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  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477

    Another election in student term time.

    Is the voter ID thing in yet, such that it would apply?
  • nunuone said:

    tlg86 said:
    Let's say 250 Tory mps vote for it, and another 200 labour mps as well. That is easily enough
    SNP and DUP and Plaid +49
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think that’s already been dealt with. The government can bring forward legislation to specifically require a GE on a certain date.
    What's with the 14th? Would we really have a GE on a Monday?
    Days before the last EU council meeting before 31st October

    It does make sense and I just cannot see how labour reject it but retain any credibility

    For me it has to come and to be honest I am willing to accept the verdict of the people in a GE and whatever will be will be
    I am the same. Roll the dice. Let democracy speak. What will be will be. Anything is better than this endless horror.
    Well me too tbf. If Boris campaigns on No Deal and wins a majority, so be it. At least the country will have voted for No Deal in that situation.

    Is this a rare but important moment of PB accord?

    I hope so. We are all democrats. Aren’t we? Then let an election decide it all.

    If the Scots vote for 100 MPs, let them have a referendum and go indy. So be it. If the Libs win, let them revoke Brexit, and make sandals compulsory on weekdays. If Corbyn wins out, and wants Chavez style communism, fair enough, I’ll likely leave for Greece, but fair enough.

    Let us choose. And put an end to the gruesome and endless pantomime we have now.
    Exactly my attitude.

    Lets have a GE and shake it all out

    Mind you my cruise to Canada and US takes me away from the 14th September to the 8th October so I get the pleasure of missing all the campaigns
    Probably a blessing.
  • HYUFD said:

    ‪Cummings is doing all he can to revive the 2017 Tory electoral coalition, but in doing so is also giving Labour the best possible chance of reviving its one. And this time with added LibDem and SNP interest in seats Labour can’t win. It’s a huge gamble.‬

    Well true but that is the only way the Tories can win, reviving May's post extension coalition which saw the Tories get just 9% in the European elections and get beaten by the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour and come third in the Peterborough by election was a disaster.

    The LDs are also polling higher than in 2017 and Labour is polling lower

    My guess is that Labour will end up in the high 20s/low 30s. The key to Johnson’s victory will be how well the LibDems do - and where.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510

    kinabalu said:

    I would say unprincipled but not vacuous. He's clearly very clever, cleverer than Cameron. But I thought he came over as damaged.

    Yes, I very much sense something like that.

    He reminds me of Jimmy Savile.

    Not in a defamatory sense - I don't mean that - but in the bluff deflecting 'persona', never quite serious, hiding what is really at the core, which could be quite dark, or it could be - and this in a sense is the darkest of all - NOTHING.

    Patrick Bateman. Tom Ripley. And, yes, Jimmy Savile These types. You know what I mean?
    Yes and also not wanting to be defamatory but I agree with you totally. There's something not quite right about him.
    Boris is very unnerving like that in real life. I met him twice, and he’s friendly, but in a somewhat sinister way. He’s a very odd guy.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    ‪Cummings is doing all he can to revive the 2017 Tory electoral coalition, but in doing so is also giving Labour the best possible chance of reviving its one. And this time with added LibDem and SNP interest in seats Labour can’t win. It’s a huge gamble.‬

    I think most Remain voters can easily spot the difference between common or garden Labour MPs and raging Corbynites (who are fewer in number). I’d expect a huge tactical voting campaign and, given nobody expects a Corbo majority, people feeling safe to vote Labour. As you say, similar to 2017.

    Demographic change brings interesting seats into play like Chingford & Woodford Green, a leafy seat in the far north London suburbs close to Epping Forest, which was once a Tory stronghold, which went marginally for Remain. Arch Leaver IDS has a fight on his hands there now.
    He won’t be facing a Brexit party candidate - unlike many Labour MPs in the north.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Are we all ready for 5-10 years of Boris? Let’s party like it’s 1983.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    ‪Cummings is doing all he can to revive the 2017 Tory electoral coalition, but in doing so is also giving Labour the best possible chance of reviving its one. And this time with added LibDem and SNP interest in seats Labour can’t win. It’s a huge gamble.‬

    Well true but that is the only way the Tories can win, reviving May's post extension coalition which saw the Tories get just 9% in the European elections and get beaten by the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour and come third in the Peterborough by election was a disaster.

    The LDs are also polling higher than in 2017 and Labour is polling lower
    But the Tory lead is much smaller than it was in late April 2017 - six weeks before Polling Day.
  • If there's an early election what happens to the boundary commission proposals? Do they die and we start again, or could they be voted on next Parliament?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:

    This is going to be a factor on the campaign trail

    https://twitter.com/stavvers/status/1168603522725818368

    BoZo is used to being surrounded by adoring fans.

    This desperate - utterly desperate - desire to be loved was really obvious the one time I met Johnson. He has charisma, but you could tell that he totally needed the attention of the room. I guess a lot of politicians are like this. But I've met 5 former or future PMs as well as other former Cabinet ministers and other senior politicians and none of them were like this. I feel absolutely certain that things will end very badly for him. And for us as long as he is in power.
    And yet Churchill famously had the same problem. Narcissism.

    It can be bad, it can be good. Depends on the context.
    True but most of our election winning PMs, Churchill (in 1951), Wilson, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron etc had masses of charisma and narcissism, as does Boris
    But logically your argument only works if you can show that election losing PMs had less in the way of charisma and narcissism. Indeed the prima facie hypothesis might be that it was the ones with lots of self-deluding narcissism who were prone to lose.
    On the whole they did, Home, Heath, Major (in 1997), Brown and May (in the sense she lost her majority in 2017) all lacked charisma or certainly the charisma of election winning PMs. The charismatic Wilson did lose to the dull Heath once in 1970 but beat him 3 times more in 1966, Feb and Oct 1974 and beat Home in 1964 too.

    Attlee is probably the only example of a postwar non charismatic PM who won more than 1 general election, but he was largely pre the TV age, came to power when social reforms he promised were felt to be badly needed and of course overall even he lost to Churchill in 1951, to Eden in 1955 and to Baldwin in 1935 even though he won in 1945 and 1950
  • justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪Cummings is doing all he can to revive the 2017 Tory electoral coalition, but in doing so is also giving Labour the best possible chance of reviving its one. And this time with added LibDem and SNP interest in seats Labour can’t win. It’s a huge gamble.‬

    Well true but that is the only way the Tories can win, reviving May's post extension coalition which saw the Tories get just 9% in the European elections and get beaten by the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour and come third in the Peterborough by election was a disaster.

    The LDs are also polling higher than in 2017 and Labour is polling lower
    But the Tory lead is much smaller than it was in late April 2017 - six weeks before Polling Day.
    Boris isn't May.

    This election is clearly needed and not just cynically trying to capitalise on opinion poll leads like May.

    Wait for the polls next week.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    RobD said:

    If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?

    He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.

    Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?

    Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
  • Scott_P said:

    This is going to be a factor on the campaign trail

    https://twitter.com/stavvers/status/1168603522725818368

    BoZo is used to being surrounded by adoring fans.

    This desperate - utterly desperate - desire to be loved was really obvious the one time I met Johnson. He has charisma, but you could tell that he totally needed the attention of the room. I guess a lot of politicians are like this. But I've met 5 former or future PMs as well as other former Cabinet ministers and other senior politicians and none of them were like this. I feel absolutely certain that things will end very badly for him. And for us as long as he is in power.

    Blimey - you've met 5 PMs?
    Yes. I wasn't trying to show off, just putting my comments on Johnson in some context.
    No, I didn't think you were trying to show off but as someone who has never met a single cabinet minister, let alone a PM, I was impressed!
    Almost without fail they have been pretty much exactly as you would have imagined. Callaghan - avuncular; Major - lovely; Blair - articulate; Cameron - slick; Johnson - desperate. They were all superficial interactions from their POV, only Callaghan knew who I was.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Looks like the SCons are going into the election leaderless, and SLab might as well be, for all the good Leonard does.

    Does this matter?

    Yes.

    Sturgeon and Rennie have an open field.

    The Last election was "Nicola or Ruth"

    This one will be "Nicola or BoZo"
    Slam dunk.
    The SNP are still polling below 2015 levels when Ruth was still Tory leader in Scotland
    How do you know? We haven’t had any Scottish VI polls since June.
    Not one Westminster Scottish subsample has had the SNP even matching the 50% they got in 2015

    Tut tut. You really ought to know better - especially given you are conversing with Stuart - a man who spent what seemed liked several decades in the PB cooler simply for citing said subsamples.

    Neobrexitism really has addled your mind.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019
    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    Think this deserves another viewing...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUDEpqyJ-_w
  • kinabalu said:

    I would say unprincipled but not vacuous. He's clearly very clever, cleverer than Cameron. But I thought he came over as damaged.

    Yes, I very much sense something like that.

    He reminds me of Jimmy Savile.

    Not in a defamatory sense - I don't mean that - but in the bluff deflecting 'persona', never quite serious, hiding what is really at the core, which could be quite dark, or it could be - and this in a sense is the darkest of all - NOTHING.

    Patrick Bateman. Tom Ripley. And, yes, Jimmy Savile These types. You know what I mean?
    Yes and also not wanting to be defamatory but I agree with you totally. There's something not quite right about him.
    Boris is very unnerving like that in real life. I met him twice, and he’s friendly, but in a somewhat sinister way. He’s a very odd guy.
    I'd hesitantly suggest that anyone *interesting* is slightly odd. Because being not-odd is normal, and normal is distinctly uninteresting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think that’s already been dealt with. The government can bring forward legislation to specifically require a GE on a certain date.
    What's with the 14th? Would we really have a GE on a Monday?
    Days before the last EU council meeting before 31st October

    It does make sense and I just cannot see how labour reject it but retain any credibility

    For me it has to come and to be honest I am willing to accept the verdict of the people in a GE and whatever will be will be
    I am the same. Roll the dice. Let democracy speak. What will be will be. Anything is better than this endless horror.
    Well me too tbf. If Boris campaigns on No Deal and wins a majority, so be it. At least the country will have voted for No Deal in that situation.

    Is this a rare but important moment of PB accord?

    I hope so. We are all democrats. Aren’t we? Then let an election decide it all.

    If the Scots vote for 100 MPs, let them have a referendum and go indy. So be it. If the Libs win, let them revoke Brexit, and make sandals compulsory on weekdays. If Corbyn wins out, and wants Chavez style communism, fair enough, I’ll likely leave for Greece, but fair enough.

    Let us choose. And put an end to the gruesome and endless pantomime we have now.
    Exactly my attitude.

    Lets have a GE and shake it all out

    Mind you my cruise to Canada and US takes me away from the 14th September to the 8th October so I get the pleasure of missing all the campaigns
    Probably a blessing.
    It is Ben. Indeed I am more relaxed tonight than a long time

    I hope it comes to pass, we need a new HOC and I will accept the result and move on
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Looks like the SCons are going into the election leaderless, and SLab might as well be, for all the good Leonard does.

    Does this matter?

    Yes.

    Sturgeon and Rennie have an open field.

    The Last election was "Nicola or Ruth"

    This one will be "Nicola or BoZo"
    Slam dunk.
    The SNP are still polling below 2015 levels when Ruth was still Tory leader in Scotland
    How do you know? We haven’t had any Scottish VI polls since June.
    Not one Westminster Scottish subsample has had the SNP even matching the 50% they got in 2015
    Sub-samples?? Watch out. You’ll get yourself banned.

    I love how the concept of the SNP not quite reaching 50% is seen as a disaster, whereas the Tories creeping above 30% is seen as an immense victory.
  • RobD said:

    If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?

    He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.

    Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?

    Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
    Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.

    We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Scott_P said:

    This is going to be a factor on the campaign trail

    https://twitter.com/stavvers/status/1168603522725818368

    BoZo is used to being surrounded by adoring fans.

    This desperate - utterly desperate - desire to be loved was really obvious the one time I met Johnson. He has charisma, but you could tell that he totally needed the attention of the room. I guess a lot of politicians are like this. But I've met 5 former or future PMs as well as other former Cabinet ministers and other senior politicians and none of them were like this. I feel absolutely certain that things will end very badly for him. And for us as long as he is in power.

    Blimey - you've met 5 PMs?
    Yes. I wasn't trying to show off, just putting my comments on Johnson in some context.
    No, I didn't think you were trying to show off but as someone who has never met a single cabinet minister, let alone a PM, I was impressed!
    Almost without fail they have been pretty much exactly as you would have imagined. Callaghan - avuncular; Major - lovely; Blair - articulate; Cameron - slick; Johnson - desperate. They were all superficial interactions from their POV, only Callaghan knew who I was.
    Interesting, thanks.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any MP voting for an election is risking a no deal - as Boris could win a majority.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Good for him. Supportive of what he is trying to do or not he is showing he is prepared to take a stand.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Looks like the SCons are going into the election leaderless, and SLab might as well be, for all the good Leonard does.

    Does this matter?

    Yes.

    Sturgeon and Rennie have an open field.

    The Last election was "Nicola or Ruth"

    This one will be "Nicola or BoZo"
    Slam dunk.
    The SNP are still polling below 2015 levels when Ruth was still Tory leader in Scotland
    How do you know? We haven’t had any Scottish VI polls since June.
    Not one Westminster Scottish subsample has had the SNP even matching the 50% they got in 2015
    Sub-samples?? Watch out. You’ll get yourself banned.

    I love how the concept of the SNP not quite reaching 50% is seen as a disaster, whereas the Tories creeping above 30% is seen as an immense victory.
    Well, relative levels of success and so on.
  • GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
    If its the end of Bozo then its also the end of Brexit and that would be very lucky indeed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510
    CatMan said:

    Think this deserves another viewing...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUDEpqyJ-_w

    Yes, funny, and Merton’s comic timing on the Major Goof gag was impeccable. But despite Bunter’s deflection, it’s a pretty low act.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If Nicholas Soames loses the whip, going to be a great election campaign for BoZo

    "I stood up for Britain by expelling Churchill's grandson..."

  • Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    RobD said:

    If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?

    He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.

    Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?

    Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
    Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.

    We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
    Yes, I think you're right. In hindsight it didn't offer the protection to junior coalition parties it was intended to.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510

    kinabalu said:

    I would say unprincipled but not vacuous. He's clearly very clever, cleverer than Cameron. But I thought he came over as damaged.

    Yes, I very much sense something like that.

    He reminds me of Jimmy Savile.

    Not in a defamatory sense - I don't mean that - but in the bluff deflecting 'persona', never quite serious, hiding what is really at the core, which could be quite dark, or it could be - and this in a sense is the darkest of all - NOTHING.

    Patrick Bateman. Tom Ripley. And, yes, Jimmy Savile These types. You know what I mean?
    Yes and also not wanting to be defamatory but I agree with you totally. There's something not quite right about him.
    Boris is very unnerving like that in real life. I met him twice, and he’s friendly, but in a somewhat sinister way. He’s a very odd guy.
    I'd hesitantly suggest that anyone *interesting* is slightly odd. Because being not-odd is normal, and normal is distinctly uninteresting.
    Generally. But he was odd, slightly sinister, and not hugely interesting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707
    edited September 2019

    My well considered response is tbat you are as bad as the racists, tarring people not bevause of their views and actions but because of their associations. I presume you consider all 17 million who voted for Brexit to be racists. That is why you are part of the problem not the solution.

    You are entitled to your opinion, however (ahem) interesting that opinion might be. I can't see how I've said anything that logically leads to your comments, and your offensive comments seem based on utter defensiveness - i.e. from a poor position.

    But sheer offensiveness seems to be all you can offer nowadays, sadly.

    As for calling me 'as bad as the racists': you might want to look at whose side you are on, and the moral metal of your fellow travellers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think that’s already been dealt with. The government can bring forward legislation to specifically require a GE on a certain date.
    What's with the 14th? Would we really have a GE on a Monday?
    Days before the last EU council meeting before 31st October

    It does make sense and I just cannot see how labour reject it but retain any credibility

    For me it has to come and to be honest I am willing to accept the verdict of the people in a GE and whatever will be will be
    I am the same. Roll the dice. Let democracy speak. What will be will be. Anything is better than this endless horror.
    Well me too tbf. If Boris campaigns on No Deal and wins a majority, so be it. At least the country will have voted for No Deal in that situation.

    Is this a rare but important moment of PB accord?

    I hope so. We are all democrats. Aren’t we? Then let an election decide it all.

    If the Scots vote for 100 MPs, let them have a referendum and go indy. So be it. If the Libs win, let them revoke Brexit, and make sandals compulsory on weekdays. If Corbyn wins out, and wants Chavez style communism, fair enough, I’ll likely leave for Greece, but fair enough.

    Let us choose. And put an end to the gruesome and endless pantomime we have now.
    Exactly my attitude.

    Lets have a GE and shake it all out

    Mind you my cruise to Canada and US takes me away from the 14th September to the 8th October so I get the pleasure of missing all the campaigns
    Probably a blessing.
    It is Ben. Indeed I am more relaxed tonight than a long time

    I hope it comes to pass, we need a new HOC and I will accept the result and move on
    It is going to be an interesting campaign mind :wink:
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Will Johnson stand from Uxbridge ? If he does, then it would be fun.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510

    GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
    That would be the champagne scenario.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
    No way the Tory party can retain sane former Tory voters if they have any deal with the BXP
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:

    This is going to be a factor on the campaign trail

    https://twitter.com/stavvers/status/1168603522725818368

    BoZo is used to being surrounded by adoring fans.

    This desperate - utterly desperate - desire to be loved was really obvious the one time I met Johnson. He has charisma, but you could tell that he totally needed the attention of the room. I guess a lot of politicians are like this. But I've met 5 former or future PMs as well as other former Cabinet ministers and other senior politicians and none of them were like this. I feel absolutely certain that things will end very badly for him. And for us as long as he is in power.
    And yet Churchill famously had the same problem. Narcissism.

    It can be bad, it can be good. Depends on the context.
    True but most of our election winning PMs, Churchill (in 1951), Wilson, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron etc had masses of charisma and narcissism, as does Boris
    No. He's a pratt.
  • GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
    That would be the champagne scenario.
    Who is going to attempt an accumulator on Boz, Jez and Swinz all losing their seats?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
    No way the Tory party can retain sane former Tory voters if they have any deal with the BXP
    The problem is that the alternative is Corbyn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    TGOHF said:
    Except the very next paragraph provides that the HoC must approve it.

    Either sloppy or partisan reporting from Harry Cole.
  • eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
    No way the Tory party can retain sane former Tory voters if they have any deal with the BXP
    Forget no deal Brexit: No deal election.

    Let Farage rant and rave and attract Labour Leave supporting never-Tories, no harm in that. Anyone torn between Tory and BXP should have an easy choice and make it themselves, no need for a deal. We don't need a deal with Farage, we can beat him and Corbyn.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    RobD said:

    If the rebels manage to pass the measure blocking No Deal is Boris going to regret the prorogation?

    He may need more parliamentary time than remains until 9th September in order to repeal the FTPA.

    Why would this parliament repeal the FTPA?

    Well that was just one option for bringing about an early GE being mooted earlier. But tbf it sounds like Corbyn would support the FTPA 2/3rds vote anyway.
    Of course he would as will all LOTO always ever, unless they had the Parliamentary numbers to get a majority already which is the only time the FTPA makes a difference.

    We get this nonsense about 2/3rds all the time but the second the PM stands at the podium and says we are having an election, we are having an election. The oppositions votes are a mere formality.
    Yes, I think you're right. In hindsight it didn't offer the protection to junior coalition parties it was intended to.
    Let’s wait and see - if tomorrow’s act passes why let Boris have an election - he will be leading a minority Government unable to pass anything
  • My well considered response is tbat you are as bad as the racists, tarring people not bevause of their views and actions but because of their associations. I presume you consider all 17 million who voted for Brexit to be racists. That is why you are part of the problem not the solution.

    You are entitled to your opinion, however (ahem) interesting that opinion might be. I can't see how I've said anything that logically leads to your comments, and your offensive comments seem based on utter defensiveness - i.e. from a poor position.

    But sheer offensiveness seems to be all you can offer nowadays, sadly.

    As for calling me 'as bad as the racists': you might want to look at whose side you are on, and the moral metal of your fellow travellers.
    There you go again. So all 17 million who voted to Leave sre racists in your eyes. You really are an arrogant prick.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,711

    Another election in student term time.

    Good point.

    However, might there be an issue with registration?

    ie Deadline for registering to vote will / may be before many students arrive for the start of the University term.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
    I think something dramatic will result from this election actually. I have a feeling the country will swing decisively one way or another in 2019. People have had enough and want resolution... What will that resolution be?
  • GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
    That would be the champagne scenario.
    Who is going to attempt an accumulator on Boz, Jez and Swinz all losing their seats?
    It is not impossible
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:
    Except the very next paragraph provides that the HoC must approve it.

    Either sloppy or partisan reporting from Harry Cole.
    The hardcore remainer MPs will vote it through- it’s a done deal what ever Brussels wants , Remainer MPs will do as they are told.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MikeL said:

    Another election in student term time.

    Good point.

    However, might there be an issue with registration?

    ie Deadline for registering to vote will / may be before many students arrive for the start of the University term.
    They can just register online. Not a problem.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    My well considered response is tbat you are as bad as the racists, tarring people not bevause of their views and actions but because of their associations. I presume you consider all 17 million who voted for Brexit to be racists. That is why you are part of the problem not the solution.

    You are entitled to your opinion, however (ahem) interesting that opinion might be. I can't see how I've said anything that logically leads to your comments, and your offensive comments seem based on utter defensiveness - i.e. from a poor position.

    But sheer offensiveness seems to be all you can offer nowadays, sadly.

    As for calling me 'as bad as the racists': you might want to look at whose side you are on, and the moral metal of your fellow travellers.
    There you go again. So all 17 million who voted to Leave sre racists in your eyes. You really are an arrogant prick.
    Ffs Tyndall, chill a little.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,711

    If there's an early election what happens to the boundary commission proposals? Do they die and we start again, or could they be voted on next Parliament?

    Can be voted on next Parliament.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited September 2019

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
    No way the Tory party can retain sane former Tory voters if they have any deal with the BXP
    Forget no deal Brexit: No deal election.

    Let Farage rant and rave and attract Labour Leave supporting never-Tories, no harm in that. Anyone torn between Tory and BXP should have an easy choice and make it themselves, no need for a deal. We don't need a deal with Farage, we can beat him and Corbyn.
    Yes but you lose to the SNP and Lib Dems and that may be a lot of seats if you chuck out the people you seem to be throwing out.
  • GIN1138 said:

    A few tidbits

    14th October 2019 UK general election will be

    1. The first October general election since 1974

    2. The first day a general election hasn't been held on a Thursday since 1931.

    Of the three general elections that have been held in October since 1918 Labour have won one narrowly (1974) and Con have won two with landslides (1924 and 1931)

    On the whole the omens don't look good for Labour but for Marxists everywhere October is the month of revolution so... ;)

    I suspect a seriously hung parliament might be the outcome, with LDs and SNP holind the balance.

    It could be the end of both Boris and Jezza (if we're lucky).
    That would be the champagne scenario.
    Who is going to attempt an accumulator on Boz, Jez and Swinz all losing their seats?
    It is not impossible
    Absolutely, that's why I expect at least 1, if not 2 of them, to nip into a vacant seat which might be deemed 'safer'.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:
    There is no end to these people’s obsequious obeisance to Brussels. Nothing their own country wants matters. It’s all about the greater good.
    That's not exactly what it says, is it?

    Parliament have to agree it.

    Since we have proved incapable as a country of progressing this, perhaps we need wiser heads to give us advice on what is achievable.
    And if Parliament don’t accept it then we leave without a deal?

    But they’ve said we won’t lesve without a deal

    So...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    Still don't see the point as Labour will be expecting to win the election and can then stop Brexit themselves.

    Passing a motion to stop No Deal is surely an admission they expect to lose (or at the very least not win) the election?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I shall never forgive for not resigning as Justice Secretary over the furore around Worboys. Not because he deserved to resign, but because I got on really good odds of him being the next Cabinet Minister out when the story was in the news, I could have made a packet.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    MikeL said:

    If there's an early election what happens to the boundary commission proposals? Do they die and we start again, or could they be voted on next Parliament?

    Can be voted on next Parliament.
    Start again(again)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    if Hammond feels he is in the right - why didn’t he stand in the leadership election ?
  • Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
    That's a fine idea, as long as the number of Tory/BXP waverers prevented from moving to the BXP exceeds the number of people repelled by Conservatives (and they are Conservatives) being thrown out.

    That might be where your idea falls down.

    For one, the Conservatives have irretrievably lost my vote under the current regime.

    I believe the usual response is: "We don;t need your vote!" ;)
  • kinabalu said:

    I would say unprincipled but not vacuous. He's clearly very clever, cleverer than Cameron. But I thought he came over as damaged.

    Yes, I very much sense something like that.

    He reminds me of Jimmy Savile.

    Not in a defamatory sense - I don't mean that - but in the bluff deflecting 'persona', never quite serious, hiding what is really at the core, which could be quite dark, or it could be - and this in a sense is the darkest of all - NOTHING.

    Patrick Bateman. Tom Ripley. And, yes, Jimmy Savile These types. You know what I mean?
    Yes and also not wanting to be defamatory but I agree with you totally. There's something not quite right about him.
    Boris is very unnerving like that in real life. I met him twice, and he’s friendly, but in a somewhat sinister way. He’s a very odd guy.
    I have twice encountered Boris in real life. On the first occasion, he shook me by the hand and hoped that I would vote for him, as I exited Waterloo Station. I said that I would love to, but as the train I had been on had last stopped in Hampshire, it was likely that no-one on it was eligible to vote for him. On the other occasion I was nearly taken out by a mop-headed cyclist trying to beat the traffic as I crossed one of the side streets to Piccadilly
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Still don't see the point as Labour will be expecting to win the election and can then stop Brexit themselves.

    Passing a motion to stop No Deal is surely an admission they expect to lose (or at the very least not win) the election?
    No. It’s to stop Boris changing the date of the election.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    If there's an early election what happens to the boundary commission proposals? Do they die and we start again, or could they be voted on next Parliament?

    Depends on the outcome of the election. If there's a working Conservative majority I see no reason why they couldn't just be waved through. If there's a working Labour majority then they'll presumably start counting the voters again, once they've had the ones they disapprove of put in internment camps or exiled. The revolution is not going to be much fun for the Jews, the bankers or Tories (not that the Stalinist tendency make much distinction between those three groups, of course.)
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    My well considered response is tbat you are as bad as the racists, tarring people not bevause of their views and actions but because of their associations. I presume you consider all 17 million who voted for Brexit to be racists. That is why you are part of the problem not the solution.

    You are entitled to your opinion, however (ahem) interesting that opinion might be. I can't see how I've said anything that logically leads to your comments, and your offensive comments seem based on utter defensiveness - i.e. from a poor position.

    But sheer offensiveness seems to be all you can offer nowadays, sadly.

    As for calling me 'as bad as the racists': you might want to look at whose side you are on, and the moral metal of your fellow travellers.
    (1) you don't say anything that logically leads RT to accuse you of confusing causes and their adherents
    (2) "you might want to look at whose side you are on"

    Pick one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Will Johnson stand from Uxbridge ? If he does, then it would be fun.


    LDs and Greens should let Labour have a clear run in Uxbridge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited September 2019
    Funniest outcome - Tories win a majority but Boris loses his seat. I know that's not technically an impediment to him being made PM, but what a sight it would be.
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Still don't see the point as Labour will be expecting to win the election and can then stop Brexit themselves.

    Passing a motion to stop No Deal is surely an admission they expect to lose (or at the very least not win) the election?
    That's how it will be played, but they can easily defend it on the basis that they are just being careful, particularly around him setting the date. And politically it hurts Boris, so it is worth doing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Still don't see the point as Labour will be expecting to win the election and can then stop Brexit themselves.

    Passing a motion to stop No Deal is surely an admission they expect to lose (or at the very least not win) the election?
    TGOHF said:

    if Hammond feels he is in the right - why didn’t he stand in the leadership election ?

    Because he is wise enough to know that the psychotic Tory membership would never vote for him.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    TGOHF said:
    Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?

    Really?

    My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.

    It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    When it comes to a general election both Labour and Tory parties will be losing votes overall in comparison to 2017. it depends on where they lose those votes as to where they lose seats.

    If Tory / Labour lose votes to Brexit/LibDem in their safer seats then there will be little change from last time, but there will be some, and it would depend on how this churn turns out in what happens.

    If Tory / Labour lose votes equally in their marginals see the last paragraph.

    What I suspect will happen is that both parties will lose votes and seats in Scotland to the SNP. I can see a 50 - 56 seat SNP again depending on how the Lib Dems will do. I wouldn't put it past the Lib Dems from standing down in seats that they are not going to win in Scotland and recommend voting for the SNP in those seats.

    The other thing I suspect will happen is that the LibDems will gain votes in the former Lib Dem seats where Cameron squeezed them so effectively in 2015. This may be aided by an agreement with Greens / PC.

    the interesting set of seats is the Con/Lab marginals where Con could gain in leave areas and Labour in Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    RobD said:
    John Bercow is the Speaker.
    TGOHF said:
    What, even Grieve and Lee? Poor show for them to be upstaged by people who were in Cabinet trying to implement Brexit not 2 months ago.
  • Scott_P said:
    There will be a whole stack of MPs doing the same. Boris might need an act of parliament to suspend FTPA if he wants that election
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Can you even amend that motion?

    There may be some confusion there...

    I understood him to be referring to a non-FTPA motion for an election which was mooted earlier, in which case, yes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    TGOHF said:

    if Hammond feels he is in the right - why didn’t he stand in the leadership election ?

    I feel I would make a better MP as an independent than our current one; but I'm a realist and appreciate I am never going to win.

    Only fight the battles you standa chance of winning is a good rule.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Clearly the remainers have the numbers. So October 14th election I think it is.
  • TGOHF said:

    Any MP voting for an election is risking a no deal - as Boris could win a majority.

    Which is why Bozza and Jezbollah will both be Unhappy Bunnies. Take Back Control means taking over from the Establishment. They are the establishment...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    spudgfsh said:

    When it comes to a general election both Labour and Tory parties will be losing votes overall in comparison to 2017. it depends on where they lose those votes as to where they lose seats.

    If Tory / Labour lose votes to Brexit/LibDem in their safer seats then there will be little change from last time, but there will be some, and it would depend on how this churn turns out in what happens.

    If Tory / Labour lose votes equally in their marginals see the last paragraph.

    What I suspect will happen is that both parties will lose votes and seats in Scotland to the SNP. I can see a 50 - 56 seat SNP again depending on how the Lib Dems will do. I wouldn't put it past the Lib Dems from standing down in seats that they are not going to win in Scotland and recommend voting for the SNP in those seats.

    The other thing I suspect will happen is that the LibDems will gain votes in the former Lib Dem seats where Cameron squeezed them so effectively in 2015. This may be aided by an agreement with Greens / PC.

    the interesting set of seats is the Con/Lab marginals where Con could gain in leave areas and Labour in Remain.

    The LDs will not stand down for the SNP, they are firmly anti Scottish independence under Swinson
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510
    TGOHF said:
    As Carswell can’t even spell his opponents’ names correctly, one wonders if we should trust his forecasts.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    RobD said:
    Yes, it's not neutral, so it's amendable. The proposed amendment should be out of scope and not selected, but Bercow.
  • Drutt said:

    My well considered response is tbat you are as bad as the racists, tarring people not bevause of their views and actions but because of their associations. I presume you consider all 17 million who voted for Brexit to be racists. That is why you are part of the problem not the solution.

    You are entitled to your opinion, however (ahem) interesting that opinion might be. I can't see how I've said anything that logically leads to your comments, and your offensive comments seem based on utter defensiveness - i.e. from a poor position.

    But sheer offensiveness seems to be all you can offer nowadays, sadly.

    As for calling me 'as bad as the racists': you might want to look at whose side you are on, and the moral metal of your fellow travellers.
    (1) you don't say anything that logically leads RT to accuse you of confusing causes and their adherents
    (2) "you might want to look at whose side you are on"

    Pick one.
    I'm on the side of myself first, my family a very close second, my beloved country a third, and humanity a fourth. In this, I'm probably like most of us.

    Your point is?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fantastic news. :)

    So long and don't let the door hit you on the way out. No way BXP can attract Tory/BXP waverers when people like Gauke are being expelled.
    No way the Tory party can retain sane former Tory voters if they have any deal with the BXP
    They can as long as the alternative is Corbyn, even the most anti Brexit ones at most will vote LD not Corbyn Labour and then probably only in LD v Tory marginals not Labour v Tory marginals
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?

    He will be one of the folders.
  • Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:
    Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?

    Really?

    My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.

    It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
    I wonder how Labour MPs in strongly Leave seats will feel about this. Signing up to a clause compelling the PM to do what he's told by the EU will not be well received by a lot of voters in their constuencies.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Jo Swinson has been quiet the last 24 hours. I really hope they are working with other parties on how best to tackle this election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Byronic said:

    TGOHF said:
    Did the Remainers really not stop, for a second, and think: Wait, how will this look?

    Really?

    My guess is that the Letwins and Grieves were so wrapped up in their own parliamentary cleverness, they entirely forgot how they would be perceived.

    It’s utterly disastrous for their cause. And it will be pinned, with vigor, to Labour and Lib Dem lapels. They are the parties that want to kidnap Britain and give it to Brussels, to be slowly ass-fucked.
    READ THE NEXT PARAGRAPH OF THE BILL!!!

    https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168560598650621953?s=20
  • Pulpstar said:

    Clearly the remainers have the numbers. So October 14th election I think it is.

    How does that get the 2/3rds votes?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Jo Swinson has been quiet the last 24 hours. I really hope they are working with other parties on how best to tackle this election.

    +1 Let's hope so.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,510

    Could Rory take Penrith and the Border as an independent?

    Rory ex-Tory from Balamory
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    ‪Cummings is doing all he can to revive the 2017 Tory electoral coalition, but in doing so is also giving Labour the best possible chance of reviving its one. And this time with added LibDem and SNP interest in seats Labour can’t win. It’s a huge gamble.‬

    Well true but that is the only way the Tories can win, reviving May's post extension coalition which saw the Tories get just 9% in the European elections and get beaten by the Brexit Party, the LDs and Labour and come third in the Peterborough by election was a disaster.

    The LDs are also polling higher than in 2017 and Labour is polling lower
    Euro elections are irrelevant. If they were relevant Farage won in 2015.
    Even opinion polls had the Tories third until Boris looked like succeeding May
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    He will be one of the folders.

    What odds are you offering?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Pulpstar said:

    Clearly the remainers have the numbers. So October 14th election I think it is.

    How does that get the 2/3rds votes?
    Con + Lab + LD + SNP - (a few at risk of deselection and other dissenters) = well over 2/3rds
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    Beautiful typo though 😂😂😂
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    RobD said:
    FTPA lays down the exact words of the motion which must be passed, so it can't be validly amended. (FTPA 2 (2) ).

    In all cases the PM recommends (fixes) the date of the GE which HM appoints. (FTPA 2(7) ).

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    I suppose it's not a good time to ask about Sheffield Hallam?

    :wink:
This discussion has been closed.