I'm not suggesting Johnson would necessarily do it, BUT... surely there's nothing in theory to stop him from using the UK veto on any European Council decision requiring unanimity?
The UK is a full member of the EU until it leaves, hence the fact that we still have MEPs (and were legally required to send them,) and continue to contribute financially to the EU budget and to implement new EU legislation. That being the case, I've assumed from the outset that the UK Government recuses itself voluntarily from European Council discussions on Brexit - and could not be legally prevented from casting its vote if it were determined to do so. Or is there something I'm missing here?
My well considered response is tbat you are as bad as the racists, tarring people not bevause of their views and actions but because of their associations. I presume you consider all 17 million who voted for Brexit to be racists. That is why you are part of the problem not the solution.
You are entitled to your opinion, however (ahem) interesting that opinion might be. I can't see how I've said anything that logically leads to your comments, and your offensive comments seem based on utter defensiveness - i.e. from a poor position.
But sheer offensiveness seems to be all you can offer nowadays, sadly.
As for calling me 'as bad as the racists': you might want to look at whose side you are on, and the moral metal of your fellow travellers.
There you go again. So all 17 million who voted to Leave sre racists in your eyes. You really are an arrogant prick.
And sometimes you come across as the Arthur Shelby of PB.
Now don’t go smashing any chairs up as you read this. But Some want to prevent Brexit because honestly believe the 2016 direct democracy simple-minded question was afront to British Democracy. What did Ruth say in a parting shot, this mess came about because asking the nation that question was cop out, an abdication of true leadership?
After the great surrenders of sovereignty to EU in 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major I don’t recall much clamour for a referendum. There is an argument these sort of issues are best sorted by adding a direction of travel to a manifesto in a GE, where if the destination is ill thought out or unpopular it will be exposed, and use parliament to fine tune change, ratify final negotiation.
And I’m not wrong about that, just as if I fail to convince you its all democracy, but some methods just damn stronger ways of doing things, you wont be wrong either to disagree. And the fact we wont agree isn’t wrong either, it’s why we have democracy.
Bottom line is the political crisis here, People doing and saying things in the name of democracy that is in fact for politics not democracy, for personal ambition not for country or even party, and choosing not to recognise that and modify their behaviour like good democrats need to whatever the democratic mechanism, that’s why its all got silly.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
That is the issue. Both Labour and Tory will lose votes when compared to the last election it just depends on who to, where and how many
I'm not suggesting Johnson would necessarily do it, BUT... surely there's nothing in theory to stop him from using the UK veto on any European Council decision requiring unanimity?
The UK is a full member of the EU until it leaves, hence the fact that we still have MEPs (and were legally required to send them,) and continue to contribute financially to the EU budget and to implement new EU legislation. That being the case, I've assumed from the outset that the UK Government recuses itself voluntarily from European Council discussions on Brexit - and could not be legally prevented from casting its vote if it were determined to do so. Or is there something I'm missing here?
I'm not suggesting Johnson would necessarily do it, BUT... surely there's nothing in theory to stop him from using the UK veto on any European Council decision requiring unanimity?
The UK is a full member of the EU until it leaves, hence the fact that we still have MEPs (and were legally required to send them,) and continue to contribute financially to the EU budget and to implement new EU legislation. That being the case, I've assumed from the outset that the UK Government recuses itself voluntarily from European Council discussions on Brexit - and could not be legally prevented from casting its vote if it were determined to do so. Or is there something I'm missing here?
Someone else reproduced the text above. We’re specifically excluded on Brexit. We could of course ask eg. Hungary to do it for us and make it worth their while.... Boris could also threaten to veto all sorts of other stuff. Would all be disgraceful though, speaking even as someone who wants to leave and will accept no deal.
Ah I see, I get you all. But couldn't we just sort of de facto leave the EU, say "No more money from us, and we're not following any directives and laws from the EU parliament"?
Plus the EU would I guess realistically only give us at most a six month extension, so it's not really a problem (although I get that the Tories would still try and use this for election purposes)
"3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force ofthe withdrawal agreement or, failing that,two years after the notification referred to inparagraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Councilor in decisions concerning it."
We get to represent ourselves, not both sides. The European Council explicitly excludes us.
The words "in agreement with the Member state concerned" clearly seem to require our acceptance.I think para 4 is about the deliberation process only. The discretion of the PM not to agree is meant to be taken away by the Hammond drafting.
I'm not suggesting Johnson would necessarily do it, BUT... surely there's nothing in theory to stop him from using the UK veto on any European Council decision requiring unanimity?
The UK is a full member of the EU until it leaves, hence the fact that we still have MEPs (and were legally required to send them,) and continue to contribute financially to the EU budget and to implement new EU legislation. That being the case, I've assumed from the outset that the UK Government recuses itself voluntarily from European Council discussions on Brexit - and could not be legally prevented from casting its vote if it were determined to do so. Or is there something I'm missing here?
Yes, you're missing the wording of Article 50, which has already been quoted, saying "member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it."
Remember Theresa May having to cool her heels while the rest of them had dinner together? That was why.
Crush the...well, look, maybe we can just talk it out with the saboteurs, and if not I guess, if we have to, we'll think about a little crushing. Possibly.
FTPA lays down the exact words of the motion which must be passed, so it can't be validly amended. (FTPA 2 (2) ).
In all cases the PM recommends (fixes) the date of the GE which HM appoints. (FTPA 2(7) ).
I think it can be amended, but then becomes inoperative in terms of triggering the election under the act. Which might actually be quite clever tactics.
Btw I made it to the US and denied myself internet for the whole week. Did I miss much?
The only political fact I established is that there are very few Trump supporters on the QM2 (John Sopel took a show of hands in one of his talks). Indeed there were Americans on the ship returning from house hunting in France in case he gets re-elected.
Jon Sopel's book "If Only They Didn't Speak English" is excellent.
I heard his talks and also met him for a few brief chats, as he had his dog in the kennels. His talks were entertaining but he seemed more of an entertainer/presenter than thinker to me, and I was hoping for a little more analysis and insight (tbf it’s possible he didn’t want to or isn’t allowed to give his opinions given his job).
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
We’ll watch, and clearly see that Europe offers an extension, and Parliament has to approve it. Are you pissed again?
Then we’re in agreement. Let this sensible offer from Remainers, to hand over the most vital British executive power to Brussels, be the very centerpiece of the election. Let it be discussed day after day after day. Let everyone enjoy the cleverness of Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin.
Then let us vote on it.
The short answer would be ‘yes’ - you are pissed.
The ultimate decision is with parliament. The EU chose the date on this current extension (it was originally hoped to be 1 January, until Macron foreshortened it, as I recall).
We are obviously having an election. Today's statement was just the cover for well i dont want to, but i have been forced to...rather than the may one which was painted as she just fancied a massive majority.
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
Remember. Boris is going to get us a good deal. Nothing to worry about.
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
Remainer MPs backing an election are surely "risking no deal".
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
Remainer MPs backing an election are surely "risking no deal".
Yes they are. But they are not, despite their whinging, willing to do anything to avoid no deal.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
In which case he will no longer be constituency chair and many members will no longer be members. They must make their choice as must Stewart and live with it.
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
The next paragraph is irrelevant. They are taking momentous power from the British executive, and simply handing it to Brussels
What if Brussels decides we should have two years? Three? Five? Eighty? We won’t have a say. We will have to accept whatever they deem appropriate, as the alternative will likely be no deal, and we know parliament does not want THAT.
It is treachery. It is asking Britain’s neighbors to come round and shag the wife, “but please keep the noise down”
Parliament gets a say. They have taken back control.
They don’t get a say. They just get to nod and agree to whatever our Brussels overlords decide we deserve. An incredible, mind boggling own goal from Remainers. Watch what the Tories do with this.
Remainers have massively overplayed their hand.
Cummins' war-gaming won't have included them doing something this dumb.
You people crack me up.
Only yesterday you were telling us that the Remainers were so stupid Johnson could outwit them just by not asking in the right way, or by adding some conditions, or by some other stratagem a child could foresee.
Now you realise they've thought out all the possibilities and insured against them, the yelping is deafening!
But in the zeal to ensure that there was absolutely no wiggle room for executive non-compliance, they may have made it far harder for MPs to vote for their bill, or more accurately, much easier to find a reason not to vote for it.
Imagine if they tried this here, with either flag!
Schools in France are now required to display the French and EU flags in classrooms alongside the words to the national anthem...It was initially suggested as an amendment by Éric Ciotti, an MP from the centre-right opposition party Les Républicains.
After much debate, the government agreed to the amendment, but insisted the EU flag must displayed too.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
The Brexit Party are polling no higher than UKIP were in 2015 when the Tories won a majority, the LDs are polling as high as 2005 and 2010 when Labour lost dozens of seats to the Tories
This desperate - utterly desperate - desire to be loved was really obvious the one time I met Johnson. He has charisma, but you could tell that he totally needed the attention of the room. I guess a lot of politicians are like this. But I've met 5 former or future PMs as well as other former Cabinet ministers and other senior politicians and none of them were like this. I feel absolutely certain that things will end very badly for him. And for us as long as he is in power.
Imagine if they tried this here, with either flag!
Schools in France are now required to display the French and EU flags in classrooms alongside the words to the national anthem...It was initially suggested as an amendment by Éric Ciotti, an MP from the centre-right opposition party Les Républicains.
After much debate, the government agreed to the amendment, but insisted the EU flag must displayed too.
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
Very difficult without access to the canvassing data as you well know.
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
He might just have ended the point of parliament.
A fan of Putin such as yourself might approve. Democrats would not.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
Very difficult without access to the canvassing data as you well know.
Not about winning, necessarily, but in wrecking the plans of those who forced you out. Not an easy task even so, but easier.
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
Remember. Boris is going to get us a good deal. Nothing to worry about.
There isn't nothing to worry about. But if he manages to do this, he will get that deal.
If Boris wins this. He's ended any chance of Parliament standing in the way of no deal. He's also deleted the most awkward and rebellious of his backbenchers.
Remember. Boris is going to get us a good deal. Nothing to worry about.
There isn't nothing to worry about. But if he manages to do this, he will get that deal.
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
It won’t happen on the day because you misunderstand what leave is to british business and British politics. The bit you (and so many others in this chat room) are missing here is how being pro EU helped the Party of business (The Conservatives) big time in elections over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or Brown because new labour were the party of business and EU, not interested in bringing back socialism. And you, like HY, counting all leave voters for Boris and Farage in a GE?
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
On the current swing predicted by YouGov seats like Wrexham, Stoke on Trent North, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Blackpool South, Great Grimsby, Darlington, Weaver Vale, Cardiff North, Bolton NE, Scunthorpe and possibly Enfield Southgate would go from red to blue too
Most of those seats were won by Thatcher, Major or Cameron at least once, they are true marginal seats, mainly Leave voting, not safe Labour seats
And if I say I think the polling is as unbelievable as those giving May 20+ leads, bunged up with new leader bounce and labours mess at the Euro’s yet to unwind? As soon as the snap election is called, Boris, his government, Cummings grid of daily unbelievable giveaways all gets elbowed aside as all the opposition parties get their oxygen of publicity and heardtoo, remain parties relentlessly hammering threat to households and the economy of No Deal Brexit. By the end of the campaign thing households will dread above all else is Boris No Deal, they no longer see Corbyn on the ballot, just returning their nice moderate Labour MP. Meanwhile, will Boris be reporting progress in negotiation to win votes? Farage would be insisting Clean Break brexit is the only true brexit, so what is Johnson’s negotiation all about if not a con trick and sell out, so to what impact will votes for Farage have in what you call marginals (though many haven’t been marginal for a while!).
Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?
Really?
My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.
It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal
Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats
Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote
Caveat - IMHO
I don’t wish to be rough with you BG, but you can’t keep making sweeping statements like “Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats”. I know it’s below the belt to say this, but that’s like no better than HY. Citation is needed that convinces us of that sweeping statement. Name them. At least Name the constituency’s going red to blue. Name the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party.
It won’t happen on the day because you misunderstand what leave is to british business and British politics. The bit you (and so many others in this chat room) are missing here is how being pro EU helped the Party of business (The Conservatives) big time in elections over the last 40 years. The Tories won’t have that on their side in this snap election.
At the same time, In the eyes of many leave voters Socialism is the big winner from Brexit, because EU membership squattened it. Labour leave areas had people coming out the woodwork to vote leave because they are Hard bitten lefties. Many of these voters didn’t vote for Blair or Brown because new labour were the party of business and EU, not interested in bringing back socialism. And you, like HY, counting all leave voters for Boris and Farage in a GE?
How much of an over estimation is that? I don’t have a huge group of mates, but I must have about half a dozen die hard leave long before 2016 actually who are always Labour in GE, as they were last time.
Can we Name the constituency’s going red to blue. the Labour MPs losing to Boris’s right wing Tory Party?
In Scotland which has been part of me for over 60 years and I know Scots politics labour are facing virtual extinction
It is commonly accepted labour will pay dearly in leave seats and of course the lib dems will damage both parties with their clear message of remain
You may not like it but I doubt any on here would compare me with HYUFD and I try to express my opinion fairly. Of course you can disagree with it
Okay I take the comparison back. HY is a class apart.
But he did reply with a very specific answer to my question.
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
Very difficult without access to the canvassing data as you well know.
Not about winning, necessarily, but in wrecking the plans of those who forced you out. Not an easy task even so, but easier.
Bit of a pyrrhic victory if that happens and his career is over anyway.It will revert to being a Tory seat in due course whatever happens.
If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?
He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.
Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?
Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.
We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
That does not follow in a Hung Parliament given the possibility of another Government being formed.That was not the case in April 2017.
I'd venture a guess that the main determinant of the success or otherwise of the Tory campaign will indeed be where the Brexit Party's support comes from. If it's largely at the expense of the Conservatives then it could be very costly, but if the Tories' leave-leaning voters decide mostly to back Boris, and the Brexit Party's support therefore comes mainly from never-Tory Labour leave voters then Farage's outfit could be a huge asset in a whole swathe of Lab-Con marginals. We simply don't know.
FWIW, the suggestion from the Brecon & Radnor by-election was that the abysmal Labour performance was largely down to ex-miners in the south of the constituency dumping Labour for the Brexit Party. If true then that might be considered mildly encouraging for the Conservatives.
You have put your finger on it. So hope you washed straightaway.
But yes - if you are running on a softhead populist ticket you MUST get almost all the softhead populist vote otherwise it's curtains.
The other key question for me is, does the fact that Remainers are on the whole more highly educated than Leavers mean that they will vote tactically smarter in a Brexit GE?
Right now my feeling is that Toxic Clown beats Magic Grandpa in this October election.
I don't think you can sensibly have an election before October 31 without an extension. I know nothing is sensible about Brexit. But an election just prior to leaving stops any preparation work dead, even if it's for a crash out.
We’re thrilled that you’ve not only joined the party but are also interested in getting more involved by becoming an approved candidate able to lead the Liberal Democrat team. Please note, however in order to be assessed for approval you must usually be a fully paid party member for 12 consecutive months in England and Wales and 9 consecutive months in Scotland
Why different rules for Scotland I have no idea. I suppose it does say 'usually' you have to be a fully paid party member, but that gives wiggle room for bigwigs I guess.
Blair going LD would be a major moment, it is one piece of craziness I doubt we will be graced with.
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
Very difficult without access to the canvassing data as you well know.
Not about winning, necessarily, but in wrecking the plans of those who forced you out. Not an easy task even so, but easier.
Bit of a pyrrhic victory if that happens and his career is over anyway.It will revert to being a Tory seat in due course whatever happens.
Sure, but if it helps prevent no deal why not try it?
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
It would make it the first interesting election in Penrith and Border for some time; personally I think the Tories (whether Rory or not) will get it. It is not great Lib Dem territory, and is a leave constituency. Full of moderate, one nation Tories however with fond recollections of William Whitelaw, of blessed memory, who managed not to dance with 100 Santas in Penrith - a golden moment in Rory's varied history.
Rory's constituency chair was on R4 earlier, saying that if he stood against a new Tory candidate he and many members would quite likely be campaigning for Rory. Personal loyalties come into play for this sort of thing.
Very difficult without access to the canvassing data as you well know.
Not about winning, necessarily, but in wrecking the plans of those who forced you out. Not an easy task even so, but easier.
Bit of a pyrrhic victory if that happens and his career is over anyway.It will revert to being a Tory seat in due course whatever happens.
Farage never was an MP, and has influenced the fate of the country over the last two decades more than anyone. It *is* possible to do it from outside.
@HYUFD Warwick and Leamington was 60% Remain. You think it’s going to vote for Boris?
The Tories almost gained Warwick in 2005 due to a Labour to LD surge mainly and won it in 2010 when the same thing occurred, I expect the same thing to happen this time. It was also only 58% Remain, not 60%
I have been in Hallam recently. If there is a by-election Laura Gordon will win with a huge majority; if a general election she will win with a large majority.
I do wonder if tonight those independents and some labour mps may decide they fear losing their careers and go absent tomorrow or even vote against
I assume Hoey will be against but what if there are more who mean the bill is lost as will be all those conservatives rebels to their party
Now that would be an irony
I assume they have the numbers.
By the way, those Conservative MPs putting country before party and before their own careers deserve to be applauded right across the political spectrum. History will be very kind to them.
And I thought your comments on here earlier Big G about how it might all play out were very astute. I really hope that after an election in 6 weeks we can put together some kind of government to negotiate a fair minded compromise Brexit deal and/or put this back to the people and allow us to move on to more pressing matters, like schools, transport, inequality, the NHS, social mobility, the climate crisis, you name it.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
That's my theory. If Boris campaigns really well and Corbyn and the LDs trip over each other he could still win, but those damn inconvenient BXPers could take down Brexit because they don't like or trust what Boris may do, even after he tries as hard as possible to prove his Brexiteer credentials.
On the current swing predicted by Survation, Kensington, Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Canterbury, Keighley, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Warwick and Leamington, Stockton South, Ipswich, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Lincoln, Derby North, Wakefield, Battersea etc amongst the Labour seats to fall to the Tories.
We have the Brexit Party pushing their new candidates hard here in Stockton. Why vote for a Tory candidate who wants to negotiate a half-baked non-Brexit when you can vote for the Real Deal?
Can see the Leave vote split wide open. You need to understand that the new paradigm is leave/remain, not Tory/Labour
There are formerly-Labour voters who would never vote Tory who might vote BXP.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
There is a issue, though.
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
It’s hard to know though isn’t it, because on the other hand it helps Boris define himself against Farage where it helps him to do so.
NB: Just fat fingered the keyboard and pressed “off topic” rather than quote; whatever that does. Does it issue a request to you to go off topic?
Comments
The UK is a full member of the EU until it leaves, hence the fact that we still have MEPs (and were legally required to send them,) and continue to contribute financially to the EU budget and to implement new EU legislation. That being the case, I've assumed from the outset that the UK Government recuses itself voluntarily from European Council discussions on Brexit - and could not be legally prevented from casting its vote if it were determined to do so. Or is there something I'm missing here?
Now don’t go smashing any chairs up as you read this. But Some want to prevent Brexit because honestly believe the 2016 direct democracy simple-minded question was afront to British Democracy. What did Ruth say in a parting shot, this mess came about because asking the nation that question was cop out, an abdication of true leadership?
After the great surrenders of sovereignty to EU in 80s and 90s under Thatcher and Major I don’t recall much clamour for a referendum. There is an argument these sort of issues are best sorted by adding a direction of travel to a manifesto in a GE, where if the destination is ill thought out or unpopular it will be exposed, and use parliament to fine tune change, ratify final negotiation.
And I’m not wrong about that, just as if I fail to convince you its all democracy, but some methods just damn stronger ways of doing things, you wont be wrong either to disagree. And the fact we wont agree isn’t wrong either, it’s why we have democracy.
Bottom line is the political crisis here, People doing and saying things in the name of democracy that is in fact for politics not democracy, for personal ambition not for country or even party, and choosing not to recognise that and modify their behaviour like good democrats need to whatever the democratic mechanism, that’s why its all got silly.
Plus the EU would I guess realistically only give us at most a six month extension, so it's not really a problem (although I get that the Tories would still try and use this for election purposes)
Remember Theresa May having to cool her heels while the rest of them had dinner together? That was why.
Still match point down and still desperately hoping to squeeze into the tie-break somehow.
I assume Hoey will be against but what if there are more who mean the bill is lost as will be all those conservatives rebels to their party
Now that would be an irony
But an election was forced upon us.
Except for the box in the bottom-right
The ultimate decision is with parliament. The EU chose the date on this current extension (it was originally hoped to be 1 January, until Macron foreshortened it, as I recall).
Get over yourself. It was a mild gag.
Schools in France are now required to display the French and EU flags in classrooms alongside the words to the national anthem...It was initially suggested as an amendment by Éric Ciotti, an MP from the centre-right opposition party Les Républicains.
After much debate, the government agreed to the amendment, but insisted the EU flag must displayed too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49553523
TGOHF hoped it was true.
Seems not.
A fan of Putin such as yourself might approve. Democrats would not.
But, especially after the Gaukeward Squad are martyred, any Leaver who doesn't want a Remainer Parliament should back the Tories. They are the real deal in a General Election and even Farage knows it.
Hard to imagine Theresa in this situation.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7419549/John-McDonnells-neighbours-deny-claim-street-badly-maintained-overcrowded-homes.html
But he did reply with a very specific answer to my question.
But yes - if you are running on a softhead populist ticket you MUST get almost all the softhead populist vote otherwise it's curtains.
The other key question for me is, does the fact that Remainers are on the whole more highly educated than Leavers mean that they will vote tactically smarter in a Brexit GE?
Right now my feeling is that Toxic Clown beats Magic Grandpa in this October election.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/1059/attachments/original/1518627048/Rules_on_applying_within_a_12_or_9_month_period.pdf?1518627048
Why different rules for Scotland I have no idea. I suppose it does say 'usually' you have to be a fully paid party member, but that gives wiggle room for bigwigs I guess.
Blair going LD would be a major moment, it is one piece of craziness I doubt we will be graced with.
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1168616462283616256
Farage wants two thing: he wants to be relevant, and he wants the UK to leave the EU without a deal.
The Conservative Party wants to leave with a deal, if it can be arranged without the backstop.
Now, the Conservative Party could make an offer to Farage that he would find hard to refuse: they could stand aside in - say - half a dozen Labour Leave seats. But that's a pretty serious hostage to fortune to the Conservative Party. And, it potentially means there would be six MPs who would vote against Conservative Party policy.
So, I think the Brexit Party stands. And I think they get 5-10% of the vote. And they may well rob Mr Johnson of his majority.
I'm not saying Rory will do that, though.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1168612725485985793
But there are ways around not being able to vote on the day of course.
Getting more and more desperate Scott..
By the way, those Conservative MPs putting country before party and before their own careers deserve to be applauded right across the political spectrum. History will be very kind to them.
And I thought your comments on here earlier Big G about how it might all play out were very astute. I really hope that after an election in 6 weeks we can put together some kind of government to negotiate a fair minded compromise Brexit deal and/or put this back to the people and allow us to move on to more pressing matters, like schools, transport, inequality, the NHS, social mobility, the climate crisis, you name it.
NB: Just fat fingered the keyboard and pressed “off topic” rather than quote; whatever that does. Does it issue a request to you to go off topic?