PMQs on Wed should be fun - Boris laughing in chicken Jezza’s face.
I don't think that is how it will be. Bozo will get difficult questions about prorogation. He is also generally frit. Indeed one reason he wants propagation is to avoid the scrutiny of PM questions.
The voters will disagree - the man who doesn’t want to face MPs or the man running scared of the public ?
Isn’t the issue that if the No Deal legislation goes through and the Labour Party refuse to play ball over agreeing a General Election, then Boris is forced to resign?
Well, he would cry "Chicken" but cry is the operative word. I really think Labour has zero option. Johnson could get the election and then decide the election will be on 1st, 8th, 15th November or whenever. We cannot trust him ! He is a Liar of Trumpian proportions.
But as we’ve established, Corbyn could simply demand they use May’s 2017 backup plan Bill to reset the date in FTPA. Guarantees an election on the agreed date and if they both whipped for it, it’d be quick. Mind you Boris has rather cut into the available time....
PMQs on Wed should be fun - Boris laughing in chicken Jezza’s face.
I don't think that is how it will be. Bozo will get difficult questions about prorogation. He is also generally frit. Indeed one reason he wants propagation is to avoid the scrutiny of PM questions.
The voters will disagree - the man who doesn’t want to face MPs or the man running scared of the public ?
The voters don’t want an election. Boris told us that today.
PMQs on Wed should be fun - Boris laughing in chicken Jezza’s face.
I don't think that is how it will be. Bozo will get difficult questions about prorogation. He is also generally frit. Indeed one reason he wants propagation is to avoid the scrutiny of PM questions.
The voters will disagree - the man who doesn’t want to face MPs or the man running scared of the public ?
The voters don’t want an election. Boris told us that today.
Corbyn certainly doesn’t - he’s running for the hills.
Does she only have one setting? Hyperbole or nothing.
Well it literally already happened.
Stochastic terrorism. Someone says something in public about committing acts of violence. Then they say they were "joking" or talking "metaphorically", but someone else has picked up on the violent mood music and does something despicable and stupid.
And nobody's safe from it. This is not just a far-right problem, even if it's the likeliest source of the next outrage. Anyone could be a victim.
If you’re Corbyn, and you can be assured the election is pre-31 Oct I really don’t see the logic in not going for an election. If you don’t, then yes this Bill passes, but then you lose all agency until mid-October. He has a chance, a good chance, of winning an election as mr “only I can stop a no deal” and he can claim the “savings” as funding all sorts.
One thing we do know about maverick genius Dominic Cummings is that he has failed completely to prevent the leaking of sensitive government information. Maybe, just maybe, he’s not as smart as he and the Brexit-backing press think he is.
If you’re Corbyn, and you can be assured the election is pre-31 Oct I really don’t see the logic in not going for an election. If you don’t, then yes this Bill passes, but then you lose all agency until mid-October. He has a chance, a good chance, of winning an election as mr “only I can stop a no deal” and he can claim the “savings” as funding all sorts.
If you’re Corbyn, and you can be assured the election is pre-31 Oct I really don’t see the logic in not going for an election. If you don’t, then yes this Bill passes, but then you lose all agency until mid-October. He has a chance, a good chance, of winning an election as mr “only I can stop a no deal” and he can claim the “savings” as funding all sorts.
If you’re Corbyn, and you can be assured the election is pre-31 Oct I really don’t see the logic in not going for an election. If you don’t, then yes this Bill passes, but then you lose all agency until mid-October. He has a chance, a good chance, of winning an election as mr “only I can stop a no deal” and he can claim the “savings” as funding all sorts.
If you’re Corbyn, and you can be assured the election is pre-31 Oct I really don’t see the logic in not going for an election. If you don’t, then yes this Bill passes, but then you lose all agency until mid-October. He has a chance, a good chance, of winning an election as mr “only I can stop a no deal” and he can claim the “savings” as funding all sorts.
Good try at trolling. Need to improve.
I hope you’re not as unpleasant in real life. Let’s give you the benefit of the doubt.
I really can’t see why I wouldn’t do it, in his position. Absent an election, as part of a Remain Alliance, he gets to watch Boris squirm a bit, and to be fair he might see the Tories implode. But if he wins a mid-Oct election, and freezes Brexit, he’s a hero to many at home and gets to pretty much high five the other EU leaders as he walks into the summit.
I suppose you could say “why do what Boris wants” but this can’t be Boris’ first choice: it’s just what he thinks is his best option.
Oh and in accepting an election, on that theory, Corbyn obviously shouldn’t taken exactly what’s offered. There must be some humiliating concession he could get.
@dixiedean any chance of Guy Opperman losing his seat?
Doubt it. There was a 3.7% swing against him last time. He comes across as an outsider and government mouthpiece. He has made more effort recently to be about more. This is an unusual constituency, in that it is safe Tory, but 54 % estimate Remain. It also has strong pockets of deprivation in ex-mining villages. It is also becoming less rural, and more overspill for well-to-do Newcastle workers. Reckon he will hang on with the blue rosette vote. It stayed Tory in '97, but is definitely trending away from them long-term.
If Parliament extends Art 50 and Parliament turns down an election for now, what do the smart alec's do ?
Johnson would either have to resign or break the law.
Why would he have to resign? The trouble is that parliament keeps giving the impression it just wants to tie the government's hands together but nothing else.
He can't resign the government. That's the point of the absurd FTPA. If it comes to it, I think he might announce that his Cabinet has agreed collectively that it will not seek Royal Assent for the legislation against no deal and to move things on will invite the LOTO to bring a VONC as the first step to establishing whether a new government can be put in place that will, indicating that the government will not whip to oppose the VONC but will vote to oppose the formation of any new government in the 14 day period. And then the question of whether the UK asks for an extension is entirely in the hands of parliament.
The Tories should win the election given Corbyn’s toxicity, so if they don’t it will tell us a hell of a lot about the Tories!
Labour should win the election after 3 terms of the Tories in power and the Tories polling only in the early 30s, if they don't that tells us a hell of a lot about Corbyn Labour!
Yes, as I said, it will tell us what we all know: that Corbyn is utterly toxic. So, if the Tories cannot get a majority against him that will be quite a thing. I suspect they will, but can’t shake off the feeling it may not happen.
If the Tories get a historic 4th term for only the 2nd time in the last 100 years that will be even more a thing!
The election could result in the third act of a second term essentially. The idea this is a 4th term is absurd.
If you are an MP opposed to a No Deal Brexit you’d be certifiably insane to vote to give Boris Johnson the ability to choose - and change - the date of an election.
If you’re Corbyn, and you can be assured the election is pre-31 Oct I really don’t see the logic in not going for an election. If you don’t, then yes this Bill passes, but then you lose all agency until mid-October. He has a chance, a good chance, of winning an election as mr “only I can stop a no deal” and he can claim the “savings” as funding all sorts.
If Corbyn does backtrack on an election, Johnson is going to be in one ugly position wrt the extension. Legally he'll be obliged to request, and seemingly accept.
The Tories should win the election given Corbyn’s toxicity, so if they don’t it will tell us a hell of a lot about the Tories!
Labour should win the election after 3 terms of the Tories in power and the Tories polling only in the early 30s, if they don't that tells us a hell of a lot about Corbyn Labour!
Yes, as I said, it will tell us what we all know: that Corbyn is utterly toxic. So, if the Tories cannot get a majority against him that will be quite a thing. I suspect they will, but can’t shake off the feeling it may not happen.
If the Tories get a historic 4th term for only the 2nd time in the last 100 years that will be even more a thing!
The election could result in the third act of a second term essentially. The idea this is a 4th term is absurd.
A bit, but coming top in 4 elections even if they were close together would be slightly impressive nonetheless.
If you are an MP opposed to a No Deal Brexit you’d be certifiably insane to vote to give Boris Johnson the ability to choose - and change - the date of an election.
But if the date can be fixed, I don’t get why you then wouldn’t agree to it. If something emerges Tuesday/Wednesday that does that then surely it’s a goer? Otherwise I’m not sure what you’d be planning to do as an MP against no deal. The legislation will pass, but then what?
If Corbyn does backtrack on an election, Johnson is going to be in one ugly position wrt the extension. Legally he'll be obliged to request, and seemingly accept.
With LD and SNP well ahead of their seats position in the polls, which way would they vote in a VoNC or similar? The SNP have said that Brexit makes SIndy more likely...
@dixiedean any chance of Guy Opperman losing his seat?
Doubt it. There was a 3.7% swing against him last time. He comes across as an outsider and government mouthpiece. He has made more effort recently to be about more. This is an unusual constituency, in that it is safe Tory, but 54 % estimate Remain. It also has strong pockets of deprivation in ex-mining villages. It is also becoming less rural, and more overspill for well-to-do Newcastle workers. Reckon he will hang on with the blue rosette vote. It stayed Tory in '97, but is definitely trending away from them long-term.
Thanks for the insight.
I note that the Brexit Party will be standing which could shake things up!
@dixiedean any chance of Guy Opperman losing his seat?
Doubt it. There was a 3.7% swing against him last time. He comes across as an outsider and government mouthpiece. He has made more effort recently to be about more. This is an unusual constituency, in that it is safe Tory, but 54 % estimate Remain. It also has strong pockets of deprivation in ex-mining villages. It is also becoming less rural, and more overspill for well-to-do Newcastle workers. Reckon he will hang on with the blue rosette vote. It stayed Tory in '97, but is definitely trending away from them long-term.
Ironically, it is your drinking land of Ponteland which keeps it safe. Remove that and it would be more marginal.
Should we thank Nick Clegg for a poorly thought-out legislation ? Who cares ? This is the law right now. I thought one Parliament could not bind future ones.
But it was oh so funny when Farage and co were assaulted and comedians joked about throwing battery acid. Milkshaking it was all just for the LOLs during the Euros.
I guess so. Boris loyalists plus SNP, who stand to benefit. Oddly opposed by the opposition, but since it would put the election date in law (presumably pre-Brexit to get SNP support) they’d have a devil of a time arguing why.
The Tories should win the election given Corbyn’s toxicity, so if they don’t it will tell us a hell of a lot about the Tories!
Labour should win the election after 3 terms of the Tories in power and the Tories polling only in the early 30s, if they don't that tells us a hell of a lot about Corbyn Labour!
Yes, as I said, it will tell us what we all know: that Corbyn is utterly toxic. So, if the Tories cannot get a majority against him that will be quite a thing. I suspect they will, but can’t shake off the feeling it may not happen.
If the Tories get a historic 4th term for only the 2nd time in the last 100 years that will be even more a thing!
The election could result in the third act of a second term essentially. The idea this is a 4th term is absurd.
Yes. Although we disagree on many things, this we can agree on. Remarkable to reflect with all that has happened that Cameron's 2015 mandate hasn't actually expired yet...
Should we thank Nick Clegg for a poorly thought-out legislation ? Who cares ? This is the law right now. I thought one Parliament could not bind future ones.
So, unless I am not following this: Boris makes any vote for an extension etc etc as a confidence issue (effectively) and then when he loses, thanks to 20 rebels, he attempts to pass a GE call with 2/3 and fails.
If it was so easy why didn't Mrs May use it. She actually had a majority then !
There was no need because Corbyn gave her the 2/3 majority. A Bill, even a simple one, takes longer. The election gained an extra two weeks because she allowed for that.
Ironically the prorogation might come to bite him in the arse there....
Will be interesting what the mob that are convinced Boris is undertaking some sort of coup will be shouting if he says ok lets have an election. Its quite a hard one to justify to continue to scream about dictatorship / coup / affront to democracy.
@dixiedean any chance of Guy Opperman losing his seat?
Doubt it. There was a 3.7% swing against him last time. He comes across as an outsider and government mouthpiece. He has made more effort recently to be about more. This is an unusual constituency, in that it is safe Tory, but 54 % estimate Remain. It also has strong pockets of deprivation in ex-mining villages. It is also becoming less rural, and more overspill for well-to-do Newcastle workers. Reckon he will hang on with the blue rosette vote. It stayed Tory in '97, but is definitely trending away from them long-term.
Thanks for the insight.
I note that the Brexit Party will be standing which could shake things up!
She actually gave an interview to the local rag. She came across as not only having strong connections to the area, but also determinedly sane. Sadly, I fear this will be one of the few areas where BP could take more Labour than Tory votes.
Someone wants £13k at 1/4 an election this year... value to lay?
Surely even if this opportunity falls, they’ll be a VONC at some stage, and a patchwork coalition couldn’t last long. Feels like an election this calendar year is almost nailed on, and there’s not much upside risk there.
I remember when they last did vox pops in Northern working men's clubs...lots of flat cap northerners said they thought Mrs May was a fine leader and despite having voted Labour all their life they were going with her at the GE rather than that Commie Corbyn.
Should we thank Nick Clegg for a poorly thought-out legislation ? Who cares ? This is the law right now. I thought one Parliament could not bind future ones.
Parliament is bound by the law. Not binding future Parliaments simply means no Parliament can make the laws it makes unrepealable or unamendable by future Parliaments. But it a future Parliament wants to repeal or amend a previous Parliament’s legislation, it has to do so through the same procedure as other primary legislation.
If it was so easy why didn't Mrs May use it. She actually had a majority then !
She didn't need to. Jezza was up for the fight. Then.
Jezza can’t bear to lose again.
I'm sure this is all just wibbly, wobbly Blairites spouting off. They're only happy when they are bombing the crap out of some impovrished Middle East nation - When it comes to a real fight - like the 2019 general election would be - they're Frit!
If it was so easy why didn't Mrs May use it. She actually had a majority then !
There was no need because Corbyn gave her the 2/3 majority. A Bill, even a simple one, takes longer. The election gained an extra two weeks because she allowed for that.
Ironically the prorogation might come to bite him in the arse there....
The real reason is the HoL will not pass it, at least, in the present time. This is NOT a Finance Bill.
Will be interesting what the mob that are convinced Boris is undertaking some sort of coup will be shouting if he says ok lets have an election. Its quite a hard one to justify to continue to scream about dictatorship / coup / affront to democracy.
The optics of a parliament / opposition leader first stopping Brexit* and then stopping a GE after 2 years of saying we need a GE / 2nd Referendum, while also trying to claim the PM is anti-democratic will look terrible.
* I know they aren't voting to stop Brexit, only a no-deal, but lots of people will see it as such.
I remember when they last did vox pops in Northern working men's clubs...lots of flat cap northerners said they thought Mrs May was a fine leader and despite having voted Labour all their life they were going with her at the GE rather than that Commie Corbyn.
Well indeed. The problem with those vox pops is they missed the narrative by not going to the Sure Start down the road.
The optics of a parliament / opposition leader first stopping Brexit* and then stopping a GE after 2 years of saying we need a GE / 2nd Referendum, while also trying to claim the PM is anti-democratic will look terrible.
* I know they aren't voting to stop Brexit, only a no-deal, but lots of people will see it as such.
You were right first time, they are largely voting to stop Brexit.
If it was so easy why didn't Mrs May use it. She actually had a majority then !
There was no need because Corbyn gave her the 2/3 majority. A Bill, even a simple one, takes longer. The election gained an extra two weeks because she allowed for that.
Ironically the prorogation might come to bite him in the arse there....
The real reason is the HoL will not pass it, at least, in the present time. This is NOT a Finance Bill.
So now the House Of Crooks is going to block a general election (as well as doing everything they can to prevent Brexit)
Should we thank Nick Clegg for a poorly thought-out legislation ? Who cares ? This is the law right now. I thought one Parliament could not bind future ones.
Parliament is bound by the law. Not binding future Parliaments simply means no Parliament can make the laws it makes unrepealable or unamendable by future Parliaments. But it a future Parliament wants to repeal or amend a previous Parliament’s legislation, it has to do so through the same procedure as other primary legislation.
I know that. That is why I found hilarious that great people [sic] like Andrew Neil were saying why should the opposition and rebels pass the law tomorrow. Precisely, because it remains as law until it is repealed by both houses.
If it was so easy why didn't Mrs May use it. She actually had a majority then !
There was no need because Corbyn gave her the 2/3 majority. A Bill, even a simple one, takes longer. The election gained an extra two weeks because she allowed for that.
Ironically the prorogation might come to bite him in the arse there....
The real reason is the HoL will not pass it, at least, in the present time. This is NOT a Finance Bill.
I don’t think this route is that likely so let’s not spend too long down this rabbit hole, but the Lords is a very different place and not “opposition controlled” as such. I’m not sure their Lordships would prevent the Commons, if the Commons had voted for an election in this way. They tend to be conscious of their unelected status and this is the sort of thing they’d be nervous of blocking.
The optics of a parliament / opposition leader first stopping Brexit* and then stopping a GE after 2 years of saying we need a GE / 2nd Referendum, while also trying to claim the PM is anti-democratic will look terrible.
* I know they aren't voting to stop Brexit, only a no-deal, but lots of people will see it as such.
You were right first time, they are largely voting to stop Brexit.
Comments
https://twitter.com/MissEllieMae/status/1168225988834222080
(Except Larry is pissed off at the new puppy)
She's a desperate Blairite, Remainer. She's not in the inner sanctum of Chairman Corbyn... Shes not even close to to it.
She doesn't know what Jezza is ruminating on in his zen-like state tonight.
And nobody's safe from it. This is not just a far-right problem, even if it's the likeliest source of the next outrage. Anyone could be a victim.
People ought to calm down.
#Frit !
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1168655980881727488?s=21
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1168655980881727488?s=21
They don't really get this democracy thing do they?
Fortunately Jezza will show them way...
I really can’t see why I wouldn’t do it, in his position. Absent an election, as part of a Remain Alliance, he gets to watch Boris squirm a bit, and to be fair he might see the Tories implode. But if he wins a mid-Oct election, and freezes Brexit, he’s a hero to many at home and gets to pretty much high five the other EU leaders as he walks into the summit.
I suppose you could say “why do what Boris wants” but this can’t be Boris’ first choice: it’s just what he thinks is his best option.
Oh and in accepting an election, on that theory, Corbyn obviously shouldn’t taken exactly what’s offered. There must be some humiliating concession he could get.
Jeez, this is turning into 3-D chess.
This is an unusual constituency, in that it is safe Tory, but 54 % estimate Remain. It also has strong pockets of deprivation in ex-mining villages. It is also becoming less rural, and more overspill for well-to-do Newcastle workers. Reckon he will hang on with the blue rosette vote.
It stayed Tory in '97, but is definitely trending away from them long-term.
With LD and SNP well ahead of their seats position in the polls, which way would they vote in a VoNC or similar? The SNP have said that Brexit makes SIndy more likely...
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1168093918564618240
I note that the Brexit Party will be standing which could shake things up!
So we get the extension?
Ironically the prorogation might come to bite him in the arse there....
But Jezza won't let us down!
https://twitter.com/DavidStonehous7/status/1167353365136846849
Opposition control the Lords.
So:
Opposition can get No Deal Bill through the Lords (assuming they can prevent filibuster)
But:
Govt can't get any GE / Brexit related Bill through the Lords.
* I know they aren't voting to stop Brexit, only a no-deal, but lots of people will see it as such.
Good luck with explaining that Your Lordships.
Precisely, because it remains as law until it is repealed by both houses.