Is there anyone outside of the media that think it was anything but murder? He was shut up by people who dont want their involvement in the sex trafficking of children exposed
Lmao Trump is trolling Corbyn on Twitter. Remainers have a problem, defying HMQ might lead to unintended consequences
I think involving her at all at this time is unwise but I suspect Jo knows full well she won't get a meeting though I believe former Prime Ministers have always been able to seek an audience with HMQ if desired.
Imagine Major, Blair, Cameron, Brown and May all going to see HMQ together and urging the prorogation be halted.
She will not be moved on this imo, now the decision is taken. Johnson of course would use such interventions as evidence of the establishment trying to subvert democracy and call for an election to crush the saboteurs
How do you know that the Queen has taken the decision?
Lmao Trump is trolling Corbyn on Twitter. Remainers have a problem, defying HMQ might lead to unintended consequences
I think involving her at all at this time is unwise but I suspect Jo knows full well she won't get a meeting though I believe former Prime Ministers have always been able to seek an audience with HMQ if desired.
Imagine Major, Blair, Cameron, Brown and May all going to see HMQ together and urging the prorogation be halted.
She will not be moved on this imo, now the decision is taken. Johnson of course would use such interventions as evidence of the establishment trying to subvert democracy and call for an election to crush the saboteurs
How do you know that the Queen has taken the decision?
Lmao Trump is trolling Corbyn on Twitter. Remainers have a problem, defying HMQ might lead to unintended consequences
I think involving her at all at this time is unwise but I suspect Jo knows full well she won't get a meeting though I believe former Prime Ministers have always been able to seek an audience with HMQ if desired.
Imagine Major, Blair, Cameron, Brown and May all going to see HMQ together and urging the prorogation be halted.
She will not be moved on this imo, now the decision is taken. Johnson of course would use such interventions as evidence of the establishment trying to subvert democracy and call for an election to crush the saboteurs
How do you know that the Queen has taken the decision?
The order papers are on the Privy council website....
Lmao Trump is trolling Corbyn on Twitter. Remainers have a problem, defying HMQ might lead to unintended consequences
I think involving her at all at this time is unwise but I suspect Jo knows full well she won't get a meeting though I believe former Prime Ministers have always been able to seek an audience with HMQ if desired.
Imagine Major, Blair, Cameron, Brown and May all going to see HMQ together and urging the prorogation be halted.
She will not be moved on this imo, now the decision is taken. Johnson of course would use such interventions as evidence of the establishment trying to subvert democracy and call for an election to crush the saboteurs
How do you know that the Queen has taken the decision?
Is there anyone outside of the media that think it was anything but murder? He was shut up by people who dont want their involvement in the sex trafficking of children exposed
Not sure there will be many inside the media either. They just can't say so for obvious reasons.
Is there anyone outside of the media that think it was anything but murder? He was shut up by people who dont want their involvement in the sex trafficking of children exposed
Plenty of people, apparently, including a majority of Joe Biden supporters. See:
Not if he is replaced by a GONU, or the FTPA is subsequently amended
I don’t think that’s true if he just sits in number 10, promising to call a vote. After Brexit.
The term VOC in government means in any prospective government not the government. He can’t sit it out for 14 days if someone else demonstrates the have confidence.
But there is an established convention for HM picking the winner of the election.
The Prime Minister’s appointment does not expire on an election. The two cases are identical.
In other words, your hopeful Leave idea is hogwash.
The appointmemt is not expired but the conventions are obviously different immediately after an election compared to the middle of a term.
And it is certainly far from hopeful. The best approach is an extension and a deal. You seem unable to differentiate between what someone thinks is the situation to what they want as the situation.
The schema of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it clear what is expected to happen in the 14 day period (the name of the Act is a big clue). A vote of no confidence is supposed to be an opportunity for Parliament to change governments, not a different way for the Prime Minister to engineer an early election - a specific and more demanding route is set out for that. Any attempt by the Prime Minister to subvert that, particularly for the collateral purpose of imposing a policy on the country that he could not secure through Parliamentary vote, would be reviewable by the courts.
You are happy to conjure up extra-statutory convention as something legally enforceable when you so wish, yet disregard Parliament's intent when it suits you. You make ridiculous argument after ridiculous argument in favour of Leave positions, while pretending to be a Remain supporters, apparently in the belief that will give your dumb arguments more weight. Why?
I know what the FTPA was supposed to do but it has been incredibly badly written and did not think through potential scenarios enough to account for them. I don't want this to be the case as I want a deal to keep us close to the EU and reentry in short order. I just think it is.
I know you are a culture warrior that sees everything as a Manichean struggle between the forces of light and the forces of darkness. But you need to accept there are people who agree with you on some things to do with Brexit and not on others. This "if you're not with us you are against us" mindset is so destructive to this country.
Is there anyone outside of the media that think it was anything but murder? He was shut up by people who dont want their involvement in the sex trafficking of children exposed
Plenty of people, apparently, including a majority of Joe Biden supporters. See:
Lol, supporters of a perv think perv wasn't killed by other pervs to cover their pervery. Colour me shocked. I think in general, to Express myself less hyperbolically, there is significant doubt in the suicide narrative.
Anecdote alert. You may believe this or not and if you don't believe it, I will hold nothing against you as I cannot substantiate this nor will I provide more details for obvious reasons. Anyway, here goes.
I was chatting with an IT consultant friend in the UK yesterday. He's just landed a contract with a government department to procure and implement an IT system that will be vital for the UK outside the EU. The deadline for implementation is December 2020, i.e. the end of the transition period specified in May's WDA.
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table. (BTW, if I can find this out, then so can the EU, or wtf do the DGSE and BND do with all their Euros.) Also, even without the above, there is a lot of legislation that would need to be passed to get the laws in line for even a no-deal Brexit, and a prorogued Parliament can't pass any of it.
Here's what I think are the most likely outcomes:
1) Boris persuades Macron and Merkel to "drop" the backstop replacing it with something else. In fact, once all the froth and dribble has been removed, it will turn out to be the same WDA with the same backstop in practice as May's all along, but even if the ERG spot this, enough MPs will vote it through anyway. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 70%.
2) The EU won't blink at all, Boris submits May's WDA as is to Parliament and it passes - just. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 50%
(Both of above will probably require short A50 extension, to the end of year most likely, to get the necessary implementation legislation through Parliament.)
3) No WDA is passed by the last week of October. Boris reluctantly concedes to reality and revokes A50 as he has no other choice. However, most likely he immediately re-submits an A50 notification to reset the clock for another two years. Most likely a GE and/or second referendum follows. Likelihood of A50 revocation in these circumstances: 100%.
Is there anyone outside of the media that think it was anything but murder? He was shut up by people who dont want their involvement in the sex trafficking of children exposed
Not sure there will be many inside the media either. They just can't say so for obvious reasons.
Spending time on his island/on his plane/etc amongst those reasons for some.
Shuttering Parliament for a month, just before the Brexit deadline, goes some way towards that, yes.
The net loss is four days. To really limit Parliament wouldn’t he have done it after the conference season and not during? It’s almost as if he selected the date to minimise the loss of sitting days.
Is there anyone outside of the media that think it was anything but murder? He was shut up by people who dont want their involvement in the sex trafficking of children exposed
Not sure there will be many inside the media either. They just can't say so for obvious reasons.
Spending time on his island/on his plane/etc amongst those reasons for some.
Well. I bow to no one in my contempt for journalism as a profession.
Loosing four days of parliamentary time is a coup?
For the purpose of denying the will of Parliament it is most certainly a coup.
How does it deny the will of Parliament? There are plenty of business days left between now and 31st October.
Its the longest prorogation since 1945... at a time when Parliament specifically demanded not to face a long suspension. So I don't think Johnson supporters should try to act so cute... BoJo has put a bomb under the constitution....
The schema of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it clear what is expected to happen in the 14 day period (the name of the Act is a big clue). A vote of no confidence is supposed to be an opportunity for Parliament to change governments, not a different way for the Prime Minister to engineer an early election - a specific and more demanding route is set out for that. Any attempt by the Prime Minister to subvert that, particularly for the collateral purpose of imposing a policy on the country that he could not secure through Parliamentary vote, would be reviewable by the courts.
You are happy to conjure up extra-statutory convention as something legally enforceable when you so wish, yet disregard Parliament's intent when it suits you. You make ridiculous argument after ridiculous argument in favour of Leave positions, while pretending to be a Remain supporters, apparently in the belief that will give your dumb arguments more weight. Why?
I know what the FTPA was supposed to do but it has been incredibly badly written and did not think through potential scenarios enough to account for them. I don't want this to be the case as I want a deal to keep us close to the EU and reentry in short order. I just think it is.
I know you are a culture warrior that sees everything as a Manichean struggle between the forces of light and the forces of darkness. But you need to accept there are people who agree with you on some things to do with Brexit and not on others. This "if you're not with us you are against us" mindset is so destructive to this country.
Drop the act. At every stage you denigrate and attack those who voted Remain and you clutch to the most far-fetched arguments on behalf of Leave.
Courts interpret legislation purposively. The purpose of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is clear, as is its structure. There's nothing much wrong with its drafting. The courts will do the necessary work to give effect to it if the Prime Minister decides to go further in trying to trash the constitution.
I've explained repeatedly why you're wrong on this point. You continue to mumble obvious nonsense. I ask again: why?
The unelected Queen has confirmed that she is mandateless Boris Johnson’s parrot.
We need to take back control from our unelected rulers.
I think we will see a considerable rise in support for a Republic... and the heir apparent is not that popular... So all joking aside, this seems yet another piece of collateral damage from the Brexit shit show: the Monarchy.
Loosing four days of parliamentary time is a coup?
For the purpose of denying the will of Parliament it is most certainly a coup.
How does it deny the will of Parliament? There are plenty of business days left between now and 31st October.
Its the longest prorogation since 1945... at a time when Parliament specifically demanded not to face a long suspension. So I don't think Johnson supporters should try to act so cute... BoJo has put a bomb under the constitution....
This will end very badly indeed.
Parliament wasn’t going to be sitting for four weeks of that period anyway, much like how it wasn’t sitting for the previous six weeks. The net loss is small, and Parliament still has time to act
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table.
It's not just total chaos though, is it? It's total chaos, *which you can blame on foreigners*. And most of the Tory voters only need their pensions to get through plus minimal supermarket supplies and essential medicines, they don't care if some young person in an office somewhere can't do some kind of business thing.
I wouldn't be surprised if they're bluffing but I don't see how anyone can be sure.
A lot of confected outrage from Remainers here. Their main complaint seems to be that Boris is subverting British democracy, and thereby preventing Remainers from subverting British democracy.
Since when is seeking to leave with a deal - an "orderly withdrawal" in the words of the manifesto on which the Tories got elected 2 years ago - subverting democracy?
Lmao Trump is trolling Corbyn on Twitter. Remainers have a problem, defying HMQ might lead to unintended consequences
I think involving her at all at this time is unwise but I suspect Jo knows full well she won't get a meeting though I believe former Prime Ministers have always been able to seek an audience with HMQ if desired.
Imagine Major, Blair, Cameron, Brown and May all going to see HMQ together and urging the prorogation be halted.
She will not be moved on this imo, now the decision is taken. Johnson of course would use such interventions as evidence of the establishment trying to subvert democracy and call for an election to crush the saboteurs
How do you know that the Queen has taken the decision?
Anecdote alert. You may believe this or not and if you don't believe it, I will hold nothing against you as I cannot substantiate this nor will I provide more details for obvious reasons. Anyway, here goes.
I was chatting with an IT consultant friend in the UK yesterday. He's just landed a contract with a government department to procure and implement an IT system that will be vital for the UK outside the EU. The deadline for implementation is December 2020, i.e. the end of the transition period specified in May's WDA.
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table. (BTW, if I can find this out, then so can the EU, or wtf do the DGSE and BND do with all their Euros.) Also, even without the above, there is a lot of legislation that would need to be passed to get the laws in line for even a no-deal Brexit, and a prorogued Parliament can't pass any of it.
Here's what I think are the most likely outcomes:
1) Boris persuades Macron and Merkel to "drop" the backstop replacing it with something else. In fact, once all the froth and dribble has been removed, it will turn out to be the same WDA with the same backstop in practice as May's all along, but even if the ERG spot this, enough MPs will vote it through anyway. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 70%.
2) The EU won't blink at all, Boris submits May's WDA as is to Parliament and it passes - just. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 50%
(Both of above will probably require short A50 extension, to the end of year most likely, to get the necessary implementation legislation through Parliament.)
3) No WDA is passed by the last week of October. Boris reluctantly concedes to reality and revokes A50 as he has no other choice. However, most likely he immediately re-submits an A50 notification to reset the clock for another two years. Most likely a GE and/or second referendum follows. Likelihood of A50 revocation in these circumstances: 100%.
You continue to have a very high expectation of deals passing the House. The ERG have been saying volubly that they don't support even a backstop less WA. The PM is alienating opposition parties even quicker than May did. The history of WA votes is that they fall by way more than anyone expects. The government want a VONC. Any fool can see that. They want a GE, but don't want to be seen calling it. If they don't get one, what happens? Your anecdote adds to the circumstantial evidence.
But not so outrageous as having your 6 week holiday cut short.
Rank hypocrisy.
Eh, we had a letter recently asking for Parliament to be recalled before the end of the summer recess, that Leavers dismissed as posturing. Now the failure to recall Parliament is taken as proof of hypocrisy.
What the remain lobby doesn't seem to realise is that Johnson/Cummings have also laid a trap for them. Bring the government down and it initiates a GE in which Johnson stands on an anti-Parliament ticket....and wins.
I think it;s a master-stroke...
Only if he wins which is far from guaranteed. Clearly he thinks it worth the risk though.
I do get the sense this is, as Shakespeare would term it, !much ado about nothing". The key timelines will be early September and then after mid October.
Those opposed to a No Deal Brexit have their opportunities - early next month or after Conference season. I imagine the Queen's Speech will essentially be the Conservative Manifesto for the next election and will stench of re-hashed Thatcherism. It really will be a case of firing up the Quattro as Boris takes us proudly forward to the 1980s with his unoriginal tosh.
The problem is Corbyn will march us forward to the 1970s with his return of union power and Stare control.
Interesting piece by Robert Saunders in New Statesman-
'Parliamentary government is often frustrating. It brings together a cacophonous array of competing voices, with as many different opinions as there are citizens. It can be ponderous, verbose and slow to reach agreement. Yet such is the nature of a democratic society. In a complex, pluralistic state, the “will of the people” is not a single intelligence, issuing instructions to parliament; it is a negotiation between different voices and interests, who come together in our democratic institutions to “parley”.
Johnson is not the first to find this irksome. In the 1930s, as leader of the British Union of Fascists, Oswald Mosley struck out against “the false liberty of a few old men to talk for ever in the present parliamentary system”. He dreamed of a “government armed by the people with complete power of action”; dependent not on “the intrigues and manoeuvres of conflicting parties, but on the will of the nation directly expressed”. Britain rejected that road in the 1930s. It should do so again today.'
Anecdote alert. You may believe this or not and if you don't believe it, I will hold nothing against you as I cannot substantiate this nor will I provide more details for obvious reasons. Anyway, here goes.
I was chatting with an IT consultant friend in the UK yesterday. He's just landed a contract with a government department to procure and implement an IT system that will be vital for the UK outside the EU. The deadline for implementation is December 2020, i.e. the end of the transition period specified in May's WDA.
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table. (BTW, if I can find this out, then so can the EU, or wtf do the DGSE and BND do with all their Euros.) Also, even without the above, there is a lot of legislation that would need to be passed to get the laws in line for even a no-deal Brexit, and a prorogued Parliament can't pass any of it.
Here's what I think are the most likely outcomes:
1) Boris persuades Macron and Merkel to "drop" the backstop replacing it with something else. In fact, once all the froth and dribble has been removed, it will turn out to be the same WDA with the same backstop in practice as May's all along, but even if the ERG spot this, enough MPs will vote it through anyway. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 70%.
2) The EU won't blink at all, Boris submits May's WDA as is to Parliament and it passes - just. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 50%
(Both of above will probably require short A50 extension, to the end of year most likely, to get the necessary implementation legislation through Parliament.)
3) No WDA is passed by the last week of October. Boris reluctantly concedes to reality and revokes A50 as he has no other choice. However, most likely he immediately re-submits an A50 notification to reset the clock for another two years. Most likely a GE and/or second referendum follows. Likelihood of A50 revocation in these circumstances: 100%.
The deadline won't have changed on the project as December 2020 is stupidly short anyway and changing a date means restarting the entire process.
Just a thought: might the Palace have had some involvement in the shape of the prorogation? You can easily imagine that it would prefer MPs to have the opportunity to have a say on the idea beforehand and to take action afterwards.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that this was a compromise between Number 10 and Buckingham Palace.
Anecdote alert. You may believe this or not and if you don't believe it, I will hold nothing against you as I cannot substantiate this nor will I provide more details for obvious reasons. Anyway, here goes.
I was chatting with an IT consultant friend in the UK yesterday. He's just landed a contract with a government department to procure and implement an IT system that will be vital for the UK outside the EU. The deadline for implementation is December 2020, i.e. the end of the transition period specified in May's WDA.
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table. (BTW, if I can find this out, then so can the EU, or wtf do the DGSE and BND do with all their Euros.) Also, even without the above, there is a lot of legislation that would need to be passed to get the laws in line for even a no-deal Brexit, and a prorogued Parliament can't pass any of it.
Here's what I think are the most likely outcomes:
1) Boris persuades Macron and Merkel to "drop" the backstop replacing it with something else. In fact, once all the froth and dribble has been removed, it will turn out to be the same WDA with the same backstop in practice as May's all along, but even if the ERG spot this, enough MPs will vote it through anyway. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 70%.
2) The EU won't blink at all, Boris submits May's WDA as is to Parliament and it passes - just. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 50%
(Both of above will probably require short A50 extension, to the end of year most likely, to get the necessary implementation legislation through Parliament.)
3) No WDA is passed by the last week of October. Boris reluctantly concedes to reality and revokes A50 as he has no other choice. However, most likely he immediately re-submits an A50 notification to reset the clock for another two years. Most likely a GE and/or second referendum follows. Likelihood of A50 revocation in these circumstances: 100%.
The deadline won't have changed on the project as December 2020 is stupidly short anyway and changing a date means restarting the entire process.
You don’t think the EU would accept a change in the end of the transition without renegotiating the entire thing? I would have thought it would be a very quick change, agreed in days.
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table.
It's not just total chaos though, is it? It's total chaos, *which you can blame on foreigners*. And most of the Tory voters only need their pensions to get through plus minimal supermarket supplies and essential medicines, they don't care if some young person in an office somewhere can't do some kind of business thing.
I wouldn't be surprised if they're bluffing but I don't see how anyone can be sure.
Brussels especially.
Maybe they'll live with a Brexit recession.
Maybe they won't.
Seems to me all the prorogation does is get the executive to the point where serious table banging can happen during the October EU summit - without the legislature fucking it up.
After all, the EU's side of the table will be H-U-G-E if we are to have all the Remainer MPs sat round it too.
The unelected Queen has confirmed that she is mandateless Boris Johnson’s parrot.
We need to take back control from our unelected rulers.
This is why the Queen will do whatever she can to stay above this very dangerous political fray.
Sadly Boris has introduced the monarchy into this mess. I don't see a problem while the Queen is alive but I suspect republican tendencies are going to increase as Charles takes over.
The EU chap is probably spot on. This makes No Deal or Theresa's WA the only show in town. I doubt Boris has the stomach for the former, so we'll get the latter with his worshippers spinning that it's significantly different.
Just a thought: might the Palace have had some involvement in the shape of the prorogation? You can easily imagine that it would prefer MPs to have the opportunity to have a say on the idea beforehand and to take action afterwards.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that this was a compromise between Number 10 and Buckingham Palace.
Even if it was (and remember it seems legal advice was that other approaches wouldn't stand scrutiny) it has brought the Monarchy into the equation.
And that will probably do it no favours in the medium term.
The schema of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it clear what is expected to happen in the 14 day period (the name of the Act is a big clue). A vote of no confidence is supposed to be an opportunity for Parliament to change governments, not a different way for the Prime Minister to engineer an early election - a specific and more demanding route is set out for that. Any attempt by the Prime Minister to subvert that, particularly for the collateral purpose of imposing a policy on the country that he could not secure through Parliamentary vote, would be reviewable by the courts.
You are happy to conjure up extra-statutory convention as something legally enforceable when you so wish, yet disregard Parliament's intent when it suits you. You make ridiculous argument after ridiculous argument in favour of Leave positions, while pretending to be a Remain supporters, apparently in the belief that will give your dumb arguments more weight. Why?
I know what the FTPA was supposed to do but it has been incredibly badly written and did not think through potential scenarios enough to account for them. I don't want this to be the case as I want a deal to keep us close to the EU and reentry in short order. I just think it is.
I know you are a culture warrior that sees everything as a Manichean struggle between the forces of light and the forces of darkness. But you need to accept there are people who agree with you on some things to do with Brexit and not on others. This "if you're not with us you are against us" mindset is so destructive to this country.
Drop the act. At every stage you denigrate and attack those who voted Remain and you clutch to the most far-fetched arguments on behalf of Leave.
Courts interpret legislation purposively. The purpose of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is clear, as is its structure. There's nothing much wrong with its drafting. The courts will do the necessary work to give effect to it if the Prime Minister decides to go further in trying to trash the constitution.
I've explained repeatedly why you're wrong on this point. You continue to mumble obvious nonsense. I ask again: why?
I have criticised the hardliners on both sides plenty of times. You can only see that because you are in such a culture struggle you are blinded to it. You also see literally any argument from the other side as "the most far-fetched" for the same reasons.
I have read your arguments and have found some of them of good but haven't been fully persuaded. It is possible I have just missed some as I am not on as much as you. For example, I had not seen your election point until this morning. If you don't like the perspectives made by other people, just move on and ignore them. It is really not hard. You don't have to be such a dick about things.
I oppose no deal but I don’t really see why this is such an outrage. Parliament hasn’t been sitting for several weeks during the holidays. They’re about to have another 4 week holiday during the conference season anyway. Parliament isn’t being prorogued across October 31st, in fact notreally very close to it. If Parliament doesn’t like what is happening they have time both before and after prorogation to call a VoNC in the Government. If anything, the break from Parliament going around and around in circles not agreeing anything might actually help the chances of a deal with the EU being agreed.
Opponents seem to have been caught off guard and are spouting off about the prorogation that was threatened would happen, not the one that is actually being proposed.
The unelected Queen has confirmed that she is mandateless Boris Johnson’s parrot.
We need to take back control from our unelected rulers.
This is why the Queen will do whatever she can to stay above this very dangerous political fray.
Sadly Boris has introduced the monarchy into this mess. I don't see a problem while the Queen is alive but I suspect republican tendencies are going to increase as Charles takes over.
Quite right. It was disgraceful of Boris to embarrass HM in this way. But what can she do, when convention says she must follow the advice of her PM in such circumstances?
I do get the sense this is, as Shakespeare would term it, !much ado about nothing". The key timelines will be early September and then after mid October.
Those opposed to a No Deal Brexit have their opportunities - early next month or after Conference season. I imagine the Queen's Speech will essentially be the Conservative Manifesto for the next election and will stench of re-hashed Thatcherism. It really will be a case of firing up the Quattro as Boris takes us proudly forward to the 1980s with his unoriginal tosh.
The problem is Corbyn will march us forward to the 1970s with his return of union power and Stare control.
And the Lib Dems, what will they be proposing B2B or something more?
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table.
It's not just total chaos though, is it? It's total chaos, *which you can blame on foreigners*. And most of the Tory voters only need their pensions to get through plus minimal supermarket supplies and essential medicines, they don't care if some young person in an office somewhere can't do some kind of business thing.
What on earth makes people think that if it's "total chaos" food and medicine supplies will be magically unaffected?
The EU chap is probably spot on. This makes No Deal or Theresa's WA the only show in town. I doubt Boris has the stomach for the former, so we'll get the latter with his worshippers spinning that it's significantly different.
Some cosmetic changes to the deal, and parliament can finally finally choose whether we leave with a deal or without one.
Will remain inclined MPs vote against simply because the spartans in the Tory ranks are going to vote against again ? Are they that thick ?!
The EU chap is probably spot on. This makes No Deal or Theresa's WA the only show in town. I doubt Boris has the stomach for the former, so we'll get the latter with his worshippers spinning that it's significantly different.
Some cosmetic changes to the deal, and parliament can finally finally choose whether we leave with a deal or without one.
Will remain inclined MPs vote against simply because the spartans in the Tory ranks are going to vote against again ? Are they that thick ?!
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table.
It's not just total chaos though, is it? It's total chaos, *which you can blame on foreigners*. And most of the Tory voters only need their pensions to get through plus minimal supermarket supplies and essential medicines, they don't care if some young person in an office somewhere can't do some kind of business thing.
What on earth makes people think that if it's "total chaos" food and medicine supplies will be magically unaffected?
because they aren't that bright and don't think through what happens next
The EU chap is probably spot on. This makes No Deal or Theresa's WA the only show in town. I doubt Boris has the stomach for the former, so we'll get the latter with his worshippers spinning that it's significantly different.
Some cosmetic changes to the deal, and parliament can finally finally choose whether we leave with a deal or without one.
Will remain inclined MPs vote against simply because the spartans in the Tory ranks are going to vote against again ? Are they that thick ?!
QTWTAIY?
Looks good for twitter doesn't it, trooping through the No lobby to block a "hard Tory" Brexit even though the WA is nothing of the sort.
Baker and Redwood won't be able to believe their luck if it happens when they're amost literally at the final hour.
Comments
Today's Orders in Council.
Amusingly, Nicola Sturgeon is a PC. I wonder how she counsels HM the Q?
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1166707516509773824?s=20
https://www.republic.org.uk/join
https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1166579120085581824
I know you are a culture warrior that sees everything as a Manichean struggle between the forces of light and the forces of darkness. But you need to accept there are people who agree with you on some things to do with Brexit and not on others. This "if you're not with us you are against us" mindset is so destructive to this country.
I think in general, to Express myself less hyperbolically, there is significant doubt in the suicide narrative.
Anecdote alert. You may believe this or not and if you don't believe it, I will hold nothing against you as I cannot substantiate this nor will I provide more details for obvious reasons. Anyway, here goes.
I was chatting with an IT consultant friend in the UK yesterday. He's just landed a contract with a government department to procure and implement an IT system that will be vital for the UK outside the EU. The deadline for implementation is December 2020, i.e. the end of the transition period specified in May's WDA.
"What happens if the UK crashes out with no deal at the end of October?" I asked. "No idea," he replied, "Total chaos I guess."
So my takeaway is that no-deal is an empty threat and is off the table. (BTW, if I can find this out, then so can the EU, or wtf do the DGSE and BND do with all their Euros.) Also, even without the above, there is a lot of legislation that would need to be passed to get the laws in line for even a no-deal Brexit, and a prorogued Parliament can't pass any of it.
Here's what I think are the most likely outcomes:
1) Boris persuades Macron and Merkel to "drop" the backstop replacing it with something else. In fact, once all the froth and dribble has been removed, it will turn out to be the same WDA with the same backstop in practice as May's all along, but even if the ERG spot this, enough MPs will vote it through anyway. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 70%.
2) The EU won't blink at all, Boris submits May's WDA as is to Parliament and it passes - just. Likelihood of vote passing in these circumstances: 50%
(Both of above will probably require short A50 extension, to the end of year most likely, to get the necessary implementation legislation through Parliament.)
3) No WDA is passed by the last week of October. Boris reluctantly concedes to reality and revokes A50 as he has no other choice. However, most likely he immediately re-submits an A50 notification to reset the clock for another two years. Most likely a GE and/or second referendum follows.
Likelihood of A50 revocation in these circumstances: 100%.
*snigger*
But not so outrageous as having your 6 week holiday cut short.
Rank hypocrisy.
This will end very badly indeed.
We need to take back control from our unelected rulers.
Courts interpret legislation purposively. The purpose of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is clear, as is its structure. There's nothing much wrong with its drafting. The courts will do the necessary work to give effect to it if the Prime Minister decides to go further in trying to trash the constitution.
I've explained repeatedly why you're wrong on this point. You continue to mumble obvious nonsense. I ask again: why?
I wouldn't be surprised if they're bluffing but I don't see how anyone can be sure.
However, if it was the intention of those who want to remain to cancel the conference season why has no conference been cancelled
The history of WA votes is that they fall by way more than anyone expects.
The government want a VONC. Any fool can see that. They want a GE, but don't want to be seen calling it. If they don't get one, what happens? Your anecdote adds to the circumstantial evidence.
Beautiful.
Well, I'm sure there is hypocrisy somewhere.
I do get the sense this is, as Shakespeare would term it, !much ado about nothing". The key timelines will be early September and then after mid October.
Those opposed to a No Deal Brexit have their opportunities - early next month or after Conference season. I imagine the Queen's Speech will essentially be the Conservative Manifesto for the next election and will stench of re-hashed Thatcherism. It really will be a case of firing up the Quattro as Boris takes us proudly forward to the 1980s with his unoriginal tosh.
The problem is Corbyn will march us forward to the 1970s with his return of union power and Stare control.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1166713415424978945?s=20
'Parliamentary government is often frustrating. It brings together a cacophonous array of competing voices, with as many different opinions as there are citizens. It can be ponderous, verbose and slow to reach agreement. Yet such is the nature of a democratic society. In a complex, pluralistic state, the “will of the people” is not a single intelligence, issuing instructions to parliament; it is a negotiation between different voices and interests, who come together in our democratic institutions to “parley”.
Johnson is not the first to find this irksome. In the 1930s, as leader of the British Union of Fascists, Oswald Mosley struck out against “the false liberty of a few old men to talk for ever in the present parliamentary system”. He dreamed of a “government armed by the people with complete power of action”; dependent not on “the intrigues and manoeuvres of conflicting parties, but on the will of the nation directly expressed”. Britain rejected that road in the 1930s. It should do so again today.'
Even Leave voters barely support this suspension. But HYUFD will ignore this poll.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that this was a compromise between Number 10 and Buckingham Palace.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1166717448118296576
Maybe they'll live with a Brexit recession.
Maybe they won't.
Seems to me all the prorogation does is get the executive to the point where serious table banging can happen during the October EU summit - without the legislature fucking it up.
After all, the EU's side of the table will be H-U-G-E if we are to have all the Remainer MPs sat round it too.
And that will probably do it no favours in the medium term.
I have read your arguments and have found some of them of good but haven't been fully persuaded. It is possible I have just missed some as I am not on as much as you. For example, I had not seen your election point until this morning. If you don't like the perspectives made by other people, just move on and ignore them. It is really not hard. You don't have to be such a dick about things.
Opponents seem to have been caught off guard and are spouting off about the prorogation that was threatened would happen, not the one that is actually being proposed.
Will remain inclined MPs vote against simply because the spartans in the Tory ranks are going to vote against again ?
Are they that thick ?!
.
Baker and Redwood won't be able to believe their luck if it happens when they're amost literally at the final hour.