Oh there's grumbling from some of the old Salmondites all right, but the point is they will not be "given the chance". She is completely in control. It's part of the SNP appeal.
No, not the Salmondites, on the process of how to get independence Sturgeon and Salmond are basically indistinguishable - slow and steady incrementalists.
I talking about the INDEPENDENCE NOW group who make up a significant proportion of the party and who are deeply unimpressed by the SNPs response to Brexit vis-a-vie facilitating independence. There are definitely MP/MSP who would happily make themselves the public head of that group and take leadership fo the party.
You have no idea what concrete proposals mean, do you? It takes months or years to sort out highly complex interactions. You simply cannot wait until 2 or 3 days before a meeting and go in there vaguely waving your hands in the air. That is what you do for ideas. Concrete proposals are several orders of magnitude more work.
No they don't.
If the Conservatives win a majority on 15 October then I'm expecting a concrete proposal along the lines of: Drop the backstop completely, agree a good faith pledge to work to keep an open border and immediately enter transition and work to agree the border during the future negotiations during the transition.
No. That is an idea, not a proposal.
A proposal would be Drop the backstop and replace it with this mechanism that works like this and can be installed by this date. The technology used will be this and that and the other and will cost £xxxx to shared according to the following schedule.
The following contractors have submitted bids to do this and the management structure will be this that and the other with company xx in this role, quango yy in that role etc.
The following documents lay out the timeline, the sites of hardware, the personnel involved, the costs, etc.
And so on.....
You know - actual work. People. Costs. Timescales. Expected difficulties. Workarounds.
Not "Look - give us what we want and we shall be good chaps"
+1. The biggest problem with people who believe in the Brexit fantasy is that they have not got a clue how to deliver anything in practice. If we have no-deal we will be in the weakest possible place to negotiate a subsequent trade deal with Europe. And deal we will, eventually, at massive cost to business and jobs. What a bunch of fuckwits!
I know I'm not the only poster here responsible for running and managing projects. Can anything think of an example from their own experience where stating an unmovable deadline "do or die" has ever made things happen? I certainly can't, a date doesn't deliver any work and it's the refuge of people out of their depth and unable to comprehend the work and risk involved in delivering the project.
Yes. Even in my line of work where a delay can cause drug production to stop, if something is not going to be ready, it’s not going to be ready, and everyone understands that as long as everyone involved is honest and transparent.
You have no idea what concrete proposals mean, do you? It takes months or years to sort out highly complex interactions. You simply cannot wait until 2 or 3 days before a meeting and go in there vaguely waving your hands in the air. That is what you do for ideas. Concrete proposals are several orders of magnitude more work.
No they don't.
If the Conservatives win a majority on 15 October then I'm expecting a concrete proposal along the lines of: Drop the backstop completely, agree a good faith pledge to work to keep an open border and immediately enter transition and work to agree the border during the future negotiations during the transition.
No. That is an idea, not a proposal.
A proposal would be Drop the backstop and replace it with this mechanism that works like this and can be installed by this date. The technology used will be this and that and the other and will cost £xxxx to shared according to the following schedule.
The following contractors have submitted bids to do this and the management structure will be this that and the other with company xx in this role, quango yy in that role etc.
The following documents lay out the timeline, the sites of hardware, the personnel involved, the costs, etc.
And so on.....
You know - actual work. People. Costs. Timescales. Expected difficulties. Workarounds.
Not "Look - give us what we want and we shall be good chaps"
+1. The biggest problem with people who believe in the Brexit fantasy is that they have not got a clue how to deliver anything in practice. If we have no-deal we will be in the weakest possible place to negotiate a subsequent trade deal with Europe. And deal we will, eventually, at massive cost to business and jobs. What a bunch of fuckwits!
I know I'm not the only poster here responsible for running and managing projects. Can anything think of an example from their own experience where stating an unmovable deadline "do or die" has ever made things happen? I certainly can't, a date doesn't deliver any work and it's the refuge of people out of their depth and unable to comprehend the work and risk involved in delivering the project.
I am and you're right. It's a farce.
But the over-riding fact is as outlined by Oliver Letwin yesterday. No Deal is worse for us than it is for the EU27.
I never thought I'd say this, but Corbyn looks accomplished and staesmanlike by comparison to Johnson.
No one cares what Isabel Oakeshott thinks. It only matters whether Farage decides he wants Brexit more than the opportunity to continue taking chunks out of the two main parties, or vice versa.
What Farage wants is not to be embarrassed and to be the centre of attention. That's why he ducked out of the 2017 general election. He could see what was coming for UKIP.
If he reckons that the Brexit Party will be squeezed by Johnson then he will find a way to stand aside rather than be humiliated with a national vote share of ~2%.
I think the Tories will get a short term bounce as almost all Leavers are furious "the will of the people" has been denied. I reckon 40%/ 23% / 17%/ 14%/6% gives Johnson a 17% lead at start of campaign.
I think in a 6 week campaign Con will stay in high 30s as they squeeze BXP 14% but lose moderates to all other parties. I think as campaign becomes about other issues and Lab Manifesto strikes a chord gap narrows as dramatically as in 2017 i reckon Lab 35% by end of campaign.
End result NOC Boris goes Corbyn goes if he isnt PM soft BREXIT GE in 2020
There are an equal number of furious Remainers who are livid that Johnson got us into this mess in the first place. He's now surrounded himself with Leavers and has nowhere to hide. The problem with your judgement as a Leaver is that you assume everyone thinks as you and your friends do. I make the same mistake. I don't know any Leavers so all I hear are people who think Johnson is the embodiment of a piece of shit.
Does anyone know what actually happens if: - Parliament passes law forcing Johnson to ask for and then accept an extension; - Johnson or AN Other PM duly asks the EU for an extension; - The EU turn it down on the grounds that it isn't explicitly to allow for a GE to take place, thus breaking the deadlock?
Does the prospective law then say the PM must revoke? Can they even do that?
Fundamentally, the issue remains that MPs don't seem to understand that to remove the threat of No Deal properly, they have to replace it with something.
They do, but apparently you don't, since you're still clinging onto this idea of a backstopless deal, which Boris and Cummings have long since given up on.
Corbyn isn't good, but compared to Johnson he seems almost competent. If an election is called and Corbyn manages to scrape together a government then it'll definitely be a case of the good old "oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them" phrase.
I wonder how widespread this view of Cummings is among Tory MPs. I always regarded Gale as a no fuss plodder, so for me this looks quite significant. But others will know a whole lot better. https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1169177243307757568
"The 1922 Committee is going to have to do something about it"
Wow. When is their next meeting? I wonder if Cummings Wargamed his expulsion?
As I said yesterday, cometh the hour, cometh the man.
They do, but apparently you don't, since you're still clinging onto this idea of a backstopless deal, which Boris and Cummings have long since given up on.
I don't think they have given up on it. I think they know the UK must be serious to get it.
We get a Tory majority then a backstopless agreement is very plausible. Opponents of it keep clinging to the ludicrous notion that "no deal is worse for us than them" rather than "they would rather no deal than an amended deal".
I agree no deal may be worse for us than them [though not if them is the Irish], but that is moot.
The basic problem is that posh MPs don't like taking orders from the voters. Unfortunately, for them, the voters think that's exactly what they should do after a referendum.
They do, but apparently you don't, since you're still clinging onto this idea of a backstopless deal, which Boris and Cummings have long since given up on.
I don't think they have given up on it. I think they know the UK must be serious to get it.
We get a Tory majority then a backstopless agreement is very plausible. Opponents of it keep clinging to the ludicrous notion that "no deal is worse for us than them" rather than "they would rather no deal than an amended deal".
I agree no deal may be worse for us than them [though not if them is the Irish], but that is moot.
Good to see you've already started to reverse-ferret on your earlier confident prediction that we'd get a deal. Now it's "plausible" subject to conditions.
No one cares what Isabel Oakeshott thinks. It only matters whether Farage decides he wants Brexit more than the opportunity to continue taking chunks out of the two main parties, or vice versa.
Since Isabel Oakeshott is Richard Tice's partner, we can reliably assume that she is accurately reflecting thinking at the top of the Brexit party.
That's fair (I'd remembered that but forgotten that Tice is a bit more to Farage than a pure figurehead).
However, I think Farage has opened the door to a conditional electoral pact with Johnson, and that Johnson is currently well on course for sticking to those preconditions. I don't see much evidence that he is likely to change his mind if it opens the door to a proper run at a few dozen inner city Labour seats.
Labour may live life to regret this. Does seem to be too clever by half. We shall see.
We will indeed.
I think it's smart to refuse the election unless a 31 Oct No Deal is ruled out. It looks like National Interest (i.e. can be spun that way) and it traps Johnson in an uncomfortable place.
It also kills off the conspiracy theory that Corbyn is working covertly to engineer a Tory Hard Brexit.
Yeah, it's pretty simple. 'Yes, you can have a GE but contact us again after October 31st because we don't trust you, lying bastard.'
That'll do it.
It's extraordinary that the great strategic minds that allegedly advise Johnson had apparently not noticed that his most significant weakness as a politician is a lack of trust on all levels, both personal and political. Scrupulous honesty from the outset was required to dispel that image. But his actions in office have magnified it a hundredfold and now he is not even trusted to set the date of an election. When the campaign finally materialises the other parties will have an open goal - "you can't trust Boris." Nobody believes a word he says. Simple and deadly.
Well, here we are, with our first Brexit party minority government, their reverse takeover of the Tories almost complete.
For all the shenanigans last night it seems to me that we still end up with a messy No Deal. What sort of government we end up with depends on when the GE is.
Those 21 Tory MPs who stood up for what they believed in deserve a great deal of kudos, especially those who know they are likely losing their jobs. It is a great pity they will not be in Parliament, doubtless being replaced by people either unable to think for themselves or prizing loyalty over integrity. Misplaced loyalty is not a virtue.
It is ironic that it is British democracy, so sneering of the EU and its approach to democracy and generally so admired around the world, which is being put under strain.
I rather feel that the biggest damage Brexit will do is not to our economy but to our way of doing politics - not our current structures but rather to a belief that political disputes and arguments need to be conducted in a way which understands that people have to live together afterwards, that a crushing your enemies mindset is fundamentally inimical to a democratic mindset.
I don’t have much hope that things will get better.
This "afraid of an election" line is really stupid because either we don't have an election- in which case persuading the public that Labour were afraid is irrelevant, because they won't get a chance to vote- or we do have an election in which case it's proven false.
This is utterly poor by Johnson. "His friends are in Tehran and Caracas." Oh for goodness' sake, the Conservatives have been hammering that line since Corbyn was first elected. It doesn't cut through.
Oh there's grumbling from some of the old Salmondites all right, but the point is they will not be "given the chance". She is completely in control. It's part of the SNP appeal.
No, not the Salmondites, on the process of how to get independence Sturgeon and Salmond are basically indistinguishable - slow and steady incrementalists.
I talking about the INDEPENDENCE NOW group who make up a significant proportion of the party and who are deeply unimpressed by the SNPs response to Brexit vis-a-vie facilitating independence. There are definitely MP/MSP who would happily make themselves the public head of that group and take leadership fo the party.
Oh, OK. I can understand the impatience, if not now, when, etc? But I can't imagine that we will see any real development until after the 2021 SP elections.
There has been talk of a Corbyn-SNP alliance in the event of a hung parliament granting a referendum but that will never pass the House because significant numbers of Labour MPs won't vote for it for the understandable reason that Brexit won't have happened (the cassus belli for IndyRef2) and some of them have a deep hatred of nationalism.
Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK
For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.
No, for a separatist party 49% for independence excuding Don't Knows is bad news.
In Quebec in 1995 the pro independence side had a narrow lead in final polls excluding Don't Knows in their second independence referendum but No won as Don't Knows went No and No won 51% to 49%.
Quebec has never had another independence referendum again and is now firmly in Canada with devomax
This is the SNP conundrum which is made more acute by the surprising fact that "Yes" has failed to break through the 50% barrier so far. This really ought to be peak polling for them. If they lose a second IndyRef its all over for them. Sturgeon, for all the rhetoric, is genuinely torn.
It would be "do or die" as there will certainly not be a third referendum as Scotland will turn its back on the subject as the Quebecois did, and the Nats will start suffering from the effects of long-term incumbency at Holyrood. And we haven't had the Salmond trial yet.
My recollection is that there was talk of a precondition of a second IndyRef being Yes polling in the region of 60% in order to demonstrate the "settled will". We don't seem to be quite there yet.
It was commentators that said it needed 60% not the Government, they are getting more popular after 12 years not less, they have NO opposition, it is nothing like Quebec where Canada gave them powers and money and kept their promises. There is no conundrum for Sturgeon , she will be out if she does not have a referendum.
Don't think you are right about Nicola, the party will stay ultra-loyal to her whatever. There is no plausible alternative leader, for one thing. And I still think she is torn about a referendum - the whole argument about being careful about what you wish for.
I also think you may be under-estimating "referendum fatigue" up here.
YES side have no fatigue and will be well up for it, it does not need many more to change and it is won. Given the shambles and treatment since last one and us out of Europe , that should not be difficult. Alastair is right about Sturgeon and if no referendum she is a goner for sure.
Anyone who knows anything about the criminal justice system knows that giving money to the police will achieve absolutely nothing. Unless you invest in all parts of it, it is simply pissing money away.
Anyone who knows anything about the criminal justice system knows that giving money to the police will achieve absolutely nothing. Unless you invest in all parts of it, it is simply pissing money away.
But they've given money to the visible bits (police and prisons). You mean there are other bits that also need money (say courts, lawyers and probation offices). But they aren't obvious.
YES side have no fatigue and will be well up for it, it does not need many more to change and it is won. Given the shambles and treatment since last one and us out of Europe , that should not be difficult. Alastair is right about Sturgeon and if no referendum she is a goner for sure.
Hi Malc,
I don't doubt the enthusiasm of The National readership et al, I do doubt the enthusiasm of the general populace for being put through it all again. Brexit has not been a great advertisement for Westminster rule, I grant you, but it is also a warning about what happens when you embark on major constitutional change.
Sturgeon is surely safe as houses. Who on earth would lead a charge against her?
All that said, I never really thought Boris was a particularly clear speaker, or got what people saw in him. Corbyn come across far more measured. He is more experienced I guess
I don't doubt the enthusiasm of The National readership et al, I do doubt the enthusiasm of the general populace for being put through it all again. Brexit has not been a great advertisement for Westminster rule, I grant you, but it is also a warning about what happens when you embark on major constitutional change.
Sturgeon is surely safe as houses. Who on earth would lead a charge against her?
I'm very hopeful of two-for-the-price-of-one in an early election.
Fingers crossed we can get a Tory majority and an SNP clean sweep of Scotland giving them an undisputed mandate.
Lets have independence voted for twice over. We can all be free and independent
Boris not very good in parliament. That should not be a surprise to anyone who has been following politics for the last ten years.
I think Labour's position is actually now quite strong. If they can engineer an election after Boris has been humiliated by parliament blowing up his brain-dead 'do-or-die' deadline, Corbyn will have the best of both worlds: he'll be able to tell potential voters that Labour saw off the risk of a catastrophic Tory no-deal crash out, and be able with a moderately straight face to promise to come to a better relationship with the EU (the details can be left vague). Meanwhile he'll benefit from Farage laying in to Boris in exactly the same way he laid into Theresa May, for missing the self-imposed deadline.
Oh, and welcome to the club, @Big_G_NorthWales. Many more to come, I'm sure. Perhaps we'll see the Conservative Party reborn under a new name - the One Nation Party, perhaps.
This is utterly poor by Johnson. "His friends are in Tehran and Caracas." Oh for goodness' sake, the Conservatives have been hammering that line since Corbyn was first elected. It doesn't cut through.
Big_G to resign his conservative membership today?
I published my resignation letter early this morning on this forum
Don’t take this the wrong way, but isn’t this kind of thing (publishing resignation letters, announcing you are no longer posting on the site, long bios on Twitter) awfully vain and self important? Why do it?
Comments
I talking about the INDEPENDENCE NOW group who make up a significant proportion of the party and who are deeply unimpressed by the SNPs response to Brexit vis-a-vie facilitating independence. There are definitely MP/MSP who would happily make themselves the public head of that group and take leadership fo the party.
But the over-riding fact is as outlined by Oliver Letwin yesterday. No Deal is worse for us than it is for the EU27.
I never thought I'd say this, but Corbyn looks accomplished and staesmanlike by comparison to Johnson.
If he reckons that the Brexit Party will be squeezed by Johnson then he will find a way to stand aside rather than be humiliated with a national vote share of ~2%.
- Parliament passes law forcing Johnson to ask for and then accept an extension;
- Johnson or AN Other PM duly asks the EU for an extension;
- The EU turn it down on the grounds that it isn't explicitly to allow for a GE to take place, thus breaking the deadlock?
Does the prospective law then say the PM must revoke? Can they even do that?
Fundamentally, the issue remains that MPs don't seem to understand that to remove the threat of No Deal properly, they have to replace it with something.
Step forward Sir Graham Brady (Old Lady).
We get a Tory majority then a backstopless agreement is very plausible. Opponents of it keep clinging to the ludicrous notion that "no deal is worse for us than them" rather than "they would rather no deal than an amended deal".
I agree no deal may be worse for us than them [though not if them is the Irish], but that is moot.
Boris Johnson = worst PM of all time - a lying disingenuous c*nt!
As always, the arrogance of the unworthy.
That's some achievement.
Why are they ‘mindless assertions’? And why are you putting something I never said in quotes?
However, I think Farage has opened the door to a conditional electoral pact with Johnson, and that Johnson is currently well on course for sticking to those preconditions. I don't see much evidence that he is likely to change his mind if it opens the door to a proper run at a few dozen inner city Labour seats.
https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/government-move-general-election-motion-7pm/
For all the shenanigans last night it seems to me that we still end up with a messy No Deal. What sort of government we end up with depends on when the GE is.
Those 21 Tory MPs who stood up for what they believed in deserve a great deal of kudos, especially those who know they are likely losing their jobs. It is a great pity they will not be in Parliament, doubtless being replaced by people either unable to think for themselves or prizing loyalty over integrity. Misplaced loyalty is not a virtue.
It is ironic that it is British democracy, so sneering of the EU and its approach to democracy and generally so admired around the world, which is being put under strain.
I rather feel that the biggest damage Brexit will do is not to our economy but to our way of doing politics - not our current structures but rather to a belief that political disputes and arguments need to be conducted in a way which understands that people have to live together afterwards, that a crushing your enemies mindset is fundamentally inimical to a democratic mindset.
I don’t have much hope that things will get better.
There has been talk of a Corbyn-SNP alliance in the event of a hung parliament granting a referendum but that will never pass the House because significant numbers of Labour MPs won't vote for it for the understandable reason that Brexit won't have happened (the cassus belli for IndyRef2) and some of them have a deep hatred of nationalism.
So we are still a good few years away.
Alastair is right about Sturgeon and if no referendum she is a goner for sure.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1169208593452863489
https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1169208831718678528
It's all a bit Big Yellow Taxi though.
YES side have no fatigue and will be well up for it, it does not need many more to change and it is won. Given the shambles and treatment since last one and us out of Europe , that should not be difficult.
Alastair is right about Sturgeon and if no referendum she is a goner for sure.
Hi Malc,
I don't doubt the enthusiasm of The National readership et al, I do doubt the enthusiasm of the general populace for being put through it all again. Brexit has not been a great advertisement for Westminster rule, I grant you, but it is also a warning about what happens when you embark on major constitutional change.
Sturgeon is surely safe as houses. Who on earth would lead a charge against her?
If he can't even beat Corbyn at PMQs ...
The PM is a laughing stock.
Sensible line is that I did not want an election but given the regrettable vote last night we now need one and I want to have it now.
https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/burgons-appalling-brexit-interview/
Ha ha ha
Fingers crossed we can get a Tory majority and an SNP clean sweep of Scotland giving them an undisputed mandate.
Lets have independence voted for twice over. We can all be free and independent
I think Labour's position is actually now quite strong. If they can engineer an election after Boris has been humiliated by parliament blowing up his brain-dead 'do-or-die' deadline, Corbyn will have the best of both worlds: he'll be able to tell potential voters that Labour saw off the risk of a catastrophic Tory no-deal crash out, and be able with a moderately straight face to promise to come to a better relationship with the EU (the details can be left vague). Meanwhile he'll benefit from Farage laying in to Boris in exactly the same way he laid into Theresa May, for missing the self-imposed deadline.
Oh, and welcome to the club, @Big_G_NorthWales. Many more to come, I'm sure. Perhaps we'll see the Conservative Party reborn under a new name - the One Nation Party, perhaps.
When my party throw out Ken Clarke and other long serving conservative mps why would I remain
It was a painful decision
The entertaining bit is how quickly Boris's dream is completely and utterly falling apart.