labour's polls lead recovers. ;)

    That is indeed a significant consideration. The SNP is the joker in the pack here. Given the Scottish polls they must want an immediate election so long as they can dodge the accusation that in forcing one they are ensuring that the UK will leave on 31st October. With an early election they then (1) pick up swathes of seats and (2) even if the UK does leave they also think that Scotland would then be more likely to secede from the UK. Whatever the SNP may say publically about Brexit, they may even be quite happy to facilitate Brexit so long as they can escape responsibility for doing so.

    Hence the SNP should be quite capable of voting for any bespoke government bill that sought to force a general election on a named date before 31st October and put aside the provisions of the FTPA in doing so. Whether we left would still depend on the outcome of the election. And if the Lords did reject it then there would be a Commons majority for telling the Lords to think again.
  • felix said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    How will it be any different from what we are going through now?

    We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.

    If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
    You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.
    I see you missed the subclause "in general"...
  • MikeL said:

    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!

    No
    Why not?
  • ab195 said:

    So thinking of the next two or three days only, correct me if I’m wrong but election wise it seems to look like this:

    - Boris wants an election, and we can assume his 289 loyal MPs (and the DUP) would vote for it.

    - Corbyn might want an election, but many of his backbenchers don’t. He seems to be saying yes, once the Queen signs the Act. Many of his backbenchers say not until after 31 Oct. They will abstain tonight be who knows about Fri/Mon.

    - The SNP will vote for one once the Queen signs the Act. Presumably because they stand to gain massively.

    - The LibDem position is unclear. The might be amenable as they stand to gain.

    - Presumably most independents would be against both on the Brexit grounds and because they’d lose their seats. Woodcock and similar might vote for it as a way of binning Corbyn.

    Is that about right? That being the case a 15 Oct election looks like a 60% chance because of Corbyn, the SNP, and the one clause Bill route. But who knows?

    Not sure the DUP will be pleased at all with a GE (and they may not support no deal when push comes to shove, despite being pro Brexit and against the possible deals).
    Correct.

    The DUP are not keen on fighting a surging Alliance.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    AndyJS said:

    How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?

    This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.

    Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.
    Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.

    Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.
    I didnt mean literally you dolt
    Oh. Frayed nerves?
    Not at all. Looking forward to the surprise Remainers are going to get when the little people they so despise and ignore get their say again.
    Well, no one really knows what will happen if there's an election, but I'm sure it's a mistake to take the electorate for granted, even if you do view them as just "little people."
  • DanSmith said:

    How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?
    Very.....
    If Labour reject an election then for the first time ever I hope the unelected Lords succeed in blocking the law. The undemocratic charge rather fails when the opposition are literally rejecting an election.
  • Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Relevance?
    if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the question
    Why do you waste your time here? You have so much expertise in argiculture and manufacturing. The govt needs you.

    Would it help if we obtained a large poster of a mustachioed Boris pointing at you and a "You govt needs you" slogan?

    :D:D:D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    AndyJS said:
    Winston Churchill would have turfed Soames out on his ear for taking his orders from Berlin....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.

    This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.

    A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.
    Words fail me.

    A bit strong eh?

    Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.

    Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.

    Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.

    And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
    There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.
    Oddly enough it was that very episode which made me suddenly realise how Scotland and Britain were diverging in their attitudes to national symbols of this kind. I was struck how little account was being taken by the wider populace, and it wasn't just because of the identity of the particular satrap making this generous gift to the Scots of what was their own to begin with. Yet it didn't stop the Scots from voting for devolution a few years later.

    I have a memory of watching the film of the procession up the High Street, mostly in silence by a very thin crowd, and Mr Forsyth passing in solitary splendour, bekilted.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Beef farming isn’t an area I know much about. Dairy, however I do know a bit and it’s doomed without a fix
    So's beef in ireland

    the problems are the same supermarkets pushing down prices and processors squeezing farmers. The only difference is while HmG pretends its gives a shit Varadkar doesnt.
  • Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.

    This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.

    A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.
    Words fail me.

    A bit strong eh?

    Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.

    Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.

    Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.

    And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
    There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.
    Fair doos. In a flippin Land Rover!! 😳

    Shame he repatriated it to the wrong bloody burgh. Twat.
  • Couldn't disagree more. Plenty of countries make referendums a key part of their legislation and do it very well. And your two examples of failure are spurious.

    In the case of the Scottish vote there is nothing problematic or inconsistent with having the SNP elected with one their policies being independence and then having that specific policy rejected by the electorate. They still have many other policies they can enact in Government. Moreover the alternative would be to say that the SNP should simply have declared independence without a referendum - something that at the time clearly had only minority support as we well know from the referendum itself.

    As far as Brexit is concerned I would suggest many of those MPs now obstructing or trying to reverse Brexit would never have got elected in 2015 had they been honest and said they would try to reverse the referendum.

    The problem is not referendums it is the MPs.

    In the case of Brexit, (most) MPs are obviously to a very large extent to blame for this mess - if, as seems pretty clear, the majority of them thought leaving the EU a disaster not to be contemplated, then they should never have voted to hold the referendum in the first place - but it doesn't solve the central problem of trying to treat our representatives as delegates.

    By voting contrary to what MPs were willing to stomach in a referendum, and then compounding the situation by voting in another contrarian Parliament, voters have created circumstances - and this isn't deliberate and isn't their fault, but it is what has come about nonetheless - in which continual corrosive damage to democracy is bound to result. We end up with a confused, dithering and impotent Parliament which contains a majority of members that wish either to comply with the instruction given in the referendum half-heartedly or not at all, and cannot agree on any resolution at all as a result. Meanwhile, a large chunk of the Leave electorate now feels insulted and robbed. It's madness.

    In Scotland the situation is somewhat different. Voters have rejected independence in a plebiscite, but keep returning secessionist Parliaments - there is sufficient support for one thing but not quite enough for the other. The risk is that, therefore, both Scotland and the rest of the UK become stuck in a rut: as long as this stalemate exists, the Scottish Government will keep trying to engineer independence referendums and the rest of the UK will be under constant threat of dissolution, with no idea as to if or when it might happen. It's not exactly ideal...
    But if you outlaw referendums the SNP would have a legitimate case fir simply declaring independence as soon as they were in power. Against the wishes of the majority.

    What should happen is that referendums should be binding. MPs should not be able to reject the result.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:
    What utter crap. Soames voted with the marxists and nationalists against his own party on a matter of confidence. He was told beforehand the consequences of doing so but continued nonetheless. Soames decided how to vote and owns the outturn.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited September 2019

    MikeL said:

    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!

    No
    Why not?
    The 14th is a Saturday but even then who is going to lay a bill. Certainly not the government

    Sorry my mistake, I misread it as the 14th September
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    MikeL said:

    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!

    No
    Presumably in that case the anti-No Deal majority in Parliament could still rescue the situation through the alternative means of VONCing Boris Johnson and installing an alternative PM (most likely Corbyn,) with an instruction to go and seek the A50 extension? If the EU27 want to grant it then they could call an emergency summit to deal with the situation on any date up to and including October 31st.
  • AndyJS said:
    Nobody forced Soames to defy a three line whip on an issue of confidence.

    Still not heard one person objecting to this confirm they'd have objected to seeing Cash or Redwood be thrown out if they'd voted against Maastricht on a confidence matter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    TGOHF said:
    As I said this morning, Corbyn has fucked this up.
  • Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.

    The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.

    This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.

    I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.

    I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.

    1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.

    What utter crap, the latest poll gives a 10% Tory lead what clueless diehard Remainers like you cannot understand is the people have had enough, they are fed up with being patronised by the likes of you and by a Commons which refuses to respect their Leave vote which is why Boris will win the next general election and crush Corbyn Labour once and for all into the bargain
    You're losing it. Your man turned out not to be the Messiah just a rather bumptious and unpleasant politician.
    Watch the polls this weekend .You may get a surprise .
  • AndyJS said:
    Winston Churchill would have turfed Soames out on his ear for taking his orders from Berlin....
    It is Boris who has trashed the Tory party to meet an arbitrary date that the UK govt did not even want and was set by the moody French president!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Gabs2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...
    I understand there are three areas at stake:

    - People
    - Customs
    - Live animals

    People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
    Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?
    you know little of beef farming
    Relevance?
    if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the question
    We’re not talking about agriculture. If you understood you wouldn’t be talking about beef farming.
    I was you werent. tough
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    DanSmith said:

    How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?
    Very.....
    If Labour reject an election then for the first time ever I hope the unelected Lords succeed in blocking the law. The undemocratic charge rather fails when the opposition are literally rejecting an election.
    Of course, "literally rejecting an election" is nothing at all out of the ordinary, or we'd be having one every month!

    Suspending parliament and frustrating the will of the Commons by filibustering n the Lords are somewhat rarer.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    DanSmith said:

    How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?
    Very.....
    When's the latest Corbyn can bring a motion of no confidence?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    DanSmith said:

    How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?
    Very.....
    I'm surprised. Couldn't the Remainer majority simply vote for each person advancing a wrecking amendment not to be heard, and then move immediately to a vote? Or is it simply the case that there are so many amendments to be considered that the entire process couldn't possibly be completed within the available time?
  • MikeL said:

    If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:

    Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?

    Maybe, maybe not!!!

    They would install a new PM to act in the same manner as the bill if it was needed.
This discussion has been closed.