Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
The No Deal Establishment want No Deal. How long before everybody gets the message? There is much self-deception going on amongst opponents, particularly during the leadership campaign.
I have assumed that No Deal is irrational and that the only people actively desiring it was the small group of revolutionaries around Seamus Milne.
However, I am beginning to think you are right, because a No Deal offers the only chance of an emergency FTA of some description with Trump, and the concomitant perma-alignment with US policy interests.
Yes. I was once berated by some on here when I suggested there's long been a hidden agenda amongst elements of the euro-sceptic right to turn Britain in the 51st state. Well, that element now runs the British government and it isn't wasting any time.
The point is that Parliament had the chance to pass a deal which would have been the softest of Brexit's and failed to do so. Those MPs moaning about No Deal now when they voted against a very soft Brexit deal make me sick. What did they think was going to happen? Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn are the two worst offenders
It wasn’t the softest Brexit and they aren’t the culprits. Those responsible are the Tories who refused to participate in the indicative vote process and have shied away from taking decisive action against (or to pre-empt) their new leadership whilst continuing to wring their hands on public about the risks of no deal.
Labour could have voted for it, they didn't. The Tories were always going to lurch to the right if the deal failed to go through. Labour voted against the deal for electoral gain. How did that plan go?
Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
Anyone with half a sense of history knows that the executive suspending the legislature to enforce what it interprets as being “the will of the people” will shudder in fear at reading your post.
As soon as a choice between more than two simple alternatives is involved, there is often no clear answer to the question of what a majority favours. Moreover, because governments have to interpret the results of referendums, the will of the people becomes a means for strengthening executive control – the exact opposite of what appealing to the people’s will seemed to imply.
If Boris prorogues Parliament because of his interpretation of “the will of the people” a horrible precedent will be set. He will be saying that his authority comes from a source superior to Parliament and only he can interpret what that is. It is essentially fascism.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is heading for the biggest Tory victory over Labour and Tory election triumph since Thatcher's 1987 win. Corbyn Labour is heading for humiliation and an even worse result in voteshare than Foot in 1983 with the LDs snapping at their heels.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
The No Deal Establishment want No Deal. How long before everybody gets the message? There is much self-deception going on amongst opponents, particularly during the leadership campaign.
I have assumed that No Deal is irrational and that the only people actively desiring it was the small group of revolutionaries around Seamus Milne.
However, I am beginning to think you are right, because a No Deal offers the only chance of an emergency FTA of some description with Trump, and the concomitant perma-alignment with US policy interests.
Yes. I was once berated by some on here when I suggested there's long been a hidden agenda amongst elements of the euro-sceptic right to turn Britain in the 51st state. Well, that element now runs the British government and it isn't wasting any time.
The point is that Parliament had the chance to pass a deal which would have been the softest of Brexit's and failed to do so. Those MPs moaning about No Deal now when they voted against a very soft Brexit deal make me sick. What did they think was going to happen? Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn are the two worst offenders
It wasn’t the softest Brexit and they aren’t the culprits. Those responsible are the Tories who refused to participate in the indicative vote process and have shied away from taking decisive action against (or to pre-empt) their new leadership whilst continuing to wring their hands on public about the risks of no deal.
Labour could have voted for it, they didn't. The Tories were always going to lurch to the right if the deal failed to go through. Labour voted against the deal for electoral gain. How did that plan go?
For the LibDems it’s going remarkably well.
That depends. Were the LibDems seeking cynical electoral gain or to keep us aligned closely with Europe. May's deal did the latter, rejecting it did the former.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
These Brexiteers want No Deal or nothing. They have gone mad. They are willing to inflict economic catastrophe on 100,000s of people across the UK for a stupid fantasy. And a fantasy that was not even mentioned during the campaign.
The most dangerous people to have served as MPs in generations.
It is not holds bar now. These people must be stopped no matter what cost to the Tory party.
The No Deal Establishment want No Deal. How long before everybody gets the message? There is much self-deception going on amongst opponents, particularly during the leadership campaign.
I have assumed that No Deal is irrational and that the only people actively desiring it was the small group of revolutionaries around Seamus Milne.
However, I am beginning to think you are right, because a No Deal offers the only chance of an emergency FTA of some description with Trump, and the concomitant perma-alignment with US policy interests.
Yes. I was once berated by some on here when I suggested there's long been a hidden agenda amongst elements of the euro-sceptic right to turn Britain in the 51st state. Well, that element now runs the British government and it isn't wasting any time.
The point is that Parliament had the chance to pass a deal which would have been the softest of Brexit's and failed to do so. Those MPs moaning about No Deal now when they voted against a very soft Brexit deal make me sick. What did they think was going to happen? Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn are the two worst offenders
It wasn’t the softest Brexit and they aren’t the culprits. Those responsible are the Tories who refused to participate in the indicative vote process and have shied away from taking decisive action against (or to pre-empt) their new leadership whilst continuing to wring their hands on public about the risks of no deal.
Labour could have voted for it, they didn't. The Tories were always going to lurch to the right if the deal failed to go through. Labour voted against the deal for electoral gain. How did that plan go?
For the LibDems it’s going remarkably well.
Exactly, Labours plan was to gobble up all the Remain voters and keep their Leave voters by voting against the Deal by claiming that they could get a better deal, even though they could not be clear what this "better" deal was and by the leaving the idea that they might turn into a Remain party at some point in the future. It was a nonsensical idea and it has failed miserably.
While politics nerds like us know that the Greens are essentially Corbynite in policy terms (to the point that I don't get why they split the vote in Labour marginals), I know quite a few Tories who are willing to vote Green but not LibDem. In non-urban seats they see the LibDems as the arch-rivals, but the Greens as harmless anti-Brexit tree-huggers. It'd be interesting to see some polling on this for supporters of the main parties - "Would you consider voting for LibDems? For Greens?" I suspect the Greens may be surprisingly transfer-friendly.
Yes, you might be right on that.
And when you meet Green Party activists most of them are more like the eccentric tree-huggers than the revolutionary thugs within Labour.
It is standard Labour trope that they cannot understand why the Greens are not part of their party and their vote. They've been saying this for decades.
Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
Hypothetical question for you, HYUFD - if circumstances came about that there was another referendum before we had left the EU, and if that referendum showed a majority for remain and therefore we remained, would you view that as a democratic outcome, or a denial of democracy?
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
With Corbyn it might be an underestimate.
Also since Boris became PM every poll has a conservative lead, 3 with 10%
With the momentum form today's by-election the LDs might soon overtake Labour in the polls. Personally I think they are almost as uselesss under the current leadership but Labour are certainly also facing a challenging few weeks.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...
The more No Deal looks like the only game in town, the greater the chance of Revocation. Bozo, Raaaab and the ERG are playing into the hands of the Remainers.
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
With Corbyn it might be an underestimate.
Also since Boris became PM every poll has a conservative lead, 3 with 10%
I am not so sure about that. If people don't think he will win but want to stop Boris winning the same dynamic that gave a hung parliament in 2017 could happen again. Indeed, I could be persuaded to vote tactically to stop the Tories with No Deal Boris at the helm...
Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
Hypothetical question for you, HYUFD - if circumstances came about that there was another referendum before we had left the EU, and if that referendum showed a majority for remain and therefore we remained, would you view that as a democratic outcome, or a denial of democracy?
As a remainer himself, HY would probably be voting Remain again, although this time with the sense to keep it to himself.
At which point, Parliament would reconvene next door, and VONC him.
Is that allowed?
I think the only person who can dissolve Parliament is the Crown. But I think Parliament does not need the Crown's permission to reconstitute itself. If Parliament has the balls it can - entirely legally - tell Boris to Arkell Vs Pressdram.
Under the notion of 'Parliament meeting next door', Parliament can only meet if they have the Mace right? Who controls the Mace? If its Speaker Bercow then I'm sure he'll be happy to call a session of Parliament elsewhere. If its JRM or someone else, that's unlikely.
At which point, Parliament would reconvene next door, and VONC him.
Is that allowed?
I think the only person who can dissolve Parliament is the Crown. But I think Parliament does not need the Crown's permission to reconstitute itself. If Parliament has the balls it can - entirely legally - tell Boris to Arkell Vs Pressdram.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The LDs are much closer to Labour than Labour are to the Tories with Mori today
Not really accurate in that the Government's majority only disappears on the basis of Elphicke being counted as an Independent who would oppose the Government. In truth, he would not!
Under the notion of 'Parliament meeting next door', Parliament can only meet if they have the Mace right? Who controls the Mace? If its Speaker Bercow then I'm sure he'll be happy to call a session of Parliament elsewhere. If its JRM or someone else, that's unlikely.
Speaker I believe. Serjeant at Arms carries it in.
The No Deal Establishment want No Deal. How long before everybody gets the message? There is much self-deception going on amongst opponents, particularly during the leadership campaign.
I have assumed that No Deal is irrational and that the only people actively desiring it was the small group of revolutionaries around Seamus Milne.
However, I am beginning to think you are right, because a No Deal offers the only chance of an emergency FTA of some description with Trump, and the concomitant perma-alignment with US policy interests.
I think you have nailed it. Their idea of Taking Back Control is to take it back and then hand it to our American Cousins, who really will treat us as a vassal state.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...
On today's Mori the Tories would gain almost 50 Labour marginal seats on the 4% swing since 2017 to the Tories it suggests, Labour safe seats might fall to the LDs or Brexit Party anyway even if not the Tories on today's poll
Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
Anyone with half a sense of history knows that the executive suspending the legislature to enforce what it interprets as being “the will of the people” will shudder in fear at reading your post.
As soon as a choice between more than two simple alternatives is involved, there is often no clear answer to the question of what a majority favours. Moreover, because governments have to interpret the results of referendums, the will of the people becomes a means for strengthening executive control – the exact opposite of what appealing to the people’s will seemed to imply.
If Boris prorogues Parliament because of his interpretation of “the will of the people” a horrible precedent will be set. He will be saying that his authority comes from a source superior to Parliament and only he can interpret what that is. It is essentially fascism.
If we are going to leave with No Deal, then in a sense the more dubious the legality of the government's actions the better, because at least that provides a prospect of justice for the victims and punishment of the guilty at a later date.
Not really accurate in that the Government's majority only disappears on the basis of Elphicke being counted as an Independent who would oppose the Government. In truth, he would not!
Though Grieve should follow him out the door. Good riddance.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
With Corbyn it might be an underestimate.
Also since Boris became PM every poll has a conservative lead, 3 with 10%
I am not so sure about that. If people don't think he will win but want to stop Boris winning the same dynamic that gave a hung parliament in 2017 could happen again. Indeed, I could be persuaded to vote tactically to stop the Tories with No Deal Boris at the helm...
To be fair I am only commenting on the evidence of polling since Boris became PM to today.
The trend for Boris is rising but of course anything can happen in this febrile period as we move forward
I think that the Democrats will choose a moderate. I think they're terrified of losing to Trump again.
That is what gives Biden his "edge". He's seen as a moderate. He's gets a glow from Obama. He's inoffensive at a time when Trump is extremely offensive.
But he's not the only moderate in this race. Harris is moderately popular because she's a moderate who can remember how the sentance she just started speaking is supposed to end.
Currently, there are 20 Democratic candidates getting invited to debates. Next month, September, it will be 8 to 10. That means that half the Democratic field will be gone. It means there will only be one debate to wade through. It means that Biden and Warren and Harris and co will all be together on the same night.
It also means that the second tier candidates who make it through get a boost. Who is moderate, who is telegenic, who is articulate, who is not suffering from the early stages of alzheimers, who has not gotten much attention to date, who has proven appeal in the rust belt?
Step forward Amy Klow.. Klu... Klo... the Senator from Minnesota who eats salads with a comb.
She's almost certainly through to the next round. She's moderate. She's from a state Trump nearly won. She's about a gazillion to one.
I would personally put small sums on the three or four candidates outside the top four and a half who are going to make it to the next tier of debates. That means O'Rourke, Booker and Kloubacher for certain and maybe even Yang or Castro.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
"The bastards" on John Major's era at least respected democracy and voted to give Major Confidence and ratified Maastricht as much as they despised it.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
Hypothetical question for you, HYUFD - if circumstances came about that there was another referendum before we had left the EU, and if that referendum showed a majority for remain and therefore we remained, would you view that as a democratic outcome, or a denial of democracy?
A democratic outcome just about if a pro EUref2 party won a general election beforehand but only then, however if the first Brexit vote was never implemented why would you ever bother voting in a future referendum again? EUref2 after a few years of Brexit maybe, EUref2 before the result of the first referendum has been respected is not really democratic
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote. The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
The Brady amendment was just cover for Tory MPs pretending they were voting for something that in reality was never on the table.
"The bastards" on John Major's era at least respected democracy and voted to give Major Confidence and ratified Maastricht as much as they despised it.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Focus on the backstop is a distraction. The Establishment wants No Deal.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...
On today's Mori the Tories would gain almost 50 Labour marginal seats on the 4% swing since 2017 to the Tories it suggests, Labour safe seats might fall to the LDs or Brexit Party anyway even if not the Tories on today's poll
You do realise that the 50 seats you mention that the Tories could gain from Labour were probably target seats in 2017. By this I mean they had CCHQ communications/resources/activity focused on them. The point being if they could not win them in 2017 I doubt they will win them in 2019 even under BJ who is less popular than May was in 2017 if you compare the two. There is a difference between a paper target and a real target effort you know? If the Tories are in the low 30's they are also susceptible to the LD and SNP picking off seats.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Focus on the backstop is a distraction. The Establishment wants No Deal.
"The bastards" on John Major's era at least respected democracy and voted to give Major Confidence and ratified Maastricht as much as they despised it.
Lee is worse than The Bastards.
Yet he’s one of the good guys.
Define good.
He lost the referendum. His side lost the leadership election. He respects democracy as long as he gets what he wants only.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Focus on the backstop is a distraction. The Establishment wants No Deal.
The Establishment wants No Brexit at all
I am loving how a government led by an old Etonian is not the establishment!!!
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Focus on the backstop is a distraction. The Establishment wants No Deal.
The Establishment wants No Brexit at all
This is a pointless argument to have as you are never going to agree.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Focus on the backstop is a distraction. The Establishment wants No Deal.
The Establishment wants No Brexit at all
So the government of the UK is not the Establishment?
I think that the Democrats will choose a moderate. I think they're terrified of losing to Trump again.
That is what gives Biden his "edge". He's seen as a moderate. He's gets a glow from Obama. He's inoffensive at a time when Trump is extremely offensive.
But he's not the only moderate in this race. Harris is moderately popular because she's a moderate who can remember how the sentance she just started speaking is supposed to end.
Currently, there are 20 Democratic candidates getting invited to debates. Next month, September, it will be 8 to 10. That means that half the Democratic field will be gone. It means there will only be one debate to wade through. It means that Biden and Warren and Harris and co will all be together on the same night.
It also means that the second tier candidates who make it through get a boost. Who is moderate, who is telegenic, who is articulate, who is not suffering from the early stages of alzheimers, who has not gotten much attention to date, who has proven appeal in the rust belt?
Step forward Amy Klow.. Klu... Klo... the Senator from Minnesota who eats salads with a comb.
She's almost certainly through to the next round. She's moderate. She's from a state Trump nearly won. She's about a gazillion to one.
I would personally put small sums on the three or four candidates outside the top four and a half who are going to make it to the next tier of debates. That means O'Rourke, Booker and Kloubacher for certain and maybe even Yang or Castro.
How much cash does the Klob have left ? A serious consideration now for any candidates who have no certainty of staying in beyond September. A deficit can be a weighty impediment to a continuing political career.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...
On today's Mori the Tories would gain almost 50 Labour marginal seats on the 4% swing since 2017 to the Tories it suggests, Labour safe seats might fall to the LDs or Brexit Party anyway even if not the Tories on today's poll
You do realise that the 50 seats you mention that the Tories could gain from Labour were probably target seats in 2017. By this I mean they had CCHQ communications/resources/activity focused on them. The point being if they could not win them in 2017 I doubt they will win them in 2019 even under BJ who is less popular than May was in 2017 if you compare the two. There is a difference between a paper target and a real target effort you know? If the Tories are in the low 30's they are also susceptible to the LD and SNP picking off seats.
The point is not the absolute level of Con support, it is the relative level in comparison to the parties in 2nd, 3rd,4th place. If Con has a lead and the opposition is split, then Con wins even with a low vote.
"The bastards" on John Major's era at least respected democracy and voted to give Major Confidence and ratified Maastricht as much as they despised it.
Lee is worse than The Bastards.
Lee could be a hero as could some of his like minded colleagues who if they do the right thing will go down in history as saviors of the UK
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over n-a4203251.html
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Partyn.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...
On today's Mori the Tories would gain almost 50 Labour marginal seats on the 4% swing since 2017 to the Tories it suggests, Labour safe seats might fall to the LDs or Brexit Party anyway even if not the Tories on today's poll
You do realise that the 50 seats you mention that the Tories could gain from Labour were probably target seats in 2017. By this I mean they had CCHQ communications/resources/activity focused on them. The point being if they could not win them in 2017 I doubt they will win them in 2019 even under BJ who is less popular than May was in 2017 if you compare the two. There is a difference between a paper target and a real target effort you know? If the Tories are in the low 30's they are also susceptible to the LD and SNP picking off seats.
Actually many of them like Dagenham, Bolsover, Barrow etc were Leave seats which swung to the Tories in 2017 as long shots and are now marginal and will be heavily targeted while Remain seats like Ilford North and Enfield North and Westminster North are no longer marginal and will not be targeted, so on the large 4% swing to the Tories from Labour today post 2017 they would of course fall to the Tories backed up by proper resources and they also include Leave seats like Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Lincoln, Keighley, Canterbury etc the Tories won in 2015 but narrowly lost in 2017.
On today's poll the Tories would lose less than 15 seats to the LDs and at most 10 to the SNP which with the close to 50 seat gain the poll suggests from Labour is a net gain of about 25 for the Tories overall giving a clear Boris majority
"The bastards" on John Major's era at least respected democracy and voted to give Major Confidence and ratified Maastricht as much as they despised it.
Lee is worse than The Bastards.
Lee could be a hero as could some of his like minded colleagues who if they do the right thing will go down in history as saviors of the UK
If the UK can only be saved by spurning the voters, the UK does not deserve to be saved.
The voters come first. Implement what they voted for.
Six years ago there were three. With Clegg included there are now five, an increase of 67%. The reported increase of 80% is only slightly above that. Non-story.
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote. The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.
Although Mark Francois is indeed a prize idiot, he's probably right that the Withdrawal Agreement wouldn't pass even if the backstop were chopped out. Certainly the 'Spartans' will continue to vote against it, so it would take a fairly large group of Labour MPs to vote in favour to get it through. That really doesn't look likely:
But but but, HYUFD has assured us that Parliament has already voted for the WA minus the backstop!!!
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The Brady amendment showed there is a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop in the Commons, whatever Francois says he is just as much a fanatic as Grieve
Focus on the backstop is a distraction. The Establishment wants No Deal.
The Establishment wants No Brexit at all
So the government of the UK is not the Establishment?
The Establishment is the civil service and big business which are anti hard Brexit, Boris has to fight the establishment to deliver Brexit
I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
"The bastards" on John Major's era at least respected democracy and voted to give Major Confidence and ratified Maastricht as much as they despised it.
Lee is worse than The Bastards.
Lee could be a hero as could some of his like minded colleagues who if they do the right thing will go down in history as saviors of the UK
If the UK can only be saved by spurning the voters, the UK does not deserve to be saved.
The voters come first. Implement what they voted for.
Not if it is crass stupidity, we pay MPs to save us fro ourselves not implement our wishes.
Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn Labour
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...
A 10% Tory lead would imply a clear majority , but HYUFD is exaggerating somewhat. It implies a swing in their favour of 3.75% - not 4% - and 35 gains from Labour - not 50.The Tory lead in 2017 GE was 2.5%. Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote. The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov so they can
I have to go back to work, so enough of the dick jokes for the mo'. Before I go, b&r tonight. Over the past few days there have been rumblings: the LDs are not playing to their strengths and are dispirited. Is there any data, such as leaks from postal vote sampling or canvassing, that a surprise win for the Con is on tonight?
The article says that it's now 5 - 4 ex leaders "as well as the former deputy PM Sir Nick Clegg".
WTAF is Vice President of Global Affairs and Communications at Facebook having his office supported by the British taxpayer?
I believe that the arrangement has ended now that he is gainfully employed at Facebook.
Then why does the government website think he's cost more than Cameron in the past year, when he got his job at Facebook in Oct 18?
£ 2018-19 2017-18 The Rt Hon. Sir John Major 114,935 115,000 The Rt Hon. Tony Blair 115,000 115,000 The Rt Hon. Gordon Brown 114,057 114,920 The Rt Hon. David Cameron 110,413 111,544 The Rt Hon. Sir Nick Clegg 112,882 115,000 Staff pension costs 21,425 39,524 Total 588,712 610,988
What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place. Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote. The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they can
@rottenborough , this is the only candidate who can beat Trump?
Biden is the only shot the Dems have got of beating Trump.
With all due respect, that is absolute horse shit.
Where is the evidence that people want a Presidential candidate who is unable to remember how the sentence he just started is supposed to end?
So, who can beat Trump then? I just think all the others are a risk on that one question.
An American presidential candidate can be deeply flawed, obviously, but if he can at least give the impression of being one of the good ole boys, he has a chance.
One word seems almost tailor made for this rule - I shall christen this The Covfefe Principle.
I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
Centrist Remainers voted for Corbyn in 2017 which was the only reason he got close thinking he would stop Brexit, they will not make the same mistake again but vote LD.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare. The European elections showed Labour reduced to a socialist rump in a few inner cities with the LDs the main centre left party elsewhere in most of the UK. Labour has not learnt the lesson as Corbyn is still in place while the Tories picked Boris to win back Brexit Party voters.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power
Comments
As soon as a choice between more than two simple alternatives is involved, there is often no clear answer to the question of what a majority favours. Moreover, because governments have to interpret the results of referendums, the will of the people becomes a means for strengthening executive control – the exact opposite of what appealing to the people’s will seemed to imply.
If Boris prorogues Parliament because of his interpretation of “the will of the people” a horrible precedent will be set. He will be saying that his authority comes from a source superior to Parliament and only he can interpret what that is. It is essentially fascism.
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
Also since Boris became PM every poll has a conservative lead, 3 with 10%
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/8/1/senior-mps-rubbish-claim-that-labour-rebels-would-help-boris-johnson-pass-a-brexit-deal
The trend for Boris is rising but of course anything can happen in this febrile period as we move forward
Well, yes, obviously. Of course I could.
Am I wrong?
I think that the Democrats will choose a moderate. I think they're terrified of losing to Trump again.
That is what gives Biden his "edge". He's seen as a moderate. He's gets a glow from Obama. He's inoffensive at a time when Trump is extremely offensive.
But he's not the only moderate in this race. Harris is moderately popular because she's a moderate who can remember how the sentance she just started speaking is supposed to end.
Currently, there are 20 Democratic candidates getting invited to debates. Next month, September, it will be 8 to 10. That means that half the Democratic field will be gone. It means there will only be one debate to wade through. It means that Biden and Warren and Harris and co will all be together on the same night.
It also means that the second tier candidates who make it through get a boost. Who is moderate, who is telegenic, who is articulate, who is not suffering from the early stages of alzheimers, who has not gotten much attention to date, who has proven appeal in the rust belt?
Step forward Amy Klow.. Klu... Klo... the Senator from Minnesota who eats salads with a comb.
She's almost certainly through to the next round. She's moderate. She's from a state Trump nearly won. She's about a gazillion to one.
I would personally put small sums on the three or four candidates outside the top four and a half who are going to make it to the next tier of debates. That means O'Rourke, Booker and Kloubacher for certain and maybe even Yang or Castro.
Lee is worse than The Bastards.
Except of course the rest of us know that a large number of people voted for that without really meaning it. And would not do so again now that Johnson has promised no deal. In fact it would be a interesting gamble for the EU to actually remove the backstop and watch it voted down anyway.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
Where is the evidence that people want a Presidential candidate who is unable to remember how the sentence he just started is supposed to end?
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Yet he’s one of the good guys.
He lost the referendum. His side lost the leadership election. He respects democracy as long as he gets what he wants only.
A serious consideration now for any candidates who have no certainty of staying in beyond September. A deficit can be a weighty impediment to a continuing political career.
I must have missed that!
On today's poll the Tories would lose less than 15 seats to the LDs and at most 10 to the SNP which with the close to 50 seat gain the poll suggests from Labour is a net gain of about 25 for the Tories overall giving a clear Boris majority
The voters come first. Implement what they voted for.
Nous ne sommes rien, soyons tout.
It is supposed to read ", and Nick Clegg"
WTAF is Vice President of Global Affairs and Communications at Facebook having his office supported by the British taxpayer?
[Innocent face]
Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.
£ 2018-19 2017-18
The Rt Hon. Sir John Major 114,935 115,000
The Rt Hon. Tony Blair 115,000 115,000
The Rt Hon. Gordon Brown 114,057 114,920
The Rt Hon. David Cameron 110,413 111,544
The Rt Hon. Sir Nick Clegg 112,882 115,000
Staff pension costs 21,425 39,524
Total 588,712 610,988
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/819295/page_85_public_duty_cost_allowance.csv/preview
One word seems almost tailor made for this rule - I shall christen this The Covfefe Principle.
Biden possesses Covfefe.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare. The European elections showed Labour reduced to a socialist rump in a few inner cities with the LDs the main centre left party elsewhere in most of the UK. Labour has not learnt the lesson as Corbyn is still in place while the Tories picked Boris to win back Brexit Party voters.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power