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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson channels both Theresa May and Gordon Brown

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  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited September 2019
    Deleted. Not worth it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited September 2019
    Remarkable to see the Right outraged about the HofL. Keep it up, comrades.
    Course, if it were stuffed with Vote Leave donors, then that would be right and proper.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Both Ruth Davison and Mark Francois looked into Johnson's eyes and heard exactly the opposite things. Or, did they hear correctly, only Johnson told each what they wanted to hear.
  • If MPs decide they don't want to respect the referendum result, and they don't want to face the voters at an election, the Boris should say he will either advise Her Majesty to withhold Royal Assent for the rebels bill or appoint hundreds of Lords to block it.

    If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour will vote against a GE - 2 MPs confirm on Newsnight.

    They simply don’t trust the public.

    Corbyn thinks different and as long as he and his camp does Boris gets his election
    If the non-Corbynites ignore him , that would not follow.
    It does given the Tories plus Corbynites plus the LDs and SNP (for a pre October 31st election) gives a 2/3 majority for a general election
    There could well be 20 - 30 Tories who will abstain plus ChangeUK and assorted Independents.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    dixiedean said:

    Remarkable to see the Right outraged about the HofL. Keep it up, comrades.
    Course, if it were stuffed with Vote Leave donors, then that would be right and proper.

    I've always said HoL should be disbanded and we should start again... Even when I was voting Lib-Dem in the 2005 general election. ;)
  • If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.

    Johnson is the one who, in the space of days, has said he's shutting down parliament, and that he doesn't want an election. Unless you knew about the context it would make him look like a would-be dictator.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Andrew said:

    If Corbyn does backtrack on an election, Johnson is going to be in one ugly position wrt the extension. Legally he'll be obliged to request, and seemingly accept.

    Check mate


    Or should that be Chec. Spy. Mate!!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    If MPs decide they don't want to respect the referendum result, and they don't want to face the voters at an election, the Boris should say he will either advise Her Majesty to withhold Royal Assent for the rebels bill or appoint hundreds of Lords to block it.

    If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.

    Boris told us that the people do not want an election and therefore we must respect their wishes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour will vote against a GE - 2 MPs confirm on Newsnight.

    They simply don’t trust the public.

    Corbyn thinks different and as long as he and his camp does Boris gets his election
    If the non-Corbynites ignore him , that would not follow.
    It does given the Tories plus Corbynites plus the LDs and SNP (for a pre October 31st election) gives a 2/3 majority for a general election
    There could well be 20 - 30 Tories who will abstain plus ChangeUK and assorted Independents.
    Is ChangeUK still a thing?

    I thought it was just Anna Soubry and the Commons drinks cabinet? :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    If MPs decide they don't want to respect the referendum result, and they don't want to face the voters at an election, the Boris should say he will either advise Her Majesty to withhold Royal Assent for the rebels bill or appoint hundreds of Lords to block it.

    If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.

    Boris told us that the people do not want an election and therefore we must respect their wishes.
    He's right, but it's more popular than not holding one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?
  • dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    Bradd Pitt is the same age as Farage...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    So what, he was commenting that Boris was cheered and Corbyn was booed, even if he is a Brexit Party supporter himself and not a Tory it shows even in the North the Tories can win in working class Leave areas to deliver Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    HYUFD said:
    I remember when they last did vox pops in Northern working men's clubs...lots of flat cap northerners said they thought Mrs May was a fine leader and despite having voted Labour all their life they were going with her at the GE rather than that Commie Corbyn.
    They didn't have people cheering May and booing Corbyn anything like this in the North East for goodness sake, Labour heartland
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    Bradd Pitt is the same age as Farage...
    Strewth! Just gone to Wiki to check my assertion...He shares my birthday! Used to be just the Bush twins and Pinochet amongst the slim pickings of famous people therein. A pattern is emerging....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour will vote against a GE - 2 MPs confirm on Newsnight.

    They simply don’t trust the public.

    Corbyn thinks different and as long as he and his camp does Boris gets his election
    If the non-Corbynites ignore him , that would not follow.
    It does given the Tories plus Corbynites plus the LDs and SNP (for a pre October 31st election) gives a 2/3 majority for a general election
    There could well be 20 - 30 Tories who will abstain plus ChangeUK and assorted Independents.
    So what, still nowhere near more than 1/3 of the Commons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.

    Johnson is the one who, in the space of days, has said he's shutting down parliament, and that he doesn't want an election. Unless you knew about the context it would make him look like a would-be dictator.
    Diehard Remainers clearly have contempt for democracy by refusing to respect the Leave vote so who cares, as far as I am concerned anything goes now to deliver the will of the people
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    So what, he was commenting that Boris was cheered and Corbyn was booed, even if he is a Brexit Party supporter himself and not a Tory it shows even in the North the Tories can win in working class Leave areas to deliver Brexit
    What makes you think he was in a Leave area?
  • HYUFD said:

    If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.

    Johnson is the one who, in the space of days, has said he's shutting down parliament, and that he doesn't want an election. Unless you knew about the context it would make him look like a would-be dictator.
    Diehard Remainers clearly have contempt for democracy by refusing to respect the Leave vote so who cares, as far as I am concerned anything goes now to deliver the will of the people
    You're rolling the pitch for Farage. If anything goes, why shouldn't people vote Farage instead of Boris who seems desperately to want a deal?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    Bradd Pitt is the same age as Farage...
    Niger Farage and Keanu Reeves are 55 years old. Tom Cruise is 57 years old. Here is a clip of Tom Cruise running

    https://youtu.be/Sjn3ELLcy2U?t=60
  • viewcode said:

    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    Bradd Pitt is the same age as Farage...
    Niger Farage and Keanu Reeves are 55 years old. Tom Cruise is 57 years old. Here is a clip of Tom Cruise running

    youtu.be/Sjn3ELLcy2U?t=60
    Amazing what they can do with special effects these days ;-)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    Bradd Pitt is the same age as Farage...
    Niger Farage and Keanu Reeves are 55 years old. Tom Cruise is 57 years old. Here is a clip of Tom Cruise running

    youtu.be/Sjn3ELLcy2U?t=60
    Amazing what they can do with special effects these days ;-)
    The bit where he breaks his ankle is at 1:37
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    Is this another possible route to an election for Boris even if Frit Labour does go have to be dragged kicking and screaming to face the electorate?

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1168093918564618240

    I am sure the Tory rebels will vote for that!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    If Remainers want to overturn democracy let them do that at the ballot box.

    Johnson is the one who, in the space of days, has said he's shutting down parliament, and that he doesn't want an election. Unless you knew about the context it would make him look like a would-be dictator.
    Diehard Remainers clearly have contempt for democracy by refusing to respect the Leave vote so who cares, as far as I am concerned anything goes now to deliver the will of the people
    You're rolling the pitch for Farage. If anything goes, why shouldn't people vote Farage instead of Boris who seems desperately to want a deal?
    As voters want to try for a Deal first minus the backstop if not then yes No Deal it will be, of course Corbyn is currently losing more Remainers to the LDs by refusing to commit to campaign for Remain in all circumstances than Boris is losing to the Brexit Party on a Deal or No Deal ticket and under FPTP the only battle that really matters is the Boris v Corbyn one
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    I'm not sure what that has got to do with anything?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    So what, he was commenting that Boris was cheered and Corbyn was booed, even if he is a Brexit Party supporter himself and not a Tory it shows even in the North the Tories can win in working class Leave areas to deliver Brexit
    What makes you think he was in a Leave area?
    As every area of the North East voted Leave bar Newcastle and a Remain area was hardly going to cheer Boris (though it might still cheer Corbyn)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what, he was commenting that Boris was cheered and Corbyn was booed, even if he is a Brexit Party supporter himself and not a Tory it shows even in the North the Tories can win in working class Leave areas to deliver Brexit
    What makes you think he was in a Leave area?
    As every area of the North East voted Leave bar Newcastle and a Remain area was hardly going to cheer Boris
    There’s plenty of Leave voters in Newcastle. Just like there is plenty of Remain voters in Sunderland.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    I'm not sure what that has got to do with anything?
    Not much. I suppose. Maybe I am revealing more about my own insecurities about aging...
  • HYUFD said:

    ....under FPTP the only battle that really matters is the Boris v Corbyn one

    I can see a great triumph for Boris in the upcoming election:

    Lib Dems: 28%
    Brexit Party: 23%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 19%
    SNP: 4%
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    HYUFD said:

    ....under FPTP the only battle that really matters is the Boris v Corbyn one

    I can see a great triumph for Boris in the upcoming election:

    Lib Dems: 28%
    Brexit Party: 23%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 19%
    SNP: 4%
    Just make sure you've Baxtered that to within an inch of its life!
  • ab195 said:

    ‪If you are an MP opposed to a No Deal Brexit you’d be certifiably insane to vote to give Boris Johnson the ability to choose - and change - the date of an election.‬

    But if the date can be fixed, I don’t get why you then wouldn’t agree to it. If something emerges Tuesday/Wednesday that does that then surely it’s a goer? Otherwise I’m not sure what you’d be planning to do as an MP against no deal. The legislation will pass, but then what?
    It's not just a matter of which route can pass through the House though. The route constrains the dates.

    The 2/3rds route would allow for an election around mid October as it would be triggered immediately, and thus for an extension to be asked for before 31st October if the Remainer parties won and cobbled together a government.

    The VONC route: The VONC would be followed by a 14 day period that will be extended to allow for any prorogation falling within the 14 days. So the 14 day period won't end until well into October as things stand, then the GE would be called and polling day would have to be well into November. If prorogation stands, the VONC route can only lead to an extension being requested before 31st October if an alternative government can be formed to ask for it in the 14 days, not if it forces a GE.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dixiedean said:

    Apparently Dom Cummings is 47. He doesn't look great on it. Or maybe that is unkind?

    If anything he looked younger than his age until about 5 years ago.
  • I thought more democracy could only be a good thing?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I thought more democracy could only be a good thing?

    Tell that to Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    I thought more democracy could only be a good thing?

    Tell that to Boris.
    Tell that to diehard Remainers who still refuse the accept the Leave vote
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    I thought more democracy could only be a good thing?

    Pause.

    So you'd be OK with a second referendum then?

    Ah, my coat... :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    HYUFD said:

    ....under FPTP the only battle that really matters is the Boris v Corbyn one

    I can see a great triumph for Boris in the upcoming election:

    Lib Dems: 28%
    Brexit Party: 23%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 19%
    SNP: 4%
    Brexit Party 215 LDs 213 on those numbers but of course it is precisely because Boris replaced May and will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal the Tories are back almost 20% ahead of the Brexit Party on current polls while Labour are barely ahead of the LDs
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    I thought more democracy could only be a good thing?

    Tell that to Boris.
    Tell that to diehard Remainers who still refuse the accept the Leave vote
    Boring.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited September 2019
    Just listening to the clip, I think what should have been a good strategy has been destroyed by the prorogation move.

    The component parts all work in isolation. for example spending more on crime and the NHS must of polled well, getting brexit done and moving on to other things will be attractive to floating voters, the idea of negotiating deal with the threat of No Deal and looking really serious about No Deal sounds good if you believe in it. So go along with that, wait until parliament stop you, then ask Corbyn to agree an election, which he'll have a hard time turning down. Have the election, win a majority and lots more options open up.

    But then he does the prorogation, justified by an enormous, ridiculously transparent lie that it's being done to allow the government to pass stuff on crime and the NHS. If you're making grand constitutional maneuvers over Brexit, that makes the non-Brexit stuff sound ludicrous. And you can't make a pitch to MPs to trust you that your strategy to get a deal will work if they stick with it if you're simultaneously abusing your power to cut them out, and telling a huge honking lie about why you're doing it. Finally, making himself look untrustworthy gives Corbyn the perfect excuse to play the election request whatever way he wants to.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    What is Jezza's bar to stay as leader after the election? Does he stand aside if Boris gets his working majority (and a 4-5 year term)?

    What's the next Labour leader market looking like right now?
  • moonshine said:

    What is Jezza's bar to stay as leader after the election? Does he stand aside if Boris gets his working majority (and a 4-5 year term)?

    What's the next Labour leader market looking like right now?

    I think if Boris got a working majority but Labour gained seats he could hang on, but that's quite an unlikely outcome, since we also generally expect LD and SNP to go forwards.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited September 2019
    I guess the best outcome for Labour is if LD gain 30 seats from Con and Con gain 30 seats from Lab, and nothing else changes.

    That should be enough to jettison Corbyn and substitute somebody rated by more than 20% of the voters, but it will still leave an unstable government that they can bring down in a couple of years after the new guy wins some by-elections.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:

    What is Jezza's bar to stay as leader after the election? Does he stand aside if Boris gets his working majority (and a 4-5 year term)?

    What's the next Labour leader market looking like right now?

    I think if Boris got a working majority but Labour gained seats he could hang on, but that's quite an unlikely outcome, since we also generally expect LD and SNP to go forwards.
    I don't watch telly that often but every time I see him he looks like he fancies a lie in. On the assumption that the Lib Dems surge is real, the Labour membership would replace Corbyn with a like minded soul wouldn't they?

    So there's two futures where they a) pick someone younger that re-energises and repolarises the vote in their favour (against a backdrop of a global recession and resurgent AOC style politics in the US). Or else they pick someone who's a worse media performer / less attractive to Millennials and Labour falls back to third at the next election but one.

    Not very obvious to me that they have an outstanding candidate to replace him. Perhaps he'll have to wait for that Sunday lie in a while longer.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2019
    ***** Betting Post *****

    If the Labour hierarchy really is being urged by former leader Tony Blair and others against "falling into the trap" of agreeing to a GE next month and possibly for some time thereafter until the threat of a no-deal brexit has finally been put to bed, then perhaps there is real value in Betfair Exchange's odds of 6.6, equivalent to 5.3/1 net in old money, against a General Election taking place in 2020, as opposed to what is left of 2019.
    These odds compare very favourably with those of 3/1 or 7/2 being the best on offer from the conventional bookies.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Democracy is about persuasion rather than obliteration and there are rules underpinning political conflict that don’t apply in military combat. The prime minister seems to have forgotten that, far from being the nation’s commander-in-chief, he is only “first among equals” in the cabinet and depends for his power on the House of Commons. The scorched-earth approach being pursued by No 10 will make it almost impossible to unite the Tory party, let alone the country, when the skirmishes are over.

    Mr Johnson has adopted the Donald Trump tactic of goading his opponents in an attempt to energise his supporters but he has overplayed his hand.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnsons-luck-might-be-about-to-run-out-xwg9plxv3
This discussion has been closed.