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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.

    I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.

    I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1169177120515481600
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    yep, agree with that. If Boris calls an unnecessary election when he could deliver Brexit then the BXP will savage his vote. Certainly looks a lot better to be forced into an election because the 'anti-democrats' in parliament have taken the rug from under him.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
    But what if it was because parliament, including Corbyn, had stopped him? It might work in his favour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited September 2019

    eristdoof said:

    Scott_P said:

    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720

    Hasn't he?

    It can say what it likes - the law will have no force if Boris wins a majority in that election.
    The law stays in force until it is repealed. There needs to be a Queens Speech first. There will not be much time.

    The law doesn't need to be repealed. If Boris whips a majority to reject the extension the law is fulfilled.
    Good point! There are other provisions in the Bill but I think most of them fall away if the Commons resolves to leave without a deal.
    Which has been clear all along.
    The sole intent behind the bill is to prevent the executive arranging no deal by default on Oct 31st.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    eek said:

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Hah! I can't see my MP Simon Hoare risking his cushy job in a safe as house seat.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    Boris is asking for a GE tonight at 7pm. He clearly isn't being forced into a general election if he is requesting one.

    And the even funnier bit is that he won't get it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
    lol, why doesnt Boles just defect to Labour if he wants Jezza to win ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
  • British Politics Is In Chaos. The System Is Working.
    The country’s unwritten constitution is being stretched to its limit, but is still in place—for now.


    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/09/britain-politics-chaotic-constitution-working/597340/
  • Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Agree though that it is bad news for the SNP that despite Brexit 51% of Scottish voters would still vote to stay in the UK

    For a separatist party 49% is fine, it is well within the margin of error and they only need to win one referendum whereas unionists need to win every referendum.

    Except that they only get one referendum a generation, and if they lose two the cause dies out, possibly forever. Cf Quebec.

    I don’t think there will be a vote in Scotland for 10 years or more. Brexit is too horrific an example of what happens if you try to enact dramatic constitutional change on a divided country, on the back of a plebiscite. Memories of it will need to fade before the Nats can or will try again
    I am exhausted trying to keep up with UK politics so dont particularly follow Scottish specific politics but from a mathematical angle 49% is not a problem for a separatist party, particularly when the direction of travel is in their favour.
    As alluded to previously Quebec is one of the several straws to which Unionists cling. Obviously the '2nd ref killed the Nats stone dead' schtick is comforting to the fearful, but I can't really see the comparison with regard to history, culture, politics or constitution to name but four.

    The idea that Scotland is going to recoil from indy because English politicians (with even their Scottish satraps looking on aghast) have made an almighty fuckup of Brexit is an interesting one. If nothing else it provides a useful template for what not to do.
    The Quebec example is more than a straw. Talk of a second IndyRef already elicits a huge groan among many. A third would be unconscionable. It will be do or die for the SNP.
    I guess the groaners would be the 44% of those who don't think there should be a referendum in the next 5 years as opposed to the 45% that do? It's odd that when Unionists are asked to facilitate this referendum that'll kill off indy for evvah, it's always no, no, no.

    Of course you know when Unionists are bleating about the wording of the question for this second referendum that's definitely, definitely not going to happen that the game's a bogey (or an IDS as it shall henceforth be known).
  • I wonder how widespread this view of Cummings is among Tory MPs. I always regarded Gale as a no fuss plodder, so for me this looks quite significant. But others will know a whole lot better.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1169177243307757568
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    Boris is asking for a GE tonight at 7pm. He won't get it.
    and that's perfect for him. He will eventually force through a GE next month but if Labour are seen to block it after all the months of calling for one it'll do them severe damage. Corbyn is somewhat boxed in here.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Scott_P said:

    It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.

    I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.

    I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1169177120515481600
    That JRM's responded shows it's hurt him. And so it should.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    I think the Tories will get a short term bounce as almost all Leavers are furious "the will of the people" has been denied. I reckon 40%/ 23% / 17%/ 14%/6% gives Johnson a 17% lead at start of campaign.

    I think in a 6 week campaign Con will stay in high 30s as they squeeze BXP 14% but lose moderates to all other parties. I think as campaign becomes about other issues and Lab Manifesto strikes a chord gap narrows as dramatically as in 2017 i reckon Lab 35% by end of campaign.

    End result NOC Boris goes Corbyn goes if he isnt PM soft BREXIT GE in 2020

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    eek said:

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Endillion said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    Z

    Danny565 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720

    Hasn't he?

    He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.

    Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
    Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.
    Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?

    If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?
    I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?
    Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?
    This was Corbyn, a whole two days ago:
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-backs-election-under-19165664

    But Mr Corbyn today reiterated his long-standing calls for an election - when asked if he would back one "under any circumstance, at any time".
    Once we are in an election campaign, the sentence "but Corbyn promised an election at *any* time" is hardly going to swing any votes.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
    But what if it was because parliament, including Corbyn, had stopped him? It might work in his favour.
    That's possible, although the Tories also claimed after the first extension that they'd been forced into it by Parliament, but it didn't stop their poll rating collapsing.

    The reasons from Labour's perspective to demand a long campaign aren't just because it would force Boris to get an extension, though. It also gives Jezza more time to campaign and more rallies, which (rightly or wrongly) he sees as the single factor that helped most in the 2017 election.
  • eek said:

    Nigelb said:
    The party isn't divided. The party is clear.

    Some couldn't abide by the party. They're not part of the party anymore.

    No division.
    No doubt some new division will open up separating the even more pure from the less than pure and another purge will be necessary....
    As Nick Palmer pointed out earlier once you start purging it's almost impossible not to keep on purging.
    I purged myself. As did David, TSE et al
  • eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    If Mr Johnson wins 330 seats like Mrs May did, he will need to bribe the DUP once again. They will exact a high price for helping to revoke the Benn Law and allowing a no-deal Brexit in NI.

    The DUP will never allow a no deal Brexit - they know as well as anyone it's a short cut to a united Ireland. They will always find reasons for blocking it. The DUP is a sectarian-based party dedicated to preserving the union and that aim will always trump Brexit for them.
    That's what I would expect, but they did vote with the government yesterday.
    Of course, it was obvious that the government would lose so the DUP could keep their hands clean knowing that the Tory rebels were doing the dirty work.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??

    Give your heads a shake.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.

    He doesn't need a pact.

    He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.

    Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
  • Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
    That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Brom said:

    eek said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    Boris is asking for a GE tonight at 7pm. He won't get it.
    and that's perfect for him. He will eventually force through a GE next month but if Labour are seen to block it after all the months of calling for one it'll do them severe damage. Corbyn is somewhat boxed in here.
    It sounds a bit limp during an election campaign, an election which Corbyn voted for, to say, "but Corbyn voted against an election".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    GIN1138 said:

    Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.

    He doesn't need a pact.

    He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.

    Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
    He’s not going to go for no deal man.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Danny565 said:

    Endillion said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    Z

    Danny565 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1169160161757470720

    Hasn't he?

    He’ll accept. If he wins a majority he repeals. If he loses then it makes no difference.

    Allows him to make the call to BXP voters very clear.
    Like I said earlier, why not amend today's Bill with a provision for a GE on 14th or 15th October? That answers Labour's alleged concerns, both about the date and the risk that Queen's Consent or Royal Assent is somehow withheld.
    Why should Boris get to choose an election date that's most advantageous to him?

    If Labour were to propose an election date of, say, 5 December, would the Tories support that? Or would they be "frit"?
    I asked the question last night, how many times has Jezza called for a General Election since the last one?
    Many times. And he called for one again last night. Why does that mean he should just let Boris select the date?
    This was Corbyn, a whole two days ago:
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-backs-election-under-19165664

    But Mr Corbyn today reiterated his long-standing calls for an election - when asked if he would back one "under any circumstance, at any time".
    I mean, are we really going to play that game after all the statements Boris has gone back on already?

    Corbyn can easily reverse-ferret if he wants to. He can dress up the reason for demanding a long election campaign with ostensibly principled reasons. Like "this is the most important election in a generation, the public need a long campaign to get all the information". Or "there'll be too much uncertainty for business to hold an election just a couple of weeks before a potential No Deal Brexit, we need to get the extension first so that businesses have more time to prepare".
    Yeah, we are going to play that game. Because if Corbyn is just as dishonest as Johnson, and just as ready to say things he doesn't mean for the sake for political advancement, then what on earth is the point in voting for him?
  • First post from a 10 year lurker on this site (what happened to SeanT by the way?). Anyway, although yesterday was very messy, I think broadly the Cummings strategy is still mostly on track. i.e. get to an election framed as 'you the people' vs blockers/Socialist headbangers (his 'words' not mine)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??

    Give your heads a shake.

    Not committed Lab and Lib-Dem but most voters are floaters... And they'll take a dim view.

    Wait for Saturday night's polls. ;)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.
    A slogan like "Parliament vs the People" can easily backfire if a good counter slogan is found. Just think of how effective the "Weak and Wobbly" slogan was.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us

    We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May

    Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?

    It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed

    Government by technocrat

    Just what the EU likes

    No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
  • Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??

    Give your heads a shake.

    Indeed. It's worth remembering the last election took place on 9th June 2017, having been called on 18th April. The only reason to hold one before 31st October is because it suits Johnson. Now he has lost control of the Commons, why shouldn't MPs pick a date that best suits them? The longer the campaign, the more his lies and the true implicaitons of No Deak can be exposed.

    That said, I can still see Corbyn - who is not smart - listening to the Morning Star Brexiteers and giving Johnson his mid-October poll.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,562
    I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?

    Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??

    Give your heads a shake.

    Do remainers really think voters will be impressed by Corbyn dodging an election after banging on about having one every day? If he's trying to look more honest than Boris it isn't working.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited September 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.

    He doesn't need a pact.

    He's purged the last of the EU-Phile grandees. There's nothing to stop him going all out for no deal and framing it that Parliament has forced him into it by refusing to let him keep no deal on the table to get a deal.

    Farage has already said if Boris purges the EU-Philes and goes for no deal he'll stand down the Brexit Party and endorse Boris.
    And if Boris fights an election on "vote for me and get no deal" he will be slaughtered in the South. This latest Scotland poll is only the start of it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited September 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    The Labour line can’t hold for long ..

    It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.

    And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
  • Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Scott_P said:
    They are faced with an unenviable choice between no deal and (possibly) Corbyn.

    In those circumstances, the only sane vote might be Lib Dem.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    Alistair said:

    My rough guess on those numbers,
    Labour loses all seats bar Edinburgh South
    Lib Dems pick up Fife NE (obviously)
    Cons lose their 3 Lib Dem mass switch seats from 2017 plus at least 5 more?
    Swing is LD to SNP on those numbers, Fife stays SNP on uns
    Cons hold Berwickshire, Dunfriesshire and Aberdeenshire West
    Lab back to unicycle territory
    UNS is going to be super rubbish in Scotland. You have the twin Axes of Brexit and Sindy.

    In Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine the Con win was based on the LibDem vote going from 11,812 in 2015 to 4,461 in 2017 and the Lab Vote going from 2,487 to 5,706.

    The SNP-to-Lab switchers are going to switch back as are Lib Dem to Con Switchers. It will be far closer than UNS suggests.

    In Fife NE there are over fourteen thousand Con and Lab voters for the Lib Dems to squeeze, ten thousand of them Con voters.

    Fife NE is a 100% Lib Dem gain.

    Good post.
    To be fair to Electoral Calculus they do have Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine within 2% between Cons and SNP. Would deffo be backing SNP at better than evens there.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    GIN1138 said:

    Do Brexiteers really think Lib Dem or Labour voters will say: “I was going to vote for LibDem/Labour but now because I think they’re scared of an election I’m going to vote for Boris”??

    Give your heads a shake.

    Not committed Lab and Lib-Dem but most voters are floaters... And they'll take a dim view.

    Wait for Saturday night's polls. ;)
    Floating voters this week will still be floating voters at the start of the election campaign, when the "scared of an election" slogan will be laughable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    tpfkar said:

    I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?

    Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.

    Wouldn't that have led to accusations that the Queen was trying to help Boris? I mean, he clearly wants an election, so he'd have no problem in not becoming PM before an election.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Paul Masterton has been uniting Scottish political Twitter in a way rarely seen outside of someone criticising Irn-Bru.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    Private polls looking gloomy?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I wonder if by tomorrow we'll have a Ken Clarke government?

    A crazy thought, but hardly any crazier than any other scenario.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    They are faced with an unenviable choice between no deal and (possibly) Corbyn.

    In those circumstances, the only sane vote might be Lib Dem.
    This depends on if the election is run on a "Back Boris for no-deal" policy or not.
    If it is which seems likely, then Remain voting Conservative voters should not have much of a problem with voting LD.

    A much bigger problem is for the Brexit-but-not-no-deal-brexit conservatives. They will really have a hard time if they want their opinion heard.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Those diehard Remainers should just f*ck off to the Lib Dems right @HYUFD ?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    They are faced with an unenviable choice between no deal and (possibly) Corbyn.

    In those circumstances, the only sane vote might be Lib Dem.
    Or in Labour leave seats where the Conservative are the other choice Labour.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
    It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.

    And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.

    That set of events is very unlikely but wishful thinking.
  • Charles said:

    We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us

    We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May

    Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?

    It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed

    Government by technocrat

    Just what the EU likes

    No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
    Did your (presumably) expensive education teach you to read Charles? Putting it back to the voters to get their instruction on precise offerings rather than vague, undefined waffle is exactly what I am advocating.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Charles said:

    We now have a good idea about what No Deal is - the govt has prepared the Yellowhammer dossier for us

    We now know what a Deal looks like thanks to Mrs May

    Surely the way forward now is Revoke A50 and set up a Royal Commission to examine the impacts from the now known positions and then make a recommendation to the country followed by a binary referendum with a 66.7% threshold?

    It means that voters would known precisely what the impact will be and no unicorns will be allowed

    Government by technocrat

    Just what the EU likes

    No need to pay attention to pesky voters with their own opinions
    Also arbitrary limits set to ensure the governing side get what they want from the result are indefensible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
    But what if it was because parliament, including Corbyn, had stopped him? It might work in his favour.
    Do or Die is pretty emphatic. Not much wiggle room. No room for dogs eating his order paper.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    Is there any way of seeing the trend graph? E.g. Has it recently been pushed artificially low by those betting in hope?
  • Scott_P said:

    It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.

    I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.

    I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1169177120515481600
    Negates 100% of the sympathy he was getting on here last night (much of it from opponents).
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.
    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
    It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.

    And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.

    I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:


    Unlike 2017 this election will most definitely be a Brexit election.
    It won't.

    It's a General Election and many many topics of interest and concern will come to the fore. Most people are in fact sick of Brexit and fall into two camps. Get the blinking thing done or kick it into touch. Whatever, don't discuss it any more.

    NHS, schools, transport, climate, poverty, crime ... these are some of the issues of far more interest and concern to the vast majority of people in this country.

    Brexit is boring. Okay, it isn't to me because I'm a political nerd. But I promise you that Brexit is boring for most people. They never were much interested in Europe, and they won't be in the future. This was and always has been an obsession of people like HYUFD. Not the country.
    Boris will look in the camera and say "Give me your vote, give me a working majority - and I will deliver Brexit before you have your Christmas pud. You can have given up worrying about whether we will ever implement Brexit by the time you sing Auld Lang Syne. Then Westminster can get back to addrssing all the other important stuff you need us to do as your government."

    And the nation will say "Gawd bless yer guv...."
    Number theorists will recognise that in this event Boris will have fulfilled his original promise, because OCT31=DEC25.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
    lol, why doesnt Boles just defect to Labour if he wants Jezza to win ?
    He feels like all of us, Alan - he wants them all to lose.
  • Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
    That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
    In fairness to him, he did as always take the time to set out his reasons in detail.

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1168960672786472961

    As have others in the cowardy-custard camp:

    https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1169139643738144768
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
    That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
    In fairness to him, he did as always take the time to set out his reasons in detail.

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1168960672786472961

    As have others in the cowardy-custard camp:

    https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1169139643738144768
    All that shows is Masterton can't identify a known liar lying to him.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Scott_P said:
    we tax them heavily and restore free university places.
  • Looking at this (too) simplistic, it seems from the outside that the Union / Independence dividing line is a more powerful driving factor than whether you are pro or anti-Brexit. That makes me think SCons might do better than those numbers suggest as pro-Union voters hold their noses to keep the SNP out and repeat 2017's tactical voting. It's easy to forget but TM's 2017 campaign wasn't exactly pushing an anti-Brexit line and the SCons benefiting from tactical voting then.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    tpfkar said:

    I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?

    Her one role in the process is to appoint on the basis of who commands a majority of the house - and it's clear that Johnson comes nowhere near, whatever the politicking around moving formal No Confidence motions. I just wonder if she'd insisted on a formal confidence motion first, some of last night's rebels might have used that leverage to get concessions out of him to avoid this, e.g. formally ruling out prorogation.

    The Queen has a protocoll that she follows to avoid the contitutional crisis that happened in Australia in the seventies.

    She has followed this protocoll. Ms May recommended that Mr Johnson become the next prime minister. As long as this suggestion was not absurd (which it was not) then the Queen just does her duty.
  • Rees-Mogg's 'arrogant' speech cost government four extra votes, says Tory rebel

    Turning back to Jacob Rees-Mogg, it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said:
    There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases.
    Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench. (See 6.37am.) Last night the government was, quite literally, flat on its back. But the picture has distracted attention from his speech which, even by Rees-Mogg’s standards, was unusually pompous, as well as peevish and at times offensive


    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/04/brexit-crisis-boris-johnson-mps-bill-blocking-no-deal-eu-no-deal-parliament-politics-live?__twitter_impression=true
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited September 2019
    tpfkar said:

    I wonder if Her Majesty is having second thoughts about having appointed Johnson as PM this morning?

    HMQ would have appointed Boris on Theresa May's recommedation?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    ab195 said:

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    Is there any way of seeing the trend graph? E.g. Has it recently been pushed artificially low by those betting in hope?
    Lots of graphs here https://betdata.io/

    The Tories have drifted slightly.
  • Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.

    What makes you believe it hasn’t been done already?

  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:



    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.

    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
    It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.

    And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
    I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
    So it's Thursday next week. It really doesn't matter once Parliament is prorogued until October Corbyn can start talking about an election again

    By October most people will have forgotten all about this week and if they haven't the thing they will remember is Parliament refused an election as they didn't trust Boris.

    And this election may well boil down to do you trust Boris - Yes or No?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Scott_P said:

    It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.

    I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.

    I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1169177120515481600
    Negates 100% of the sympathy he was getting on here last night (much of it from opponents).
    'How dare you question my entitlement by making excuses for my behaviour ?'
  • ab195 said:

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    Is there any way of seeing the trend graph? E.g. Has it recently been pushed artificially low by those betting in hope?
    I expect the Scots only poll may have a bearing but to be honest my own instinct does not see a Boris majority
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    Middleman said:

    First post from a 10 year lurker on this site (what happened to SeanT by the way?).

    He never left..... oh wait.

  • Middleman said:

    First post from a 10 year lurker on this site (what happened to SeanT by the way?). Anyway, although yesterday was very messy, I think broadly the Cummings strategy is still mostly on track. i.e. get to an election framed as 'you the people' vs blockers/Socialist headbangers (his 'words' not mine)

    Welcome to the site, I think you are right. What will be interesting is whether the strategy will then be to leave asap after an election or to make use of whatever extension is requested.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Looking at Twitter, Brexit Party supporters are going to be very disappointed when Boris doesn’t pick up the phone to Farage to organise an electoral pact.

    What makes you believe it hasn’t been done already?

    You really think the Tories will stand aside in vast swathes of Northern seats?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Anyone else wondering why there were six signatories to Hammond's 'No to No Deal' letter who didn't rebel yesterday?

    IIUIC they were:

    * Alberto Costa
    * Simon Hoare
    * David Lidington
    * Paul Masterton
    * Caroline Spelman
    * Tom Tugendhat

    What a bunch of hypocrites!

    Enough rebelled yesterday to win. The rest can rebel on another day.
    Masterton is likely to lose his seat in a GE. Rest are in safe seats.
    That's what's slightly odd, if Masterton had shown a bit of spine it might have given him a ghost of a chance of keeping his seat (admittedly extremely ghostly).
    In fairness to him, he did as always take the time to set out his reasons in detail.

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1168960672786472961

    As have others in the cowardy-custard camp:

    https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1169139643738144768
    Worrying when you see the swarms of FBPE nutcases bullying Djangoly for what appears to be a very rational position. Twitter is absolute poison.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    ab195 said:

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    Is there any way of seeing the trend graph? E.g. Has it recently been pushed artificially low by those betting in hope?
    This weekends polls will be very positive for Johnson it will shorten.
  • Scott_P said:
    Same as the MPs who voted Remain. They decide if they can live with a policy of leaving 31 Oct do or die, or not.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    yes the magic date for Lab would be October 31st. Before then Boris walks it. After that then not to say he wouldn't win but he would have a hell of a monkey on his back, having broken his do or die promise. It would be used relentlessly, by Jezza and Nige for the whole campaign.
    lol, why doesnt Boles just defect to Labour if he wants Jezza to win ?
    He feels like all of us, Alan - he wants them all to lose.
    Im afraid Mr T thats not going to happen, there will always be 650 on the numpties playing silly games.

    Fortunately for Mps their standing is so low in the eyes of the public there isnt much further for them to drop. Currently they sit between journalists and advertising execs,

    The problem remains they cant see it for want of playing dopey bugger games.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    I'm not sure Rees Mogg slouching in the commons will play too well in the Brexit heartlands the Tories need to win off Labour. Anti-tory mindset can run very very deep.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    Was it? I regret what happened yesterday and the probable loss of many dedicated Conservative MPs (and, indeed, @Big_G_NorthWales 's resignation this morning) but Tom McTague has a point here:
    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1168793646071726081

    Parties have positions and not all their MPs believe in them, that's normal. The Tories still have *lots* of MPs who don't believe in No Deal but didn't vote with the opposition on that particular motion.
    Sure, that's normal most of the time. But "being prepared to tolerate No Deal, if no deal can be found" is plainly going to be the party's fundamental policy at the imminent GE and if MPs cannot - in good conscience - support that, then they should probably not be candidates for the party.
    But TP, the Governemt is not trying to find a Deal. We know that. The cat is out of the bag.
    At the EU is saying no to any proposal

    There’s no point in throwing resources at it until they are willing to negotiate
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Always suspected the Lords could and would filibuster. Another twist.

    https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/

    Well that's the Lords finally going to be reformed come the next non-Tory government
    Everyone threatens electoral reform until they get in to power. Then they find they like the system that got them there.
    That's why I suspect we will get Lords reform - it's less painful than changing our FPTP system..
    This talk of Lords Filibuster is surely overdone. If they thwart the Government in this way, the institution is finished. Even fairly wishy washy opponents like me would want it abolished.

    They must know that.
    Of course, they will not be thwarting "the Government". They will be thwarting a group of procedural manipulators trying to undermine a majority decision in a referendum recognised as binding by the main political parties in Parliament.

    I'd say all bets are off.
    I’d go further than that

    The Tories and the Lords are lining up on their long term position of standing up for ordinary people against the London-based sectarian interests.

    (It’s the same split as the English Civil War, FWIW, with London/Parliament pursuing its own interests regardless of what everyone else wanted or thought)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kamski said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the feeling that the Tory party will wake up at some point realising what the hell it has done to itself. The only question is will it be too late to do anything about it.

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1169144620258910208
    Because if he votes against the party on a matter of confidence then he has chosen his path.
    if it was in any sense a "matter of confidence" then the Prime Minister would immediately resign having lost the vote.
    Important to distinguish between party and government

    Boris said. I am leader of the party. This is my policy. If you don’t agree then there’s the door

    He won a clear majority of Tory MPs.

    Those that don’t support the leadership on this fundamental policy can exit stage left
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Oddly, Conservative majority has drifted out quite sharply this morning. It was last matched at 2.98.

    Private polls looking gloomy?
    Punters having seen Johnson last night thinking he is going to trash it come the election and the realization if the opposition plays it right the election is after 31/10
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Surely Labour should only accept a general election once no deal cannot happen on 31 st October .

    That would mean Bozo has broken his promise and keeps the Brexit Party taking votes from the Tories .

    An election before then could still deliver a no deal if the Tories get a majority .

    The one thing that has changed though is the removal of the whip from the rebels . If you’ve got nothing left to lose then more of those rebels might back a VONC .
  • I wonder how widespread this view of Cummings is among Tory MPs. I always regarded Gale as a no fuss plodder, so for me this looks quite significant. But others will know a whole lot better.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1169177243307757568

    "The 1922 Committee is going to have to do something about it"

    Wow. When is their next meeting? I wonder if Cummings Wargamed his expulsion?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Yep. After October 31st Boris has broken his pledge. Again. But this time it will have consequences.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:

    It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.

    I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.

    I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1169177120515481600
    Inverse snobberry. So distasteful
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nico67 said:

    Surely Labour should only accept a general election once no deal cannot happen on 31 st October .

    That would mean Bozo has broken his promise and keeps the Brexit Party taking votes from the Tories .

    An election before then could still deliver a no deal if the Tories get a majority .

    The one thing that has changed though is the removal of the whip from the rebels . If you’ve got nothing left to lose then more of those rebels might back a VONC .

    I don't think it's possible to block no deal on October 31st, it is however possible to call a general election before then
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    "BoZo is a liar" is going to make a great campaign slogan...

    That probably only appeals to the base
  • IF I was Cummings and IF I had war-gamed this then the masterstroke would be a deal with Farage, bringing him into the foldgiving him a safe seat and a role in government, and going full on no-deal.

    thats still possible.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited September 2019
    From the Graun, more important than the lounging, JRM cost the gov 4 votes:

    Rees-Mogg's 'arrogant' speech cost government four extra votes, says Tory rebel.
    [...] it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said:

    "There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases."

    Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Warner out ct behind leaving the ball twice this series.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    edited September 2019

    Looking at this (too) simplistic, it seems from the outside that the Union / Independence dividing line is a more powerful driving factor than whether you are pro or anti-Brexit. That makes me think SCons might do better than those numbers suggest as pro-Union voters hold their noses to keep the SNP out and repeat 2017's tactical voting. It's easy to forget but TM's 2017 campaign wasn't exactly pushing an anti-Brexit line and the SCons benefiting from tactical voting then.

    I think there's something in this. Who do the 50-55% of Pro Union voters vote for? Corbyn's made it fairly clear he'd give up the union in exchange for power, which will turn off a good chunk of them once they think about it during an election. What's the Venn diagram overlap between Scottish Leaver (edit: 38%!!) and Unionist (50-55%)? I can personally see the Tories defying the odds in Scotland.
  • 1 for 1
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    eek said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:



    This is silly. Boris knows the British people don't want an election. And calling one would look very bad, for him. However, if he is FORCED into one, well then what can he do about that?

    That's what Boris wants - to be forced into a GE - and it looks like he will get it.

    As I said last night Parliament has written the Parliament Vs the People script for him.

    What I didn't forsee was Cowardly Corbyn heading for the hills rather than dare face the electorate... I thought he'd be úp for it like in 2017.

    But Labour blocking the election they have been demanding every day for three years is even better for Boris in the long run.
    The Labour line can’t hold for long ..
    It doesn't need to. On Tuesday of next week once Parliament has been prorogued Corbyn can return to asking for an election once No Deal on October 31st has been removed.

    And Corbyn can then spend all month asking for an election as Boris can't enable one until he loses the new Parliament's Queen's speech vote on October 21st / 22nd.
    I thought the Prorouge date was between Monday and Thursday, the choice being Mr Johnson's
    So it's Thursday next week. It really doesn't matter once Parliament is prorogued until October Corbyn can start talking about an election again

    By October most people will have forgotten all about this week and if they haven't the thing they will remember is Parliament refused an election as they didn't trust Boris.

    And this election may well boil down to do you trust Boris - Yes or No?
    Youre expecting Boris and Brexit to drop out of the news for a few weeks ?
  • Scott_P said:
    I don't think that will work, its too clever by half.

    The public aren't fools, if Parliament forces an extension with Boris voting against [and expelling any Tories who vote in favour] then it will be the opposition who broke Boris's pledge not Boris.

    Boris will spend the next couple of months shouting from the rooftops this is why he needs a majority. And he'd be right.

    The Conservative Conference would be an election rally.

    I'd expect the Tories to be at least 40% by November if this happens.
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